2021 Chesham and Amersham by-election

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2021 Chesham and Amersham by-election
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Chesham and Amersham constituency
Turnout52.1%
 First partySecond party
 
Official portrait of Sarah Green MP.jpg
Con
Candidate Sarah Green Peter Fleet
Party Liberal Democrats Conservative
Last election26.3%55.4%
Popular vote21,51713,489
Percentage56.7%35.5%
SwingIncrease2.svg 30.4pp Decrease2.svg 19.9pp
MP before election

Cheryl Gillan
Conservative

Elected MP

Sarah Green
Liberal Democrats

A by-election was held in the United Kingdom Parliament constituency of Chesham and Amersham on 17 June 2021, following the death of the sitting member, Dame Cheryl Gillan, on 4 April 2021. Gillan had served as MP for the constituency since 1992. [2] The by-election was the third to the 58th Parliament, which was elected in 2019. [3]

Contents

The Liberal Democrat candidate, Sarah Green, won the by-election with 56.7% of the vote and a swing from the Conservatives of 25.2%. This is the first time a non-Conservative candidate has won this seat since its formation in 1974. [4]

This was the first of four by-elections won by the Liberal Democrats in this parliament; they subsequently won the by-elections in North Shropshire, in December 2021, [5] in Tiverton and Honiton, in June 2022, [6] and in Somerton and Frome, in July 2023. [7]

Background

Constituency

Chesham and Amersham, named after the market towns of Chesham and Amersham in the constituency, was held by the Conservative Party since its creation at the February 1974 election until the by-election. The local authority is Buckinghamshire Council and the seat is coterminous with the abolished Chiltern District. The area is in the London commuter belt, and is home to many affluent professionals. [8]

History

In June 2016, 55% of voters in the coterminous Chiltern District voted to remain in the European Union (EU) in the EU membership referendum. The estimated turnout of 83.6% was the highest figure for any constituency in the UK, with only Gibraltar reporting a higher percentage. [9] At the 2019 European Parliament elections, the pro-EU Liberal Democrats were the most popular party in the Chiltern District with 31.9%, with the pro-Leave Brexit Party in second place with 30%. [10] Despite the seat voting Remain, Gillan, a supporter of Brexit, was re-elected with over half the vote in both the general elections following the referendum. Following the 2019 election, it was the Liberal Democrats' 51st target going into the next election, requiring a swing of 14.6 to win. [11]

Campaign

Candidates

Tactical proposal

On 9 May, former Conservative MP Phillip Lee, who joined the Liberal Democrats before the 2019 election, urged the Labour and Green parties not to stand candidates in the by-election to avoid vote splitting. Lee argued that the Conservative Party would be more likely to lose if the anti-Conservative vote went to the Liberal Democrat candidate alone. [24] Writing in The Guardian on 14 May, columnist Polly Toynbee also called for an electoral alliance of the Liberal Democrats, Labour and the Green Party to beat the Conservatives. [25] However, all three parties contested the by-election.

Writ and polls

On 12 May, the writ for the by-election was moved in the House of Commons by Government Chief Whip Mark Spencer. [26] [27]

On 30 May, The Independent reported that internal party polling by the Liberal Democrats put the Conservatives on 45.5% and the Liberal Democrats on 35.1%, a swing of 9.35% to them. The same survey also found 60% of Labour and Green voters were willing to vote tactically. [28] Further internal party polling by the Liberal Democrats, reported by City A.M. , found a closer margin, with the Conservatives on 45% and the Liberal Democrats on 41%. Despite these figures, YouGov's director of political research said "the by-election will be tough to win for the Lib Dems" due to the party putting itself up against a "popular government", unlike when it had won by-elections in the past. [29] Lib Dem leader Ed Davey said that he visited the constituency 16 times during the campaign. [30] [ non-primary source needed ]

Results

Bar chart of the election result. 2021 Chesham and Amersham by-election.svg
Bar chart of the election result.
2021 by-election: Chesham and Amersham [31]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Liberal Democrats Sarah Green 21,517 56.7 +30.4
Conservative Peter Fleet13,48935.5–19.9
Green Carolyne Culver1,4803.9–1.6
Labour Natasa Pantelic6221.6–11.2
Reform UK Alex Wilson4141.1N/A
Breakthrough Party Carla Gregory1970.5N/A
Freedom AllianceAdrian Oliver1340.4N/A
Rejoin EU Brendan Donnelly 1010.3N/A
Majority8,02821.2N/A
Registered electors 72,828
Turnout 37,95452.1–24.7
Liberal Democrats gain from Conservative Swing 25.2

Response

The results shocked the political landscape, as politicians and pundits had predicted a Conservative win in the run-up to the by-election. [32] John Curtice, Professor of Politics at the University of Strathclyde, expressed the view that the Liberal Democrats overperformed and compared the by-election to the 1991 Ribble Valley by-election, in which the Liberal Democrats gained a Conservative seat because of local issues. He relayed some locals were "hearing the Conservatives talking endlessly, talking about 'levelling up' – wondering really, well what is, quite, in it for us?" [33] Some commentators suggested the result may indicate wider difficulties for the Conservative Party across the south of England, drawing comparisons to the Labour Party's problems holding on to many of its older bases of support. [34] [35] [36]

This was the lowest ever share of the vote in a Westminster election by a Labour Party candidate. [33]

Previous result

General election 2019: Chesham and Amersham [37]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Conservative Cheryl Gillan 30,850 55.4 –5.3
Liberal Democrats Dan Gallagher14,62726.3+13.3
Labour Matt Turmaine7,16612.9–7.7
Green Alan Booth3,0425.5+2.5
Majority16,22329.1–11.0
Turnout 55,97876.8–0.3
Conservative hold Swing –9.3

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References

  1. ↑ "Election timetable and notices". Buckinghamshire Council. Archived from the original on 17 May 2021. Retrieved 17 May 2021.
  2. ↑ Smith, Mikey (5 April 2021). "Tory MP Dame Cheryl Gillan dies aged 68". Daily Mirror . Reach plc. Archived from the original on 5 April 2021. Retrieved 5 April 2021.
  3. ↑ "By-elections since the 2019 General Election". UK Parliament. Archived from the original on 9 May 2021. Retrieved 6 April 2021.
  4. ↑ Stewart, Heather; Siddique, Haroon (18 June 2021). "Lib Dems win Chesham and Amersham byelection in stunning upset". The Guardian . Archived from the original on 18 June 2021. Retrieved 18 June 2021.
  5. ↑ "Tories lose North Shropshire seat they held for nearly 200 years". BBC News. 17 December 2021. Archived from the original on 17 December 2021. Retrieved 30 June 2022.
  6. ↑ Walker, Peter (24 June 2022). "Tories lose two key byelections on same night in Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton". The Guardian . Retrieved 30 June 2022.
  7. ↑ "Somerton win means there are 10 Lib Dem women MPs in Commons". BBC News. 21 July 2023. Archived from the original on 17 December 2021. Retrieved 22 July 2023.
  8. ↑ "April 2021 constituency reports: Chesham and Amersham". Nomis: Official Labour Market Statistics. Office for National Statistics. Archived from the original on 2 June 2021.
  9. ↑ "EU Referendum Results and Turnout". Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 1 April 2021. Retrieved 5 April 2021.
  10. ↑ "European Union Parliamentary Election Result". Chiltern District Council. Archived from the original on 1 October 2020. Retrieved 5 April 2021.
  11. ↑ "Liberal Democrat Target Seats". Election Polling. Retrieved 17 May 2023.
  12. ↑ Reid, Mary (5 May 2021). "Sarah Green selected for Chesham & Amersham". Liberal Democrat Voice. Archived from the original on 6 May 2021. Retrieved 6 May 2021.
  13. ↑ Sheth Trivedi, Shruti (10 May 2021). "Lib Dem candidate joins race to replace late MP Dame Cheryl Gillan". Bucks Free Press. Archived from the original on 10 May 2021. Retrieved 10 May 2021.
  14. ↑ Sheth Trivedi, Shruti (6 May 2021). "Conservatives name man who could replace Dame Cheryl Gillan as MP". Bucks Free Press. Archived from the original on 6 May 2021. Retrieved 6 May 2021.
  15. ↑ "Fleet wins the Conservative selection for the Chesham and Amersham by-election". ConservativeHome. 6 May 2021. Archived from the original on 6 May 2021. Retrieved 6 May 2021.
  16. ↑ Arnold, Matthew (25 April 2002). "PROFILE: Big blue – Peter Fleet, Director of marketing, Ford of Britain". Campaign. Archived from the original on 7 May 2021. Retrieved 6 May 2021. In 1997, he stood as a Conservative MP for Southampton Itchen, getting a 28.4% share of the vote.
  17. ↑ Sheth Trivedi, Shruti (7 May 2021). "Green Party announces candidate in the running to replace late Dame Cheryl Gillan as MP". Bucks Free Press. Archived from the original on 7 May 2021. Retrieved 8 May 2021.
  18. ↑ Sheth Trivedi, Shruti (25 May 2021). "Single mum-of-two joins the race to become next Chesham and Amersham MP". Bucks Free Press. Archived from the original on 25 May 2021. Retrieved 25 May 2021.
  19. ↑ "Why this local woman is taking the fight to the established parties in an upcoming by-election". nationalworld.com. Archived from the original on 21 May 2021. Retrieved 21 May 2021.
  20. ↑ Joy, Matt (18 May 2021). "Slough Councillor selected as Labour candidate for by-election". Bucks Free Press. Archived from the original on 18 May 2021. Retrieved 18 May 2021.
  21. ↑ Chappell, Elliot (18 May 2021). "Labour selects Slough councillor to fight Chesham and Amersham by-election". LabourList. Archived from the original on 18 May 2021. Retrieved 18 May 2021.
  22. ↑ "Peeps", Camden New Journal, 10 June 2021 (no 2029), pp. 12–3.
  23. 1 2 "HS2: Chesham and Amersham by-election candidates' policies". BBC News. 14 June 2021. Archived from the original on 19 December 2021. Retrieved 19 December 2021.
  24. ↑ Sheth Trivedi, Shruti (13 May 2021). "Tory defector urges Labour and Green Party NOT to stand in upcoming by-election 'so Tories will lose'". Bucks Free Press. Archived from the original on 13 May 2021. Retrieved 13 May 2021.
  25. ↑ Polly Toynbee (13 May 2021). "If only Labour would start striking deals on seats, think what it could do". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 14 May 2021. Retrieved 14 May 2021.
  26. ↑ "House of Commons – Wednesday 12 May 2021". parliamentlive.tv. Archived from the original on 12 May 2021. Retrieved 12 May 2021.
  27. ↑ "Speaker's Statement – Wednesday 12 May 2021 – Hansard". Hansard. UK Parliament. 12 May 2021. Archived from the original on 13 May 2021. Retrieved 13 May 2021.
  28. ↑ Woodcock, Andrew (29 May 2021). "Discontent in Tory shires over PM's focus on 'Red Wall' fuels Lib Dem hopes of by-election breakthrough". The Independent . Archived from the original on 30 May 2021. Retrieved 30 May 2021.(registration required)
  29. ↑ Boscia, Stefan (15 June 2021). "Exclusive: Lib Dems and Tories neck-and-neck in Chesham and Amersham by-election poll". City A.M. Archived from the original on 15 June 2021. Retrieved 15 June 2021.
  30. ↑ BBC Breakfast [@BBCBreakfast] (18 June 2021). ""The Conservatives are doing well in the polls but the lead is fragile" Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey tells #BBCBreakfast he visited the Chesham and Amersham constituency 16-times during the by-election campaign. More: bbc.in/3wCxkBk" (Tweet). Archived from the original on 18 June 2021. Retrieved 18 June 2021– via Twitter.
  31. ↑ "Election results for Chesham & Amersham, 17 June 2021". Buckinghamshire Council . 17 June 2021. Archived from the original on 18 June 2021. Retrieved 18 June 2021.
  32. ↑ Hughes, David (17 June 2021). "Polls close in 'knife-edge' Chesham and Amersham by-election". Evening Standard. Archived from the original on 9 July 2021. Retrieved 1 July 2021.
  33. 1 2 GB News (18 June 2021). "John Curtice: By-election result is 'warning for Conservatives'". YouTube. Archived from the original on 24 June 2021. Retrieved 18 June 2021.
  34. ↑ Rea, Ailbhe (17 June 2021). "Are the Conservatives about to suffer defeat in the "Blue Wall"?". www.newstatesman.com. Archived from the original on 19 June 2021. Retrieved 19 June 2021.
  35. ↑ Savage, Michael; Helm, Toby; Tapper, James (19 June 2021). "The blue wall: what next for the Tories after a shock byelection defeat?". the Guardian. Archived from the original on 19 June 2021. Retrieved 19 June 2021.
  36. ↑ Jeffrey, Luke (18 June 2021). "Crumbling in the Blue Wall: The picture after Chesham and Amersham". Politics.co.uk. Archived from the original on 19 June 2021. Retrieved 19 June 2021.
  37. ↑ "Chesham & Amersham Parliamentary constituency". BBC News. BBC. Archived from the original on 3 May 2021. Retrieved 5 April 2021.
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