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| Available in | English |
|---|---|
| Owner | Martin Baxter |
| URL | electoralcalculus |
| Commercial | Yes |
| Registration | No |
| Current status | Online |
Electoral Calculus is a political forecasting website that attempts to predict future United Kingdom general election results. It considers national factors and local demographics.
Electoral Calculus was developed by Martin Baxter, [1] who was a financial analyst specialising in mathematical modelling. [2] The site includes maps, predictions and analysis articles. It has separate sections for elections in Scotland and in Northern Ireland. [3]
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The site is based around the employment of scientific techniques on data about the United Kingdom's electoral geography, [1] which can be used to calculate the uniform national swing. [4] It takes account of national polls and trends but excludes local issues. [5]
The calculations were initially based on what is termed the Transition Model, which is derived from the additive uniform national swing model. This uses national swings in a proportional manner to predict local effects. [6] The Strong Transition Model was introduced in October 2007, and considers the effects of strong and weak supporters. [7] The models are explained in detail on the web site. [6]
Across the eight general elections from 1992 to 2019, the site correctly predicted the party to win the most seats in seven out of eight (all except 1992). They also correctly predicted the outcome, that is, the party winning a majority or a hung parliament, in five elections (majority for 1997, 2001, 2005, 2019; no majority for 2010). The mean polling error for the two largest parties was 4.8%. [8] [ non-primary source needed ]
In 2004, the site was listed by The Guardian as one of the "100 most useful websites", being "the best" for predictions. [9] With reference to the 2010 United Kingdom general election, it was cited by journalists Andrew Rawnsley [10] and Michael White of The Guardian. [11] John Rentoul of The Independent referred to the site after the election. [12]
Nigel Martin Evans is a British Conservative Party politician serving as the Member of Parliament (MP) for Ribble Valley in Lancashire since 1992. He was Joint Executive Secretary of the 1922 Committee from 2017 to 2019. He served as First Deputy Chairman of Ways and Means, one of the Speaker's three deputies, from 2010 to 2013. He was elected as Second Deputy Chairman of Ways and Means in 2020.
Sir Roger James Gale is a British Conservative politician who has served as the Member of Parliament (MP) for North Thanet since 1983. He had a career in journalism and broadcasting from 1964, around the same time as he joined the Conservative Party, until 1983. He was a prominent and vocal critic of Boris Johnson during his leadership of the Conservative Party.
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Washington and Sunderland West was a constituency in Tyne and Wear represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament since its 2010 creation by Sharon Hodgson, a member of the Labour Party.
In the run-up to the general election of 2010, several polling organisations carried out opinion polling in regards to voting intention in Great Britain. Results of such polls are displayed below.
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An independent UK election prediction site maintained by Martin Baxter. He attempts to apply scientific techniques to the electoral geography of Britain to predict the future general election results.
The different formulas used by Electoral Calculus and Swingo both translate a six-point Tory poll lead into a Commons in which the Conservatives are short of a majority.
How is Cameron 'winning' when Tory share of the vote is – on current measure – about 1% to 1.5% up on 2005 (source Electoral Calculus)?