In the run-up to the 2021 Scottish Parliament election, various organisations conducted opinion polls to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. Most of the pollsters listed were members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abided by its disclosure rules.
The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous Scottish Parliament election, held on 5 May 2016, to the 2021 election, held on 6 May 2021. [1]
This graph shows opinion poll results with trendlines for the 30-day moving averages. The SNP led in all polls, with the Conservatives and Labour coming second or third behind them.
SNP – Scottish National Party
Conservative – Scottish Conservatives
Labour – Scottish Labour
Lib Dem – Scottish Liberal Democrats
Green – Scottish Greens
UKIP – UK Independence Party
Reform – Reform UK
SSP – Scottish Socialist Party
Alba – Alba Party
AFU – All for Unity
The opinion polls below are gauge voting intentions for the 73 single member constituency seats elected through the plurality voting system.
Pollster | Client | Date(s) conducted | Sample size | SNP | Con | Lab | Lib Dem | Green | UKIP | Ref UK | Other | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2021 Scottish Parliament election | 6 May 2021 | – | 47.7% | 21.9% | 21.6% | 6.9% | 1.3% | 0.0% | – | 0.6% | 25.8% | |
BBC Scotland leaders' debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Harvie [2] | ||||||||||||
YouGov | The Times | 2–4 May 2021 | 1,144 | 52% | 20% | 19% | 6% | 2% | – | – | 1% | 32% |
Survation | The Courier | 30 Apr – 4 May 2021 | 1,008 | 49% | 21% | 21% | 8% | 1% | – | – | 1% | 28% |
Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 30 Apr – 4 May 2021 | 1,001 | 42% | 25% | 22% | 8% | – | – | – | 3% | 17% |
Ipsos MORI | STV News | 30 Apr – 3 May 2021 | 1,502 | 50% | 20% | 22% | 6% | 2% | – | – | 1% | 28% |
Opinium | Sky News | 28 Apr – 3 May 2021 | 1,015 | 51% | 23% | 19% | 7% | – | – | – | – | 28% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 28–30 Apr 2021 | 1,096 | 48% | 21% | 20% | 7% | 3% | – | – | 1% | 27% |
BMG | The Herald | 27–30 Apr 2021 | 1,023 | 49% | 19% | 21% | 9% | – | – | – | – | 28% |
Channel 4 News leaders' debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Harvie [3] | ||||||||||||
Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 23–27 Apr 2021 | 1,001 | 45% | 23% | 23% | 7% | – | – | – | 1% | 22% |
Survation | GMB | 23–26 Apr 2021 | 1,008 | 47% | 21% | 21% | 8% | – | – | – | 2% | 26% |
Panelbase | Scot Goes Pop | 21–26 Apr 2021 | 1,075 | 45% | 20% | 22% | 8% | 4% | – | – | – | 23% |
Survation | The Sunday Post | 20–22 Apr 2021 | 1,037 | 50% | 21% | 21% | 7% | 1% | – | – | 1% | 29% |
Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 16–20 Apr 2021 | 1,001 | 46% | 25% | 20% | 6% | – | – | – | 3% | 21% |
YouGov | The Times | 16–20 Apr 2021 | 1,204 | 49% | 21% | 21% | 6% | 1% | – | – | 2% | 28% |
STV leaders' debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Harvie [4] | ||||||||||||
Panelbase | Believe in Scotland | 9–12 Apr 2021 | 1,002 | 47% | 23% | 20% | 6% | 4% | – | – | – | 24% |
Lord Ashcroft | N/A | 7–19 Apr 2021 | 2,017 | 49% | 22% | 15% | 8% | 5% | – | – | – | 27% |
Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 2–7 Apr 2021 | 1,007 | 49% | 23% | 18% | 6% | – | – | – | 3% | 26% |
Opinium | Sky News | 1–6 Apr 2021 | 1,023 | 53% | 21% | 18% | 6% | – | – | – | 1% | 32% |
Ipsos MORI | STV News | 30 Mar – 4 Apr 2021 | 1,038 | 53% | 20% | 18% | 6% | 2% | – | – | 1% | 33% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 30 Mar – 1 Apr 2021 | 1,009 | 49% | 22% | 20% | 6% | 2% | – | – | – | 27% |
BBC Scotland leaders' debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Slater [5] | ||||||||||||
Survation | The Courier | 29–30 Mar 2021 | 1,000 | 49% | 21% | 20% | 9% | 1% | – | – | – | 28% |
Former first minister Alex Salmond launches the Alba Party [6] | ||||||||||||
Find Out Now | Daily Express | 23–26 Mar 2021 | 1,022 | 50% | 21% | 17% | 5% | 4% | – | 1% | 1% | 29% |
YouGov | The Times | 19–22 Mar 2021 | N/A | 50% | 24% | 17% | 5% | 2% | – | – | 2% | 26% |
BMG | The Herald | 16–19 Mar 2021 | 1,021 | 48% | 21% | 20% | 8% | 1% | – | – | 1% | 27% |
Survation | The Courier | 11–18 Mar 2021 | 1,515 | 50% | 21% | 20% | 8% | 1% | – | – | – | 29% |
Opinium | Sky News | 11–16 Mar 2021 | 1,096 | 46% | 24% | 20% | 6% | 4% | – | – | 1% | 22% |
Survation | Scotland in Union | 9–12 Mar 2021 | 1,011 | 46% | 21% | 23% | 8% | 1% | – | – | 1% | 23% |
Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 5–10 Mar 2021 | 1,009 | 48% | 23% | 20% | 8% | – | – | – | 2% | 25% |
YouGov | The Times | 4–8 Mar 2021 | 1,100 | 52% | 22% | 17% | 6% | 2% | – | – | 1% | 30% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 3–5 Mar 2021 | 1,013 | 47% | 23% | 20% | 7% | 2% | – | – | 1% | 24% |
Anas Sarwar is elected leader of Scottish Labour [7] | ||||||||||||
Survation | Daily Record | 24–25 Feb 2021 | 1,011 | 50% | 21% | 20% | 7% | 3% | – | – | 2% | 29% |
Ipsos MORI | STV News | 15–21 Feb 2021 | 1,031 | 52% | 23% | 15% | 5% | 3% | – | – | 2% | 29% |
Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 4–9 Feb 2021 | 1,002 | 50% | 23% | 19% | 6% | – | – | – | 2% | 27% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 19–22 Jan 2021 | 1,059 | 52% | 20% | 17% | 6% | 3% | – | – | – | 32% |
Survation | Scot Goes Pop | 11–13 Jan 2021 | 1,020 | 51% | 19% | 19% | 9% | – | – | – | – | 32% |
Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 8–13 Jan 2021 | 1,016 | 49% | 20% | 20% | 8% | – | – | – | 4% | 29% |
The Brexit Party is re-registered as Reform UK [8] | ||||||||||||
Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 11–15 Dec 2020 | 1,013 | 52% | 19% | 19% | 7% | – | – | – | 3% | 33% |
Survation | N/A | 4–9 Dec 2020 | 1,010 | 53% | 20% | 20% | 6% | 1% | – | – | – | 33% |
Ipsos MORI | STV News | 20–26 Nov 2020 | 1,006 | 55% | 22% | 14% | 6% | 1% | – | – | 1% | 33% |
Panelbase | Scot Goes Pop | 5–11 Nov 2020 | 1,020 | 53% | 21% | 18% | 5% | 3% | – | – | <1% | 32% |
YouGov | N/A | 6–10 Nov 2020 | 1,089 | 56% | 19% | 15% | 6% | 2% | – | – | – | 37% |
Survation | N/A | 28 Oct – 3 Nov 2020 | 1,071 | 54% | 19% | 18% | 8% | – | – | – | 2% | 35% |
Ipsos MORI | STV News | 2–9 Oct 2020 | 1,045 | 58% | 19% | 13% | 8% | 1% | – | – | 2% | 39% |
Savanta ComRes | N/A | 9 Oct 2020 | 1,003 | 50% | 23% | 18% | 6% | – | – | – | 2% | 27% |
JL Partners | Politico | 17–21 Sep 2020 | 1,016 | 58% | 19% | 13% | 8% | 2% | – | – | <1% | 39% |
Survation | N/A | 2–7 Sep 2020 | 1,018 | 53% | 20% | 18% | 7% | – | – | – | 2% | 33% |
Savanta ComRes | N/A | 6–13 Aug 2020 | 1,008 | 51% | 24% | 17% | 6% | – | – | – | 2% | 27% |
YouGov | The Times | 6–10 Aug 2020 | 1,142 | 57% | 20% | 14% | 8% | 1% | – | – | 1% | 37% |
Douglas Ross becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives [9] | ||||||||||||
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 30 Jun – 3 Jul 2020 | 1,026 | 55% | 20% | 15% | 6% | 3% | – | – | <1% | 35% |
Panelbase | Scot Goes Pop | 1–5 Jun 2020 | 1,022 | 53% | 21% | 16% | 6% | 3% | – | – | <1% | 32% |
Panelbase | Wings Over Scotland | 1–5 May 2020 | 1,086 | 53% | 23% | 15% | 5% | 3% | – | – | 1% | 30% |
YouGov | N/A | 24–27 Apr 2020 | 1,095 | 54% | 23% | 12% | 8% | 2% | – | – | 1% | 31% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 24–26 Mar 2020 | 1,023 | 51% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | – | – | <1% | 25% |
Jackson Carlaw is elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives [10] | ||||||||||||
Panelbase | Scot Goes Pop | 28–31 Jan 2020 | 1,016 | 50% | 26% | 14% | 7% | 3% | – | – | <1% | 24% |
Survation | Progress Scotland | 20–22 Jan 2020 | 1,019 | 51% | 23% | 17% | 7% | – | – | – | 1% | 28% |
2019 United Kingdom general election [11] | ||||||||||||
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 3–6 Dec 2019 | 1,020 | 43% | 26% | 19% | 8% | 2% | – | 2% | <1% | 17% |
YouGov | The Times | 29 Nov – 3 Dec 2019 | 1,002 | 46% | 26% | 14% | 11% | 1% | – | 0% | 0% [nb 1] | 20% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 20–22 Nov 2019 | 1,009 | 43% | 26% | 17% | 9% | 2% | – | 3% | <1% | 17% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 9–11 Oct 2019 | 1,003 | 42% | 21% | 19% | 10% | 3% | <1% | 4% | <1% | 21% |
YouGov | The Times | 29 Aug – 3 Sep 2019 | 1,059 | 45% | 23% | 13% | 12% | 2% | – | 3% | 1% [nb 1] | 22% |
Shetland by-election [12] | ||||||||||||
Lorna Slater is elected co-leader of the Scottish Greens alongside Patrick Harvie [13] | ||||||||||||
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 18–20 Jun 2019 | 1,024 | 42% | 20% | 16% | 11% | 3% | <1% | 7% | <1% [nb 2] | 22% |
2019 European Parliament election [14] | ||||||||||||
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 14–17 May 2019 | 1,021 | 41% | 20% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 7% | 1% [nb 3] | 21% |
YouGov | The Times | 24–26 Apr 2019 | 1,029 | 46% | 22% | 16% | 7% | 3% | – | 4% | 1% [nb 3] | 24% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 18–24 Apr 2019 | 1,018 | 40% | 22% | 20% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 2% [nb 4] | 18% |
Panelbase | Wings Over Scotland | 28 Feb – 6 Mar 2019 | 1,002 | 41% | 27% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 2% | – | <1% | 14% |
Survation | Scottish Daily Mail | 1–4 Mar 2019 | 1,011 | 43% | 24% | 22% | 9% | – | – | – | 2% | 19% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 30 Nov – 5 Dec 2018 | 1,028 | 41% | 25% | 23% | 6% | 3% | 1% | – | <1% | 16% |
Panelbase | Constitutional Commission | 2–7 Nov 2018 | 1,050 | 39% | 27% | 24% | 6% | 3% | 1% | – | <1% | 12% |
Survation | Daily Record | 18–21 Oct 2018 | 1,017 | 38% | 26% | 25% | 9% | 1% | – | – | 0% | 12% |
Survation/SNP | N/A | 3–5 Oct 2018 | 1,013 | 44% | 24% | 23% | 8% | – | – | – | 1% | 20% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 28 Sep – 4 Oct 2018 | 1,024 | 41% | 26% | 21% | 6% | 3% | 2% | – | <1% | 15% |
Survation | The Sunday Post | 28 Sep – 2 Oct 2018 | 1,036 | 43% | 24% | 23% | 9% | – | – | – | 2% | 19% |
Survation | Daily Record | 5–10 Jul 2018 | 1,004 | 44% | 24% | 21% | 9% | – | – | – | 3% | 20% |
Panelbase | Wings Over Scotland | 21–27 Jun 2018 | 1,018 | 41% | 27% | 22% | 6% | 2% | 1% | – | <1% | 14% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 8–13 Jun 2018 | 1,021 | 40% | 28% | 24% | 6% | 2% | <1% | – | <1% | 12% |
YouGov | The Times | 1–5 Jun 2018 | 1,075 | 41% | 27% | 22% | 6% | 2% | 1% | – | 1% | 14% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 23–28 Mar 2018 | 1,037 | 40% | 28% | 22% | 6% | 3% | <1% | – | <1% | 12% |
Survation | Daily Record | 24–28 Jan 2018 | 1,029 | 42% | 25% | 25% | 6% | – | – | – | 2% | 17% |
YouGov | The Times | 12–16 Jan 2018 | 1,002 | 38% | 26% | 23% | 7% | 3% | 2% | – | 0% | 12% |
Panelbase | Wings Over Scotland | 15–20 Dec 2017 | 1,022 | 39% | 26% | 25% | 6% | 2% | <1% | – | <1% | 13% |
Survation | The Sunday Post | 1–5 Dec 2017 | 1,006 | 39% | 24% | 28% | 7% | – | – | – | 2% | 11% |
Survation | Daily Record | 27–30 Nov 2017 | 1,017 | 39% | 24% | 25% | 8% | – | – | – | 3% | 14% |
Richard Leonard is elected leader of Scottish Labour [15] | ||||||||||||
YouGov | The Times | 2–5 Oct 2017 | 1,135 | 42% | 25% | 25% | 5% | 2% | 1% | – | 0% | 17% |
Survation | Scottish Daily Mail | 8–12 Sep 2017 | 1,016 | 42% | 26% | 25% | 7% | – | – | – | 2% | 16% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 31 Aug – 7 Sep 2017 | 1,021 | 42% | 28% | 22% | 6% | 2% | <1% | – | <1% | 14% |
2017 United Kingdom general election [16] | ||||||||||||
2017 Scottish local elections [17] | ||||||||||||
YouGov | The Times | 9–14 Mar 2017 | 1,028 | 51% | 24% | 14% | 6% | 4% | 1% | – | 1% | 27% |
YouGov | The Times | 24–29 Nov 2016 | 1,134 | 48% | 25% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | – | 0% | 23% |
BMG | N/A | 28 Sep – 4 Oct 2016 | 1,010 | 51% | 21% | 18% | 7% | – | – | – | 3% | 30% |
YouGov | The Times | 29–31 Aug 2016 | 1,039 | 52% | 21% | 16% | 5% | 3% | 2% | – | 0% | 31% |
Survation | Scottish Daily Mail | 24–28 Jun 2016 | 1,055 | 50% | 21% | 18% | 8% | – | – | – | 4% | 29% |
2016 Scottish Parliament election | 5 May 2016 | – | 46.5% | 22.0% | 22.6% | 7.8% | 0.6% | – | – | 0.5% | 23.9% | |
The opinion polls below are gauge voting intentions for the 56 regional list seats elected through the additional member system.
Pollster | Client | Date(s) conducted | Sample size | SNP | Con | Lab | Green | Lib Dem | Alba | UKIP | Ref UK | SSP | Other | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2021 Scottish Parliament election | 6 May 2021 | – | 40.3% | 23.5% | 17.9% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.2% | – | 3.0% [nb 5] | 16.8% | |
BBC Scotland leaders' debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Harvie [18] | ||||||||||||||
YouGov | The Times | 2–4 May 2021 | 1,144 | 38% | 22% | 16% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | – | 3% [nb 6] | 16% |
Survation | The Courier | 30 Apr – 4 May 2021 | 1,008 | 36% | 21% | 19% | 10% | 7% | 3% | – | – | – | – | 15% |
Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 30 Apr – 4 May 2021 | 1,001 | 34% | 23% | 19% | 9% | 6% | 2% | – | – | – | – | 11% |
Ipsos MORI | STV News | 30 Apr – 3 May 2021 | 1,502 | 39% | 23% | 18% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | – | 2% [nb 6] | 16% |
Opinium | Sky News | 28 Apr – 3 May 2021 | 1,015 | 41% | 23% | 17% | 8% | 6% | 3% | – | – | – | – | 18% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 28–30 Apr 2021 | 1,096 | 39% | 22% | 16% | 8% | 7% | 4% | – | – | – | 4% [nb 7] | 17% |
BMG | The Herald | 27–30 Apr 2021 | 1,023 | 37% | 22% | 17% | 9% | 8% | 4% | – | – | – | – [nb 7] | 15% |
Channel 4 News leaders' debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Harvie [3] | ||||||||||||||
Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 23–27 Apr 2021 | 1,001 | 36% | 22% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | – | – | – | 8% | 14% |
Survation | GMB | 23–26 Apr 2021 | 1,008 | 37% | 22% | 18% | 10% | 7% | 2% | – | 1% | – | 1% | 15% |
Panelbase | Scot Goes Pop | 21–26 Apr 2021 | 1,075 | 36% | 21% | 18% | 10% | 6% | 6% | – | – | – | – [nb 7] | 15% |
Survation | The Sunday Post | 20–22 Apr 2021 | 1,037 | 35% | 20% | 22% | 10% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% | – | 2% | 13% |
Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 16–20 Apr 2021 | 1,001 | 38% | 23% | 17% | 7% | 5% | 1% | – | – | – | 7% | 15% |
YouGov | The Times | 16–20 Apr 2021 | 1,204 | 39% | 22% | 17% | 10% | 5% | 2% | – | 1% | – | 2% | 17% |
STV leaders debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Harvie [18] | ||||||||||||||
Panelbase | Believe in Scotland | 9–12 Apr 2021 | 1,002 | 36% | 22% | 17% | 9% | 6% | 6% | – | – | – | 4% [nb 7] | 14% |
Lord Ashcroft | N/A | 7–19 Apr 2021 | 2,017 | 42% | 22% | 16% | 9% | 7% | 2% | – | 2% | – | – | 20% |
Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 2–7 Apr 2021 | 1,007 | 40% | 21% | 18% | 9% | 7% | 3% | – | – | – | 3% | 19% |
Opinium | Sky News | 1–6 Apr 2021 | 1,023 | 44% | 22% | 17% | 7% | 5% | 2% | – | – | – | 3% | 22% |
Ipsos MORI | STV News | 30 Mar – 4 Apr 2021 | 1,038 | 38% | 21% | 18% | 12% | 6% | 3% | – | – | – | 2% | 17% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 30 Mar – 1 Apr 2021 | 1,009 | 39% | 21% | 17% | 8% | 5% | 6% | – | – | – | 4% [nb 8] | 18% |
BBC Scotland leaders debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Slater [5] | ||||||||||||||
Survation | The Courier | 29–30 Mar 2021 | 1,000 | 38% | 18% | 19% | 11% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | – | 1% | 19% |
Former first minister Alex Salmond launches the Alba Party [6] | ||||||||||||||
Find Out Now | Daily Express | 23–26 Mar 2021 | 1,022 | 42% | 21% | 16% | 11% | 5% | – | – | 2% | – | 2% | 21% |
YouGov | The Times | 19–22 Mar 2021 | N/A | 46% | 24% | 15% | 8% | 5% | – | – | – | – | 3% | 22% |
BMG | The Herald | 16–19 Mar 2021 | 1,021 | 42% | 22% | 17% | 8% | 8% | – | – | 1% | – | 2% | 20% |
Survation | The Courier | 11–18 Mar 2021 | 1,515 | 39% | 19% | 20% | 11% | 7% | – | – | 1% | – | 2% | 19% |
Opinium | Sky News | 11–16 Mar 2021 | 1,096 | 42% | 22% | 19% | 7% | 5% | – | – | – | – | 4% | 20% |
Survation | Scotland in Union | 9–12 Mar 2021 | 1,011 | 39% | 21% | 20% | 10% | 8% | – | – | – | – | 2% | 18% |
Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 5–10 Mar 2021 | 1,009 | 40% | 24% | 18% | 10% | 6% | – | – | – | – | 2% | 16% |
YouGov | The Times | 4–8 Mar 2021 | 1,100 | 45% | 21% | 16% | 6% | 5% | – | – | – | 3% | 4% | 24% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 3–5 Mar 2021 | 1,013 | 42% | 22% | 19% | 6% | 7% | – | – | – | – | 4% | 20% |
Anas Sarwar is elected leader of Scottish Labour [7] | ||||||||||||||
Survation | Daily Record | 24–25 Feb 2021 | 1,011 | 38% | 21% | 20% | 11% | 7% | – | – | – | – | 3% | 17% |
Ipsos MORI | STV News | 15–21 Feb 2021 | 1,031 | 47% | 22% | 14% | 8% | 6% | – | – | – | – | 3% [nb 9] | 25% |
Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 4–9 Feb 2021 | 1,002 | 39% | 21% | 21% | 10% | 9% | – | – | – | – | 3% | 18% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 19–22 Jan 2021 | 1,059 | 46% | 20% | 16% | 8% | 6% | – | – | – | – | 3% | 26% |
Survation | Scot Goes Pop | 11–13 Jan 2021 | 1,020 | 40% | 17% | 19% | 11% | 9% | – | – | – | – | – | 19% |
Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 8–13 Jan 2021 | 1,016 | 40% | 18% | 20% | 10% | 9% | – | – | – | – | 3% | 20% |
The Brexit Party is re-registered as Reform UK [8] | ||||||||||||||
Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 11–15 Dec 2020 | 1,013 | 39% | 20% | 20% | 11% | 7% | – | – | – | – | 3% | 19% |
Survation | N/A | 4–9 Dec 2020 | 1,010 | 41% | 18% | 20% | 10% | 7% | – | – | 1% | – | – | 21% |
Ipsos MORI | STV News | 20–26 Nov 2020 | 1,006 | 47% | 22% | 16% | 7% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | 25% |
Panelbase | Scot Goes Pop | 5–11 Nov 2020 | 1,020 | 46% | 20% | 18% | 8% | 6% | – | – | – | – | 3% | 26% |
YouGov | N/A | 6–10 Nov 2020 | 1,089 | 47% | 20% | 13% | 7% | 6% | – | – | – | 3% | – | 27% |
Survation | N/A | 28 Oct – 3 Nov 2020 | 1,071 | 43% | 17% | 19% | 10% | 7% | – | 1% | 2% | – | 1% | 24% |
Ipsos MORI | STV News | 2–9 Oct 2020 | 1,045 | 48% | 18% | 14% | 9% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | 30% |
Savanta ComRes | N/A | 9 Oct 2020 | 1,003 | 41% | 21% | 18% | 11% | 7% | – | – | – | – | 1% | 20% |
JL Partners | Politico | 17–21 Sep 2020 | 1,016 | 53% | 19% | 13% | 5% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | 34% |
Survation | N/A | 2–7 Sep 2020 | 1,018 | 42% | 18% | 18% | 10% | 8% | – | 2% | 2% | – | <1% | 24% |
Savanta ComRes | N/A | 6–13 Aug 2020 | 1,008 | 43% | 21% | 17% | 10% | 8% | – | – | – | – | 2% | 22% |
YouGov | The Times | 6–10 Aug 2020 | 1,142 | 47% | 21% | 14% | 6% | 7% | – | – | 1% | 4% | 1% | 26% |
Douglas Ross becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives [9] | ||||||||||||||
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 30 Jun – 3 Jul 2020 | 1,026 | 50% | 18% | 15% | 8% | 6% | – | – | – | – | 2% | 32% |
Panelbase | Scot Goes Pop | 1–5 Jun 2020 | 1,022 | 48% | 19% | 16% | 7% | 8% | – | – | – | – | 2% | 29% |
Panelbase | Wings Over Scotland | 1–5 May 2020 | 1,086 | 48% | 22% | 15% | 7% | 6% | – | – | – | – | 1% | 26% |
YouGov | N/A | 24–27 Apr 2020 | 1,095 | 45% | 23% | 12% | 8% | 7% | – | – | – | 4% | 1% | 22% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 24–26 Mar 2020 | 1,023 | 48% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 6% | – | – | – | – | 1% | 22% |
Jackson Carlaw is elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives [10] | ||||||||||||||
Panelbase | Scot Goes Pop | 28–31 Jan 2020 | 1,016 | 47% | 25% | 14% | 7% | 7% | – | – | – | – | <1% | 22% |
Survation | Progress Scotland | 20–22 Jan 2020 | 1,019 | 38% | 21% | 19% | 9% | 9% | – | 1% | 2% | – | – | 17% |
2019 United Kingdom general election [11] | ||||||||||||||
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 3–6 Dec 2019 | 1,020 | 38% | 26% | 18% | 6% | 9% | – | – | 2% | – | – | 12% |
YouGov | The Times | 29 Nov – 3 Dec 2019 | 1,002 | 37% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 10% | – | – | 2% | 3% | <1% [nb 1] | 12% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 20–22 Nov 2019 | 1,009 | 39% | 25% | 17% | 6% | 9% | – | – | 3% | – | – | 14% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 9–11 Oct 2019 | 1,003 | 38% | 21% | 18% | 6% | 11% | – | <1% | 4% | – | <1% | 17% |
YouGov | The Times | 30 Aug – 3 Sep 2019 | 1,059 | 39% | 20% | 11% | 8% | 13% | – | 1% | 5% | 3% | <1% [nb 1] | 19% |
Shetland by-election [12] | ||||||||||||||
Lorna Slater is elected co-leader of the Scottish Greens alongside Patrick Harvie [13] | ||||||||||||||
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 18–20 Jun 2019 | 1,024 | 39% | 20% | 16% | 7% | 10% | – | <1% | 6% | – | <1% [nb 2] | 19% |
2019 European Parliament election [14] | ||||||||||||||
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 14–17 May 2019 | 1,021 | 37% | 19% | 18% | 7% | 8% | – | 2% | 6% | – | 2% [nb 4] | 18% |
YouGov | The Times | 24–26 Apr 2019 | 1,029 | 37% | 20% | 15% | 10% | 7% | – | 2% | 5% | 3% | 2% [nb 4] | 17% |
Panelbase | N/A | 18–24 Apr 2019 | 1,018 | 37% | 22% | 19% | 7% | 7% | – | 2% | 4% | – | 2% [nb 4] | 15% |
Panelbase | Wings Over Scotland | 28 Feb – 6 Mar 2019 | 1,002 | 36% | 26% | 19% | 6% | 9% | – | 3% | – | – | <1% | 10% |
Survation | Scottish Daily Mail | 1–4 Mar 2019 | 1,011 | 32% | 22% | 19% | 11% | 11% | – | 3% | – | – | 1% | 10% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 30 Nov – 5 Dec 2018 | 1,028 | 38% | 26% | 22% | 6% | 7% | – | 1% | – | – | <1% | 12% |
Panelbase | Constitutional Commission | 2–7 Nov 2018 | 1,050 | 37% | 26% | 22% | 6% | 6% | – | 2% | – | – | <1% | 11% |
Survation | Daily Record | 18–21 Oct 2018 | 1,017 | 32% | 23% | 23% | 9% | 9% | – | – | – | – | 4% | 9% |
Survation | SNP | 3–5 Oct 2018 | 1,013 | 40% | 25% | 22% | 4% | 8% | – | – | – | – | 2% | 15% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 28 Sep – 4 Oct 2018 | 1,024 | 35% | 26% | 20% | 7% | 8% | – | 2% | – | – | 1% | 9% |
Survation | The Sunday Post | 28 Sep – 2 Oct 2018 | 1,036 | 32% | 21% | 23% | 10% | 8% | – | 5% | – | – | 0% | 9% |
Survation | Daily Record | 5–10 Jul 2018 | 1,004 | 33% | 19% | 21% | 11% | 10% | – | 5% | – | – | 1% | 12% |
Panelbase | Wings Over Scotland | 21–27 Jun 2018 | 1,018 | 36% | 27% | 23% | 6% | 7% | – | 1% | – | – | <1% | 9% |
Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 8–13 Jun 2018 | 1,021 | 36% | 26% | 23% | 7% | 6% | – | 1% | – | – | <1% | 10% |
YouGov | The Times | 1–5 Jun 2018 | 1,075 | 32% | 26% | 21% | 9% | 7% | – | 1% | – | 3% | <1% | 6% |
Survation | Daily Record | 24–28 Jan 2018 | 1,029 | 33% | 23% | 23% | 9% | 8% | – | 3% | – | – | 1% | 10% |
YouGov | The Times | 12–16 Jan 2018 | 1,002 | 32% | 25% | 22% | 10% | 7% | – | 3% | – | 2% | <1% | 7% |
Survation | The Sunday Post | 1–5 Dec 2017 | 1,006 | 32% | 21% | 24% | 10% | 10% | – | 3% | – | – | 1% | 8% |
Survation | Daily Record | 27–30 Nov 2017 | 1,017 | 33% | 22% | 25% | 8% | 8% | – | 3% | – | – | <1% | 8% |
Richard Leonard is elected leader of Scottish Labour [15] | ||||||||||||||
YouGov | The Times | 2–5 Oct 2017 | 1,135 | 35% | 23% | 24% | 6% | 6% | – | 1% | – | 3% | <1% | 11% |
Survation | Scottish Daily Mail | 8–12 Sep 2017 | 1,016 | 31% | 21% | 25% | 9% | 10% | – | 3% | – | – | <1% | 6% |
2017 United Kingdom general election [16] | ||||||||||||||
2017 Scottish local elections [17] | ||||||||||||||
YouGov | The Times | 9–14 Mar 2017 | 1,028 | 40% | 25% | 14% | 12% | 5% | – | 2% | – | 1% [lower-alpha 1] | 1% | 15% |
YouGov | The Times | 24–29 Nov 2016 | 1,134 | 39% | 24% | 14% | 11% | 6% | – | 4% | – | 1% [lower-alpha 1] | 0% | 15% |
BMG | N/A | 28 Sep – 4 Oct 2016 | 1,010 | 43% | 20% | 16% | 8% | 7% | – | 3% | – | – | 1% | 23% |
YouGov | The Times | 29–31 Aug 2016 | 1,039 | 45% | 21% | 15% | 9% | 6% | – | 2% | – | – | 0% | 24% |
Survation | Scottish Daily Mail | 24–28 Jun 2016 | 1,055 | 41% | 20% | 16% | 12% | 7% | – | 4% | – | – | 1% | 21% |
2016 Scottish Parliament election | 5 May 2016 | – | 41.7% | 22.9% | 19.1% | 6.6% | 5.2% | – | 2.0% | – | 0.5% [lower-alpha 2] | 2.4% | 18.8% | |
Each polling organisation are members of the British Polling Council and uses slightly different methodology in their collection of data. All organisations remove voters who do not give a voting intention from their headline figures; this is usually ranges from 10% to 15% of respondents likely to vote. A brief description of each company's methods is as follows:
The Scottish National Party is a Scottish nationalist and social democratic political party in Scotland. The SNP supports and campaigns for Scottish independence or secession from the United Kingdom and for Scotland's membership of the European Union, with a platform based on civic nationalism. The SNP is currently the largest political party in Scotland, where it has the most seats in the Scottish Parliament and 44 out of the 59 Scottish seats in the House of Commons in Westminster. The current Scottish National Party leader is Humza Yousaf, who replaced Nicola Sturgeon after a leadership election on 27 March 2023.
Scottish independence is the notion of Scotland as a sovereign state, independent from the United Kingdom, and refers to the political movement that is campaigning to bring it about.
Unionism in Scotland is a political movement which favours the continuation of the political union between Scotland and the other countries of the United Kingdom, and hence is opposed to Scottish independence. Scotland is one of four countries of the United Kingdom which has its own devolved government and Scottish Parliament, as well as representation in the UK Parliament. There are many strands of political Unionism in Scotland, some of which have ties to Unionism and Loyalism in Northern Ireland. The two main political parties in the UK — the Conservatives support Scotland remaining part of the UK.
Scottish Labour is a political party in Scotland. From their peak of holding 56 of the 129 seats at the first Scottish parliament election in 1999, the Party has lost seats at each Holyrood election, returning 22 MSPs at the 2021 election. The party currently holds one of 59 Scottish seats in the UK House of Commons, with Ian Murray having represented Edinburgh South continuously since 2010.
The 2011 Scottish Parliament election was held on Thursday, 5 May 2011 to elect 129 members to the Scottish Parliament.
This is a list of opinion polls for the 2007 Scottish Parliament election. The first figure for each party is for the 1st, first-past-the-post, constituency, vote; the second figure is for the 2nd, proportional representation, regional, vote. The Scottish Greens and the Scottish Socialist Party ran only one constituency candidate each in the 2007 election so constituency values in polls for those parties have little meaning.
Full fiscal autonomy (FFA) – also known as devolution max, devo-max, or fiscal federalism – is a particular form of far-reaching devolution proposed for Scotland and for Wales. The term has come to describe a constitutional arrangement in which instead of receiving a block grant from the UK Exchequer as at present, the Scottish Parliament or the Senedd would receive all taxation levied in Scotland or Wales; it would be responsible for most spending in Scotland or Wales but make payments to the UK government to cover Scotland or Wales's share of the cost of providing certain UK-wide services, largely defence and foreign relations. Scottish/Welsh fiscal autonomy – stopping short of full political independence – is usually promoted by advocates of a federal United Kingdom.
In the run up to the general election on 7 May 2015, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.
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In the run up to the general election of 2001, several polling organisations carried out opinion polling in regards to voting intention in Great Britain. Results of such polls are displayed below.
This page lists the public opinion polls that were conducted in relation to the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, that was held on 18 September 2014. Overall, polls showed that support for a "No" vote was dominant until the end of August 2014, when support for a "Yes" vote gained momentum and the gap closed significantly, with at least one poll placing the "Yes" vote ahead. In the final week of the campaign, polls showed the "No" vote to be consistently but somewhat narrowly ahead. There were no exit polls although a YouGov post-election poll was published shortly after the polls closed. For the history of the campaign itself see 2014 Scottish independence referendum, Yes Scotland, and Better Together (campaign).
The 2015 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday 7 May 2015 to elect 650 Members of Parliament to the House of Commons. It was the only general election held under the rules of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011. Local elections took place in most areas on the same day.
In the run-up to the general election on 8 June 2017, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.
The 2019 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday, 12 December 2019. The eighteenth and final general election to be held during the reign of Elizabeth II, who later died in 2022, it resulted in the incumbent Conservative Party receiving a landslide victory and majority of 80 seats. The Conservatives made a net gain of 48 seats and won 43.6% of the popular vote, which was the highest percentage for any party since the 1979 United Kingdom general election.
The 2019 European Parliament election was the United Kingdom's component of the 2019 European Parliament election, held on Thursday 23 May 2019 and the results were announced on Sunday 26 and Monday 27 May 2019, after all the other EU countries had voted. This was the United Kingdom's final participation in a European Parliament election before leaving the European Union on 31 January 2020, and was also the last election to be held under the provisions of the European Parliamentary Elections Act 2002 before its repeal under the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018.
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Opinion polling on Scottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations to gauge public attitudes to independence. The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2014 Scottish independence referendum to the present day. Polling conducted before the 2014 Scottish independence referendum can be found here.
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Scotland in Union (SIU) is a pro-UK campaign group, based in Scotland, which launched in March 2015 to help keep Scotland within the United Kingdom. Its supporters include members of pro-UK political parties and people with no party affiliation. It is Scotland's largest and most active pro-UK campaign group, with 36,000 signed up supporters.
Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election is continually being carried out by various organisations to gauge voting intention. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2019 general election on 12 December to the present day.
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