Next United Kingdom general election in Scotland

2024 United Kingdom general election

←  2019 No later than 28 January 2025 [1] Next →
All 57 Scottish seats in the House of Commons
Leader Humza Yousaf Rishi Sunak Ed Davey Party SNP Conservative Liberal Democrats Last election 48 seats, 45.0% 6 seats, 25.1% 4 seats, 9.5% Current seats 43 7 4   Leader Keir Starmer Alex Salmond Party Labour Alba Last election 1 seat, 18.6% Did not exist Current seats 2 2
Map of Scottish constituencies in 2024

The next United Kingdom general election is scheduled to be held no later than 28 January 2025. The election includes Scotland with all 57 Scottish seats to be contested.

Background

The next general election must take place by January 2025 as per provisions of the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022. The Act ensures that Parliament is automatically dissolved on 17 December 2024, if it has not already been dissolved at the request of the Prime Minister. Polling occurs no more than 25 working days after Parliament has been dissolved, allowing for public holidays. ^[2] The current prime minister Rishi Suank has stated he will hold the election in late 2024. ^[3]

Opinion polls

Main article: Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election

All polling companies listed here are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure and sample size rules.

The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2019 general election on 12 December to the present day.

Poll results

Graph of opinion polls conducted in Scotland

Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	SNP	Con	Lab	Lib Dems	Green	Others	Lead
9–12 Apr 2024	Norstat	Sunday Times	1,086	32%	16%	32%	9%	4%	8% Reform UK on 5% Alba on 2% Other on 1%	Tie
6–7 Apr 2024	Redfield &Wilton	N/A	1,000	32%	17%	33%	8%	2%	6% Reform UK on 5% Alba on 2% Other on 0%	1
25 Mar – 2 Apr 2024	YouGov	N/A	1,100	31%	14%	33%	7%	5%	8% Reform UK on 7% Other on 1%	2
10–11 Mar 2024	Redfield & Wilton		1,000	34%	18%	34%	6%	4%	5%	Tie
14–24 Feb 2024	Survation	Quantum Comms	1,005	38%	15%	33%	8%		7%	5
3–4 Feb 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	33%	18%	34%	8%	2%	5%	1
25-31 Jan 2024	Ipsos		1,005	39%	14%	32%	6%	4%	5%	7
23–25 Jan 2024	Survation	True North	1,029	36%	16%	34%	8%		7%	2
22–25 Jan 2024	Norstat	The Sunday Times	1,007	33%	16%	36%	7%	-	8%	3
9–11 Jan 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,040	35%	17%	35%	9%	2%	3%	Tie
26–27 Nov 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,054	34%	17%	36%	6%	3%	3%	2
20–26 Nov 2023	Ipsos	N/A	990	40%	15%	30%	6%	3%	5%	10
29–30 Oct 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,092	32%	23%	32%	8%	2%	3%	Tie
20–25 Oct 2023	YouGov	Scottish Elections Study	1,200	32%	16%	38%	6%	4%	4%	6
6–11 Oct 2023	Savanta	The Scotsman	1,018	35%	19%	35%	6%	–	4%	Tie
2–6 Oct 2023	YouGov	Fabians	1,028	33%	20%	32%	5%	5%	4%	1
5 Oct 2023	Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election [4]
4–5 Oct 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,095	34%	21%	32%	9%	2%	2%	2
2–5 Oct 2023	Panelbase	The Sunday Times		37%	18%	33%	8%	0%	3%	4
4–14 Sep 2023	Opinium	N/A		37%	18%	28%	8%	4%	3%	10
8–13 Sep 2023	YouGov	The Times	1,103	39%	20%	28%	9%	3%	3%	9
2–4 Sep 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	35%	15%	35%	8%	4%	4%	Tie
15–18 Aug 2023	Survation	N/A		37%	17%	35%	7%	6%	3%	2
5–6 Aug 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,050	37%	17%	34%	7%	2%	4%	3
3–8 Aug 2023	YouGov	The Times	1,086	36%	15%	32%	6%	6%	3%	4
1–2 Jul 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,030	35%	21%	32%	7%	2%	3%	3
23–28 Jun 2023	Survation	N/A		37%	17%	34%	9%	0%	3%	3
12–15 Jun 2023	Panelbase	The Sunday Times	1,007	34%	18%	34%	7%	0%	3%	Tie
9–14 Jun 2023	Savanta	N/A		38%	17%	34%	7%	0%	3%	4
3–5 Jun 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,466	37%	20%	28%	9%	3%	3%	9
15–21 May 2023	Ipsos MORI	STV News	1,090	41%	16%	29%	6%	3%	4%	12
27 Apr – 3 May 2023	Survation	True North	1,009	38%	18%	31%	9%	2%	4%	7
30 Apr – 1 May 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,295	35%	18%	32%	9%	3%	3%	3
17–20 Apr 2023	YouGov	The Times	1,032	37%	17%	28%	8%	5%	2%	9
29 Mar – 3 Apr 2023	Survation	N/A	1,001	40%	17%	32%	7%	1%	3%	8
31 Mar – 1 Apr 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	36%	19%	31%	10%	2%	3%	5
28–31 Mar 2023	Savanta	The Scotsman	1,009	39%	19%	33%	6%	–	4%	6
28–30 Mar 2023	Panelbase	The Sunday Times	1,089	39%	19%	31%	5%	–	6%	8
27 Mar 2023	Humza Yousaf is elected leader of the Scottish National Party
9–13 Mar 2023	YouGov	Sky News	1,002	39%	16%	29%	6%	6%	3%	10
8–10 Mar 2023	Survation	Diffley Partnership	1,037	40%	18%	32%	6%	2%	3%	8
7–10 Mar 2023	Panelbase	Scot Goes Pop	1,013	40%	16%	33%	6%	–	5%	7
2–5 Mar 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,050	39%	22%	29%	6%	2%	3%	10
17–20 Feb 2023	YouGov	The Times	1,017	38%	19%	29%	6%	4%	4%	9
15–17 Feb 2023	Survation	N/A	1,034	43%	17%	30%	6%	TBA	3%	13
15–17 Feb 2023	Savanta	The Scotsman	1,004	42%	17%	32%	6%	TBA	3%	10
10–15 Feb 2023	YouGov	Scottish Election Study	1,239	38%	16%	35%	6%	3%	3%	3
1–7 Feb 2023	Survation	N/A	TBA	42%	18%	29%	6%	TBA	TBA	13
23–26 Jan 2023	YouGov	The Sunday Times	1,088	42%	15%	29%	6%	3%	5%	13
10–12 Jan 2023	Survation	True North	1,002	43%	18%	29%	7%	–	2%	14
22 Dec – 1 Jan 2023	Survation	Scotland in Union	1,025	44%	16%	31%	6%	–	1%	13
16–21 Dec 2022	Savanta	The Scotsman	1,048	43%	19%	30%	6%	–	2%	13
6–9 Dec 2022	YouGov	The Times	1,090	43%	14%	29%	6%	4%	4%	14
28 Nov – 5 Dec 2022	Ipsos MORI	STV News	1,045	51%	13%	25%	6%	3%		26
26–27 Nov 2022	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	41%	16%	31%	8%	2%	3%	10
7–11 Oct 2022	Panelbase	Alba Party	1,000+	42%	16%	30%	6%	2%	2%	12
5–7 Oct 2022	Panelbase	The Sunday Times	1,017	45%	15%	30%	5%	–	4%	15
30 Sep – 4 Oct 2022	YouGov	The Times	1,067	45%	12%	31%	7%	3%	2%	14
30 Sep – 4 Oct 2022	ComRes	The Scotsman	1,029	46%	15%	30%	8%	–	1%	16
28–29 Sep 2022	Survation	Scotland in Union	1,011	44%	15%	31%	6%	–	4%	13
17–19 Aug 2022	Panelbase	The Sunday Times	1,133	44%	20%	23%	8%	–	5%	21
29 Jun – 1 Jul 2022	Panelbase	The Sunday Times	1,010	47%	19%	23%	8%	–	3%	24
23–28 Jun 2022	Savanta ComRes	The Scotsman	1,029	46%	18%	25%	8%	–	3%	21
23–29 May 2022	Ipsos	STV News	1,000	44%	19%	23%	10%	3%	2%	21
18–23 May 2022	YouGov	The Times	1,115	46%	19%	22%	6%	3%	3%	24
5 May 2022	Local elections held in Scotland
26–29 Apr 2022	Panelbase	The Sunday Times	1,009	42%	21%	24%	7%	–	5%	18
25–31 Mar 2022	BMG Research	The Herald	1,012	42%	19%	26%	6%	4%	2%	16
24–28 Mar 2022	Survation	Ballot Box Scotland	1,002	45%	19%	27%	6%	–	2%	18
1–4 Feb 2022	Panelbase	The Sunday Times	1,128	44%	20%	24%	8%	2%	2%	20
15–22 Dec 2021	Opinium	Daily Record	1,328	48%	17%	22%	7%	3%	4%	26
18–22 Nov 2021	YouGov	The Times	1,060	48%	20%	18%	6%	3%	4%	28
9–12 Nov 2021	Panelbase	The Sunday Times	1,000~	48%	21%	20%	7%	–	4%	27
20–26 Oct 2021	Panelbase	Scot Goes Pop	1,001	48%	21%	21%	7%	–	4%	27
6–10 Sep 2021	Panelbase	The Sunday Times	2,003	47%	23%	19%	7%	–	4%	24
2–8 Sep 2021	Opinium	Sky News	1,014	51%	21%	17%	5%	2%	3%	30
20 Aug 2021	Alex Cole-Hamilton becomes leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats [5]
16–24 Jun 2021	Panelbase	The Sunday Times	1,287	47%	25%	18%	6%	–	4%	22
13 May 2021	Airdrie and Shotts by-election [4]
6 May 2021	Election to the Scottish Parliament [6]
2–4 May 2021	YouGov	The Times	1,144	48%	22%	19%	5%	4%	3%	26
30 Apr – 4 May 2021	Survation	DC Thomson	1,008	48%	22%	20%	7%	1%	1%	26
28 Apr – 03 May 2021	Opinium	Sky News	1,015	47%	25%	20%	6%	1%	1%	22
27–30 Apr 2021	BMG Research	The Herald	1,023	48%	20%	20%	7%	3%	1%	28
23–26 Apr 2021	Survation	Good Morning Britain	1,008	46%	22%	22%	8%	–	2%	24
21–26 Apr 2021	Panelbase	Scot Goes Pop	1,075	45%	22%	19%	7%	4%	3%	23
20–22 Apr 2021	Survation	DC Thomson	1,037	47%	21%	22%	8%	1%	1%	25
16–20 Apr 2021	YouGov	The Times	1,204	48%	24%	19%	4%	3%	3%	24
1–6 Apr 2021	Opinium	Sky News	1,023	50%	24%	19%	4%	1%	1%	26
29–30 Mar 2021	Survation	The Courier	1,021	49%	21%	21%	8%	1%	0%	28
19–22 Mar 2021	YouGov	The Times	TBA	49%	24%	17%	4%	4%	2%	25
16–19 Mar 2021	BMG Research	The Herald	1,021	47%	21%	19%	7%	3%	3%	26
11–18 Mar 2021	Survation	The Courier	1,452	49%	21%	21%	7%	1%	1%	28
11–16 Mar 2021	Opinium	Sky News	1,096	50%	23%	19%	5%	3%	1%	27
4–8 Mar 2021	YouGov	The Times	1,100	50%	23%	17%	5%	3%	2%	27
27 Feb 2021	Anas Sarwar is elected leader of Scottish Labour [7]
25–26 Feb 2021	Survation	Daily Record	1,011	48%	23%	21%	6%	–	2%	25
11–13 Jan 2021	Survation	Scot Goes Pop	1,020	48%	19%	23%	7%	–	3%	25
4–9 Dec 2020	Survation	N/A	1,009	51%	20%	21%	6%	3%	–	30
5–11 Nov 2020	Panelbase	Scot Goes Pop	1,020	50%	21%	20%	5%	2%	–	29
6–10 Nov 2020	YouGov	The Times	1,089	53%	19%	17%	4%	3%	3%	34
28 Oct – 4 Nov 2020	Survation	N/A	1,059	52%	18%	20%	8%	–	2%	32
17–21 Sep 2020	JL Partners	Politico	1,016	56%	18%	15%	7%	3%		38
2–7 Sep 2020	Survation	N/A	1,018	51%	20%	21%	6%	–	3%	30
6–10 Aug 2020	YouGov	The Times	1,142	54%	20%	16%	5%	2%	2%	34
5 Aug 2020	Douglas Ross becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives [8]
30 Jun – 3 Jul 2020	Panelbase	The Sunday Times	1,026	53%	21%	19%	6%	–	2%	32
1–5 Jun 2020	Panelbase	Scot Goes Pop	1,022	51%	21%	19%	6%	2%	1%	30
1–5 May 2020	Panelbase	Wings Over Scotland	1,086	50%	26%	17%	5%	2%	1%	24
24–27 Apr 2020	YouGov	N/A	1,095	51%	25%	15%	6%	2%	1%	26
24–26 Mar 2020	Panelbase	The Sunday Times	1,023	48%	27%	16%	5%	3%	–	21
14 Feb 2020	Jackson Carlaw becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives [9]
12 Dec 2019	2019 general election		–	45.0%	25.1%	18.6%	9.5%	1.0%	0.8%	19.9

Boundary review

In March 2020, Cabinet Office minister Chloe Smith confirmed that the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies would be based on retaining 650 seats. ^{[10] [11]} The previous relevant legislation was amended by the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020 ^[12] and the four boundary commissions formally launched their 2023 reviews on 5 January 2021. ^{[4] [13] [14] [15]} They were required to issue their final reports prior to 1 July 2023. The Scottish commission published its own report on 28 June. ^{[16] [17]} As the reports were laid before Parliament, Orders in Council giving effect to the final proposals must be made within four months, unless "there are exceptional circumstances". Prior to the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020, boundary changes could not be implemented until they were approved by both Houses of Parliament.

Fifty-seven single member constituencies will be used in Scotland for the next election, a reduction of two since 2019. A number of constituencies were unchanged, including the two protected constituencies of Na h-Eileanan an Iar covering the Western Isles, and Orkney and Shetland, covering the Northern Isles. ^[18]

Target seats

Below are listed all the constituencies from the previous election which require a swing of less than 5% from the 2019 result to change hands. Many of these seats will not exist in this form at the Next United Kingdom general election.

Scottish Conservatives

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2019		Swing required	Conservatives' place 2019
1	Gordon		SNP	0.73%	2nd
2	Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock		SNP	2.50%	2nd
3	Ochil and South Perthshire		SNP	3.89%	2nd
4	Argyll and Bute		SNP	4.28%	2nd
5	Aberdeen South		SNP	4.37%	2nd
6	Angus		SNP	4.40%	2nd
7	East Lothian		SNP	4.81%	3rd
8	Lanark and Hamilton East		SNP	4.89%	2nd
9	East Renfrewshire		SNP	4.90%	2nd

Scottish Labour

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2019		Swing required	Labour's place 2019
1	Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath		SNP	1.32%	2nd
2	East Lothian		SNP	3.32%	2nd
3	Glasgow North East		SNP	3.76%	2nd
4	Rutherglen and Hamilton West		SNP	4.86%	2nd

Scottish Liberal Democrats

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2019		Swing Required	Liberal Democrats' place 2019
1	East Dunbartonshire		SNP	0.14%	2nd

Scottish National Party

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2019		Swing required	SNP's place 2019
1	Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross		Liberal Democrats	0.32%	2nd
2	Moray		Conservative	0.53%	2nd
3	West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine		Conservative	0.79%	2nd
4	North East Fife		Liberal Democrats	1.43%	2nd
5	Dumfries and Galloway		Conservative	1.75%	2nd
6	Edinburgh West		Liberal Democrats	3.46%	2nd
7	Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale		Conservative	3.85%	2nd
8	Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk		Conservative	4.84%	2nd
9	Banff and Buchan		Conservative	4.87%	2nd

MPs not seeking re-election

Members of Parliament not standing for re-election

MP	Seat	First elected	Party		Date announced	Note
Douglas Ross	Moray	2017		Conservative	14 October 2021 [19]	Current leader of the Scottish Conservatives
Alister Jack	Dumfries and Galloway	2017		Conservative	17 May 2023 [20]	Current Scottish Secretary
Ian Blackford	Ross, Skye and Lochaber	2015		SNP	6 June 2023 [21]	Former leader of SNP Westminster group
Peter Grant	Glenrothes	2015		SNP	21 June 2023 [22]
Angela Crawley	Lanark and Hamilton East	2015		SNP	23 June 2023 [23]	Former SNP shadow Attorney General
Douglas Chapman	Dunfermline and West Fife	2015		SNP	26 June 2023 [24]
Stewart Hosie	Dundee East	2005		SNP	28 June 2023 [25]	Current SNP shadow Chancellor
Mhairi Black	Paisley and Renfrewshire South	2015		SNP	4 July 2023 [26]	Current deputy leader of SNP Westminster group
John McNally	Falkirk	2015		SNP	10 July 2023 [27]
Philippa Whitford	Central Ayrshire	2015		SNP	18 July 2023 [28]	Current SNP Spokesperson for Scotland
Lisa Cameron	East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow	2015		Conservative [lower-alpha 1]	17 October 2023 [29]	Elected SNP

See also

• Next Scottish Parliament election
• Opinion polling on Scottish independence
• Next United Kingdom general election
• Next United Kingdom general election in Northern Ireland
• Next United Kingdom general election in Wales

Notes

1. Originally elected from the SNP, defected to the Conservatives in October 2023.

References

1. "General elections". parliament.uk. Retrieved 6 May 2023. The maximum term of a Parliament is five years from the day on which it first met. The current Parliament first met on Tuesday 17 December 2019 and will automatically dissolve on Tuesday 17 December 2024, unless it has been dissolved sooner by the King.
2. "When Is The Next UK General Election?". Politics.co.uk. Retrieved 18 April 2023.
3. Stacey, Kiran (4 January 2024). "Rishi Sunak indicates he will not call election until second half of 2024". The Guardian . Archived from the original on 21 February 2024.
4. "2023 Review launched". Boundary Commission for England. Retrieved 7 January 2021.
5. "Alex Cole-Hamilton confirmed as new Lib Dem leader". BBC News . 20 August 2020. Archived from the original on 20 August 2021. Retrieved 21 August 2021.
6. "Scottish Parliament election 2021". BBC News. Archived from the original on 11 October 2021. Retrieved 15 May 2021.
7. "Anas Sarwar elected as new leader of Scottish Labour Party". Labour List. 27 February 2021. Archived from the original on 22 May 2021. Retrieved 8 March 2021.
8. "Douglas Ross confirmed as Scottish Conservative leader". BBC News. 5 August 2020. Archived from the original on 26 January 2022. Retrieved 8 March 2021.
9. "Scottish Conservatives: Jackson Carlaw succeeds Ruth Davidson as leader". BBC News. 14 February 2020. Archived from the original on 9 March 2022. Retrieved 8 March 2021.
10. Smith, Chloe (24 March 2020). "Legislation to set the framework and rules for future Parliamentary constituency boundary reviews" (PDF). Letter to William Wragg. Cabinet Office 70 Whitehall London SW1A 2AS: parliament.uk. Archived (PDF) from the original on 21 February 2024.
11. Proctor, Kate (26 March 2020). "MPs no longer to get automatic vote on constituency boundary plans". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077. Archived from the original on 21 February 2024.
12. "Parliamentary Constituencies Act". legislation.gov.uk. 14 December 2020. Archived from the original on 21 February 2024. Retrieved 17 December 2020.
13. "2023 Review of UK Parliament Constituencies". Boundary Commission for Scotland. Retrieved 7 January 2021.
14. "2023 Review". Boundary Commission for Wales. Retrieved 7 January 2021.
15. "2023 Review: Electoral Quota and Allocation of Constituencies Announced". Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland. 5 January 2021. Retrieved 7 January 2021.
16. "2023 Review of UK Parliament Constituencies Boundary Commission for Scotland Final Recommendations laid before Parliament" (PDF). 28 June 2023.
17. "Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020". legislation.gov.uk. Archived from the original on 6 August 2021.
18. "2023 Review of UK Parliament Constituencies". bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk. Thistle House 91 Haymarket Terrace Edinburgh, EH12 5HD. 28 June 2023. Archived from the original on 21 February 2024. Retrieved 21 February 2024.
19. Malik, Paul (14 October 2021). "Westminster boundary shake-up will impact all Courier voters'". The Courier. Retrieved 14 October 2021.
20. "Scottish Secretary Alister Jack to stand down at the next election". BBC News. 17 May 2023.
21. "Ian Blackford to stand down as SNP MP at next election". BBC News. 6 June 2023. Retrieved 7 June 2023.
22. Gilmour, Lauren (21 June 2023). "Second SNP MP to stand down at next election". The Independent.
23. Elliards, Xander (23 June 2023). "SNP MP Angela Crawley to step down at next General Election". thenational.scot. Retrieved 23 June 2023.
24. Meighan, Craig (26 June 2023). "Former SNP treasurer to stand down at next general election". STV News. Retrieved 28 June 2023.
25. "Dundee East MP Stewart Hosie to stand down at next election". BBC News. 28 June 2023. Retrieved 30 June 2023.
26. "Mhairi Black to step down as SNP MP at next election". BBC News . 4 July 2023. Retrieved 5 July 2023.
27. "Falkirk SNP MP John McNally announces he will be stepping down at next UK general election". BBC News . 10 July 2023. Retrieved 10 July 2023.
28. Dr Philippa Whitford [@Dr_PhilippaW] (18 July 2023). "As I approach retirement next year, I want to thank all those who have supported me during my time as an MP, as well as the wonderful people I worked with in ⁦@NHSScotland⁩. I will continue to campaign for Scotland's right to self-determination & for #ScottishIndependence!" (Tweet). Archived from the original on 21 February 2024 – via Twitter.
29. "MP Lisa Cameron rejects calls for a by-election". BBC News. 17 October 2023. Retrieved 20 October 2023.