In the run-up to the 2021 Scottish Parliament election, various organisations conducted opinion polls to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. Most of the pollsters listed were members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abided by its disclosure rules.
The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous Scottish Parliament election, held on 5 May 2016, to the 2021 election, held on 6 May 2021. [1]
This graph shows opinion poll results with trendlines for the 30-day moving averages. The SNP led in all polls, with the Conservatives and Labour coming second or third behind them.
SNP – Scottish National Party
Conservative – Scottish Conservatives
Labour – Scottish Labour
Lib Dem – Scottish Liberal Democrats
Green – Scottish Greens
UKIP – UK Independence Party
Reform – Reform UK
SSP – Scottish Socialist Party
Alba – Alba Party
AFU – All for Unity
The opinion polls below are gauge voting intentions for the 73 single member constituency seats elected through the plurality voting system.
Pollster | Client | Date(s) conducted | Sample size | SNP | Con | Lab | Lib Dem | Green | UKIP | Ref UK | Other | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2021 Scottish Parliament election | 6 May 2021 | – | 47.7% | 21.9% | 21.6% | 6.9% | 1.3% | 0.0% | – | 0.6% | 25.8% | |
BBC Scotland leaders' debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Harvie [2] | ||||||||||||
YouGov | The Times | 2–4 May 2021 | 1,144 | 52% | 20% | 19% | 6% | 2% | – | – | 1% | 32% |
Survation | The Courier | 30 Apr – 4 May 2021 | 1,008 | 49% | 21% | 21% | 8% | 1% | – | – | 1% | 28% |
Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 30 Apr – 4 May 2021 | 1,001 | 42% | 25% | 22% | 8% | – | – | – | 3% | 17% |
Ipsos MORI | STV News | 30 Apr – 3 May 2021 | 1,502 | 50% | 20% | 22% | 6% | 2% | – | – | 1% | 28% |
Opinium | Sky News | 28 Apr – 3 May 2021 | 1,015 | 51% | 23% | 19% | 7% | – | – | – | – | 28% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 28–30 Apr 2021 | 1,096 | 48% | 21% | 20% | 7% | 3% | – | – | 1% | 27% |
BMG | The Herald | 27–30 Apr 2021 | 1,023 | 49% | 19% | 21% | 9% | – | – | – | – | 28% |
Channel 4 News leaders' debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Harvie [3] | ||||||||||||
Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 23–27 Apr 2021 | 1,001 | 45% | 23% | 23% | 7% | – | – | – | 1% | 22% |
Survation | GMB | 23–26 Apr 2021 | 1,008 | 47% | 21% | 21% | 8% | – | – | – | 2% | 26% |
Panelbase | Scot Goes Pop | 21–26 Apr 2021 | 1,075 | 45% | 20% | 22% | 8% | 4% | – | – | – | 23% |
Survation | The Sunday Post | 20–22 Apr 2021 | 1,037 | 50% | 21% | 21% | 7% | 1% | – | – | 1% | 29% |
Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 16–20 Apr 2021 | 1,001 | 46% | 25% | 20% | 6% | – | – | – | 3% | 21% |
YouGov | The Times | 16–20 Apr 2021 | 1,204 | 49% | 21% | 21% | 6% | 1% | – | – | 2% | 28% |
STV leaders' debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Harvie [4] | ||||||||||||
Panelbase | Believe in Scotland | 9–12 Apr 2021 | 1,002 | 47% | 23% | 20% | 6% | 4% | – | – | – | 24% |
Lord Ashcroft | N/A | 7–19 Apr 2021 | 2,017 | 49% | 22% | 15% | 8% | 5% | – | – | – | 27% |
Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 2–7 Apr 2021 | 1,007 | 49% | 23% | 18% | 6% | – | – | – | 3% | 26% |
Opinium | Sky News | 1–6 Apr 2021 | 1,023 | 53% | 21% | 18% | 6% | – | – | – | 1% | 32% |
Ipsos MORI | STV News | 30 Mar – 4 Apr 2021 | 1,038 | 53% | 20% | 18% | 6% | 2% | – | – | 1% | 33% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 30 Mar – 1 Apr 2021 | 1,009 | 49% | 22% | 20% | 6% | 2% | – | – | – | 27% |
BBC Scotland leaders' debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Slater [5] | ||||||||||||
Survation | The Courier | 29–30 Mar 2021 | 1,000 | 49% | 21% | 20% | 9% | 1% | – | – | – | 28% |
Former first minister Alex Salmond launches the Alba Party [6] | ||||||||||||
Find Out Now | Daily Express | 23–26 Mar 2021 | 1,022 | 50% | 21% | 17% | 5% | 4% | – | 1% | 1% | 29% |
YouGov | The Times | 19–22 Mar 2021 | N/A | 50% | 24% | 17% | 5% | 2% | – | – | 2% | 26% |
BMG | The Herald | 16–19 Mar 2021 | 1,021 | 48% | 21% | 20% | 8% | 1% | – | – | 1% | 27% |
Survation | The Courier | 11–18 Mar 2021 | 1,515 | 50% | 21% | 20% | 8% | 1% | – | – | – | 29% |
Opinium | Sky News | 11–16 Mar 2021 | 1,096 | 46% | 24% | 20% | 6% | 4% | – | – | 1% | 22% |
Survation | Scotland in Union | 9–12 Mar 2021 | 1,011 | 46% | 21% | 23% | 8% | 1% | – | – | 1% | 23% |
Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 5–10 Mar 2021 | 1,009 | 48% | 23% | 20% | 8% | – | – | – | 2% | 25% |
YouGov | The Times | 4–8 Mar 2021 | 1,100 | 52% | 22% | 17% | 6% | 2% | – | – | 1% | 30% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 3–5 Mar 2021 | 1,013 | 47% | 23% | 20% | 7% | 2% | – | – | 1% | 24% |
Anas Sarwar is elected leader of Scottish Labour [7] | ||||||||||||
Survation | Daily Record | 24–25 Feb 2021 | 1,011 | 50% | 21% | 20% | 7% | 3% | – | – | 2% | 29% |
Ipsos MORI | STV News | 15–21 Feb 2021 | 1,031 | 52% | 23% | 15% | 5% | 3% | – | – | 2% | 29% |
Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 4–9 Feb 2021 | 1,002 | 50% | 23% | 19% | 6% | – | – | – | 2% | 27% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 19–22 Jan 2021 | 1,059 | 52% | 20% | 17% | 6% | 3% | – | – | – | 32% |
Survation | Scot Goes Pop | 11–13 Jan 2021 | 1,020 | 51% | 19% | 19% | 9% | – | – | – | – | 32% |
Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 8–13 Jan 2021 | 1,016 | 49% | 20% | 20% | 8% | – | – | – | 4% | 29% |
The Brexit Party is re-registered as Reform UK [8] | ||||||||||||
Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 11–15 Dec 2020 | 1,013 | 52% | 19% | 19% | 7% | – | – | – | 3% | 33% |
Survation | N/A | 4–9 Dec 2020 | 1,010 | 53% | 20% | 20% | 6% | 1% | – | – | – | 33% |
Ipsos MORI | STV News | 20–26 Nov 2020 | 1,006 | 55% | 22% | 14% | 6% | 1% | – | – | 1% | 33% |
Panelbase | Scot Goes Pop | 5–11 Nov 2020 | 1,020 | 53% | 21% | 18% | 5% | 3% | – | – | <1% | 32% |
YouGov | N/A | 6–10 Nov 2020 | 1,089 | 56% | 19% | 15% | 6% | 2% | – | – | – | 37% |
Survation | N/A | 28 Oct – 3 Nov 2020 | 1,071 | 54% | 19% | 18% | 8% | – | – | – | 2% | 35% |
Ipsos MORI | STV News | 2–9 Oct 2020 | 1,045 | 58% | 19% | 13% | 8% | 1% | – | – | 2% | 39% |
Savanta ComRes | N/A | 9 Oct 2020 | 1,003 | 50% | 23% | 18% | 6% | – | – | – | 2% | 27% |
JL Partners | Politico | 17–21 Sep 2020 | 1,016 | 58% | 19% | 13% | 8% | 2% | – | – | <1% | 39% |
Survation | N/A | 2–7 Sep 2020 | 1,018 | 53% | 20% | 18% | 7% | – | – | – | 2% | 33% |
Savanta ComRes | N/A | 6–13 Aug 2020 | 1,008 | 51% | 24% | 17% | 6% | – | – | – | 2% | 27% |
YouGov | The Times | 6–10 Aug 2020 | 1,142 | 57% | 20% | 14% | 8% | 1% | – | – | 1% | 37% |
Douglas Ross becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives [9] | ||||||||||||
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 30 Jun – 3 Jul 2020 | 1,026 | 55% | 20% | 15% | 6% | 3% | – | – | <1% | 35% |
Panelbase | Scot Goes Pop | 1–5 Jun 2020 | 1,022 | 53% | 21% | 16% | 6% | 3% | – | – | <1% | 32% |
Panelbase | Wings Over Scotland | 1–5 May 2020 | 1,086 | 53% | 23% | 15% | 5% | 3% | – | – | 1% | 30% |
YouGov | N/A | 24–27 Apr 2020 | 1,095 | 54% | 23% | 12% | 8% | 2% | – | – | 1% | 31% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 24–26 Mar 2020 | 1,023 | 51% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | – | – | <1% | 25% |
Jackson Carlaw is elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives [10] | ||||||||||||
Panelbase | Scot Goes Pop | 28–31 Jan 2020 | 1,016 | 50% | 26% | 14% | 7% | 3% | – | – | <1% | 24% |
Survation | Progress Scotland | 20–22 Jan 2020 | 1,019 | 51% | 23% | 17% | 7% | – | – | – | 1% | 28% |
2019 United Kingdom general election [11] | ||||||||||||
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 3–6 Dec 2019 | 1,020 | 43% | 26% | 19% | 8% | 2% | – | 2% | <1% | 17% |
YouGov | The Times | 29 Nov – 3 Dec 2019 | 1,002 | 46% | 26% | 14% | 11% | 1% | – | 0% | 0% [nb 1] | 20% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 20–22 Nov 2019 | 1,009 | 43% | 26% | 17% | 9% | 2% | – | 3% | <1% | 17% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 9–11 Oct 2019 | 1,003 | 42% | 21% | 19% | 10% | 3% | <1% | 4% | <1% | 21% |
YouGov | The Times | 29 Aug – 3 Sep 2019 | 1,059 | 45% | 23% | 13% | 12% | 2% | – | 3% | 1% [nb 1] | 22% |
Shetland by-election [12] | ||||||||||||
Lorna Slater is elected co-leader of the Scottish Greens alongside Patrick Harvie [13] | ||||||||||||
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 18–20 Jun 2019 | 1,024 | 42% | 20% | 16% | 11% | 3% | <1% | 7% | <1% [nb 2] | 22% |
2019 European Parliament election [14] | ||||||||||||
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 14–17 May 2019 | 1,021 | 41% | 20% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 7% | 1% [nb 3] | 21% |
YouGov | The Times | 24–26 Apr 2019 | 1,029 | 46% | 22% | 16% | 7% | 3% | – | 4% | 1% [nb 3] | 24% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 18–24 Apr 2019 | 1,018 | 40% | 22% | 20% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 2% [nb 4] | 18% |
Panelbase | Wings Over Scotland | 28 Feb – 6 Mar 2019 | 1,002 | 41% | 27% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 2% | – | <1% | 14% |
Survation | Scottish Daily Mail | 1–4 Mar 2019 | 1,011 | 43% | 24% | 22% | 9% | – | – | – | 2% | 19% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 30 Nov – 5 Dec 2018 | 1,028 | 41% | 25% | 23% | 6% | 3% | 1% | – | <1% | 16% |
Panelbase | Constitutional Commission | 2–7 Nov 2018 | 1,050 | 39% | 27% | 24% | 6% | 3% | 1% | – | <1% | 12% |
Survation | Daily Record | 18–21 Oct 2018 | 1,017 | 38% | 26% | 25% | 9% | 1% | – | – | 0% | 12% |
Survation/SNP | N/A | 3–5 Oct 2018 | 1,013 | 44% | 24% | 23% | 8% | – | – | – | 1% | 20% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 28 Sep – 4 Oct 2018 | 1,024 | 41% | 26% | 21% | 6% | 3% | 2% | – | <1% | 15% |
Survation | The Sunday Post | 28 Sep – 2 Oct 2018 | 1,036 | 43% | 24% | 23% | 9% | – | – | – | 2% | 19% |
Survation | Daily Record | 5–10 Jul 2018 | 1,004 | 44% | 24% | 21% | 9% | – | – | – | 3% | 20% |
Panelbase | Wings Over Scotland | 21–27 Jun 2018 | 1,018 | 41% | 27% | 22% | 6% | 2% | 1% | – | <1% | 14% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 8–13 Jun 2018 | 1,021 | 40% | 28% | 24% | 6% | 2% | <1% | – | <1% | 12% |
YouGov | The Times | 1–5 Jun 2018 | 1,075 | 41% | 27% | 22% | 6% | 2% | 1% | – | 1% | 14% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 23–28 Mar 2018 | 1,037 | 40% | 28% | 22% | 6% | 3% | <1% | – | <1% | 12% |
Survation | Daily Record | 24–28 Jan 2018 | 1,029 | 42% | 25% | 25% | 6% | – | – | – | 2% | 17% |
YouGov | The Times | 12–16 Jan 2018 | 1,002 | 38% | 26% | 23% | 7% | 3% | 2% | – | 0% | 12% |
Panelbase | Wings Over Scotland | 15–20 Dec 2017 | 1,022 | 39% | 26% | 25% | 6% | 2% | <1% | – | <1% | 13% |
Survation | The Sunday Post | 1–5 Dec 2017 | 1,006 | 39% | 24% | 28% | 7% | – | – | – | 2% | 11% |
Survation | Daily Record | 27–30 Nov 2017 | 1,017 | 39% | 24% | 25% | 8% | – | – | – | 3% | 14% |
Richard Leonard is elected leader of Scottish Labour [15] | ||||||||||||
YouGov | The Times | 2–5 Oct 2017 | 1,135 | 42% | 25% | 25% | 5% | 2% | 1% | – | 0% | 17% |
Survation | Scottish Daily Mail | 8–12 Sep 2017 | 1,016 | 42% | 26% | 25% | 7% | – | – | – | 2% | 16% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 31 Aug – 7 Sep 2017 | 1,021 | 42% | 28% | 22% | 6% | 2% | <1% | – | <1% | 14% |
2017 United Kingdom general election [16] | ||||||||||||
2017 Scottish local elections [17] | ||||||||||||
YouGov | The Times | 9–14 Mar 2017 | 1,028 | 51% | 24% | 14% | 6% | 4% | 1% | – | 1% | 27% |
YouGov | The Times | 24–29 Nov 2016 | 1,134 | 48% | 25% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | – | 0% | 23% |
BMG | N/A | 28 Sep – 4 Oct 2016 | 1,010 | 51% | 21% | 18% | 7% | – | – | – | 3% | 30% |
YouGov | The Times | 29–31 Aug 2016 | 1,039 | 52% | 21% | 16% | 5% | 3% | 2% | – | 0% | 31% |
Survation | Scottish Daily Mail | 24–28 Jun 2016 | 1,055 | 50% | 21% | 18% | 8% | – | – | – | 4% | 29% |
2016 Scottish Parliament election | 5 May 2016 | – | 46.5% | 22.0% | 22.6% | 7.8% | 0.6% | – | – | 0.5% | 23.9% | |
The opinion polls below are gauge voting intentions for the 56 regional list seats elected through the additional member system.
Pollster | Client | Date(s) conducted | Sample size | SNP | Con | Lab | Green | Lib Dem | Alba | UKIP | Ref UK | SSP | Other | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2021 Scottish Parliament election | 6 May 2021 | – | 40.3% | 23.5% | 17.9% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.2% | – | 3.0% [nb 5] | 16.8% | |
BBC Scotland leaders' debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Harvie [18] | ||||||||||||||
YouGov | The Times | 2–4 May 2021 | 1,144 | 38% | 22% | 16% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | – | 3% [nb 6] | 16% |
Survation | The Courier | 30 Apr – 4 May 2021 | 1,008 | 36% | 21% | 19% | 10% | 7% | 3% | – | – | – | – | 15% |
Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 30 Apr – 4 May 2021 | 1,001 | 34% | 23% | 19% | 9% | 6% | 2% | – | – | – | – | 11% |
Ipsos MORI | STV News | 30 Apr – 3 May 2021 | 1,502 | 39% | 23% | 18% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | – | 2% [nb 6] | 16% |
Opinium | Sky News | 28 Apr – 3 May 2021 | 1,015 | 41% | 23% | 17% | 8% | 6% | 3% | – | – | – | – | 18% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 28–30 Apr 2021 | 1,096 | 39% | 22% | 16% | 8% | 7% | 4% | – | – | – | 4% [nb 7] | 17% |
BMG | The Herald | 27–30 Apr 2021 | 1,023 | 37% | 22% | 17% | 9% | 8% | 4% | – | – | – | – [nb 7] | 15% |
Channel 4 News leaders' debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Harvie [3] | ||||||||||||||
Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 23–27 Apr 2021 | 1,001 | 36% | 22% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | – | – | – | 8% | 14% |
Survation | GMB | 23–26 Apr 2021 | 1,008 | 37% | 22% | 18% | 10% | 7% | 2% | – | 1% | – | 1% | 15% |
Panelbase | Scot Goes Pop | 21–26 Apr 2021 | 1,075 | 36% | 21% | 18% | 10% | 6% | 6% | – | – | – | – [nb 7] | 15% |
Survation | The Sunday Post | 20–22 Apr 2021 | 1,037 | 35% | 20% | 22% | 10% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% | – | 2% | 13% |
Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 16–20 Apr 2021 | 1,001 | 38% | 23% | 17% | 7% | 5% | 1% | – | – | – | 7% | 15% |
YouGov | The Times | 16–20 Apr 2021 | 1,204 | 39% | 22% | 17% | 10% | 5% | 2% | – | 1% | – | 2% | 17% |
STV leaders debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Harvie [18] | ||||||||||||||
Panelbase | Believe in Scotland | 9–12 Apr 2021 | 1,002 | 36% | 22% | 17% | 9% | 6% | 6% | – | – | – | 4% [nb 7] | 14% |
Lord Ashcroft | N/A | 7–19 Apr 2021 | 2,017 | 42% | 22% | 16% | 9% | 7% | 2% | – | 2% | – | – | 20% |
Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 2–7 Apr 2021 | 1,007 | 40% | 21% | 18% | 9% | 7% | 3% | – | – | – | 3% | 19% |
Opinium | Sky News | 1–6 Apr 2021 | 1,023 | 44% | 22% | 17% | 7% | 5% | 2% | – | – | – | 3% | 22% |
Ipsos MORI | STV News | 30 Mar – 4 Apr 2021 | 1,038 | 38% | 21% | 18% | 12% | 6% | 3% | – | – | – | 2% | 17% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 30 Mar – 1 Apr 2021 | 1,009 | 39% | 21% | 17% | 8% | 5% | 6% | – | – | – | 4% [nb 8] | 18% |
BBC Scotland leaders debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Slater [5] | ||||||||||||||
Survation | The Courier | 29–30 Mar 2021 | 1,000 | 38% | 18% | 19% | 11% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | – | 1% | 19% |
Former first minister Alex Salmond launches the Alba Party [6] | ||||||||||||||
Find Out Now | Daily Express | 23–26 Mar 2021 | 1,022 | 42% | 21% | 16% | 11% | 5% | – | – | 2% | – | 2% | 21% |
YouGov | The Times | 19–22 Mar 2021 | N/A | 46% | 24% | 15% | 8% | 5% | – | – | – | – | 3% | 22% |
BMG | The Herald | 16–19 Mar 2021 | 1,021 | 42% | 22% | 17% | 8% | 8% | – | – | 1% | – | 2% | 20% |
Survation | The Courier | 11–18 Mar 2021 | 1,515 | 39% | 19% | 20% | 11% | 7% | – | – | 1% | – | 2% | 19% |
Opinium | Sky News | 11–16 Mar 2021 | 1,096 | 42% | 22% | 19% | 7% | 5% | – | – | – | – | 4% | 20% |
Survation | Scotland in Union | 9–12 Mar 2021 | 1,011 | 39% | 21% | 20% | 10% | 8% | – | – | – | – | 2% | 18% |
Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 5–10 Mar 2021 | 1,009 | 40% | 24% | 18% | 10% | 6% | – | – | – | – | 2% | 16% |
YouGov | The Times | 4–8 Mar 2021 | 1,100 | 45% | 21% | 16% | 6% | 5% | – | – | – | 3% | 4% | 24% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 3–5 Mar 2021 | 1,013 | 42% | 22% | 19% | 6% | 7% | – | – | – | – | 4% | 20% |
Anas Sarwar is elected leader of Scottish Labour [7] | ||||||||||||||
Survation | Daily Record | 24–25 Feb 2021 | 1,011 | 38% | 21% | 20% | 11% | 7% | – | – | – | – | 3% | 17% |
Ipsos MORI | STV News | 15–21 Feb 2021 | 1,031 | 47% | 22% | 14% | 8% | 6% | – | – | – | – | 3% [nb 9] | 25% |
Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 4–9 Feb 2021 | 1,002 | 39% | 21% | 21% | 10% | 9% | – | – | – | – | 3% | 18% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 19–22 Jan 2021 | 1,059 | 46% | 20% | 16% | 8% | 6% | – | – | – | – | 3% | 26% |
Survation | Scot Goes Pop | 11–13 Jan 2021 | 1,020 | 40% | 17% | 19% | 11% | 9% | – | – | – | – | – | 19% |
Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 8–13 Jan 2021 | 1,016 | 40% | 18% | 20% | 10% | 9% | – | – | – | – | 3% | 20% |
The Brexit Party is re-registered as Reform UK [8] | ||||||||||||||
Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 11–15 Dec 2020 | 1,013 | 39% | 20% | 20% | 11% | 7% | – | – | – | – | 3% | 19% |
Survation | N/A | 4–9 Dec 2020 | 1,010 | 41% | 18% | 20% | 10% | 7% | – | – | 1% | – | – | 21% |
Ipsos MORI | STV News | 20–26 Nov 2020 | 1,006 | 47% | 22% | 16% | 7% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | 25% |
Panelbase | Scot Goes Pop | 5–11 Nov 2020 | 1,020 | 46% | 20% | 18% | 8% | 6% | – | – | – | – | 3% | 26% |
YouGov | N/A | 6–10 Nov 2020 | 1,089 | 47% | 20% | 13% | 7% | 6% | – | – | – | 3% | – | 27% |
Survation | N/A | 28 Oct – 3 Nov 2020 | 1,071 | 43% | 17% | 19% | 10% | 7% | – | 1% | 2% | – | 1% | 24% |
Ipsos MORI | STV News | 2–9 Oct 2020 | 1,045 | 48% | 18% | 14% | 9% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | 30% |
Savanta ComRes | N/A | 9 Oct 2020 | 1,003 | 41% | 21% | 18% | 11% | 7% | – | – | – | – | 1% | 20% |
JL Partners | Politico | 17–21 Sep 2020 | 1,016 | 53% | 19% | 13% | 5% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | 34% |
Survation | N/A | 2–7 Sep 2020 | 1,018 | 42% | 18% | 18% | 10% | 8% | – | 2% | 2% | – | <1% | 24% |
Savanta ComRes | N/A | 6–13 Aug 2020 | 1,008 | 43% | 21% | 17% | 10% | 8% | – | – | – | – | 2% | 22% |
YouGov | The Times | 6–10 Aug 2020 | 1,142 | 47% | 21% | 14% | 6% | 7% | – | – | 1% | 4% | 1% | 26% |
Douglas Ross becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives [9] | ||||||||||||||
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 30 Jun – 3 Jul 2020 | 1,026 | 50% | 18% | 15% | 8% | 6% | – | – | – | – | 2% | 32% |
Panelbase | Scot Goes Pop | 1–5 Jun 2020 | 1,022 | 48% | 19% | 16% | 7% | 8% | – | – | – | – | 2% | 29% |
Panelbase | Wings Over Scotland | 1–5 May 2020 | 1,086 | 48% | 22% | 15% | 7% | 6% | – | – | – | – | 1% | 26% |
YouGov | N/A | 24–27 Apr 2020 | 1,095 | 45% | 23% | 12% | 8% | 7% | – | – | – | 4% | 1% | 22% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 24–26 Mar 2020 | 1,023 | 48% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 6% | – | – | – | – | 1% | 22% |
Jackson Carlaw is elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives [10] | ||||||||||||||
Panelbase | Scot Goes Pop | 28–31 Jan 2020 | 1,016 | 47% | 25% | 14% | 7% | 7% | – | – | – | – | <1% | 22% |
Survation | Progress Scotland | 20–22 Jan 2020 | 1,019 | 38% | 21% | 19% | 9% | 9% | – | 1% | 2% | – | – | 17% |
2019 United Kingdom general election [11] | ||||||||||||||
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 3–6 Dec 2019 | 1,020 | 38% | 26% | 18% | 6% | 9% | – | – | 2% | – | – | 12% |
YouGov | The Times | 29 Nov – 3 Dec 2019 | 1,002 | 37% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 10% | – | – | 2% | 3% | <1% [nb 1] | 12% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 20–22 Nov 2019 | 1,009 | 39% | 25% | 17% | 6% | 9% | – | – | 3% | – | – | 14% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 9–11 Oct 2019 | 1,003 | 38% | 21% | 18% | 6% | 11% | – | <1% | 4% | – | <1% | 17% |
YouGov | The Times | 30 Aug – 3 Sep 2019 | 1,059 | 39% | 20% | 11% | 8% | 13% | – | 1% | 5% | 3% | <1% [nb 1] | 19% |
Shetland by-election [12] | ||||||||||||||
Lorna Slater is elected co-leader of the Scottish Greens alongside Patrick Harvie [13] | ||||||||||||||
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 18–20 Jun 2019 | 1,024 | 39% | 20% | 16% | 7% | 10% | – | <1% | 6% | – | <1% [nb 2] | 19% |
2019 European Parliament election [14] | ||||||||||||||
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 14–17 May 2019 | 1,021 | 37% | 19% | 18% | 7% | 8% | – | 2% | 6% | – | 2% [nb 4] | 18% |
YouGov | The Times | 24–26 Apr 2019 | 1,029 | 37% | 20% | 15% | 10% | 7% | – | 2% | 5% | 3% | 2% [nb 4] | 17% |
Panelbase | N/A | 18–24 Apr 2019 | 1,018 | 37% | 22% | 19% | 7% | 7% | – | 2% | 4% | – | 2% [nb 4] | 15% |
Panelbase | Wings Over Scotland | 28 Feb – 6 Mar 2019 | 1,002 | 36% | 26% | 19% | 6% | 9% | – | 3% | – | – | <1% | 10% |
Survation | Scottish Daily Mail | 1–4 Mar 2019 | 1,011 | 32% | 22% | 19% | 11% | 11% | – | 3% | – | – | 1% | 10% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 30 Nov – 5 Dec 2018 | 1,028 | 38% | 26% | 22% | 6% | 7% | – | 1% | – | – | <1% | 12% |
Panelbase | Constitutional Commission | 2–7 Nov 2018 | 1,050 | 37% | 26% | 22% | 6% | 6% | – | 2% | – | – | <1% | 11% |
Survation | Daily Record | 18–21 Oct 2018 | 1,017 | 32% | 23% | 23% | 9% | 9% | – | – | – | – | 4% | 9% |
Survation | SNP | 3–5 Oct 2018 | 1,013 | 40% | 25% | 22% | 4% | 8% | – | – | – | – | 2% | 15% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 28 Sep – 4 Oct 2018 | 1,024 | 35% | 26% | 20% | 7% | 8% | – | 2% | – | – | 1% | 9% |
Survation | The Sunday Post | 28 Sep – 2 Oct 2018 | 1,036 | 32% | 21% | 23% | 10% | 8% | – | 5% | – | – | 0% | 9% |
Survation | Daily Record | 5–10 Jul 2018 | 1,004 | 33% | 19% | 21% | 11% | 10% | – | 5% | – | – | 1% | 12% |
Panelbase | Wings Over Scotland | 21–27 Jun 2018 | 1,018 | 36% | 27% | 23% | 6% | 7% | – | 1% | – | – | <1% | 9% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 8–13 Jun 2018 | 1,021 | 36% | 26% | 23% | 7% | 6% | – | 1% | – | – | <1% | 10% |
YouGov | The Times | 1–5 Jun 2018 | 1,075 | 32% | 26% | 21% | 9% | 7% | – | 1% | – | 3% | <1% | 6% |
Survation | Daily Record | 24–28 Jan 2018 | 1,029 | 33% | 23% | 23% | 9% | 8% | – | 3% | – | – | 1% | 10% |
YouGov | The Times | 12–16 Jan 2018 | 1,002 | 32% | 25% | 22% | 10% | 7% | – | 3% | – | 2% | <1% | 7% |
Survation | The Sunday Post | 1–5 Dec 2017 | 1,006 | 32% | 21% | 24% | 10% | 10% | – | 3% | – | – | 1% | 8% |
Survation | Daily Record | 27–30 Nov 2017 | 1,017 | 33% | 22% | 25% | 8% | 8% | – | 3% | – | – | <1% | 8% |
Richard Leonard is elected leader of Scottish Labour [15] | ||||||||||||||
YouGov | The Times | 2–5 Oct 2017 | 1,135 | 35% | 23% | 24% | 6% | 6% | – | 1% | – | 3% | <1% | 11% |
Survation | Scottish Daily Mail | 8–12 Sep 2017 | 1,016 | 31% | 21% | 25% | 9% | 10% | – | 3% | – | – | <1% | 6% |
2017 United Kingdom general election [16] | ||||||||||||||
2017 Scottish local elections [17] | ||||||||||||||
YouGov | The Times | 9–14 Mar 2017 | 1,028 | 40% | 25% | 14% | 12% | 5% | – | 2% | – | 1% [lower-alpha 1] | 1% | 15% |
YouGov | The Times | 24–29 Nov 2016 | 1,134 | 39% | 24% | 14% | 11% | 6% | – | 4% | – | 1% [lower-alpha 1] | 0% | 15% |
BMG | N/A | 28 Sep – 4 Oct 2016 | 1,010 | 43% | 20% | 16% | 8% | 7% | – | 3% | – | – | 1% | 23% |
YouGov | The Times | 29–31 Aug 2016 | 1,039 | 45% | 21% | 15% | 9% | 6% | – | 2% | – | – | 0% | 24% |
Survation | Scottish Daily Mail | 24–28 Jun 2016 | 1,055 | 41% | 20% | 16% | 12% | 7% | – | 4% | – | – | 1% | 21% |
2016 Scottish Parliament election | 5 May 2016 | – | 41.7% | 22.9% | 19.1% | 6.6% | 5.2% | – | 2.0% | – | 0.5% [lower-alpha 2] | 2.4% | 18.8% | |
Each polling organisation are members of the British Polling Council and uses slightly different methodology in their collection of data. All organisations remove voters who do not give a voting intention from their headline figures; this is usually ranges from 10% to 15% of respondents likely to vote. A brief description of each company's methods is as follows:
Scottish independence is the idea of Scotland regaining its independence and once again becoming a sovereign state, independent from the United Kingdom. The term Scottish independence refers to the political movement that is campaigning to bring it about.
In Scotland, the Scottish National Party (SNP) is a left social democratic political party which campaigns for Scottish independence. The SNP has controlled Scotland's devolved legislature since the 2007 election as a minority government, and were a majority government from the 2011 election and have been a minority government, since the 2016 election.
Unionism in Scotland is a political movement which favours the continuation of the political union between Scotland and the other countries of the United Kingdom, and hence is opposed to Scottish independence. Scotland is one of four countries of the United Kingdom which has its own devolved government and Scottish Parliament, as well as representation in the UK Parliament. There are many strands of political Unionism in Scotland, some of which have ties to Unionism and Loyalism in Northern Ireland. The two main political parties in the UK — the Conservatives and Labour — both support Scotland remaining part of the UK.
The 2010 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday 6 May 2010, to elect Members of Parliament to the House of Commons. The election took place in 650 constituencies across the United Kingdom under the first-past-the-post system.
Scottish Labour, officially the Scottish Labour Party, is the part of the UK Labour Party active in Scotland. Ideologically social democratic and unionist, it holds 22 of 129 seats in the Scottish Parliament and 2 of 59 Scottish seats in the House of Commons. It is represented by 262 of the 1,227 local councillors across Scotland. The Scottish Labour party has no separate Chief Whip at Westminster.
The 2011 Scottish Parliament election was held on Thursday, 5 May 2011 to elect 129 members to the Scottish Parliament.
This is a list of opinion polls for the 2007 Scottish Parliament election. The first figure for each party is for the 1st, first-past-the-post, constituency, vote; the second figure is for the 2nd, proportional representation, regional, vote. The Scottish Greens and the Scottish Socialist Party ran only one constituency candidate each in the 2007 election so constituency values in polls for those parties have little meaning.
A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom was held in Scotland on 18 September 2014. The referendum question was, "Should Scotland be an independent country?", which voters answered with "Yes" or "No". The "No" side won with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the January 1910 general election, which was held before the introduction of universal suffrage.
In the run up to the general election on 7 May 2015, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.
In the run up to the general election of 2001, several polling organisations carried out opinion polling in regards to voting intention in Great Britain. Results of such polls are displayed below.
This page lists the public opinion polls that were conducted in relation to the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, that was held on 18 September 2014. Overall, polls showed that support for a "No" vote was dominant until the end of August 2014, when support for a "Yes" vote gained momentum and the gap closed significantly, with at least one poll placing the "Yes" vote ahead. In the final week of the campaign, polls showed the "No" vote to be consistently but somewhat narrowly ahead. There were no exit polls although a YouGov post-election poll was published shortly after the polls closed. For the history of the campaign itself see 2014 Scottish independence referendum, Yes Scotland, and Better Together (campaign).
The 2015 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday 7 May 2015 to elect 650 Members of Parliament to the House of Commons. It was the only general election held under the rules of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 and was the last general election to be held before the United Kingdom would vote to end its membership of the European Union (EU). Local elections took place in most areas of England on the same day.
In the run-up to the general election on 8 June 2017, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.
A general election was held in the United Kingdom on 7 May 2015 and all 59 seats in Scotland were contested under the first-past-the-post, single-member district electoral system. Unlike the 2010 general election, where no seats changed party, the Scottish National Party (SNP) won all but three seats in Scotland in an unprecedented landslide victory, gaining a total of 56 seats. The SNP received what remains the largest number of votes gained by a single political party in a United Kingdom general election in Scotland in British history, breaking the previous record set by the Labour Party in 1964 and taking the largest share of the Scottish vote in sixty years, at approximately 50 per cent.
The 2017 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday 8 June 2017, two years after the previous general election in 2015; it was the first since 1992 to be held on a day that did not coincide with any local elections. The governing Conservative Party remained the largest single party in the House of Commons but lost its small overall majority, resulting in the formation of a Conservative minority government with a confidence and supply agreement with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) of Northern Ireland.
A second referendum on the independence of Scotland from the United Kingdom (UK) has been proposed by the Scottish Government. An independence referendum was first held on 18 September 2014, with 55% voting "No" to independence. The Scottish Government stated in its white paper for independence that voting Yes was a "once in a generation opportunity to follow a different path, and choose a new and better direction for our nation". Following the "No" vote, the cross party Smith Commission proposed areas that could be devolved to the Scottish Parliament; this led to the passing of the Scotland Act 2016, formalising new devolved policy areas in time for the 2016 Scottish Parliament election campaign.
Opinion polling on Scottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations. This article concerns well over 240 polls carried out since the 2014 Scottish independence referendum. Polling conducted before the referendum can be found here. Polls listed here, except as noted, are by members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.
A general election was held in the United Kingdom on Thursday 8 June 2017; all 59 seats in Scotland were contested under the first-past-the-post electoral system.
Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election is being carried out continually by various organisations to gauge voting intention. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2019 general election on 12 December to the present day.
The 2019 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday 12 December 2019, two and a half years after the previous general election in June 2017. The Scottish National Party (SNP) received the most votes and won 48 out of 59 seats—a gain of 13 over those won in 2017, and 81% of the Scottish seats in the House of Commons.