Sea wall (British politics)

Last updated

The British coastline Britain Fractal Coastline 50km.png
The British coastline

The Sea wall is a term used by psephologists to refer to battleground constituencies along the UK coastline. [1] The sea wall is predominantly Conservative voting but is home to many marginal seats that are vulnerable to Labour according to opinion polls. [2] [3] Along with Red wall and Blue wall, the Sea wall overlaps both, [4] and has been used in coverage for the 2024 general election. There are thought to be 108 such constituencies. [5] In the 2019 general election Labour won just 24 of these seats. [6]

Contents

Coastal constituencies in England and Wales are noted for deprivation. [7] [8] They are personified by tourism based economies, the cost of living crisis and poor connectivity. [9] Coastal communities are known to have lower wages compared to people living and working inland. [10] The availability of affordable housing has also been an issue. [11]

The thinktank Onward has called coastal areas “the forgotten battleground that could decide the next election”. [12]

Background

The term was used 2022 local elections when the Labour Party took majority control of Worthing Borough Council just five years after winning their first councillor in the district. [13] Labour are considered to be competitive in Conservative areas on south coast like Plymouth, Bournemouth, Southampton and Portsmouth. [14]

Research from the Fabian Society was reported on that Labour had unprecedented polling leads over the Conservatives. [15] The "sea wall" is regarded by them as an important area for the 2024 general election. [16] YouGov polling showed that 44% of voters in the sea wall said they would never consider voting Conservative. [17]

Jaywick in Tendring District in Essex is the most deprived neighbourhood in England. [18] The Clacton constituency was noted for being the only place to elect a UKIP MP in a general election. [19] Since Brexit, Conservative support in coastal areas that voted Leave has been waning. [20] On 3 June 2024, Nigel Farage took over Reform UK and announced his candidacy in Clacton. [21]

Elections in the 2020s

Labour won the 2024 Blackpool South by-election with a large swing. [22] Channel 4 has reported during the 2024 United Kingdom general election that the coastal towns in the sea wall will determine the election. [23]

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Blackpool South (UK Parliament constituency)</span> Parliamentary constituency in the United Kingdom, 1945 onwards

Blackpool South is a constituency in Lancashire, England which has been represented by Chris Webb of the Labour Party since a 2024 by-election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Nuneaton (UK Parliament constituency)</span>

Nuneaton is a constituency represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament since 2010 by Marcus Jones, a Conservative. Since 1997, the seat has been seen as an important national bellwether.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Jaywick</span> Coastal village in Essex, England

Jaywick is a coastal village in the Tendring district of Essex, England, 2 miles (3 km) west of Clacton-on-Sea. It lies on the North Sea coast of England, 60 miles (97 km) from London and 17 miles (27 km) from Colchester. It was constructed in the 1930s as a holiday resort for Londoners, but has, over time, been officially named the most deprived area in the country.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Clacton (UK Parliament constituency)</span> Parliamentary constituency in the United Kingdom, 2010 onwards

Clacton is a constituency in Essex represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament since 2017 by Giles Watling of the Conservative Party. It is centred on the seaside town of Clacton, hence its name.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Harold Elletson</span> British politician (1960–2023)

Harold Daniel Hope Elletson was a British politician.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2014 Clacton by-election</span> 2014 UK Parliamentary by-election

On 9 October 2014, a by-election was held for the UK parliamentary constituency of Clacton in Essex, England. The by-election was triggered by the Conservative MP for Clacton, Douglas Carswell, defecting to the UK Independence Party (UKIP) and subsequently resigning his seat to seek re-election as its candidate.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2015 United Kingdom general election</span>

The 2015 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday 7 May 2015 to elect 650 Members of Parliament (MPs) to the House of Commons. It was the only general election to be held under the rules of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 and was the last general election to be held before the United Kingdom voted to end its membership of the European Union (EU) in June 2016. Local elections took place in most areas of England on the same day and is to date the most recent general election to coincide with local elections. The governing Conservative Party led by the prime minister, David Cameron, won an unexpected victory; opinion polls and political commentators had predicted that the results of the election would cause a second consecutive hung parliament whose composition would be similar to the previous Parliament, which was in effect from the previous national election in 2010. However, opinion polls turned out to have underestimated the Conservatives, as they won 330 of the 650 seats and 36.9 per cent of the votes, giving them a majority of ten seats.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2014 Rochester and Strood by-election</span> Kent By-election

A by-election was held on 20 November 2014 for the UK parliamentary constituency of Rochester and Strood in Kent, England. The sitting Member of Parliament (MP) Mark Reckless called it on joining the UK Independence Party (UKIP), from the Conservatives. He resigned his seat.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2019 United Kingdom general election</span>

The 2019 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday 12 December 2019, with 47,567,752 registered voters entitled to vote to elect members of the House of Commons. The governing Conservative Party led by the prime minister Boris Johnson won a landslide victory with a majority of 80 seats, a net gain of 48, on 43.6% of the popular vote, the highest percentage for any party since the 1979 general election, though with a narrower popular vote margin than that achieved by Labour over the Conservatives in 1997. This was the second national election to be held in 2019 in the United Kingdom, the first being the 2019 European Parliament election.

Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election is being carried out continually by various organisations to gauge voting intention. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. The dates for these opinion polls range from the previous election on 12 December 2019 to the present day.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Scott Benton (politician)</span> British politician (born 1987)

Scott Lloyd Benton is a former British politician who was Member of Parliament (MP) for Blackpool South from the 2019 general election until his resignation in March 2024. A member of the Conservative Party, he was previously also a councillor on Calderdale Metropolitan Borough Council and a primary school teacher.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Red wall (British politics)</span> Constituencies that typically vote Labour

The red wall is a term used in British politics to describe the UK Parliament constituencies in the Midlands and Northern England that historically supported the Labour Party. At the 2019 general election, many of these parliamentary seats were won by the Conservative Party, with the media describing the red wall as having "turned blue".

In British politics, the blue wall is a set of parliamentary constituencies in southern England which have traditionally voted for the Conservative Party, but generally opposed Brexit and are seen as being potentially vulnerable to gains either by the Liberal Democrats or the Labour Party. This shift was noticeable in the UK general elections of 2017 and 2019.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2023 United Kingdom local elections</span> Elections to local councils and mayoralties

The 2023 United Kingdom local elections were held on Thursday, 4 May 2023 in England and on Thursday 18 May 2023 in Northern Ireland. These included district councils, unitary authorities, and directly elected mayors in England, and included all local councils in Northern Ireland. Notably, these elections were the first to be held under the Elections Act 2022, a new voter identification law that required voters to show photo ID when attending a polling station, and was a cause for controversy.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 United Kingdom local elections</span> Elections in England and Wales

The 2024 United Kingdom local elections took place on 2 May 2024 to choose 2,658 councillors on 107 councils in England, 11 directly elected mayors in England, the 25 members of the London Assembly, and 37 police and crime commissioners in England and Wales. The 2024 Blackpool South parliamentary by-election was held on the same day. These local elections were the last set of routine elections before the general election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 Blackpool South by-election</span> UK parliamentary by-election

A by-election took place on 2 May 2024 in the UK Parliament constituency of Blackpool South, the same day as local elections in England and Wales.

References

  1. ↑ "National Swing Man, the British electorate's new-old tribe". The Economist. ISSN   0013-0613 . Retrieved 2024-04-09.
  2. ↑ Walker, Ben (2022-12-14). "How Labour has overtaken the Conservatives in "Sea Wall" battlegrounds". State of the Nation. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  3. ↑ "Labour lead grows in 'sea wall' constituencies, polling shows". Sky News. Retrieved 2024-05-30.
  4. ↑ Savage, Michael (2023-06-10). "Labour has clear lead over Tories in more than 100 battleground seats, poll finds". The Observer. ISSN   0029-7712 . Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  5. ↑ "Labour lead grows in 'sea wall' constituencies, polling shows". Sky News. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  6. ↑ Boucott-Owen, Mason (16 December 2022). "Tories set to lose 'Sea Wall' of coastal seats". The Yorkshire Post .
  7. ↑ Association, Press (2017-09-04). "Seaside towns among most deprived communities in UK". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  8. ↑ "Coastal communities among worst off in UK, report finds". BBC News. 2017-09-03. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  9. ↑ Thomas, Jane (2024-01-11). "Sea wall replaces red wall: can Labour win the coast?". Yorkshire Bylines. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  10. ↑ "Coastal communities: Residents earn £1,600 less than people inland". BBC News. 2019-10-09. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  11. ↑ "Locals at risk of being priced out of Britain's prettiest coastal towns". Sky News. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  12. ↑ Green, Daniel (2024-04-14). "Adur local elections: How a red wave can end 25-year Tory grip on south coast". LabourList. Retrieved 2024-04-24.
  13. ↑ "Sussex election results 2022: Labour wins control of Worthing for first time". BBC News. 2022-05-06. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  14. ↑ Stewart, Heather (2022-05-06). "From 'red wall' to 'sea wall': five things we learned from the local elections". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  15. ↑ "Labour lead grows in 'sea wall' constituencies, polling shows | Politics News - The South Yorkshire Scoop". thesouthyorkshirescoop.com. 2024-02-23. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  16. ↑ "Breaching the Sea Wall | Fabian Society". Fabian Society - The Fabian Society is Britain’s oldest political think tank. Founded in 1884, the Society is at the forefront of developing political ideas and public policy on the left. 2022-12-14. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  17. ↑ FM, Seaside. "Labour lead grows in 'sea wall' constituencies, polling shows". Seaside FM. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  18. ↑ "England's most deprived areas named as Jaywick and Blackpool". BBC News. 2019-09-26. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  19. ↑ McSmith, Andy (10 October 2014). "Clacton by-election: Douglas Carswell becomes Ukip's first ever elected MP after a sensational victory". The Independent.
  20. ↑ Moore, Hannah (2023-09-19). "Clacton-on-Sea: the 'forgotten' town that voted for Brexit". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  21. ↑ "Nigel Farage to run as Reform UK candidate in Clacton". BBC News. 2024-06-03. Retrieved 2024-06-28.
  22. ↑ Stacey, Kiran; Vinter, Robyn (2024-05-03). "Starmer hails Blackpool South win as result points to big Labour victory at general election". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved 2024-05-05.
  23. ↑ Moodley, Kiran (2024-06-12). "Could votes from 'Sea Wall' constituencies determine the election?". Channel 4 News. Retrieved 2024-06-12.

See also

This page is based on this Wikipedia article
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.