Sea wall (British politics)

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The British coastline

The Sea wall is a term used by psephologists to refer to battleground constituencies along the UK coastline. [1] The sea wall is predominantly Conservative voting but is home to many marginal seats that are vulnerable to Labour according to opinion polls. [2] [3] Along with Red wall and Blue wall, the Sea wall overlaps both, [4] and has been used in coverage for the 2024 general election. There are thought to be 108 such constituencies. [5] In the 2019 general election Labour won just 24 of these seats. [6]

Contents

Coastal constituencies in England and Wales are noted for deprivation. [7] [8] They are personified by tourism based economies, the cost of living crisis and poor connectivity. [9] Coastal communities are known to have lower wages compared to people living and working inland. [10] The availability of affordable housing has also been an issue. [11]

The thinktank Onward has called coastal areas “the forgotten battleground that could decide the next election”. [12]

Background

The term was used 2022 local elections when the Labour Party took majority control of Worthing Borough Council just five years after winning their first councillor in the district. [13] Labour are considered to be competitive in Conservative areas on south coast like Plymouth, Bournemouth, Southampton and Portsmouth. [14]

Research from the Fabian Society was reported on that Labour had unprecedented polling leads over the Conservatives. [15] The "sea wall" is regarded by them as an important area for the 2024 general election. [16] YouGov polling showed that 44% of voters in the sea wall said they would never consider voting Conservative. [17]

Jaywick in Tendring District in Essex is the most deprived neighbourhood in England. [18] The Clacton constituency was noted for being the only place to elect a UKIP MP in a general election. [19] Since Brexit, Conservative support in coastal areas that voted Leave has been waning. [20]

Elections in the 2020s

Labour won the 2024 Blackpool South by-election with a large swing. [21] Channel 4 has reported during the 2024 United Kingdom general election that the coastal towns in the sea wall will determine the election. [22]

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References

  1. ↑ "National Swing Man, the British electorate's new-old tribe". The Economist. ISSN   0013-0613 . Retrieved 2024-04-09.
  2. ↑ Walker, Ben (2022-12-14). "How Labour has overtaken the Conservatives in "Sea Wall" battlegrounds". State of the Nation. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  3. ↑ "Labour lead grows in 'sea wall' constituencies, polling shows". Sky News. Retrieved 2024-05-30.
  4. ↑ Savage, Michael (2023-06-10). "Labour has clear lead over Tories in more than 100 battleground seats, poll finds". The Observer. ISSN   0029-7712 . Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  5. ↑ "Labour lead grows in 'sea wall' constituencies, polling shows". Sky News. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  6. ↑ Boucott-Owen, Mason (16 December 2022). "Tories set to lose 'Sea Wall' of coastal seats". The Yorkshire Post .
  7. ↑ Association, Press (2017-09-04). "Seaside towns among most deprived communities in UK". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  8. ↑ "Coastal communities among worst off in UK, report finds". BBC News. 2017-09-03. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  9. ↑ Thomas, Jane (2024-01-11). "Sea wall replaces red wall: can Labour win the coast?". Yorkshire Bylines. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  10. ↑ "Coastal communities: Residents earn £1,600 less than people inland". BBC News. 2019-10-09. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  11. ↑ "Locals at risk of being priced out of Britain's prettiest coastal towns". Sky News. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  12. ↑ Green, Daniel (2024-04-14). "Adur local elections: How a red wave can end 25-year Tory grip on south coast". LabourList. Retrieved 2024-04-24.
  13. ↑ "Sussex election results 2022: Labour wins control of Worthing for first time". BBC News. 2022-05-06. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  14. ↑ Stewart, Heather (2022-05-06). "From 'red wall' to 'sea wall': five things we learned from the local elections". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  15. ↑ "Labour lead grows in 'sea wall' constituencies, polling shows | Politics News - The South Yorkshire Scoop". thesouthyorkshirescoop.com. 2024-02-23. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  16. ↑ "Breaching the Sea Wall | Fabian Society". Fabian Society - The Fabian Society is Britain’s oldest political think tank. Founded in 1884, the Society is at the forefront of developing political ideas and public policy on the left. 2022-12-14. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  17. ↑ FM, Seaside. "Labour lead grows in 'sea wall' constituencies, polling shows". Seaside FM. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  18. ↑ "England's most deprived areas named as Jaywick and Blackpool". BBC News. 2019-09-26. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  19. ↑ McSmith, Andy (10 October 2014). "Clacton by-election: Douglas Carswell becomes Ukip's first ever elected MP after a sensational victory". The Independent.
  20. ↑ Moore, Hannah (2023-09-19). "Clacton-on-Sea: the 'forgotten' town that voted for Brexit". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved 2024-02-29.
  21. ↑ Stacey, Kiran; Vinter, Robyn (2024-05-03). "Starmer hails Blackpool South win as result points to big Labour victory at general election". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved 2024-05-05.
  22. ↑ Moodley, Kiran (2024-06-12). "Could votes from 'Sea Wall' constituencies determine the election?". Channel 4 News. Retrieved 2024-06-12.

See also

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