2016 Saxony-Anhalt state election

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2016 Saxony-Anhalt state election
Flag of Saxony-Anhalt (state).svg
  2011 13 March 2016 2021  

All 87 seats in the Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt
44 seats needed for a majority
Turnout1,122,877 (61.1%)
Increase2.svg 9.9%
 First partySecond partyThird party
  Reiner Haseloff CDU Parteitag 2014 by Olaf Kosinsky-5.jpg Andre Poggenburg in Hannover 2015-11 (crop).jpg Wulf Gallert 2012 (portrait).jpg
Leader Reiner Haseloff André Poggenburg Wulf Gallert
Party CDU AfD Left
Last election41 seats, 32.5%Did not exist29 seats, 23.7%
Seats won302516
Seat changeDecrease2.svg 11Increase2.svg 25Decrease2.svg 13
Popular vote334,139272,496183,290
Percentage29.8%24.3%16.3%
SwingDecrease2.svg 2.7%New partyDecrease2.svg 7.4%

 Fourth partyFifth party
  Katrin Budde Juso Bundeskongress 2012.jpg Claudia Dalbert 2012 (portrait).jpg
Leader Katrin Budde Claudia Dalbert
Party SPD Greens
Last election26 seats, 21.5%9 seats, 7.1%
Seats won115
Seat changeDecrease2.svg 15Decrease2.svg 4
Popular vote119,36858,209
Percentage10.6%5.2%
SwingDecrease2.svg 10.9%Decrease2.svg 1.9%

2016 Saxony-Anhalt state election.svg
Results for the single-member constituencies

Minister-President before election

Reiner Haseloff
CDU

Elected Minister-President

Reiner Haseloff
CDU

The 2016 Saxony-Anhalt state election was held on 13 March 2016 to elect the members of the 7th Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt. The incumbent grand coalition of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Social Democratic Party (SPD) led by Minister-President Reiner Haseloff lost its majority. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) debuted at 24.3%, with every other parliamentary party recording losses, particularly the SPD and The Left.

Contents

The CDU subsequently formed a coalition with the SPD and The Greens, which was dubbed the "Kenya coalition". [1] Haseloff was re-elected as Minister-President on 25 April. [2]

Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the 6th Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt.

NameIdeologyLeader(s)2011 result
Votes (%)Seats
CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands
Christian democracy Reiner Haseloff 32.5%
41 / 105
Linke The Left
Die Linke
Democratic socialism Wulf Gallert 23.7%
29 / 105
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands
Social democracy Katrin Budde 21.5%
26 / 105
Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
Green politics Claudia Dalbert 7.1%
9 / 105

Opinion polling

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
CDU Linke SPD Grüne FDP AfD OthersLead
2016 state election 13 Mar 201629.816.310.65.24.924.39.05.5
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 7–10 Mar 20161,09632211454.5185.511
Forsa 2–8 Mar 20161,0013020175518510
INSA 1–5 Mar 20161,000292015.564196.59
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 29 Feb–3 Mar 20161,0273220155417712
Infratest dimap 29 Feb–2 Mar 20161,00131.021.015.05.54.519.04.010.0
uniQma 19–29 Feb 20161,0083019185417711
INSA 25–27 Feb 20161,00129.5201755176.59.5
INSA 19–20 Feb 20161,000302116541779
Infratest dimap 10–13 Feb 20161,0013220185417412
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 11–13 Jan 20161,0033319195315514
INSA 25 Nov–3 Dec 20151,004352315.56313.5412
Infratest dimap 8–12 Sep 20151,0013426217578
GMS 19–26 Jun 20151,008352121646714
Infratest dimap 9–14 Aug 20131,00039222172917
2011 state election 20 Mar 201132.523.721.57.13.811.38.8

Election result

The actual result was significantly different from what prior opinion polling indicated. In comparison to the late-campaign polls, the AfD scored approximately 6% higher, while The Left and SPD each scored around 5% lower. The Left were expected to suffer only small losses, but instead achieved their worst result since 1990. This made AfD the clear second-place finisher, in contrast to polling which predicted The Left would remain the second largest party. The SPD, who were already projected to achieve their worst ever result in the state, suffered a catastrophic result, losing over half their voteshare and barely reaching 10%. The Greens narrowly returned to the Landtag, while the FDP fell barely 1,600 votes short of the 5% threshold. Minor parties performed better than expected, with 9% of votes going to them, compared to the 5–6% predicted.

Summary of the 13 March 2016 election results for the Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt
Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt 2016.svg
PartyVotes %+/-Seats+/-Seats %
Christian Democratic Union (CDU)334,13929.8Decrease2.svg2.730Decrease2.svg1134.5
Alternative for Germany (AfD)272,49624.3New25New28.7
The Left (Linke)183,29016.3Decrease2.svg7.416Decrease2.svg1318.4
Social Democratic Party (SPD)119,36810.6Decrease2.svg10.911Decrease2.svg1512.6
Alliance 90/The Greens (Grüne)58,2095.2Decrease2.svg1.95Decrease2.svg45.7
Free Democratic Party (FDP)54,5654.9Increase2.svg1.10±00
Free Voters (FW)24,2692.2Decrease2.svg0.60±00
National Democratic Party (NPD)21,2301.9Decrease2.svg2.70±00
Human Environment Animal Protection Party (Tierschutz)16,6111.5Decrease2.svg0.10±00
Animal Protection Alliance11,6531.0New0New0
Others27,0472.40±00
Total1,122,877100.087Decrease2.svg18
Voter turnout61.1Increase2.svg9.9
Popular Vote
CDU
29.76%
AfD
24.27%
DIE LINKE
16.32%
SPD
10.63%
GRÜNE
5.18%
FDP
4.86%
Other
8.98%
Landtag seats
CDU
34.48%
AfD
28.74%
DIE LINKE
18.39%
SPD
12.64%
GRÜNE
5.75%

Results by District

Salzwedel
PartyCandidateConstituencyRegional
Votes%±%Votes%±%
' Christian Democratic Union (CDU)'Carsten Borchert6,88233.6Increase2.svg2.86,37931.0Increase2.svg2.3
Alternative for Germany (AfD) Stephan Botkus4,47121.9new4,48821.8new
The Left (Linke) Andreas Höppner3,59117.6Decrease2.svg11.93,59217.5Decrease2.svg9.1
Social Democratic Party (SPD) Jana Schweizer3,15615.4Decrease2.svg5.52,67413.0Decrease2.svg9.1
Alliance 90/The Greens (Grüne) Christian Franke1,1655.7Decrease2.svg1.61,3206.4Decrease2.svg2.2
Independent Sabine Danicke1,1895.8new
Free Democratic Party (FDP) 7483.6Decrease2.svg1.8
National Democratic Party (NPD) 2841.4Decrease2.svg2.4
Human Environment Animal Protection Party (Tierschutz) 2591.3Decrease2.svg0.1
Free Voters (FW) 1930.9Decrease2.svg1.0
Gardelegen-Klötze
PartyCandidateConstituencyRegional
Votes%±%Votes%±%
' Christian Democratic Union (CDU)'Uwe Harms6,35330.5Decrease2.svg3.46,83732.6Increase2.svg0.3
Alternative for Germany (AfD) Thomas Korell5,01424.0new4,59121.9new
Social Democratic Party (SPD) Jürgen Barth3,77218.1Decrease2.svg4.72,75213.1Decrease2.svg9.9
The Left (Linke) Kay Grahmann3,35418.1Decrease2.svg4.73,30215.7Decrease2.svg8.6
Alliance 90/The Greens (Grüne) Mirko Wolff1,2195.8Increase2.svg0.19774.7Decrease2.svg1.5
Free Democratic Party (FDP) Norbert Ungar1,1445.5Decrease2.svg1.19744.6Steady2.svg0
National Democratic Party (NPD) 3321.6Decrease2.svg3.3
Human Environment Animal Protection Party (Tierschutz) 2861.4Increase2.svg0.2
Free Voters (FW) 2601.2Decrease2.svg0.3
Havelberg-Osterburg
PartyCandidateConstituencyRegional
Votes%±%Votes%±%
' Christian Democratic Union (CDU)'Christ Schulenburg8,65640.1Decrease2.svg1.77,56233.2Decrease2.svg1.7
The Left (Linke) Jenny Schulz5,89227.3Decrease2.svg1.64,12318.1Decrease2.svg9.4
Alternative for Germany (AfD) 5,52424.2new
Social Democratic Party (SPD) Ralf Bergmann3,53516.4Decrease2.svg1.52,46810.8Decrease2.svg9.9
Free Democratic Party (FDP) Klaus-Dieter Liebsch2,18410.1Increase2.svg7.68863.9Increase2.svg1.2
Alliance 90/The Greens (Grüne) David Elsholz1,3356.2Increase2.svg1.08693.8Decrease2.svg1.8
Free Voters (FW) 3021.3Decrease2.svg0.3
National Democratic Party (NPD) 2441.1Decrease2.svg3.1
Human Environment Animal Protection Party (Tierschutz) 1960.9Decrease2.svg0.4
Stendal
PartyCandidateConstituencyRegional
Votes%±%Votes%±%
' Christian Democratic Union (CDU)'Hardy Peter Güssau6,64032.4Decrease2.svg4.56,72330.8Decrease2.svg3.1
Alternative for Germany (AfD) 5,45925.0new
The Left (Linke) Mario Blasche5,44626.6Decrease2.svg0.84,12318.1Decrease2.svg9.4
Social Democratic Party (SPD) Juliane Kleemann4,17420.4Decrease2.svg5.02,58011.8Decrease2.svg10.3
Free Democratic Party (FDP) Ralf Berlin2,98114.5Increase2.svg10.78863.9Increase2.svg1.2
Alliance 90/The Greens (Grüne) Dorothea Frederking12686.2Decrease2.svg0.39414.3Decrease2.svg1.8
Human Environment Animal Protection Party (Tierschutz) 2551.2Decrease2.svg0.6
National Democratic Party (NPD) 2291.0Decrease2.svg4.1
Free Voters (FW) 2251.0Decrease2.svg0.1

Outcome

The CDU won 30% of the votes and remained the largest party, but faced a strong challenge from the AfD. [3] [4] After the election, Haseloff stated: "The rise which AfD saw in the polls has the name of a city: it's Cologne," referring to the New Year's Eve sexual assaults in Germany. [5] He claimed that "as the Christian Democratic Union here in Saxony-Anhalt, we have done nothing wrong." [5]

According to observers, the only realistic possibility for a coalition government with a majority was one consisting of the CDU, SPD and the Greens, which held a two-seat majority. [6] Other potential majority coalitions were considered unlikely or politically impossible, such as CDU–Left or CDU–AfD. For a broad-based majority, the coalition would have needed to include both the CDU and The Left, which was infeasible.

Another possible option was a minority government "tolerated" by another party or parties which were themselves not part of the government. In this situation, these parties would abstain from the vote for Minister-President, allowing the minority government to be formed with a simple plurality, rather than the typical absolute majority. Such a situation had existed in Saxony-Anhalt between 1994 and 2002, with an SPD minority government supported by The Left. The most likely arrangement in 2016 would have been a minority government of the CDU and SPD with the tolerance of the Greens and/or The Left. Similarly, a CDU–Green coalition could have been tolerated by the SPD and/or The Left. An SPD–Left–Green coalition could be tolerated by the CDU, although this possibility was highly unlikely. [7]

Ultimately, the CDU, SPD, and Greens agreed to form a coalition government together, to the exclusion of The Left. This was dubbed the "Kenya coalition", a reference to the colours of the parties and those of the flag of Kenya. This was the first such coalition formed in Germany. On 25 April 2016, Haseloff was re-elected as Minister-President by the Landtag on the second ballot, in which he won one vote more than the necessary majority. [2]

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References

  1. "Sealed first "Kenya" coalition in Saxony-Anhalt: Government". Archy World News. Archived from the original on 11 August 2016. Retrieved 19 April 2016.
  2. 1 2 Haseloff erst im zweiten Anlauf wiedergewählt, Frankfurter Allgemeine, in German
  3. Janosch Delcker (March 13, 2016), Angela Merkel’s conservatives lose two major regional elections Politico Europe .
  4. Philip Oltermann (March 14, 2016), Germany 'won't change policy' after gains for anti-refugee AfD party The Guardian .
  5. 1 2 "Haseloff (CDU): "als christlich-demokratische Union hier in Sachsen-Anhalt nichts falsch gemacht"" [Haseloff (CDU): "As a Christian Democratic Union here in Saxony-Anhalt done nothing wrong"]. Phoenix (in German). Retrieved 14 March 2016.
  6. "Regierungsbildung Sachsen-Anhalt: Haseloff: "Wir wissen, worauf es ankommt"".
  7. "German state elections: Success for right-wing AfD, losses for Merkel's CDU". 14 March 2016.[ permanent dead link ]