Uniform national swing, or UNS is a system for translating opinion polls, which give overall vote proportions, to expected eventual parliamentary seats in a constituency based first past the post system, as in the UK general elections. Under the uniform national swing, changes in the vote proportions (swing) since the previous election are assumed to be constant across all constituencies. By applying this change to the previous per-constituency based vote proportions, a prediction for which party would have the most votes in each constituency may be made, which is then counted and totalled for a final seat count.
Alternative methods exist, such as the proportional national swing system. However, UNS has proven acceptably accurate in the past, and so is commonly used in UK media for seat count predictions.
Proportional representation (PR) refers to a type of electoral system under which subgroups of an electorate are reflected proportionately in the elected body. The concept applies mainly to political divisions among voters. The essence of such systems is that all votes cast – or almost all votes cast – contribute to the result and are effectively used to help elect someone – not just a bare plurality or (exclusively) the majority – and that the system produces mixed, balanced representation reflecting how votes are cast.
The additional-member system (AMS) is a mixed electoral system under which most representatives are elected in single-member districts (SMDs), and the other "additional members" are elected to make the seat distribution in the chamber more proportional to the way votes are cast for party lists. It is distinct from parallel voting in that the "additional member" seats are awarded to parties taking into account seats won in SMDs, which is not done under parallel voting.
The 1999 European Parliament election was the United Kingdom's part of the European Parliament election 1999. It was held on 10 June 1999. Following the European Parliamentary Elections Act 1999, it was the first European election to be held in the United Kingdom where the whole country used a system of proportional representation. In total, 87 Members of the European Parliament were elected from the United Kingdom across twelve new regional constituencies.
An electoral swing analysis shows the extent of change in voter support, typically from one election to another, expressed as a positive or negative percentage. A multi-party swing is an indicator of a change in the electorate's preference between candidates or parties, often between major parties in a two-party system. A swing can be calculated for the electorate as a whole, for a given electoral district or for a particular demographic.
Weaver Vale is a constituency in Cheshire represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament since 2017 by Mike Amesbury, a member of the Labour Party.
Harrow West is a constituency in Greater London created in 1945 and represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament. Until 1997, it only returned Conservative MPs; since then, it has elected the Labour Co-operative MP Gareth Thomas on a fluctuating majority. Since 2010, this has been bolstered by the loss of Pinner from the seat and the gain of a favourable ward for Labour from Harrow East.
The 2010 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday 6 May 2010, with 45,597,461 registered voters entitled to vote to elect members to the House of Commons. The election took place in 650 constituencies across the United Kingdom under the first-past-the-post system.
Washington and Sunderland West is a constituency represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament since its 2010 creation by Sharon Hodgson, a member of the Labour Party.
Meon Valley is a parliamentary constituency in Hampshire represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament by Flick Drummond, a Conservative, since 2019. It had previously been represented since its 2010 creation by George Hollingbery.
The term swing refers to the extent of change in voter support, typically from one election or opinion poll to another, expressed as a positive or negative percentage point. For the Australian House of Representatives and the lower houses of the parliaments of all the states and territories except Tasmania and the ACT, Australia employs preferential voting in single-member constituencies. Under the full-preference instant-runoff voting system, in each seat the candidate with the lowest vote is eliminated and their preferences are distributed, which is repeated until only two candidates remain. While every seat has a two-candidate preferred (TCP) result, seats where the major parties have come first and second are commonly referred to as having a two-party-preferred (TPP) result. The concept of "swing" in Australian elections is not simply a function of the difference between the votes of the two leading candidates, as it is in Britain. To know the majority of any seat, and therefore the swing necessary for it to change hands, it is necessary to know the preferences of all the voters, regardless of their first preference votes. It is not uncommon in Australia for candidates who have comfortable leads on the first count to fail to win the seat, because "preference flows" go against them.
Wandsworth Central was a parliamentary constituency in the Wandsworth district of South London. It returned one Member of Parliament (MP) to the House of Commons of the Parliament of the United Kingdom, elected by the first-past-the-post voting system.
Blaenau Gwent is a constituency of the Senedd. It elects one Member of the Senedd by the first past the post method of election. Also, however, it is one of eight constituencies in the South Wales East electoral region, which elects four additional members, in addition to eight constituency members, to produce a degree of proportional representation for the region as a whole.
The 2007 Scottish Parliament election was held on Thursday 3 May 2007 to elect members to the Scottish Parliament. It was the third general election to the devolved Scottish Parliament since it was created in 1999. Local elections in Scotland fell on the same day.
In the run-up to the general election of 2010, several polling organisations carried out opinion polling in regards to voting intention in Great Britain. Results of such polls are displayed below.
Swing, in the politics of the United Kingdom, is a number used as an indication of the scale of voter change between two political parties. It originated as a mathematical calculation for comparing the results of two Parliamentary constituencies. The UK uses a first-past-the-post voting system. The swing is the percentage of voter support minus the comparative percentage of voter support corresponding to the same electorate or demographic.
Electoral Calculus is a political forecasting web site that attempts to predict future United Kingdom general election results. It considers national factors and local demographics.
In the run up to the general election of 2005, several polling organisations carried out opinion polling in regards to voting intention in Great Britain. Results of such polls are displayed below.
General elections were held in Singapore on Friday, 11 September 2015 to elect 89 members of Parliament. The outgoing Parliament had been dissolved and the general election called by President Tony Tan on 25 August, on the advice of Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. The elections were for the 13th Parliament since independence in 1965, using the first-past-the-post electoral system.
In the run-up to the general election on 8 June 2017, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.
The next Scottish Parliament election is due to be held on Thursday 7 May 2026 to elect 129 members to the Scottish Parliament. It will be the seventh general election since the devolved parliament was established in 1999.
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