Sea wall (British politics)

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The coast of Great Britain. The "Sea wall" refers to the coast of England and Wales Britain Fractal Coastline 50km.png
The coast of Great Britain. The "Sea wall" refers to the coast of England and Wales

The Sea wall is a term used by psephologists to refer to 108 constituencies along the UK coastline, generalising them as marginal. [1] They formed before the July 2024 election a majority of Conservative pluralities, so seats, many or most marginal enough to be vulnerable to Labour according to opinion polls. [2] [3] As to the Red and Blue walls, the Sea wall overlaps both [4] and was used in some coverage of the 2024 general election. [5] From the 2019 general election to July 2024, Labour held 24 of these seats. [6]

Contents

These seats in England and Wales are noted, relative to the national average, for deprivation. [7] [8] They are personified by tourism-based economies, the cost of living crisis, and poor connectivity. [9] Coastal residents bring home on average lower wages. [10] The availability of affordable housing has also been an issue. [11]

Before the 2024 general election, the think tank Onward called coastal areas “the forgotten battleground that could decide [this] election”. [12]

Background

The term was used 2022 local elections when the Labour Party took majority control of Worthing Borough Council just five years after winning their first councillor in the district. [13] Labour are considered to be competitive in Conservative areas within the South like Plymouth, Bournemouth, Southampton, and Portsmouth. [14]

Research from the Fabian Society was reported on that Labour had unprecedented polling leads over the Conservatives. [15] The "sea wall" is regarded by them as an important area for the 2024 general election. [16] YouGov polling showed that 44% of voters in the Sea wall said they would never consider voting Conservative. [17]

Jaywick in Tendring District in Essex is the most deprived neighbourhood in England. [18] The Clacton constituency was noted for being the only place to elect a UKIP MP in a general election. [19] Since Brexit, Conservative support in coastal areas that voted Leave has been waning. [20] On 3 June 2024, Nigel Farage took over Reform UK and announced his candidacy in Clacton. [21]

Elections in the 2020s

Labour won the 2024 Blackpool South by-election with a large swing. [22] Channel 4 reported during the 2024 election that the coastal towns in the sea wall would determine the election. [23]

In the 2024 United Kingdom general election, Labour had a breakthrough in coastal England, winning coastal areas they never had before in Cornwall, Dorset, Somerset, the Isle of Wight, West Sussex, Kent, Norfolk and Essex. [24]

See also

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 Blackpool South by-election</span> UK parliamentary by-election

A by-election took place on 2 May 2024 in the UK Parliament constituency of Blackpool South, the same day as local elections in England and Wales.

An election took place in the Essex constituency of Clacton on 4 July 2024, as part of the 2024 United Kingdom general election. Nigel Farage, the newly re-appointed leader of Reform UK and the former leader of the UK Independence Party, won the election with 46.2% of the vote and successfully entered Parliament after seven previous attempts. As "figurehead of the country's populist right", Farage brought Clacton to international attention.

This article collates polling conducted for various geographical regions, including polls of individual constituencies. Polling covering all of the UK or Great Britain are collated in the article Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election.

References

  1. ↑ "National Swing Man, the British electorate's new-old tribe". The Economist. ISSN   0013-0613 . Retrieved 2024-04-09.
  2. ↑ Walker, Ben (2022-12-14). "How Labour has overtaken the Conservatives in "Sea Wall" battlegrounds". State of the Nation. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  3. ↑ "Labour lead grows in 'sea wall' constituencies, polling shows". Sky News. Retrieved 2024-05-30.
  4. ↑ Savage, Michael (2023-06-10). "Labour has clear lead over Tories in more than 100 battleground seats, poll finds". The Observer. ISSN   0029-7712 . Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  5. ↑ "Labour lead grows in 'sea wall' constituencies, polling shows". Sky News. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  6. ↑ Boucott-Owen, Mason (16 December 2022). "Tories set to lose 'Sea Wall' of coastal seats". The Yorkshire Post .
  7. ↑ "Seaside towns among most deprived communities in UK". The Guardian. Press Association. 2017-09-04. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  8. ↑ "Coastal communities among worst off in UK, report finds". BBC News. 2017-09-03. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  9. ↑ Thomas, Jane (2024-01-11). "Sea wall replaces red wall: can Labour win the coast?". Yorkshire Bylines. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  10. ↑ "Coastal communities: Residents earn £1,600 less than people inland". BBC News. 2019-10-09. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  11. ↑ "Locals at risk of being priced out of Britain's prettiest coastal towns". Sky News. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  12. ↑ Green, Daniel (2024-04-14). "Adur local elections: How a red wave can end 25-year Tory grip on south coast". LabourList. Retrieved 2024-04-24.
  13. ↑ "Sussex election results 2022: Labour wins control of Worthing for first time". BBC News. 2022-05-06. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  14. ↑ Stewart, Heather (2022-05-06). "From 'red wall' to 'sea wall': five things we learned from the local elections". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  15. ↑ "Labour lead grows in 'sea wall' constituencies, polling shows | Politics News - The South Yorkshire Scoop". thesouthyorkshirescoop.com. 2024-02-23. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  16. ↑ "Breaching the Sea Wall | Fabian Society". Fabian Society - The Fabian Society is Britain’s oldest political think tank. Founded in 1884, the Society is at the forefront of developing political ideas and public policy on the left. 2022-12-14. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  17. ↑ FM, Seaside. "Labour lead grows in 'sea wall' constituencies, polling shows". Seaside FM. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  18. ↑ "England's most deprived areas named as Jaywick and Blackpool". BBC News. 2019-09-26. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  19. ↑ McSmith, Andy (10 October 2014). "Clacton by-election: Douglas Carswell becomes Ukip's first ever elected MP after a sensational victory". The Independent.
  20. ↑ Moore, Hannah (2023-09-19). "Clacton-on-Sea: the 'forgotten' town that voted for Brexit". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  21. ↑ "Nigel Farage to run as Reform UK candidate in Clacton". BBC News. 2024-06-03. Retrieved 2024-06-28.
  22. ↑ Stacey, Kiran; Vinter, Robyn (2024-05-03). "Starmer hails Blackpool South win as result points to big Labour victory at general election". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved 2024-05-05.
  23. ↑ Moodley, Kiran (2024-06-12). "Could votes from 'Sea Wall' constituencies determine the election?". Channel 4 News. Retrieved 2024-06-12.
  24. ↑ "General election 2024 results in maps and charts". BBC News. 2024-07-04. Retrieved 2024-08-28.
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