2024 Thuringian state election

2024 Thuringian state election

←  2019 1 September 2024
All 88 seats in the Landtag of Thuringia 45 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	1,218,190 (73.6%) 8.7 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader Björn Höcke Mario Voigt Katja Wolf Party AfD CDU BSW Last election 22 seats, 23.4% 21 seats, 21.7% Did not exist Seats won 32 23 15 Seat change 10 2 15 Popular vote 396,704 285,141 190,448 Percentage 32.8% 23.6% 15.8% Swing 9.4 pp 1.9 pp New party   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Bodo Ramelow Georg Maier Madeleine Henfling Party Left SPD Greens Last election 29 seats, 31.0% 8 seats, 8.2% 5 seats, 5.2% Seats won 12 6 0 Seat change 17 2 5 Popular vote 157,641 73,088 38,289 Percentage 13.1% 6.1% 3.2% Swing 17.9 pp 2.1 pp 2.0 pp   Seventh party   Leader Thomas Kemmerich Party FDP Last election 5 seats, 5.0% Seats won 0 Seat change 5 Popular vote 13,582 Percentage 1.1% Swing 3.9 pp
Results for the single-member constituencies
Government before election Second Ramelow cabinet Left–SPD–Green Government after election TBD

The 2024 Thuringian state election was held on 1 September 2024 to elect the members of the 8th Landtag of Thuringia. ^[1] It was held on the same day as the 2024 Saxony state election. ^[2]

The outgoing government was a minority government consisting of The Left, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), and The Greens, led by Minister-President Bodo Ramelow of The Left.

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) became the largest party with 33% of the vote, its best ever performance and the first time it placed first in a state election in Germany. The incumbent governing coalition suffered dramatic losses; the Left lost more than half its support and fell to fourth place on 13%, while the SPD recorded its worst result in any postwar state election. The Greens and the Free Democratic Party lost all of their seats. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) recorded small gains and came second with 24%. The newly-founded Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) debuted in third place at 16%. ^[3]

The AfD became the first far-right party in Germany since the Nazi Party to win a plurality of seats in a state election. ^{[4] [5] [6] [7] [8]}

Election date

According to § 18 of the Thuringian Electoral Law for the Landtag, ^[9] the Landtag election must take place on a Sunday or public holiday at the earliest 57 months after the beginning of the current parliamentary term on 5 February 2020 and at the latest 61 months after, i.e. at the earliest in August 2024 and at the latest December 2024. ^[10]

According to the Thuringian Constitution, an early election may be held if, at the request of one-third of its members, the Landtag votes with a two-thirds majority to dissolve itself. This may also occur if the Landtag does not vote confidence in a Minister-President within three weeks of a failed vote of confidence in the incumbent. The motion to dissolve the Landtag may only be voted on between eleven and thirty days after its submission. If passed, the election must then take place within 70 days.

Proposed early election

In the aftermath of the 2020 Thuringian government crisis, The Left, CDU, SPD, and Greens came to an agreement to dissolve the Landtag and schedule a new election for 25 April 2021. At the time the four parties held a combined 63 of the 90 seats, two more than the 61 votes required for a dissolution. ^[11] That January, the four parties agreed to postpone the election to 26 September 2021, the same date as the upcoming federal election. ^[12]

The vote to dissolve the Landtag was scheduled for 19 July 2021. However, the motion was withdrawn on 16 July after four CDU and two Left members informed party leaders they would vote against it, leaving it clearly short of the required majority. Left parliamentary leader Stefan Dittes announced there would not be another effort to dissolve the Landtag, and the red-red-green minority government continued for a full term. ^{[13] [14]}

Background

Previous election

Main article: 2019 Thuringian state election

In the previous state election held on 27 October 2019, The Left became the largest party for the first time in any German state, winning 31.0% of votes cast. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) made the largest gains, increasing its vote share by almost 13 percentage points and became the second largest party with 23.4%. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which had previously been the largest party in the Landtag, lost almost 12 points and fell to third place with 21.7%. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) placed fourth on 8.2%. The Greens narrowly retained their position in the legislature, winning 5.2% of votes. The Free Democratic (FDP) entered the Landtag for the first time since 2009, exceeding the 5% electoral threshold by just 73 votes. ^[15]

Incumbent Minister President Bodo Ramelow of The Left had led a coalition government of The Left, SPD, and Greens since 2014. The Left's gains were offset by losses for the SPD and Greens, and the coalition lost its majority.

Government crisis

Main article: 2020 Thuringian government crisis

The loss of a majority for the Ramelow's red-red-green coalition led to an unclear path to a new government. The state constitution provides that a Minister-President is elected with a plurality of votes if two rounds of balloting fails to produce a majority, allowing the coalition to potentially continue as a minority government. Unexpectedly, the FDP leader Thomas Kemmerich was elected as Minister-President on this third ballot, with 45 votes to Ramelow's 44. Kemmerich was elected with the support of the FDP, CDU, and controversially, the AfD. This was the first time AfD had been involved in the election of a head of state government in Germany. The apparent cooperation of the three parties was viewed by some as breaking the cordon sanitaire around AfD which had been in place since its formation, in which all other parties sought to deny AfD government or political influence, refusing to negotiate or work with them on any level. This sparked major controversy nationwide, with many politicians expressing their outrage, including federal Chancellor and former CDU leader Angela Merkel, who described it as "unforgivable" and condemned her party's involvement. ^{[16] [17]} Kemmerich announced his resignation on 6 February, just a day after taking office. He remained in office in an interim capacity. ^[18] In the re-ran vote a month later, Ramelow was re-elected Minister-President. ^[19]

Parties and lists

Party		2019 result	Con. candidates	List candidates	Lead candidate
	The Left (LINKE)	31.0%	44	50	Bodo Ramelow
	Alternative for Germany (AfD)	23.4%	42	44	Björn Höcke
	Christian Democratic Union (CDU)	21.7%	44	87	Mario Voigt
	Social Democratic Party (SPD)	8.2%	42	47	Georg Maier
	Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE)	5.2%	20	19	Madeleine Henfling
	Free Democratic Party (FDP)	5.0%	33	39	Thomas Kemmerich
	Action Party for Animal Welfare (Tierschutz hier!)	1.1%	–	3	Daniel Riedel
	Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP)	0.4%	3	13	Martin Truckenbrodt
	Pirate Party Germany (PIRATEN)	0.4%	1	9	Heidrun Jänchen
	Marxist–Leninist Party (MLPD)	0.3%	3	13	Tassilo Timm
	Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW)	–	6	32	Katja Wolf
	Free Voters (FW)	–	22	15	Andreas Hummel
	Values Union (WU)	–	4	28	Albert Weiler
	Alliance Germany (BD)	–	–	15	Steffi Brönner
	Family Party (FAMILIE)	–	–	13	Sven Seyfarth
Other		–	6	–

Campaign

Lead candidates

On 15 June 2020, the SPD elected Georg Maier as state chairman and lead candidate for the planned 2021 election. This came after previous leader Wolfgang Tiefensee resigned his position. ^[20]

In September 2020, former Federal Commissioner for the New States Christian Hirte was elected as state CDU chairman, succeeding Mike Mohring, who had resigned during the government crisis in February. ^[21] On 17 November, the state executive nominated parliamentary group leader Mario Voigt as their preferred lead candidate. ^[22]

After extended pressure from the federal FDP as well as other state branches, Thomas Kemmerich announced on 11 December that he was ineligible as his party's lead candidate in the planned 2021 election. ^[23]

Opinion polls

LOESS curve of the polling for the 2024 Thuringian State Election.

Party polling

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Linke	AfD	CDU	SPD	Grüne	FDP	BSW	Others	Lead
2024 state election	1 Sep 2024	–	13.1	32.8	23.6	6.1	3.2	1.1	15.8	4.3	9.2
Wahlkreisprognose	26–31 Aug 2024	900	14	31	22.5	5	2.5	–	17.5	7.5	8.5
Forsa	27–29 Aug 2024	1,005	14	30	22	7	4	–	17	6	8
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	26–29 Aug 2024	1,859	13	29	23	6	4	–	18	7	6
INSA	19–23 Aug 2024	1,000	14	30	21	6	3	3	20	3	9
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	19–22 Aug 2024	1,071	14	30	21	6	4	–	17	6	9
Infratest dimap	19–21 Aug 2024	1,551	13	30	23	7	3	–	17	7	7
Forsa	7–14 Aug 2024	1,011	13	30	21	7	4	–	18	7	9
INSA	5–12 Aug 2024	1,000	16	30	21	6	3	3	19	2	9
Wahlkreisprognose	4–11 Aug 2024	1.000	15.5	27.5	23	4.5	2.5	2.5	19	5.5	4.5
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	5–8 Aug 2024	1,015	15	30	21	7	3	–	19	5	9
INSA	17–24 Jun 2024	1,000	14	29	22	7	4	2	20	2	7
Infratest dimap	13–16 Jun 2024	1,172	11	28	23	7	4	–	21	6	5
European Parliament election	9 Jun 2024	–	5.7	30.7	23.2	8.2	4.2	2.0	15.0	11.0	7.5
INSA	22–29 Apr 2024	1,000	16	30	20	7	5	2	15	4	10
Infratest dimap	14–18 Mar 2024	1,182	16	29	20	9	5	–	15	6	9
INSA	11–18 Mar 2024	1,000	18	31	21	6	5	2	13	4	10
INSA	8–15 Jan 2024	1,000	15	31	20	6	5	3	17	3	11
Forsa	6–10 Jan 2024	1,253	17	36	20	9	5	3	4	6	16
Wahlkreisprognose	17–24 Dec 2023	987	20.5	27.5	12.5	6	2.5	3	22.5	5.5	5
			27	36.5	16	7	3	4	–	6.5	9.5
INSA	30 Oct – 7 Nov 2023	1,000	20	34	22	9	4	4	–	7	12
INSA	7–13 Sep 2023	1,000	22	32	21	10	6	4	–	5	10
INSA	3–10 Jul 2023	1,000	22	32	20	10	5	4	–	7	10
			18	22	16	9	5	3	25	2	3
Infratest dimap	28 Jun – 3 Jul 2023	1,193	20	34	21	10	5	4	–	6	13
Wahlkreisprognose	16–28 May 2023	904	25	30	17.5	10	4	6	–	7.5	5
INSA	17–24 Apr 2023	1,000	22	28	21	11	6	5	–	7	6
INSA	20–27 Jan 2023	1,000	25	26	22	10	6	5	–	6	1
Wahlkreisprognose	5–11 Dec 2022	1,016	27	30	15	10	5	6	–	7	3
INSA	1–8 Nov 2022	1,108	23	25	21	11	7	5	–	8	2
Wahlkreisprognose	25–31 Oct 2022	1,008	24	28	17.5	12	6	6	–	6.5	4
INSA	7–15 Sep 2022	1,081	23	26	20	11	8	5	–	7	3
Wahlkreisprognose	29 Aug–6 Sep 2022	1,000	22	28	20.5	11	5.5	5	–	8	6
Infratest dimap	28 Jul–2 Aug 2022	1,172	22	25	22	11	7	5	–	8	3
INSA	4–11 Jul 2022	1,019	24	24	20	13	8	5	–	6	Tie
Wahlkreisprognose	7–15 Jun 2022	1,031	24	26	16	14	7	5	–	8	2
Wahlkreisprognose	23–30 May 2022	1,000	24	23	18	16	7	4	–	8	1
Wahlkreisprognose	6–14 Apr 2022	994	20	21	19	20	5	8	–	7	1
INSA	4–11 Apr 2022	1,027	24	22	20	16	7	5	–	6	2
INSA	1 Mar 2022	1,000	25	23	19	16	6	6	–	5	2
Infratest dimap	17–22 Feb 2022	1,158	23	24	19	15	5	7	–	7	1
INSA	24–30 Nov 2021	1,000	24	23	15	18	7	7	–	6	1
INSA	29 Sep–4 Oct 2021	1,074	20	24	15	21	7	8	–	5	3
2021 federal election	26 Sep 2021	–	11.4	24.0	16.9	23.4	6.6	9.0	–	8.7	0.6
Infratest dimap	20–23 Jul 2021	1,162	27	22	21	11	6	6	–	7	5
INSA	9–15 Jul 2021	1,006	27	22	21	9	7	8	–	6	5
Wahlkreisprognose	17–24 Jun 2021	–	28	22	21	10.5	6.5	7	–	5	6
INSA	7–14 Jun 2021	1,006	26	23	22	9	6	7	–	7	3
Wahlkreisprognose	18 May 2021	–	26	23	16	10.5	10.5	8	–	6	3
INSA	8–16 Mar 2021	1,036	30	23	19	9	8	6	–	5	7
Infratest dimap	25 Feb–1 Mar 2021	1,000	29	23	22	10	5	6	–	6	6
INSA	27 Jan–2 Feb 2021	1,000	31	23	22	7	8	6	–	3	8
Wahlkreisprognose	23–31 Jan 2021	–	29	22.5	25	10	6	5	–	2.5	4
Wahlkreisprognose	10–17 Nov 2020	–	33.5	22.5	24	8	5	3.5	–	3.5	9.5
INSA	2–5 Nov 2020	1,032	33	22	22	9	6	5	–	3	11
INSA	5–12 Oct 2020	1,004	33	22	22	8	7	4	–	4	11
INSA	24 Aug–2 Sep 2020	1,012	33	22	22	9	5	4	–	5	11
Wahlkreisprognose	9–18 Aug 2020	–	34	20.5	20	10	5.5	5	–	5	13.5
Infratest dimap	30 Jul–4 Aug 2020	1,000	32	20	24	10	6	4	–	4	8
Wahlkreisprognose	17–22 Jun 2020	–	35.5	21	19	8	6	6	–	4.5	14.5
INSA	15–22 Jun 2020	1,016	35	22	22	8	6	3	–	3	13
INSA	14–19 May 2020	1,010	34	22	21	8	7	5	–	3	12
Wahlkreisprognose	2–10 May 2020	–	35	25	17.5	8	3.5	8	–	3	10
Wahlkreisprognose	14–19 Apr 2020	–	34	26	20.5	8	4	4	–	3.5	8
INSA	25–31 Mar 2020	1,018	37	23	18	7	7	4	–	4	14
INSA	5–9 Mar 2020	1,034	38	25	15	8	6	4	–	4	13
Wahlkreisprognose	13 Feb 2020	–	41	25.5	10	10.5	5	4	–	4	15.5
INSA	10–13 Feb 2020	1,006	40	25	14	7	6	4	–	4	15
Infratest dimap	7–10 Feb 2020	1,007	39	24	13	10	5	4	–	5	15
Forsa	6 Feb 2020	1,003	37	24	12	9	7	4	–	7	13
INSA	5–6 Feb 2020	1,006	34	23	19	6	6	7	–	5	11
Infratest dimap	21–25 Jan 2020	1,000	32	24	19	8	6	6	–	5	8
2019 state election	27 Oct 2019	–	31.0	23.4	21.7	8.2	5.2	5.0	–	4.9	7.6

Hypothetical scenarios

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Ramelow list	AfD	CDU	SPD	Grüne	FDP	BSW	Others	Lead
Wahlkreisprognose	17–24 Dec 2023	987	35 [a]	37	15	[a]	4.5	3.5	[a]	5	2
			25.5 [b]	33	14.5	[b]	[b]	3.5	17.5	6	7.5

Minister President polling

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size												None/ Unsure	Lead
			Ramelow Linke	Höcke AfD	Mohring CDU	Voigt CDU	Maier SPD	Siegesmund Grüne	Stengele Grüne	Henfling Grüne	Kemmerich FDP	Kindervater Independent	Wagenknecht BSW
INSA	5–12 Aug 2024	1,000	18	18	–	11	4	–	1	1	3	–	29	15	11
			26	20		–	–		–	–	–		–	54	6
Wahlkreisprognose	17–24 Dec 2023	987	40	30		11	4				6			9	10
			33	26		10	4				5		13	9	7
			50	27		–	–				–		–	23	23
			45	–		24								31	21
			49			–	13							38	36
			–	20			25							55	5
				28		30	–							42	2
			45	–		–							15	40	30
INSA	30 Oct – 7 Nov 2023	1,000	34	18		12	4						–	31	16
INSA	17–24 Apr 2023	1,000	35	16		12	6							31	19
Wahlkreisprognose	5–11 Dec 2022	1,016	41	31		8	8							12	10
Wahlkreisprognose	25–31 Oct 2022	1,008	35	26		11	14							14	9
Wahlkreisprognose	29 Aug–6 Sep 2022	1,000	32	26		14	14							14	6
INSA	4–11 Jul 2022	1,019	38	11		4	3							44	27
Wahlkreisprognose	23–30 May 2022	1,000	40	18		15	16							11	22
Wahlkreisprognose	6–14 Apr 2022	994	38	16		13	18							15	20
INSA	4–11 Apr 2022	1,027	37	9		5	–							49	28
INSA	24 Aug–2 Sep 2020	1,012	42	9		7	3	2			5			32	33
INSA	5–9 Mar 2020	1,034	56	16		–	–	–			–			21	40
Forsa	6 Feb 2020	1,003	64	–	9						6	3		18	55
Infratest dimap	21–25 Jan 2020	1,000	60	9	19						–	–		10	41

Preferred coalition

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Assessment	Linke SPD BSW			Linke SPD Grüne			Linke SPD		Linke CDU BSW			Linke CDU SPD			Linke CDU		Linke CDU SPD FDP				Linke AfD		CDU SPD Grüne			CDU SPD Grüne FDP				CDU SPD FDP			AfD BSW		AfD CDU FDP			AfD CDU
Wahlkreisprognose	17–24 Dec 2023	987	Positive	33			32			–		32			33			31		27				17		–			19				28			32		29			41
Infratest dimap	28 Jun–3 Jul 2023	1,193	Positive	–			27			–		–			–			26		–				–		21			13				27			–		–			31
			Negative				67											67								73			81				67								63
Infratest dimap	30 Jul–4 Aug 2020	1,000	Positive	–			45			43		–			–			32		–				–		36			–				–			–		21			19
			Negative				52			52								63								60												76			78
Infratest dimap	21–25 Jan 2020	1,000	Positive	–			43			–		–			–			33		–				–		–			–				–			–		–			19
			Negative				54											64																							79

Results

Party		Party-list			Constituency			Total seats	+/–
		Votes	%	Seats	Votes	%	Seats
	Alternative for Germany (AfD)	396,704	32.84	3	408,011	34.33	29	32	+10
	Christian Democratic Union (CDU)	285,141	23.61	12	397,927	33.48	11	23	+2
	Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW)	190,448	15.77	15	28,478	2.40	0	15	+15
	The Left (Die Linke)	157,641	13.05	8	180,207	15.16	4	12	–17
	Social Democratic Party (SPD)	73,088	6.05	6	92,510	7.78	0	6	–2
	Alliance 90/The Greens (Grüne)	38,289	3.17	0	19,092	1.61	0	0	–5
	Free Voters (FW)	15,371	1.27	0	33,405	2.81	0	0	–
	Free Democratic Party (FDP)	13,582	1.12	0	18,706	1.57	0	0	–5
	Action Party for Animal Welfare (APfT)	12,113	1.00	0				0	–
	Values Union (WU)	6,780	0.56	0	4,192	0.35	0	0	–
	Family Party (Familie)	5,722	0.47	0				0	–
	Bündnis Deutschland (BD)	5,508	0.46	0				0	–
	Pirate Party Germany (Piraten)	3,718	0.31	0	449	0.04	0	0	–
	Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP)	2,389	0.20	0	2,196	0.18	0	0	–
	Marxist–Leninist Party of Germany (MLPD)	1,342	0.11	0	617	0.05	0	0	–
	Other			0	2,696	0.23	0	0	–
Total		1,207,836	100.00	44	1,188,486	100.00	44	88	–2
Valid votes		1,207,836	99.15		1,188,486	97.56
Invalid/blank votes		10,354	0.85		29,704	2.44
Total votes		1,218,190	100.00		1,218,190	100.00
Registered voters/turnout		1,655,343	73.59		1,655,343	73.59
Source: Results

Members

Constituency		Member	Party	Votes
001	Eichsfeld I	König, Thadäus	CDU	54.3%
002	Eichsfeld II	Tasch, Christina	CDU	47.1%
003	Nordhausen I	Prophet, Jörg	AfD	40.3%
004	Nordhausen II	Düben-Schaumann, Kerstin	AfD	39.8%
005	Wartburgkreis I	Krell, Uwe	AfD	38.5%
006	Wartburgkreis II – Eisenach	Jary, Ulrike	CDU	42.4%
007	Wartburgkreis III	Malsch, Marcus	CDU	46.3%
008	Unstrut-Hainich-Kreis I	Urbach, Jonas	CDU	37.1%
009	Unstrut-Hainich-Kreis II	Möller, Stefan	AfD	39.7%
010	Kyffhäuserkreis I – Eichsfeld III	Schard, Stefan	CDU	42.0%
011	Kyffhäuserkreis II	Cotta, Jens	AfD	46.5%
012	Schmalkalden-Meiningen I	Rottstedt, Vivien	AfD	37.4%
013	Schmalkalden-Meiningen II	Abicht, Jan	AfD	39.8%
014	Gotha I	Kramer, Marcel	AfD	37.3%
015	Gotha II	Steinbrück, Stephan	AfD	34.7%
016	Sömmerda I – Gotha III	Haseloff, Daniel	AfD	38.6%
017	Sömmerda II	Czuppon, Torsten	AfD	42.8%
018	Hildburghausen I – Schmalkalden-Meiningen III	Hoffmann, Nadine	AfD	41.6%
019	Sonneberg I	Treutler, Jürgen	AfD	42.6%
020	Hildburghausen II – Sonneberg II	Berger, Melanie	AfD	41.6%
021	Suhl – Schmalkalden-Meiningen IV	Luhn, Thomas	AfD	32.8%
022	Ilm-Kreis I	Bühl, Andreas	CDU	39.6%
023	Ilm-Kreis II	Kießling, Olaf	AfD	40.2%
024	Erfurt I	Schlösser, Sascha	AfD	35.7%
025	Erfurt II	Waßmann, Niklas	CDU	33.7%
026	Erfurt III	Ramelow, Bodo	DIE LINKE	42.4%
027	Erfurt IV	Erfurth, Marek	AfD	26.7%
028	Saalfeld-Rudolstadt I	Benninghaus, Thomas	AfD	37.5%
029	Saalfeld-Rudolstadt II	Häußer, Denis	AfD	38.6%
030	Weimarer Land I – Saalfeld-Rudolstadt III	Nauer, Brunhilde Ursula Margit	AfD	38.2%
031	Weimar I – Weimarer Land II	Gerhardt, Peter	AfD	38.3%
032	Weimar II	Große-Röthig, Ulrike	DIE LINKE	33.1%
033	Saale-Orla-Kreis I	Thrum, Uwe	AfD	47.4%
034	Saale-Orla-Kreis II	Mühlmann, Ringo	AfD	44.6%
035	Saale-Holzland-Kreis I	Tiesler, Stephan	CDU	39.8%
036	Saale-Holzland-Kreis II	Muhsal, Wiebke	AfD	38.9%
037	Jena I	Thomas, Jens	DIE LINKE	33.5%
038	Jena II	Güngör, Lena Saniye	DIE LINKE	25.1%
039	Greiz I	Schweinsburg, Martina	CDU	46.7%
040	Greiz II	Tischner, Christian	CDU	43.0%
041	Gera I	Laudenbach, Dieter Michael	AfD	36.9%
042	Gera II	Dr. Lauerwald, Wolfgang	AfD	43.6%
043	Altenburger Land I	Hoffmann, Thomas	AfD	42.4%
044	Altenburger Land II	Braga, Torben	AfD	42.8%
List		Müller, Anja	DIE LINKE
		Schaft, Christian
		König-Preuss, Katharina
		Schubert, Andreas
		Mitteldorf, Katja
		Prof. Dr. Hoff, Benjamin Immanuel
		Stark, Linda
		Hande, Ronald
		Höcke, Björn	AfD
		Dr. Dietrich, Jens
		Jankowski, Denny
		Voigt, Mario	CDU
		Meißner, Beate
		Zippel, Christoph
		Worm, Henry
		Rosin, Marion
		Gerbothe, Carolin
		Geibert, Lennart
		Dr. Weißkopf, Wolfgang
		Heber, Claudia
		Kowalleck, Maik
		Croll, Jane
		Henkel, Martin
		Maier, Georg	SPD
		Dr. Klisch, Cornelia
		Hey, Matthias
		Merz, Janine
		Liebscher, Lutz
		Schenk, Katharina
		Wolf, Katja	BSW
		Schütz, Steffen
		Quasebarth, Steffen
		Hupach, Sigrid
		Dr. Augsten, Frank
		Hoffmeister, Dirk
		Küntzel, Sven
		Kummer, Tilo
		Kästner, Alexander
		Herzog, Matthias
		Behrendt, Nina
		Wirsing, Anke
		Hutschenreuther, Ralph
		Kobelt, Roberto
		Dr. Wogawa, Stefan

• 
  AfD vote
• 
  CDU vote
• 
  BSW vote
• 
  Linke vote
• 
  SPD vote
• 
  Green vote

Electorate

Demographic		Linke	AfD	CDU	SPD	Grüne	FDP	BSW	Other
Total vote		13.1%	32.8%	23.6%	6.1%	3.2%	1.1%	15.8%	4.3%
Sex
Men		12%	38%	22%	6%	3%	1%	14%	4%
Women		14%	27%	24%	6%	4%	1%	18%	6%
Age
16–24 years old		16%	38%	13%	7%	5%	1%	12%	8%
25–34 years old		14%	36%	16%	7%	6%	1%	13%	7%
35–44 years old		10%	36%	21%	7%	5%	2%	13%	6%
45–59 years old		10%	37%	24%	5%	3%	1%	15%	5%
60–69 years old		13%	32%	26%	5%	1%	1%	19%	3%
70 and older		20%	19%	31%	7%	1%	1%	19%	2%
Employment status
Self-employed		6%	30%	32%	4%	5%	3%	15%	5%
Employees		14%	33%	23%	6%	4%	1%	15%	4%
Workers		8%	49%	15%	4%	2%	1%	16%	5%
Pensioners		16%	23%	30%	7%	1%	1%	19%	3%
Education
Simple education		11%	47%	21%	4%	1%	0%	12%	4%
Medium education		11%	41%	22%	4%	1%	1%	17%	3%
High education		16%	21%	26%	10%	6%	2%	15%	4%
Source: Infratest dimap [24]

Analysis and aftermath

This was the first time the AfD has won the plurality of seats in a state election. With over one-third of seats, the AfD has a Sperrminorität ("blocking minority"), meaning that certain parliamentary actions requiring a two-thirds majority, such as the appointment of judges, amendments to the state constitution, and an early dissolution of parliament, cannot take place without its support even if it is not in government.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz called on other political parties to prevent the AfD from governing by upholding a "firewall" against them. ^[25] He described the election results as "bitter" and "worrying" and urged other parties to form stable governments without involving "right-wing extremists." ^[25] In response, AfD co-leader Alice Weidel stated that voters in Thuringia and Saxony had given her party a "clear mandate to govern" and that "firewalls are undemocratic." ^[25]

Though a CDU-AfD coalition would have a majority, all other parties have ruled out forming a coalition with the party and its Thuringian leader, Björn Höcke, due to their extremist tendencies. The State Office for Protection of the Constitution classifies the Thuringian AfD as a right-wing extremist organisation, and Höcke has been found guilty of using the forbidden Nazi slogan "Everything for Germany". ^[3] The CDU has historically declined to collaborate with Die Linke (The Left), though a coalition with BSW, also a radical leftist party, was also considered unappealing by party members. ^[25]

In the aftermath to the elections in both Thuringia and Saxony, Sahra Wagenknecht, leader of the BSW, stated her preferences to go into a coalition with either the CDU and/or the SPD in an interview with ARD. ^[26]

Landtag opening session controversy

The office of President of the Landtag, the body's presiding officer, is traditionally reserved for the largest party in parliament. However, the four other parties all rejected the possibility of the AfD holding this position given its classification as an extremist party. ^[27] In addition, AfD made known its candidate for President would be its MdL Wiebke Muhsal, who was convicted and fined for defrauding the Landtag administration in 2015. The other parties saw this as a deliberate provocation. ^[28]

To avoid a potential scenario where a President of the Landtag is elected with AfD votes, or that of a deadlock with AfD candidates repeatedly being voted down, CDU and BSW jointly proposed changing the election procedure at the first sitting on 26 September. The election requires a simple majority, and under the rule then in effect the largest party had the right of nomination (Vorschlagsrecht). If that nominee failed to be elected twice, the rule stated that "new candidates may be proposed for further ballots" but was unclear who may do this; it was the opinion of AfD that they alone still had the right of nomination, and that the rules could not be changed without a duly elected President. The new proposal was to allow all parties to nominate candidates from the outset. CDU put forward as a consensus candidate its MdL Thadäus König, who received the highest share of constituency votes of any candidate in this election. The other parties indicated they would support him. ^[29]

Father of the house Jürgen Treutler of AfD, who was the presiding officer of the Landtag until the election of a President, declined to allow a vote on the rule change, ignored other motions and requests to speak, and ultimately prevented any other business from taking place by refusing to recognize a quorum. The other parties, in particular CDU parliamentary leader Andreas Bühl, accused Treutler of not acting in a non-partisan manner, with Bühl angrily condemning what he called "a seizure of power" during the contentious session. The sitting was abandoned and CDU, supported by other parties, filed an emergency complaint with the Thuringian Constitutional Court in response. ^{[30] [31]} Treutler then filed a countercomplaint on 27 September, asking the court to dismiss the CDU complaint as inadmissible. ^[32]

In the late hours of 27 September, the court ruled unanimously in favor of CDU's complaint. It held that there was no exclusive right for the largest parliamentary group to propose candidates for the office of President of the Landtag, and thus that amending the voting procedure was permissible. The court also confirmed that members have the right to debate and amend the rules before the election of a President of the Landtag. ^{[33] [34] [35]} Treutler was thus required to put the motion to a vote at the reconstituted sitting on 28 September, which passed. The CDU candidate König was then elected President with 54 votes to 32 for Muhsal. ^[28]

Government formation

The day after the election, the CDU executive voted unanimously to seek exploratory talks with the BSW and SPD. ^[36] BSW leader Katja Wolf stated that federal leader Sahra Wagenknecht would be attending these initial discussions to "stand up for war and peace issues," but would not be involved in further negotiations. Bodo Ramelow and The Left called for the CDU to "act responsibly and find a majority among democratic parties". They also denied rumours that Left party deputies could defect to the BSW to provide the prospective government with a parliamentary majority. ^[27]

In a speech on 20 September, federal CDU leader Friedrich Merz described a coalition including BSW in either Thuringia or Saxony as "very, very, very unlikely". ^[37]

Exploratory talks for a CDU-BSW-SPD coalition, the so-called “blackberry coalition", began on 30 September. This proposed minority government is still one seat short of a majority, requiring support or abstentions from The Left to conduct business. ^[38] This is akin to the previous Second Ramelow cabinet, which took the form of a Left-SPD-Green minority government that was tolerated by CDU without any formal agreement. Ramelow stated he would not object to Mario Voigt's election as Minister-President. ^[39]

On 17 October, Die Welt reported that exploratory talks had concluded and a preliminary distribution of ministries had taken place. There was still no conclusion as to how to achieve a majority. ^[40] CDU and SPD confirmed the talks had finished, but described the material leaked to Die Welt as "fake". ^[41]

Representing the Left, Ramelow told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung that the twelve Left MdLs would vote en bloc on any issue and he would not individually be a "constant majority-maker" for the coalition. ^[42]

On 25 October, amid reports that talks were stalling, Wagenknecht was heavily criticized for personally vetoing compromise foreign policy language that was to be inserted into the preamble of a report on the exploratory talks. ^[43] In an interview with ARD, Merz accused Wagenknecht of "wanting to run a federal election campaign where she constantly says no" instead of attempting to lead, and that his party would not compromise on NATO membership and aid to Ukraine. ^[44] Though BSW state leaders expressed their desire to continue, SPD state leader Maier told MDR that he had little hope that coalition talks could succeed. ^[43] Despite this, after a pause in talks over the following weekend, the party leaders announced they had reached a consensus on foreign policy issues and decided to begin formal coalition negotiations. They are expected to start on 29 October and last for two weeks. ^[45]

Notes

1. Linke, SPD and BSW within hypothetical Bodo Ramelow list.
2. Linke, SPD and Grüne within hypothetical Bodo Ramelow list.

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