2018 Hessian state election

Last updated

2018 Hesse state election
Flag of Hesse.svg
  2013 28 October 2018 2023  

All 137 seats of the Landtag of Hesse, including 27 overhang and leveling seats
69 seats needed for a majority
Turnout2,881,261 (67.3%)
Decrease2.svg 5.9%
 First partySecond partyThird party
  MJK00898 Volker Bouffier.jpg 2016-02-04 Tarek Al-Wazir - MdL Hessen - 3647-2.jpg
2016-02-04 Priska Hinz - Staatsministerin im Umweltministerium Hessen - 3535-2.jpg
MJK00857 Thorsten Schafer-Gumbel.jpg
Leader Volker Bouffier Tarek Al-Wazir
Priska Hinz
Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel
Party CDU Greens SPD
Last election47 seats, 38.3%14 seats, 11.1%37 seats, 30.7%
Seats won402929
Seat changeDecrease2.svg 7Increase2.svg 15Decrease2.svg 8
Popular vote776,910570,512570,446
Percentage27.0%19.8%19.8%
SwingDecrease2.svg 11.3%Increase2.svg 8.7%Decrease2.svg 10.9%

 Fourth partyFifth partySixth party
  MJK 43801 Rainer Rahn (Hessischer Landtag 2019).jpg Rene Rock (MdL Hessen 2014-01-18).jpg 2018-06-09 Bundesparteitag Die Linke 2018 in Leipzig by Sandro Halank-132.jpg
MJK 44063 Jan Schalauske (Hessischer Landtag 2019).jpg
Leader Rainer Rahn René Rock Janine Wissler
Jan Schalauske
Party AfD FDP Left
Last election0 seats, 4.1%6 seats, 5.0%6 seats, 5.2%
Seats won19119
Seat changeIncrease2.svg 19Increase2.svg 5Increase2.svg 3
Popular vote378,692215,946181,263
Percentage13.1%7.5%6.3%
SwingIncrease2.svg 9.0%Increase2.svg 2.5%Increase2.svg 1.1%

Hesse State Election 2018.svg
Map of the election, showing the winner of each single-member district and the distribution of list seats.

Government before election

Second Bouffier cabinet
CDUGreen

Government after election

Third Bouffier cabinet
CDUGreen

The 2018 Hessian state election was held on 28 October 2018 to elect the members of the Landtag of Hesse. [1] The outgoing government was a coalition of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and The Greens led by Minister-President Volker Bouffier.

Contents

The election was held two weeks after the 2018 Bavarian state election, which saw the CSU and Social Democratic Party (SPD) suffer major losses, with third parties making major gains. The result in Hesse was largely similar, with the CDU and SPD losing more than 20 percentage points between them, while the Greens and Alternative for Germany (AfD) gained approximately 9 points each. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) and The Left also made gains. Compared to the 2013 election turnout fell by 5.9 points to 67.3%. [2]

Despite suffering the worst losses of any party, the CDU remained the largest party by a comfortable margin. The Greens and SPD each won 29 seats and 19.8% of the vote; the Greens moved into second place by an extremely narrow margin of just 66 votes. The AfD, which failed to win seats in 2013, won 13.1% and 19 seats. By entering the Landtag in Hesse, it became the only third party present in all sixteen state parliaments.

The election was influenced by the poor condition of the federal government in the aftermath of the "asylum quarrel" in June/July and the crisis around Hans-Georg Maaßen in September. [3] [4] One day after the election, federal Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that she would not seek re-election as CDU leader at the party convention in early December, nor seek her party's nomination as Chancellor candidate for the next federal election. [5]

The incumbent CDU–Green government was returned with a slim majority of one seat, and was subsequently renewed.

Background

The incumbent Hesse government coalition consisted of CDU and the Greens.

The regional election for Hesse, along with the Bavarian state election held just two weeks before, was widely seen as a test for the ruling CDU/CSU and SPD coalition of Angela Merkel's fourth federal cabinet. [6]

Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the previous Landtag of Hesse.

NameIdeologyLeader(s)2013 result
Votes (%)Seats
CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands
Christian democracy Volker Bouffier 38.3%
47 / 110
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands
Social democracy Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel 30.7%
37 / 110
Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
Green politics Tarek Al-Wazir
Priska Hinz
11.1%
14 / 110
Linke The Left
Die Linke
Democratic socialism Janine Wissler
Jan Schalauske
5.2%
6 / 110
FDP Free Democratic Party
Freie Demokratische Partei
Classical liberalism René Rock 5.0%
6 / 110

Opinion polling

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
CDU SPD Grüne Linke FDP AfD OthersLead
2018 state election 28 Oct 201827.019.819.86.37.513.16.57.2
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 24–25 Oct 20181,025282020881248
Civey 18–24 Oct 20184,46727.022.018.57.58.013.04.05.0
INSA 18–22 Oct 20181,004262121871345
Infratest dimap 16–17 Oct 20181,002262120891245
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 15–17 Oct 20181,035262022881244
Civey 2–12 Oct 20184,54928.524.918.27.55.611.83.53.6
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 24 Sep–1 Oct 20181,038292318861336
Civey 19–26 Sep 20184,50928.623.015.88.87.612.43.85.6
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 17–19 Sep 20181,039322515861137
Infratest dimap 13–19 Sep 20181,000282317871435
INSA 3–6 Sep 20181,039292414871445
Civey 14–30 Aug 20184,53231.123.913.47.97.112.73.97.2
Infratest dimap 14–19 Jun 20181,003312214771549
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 4–11 Jun 20181,049312513881146
INSA 9–16 May 20181,067332413871149
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 19–21 Mar 20181,011312613871055
Allensbach 19 Dec 2017–31 Jan 20187603126127911?5
Forsa 8–22 Feb 20181,0353323147810510
Infratest dimap 9–16 Jan 20181,006312513881236
2017 federal election 24 Sep 201730.923.59.78.111.511.94.47.3
Infratest dimap 5–10 Jan 20171,003322414861428
dimap 15–22 Aug 20161,00036271364959
Forsa 1–8 Apr 20161,004332711671066
Infratest dimap 12–16 Jan 20161,000342611851248
Forsa 17–26 Aug 20151,009382813554714
dimap 6–13 Jul 20151,003412714662414
dimap 10–14 Dec 20141,000382716725511
2014 European election 25 May 201430.630.312.95.64.19.17.30.3
Forsa 18–27 Feb 20141,002392712755512
2013 federal election 22 Sep 201339.228.89.96.05.65.64.910.4
2013 state election 22 Sep 201338.330.711.15.25.04.15.67.6


Election result

Summary of the 28 October 2018 election results for the Landtag of Hesse
PartyConstituencyParty listTotal
seats
+/-
Votes %SeatsVotes %+/-Seats
Christian Democratic Union (CDU)843,06829.3440776,91026.96Decrease2.svg 11.35040Decrease2.svg 7
Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE)517,90418.035570,51219.80Increase2.svg 8.662429Increase2.svg 15
Social Democratic Party (SPD)670,63723.3410570,44619.80Decrease2.svg 10.931929Decrease2.svg 8
Alternative for Germany (AfD)362,21012.610378,69213.14Increase2.svg 9.091919Increase2.svg 19
Free Democratic Party (FDP)205,3847.150215,9467.49Increase2.svg 2.471111Increase2.svg 5
The Left (DIE LINKE)164,5355.730181,3326.29Increase2.svg 1.1499Increase2.svg 3
Free Voters (FW)88,1223.07085,4652.97Increase2.svg 1.7400Steady2.svg 0
Human Environment Animal Protection Party (Tierschutz)4710.02028,0950.98New00New
Die PARTEI 12,0070.42018,3340.64Increase2.svg 0.1500Steady2.svg 0
Pirate Party (PIRATEN)3,8180.13011,6170.40Decrease2.svg 1.5200Steady2.svg 0
Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP)3,2320.1107,5390.26Increase2.svg 0.1300Steady2.svg 0
National Democratic Party (NPD)6,1730.21Decrease2.svg 0.8500Steady2.svg 0
Grey Panthers (AGP)4,8700.17Increase2.svg 0.0900Steady2.svg 0
Alliance C – Christians for Germany (Bündnis C)3,7890.13New00New
Party for Health Research (Gesundheitsforschung)3,5720.12New00New
V-Partei³ 1450.0103,5530.12New00New
Basic Income Alliance (BGE)3,0310.11New00New
Alliance of German Democrats (AD-Demokraten)2,9710.10New00New
Party of Humanists (Die Humanisten)2,6460.09New00New
The Violets (DIE VIOLETTEN)3730.0102,4030.08New00New
Human World (MENSCHLICHE WELT)740.0001,6000.06New00New
Liberal Conservative Reformers (LKR)1390.0001,3400.05New00New
Civil Rights Movement Soliarity (BüSo)4250.01Decrease2.svg 0.0300Steady2.svg 0
Non-partisan Residents (NEV)6430.0200New
Democracy in Motion (DiB)1680.0100New
Anarchist Pogo Party of Germany (APPD)940.0000Steady2.svg 0
Ecological Left (ÖkoLinX)460.0000Steady2.svg 0
Total2,873,070100.00552,881,261100.0082137Increase2.svg 27
Invalid69,7762.3761,5852.09
Turnout2,942,84667.302,942,84667.30Decrease2.svg 5.93
Registered voters4,372,7884,372,788

State government formation

Despite heavy losses inflicted on the party, the CDU returned to government after negotiating a coalition agreement with the Greens, the second consecutive such arrangement between the two parties. The two parties formed the narrowest possible majority in the Landtag, occupying 69 seats. As part of the agreement, the Greens increased their representation in the Cabinet, holding four of the eleven portfolios. [7] The returned coalition only became possible after a recount of votes took place several weeks after the election, due to computer glitches which affected some election night results. Following the recount, the state election commissioner announced that compared to the provisional figures, there were no significant shifts in the percentages, and the distribution of seats in the state parliament had not changed. [8]

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References

  1. "Wahltermine in Deutschland (2021, 2022 usw.)".
  2. https://statistik-hessen.de/l_2018/html/landesergebnis Archived 2019-06-18 at the Wayback Machine Official result
  3. Was die Hessenwahl für die Bundespolitik bedeutet, Frankfurter Allgemeine, 28 October 2018
  4. Schicksalswahl für Merkels Koalition, Frankfurter Allgemeine, 26 October 2018
  5. Angela Merkel bietet Verzicht auf Parteivorsitz an, Die Zeit, 29 October 2018
  6. "Hesse election: Merkel facing double trouble in German vote". BBC News. 26 October 2018. Retrieved 28 October 2018.
  7. "How the unlikely team of CDU and Greens have reunited in Hesse". The Local. 20 December 2018.
  8. "Merkel's CDU and Greens can breathe sigh of relief after Hesse vote recount". The Local. 16 November 2018.

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