2023 Hessian state election

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2023 Hessian state election
Flag of Hesse.svg
  2018 8 October 2023Next 

All 133 seats of the Landtag of Hesse, including 23 overhang and leveling seats
67 seats needed for a majority
Turnout2,812,560 (64.9%)
Decrease2.svg 2.4%
 First partySecond partyThird party
 
Boris Rhein (Martin Rulsch) 2013-02-26 2.jpg
MJK 43662 Robert Lambrou (Hessischer Landtag 2019).jpg
2023-02-12 BMW IBU World Championships Biathlon Oberhof 2023 - Men 12.5 km Pursuit by Sandro Halank-004.jpg
Leader Boris Rhein Robert Lambrou Nancy Faeser
Party CDU AfD SPD
Last election40 seats, 27.0%19 seats, 13.1%29 seats, 19.8%
Seats won522823
Seat changeIncrease2.svg 12Increase2.svg 9Decrease2.svg 6
Popular vote972,876518,763424,587
Percentage34.6%18.4%15.1%
SwingIncrease2.svg 7.6%Increase2.svg 5.3%Decrease2.svg 4.7%

 Fourth partyFifth partySixth party
 
2016-02-04 Tarek Al-Wazir - MdL Hessen - 3647-2.jpg
MJK 43467 Stefan Naas (Hessischer Landtag 2019).jpg
Die Linke
Leader Tarek Al-Wazir Stefan Naas Elisabeth Kula
Jan Schalauske
Party Greens FDP Left
Last election29 seats, 19.8%11 seats, 7.5%9 seats, 6.3%
Seats won2280
Seat changeDecrease2.svg 7Decrease2.svg 3Decrease2.svg 9
Popular vote416,035141,64486,842
Percentage14.8%5.0%3.1%
SwingDecrease2.svg 5.0%Decrease2.svg 2.5%Decrease2.svg 3.2%

Hesse State Election 2023.svg
Map of the election, showing the winner of each single-member district and the distribution of list seats

Government before election

First Rhein cabinet
CDUGreen

Government after election

Second Rhein cabinet
CDUSPD

The 2023 Hessian state elections was held on Sunday October 8, to elect the 21st Landtag of Hesse. [1] The outgoing government was a coalition of the Christian Democratic Union and The Greens, led by Minister-President Boris Rhein of the CDU. The 2023 Bavarian state election was held the same day.

Contents

The result was a clear victory for the CDU, which took almost 35% of the vote on a swing of 7.6 percentage points. At 18%, the Alternative for Germany lifted its vote by over five points and became the second-largest party in a Western state for the first time. The Greens conversely lost five points, falling to fourth place on 15%, just behind the opposition Social Democratic Party (SPD) which suffered similar losses. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) narrowly passed the 5% electoral threshold with a 5.035% vote share; meanwhile, The Left fell to 3.1% and lost all their seats. [2]

Overall, the incumbent coalition increased its majority, with a strengthened position for the leading CDU. The result, amidst a campaign dominated by federal issues such as immigration, was perceived as a blow for the federal government, with its three member parties – the SPD, Greens, and FDP – all suffering losses. The results also indicated the increasing popularity of the far-right AfD, which in previous months had moved into second place in federal opinion polling. [3] [4]

Election organization

Election date

Article 79 of the Constitution of Hesse stipulates that the state parliament is elected for five years. The new election must take place before the end of the electoral period. According to Section 1 of the Hessian state election law, the election must take place on a Sunday or public holiday. The day of the election is determined by the state government by ordinance.

Since the 20th state parliament was constituted on January 18, 2019, Sunday, January 14, 2024, is the latest possible date for the election to the 21st Hessian state parliament.

On January 17, 2023, the Rhein cabinet decided to set October 8, 2023 as the election day. It follows the tradition that voting takes place in Hesse in the three months before the end of the electoral period. The Bavarian state election took place the same day.

Electoral system

Parties and voter groups that have not been represented in the state parliament without interruption since the last state election need 1,000 signatures for their state list and 50 for their district election proposals.

The Landtag is elected using mixed-member proportional representation. Every voter has two votes, one for a candidate on the state list and one for a candidate in their constituency. The state list of a party is elected with the state vote that is decisive for the allocation of seats in the state parliament.

Parliament seats are calculated using the Hare-Niemeyer method.

Parties

The following parties were represented in the previous Landtag of Hesse:

NameIdeologyLeader(s)2018 result
Votes (%)Seats
CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands
Christian democracy Boris Rhein 27.0%
40 / 137
Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
Green politics Tarek Al-Wazir 19.8%
29 / 137
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands
Social democracy Nancy Faeser 19.8%
29 / 137
AfD Alternative for Germany
Alternative für Deutschland
German nationalism
Right-wing populism
Robert Lambrou 13.1%
19 / 137
FDP Free Democratic Party
Freie Demokratische Partei
Classical liberalism Stefan Naas 7.5%
11 / 137
Linke The Left
Die Linke
Democratic socialism Elisabeth Kula
Jan Schalauske
6.3%
9 / 137

Opinion polling

Graphical summary

Opinion polls Hesse 2023.svg
Local regression of polls conducted

Party polling

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
CDU Grüne SPD AfD FDP Linke FW OthersLead
2023 state election 8 Oct 202334.614.815.118.45.03.13.55.516.1
Wahlkreisprognose 3–6 Oct 202394934.516.515.515.54.92.54.56.118.0
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 4–5 Oct 20231,00032171716534615
Wahlkreisprognose 30 Sep3 Oct 20231,0023316.516165.534.55.516.5
INSA 25 Sep2 Oct 20231,00031161616545715
Civey 24 Sep1 Oct 20232,90031181615641013
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 25–28 Sep 20231,04132171716534615
Infratest dimap 25–27 Sep 20231,51531171615644714
Wahlkreisprognose 22–26 Sep 20231,00030.5181617.552.546.512.5
Civey 7–14 Sep 20233,0013119191463812
Wahlkreisprognose 9–13 Sep 20231,20030172017.55244.510
INSA 4–11 Sep 20231,0002919201563449
Infratest dimap 5–9 Sep 20231,17031171817533613
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 4–7 Sep 20231,1073019191663711
Civey 24–31 Aug 20233,002292018166389
Wahlkreisprognose 25–29 Aug 20231,000291620185.524.559
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 21–23 Aug 20231,0053118201563711
Civey 9–16 Aug 20232,810291920156389
Wahlkreisprognose 18–23 Jul 20231,01525.5162020525.565.5
Wahlkreisprognose 23 Jun1 Jul 20231,4002618201952.53.566
INSA 5–12 Jun 20231,0002918221374347
Wahlkreisprognose 17–22 May 20231,002291623.5137236.55.5
INSA 17–24 Apr 20231,0003020211274339
Wahlkreisprognose 5–14 Apr 20231,39828182412.57235.54
Infratest dimap 7–11 Mar 20231,1773222201153710
Wahlkreisprognose 3–7 Mar 20231,0032921241161.534.55
Wahlkreisprognose 3–6 Feb 20231,521262025127.51.52.55.51
Wahlkreisprognose 23–27 Dec 20221,1502819251271.52.553
Wahlkreisprognose 25–27 Nov 20221,1003019.522126.52358
Wahlkreisprognose 24–28 Oct 20221,08228.5211813.573367.5
Infratest dimap 12–15 Oct 20221,161272222126385
Wahlkreisprognose 25–29 Sep 20221,00030.5211514.574359.5
Wahlkreisprognose 25–30 Aug 20221,01029.52615.5973.53.563.5
Wahlkreisprognose 7–12 Jul 20221,04329.526.52076.52.53.54.53
Wahlkreisprognose 12–18 Jun 20221,200322718763255
Wahlkreisprognose 29 Apr–4 May 20221,0232824.521783.5263.5
INSA 4–11 Apr 20221,000241924108537Tie
Wahlkreisprognose 3–10 Mar 20221,4002524247842.55.51
Infratest dimap 28 Feb–2 Mar 20221,16927202479583
Wahlkreisprognose 21–28 Jan 20221,102251926986341
Wahlkreisprognose 26 Nov–2 Dec 20211,00021.518.524.5913535.53
INSA 11–19 Oct 20211,25320202611115346
2021 federal election 26 Sep 202122.815.827.68.812.84.31.76.04.8
Wahlkreisprognose 5–11 May 202121.527169.512555.5
Infratest dimap 18–23 Feb 20211,0013221171076711
Wahlkreisprognose 7–14 Dec 20203221.518.51266410.5
Infratest dimap 1–7 Dec 20201,004342219875512
INSA 22–29 Oct 20201,0183019181169711
Wahlkreisprognose 5–12 Sep 202031.52216.513589.5
Wahlkreisprognose 10–16 July 20203021.520.512578.5
Wahlkreisprognose 20–25 May 2020362020.595515.5
Infratest dimap 12–13 May 20201,0053620181074516
Wahlkreisprognose 6–14 Apr 202032222186.5510
Infratest dimap 7–13 Feb 20201,000262516127861
INSA 4–16 Dec 20192,0002623161389323
2019 EP election 26 May 201925.823.418.49.96.44.41.710.02.4
Infratest dimap 16–24 Apr 20191,001272119139656
2018 state election 28 Oct 201827.019.819.813.17.56.33.03.67.2

Minister-president polling

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Boris Rhein (Martin Rulsch) 2013-02-26 2.jpg 2016-02-04 Tarek Al-Wazir - MdL Hessen - 3647-2.jpg 2023-02-12 BMW IBU World Championships Biathlon Oberhof 2023 - Men 12.5 km Pursuit by Sandro Halank-004.jpg MJK 43662 Robert Lambrou (Hessischer Landtag 2019).jpg None/
Unsure
Lead
Rhein
CDU
Al-Wazir
Grüne
Faeser
SPD
Lambrou
AfD
Infratest dimap 8 Oct 20233823152415
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 50302019
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 61211840
Wahlkreisprognose 3–6 Oct 2023949381714141721
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 4–5 Oct 20231,00044332311
55242131
Wahlkreisprognose 30 Sep3 Oct 20231,002351711122518
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 25–28 Sep 20231,04144312513
55212434
Infratest dimap 25–27 Sep 20231,5153519143216
Wahlkreisprognose 22–26 Sep 20231,000331813112515
Wahlkreisprognose 9–13 Sep 20231,200311616102715
40243616
Infratest dimap 5–9 Sep 20231,1703321172912
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 4–7 Sep 20231,10742312711
50262424
Wahlkreisprognose 25–29 Aug 20231,00030152112229
3227415
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 21–23 Aug 20231,00544312513
50282222
Wahlkreisprognose 18–23 Jul 20231,0152815207308
3128413
Wahlkreisprognose 23 Jun1 Jul 20231,4003017203310
Wahlkreisprognose 17–22 May 20231,0023719232114
Wahlkreisprognose 5–14 Apr 20231,3983423241910
Infratest dimap 7–11 Mar 20231,177322317289
Wahlkreisprognose 3–7 Mar 20231,003342325189
Wahlkreisprognose 3–6 Feb 20231,521322027215
Wahlkreisprognose 23–27 Dec 20221,150322025237
Wahlkreisprognose 25–27 Nov 20221,1003615262310
Wahlkreisprognose 24–28 Oct 20221,0823719242013
Infratest dimap 12–15 Oct 20221,161302117329
Wahlkreisprognose 25–29 Sep 20221,4003919192320
Wahlkreisprognose 25–30 Aug 20221,0103624202012
Wahlkreisprognose 7–12 Jul 20221,0433525231710
Wahlkreisprognose 10–17 Jun 20221,1234130171211
Wahlkreisprognose 29 Apr4 May 20221,023302823192
Wahlkreisprognose 3–10 Mar 20221,400262822242
Infratest dimap 28 Feb2 Mar 20221,169262320313

Election result

Results of the election by municipality Municipalities in Hesse 2023 Results.svg
Results of the election by municipality
Summary of the 8 October 2023 election results for the Landtag of Hesse [5]
Hesse Parlamento 2023.svg
PartyConstituency [lower-alpha 1] Party list [lower-alpha 2] Total
seats
+/-
Votes %SeatsVotes %+/-Seats
Christian Democratic Union (CDU)997,87035.652972,87634.6Increase2.svg 7.6052Increase2.svg 12
Alternative for Germany (AfD)490,89417.50518,76318.4Increase2.svg 5.32828Increase2.svg 9
Social Democratic Party (SPD)512,34918.30424,58715.1Decrease2.svg 4.72323Decrease2.svg 6
Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE)397,68014.23416,03514.8Decrease2.svg 5.01922Decrease2.svg 7
Free Democratic Party (FDP)137,3184.90141,6445.0Decrease2.svg 2.588Decrease2.svg 3
Free Voters (FW)131,1084.7098,2833.5Increase2.svg 0.500Steady2.svg 0
The Left (DIE LINKE)90,5203.2086,8423.1Decrease2.svg 3.200Decrease2.svg 9
Human Environment Animal Protection Party (Tierschutz)5,1810.2043,3411.5Increase2.svg 0.500Steady2.svg 0
Volt Germany (Volt)13,7290.5027,6121.0New00New
Die PARTEI 18,5950.7023,6780.8Increase2.svg 0.200Steady2.svg 0
Grassroots Democratic Party (dieBasis)4,2850.2013,7070.5New00New
V-Partei3 1550.009,4720.3Increase2.svg 0.200Steady2.svg 0
Pirate Party Germany (Piraten)1,3480.008,6180.3Decrease2.svg 0.100Steady2.svg 0
Climate List Germany (Klimaliste)9510.006,2120.2New00New
Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP)5,9060.2Decrease2.svg 0.100Steady2.svg 0
Action Citizens for Justice (ABG)3240.004,4420.2New00New
Party of Humanists (PdH)8780.004,2620.2Increase2.svg 0.100Steady2.svg 0
German Communist Party (DKP)7760.002,2290.1New00New
Anarchist Pogo Party of Germany (APPD)910.001,9290.1New00New
Party for Biomedical Rejuvenation Research (Verjüngungsforschung)1,5060.1Steady2.svg 0.000Steady2.svg 0
The New Centre (DIE NEUE MITTE)1,3690.0New00New
Non-party Resident Representatives (NEV)8800.0000Steady2.svg 0
Alliance C – Christians for Germany (Bündnis C)7560.0000New
Practitioner Party (PP)4210.0000New
Bürgerliste Weiterdenken (WDMR)1870.0000New
Solidarity, Justice, Change (SGV)1620.0000New
Solibew1240.0000New
MERA25 990.0000New
Total2,806,681100.00552,813,313100.0078133Decrease2.svg 4
Invalid51,6321.845,0001.6
Turnout2,858,31366.02,858,31366.0Decrease2.svg 1.3
Registered voters4,332,2354,332,235
  1. Erststimmen
  2. Zweitstimmen

State government formation

Immediately after the elections, Prime Minister Boris Rhein announced that he wanted to hold exploratory talks with his previous coalition partner, the Greens, as well as with the SPD and FDP. [6] According to Rhein, five rounds of talks took place between the CDU and the Greens as well as with the SPD in the following weeks.

On November 10, 2023, Rhein announced his intention to end the previous coalition between the CDU and the Greens and instead govern with the SPD. The CDU state executive committee and the parliamentary group in the state parliament had previously unanimously accepted the decision for negotiations. Rhein stated that the decision had "not been taken lightly" and had been "seriously considered". [7]

The committees of the SPD Hesse also voted unanimously to start coalition negotiations with the CDU. Previously, Federal Minister of the Interior Nancy Faeser, the SPD's top candidate in the state elections in Hesse, had rejected a move to Wiesbaden. [8]

The new Hessian state parliament was constituted on 18 January 2024. [7]

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References

  1. "Landtagswahl findet am 8. Oktober 2023 statt". hessen.de (in German). 17 January 2023. Retrieved 2023-01-31.
  2. "Germany: Scholz coalition battered in Bavaria, Hesse polls". Deutsche Welle . 9 October 2023.
  3. "German conservative opposition wins 2 state elections, with far-right making gains". Associated Press . 8 October 2023.
  4. "German voters move further to the right". Deutsche Welle . 9 October 2023.
  5. "Hessen Wahlergebnis". Hessen Wahlergebnis (in German). Retrieved 2023-11-06.
  6. Rhein will mit SPD, Grünen und FDP sondieren
  7. 1 2 Bruch mit Grünen – Rhein strebt in Hessen Koalition mit SPD an. In: spiegel.de, 11 November 2023 (retrieved 11 November 2023).
  8. Nail Akkoyun, Jens Kiffmeier: Polit-Beben in Hessen: SPD einstimmig für Koalitionsverhandlungen mit der CDU. In: fr.de, 11 November 2023 (retrieved 11 November 2023).