2006 Blaenau Gwent by-elections

Two by-elections were held for the constituency of Blaenau Gwent in Wales following the death of Member of Parliament and Assembly Member Peter Law on 25 April 2006. As Law was the MP and Assembly Member (AM), his death required by-elections in both the parliamentary seat and the equivalent Welsh Assembly constituency. The two elections polled on the same day, 29 June, as a by-election in Bromley and Chislehurst. A win by the Labour Party in the AM by-election would have restored their majority in the Welsh Assembly, which was lost when Law was expelled from the party. ^[1]

Law's successors won both seats: the independent Dai Davies, Law's former election agent, won the Westminster seat with a majority of about two and a half thousand. He was the first independent to hold a seat previously occupied by an independent since Sir Charles Vere Ferrers Townshend held The Wrekin in 1920. Meanwhile, Law's widow, Trish Law, was elected to her husband's former seat in the Welsh Assembly.

Westminster by-election

2006 Blaenau Gwent by-election

←  2005 29 June 2006 2010  →
The Blaenau Gwent seat in the UK House of Commons. Triggered by death of incumbent
Turnout	50.5% (15.6%)
First party Second party   Candidate Dai Davies Owen Smith Party Blaenau Gwent PV Labour Popular vote 12,543 10,055 Percentage 46.7 37.0 Swing 11.5%* 4.7%   Third party Fourth party   LD Candidate Steffan Lewis Amy Kitcher Party Plaid Cymru Liberal Democrats Popular vote 1,755 1,477 Percentage 6.5 5.4 Swing 4.1% 1.1%
MP before election Peter Law Independent Subsequent MP Dai Davies Independent

The writ for the UK Parliament by-election was moved on 6 June so that it would be held on the same date as the Assembly by-election, (29 June 2006). ^[2] Labour whips had reportedly pressed for the election to be held on 25 May. The movement of the writ was more complicated because Law sat as an Independent, and therefore the convention that the party of the former member moves the writ cannot apply. ^[3] According to the precedent (when Dennis Canavan resigned his Parliamentary seat at Westminster as an Independent), the whip of the governing party moves the writ.

Candidates

Maggie Jones, the Labour candidate who had been defeated by Law at the 2005 general election, was not able to stand, because she had been elevated to the House of Lords. ^[4] There had been speculation about an independent candidate running with the backing of the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru, but all three parties decided to contest the election. ^[1]

It had been reported that prior to Law's death that the Labour Party had decided against selecting their candidate for the next general election with an all-women shortlist. ^[5] It was the use of such a shortlist for the 2005 general election that led to Law standing as an independent. Labour instead left the selection to the local party. ^[6] The Labour candidate, Owen Smith, was chosen on 8 May. ^{[7] [8]} He was a former special adviser and BBC producer who worked for a pharmaceutical company. ^[9] After losing this by-election, Smith went on to become MP for Pontypridd at the 2010 general election, and in 2016 launched an unsuccessful campaign to lead the Labour party, remaining in Parliament until the 2019 general election.

The Liberal Democrat candidate was Amy Kitcher. The Conservatives stood Margrit Williams, who worked for Sir Malcolm Rifkind. ^[9] Dai Davies, Peter Law's former agent, stood as an independent with the support of the Blaenau Gwent People's Voice Group. ^[10]

Despite contesting both the previous Assembly and Parliamentary elections, the United Kingdom Independence Party decided not to stand a candidate, instead calling for a vote for the Blaenau Gwent People's Voice Group - even though the Group does not support withdrawal from the European Union, nor the abolition of the Welsh Assembly, key UKIP policies. ^[11]

The Conservative fifth place was their worst position in a UK mainland by-election since at least 1945.

Result

Blaenau Gwent by-election, 2006 ^[12]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Blaenau Gwent PV	Dai Davies	12,543	46.7	-11.5
	Labour	Owen Smith	10,055	37.0	+4.7
	Plaid Cymru	Steffan Lewis	1,755	6.5	+4.1
	Liberal Democrats	Amy Kitcher	1,477	5.4	+1.1
	Conservative	Margrit Williams	1,013	3.7	+1.3
	Monster Raving Loony	Alan "Howling Laud" Hope	318	1.2	N/A
Majority			2,488	9.7	-16.2
Turnout			27,161	50.5	-15.6
Registered electors			52,512
	Blaenau Gwent PV hold		Swing	−8.4

Previous result

The 2005 general election result, in the election for the Parliamentary seat, was a gain for Peter Law as an independent candidate.

General election 2005: Blaenau Gwent ^[13]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Independent	Peter Law	20,505	58.2	+58.2
	Labour	Maggie Jones	11,384	32.3	-39.7
	Liberal Democrats	Brian Thomas	1,511	4.3	-5.0
	Plaid Cymru	John Price	843	2.4	-8.8
	Conservative	Phillip Lee	816	2.4	-5.2
	UKIP	Peter Osborne	192	0.5	+0.5
Majority			9,121	25.9	N/A
Turnout			35,251	66.1	+6.6
Registered electors			53,301
	Independent gain from Labour		Swing	+48.9

Welsh Assembly by-election

2006 Blaenau Gwent by-election

←  2003 29 June 2006 2007  →
The Blaenau Gwent seat in the National Assembly for Wales. Triggered by death of incumbent
Turnout	49.6% (12.2%)
First party Second party Third party   Lab LD Candidate Trish Law John Hopkins Steve Bard Party Independent Labour Liberal Democrats Popular vote 13,785 9,321 2,054 Percentage 50.3 34.0 6.5 Swing N/A 36.2% 3.4%
AM before election Peter Law Independent Subsequent AM Trish Law Independent

The Assembly by-election had to be held within twelve weeks of the vacancy arising. ^[3] It was announced on 11 May 2006 that the Assembly by-election would be held on 29 June. ^[2]

Candidates

Labour chose John Hopkins, who had already been selected as their 2007 Assembly election candidate, to contest the seat. John Price stood for Plaid Cymru. ^[1] The Liberal Democrats fielded Steve Bard, a councillor in Abertillery. ^[7] The Conservative candidate was Jonathan Burns, a Cardiff councillor. ^[9] Peter Law's widow, Trish Law, stood as an independent backed by the Blaenau Gwent People's Voice Group. ^[10]

The Green Party fought the Assembly election but did not stand at Westminster. ^[14]

Result

Blaenau Gwent Welsh Assembly by-election ^[15]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Independent	Trish Law	13,785	50.3	N/A
	Labour	John Hopkins	9,321	34.0	-36.2
	Liberal Democrats	Steve Bard	2,054	7.5	-3.4
	Plaid Cymru	John Price	1,109	4.0	-5.6
	Conservative	Jonathan Burns	816	3.0	-2.7
	Green	John Matthews	302	1.1	N/A
Majority			4,464	16.3	N/A
Turnout			27,387	49.6	+12.2
Registered electors			52,900
	Independent gain from Labour		Swing	+43.3

Previous result

In 2003, Peter Law was re-elected as the Labour Assembly member for the Blaenau Gwent constituency. By announcing that he would stand as an Independent for the parliamentary constituency he expelled himself from the Labour Party (and the Labour Assembly grouping).

Welsh Assembly Election 2003: Blaenau Gwent ^[16]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Peter Law	13,884	70.2	+9.4
	Liberal Democrats	Steve Bard	2,148	10.9	-0.6
	Plaid Cymru	Rhys Ab Elis	1,889	9.6	-11.6
	Conservative	Barrie O'Keefe	1,131	5.7	+0.2
	UKIP	Roger Thomas	719	3.6	+3.6
Majority			11,736	59.4	+18.7
Turnout			19,771	37.4	-10.7
	Labour hold		Swing
Registered electors			52,927

Electorate and campaign timetables

The electorate for the constituency was 52,900 as quoted by the Returning Officer's Department of Blaenau Gwent Borough Council on 14 May 2006 (-0.75% on the Westminster election and -0.05% on the Assembly election). The close of nominations for the Assembly constituency was on 2 June and for the Westminster seat 14 June.

Campaigns

On 27 April 2006, BBC News published allegations by Peter Law's widow that Law had believed he would be in line for a peerage should he decide not to stand in the 2005 general election. The Labour Party denied that a peerage was offered. ^[6]

Welsh Secretary Peter Hain attempted to build bridges with Law's supporters by apologising for imposing an all-women shortlist and suggesting that those expelled from the Labour Party might be able to rejoin. This apology was rejected by Dai Davies, Peter Law's agent and putative successor, as coming too late and being a cynical ploy to try to win the by-elections. ^[7]

Opinion polls

An opinion poll was conducted by GfK NOP between 24 May and 28 May, which asked 1,000 voters in the constituency how they would vote. The results were:

Westminster

House of Commons seat poll
Party		Candidate	%
	Labour	Owen Smith	47%
	Independent	Dai Davies	35%
	Liberal Democrats	Amy Kitcher	6%
	Plaid Cymru	Steffan Lewis	6%
	Conservative	Margrit Williams	5%

Assembly

Welsh Assembly seat poll
Party		Candidate	%
	Independent	Trish Law	43%
	Labour	John Hopkins	40%
	Plaid Cymru	John Price	6%
	Liberal Democrats	Steve Bard	6%
	Conservative	Jonathan Burns	3%
	Green	John Matthews	2%

See also

• List of United Kingdom by-elections (1979–2010)
• Blaenau Gwent

References

1. "Double poll looming in Law seat". BBC News. 26 April 2006. Retrieved 26 April 2006.
2. "Blaenau Gwent election date set". BBC. 11 May 2006. Retrieved 11 May 2006.
3. Shipton, Martin (26 April 2006). "Outrage at bid for early by-election". Western Mail . Retrieved 26 April 2006.
4. "Losing candidate will become peer". BBC News. 11 April 2006. Retrieved 26 April 2006.
5. "Peter Law, rebel who had a cause". BBC News. 25 April 2006. Retrieved 27 April 2006.
6. "MP 'offered peerage' not to stand". BBC News. 27 April 2006. Retrieved 27 April 2006.
7. "All-women list apology rejected". BBC News. 8 May 2006. Retrieved 8 May 2006.
8. "Viagra-firm lobbyist to stand for Labour in Blaenau Gwent". icWales. 9 May 2006. Retrieved 9 May 2006.
9. "Parties pick by-election hopefuls". BBC News. 9 May 2006. Retrieved 9 May 2006.
10. "Widow gets People's Voice backing". BBC News. 16 May 2006. Retrieved 16 May 2006.
11. "UKIP Annnouces [sic] that it will not stand in Blaenau Gwent by-election". United Kingdom Independence Party. 17 May 2006. Archived from the original on 16 September 2006. Retrieved 2006-06-09.
12. Boothroyd, David. "Results of Byelections in the 2005-2010 Parliament". United Kingdom Election Results. Archived from the original on 27 December 2015. Retrieved 5 October 2015.
13. "Election 2005, Result: Blaenau Gwent". BBC. 6 May 2005. Retrieved 31 January 2015.
14. "By-Elections". by_elections.blogspot.com.
15. "By-Election 2006, Result: Blaenau Gwent". Wales National Assembly. 29 June 2006. Retrieved 1 January 2020.
16. "Election 2003, Result: Blaenau Gwent". BBC. 6 May 2005. Retrieved 1 January 2020.

External links

• Peter Law Campaign literature from the 2005 general election
• Campaign literature from the 2006 Parliamentary by-election
• Campaign literature from the 2006 Welsh Assembly by-election
• Blaenau Gwent Liberal Democrats