Composition of German states' governing coalitionsBreakdown of seats in the 20th Bundestag, elected in the 2021 German federal elections. From left to right, the parties are:
In Germany's federal electoral system, a single party or parliamentary group rarely wins an absolute majority of seats in the Bundestag, and thus coalition governments, rather than single-party governments, are the usually expected outcome of a German election.[1] As German political parties are often associated with particular colors, coalitions are frequently given nicknames based on the colors included.[2][3] Prominent political parties in Germany are the CDU/CSU (black), the SPD (red), the Greens (green), the Left (red, or alternatively magenta to distinguish from the SPD), the AfD (blue), and the FDP (yellow).[4]
Since the founding of the Federal Republic of Germany in 1949, the country has traditionally used proportional representation both at the federal level and in the states. Because a multi-party system has emerged with two major parties (CDU/CSU and SPD) and a number of smaller parties that are nevertheless frequently represented in parliaments (Alliance 90/The Greens, FDP, The Left, AfD), single-party governments with absolute majorities are quite rare.
At the federal level, a single-party government has occurred only once so far: Between 1957 and 1961, the CDU/CSU held an absolute majority in the Bundestag and was able to govern alone (cabinet Adenauer III); even then, the minor German Party was included in the government for the first three years of its existence, and the government was not a fully single-faction cabinet until those ministers joined the CDU in July 1960. In the states, too, single-party governments have been quite rare, with the exception of the Free State of Bavaria, where the CSU has many times been able to achieve absolute majorities in state elections. As of January 2024, only one of 16 German states, Saarland, has a single-party government, consisting solely of the SPD.
There are two two-party coalitions usually preferred for reasons of ideological proximity; the center-right black/yellow coalition (CDU/CSU and FDP) and the center-left red/green coalition (SPD and Alliance 90/The Greens). A third type of two-party-coalition, which occurs especially after inconclusive election results, is the grand coalition of the two larger parties CDU/CSU and SPD. Such coalitions are rare due to the ideological difference between the two, but have become more common in the 21st century, with three of Angela Merkel's four governments being grand coalitions. Parties frequently make statements ahead of elections about which coalitions they categorically reject.
In Germany, coalitions rarely consist of more than two parties (CDU and CSU, two allies which on the federal level always forms the CDU/CSUcaucus, counted as a single party). However, starting in the 2010s coalitions at the state level increasingly have included three parties, often the FDP, Greens and one of the major parties, or "red-red-green" coalitions of the SPD, Left and Greens. As of 2017, the Greens have joined governments on the state level in ten coalitions in seven various combinations.[5]
In December 2021, following the September German general elections, a traffic light coalition (SPD, FDP, and Greens) led by Olaf Scholz took power in Germany, the first time a three-party coalition had formed at the federal level.[6]
Übergroß coalitions
Übergroß coalitions (über + groß meaning extra large) are coalitions that include more parties than mathematically necessary for a majority. However, generally the parties are reluctant to join coalitions where they are not mathematically needed towards a majority. Übergroß coalitions are usually formed in times of crisis, or when the coalition parties deem it necessary for other reasons.
Such a coalition may be assembled when a supermajority is needed, such as for making constitutional amendments. For this reason, they were common during the early days of the Federal Republic. At the federal level they were formed twice (Adenauer II, where CDU/CSU came just one seat short of majority and could have formed a coalition with just one party, but chose to form a coalition with three (FDP, DP and GB/BHE; and the aforementioned Adenauer III). At the state level, the last time until 2021 that such a coalition was formed was in Hamburg following the 1970 elections, where the SPD alone held a 10-seat majority, but still chose to go into coalition with the FDP.
Alternatively, an übergroß coalition may be created to avoid problems stemming from an undisciplined parliamentary groups, where too narrow a majority carries a strong risk of failure. For example, in Saxony-Anhalt following the 2021 state election, a grand coalition would have held a one-seat majority, but Minister President Reiner Haseloff (CDU) also chose to include the FDP and form a Germany coalition. When the Landtag met to elect a minister president, he unexpectedly failed to get elected on the first ballot, falling just one vote short, which was attributed to right-wing dissent within his party. He was elected on the second ballot.[7]
A coalition of CDU/CSU, AfD and FDP would have a majority in the 20th Bundestag elected in 2021[b], but was not seriously discussed publicly by either media or politicians. This hypothetical coalition has been described as the "Bahamas coalition", in reference to the colors of the flag of the Bahamas, as early as 2013.[8][9] Following the 2019 Thuringian state election, the election of Thomas Kemmerich by members of the three parties[c] sparked a government crisis which ultimately led to Kemmerich's resignation.
A hypothetical coalition involving CDU/CSU and AfD, also referred as a "black–blue coalition"[10] or "midnight coalition", would have a majority in the following Landtag elections:
However, each time the CDU (or in Bavaria, the CSU) rejected this due to the cordon sanitaire.
Other coalitions involving the AfD are considered even more unlikely due to ideological differences and a lack of parliamentary majorities, in addition to the cordon sanitaire.[citation needed]
See also
Great Coalition (Weimar Republic), comprising the main pro-democratic parties at the time: the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the German Centre Party (DZP), the German Democratic Party (DDP), and the German People's Party (DVP).
↑ Inverted coalition composition, where the Greens are the coalition leader with 58 seats, and the CDU is the junior partner with 42 seats.
↑ Prior to the repeat election in Berlin, 369 seats were needed for a majority. CDU 197, FDP 92, AfD 83, total 372 seats.
↑ 46 seats needed for a majority, AfD 22, CDU 21, FDP 5. Total 48 seats, of which 45 voted for Kemmerich in the plurality vote.
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↑ Constantin Wurthmann, L. (2024-01-02). "Black–Blue or Bahamas? Explaining CDU, CSU, FDP and AfD Voter Attitudes Towards a Common Governmental Coalition Before the 2017 German Federal Election". German Politics. 33 (1): 110–132. doi:10.1080/09644008.2022.2056593. ISSN0964-4008.
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