2015 United Kingdom general election in England

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2015 United Kingdom general election in England
Flag of England.svg
  2010 7 May 2015 (2015-05-07) 2017  

All 533 English seats to the House of Commons
267 seats needed for English majority
Turnout65.9% (Increase2.svg0.4 pp)
 First partySecond partyThird party
 
David Cameron official.jpg
Ed Miliband election infobox.jpg
Nick Clegg official portrait.jpg
Leader David Cameron Ed Miliband Nick Clegg
Party Conservative Labour Liberal Democrats
Leader since 6 December 2005 25 September 2010 18 December 2007
Leader's seat Witney Doncaster North Sheffield Hallam
Last election297 seats, 39.5%191 seats, 28.1%43 seats, 24.2%
Seats won318*2066
Seat changeIncrease2.svg21Increase2.svg15Decrease2.svg37
Popular vote10,483,2618,087,7062,098,430
Percentage40.9%31.6%8.2%
SwingIncrease2.svg1.4 pp Increase2.svg3.6 pp Decrease2.svg16.0 pp

2015UKElectionMapEngland.svg
A map of English parliamentary constituencies
*Seat figure does not include the Speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow, who was included in the Conservative seat total by some media outlets.

The 2015 United Kingdom general election in England was held on Thursday, 7 May 2015 for 533 English seats to the House of Commons. The Conservatives won a majority of seats in England for the second time since 1992.

Contents

Both major parties made gains at the expense of the Liberal Democrats, whose support collapsed to its lowest level since 1970. Their vote share declined by 16 percentage points, and the party lost 37 of its 43 seats. The party won 6 seats and 8% of the vote overall. This was the worst result for the Lib Dems or the Liberals in 45 years, while the 16-point drop in vote share was the biggest decline in Lib Dem or Liberal support since 1931.

Although Labour increased their share of the vote by 4% and gained 15 seats, the Conservatives made 21 gains for a total of 318, including winning 6 seats directly from Labour. Together with seats from Scotland and Wales, this allowed the Conservatives to form a majority government with 330 seats, leading to the first majority Conservative government since 1992.

Political context

The general election was fought with the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats having been in coalition since 2010, with Labour being the main opposition, though with the Conservatives holding the majority of English seats. It was also fought following the victory of the UK Independence Party at the European Parliament Elections and in two by-elections the year before, along with George Galloway of the Respect Party having won the 2012 Bradford West by-election from Labour.

Results summary

Party [1] SeatsAggregate Votes
TotalGainsLossesNet +/-Of all (%)TotalOf all (%)Difference
Conservative 3183211Increase2.svg2159.710,483,26140.9Increase2.svg1.4
Labour 206216Increase2.svg1538.68,087,68431.6Increase2.svg3.6
UKIP 110Increase2.svg10.23,611,36714.1Increase2.svg10.7
Liberal Democrats 6037Decrease2.svg371.12,098,4048.2Decrease2.svg16.0
Green 100Steady2.svg0.21,073,2424.2Increase2.svg3.2
Speaker 100Steady2.svg0.234,6170.1Steady2.svg
TUSC 000Steady2.svg32,8680.1Increase2.svg0.1
NHA 000Steady2.svg20,2100.1New
Respect 000Steady2.svg9,9890.0Decrease2.svg0.1
Yorkshire First 000Steady2.svg6,8110.0New
English Democrat 000Steady2.svg6,4310.0Decrease2.svg0.2
CISTA 000Steady2.svg4,5690.0New
Monster Raving Loony 000Steady2.svg3,4320.0Steady2.svg
CPA 000Steady2.svg3,2600.0Steady2.svg
BNP 000Steady2.svg1,6670.0Decrease2.svg2.1
Class War 000Steady2.svg5260.0New
Other parties000Steady2.svg127,1330.5Decrease2.svg0.2
Total53325,571,20465.9Increase2.svg0.4
Popular vote
Conservative
40.9%
Labour
31.6%
UKIP
14.1%
Liberal Democrats
8.2%
Green
4.2%
Other
0.9%
Parliament seats
Conservative
59.7%
Labour
38.6%
Liberal Democrats
1.1%
UKIP
0.2%
Green
0.2%
Speaker
0.2%

Analysis

The Conservatives emerged as the largest party, increasing both their seats and votes. They took seats both from the Liberal Democrats and from the Labour Party, as well as holding on to many of their key marginal seats.

Labour increased its numbers both in number of votes and seats after making gains against the Liberal Democrats, along with limited gains against the Conservatives, but failed to become the largest party. Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls lost his seat in Morley and Outwood to the Conservative candidate Andrea Jenkyns, [2] whilst Ed Miliband resigned as Labour leader. [3]

The Liberal Democrats lost the vast majority of their seats, going from 43 seats down to just 6. [4] Leader Nick Clegg, who saw his nearly 30-point majority in Sheffield Hallam massively reduced to 4.2%, resigned on the morning of the election results. [5]

UKIP made large gains in the percentage of votes, but failed to retain Rochester and Strood or take any other seats, leading to the resignation of party leader Nigel Farage. His resignation was rejected, however, and he subsequently stayed on. [6]

The Green Party increased their share of the vote and held Brighton Pavilion, but failed to gain any new seats. [7]

Regional results

Regional vote shares and changes are sourced from the House of Commons Library. [8]

East Midlands

PartySeatsAggregate Votes
TotalGainsLossesNet +/-Of all (%)TotalOf all (%)Difference
Conservative 3210Increase2.svg169.6969,37943.5Increase2.svg2.3
Labour 1401Decrease2.svg130.4705,76731.6Increase2.svg1.9
UKIP 000Steady2.svg0.0351,77715.8Increase2.svg12.5
Liberal Democrats 000Steady2.svg0.0124,0395.6Decrease2.svg15.3
Green 000Steady2.svg0.066,2393.0Increase2.svg2.4
 Others000Steady2.svg0.013,2010.6
Total462,230,40265.5Decrease2.svg1.0

East of England

PartySeatsAggregate Votes
TotalGainsLossesNet +/-Of all (%)TotalOf all (%)Difference
Conservative 5211Steady2.svg89.71,445,94649.0Increase2.svg1.9
Labour 420Increase2.svg26.9649,32122.0Increase2.svg2.4
UKIP 110Increase2.svg11.7478,51716.2Increase2.svg12.0
Liberal Democrats 103Decrease2.svg31.7243,1918.2Decrease2.svg15.8
Green 000Steady2.svg0.0116,2743.9Increase2.svg2.5
 Others000Steady2.svg0.015,3740.5
Total582,948,62367.5Increase2.svg0.2

London

PartySeatsAggregate Votes
TotalGainsLossesNet +/-Of all (%)TotalOf all (%)Difference
Labour 4570Increase2.svg761.61,545,04843.7Increase2.svg7.3
Conservative 2734Decrease2.svg137.01,233,38634.9Increase2.svg0.3
UKIP 000Steady2.svg0.0286,9818.1Increase2.svg6.4
Liberal Democrats 106Decrease2.svg61.4272,5447.7Decrease2.svg14.4
Green 000Steady2.svg0.0171,6704.9Increase2.svg3.3
 Others000Steady2.svg0.026,6220.8
Total733,536,25165.4Increase2.svg0.8

North East England

PartySeatsAggregate Votes
TotalGainsLossesNet +/-Of all (%)TotalOf all (%)Difference
Labour 2610Increase2.svg189.7557,10046.9Increase2.svg3.3
Conservative 310Increase2.svg110.3300,88325.3Increase2.svg1.6
UKIP 000Steady2.svg0.0198,82316.7Increase2.svg14.0
Liberal Democrats 002Decrease2.svg20.077,0956.5Decrease2.svg17.1
Green 000Steady2.svg0.043,0513.6Increase2.svg3.3
 Others000Steady2.svg0.011,2010.9
Total291,188,15361.8Increase2.svg0.9

North West England

PartySeatsAggregate Votes
TotalGainsLossesNet +/-Of all (%)TotalOf all (%)Difference
Labour 5151Increase2.svg468.01,502,04744.6Increase2.svg5.2
Conservative 2233Steady2.svg29.31,050,12431.2Decrease2.svg0.5
UKIP 000Steady2.svg0.0459,07113.6Increase2.svg10.5
Liberal Democrats 204Decrease2.svg42.7219,9986.5Decrease2.svg15.1
Green 000Steady2.svg0.0107,8893.2Increase2.svg2.7
 Others000Steady2.svg0.024,9260.7
Total753,364,05564.3Increase2.svg0.7

South East England

PartySeatsAggregate Votes
TotalGainsLossesNet +/-Of all (%)TotalOf all (%)Difference
Conservative 7851Increase2.svg492.92,234,36050.8Increase2.svg1.5
Labour 411Steady2.svg4.8804,77418.3Decrease2.svg0.5
UKIP 000Steady2.svg0.0646,95914.7Increase2.svg10.6
Liberal Democrats 004Decrease2.svg40.0413,5869.4Decrease2.svg16.8
Green 100Steady2.svg1.2227,8825.2Increase2.svg3.7
Speaker 100Steady2.svg1.234,6170.8
 Others000Steady2.svg0.032,3150.7
Total844,394,49368.6Increase2.svg0.6

South West England

PartySeatsAggregate Votes
TotalGainsLossesNet +/-Of all (%)TotalOf all (%)Difference
Conservative 51150Increase2.svg1592.71,319,99446.5Increase2.svg3.7
Labour 411Steady2.svg7.3501,68417.7Increase2.svg2.3
Liberal Democrats 0015Decrease2.svg150.0428,92715.1Decrease2.svg19.6
UKIP 000Steady2.svg0.0384,54613.6Increase2.svg9.1
Green 000Steady2.svg0.0168,1305.9Increase2.svg4.8
 Others000Steady2.svg0.033,0131.2
Total552,836,29469.5Increase2.svg0.4

West Midlands

PartySeatsAggregate Votes
TotalGainsLossesNet +/-Of all (%)TotalOf all (%)Difference
Conservative 3421Increase2.svg157.61,097,75041.8Increase2.svg2.2
Labour 2521Increase2.svg142.4865,07532.9Increase2.svg2.3
UKIP 000Steady2.svg0.0412,77015.7Increase2.svg11.7
Liberal Democrats 002Decrease2.svg20.0145,0095.5Decrease2.svg14.9
Green 000Steady2.svg0.085,6533.3Increase2.svg2.7
 Others000Steady2.svg0.022,3220.8
Total592,628,57964.1Decrease2.svg0.5

Yorkshire and the Humber

PartySeatsAggregate Votes
TotalGainsLossesNet +/-Of all (%)TotalOf all (%)Difference
Labour 3321Increase2.svg161.1956,83739.1Increase2.svg4.8
Conservative 1911Steady2.svg35.2796,82232.6Decrease2.svg0.2
UKIP 000Steady2.svg0.0391,92316.0Increase2.svg13.2
Liberal Democrats 201Decrease2.svg13.7174,0697.1Decrease2.svg15.8
Green 000Steady2.svg0.086,4713.5Increase2.svg2.7
 Others000Steady2.svg0.038,0551.6
Total542,444,17763.1Decrease2.svg0.1

Campaign events

Target seats

The recorded swing in each case is calculated as two-way swing from the party that won in 2010 to the party targeting the seat. Negative swing implies that the targeting party lost votes to the incumbent party.

Conservative Party

RankConstituencyRegionWinning party
2010
Swing
required (%)
ResultSwing to
CON (±%)
1 Hampstead and Kilburn London Labour 0.10 Labour hold-1.0
2 Bolton West North West England Labour 0.10 Conservative gain+0.9
3 Solihull West Midlands Liberal Democrats 0.16 Conservative gain+11.9
4 Southampton Itchen South East England Labour 0.22 Conservative gain+2.8
5 Mid Dorset and North Poole South West England Liberal Democrats 0.29 Conservative gain+11.6
6 Wirral South North West England Labour 0.66 Labour hold-4.8
7 Derby North East Midlands Labour 0.68 Conservative gain+0.8
8 Wells South West England Liberal Democrats 0.72 Conservative gain+7.4
9 Dudley North West Midlands Labour 0.84 Labour hold-4.7
10 Great Grimsby Yorkshire and the Humber Labour 1.08 Labour hold-5.7

Labour Party

RankConstituencyRegionWinning party 2010 Swing
required (%)
ResultSwing to
LAB (±%)
1 North Warwickshire West Midlands Conservative 0.06 Conservative hold−3.1
2 Thurrock South East England Conservative 0.10 Conservative hold−0.5
3 Hendon London Conservative 0.11 Conservative hold−3.7
4 Sherwood East Midlands Conservative 0.22 Conservative hold−4.4
5 Norwich South East of England Liberal Democrats 0.33 Labour gain+13.2
6 Stockton South North East England Conservative 0.33 Conservative hold−4.6
7 Broxtowe East Midlands Conservative 0.37 Conservative hold−3.7
8 Lancaster and Fleetwood North West England Conservative 0.39 Labour gain+1.9
9 Bradford East Yorkshire and the Humber Liberal Democrats 0.45 Labour gain+9.0
10 Amber Valley East Midlands Conservative 0.58 Conservative hold−4.1

Liberal Democrats

RankConstituencyRegionWinning party 2010 Swing
required (%)
ResultSwing to
LD (±%)
1 Camborne and Redruth South West England Conservative 0.08 Conservative hold−13.8
2 Oxford West and Abingdon South East England Conservative 0.16 Conservative hold−8.3
3 Sheffield Central Yorkshire and the Humber Labour 0.20 Labour hold−22.5
4 Ashfield East Midlands Labour 0.20 Labour hold−12.9
5 Truro and Falmouth South West England Conservative 0.45 Conservative hold−13.2

UKIP

Rank [10] ConstituencyRegionWinning party 2010 Swing
required (%)
ResultSwing to
UKIP (±%)
1 Thanet South South East England Conservative 21.2 Conservative hold+18.4
2 Thurrock East of England Conservative 14.7 Conservative hold+13.7
3 Castle Point East of England Conservative (No candidate in 2010) Conservative hold(Vote share: 31.2%)
4 Boston and Skegness East of England Conservative 20.0 Conservative hold+15.0
5 Great Grimsby Yorkshire and the Humber Labour 13.3 Labour hold+5.9

Green Party

Swing for the Greens is measured as one-party swing, i.e. the change in the party's share of the vote.

Rank [11] ConstituencyRegionWinning party 2010ResultSwing to
GRN (±%)
1 Norwich South East of England Liberal Democrats Labour gain−1.0
2 Bristol West South East England Liberal Democrats Labour gain+23.0
3 St Ives South West England Liberal Democrats Conservative gain+3.5
4 Sheffield Central Yorkshire and the Humber Labour Labour hold+12.1
5 Liverpool Riverside North West England Labour Labour hold+8.6

Opinion polling

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
7 May 2015 General Election 2015 Results 25,571,20441.0%31.6%8.2%14.1%4.2%0.9%9.4%
30 Apr–1 May 2015 Survation/Daily Mirror 97836%34%10%17%4%<0.5%2%
30 Apr 2015 Question Time featuring David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband broadcast on BBC One; Ask Nicola Sturgeon, Ask Leanne Wood and Ask Nigel Farage programmes also shown
27–28 Apr 2015 ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail Archived 18 May 2015 at the Wayback Machine 87236%36%8%12%6%2%Tied
25–27 Apr 2015 BMG/May2015.com 87739%31%11%15%4%<0.5%8%
24–26 Apr 2015 Lord Ashcroft [12] 87037%32%9%12%8%1%5%
24–26 Apr 2015 ICM/The Guardian [13] 86339%32%7%15%6%<0.5%7%
24–25 Apr 2015 Survation/Mail on Sunday 87936%31%9%20%4%<0.5%5%
21–24 Apr 2015 Opinium/The Observer 1,66836%33%9%15%7%1%3%
22–23 Apr 2015 Survation/Daily Mirror 1,07236%29%10%20%5%<0.5%7%
21–22 Apr 2015 ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail Archived 30 April 2015 at the Wayback Machine 89039%34%8%11%5%3%5%
17–19 Apr 2015 Lord Ashcroft [12] 86336%33%9%14%5%2%3%
17–19 Apr 2015 ICM/The Guardian [13] 86338%35%9%12%5%1%3%
16–17 Apr 2015 Opinium/The Observer 1,65538%32%9%14%6%1%6%
16–17 Apr 2015 Survation/Daily Mirror 98635%34%8%18%3%1%1%
16 Apr 2015Five-way Opposition Leaders' Debate held on BBC One
12–15 Apr 2015 Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 60035%37%8%11%8%1%2%
10–12 Apr 2015 Lord Ashcroft [12] 87034%36%9%14%6%1%2%
10–12 Apr 2015 ICM/The Guardian [13] 90041%35%7%8%8%1%6%
8–9 Apr 2015 Opinium/The Observer 1,62639%35%8%12%6%1%4%
8–9 Apr 2015 Survation/Daily Mirror 83833%36%9%16%5%1%3%
7–8 Apr 2015 ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail Archived 16 April 2015 at the Wayback Machine 71836%35%11%13%4%1%1%
2–3 Apr 2015 Survation/Daily Mirror 85634%33%9%21%3%<0.5%1%
2–3 Apr 2015 Opinium/The Observer 1,71035%34%7%15%7%1%1%
2 Apr 2015Seven-way Leaders' Debate on ITV
30 Mar 2015 Dissolution of Parliament and the official start of the election campaign
28–29 Mar 2015 ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail Archived 19 September 2015 at the Wayback Machine 86438%32%9%13%6%2%6%
27–29 Mar 2015 Lord Ashcroft [12] 86540%34%7%11%7%1%6%
26 Mar 2015 First TV election interview by Jeremy Paxman with David Cameron and Ed Miliband on Sky and Channel 4
24–25 Mar 2015 Opinium/The Observer 1,69035%34%9%13%7%<0.5%1%
24–25 Mar 2015 Survation/Daily Mirror 85134%34%8%20%4%<0.5%Tied
20–22 Mar 2015 ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail Archived 2 April 2015 at the Wayback Machine 86438%35%8%11%7%1%3%
20–22 Mar 2015 Lord Ashcroft [12] 86036%33%8%14%6%2%3%
20–21 Mar 2015 Survation/Mail on Sunday 86131%35%10%19%3%1%4%
18–19 Mar 2015 Opinium/The Observer 1,70237%33%7%14%7%1%4%
13–15 Mar 2015 Lord Ashcroft [12] 86334%29%8%18%9%3%5%
13–15 Mar 2015 ICM/The Guardian [13] 91038%37%6%11%5%3%1%
10–12 Mar 2015 Opinium/The Observer 1,65435%35%7%15%7%<0.5%Tied
8–11 Mar 2015 Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 86334%37%8%14%6%1%3%
6–8 Mar 2015 Lord Ashcroft [12] 85936%31%5%18%9%1%5%
3–6 Mar 2015 Opinium/The Observer 1,62636%33%7%15%7%3%3%
27 Feb–1 Mar 2015 Lord Ashcroft [12] 86036%32%8%14%7%2%4%
24–26 Feb 2015 Opinium/The Observer 1,67935%36%7%14%6%1%1%
23 Feb 2015 Survation/Daily Mirror 92130%34%10%21%3%2%4%
20–23 Feb 2015 ComRes/Daily Mail Archived 24 February 2015 at the Wayback Machine 86536%32%7%14%9%2%4%
20–22 Feb 2015 Lord Ashcroft [12] 86732%38%6%13%8%2%6%
17–20 Feb 2015 Opinium/The Observer 1,70436%33%7%16%7%1%3%
13–15 Feb 2015 Lord Ashcroft [12] 86331%31%9%18%9%3%Tied
13–15 Feb 2015 ICM/The Guardian [13] 86038%34%7%10%8%2%4%
10–12 Feb 2015 Opinium/The Observer 1,71335%35%8%15%5%1%Tied
8–10 Feb 2015 Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 84438%37%7%10%8%0%1%
6–8 Feb 2015 Lord Ashcroft [12] 86036%31%9%16%7%1%5%
3–6 Feb 2015 Opinium/The Observer 1,94733%35%7%15%8%2%2%
30 Jan–1 Feb 2015 Lord Ashcroft [12] 85734%30%8%17%10%1%4%
25 Jan 2015 Survation/Daily Mirror 89034%30%7%25%4%<0.5%4%
23–25 Jan 2015 ComRes/The Independent [ permanent dead link ]85233%29%9%20%8%1%4%
22–25 Jan 2015 Lord Ashcroft [12] 85933%34%5%17%9%2%1%
16–19 Jan 2015 ICM/The Guardian [13] 86332%35%8%14%10%1%3%
16–18 Jan 2015 Lord Ashcroft [12] 87131%27%9%17%12%4%4%
11–13 Jan 2015 Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 85435%35%8%12%8%2%Tied
9–11 Jan 2015 Lord Ashcroft [12] 85837%29%7%17%8%2%8%
12–16 Dec 2014 ICM/The Guardian [13] 86131%33%11%17%5%3%2%
13–15 Dec 2014 Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 84036%31%9%14%10%0%5%
12–14 Dec 2014 ComRes/The Independent [ permanent dead link ]89729%34%12%17%6%2%5%
5–7 Dec 2014 Lord Ashcroft [12] 86031%31%7%23%6%2%Tied
6 May 2010 General Election Results 25,085,09739.6%28.1%24.2%3.5%1.0%3.6%11.5%

Endorsements

Donations

Electoral commission data [14] shows that in 2015 Q2, total donations for each major political party, over £7,500, are as follows:

PartyDonations
Conservative £9,159,884
Labour £8,783,492
Liberal Democrats £2,434,159
UKIP £2,203,921
Green £55,152

See also

References

  1. Election 2015 Results England BBC News
  2. "Balls ousted after ballot recount". BBC News. 8 May 2015. Retrieved 22 March 2020.
  3. Wright, Oliver (8 May 2015). "Ed Miliband resigns: Labour leader quits after humiliating night for party that gives the Conservatives an overall majority" . The Independent. Archived from the original on 1 May 2022. Retrieved 8 April 2020.
  4. Galston, William A. (8 May 2015). "UK elections: Where did support for the Liberal Democrats go?". Brookings. Retrieved 17 May 2020.
  5. Watt, Nicholas (8 May 2015). "Nick Clegg resigns as Lib Dem leader". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved 22 March 2020.
  6. Adam, Karla (11 May 2015). "Nigel Farage, one of Britain's most controversial politicians, resigned after the election. Then he un-resigned". The Washington Post . Retrieved 9 April 2020.
  7. Walker, Peter (8 May 2015). "Green vote increases four-fold, but Caroline Lucas remains party's only MP". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved 8 April 2020.
  8. Cracknell, Richard; Johnston, Neil; Bolton, Paul; Harker, Rachael; Baker, Carl; Ayres, Steven; Nakatudde, Nambassa; Keen, Richard; Hawkins, Oliver (2015). "General Election 2015". House of Commons Library.{{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
  9. Gosden, Emily (13 April 2015). "General Election 2015: Monday 13 April as it happened" . The Daily Telegraph.
  10. Bennett, Owen (1 April 2015). "Ukip target seats to secure a breakthrough in the 2015 general election". Daily Mirror. Retrieved 12 May 2015.
  11. Bennett, Owen (2 April 2015). "Green Party's top target seats in the General Election if Natalie Bennett is to lead a breakthrough". Daily Mirror. Retrieved 12 May 2015.
  12. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Lord Ashcroft adjusts for don't know/refusers by reallocating a proportion of those to the party they tend to support. The England figures are based on a table that does not adjust for don't knows/refusers.
  13. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 ICM adjust for don't know/refusers by reallocating a proportion of those to the major party they tend to support. Percentages for England are based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers.
  14. "Donations accepted". www.electoralcommission.org.uk. Retrieved 3 April 2020.