The 2025 Caerphilly by-election is due to be held on 23 October 2025[1][2] to elect the new member of the Senedd (MS) for the Senedd constituency of Caerphilly following the death of Hefin David on 12 August 2025. The election will be the fifth Senedd by-election to be held since its formation as the National Assembly for Wales in 1999 and the first since it changed its name to the Senedd in 2020. It is also expected to be the last Welsh Senedd by-election in its foreseeable future, due to imminent changes to the Senedd's electoral system in 2026 which will introduce a closed list system of proportional representation where vacant constituency seats will be filled using the party list.
Hefin David had been the Welsh Labourmember of the Senedd (MS) for the Senedd constituency of Caerphilly since the 2016 National Assembly for Wales election.[3] He served as a backbench MS for the duration of his career on the legislature before his sudden death on 12 August 2025.[3][4] His death left the constituency's seat vacant and therefore triggered a by-election under the Government of Wales Act 2006 and Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Act 2024, which will be held to elect his successor as MS for Caerphilly.[5] By-elections must be held within three months of a vacancy, so this by-election had to be held no later than 11 November 2025.[2][6] On 3 September, the date of election was announced as 23 October 2025.[1] It is expected that this will be the last by-election held before the Senedd's electoral system changes to a closed list system of proportional representation in 2026, and therefore the last by-election to the Senedd for the foreseeable future, as constituency vacancies under this system will be filled using the party list rather than through a public by-election.[5][2]
The by-election was triggered on a background of favourable opinion polling for Reform UK, who are therefore considered a potential favourite heading into the by-election. A Reform victory may also give it momentum heading into the next Senedd election, which is due to be held in May 2026. The other main contenders include Welsh Labour, who have held the seat since devolution began in 1999, and Plaid Cymru, who have led Caerphilly County Borough Council twice in the same period.[5] David's death has left the incumbent Welsh Labour government of Eluned Morgan with a minority of 29 of 59 seats in the Senedd, alongside this singular vacancy, and a victory for Reform or Plaid may make it more difficult for Morgan's government to negotiate the next Welsh budget for 2026 to 2027.[5] Labour MP Nia Griffith said the election would be "very challenging" for her party, believing Reform to be Labour's main challenger because of their populist message.[1]
Candidates
Most political parties suspended their campaigning in Caerphilly in the immediate aftermath of David's death out of respect, however Reform UK continued to campaign in the constituency, including on the day of his funeral when it distributed a leaflet and a letter from party leader Nigel Farage criticising other parties and asking for support, which led to accusations that Reform was being insensitive and disrespectful.[7] Other parties resumed campaigning after the date of the by-election was announced on 3 September.[8]
Plaid Cymru was the first party to announce its candidate, naming former South Wales East AM Lindsay Whittle as their candidate on 3 September.[9][10] Welsh Labour was the next party to begin its selections process.[1]Wayne David, former Labour MP for Caerphilly, was reportedly approached by Welsh Labour to stand, but he ruled himself out as a candidate on 3 September.[11] On 6 September, the party announced Richard Tunnicliffe, Hefin David's former campaign manager, as its candidate, who was selected at a meeting of local party members.[12][13] Tunnicliffe runs a children's publishing company.[14] The third party to select a candidate was the Welsh Conservatives, who announced former charity worker Gareth Potter as its candidate on 11 September.[15] It was reported that Reform UK may stand former Reform UK Wales leader Mark Reckless as its candidate, but they instead went with Llŷr Powell who lives in Caerphilly.[12]
Other parties standing in the by-election include Gwlad, which announced local army veteran Anthony Cook as its candidate, and the Welsh Liberal Democrats, who are still selected their candidate as of 17 September 2025.[16]
Campaign
In early September, Reform UK set up a campaign office in Caerphilly town centre.[11] In a letter addressed to local residents by UK party leader Nigel Farage, the party accused Welsh Labour of "failing" on the NHS, employment and immigration, and also asked for voters to pledge their support and send donations to the campaign.[7][17] Farage's deputy Richard Tice said the party would focus on cutting wasteful spending in the Senedd, for example by ending 20mph speed limits and reforming the structure of NHS Wales, and cutting immigration to Wales, but did not specify the exact reforms it would make to the NHS.[18] According to party sources, Reform hopes to take the Conservative vote and attract part of the Labour vote, on the model of its predecessor the UK Independence Party in the 2016 National Assembly for Wales election, in order to win the by-election.[19]
On 11 September the Welsh Conservatives launched their campaign with their candidate as Gareth Potter.[24] Potter has experience in the retail and charity sectors.[25]
On 12 September, Reform launched their campaign with their candidate Llŷr Powell.[26] Powell, a communications specialist and Welsh speaker, said that Hefin David had been an "excellent Senedd member who was never tribal, committed to his community and made a real difference in education."[27]
On 16 September, the party Gwlad, which supports Welsh independence, announced Anthony Cook as their candidate.[28]
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