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All 57 Scottish seats in the House of Commons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The next United Kingdom general election must be held no later than 15 August 2029, and all 57 Scottish Westminster seats will be contested. The election will determine the composition of the House of Commons, which in turn determines the government of the United Kingdom.
The Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022 mandates that any Parliament automatically dissolves five years after it first met, unless it is dissolved earlier at the request of the prime minister. Polling day must occur no more than 25 working days following dissolution. [1]
All polling companies listed here are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure and sample size rules. The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2024 general election on 4 July 2024 to the present day.
Identified potential target seats using calculation of requiring 5% swing or less from winning party at the 2024 general election for the seat to change hands. For those parties with no target seats using this calculation shows the three seats with smallest swing required for that party to win a seat. Each constituency is linked to data about that constituency that includes details about the 2024 general election result.
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2024 | Swing required | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dundee Central [2] | Scottish National Party | 0.87% | |
| 2 | Arbroath and Broughty Ferry [3] | Scottish National Party | 0.97% | |
| 3 | Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey [4] | Scottish National Party | 1.05% | |
| 4 | Aberdeen North [5] | Scottish National Party | 2.09% | |
| 5 | Aberdeen South [6] | Scottish National Party | 4.05% | |
| 6 | Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale [7] | Conservative Party | 5.49% | |
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2024 | Swing required | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gordon and Buchan [8] | Conservative Party | 1.00% | |
| 2 | Dumfries and Galloway [9] | Conservative Party | 1.02% | |
| 3 | Stirling and Strathallan [10] | Labour Party | 1.40% | |
| 4 | Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire [11] | Liberal Democrats | 2.25% | |
| 5 | West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine [12] | Conservative Party | 3.51% | |
| 6 | Livingston [13] | Labour Party | 3.93% | |
| 7 | Edinburgh East and Musselburgh [14] | Labour Party | 4.08% | |
| 8 | Glenrothes and Mid Fife [15] | Labour Party | 4.09% | |
| 9 | Ayrshire North and Arran [16] | Labour Party | 4.20% | |
| 10 | Glasgow South West [17] | Labour Party | 4.60% | |
| 11 | Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale [7] | Conservative Party | 4.80% | |
| 12 | Glasgow South [18] | Labour Party | 4.90% | |
| 13 | Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch [19] | Labour Party | 5.06% | |
| 14 | Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock [20] | Labour Party | 5.07% | |
| 15 | Glasgow North [21] | Labour Party | 5.09% | |
| 16 | Glasgow East [22] | Labour Party | 5.34% | |
| 17 | Falkirk [23] | Labour Party | 5.86% | |
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2024 | Swing required | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argyll, Bute and Lochaber South [24] | Scottish National Party | 9.16% | |
| 2 | Gordon and Buchanh [25] | Conservative Party | 14.22% | |
| 3 | Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine [26] | Conservative Party | 15.62% | |
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2024 | Swing required | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey [4] | Scottish National Party | 1.08% | |
| 2 | Aberdeenshire North and Moray East [27] | Scottish National Party | 1.23% | |
| 3 | Perth and Kinross-shire [28] | Scottish National Party | 4.12% | |
| 4 | Aberdeen South [6] | Scottish National Party | 4.22% | |
| 5 | Angus and Perthshire Glens [29] | Scottish National Party | 5.14% | |
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2024 | Swing required | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dumfries and Galloway [9] | Conservative Party | 13.44% | |
| 2 | Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey [4] | Scottish National Party | 14.25% | |
| 3 | Glasgow South [18] | Labour Party | 14.35% | |
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2024 | Swing required | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale [7] | Conservative Party | 15.69% | |
| 2 | Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock [20] | Labour Party | 17.67% | |
| 3 | Aberdeen South [30] | Labour Party | 17.81% | |
| MP | Constituency | First elected | Affiliation | Date announced | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | N/A | ||||
