The 2025 Caerphilly by-election is due to be held on 23 October 2025[1][2] to elect the new member of the Senedd (MS) for the Senedd constituency of Caerphilly following the death of Hefin David on 12 August 2025. The election will be the fifth Senedd by-election to be held since its formation as the National Assembly for Wales in 1999 and the first since it changed its name to the Senedd in 2020. It is also expected to be the last Welsh Senedd by-election in its foreseeable future, due to imminent changes to the Senedd's electoral system in 2026 which will introduce a closed list system of proportional representation where vacant constituency seats will be filled using the party list.
Hefin David had been the Welsh Labourmember of the Senedd (MS) for the Senedd constituency of Caerphilly since the 2016 National Assembly for Wales election.[3] He served as a backbench MS for the duration of his career on the legislature before his sudden death on 12 August 2025.[3][4] His death left the constituency's seat vacant and therefore triggered a by-election under the Government of Wales Act 2006 and Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Act 2024, which will be held to elect his successor as MS for Caerphilly.[5] By-elections must be held within three months of a vacancy, so this by-election had to be held no later than 11 November 2025.[2][6] On 3 September, the date of election was announced as 23 October 2025.[1] It is expected that this will be the last by-election held before the Senedd's electoral system changes to a closed list system of proportional representation in 2026, and therefore the last by-election to the Senedd for the foreseeable future, as constituency vacancies under this system will be filled using the party list rather than through a by-election.[5][2]
David's death has left the incumbent Welsh Labour government of Eluned Morgan with a minority of 29 of 59 seats in the Senedd, alongside this singular vacancy, and a Labour loss may make it more difficult for Morgan's government to negotiate the next Welsh budget for 2026 to 2027.[5]
Voting
In order to vote in the by-election voters must be aged 16 or over and have been registered to vote before 7 October 2025.[7] Those who wanted to apply for a postal vote must have done so before 8 October 2025.[7]
Polling stations will be open from 7am to 10pm on 23 October 2025.[7]
Welsh Labour was the next party to begin its selections process.[1]Wayne David, former Labour MP for Caerphilly, was reportedly approached by Welsh Labour to stand, but he ruled himself out as a candidate on 3 September.[13] On 6 September, the party announced Richard Tunnicliffe, Hefin David's former campaign manager, as its candidate, who was selected at a meeting of local party members.[17] Tunnicliffe runs a children's publishing company.[18]
On 11 September the Welsh Conservatives launched their campaign with their candidate as Gareth Potter.[19] Potter has experience in the retail and charity sectors.[20][21]
It was initially reported that Reform UK may stand former Reform UK Wales leader Mark Reckless as its candidate, but they instead selected Llŷr Powell, launching their campaign on 12 September.[15][22] Powell, a communications specialist and Welsh speaker, lives in Caerphilly and said that Hefin David had been an "excellent Senedd member who was never tribal, committed to his community and made a real difference in education."[23] Powell previously worked for ex-MEP Nathan Gill, the former leader of Reform UK in Wales who left the party in 2021. Gill later pleaded guilty on 26 September 2025 to taking bribes to make statements in favour of Russia between 2018 and 2019. Powell worked for Gill until December 2017, prior to when the offences took place.[24] Powell subsequently described Gill's actions as 'abhorrent' and a 'betrayal' to voters.[25]
On 16 September, the party Gwlad, which supports Welsh independence, announced local army veteran Anthony Cook as their candidate.[26][27]
UKIP fielded Roger Anthony Quilliam as their candidate. He is 22 years old and is on the National Executive Committee of the party, serving until October 2025. He is the only candidate that doesn't reside in Wales. [32]
Campaign
Most political parties suspended their campaigning in Caerphilly in the immediate aftermath of David's death out of respect, however Reform UK continued to campaign in the constituency, including on the day of his funeral when it distributed a leaflet and a letter from party leader Nigel Farage criticising other parties and asking for support, which led to accusations that Reform was being insensitive and disrespectful.[33] Other parties resumed campaigning after the date of the by-election was announced on 3 September.[34]
In early September, Reform UK set up a campaign office in Caerphilly town centre.[13] In a letter addressed to local residents by UK party leader Nigel Farage, the party accused Welsh Labour of "failing" on the NHS, employment and immigration, and also asked for voters to pledge their support and send donations to the campaign.[33][35] Farage's deputy Richard Tice said the party would focus on cutting wasteful spending in the Senedd, for example by ending 20mph speed limits and reforming the structure of NHS Wales, and cutting immigration to Wales, but did not specify the exact reforms it would make to the NHS.[36] According to party sources, Reform hopes to take the Conservative vote and attract part of the Labour vote, on the model of its predecessor the UK Independence Party in the 2016 National Assembly for Wales election, in order to win the by-election.[37] Polling has suggested a tight battle between Reform UK and Plaid Cymru.[38]
On 25 September 2025, Keir Starmer told BBC Wales that he does not know whether he will campaign in the by-election.[40] The by-election is reportedly important for his leadership.[41]
In late September, Nathan Gill, former Reform UK Wales leader who stopped being active in the party in 2021, pled guilty to counts of bribery from a pro-Russian politician in 2018 and 2019.[42] During the by-election campaign, Welsh Labour and the First Minister called on Reform's candidate, Llŷr Powell, to explain what he knew about the affair as he used to work as an adviser to Gill, though Reform argued that this was before Gill had committed any criminal acts.[42][43][44] In an interview with ITV Wales, Powell reiterated that he had stopped working for Gill in 2017 before the offenses took place, and claimed that Gill had hidden his activities from the party.[45] Powell furthermore described Gill's actions as a 'complete and utter betrayal' and 'an abhorrent thing to do' while also saying Labour was engaging in a 'desperate smear campaign' against Reform on social media.[46][47] On 3 October 2025, Welsh Labour retracted social media adverts implying Powell had links to Vladimir Putin after receiving a legal complaint from Reform.[48][49]
The Times predicts the Caerphilly by-election to be a close race between Reform UK's Llŷr Powell and Plaid Cymru's Lindsay Whittle, forecasting a Labour loss.[50] Labour MP Nia Griffith said the election would be "very challenging" for her party, believing Reform to be Labour's main challenger.[1]
Ballot list
The result will be announced the day after the by-election, on 24 October 2025.[37]
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