Opinion polling for the 2019 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom

Last updated

Various opinion polls were conducted in advance of the 2019 European Parliament election. Before the April delay, a number of polls asked respondents to imagine how they would vote in a then-hypothetical scenario in which European elections would be held.

Contents

Great Britain

Graphical summary

The chart below depicts opinion polls conducted for the 2019 European Parliament elections in the UK; trendlines are local regressions (LOESS).

Opinion polling for the 2019 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom (LOESS).svg

National opinion polling

Pollster/client(s)Date(s)
conducted		AreaSample
size		 UKIP Lab Con Green Lib Dem SNP Plaid Cymru Change UK Brexit Party OtherLead
2019 European Parliament election 23 May 2019GB–3.3%14.1%9.1%12.1% [lower-alpha 1] 20.3%3.6%1.0%3.4%31.6%1.6%11.3%
UK3.2%13.6%8.8%11.8% [lower-alpha 2] 19.6%3.5%1.0%3.3%30.5%4.7%11.0%
Survation/Daily Mail 22 May 2019UK2,0293%23%14%7%12%3%–4%31%4%8%
BMG/The Independent 20–22 May 2019GB1,6012%18%12%8%17%3%1%4%35%1%17%
Ipsos MORI/The Evening Standard 20–22 May 2019GB1,5273%15%9%10%20%3%0%3%35%3%15%
YouGov/The Times 19–21 May 2019GB3,8643%13%7%12%19%3%1%4%37%2%18%
Number Cruncher Politics 18–21 May 2019GB1,0052%19%15%7%16%4%1%4%33%1%14%
Kantar 14–21 May 2019GB2,3164%24%13%8%15%3%0%5%27%1%3%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 14–21 May 2019GB2,0333%25%12%7%15%4%–3%30%1%5%
Opinium 17–20 May 2019UK2,0052%17%12%7%15%3%1%3%38%2%21%
Survation/Daily Mail 17 May 2019UK1,0003%24%14%4%12%4%1%3%30%4% [lower-alpha 3] 6%
ComRes/Electoral Calculus/Centrum Campaign 13–17 May 2019GB4,1613%22%12%7%14%3%1%5%32%1%10%
YouGov/Best for Britain/Hope Not Hate 8–17 May 2019GB9,2603%15%9%11%17%3%1%4%34%3%17%
ComRes/Sunday Mirror/Sunday Express 15–16 May 2019GB2,0412%23%9%9%16%4%1%4%31%1%8%
Opinium/The Observer 14–16 May 2019UK2,0092%20%12%6%15%4%1%3%34%3%14%
YouGov/The Times 12–16 May 2019GB7,1923%15%9%10%16%3%1%5%35%3%19%
Hanbury Strategy/Politico 9–13 May 2019GB2,0003%25%13%6%14%4%–6%30%0%5%
ComRes/The Daily Telegraph 10–12 May 2019GB2,0283%25%15%7%13%3%0%6%27%1%2%
Opinium/The Observer 8–10 May 2019UK2,0044%21%11%8%12%4%1%3%34%2%13%
BMG/The Independent 7–10 May 2019GB1,5413%22%12%10%19%2%0%4%26%1%4%
ComRes/Brexit Express 9 May 2019GB2,0343%25%13%8%14%3%0%6%27%1%2%
Survation/Good Morning Britain 8–9 May 2019UK1,3034%24%12%7% [lower-alpha 4] 11%4%1%4%30%3% [lower-alpha 5] 6%
YouGov/The Times 8–9 May 2019GB2,2123%16%10%11%15%3%1%5%34%3%18%
Opinium/People's Vote 3–7 May 2019UK2,0004%26%14%6%12%5%2%2%29%1%3%
ComRes/Electoral Calculus/Centrum Campaign 1–6 May 2019GB4,0602%26%14%6%11%3%1%8%28%1%2%
2 May 2019 Local elections in England and Northern Ireland [1] [2]
YouGov/The Times 29–30 Apr 2019GB1,6304%21%13%9%10%4%9%30%1%9%
YouGov/Hope Not Hate 23–26 Apr 2019GB5,4125%22%13%10%7%5%10%28%1%6%
Survation 17–25 Apr 2019UK1,9997%27%16%4%8%3%1%4%27%3% [lower-alpha 3] Tie
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 18–24 Apr 2019GB2,0305%33%20%4%7%4%–5%20%1%13%
Opinium/The Observer 21–23 Apr 2019UK2,0043%28%14%6%7%5%1%7%28%1%Tie
YouGov/The Times 16–17 Apr 2019GB1,7556%22%17%10%9%5%8%23%1%1%
ComRes/Brexit Express 16 Apr 2019GB1,0615%33%18%5%9%4%0%9%17%1%15%
YouGov/People's Vote 15–16 Apr 2019GB1,8557%22%15%10%9%4%6%27%1%5%
Opinium/The Observer 9–12 Apr 2019UK2,00713%29%17%6%10%6%1%4%12%2%12%
YouGov/The Times 10–11 Apr 2019GB1,84314%24%16%8%8%6%7%15%1%8%
Hanbury Strategy/Open Europe 5–8 Apr 2019GB2,0008%38%23%4%8%4%0%4%10%1%15%
Opinium/The Observer 28–29 Mar 2019UK2,00818%30%24%8%10%4%1%––5%6%
22 Mar 2019 Nigel Farage becomes leader of the Brexit Party [3]
Opinium/The Observer 12–15 Mar 2019UK2,00817%29%28%6%11%4%1%––5%1%
Number Cruncher Politics/Politico 10–17 Jan 2019UK1,00310%37%36%5%8%3%1%––1%1%
2014 European Parliament election 22 May 2014GB–27.5%25.4%23.9%7.9% [lower-alpha 1] 6.9%2.5%0.7%––5.3%2.1%
UK26.6%24.4%23.0%7.6% [lower-alpha 2] 6.6%2.4%0.7%––8.6%2.2%

MRP and RPP estimates

ComRes, like YouGov in the 2017 general election, employed multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) as well as regularised prediction and poststratification (RPP) to model voting behavior in every region in Great Britain using large numbers of survey interviews on voting intentions (an approach described as identifying "patterns in responses across [regions] that have similar characteristics, and then work[ing] out the implications of those patterns for each"). [4]

Pollster/client(s)Date(s)
conducted		AreaSample
size		 UKIP Lab Con Green Lib Dem SNP Plaid Cymru Change UK Brexit Party OtherLead
2019 European Parliament election 23 May 2019GB–3.3%14.1%9.1%12.1% [lower-alpha 1] 20.3%3.6%1.0%3.4%31.6%1.6%11.3%
UK3.2%13.6%8.8%11.8% [lower-alpha 2] 19.6%3.5%1.0%3.3%30.5%4.7%11.0%
ComRes/Electoral Calculus/Centrum Campaign (RPP) 13–17 May 2019GB3,5722%24%11%6%15%4%4%32%0%8%
ComRes/Electoral Calculus/Centrum Campaign (MRP) 1–6 May 2019GB3,5833%27%14%6%11%4%8%26%0%1%
2014 European Parliament election 22 May 2014GB–27.5%25.4%23.9%7.9% [lower-alpha 1] 6.9%2.5%0.7%––5.3%2.1%
UK26.6%24.4%23.0%7.6% [lower-alpha 2] 6.6%2.4%0.7%––8.6%2.2%

London only

Pollster/client(s)Date(s)
conducted		Sample
size		 Lab Con UKIP Green Lib Dem Change UK Brexit Party OtherLead
2019 European Parliament election 23 May 2019–23.9%7.9%2.1%12.4%27.2%5.2%17.9%3.3%3.2%
YouGov/Queen Mary University of London 7–10 May 20191,01524%10%1%14%17%7%20%5%4%
2014 European Parliament election 22 May 2014–36.7%22.5%16.9%8.9%6.7%––8.3%14.1%

Scotland only

Pollster/client(s)Date(s)
conducted		Sample
size		 SNP Lab Con UKIP Green Lib Dem Change UK Brexit Party OtherLead
2019 European Parliament election 23 May 2019–37.8%9.3%11.6%1.8%8.2%13.9%1.9%14.8%0.5%23.0%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 14–17 May 20191,02138%16%11%2%4%10%2%16%<1%22%
YouGov/The Times 24–26 Apr 20191,02940%14%10%3%7%6%6%13%0%26%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 18–24 Apr 20191,01839%20%16%2%3%6%4%10%<1%19%
2014 European Parliament election 22 May 2014–29.0%25.9%17.2%10.5%8.1%7.1%––2.3%3.1%

Wales only

Pollster/client(s)Date(s)
conducted		Sample
size		 Lab UKIP Con Plaid Cymru Green Lib Dem Change UK Brexit Party OtherLead
2019 European Parliament election 23 May 2019–15.3%3.3%6.5%19.6%6.3%13.6%2.9%32.5%–12.9%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 16–20 May 20191,00915%2%7%19%8%10%2%36%1%17%
YouGov/Plaid Cymru 10–15 May 20191,11318%3%7%16%8%10%4%33%0%15%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 2–5 Apr 20191,02530%11%16%15%5%6%8%10%1%14%
2014 European Parliament election 22 May 2014–28.1%27.6%17.4%15.3%4.5%3.9%––3.1%0.6%

Northern Ireland

The following polls reflect first preferences only.

Pollster/client(s)Date(s)
conducted		Sample
size		 Sinn Féin DUP UUP SDLP TUV Alliance UKIP Green OtherLead
2019 European Parliament election 23 May 2019–22.2%21.8%9.3%13.7%10.8%18.5%0.9%2.2%0.6%0.3%
LucidTalk/The Times/U105 [5] 18–19 May 20191,48226.3%21.8%11.8%13.3%9.3%11.6%1.7%3.3%0.9% [lower-alpha 6] 4.5%
LucidTalk/The Times/U105 [5] 4–7 May 20191,40527.2%20.2%11.8%13.1%8.5%11.3%1.7%4.6%1.6% [lower-alpha 7] 7.0%
2014 European Parliament election 22 May 2014–25.5%20.9%13.3%13.0%12.1%7.1%3.9%1.7%2.3%4.6%

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 Including the Scottish Green Party
  2. 1 2 3 4 Including the Scottish Green Party and the Green Party in Northern Ireland
  3. 1 2 Including the DUP with 2% and English Democrats with 1%
  4. ↑ Including the Scottish Green Party with 1%
  5. ↑ Including the DUP with 2%
  6. ↑ Includes independent Jane Morrice with 0.7%
  7. ↑ Includes independent Jane Morrice with 1.4%

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References

  1. ↑ "England local elections 2019". BBC News. Retrieved 21 May 2019.
  2. ↑ "Northern Ireland local elections 2019". BBC News. Retrieved 21 May 2019.
  3. ↑ "Nigel Farage back in frontline politics as Brexit Party leader". BBC News. 22 March 2019. Retrieved 22 May 2019.
  4. ↑ "YouGov UK General Election MRP Estimates - February 2019" (PDF). YouGov. 11 February 2019. Retrieved 22 May 2019.
  5. 1 2 "NI TRACKER POLL – NI EUROPEAN ELECTION (23RD May 2019) POLL QUESTIONS RESULTS – GENERAL REPORT" (PDF). LucidTalk. 30 May 2019. Retrieved 2 June 2019.
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