2024 Saxony state election

2024 Saxony state election

←  2019 1 September 2024 2029 →
All 120 seats in the Landtag of Saxony 61 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	2,367,607 (74.4%) 8.2 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader Michael Kretschmer Jörg Urban Sabine Zimmermann Party CDU AfD BSW Last election 45 seats, 32.1% 38 seats, 27.5% Did not exist Seats won 41 40 15 Seat change 4 2 15 Popular vote 749,114 719,279 277,568 Percentage 31.9% 30.6% 11.8% Swing 0.2 pp 3.1 pp New party   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Petra Köpping Wolfram Günther & Katja Meier Susanne Schaper Party SPD Greens Left Last election 10 seats, 7.7% 12 seats, 8.6% 14 seats, 10.4% Seats won 10 7 6 Seat change 0 5 8 Popular vote 172,021 119,980 104,891 Percentage 7.3% 5.1% 4.5% Swing 0.4 pp 3.5 pp 5.9 pp   Seventh party   FW Leader Matthias Berger Party FW Last election 0 seats, 3.4% Seats won 1 Seat change 1 Popular vote 53,027 Percentage 2.3% Swing 1.1 pp
Results for the single-member constituencies
Government before election Kretschmer II CDU–Greens–SPD Government after election TBD

The 2024 Saxony state election was held on 1 September 2024 to elect members to the 8th Landtag of Saxony. It was held on the same day as the 2024 Thuringian state election. ^[1] Going into the election, the state government was led by Michael Kretschmer of the CDU as Minister-President, in a coalition with the Greens and the SPD.

The CDU remained the largest party with slight losses, followed closely by the Alternative for Germany (AfD) which obtained its best ever result. The SPD remained steady while the Greens fell to just over 5% of the vote; the incumbent coalition lost its majority. ^{[2] [3] [4]} The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance ran for the first time and won 12% and fifteen seats. The Left fell below the 5% electoral threshold but retained its representation in the Landtag after winning two direct constituencies. The Free Voters of Saxony (FW) elected a single member after lead candidate Matthias Berger won the constituency of Leipzig-Land III. ^{[5] [6]}

Background

The 2019 election was marked by high gains for the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which gained almost 28 percent of the vote and became the second strongest force. After losses, the CDU ended up with almost 32 percent as the strongest party ahead of the AfD. The Left and the SPD received 10.4 and 7.7 percent of the vote, respectively. The Greens increased and achieved their best result in a state election in Saxony with 8.6 percent, the Free Democratic Party (FDP) again missed entering parliament with 4.5 percent.

Parties and lists

Party		2019 result	Con. candidates	List candidates	Lead candidate
	Christian Democratic Union (CDU)	32.1%	60	78	Michael Kretschmer
	Alternative for Germany (AfD)	27.5%	60	75	Jörg Urban
	The Left (LINKE)	10.4%	60	47	Susanne Schaper
	Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE)	8.6%	60	30	Katja Meier
	Social Democratic Party (SPD)	7.7%	60	54	Petra Köpping
	Free Democratic Party (FDP)	4.5%	60	48	Robert Malorny
	Free Voters of Saxony (FW)	3.4%	59	33	Matthias Berger
	Die PARTEI	1.6%	3	9	Sabine Kuechler
	Pirate Party Germany (PIRATEN)	0.3%	–	9	Stephanie Henkel
	Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP)	0.3%	2	11	Jonas Bialon
	Civil Rights Movement Solidarity (BüSo)	0.1%	4	12	Michael Gründler
	Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW)	–	39	30	Sabine Zimmermann
	Free Saxons (FS)	–	35	30	Martin Kohlmann
	Values Union (WU)	–	5	7	Heiko Petzold
	Alliance Germany (BD)	–	3	16	Steffen Grosse
	Grassroots Democratic Party (dieBasis)	–	3	11	David Murcek
	Alliance C – Christians for Germany (Bündnis C)	–	–	7	Thomas Lamowski
	V-Partei³	–	–	4	Simone Schwarzbach
	Action Party for Animal Welfare (Tierschutz hier!)	–	–	3	Uwe Werner
Other		–	13	–

Opinion polls

Graphical summary

Local regression of polls conducted.

Party polling

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	CDU	AfD	Linke	Grüne	SPD	FDP	FW	BSW	Others	Lead
2024 state election	1 Sep 2024	–	31.9	30.6	4.5	5.1	7.3	0.9	2.3	11.8	5.6	1.3
Wahlkreisprognose	26–31 Aug 2024	1,000	33	31	3	5.5	6	–	–	13.5	8	2
Forsa	27–29 Aug 2024	1,012	33	31	3	6	7	–	–	12	8	2
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	26–29 Aug 2024	1,973	33	30	4	6	6	–	–	12	9	3
INSA	19–23 Aug 2024	1,000	30	32	4	5	6	–	3	15	5	2
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	19–22 Aug 2024	1,028	33	30	4	6	7	–	–	11	9	3
Infratest dimap	19–21 Aug 2024	1,566	31	30	4	6	7	–	–	14	8	1
Wahlkreisprognose	10–18 Aug 2024	1,000	34.5	30	4.5	4.5	5	1	–	14	6.5	4.5
Forsa	7–14 Aug 2024	1,041	33	30	3	6	6	–	–	13	9	3
INSA	5–12 Aug 2024	1,500	29	32	5	5	5	2	4	15	3	3
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	5–8 Aug 2024	1,003	34	30	4	6	6	–	–	11	9	4
Infratest dimap	12–18 Jun 2024	1,157	29	30	3	7	7	–	–	15	9	1
INSA	10–17 Jun 2024	1,500	30	32	4	5	5	2	–	15	7	2
2024 EP election	9 Jun 2024	–	21.8	31.8	4.9	5.9	6.9	2.4	2.4	12.6	11.3	10
Civey	19 Mar – 2 Apr 2024	3,002	31	30	5	6	6	3	–	10	9	1
INSA	11–18 Mar 2024	1,000	30	34	5	5	6	2	3	11	4	4
Wahlkreisprognose	6–15 Mar 2024	1,200	31.5	31	3	6.5	6	1.5	–	13.5	7	0.5
Infratest dimap	18–23 Jan 2024	1,177	30	35	4	7	7	–	–	8	9	5
Forsa	7–10 Jan 2024	1,507	30	34	6	8	7	3	3	4	8	4
Wahlkreisprognose	2–9 Jan 2024	970	33.5	32	8.5	7	6	2.5	–	–	10	1.5
			30.5	28.5	6	5.5	5.5	2	–	15.5	6.5	2
Civey	18 Dec – 1 Jan 2024	3,004	33	37	8	7	3	1	–	–	11	4
Civey	19 Nov – 3 Dec 2023	3,002	33	33	7	7	7	2	3	–	8	Tie
Wahlkreisprognose	31 Oct – 7 Nov 2023	1,173	28.5	32.5	7.5	5.5	8.5	4	–	–	13.5	4
			27.5	31	4.5	5.5	6	–	–	14.5	11	3.5
INSA	11–22 Aug 2023	1,500	29	35	9	6	7	5	–	–	9	6
Wahlkreisprognose	8–12 Jun 2023	1,558	30	32.5	9	7	10	5	–	–	6.5	2.5
Wahlkreisprognose	16–28 May 2023	987	31	32	9.5	7	9.5	4	–	–	7	1
Wahlkreisprognose	18–20 Dec 2022	1,020	29.5	31	8	9.5	10.5	3.5	–	–	8	1.5
Wahlkreisprognose	17–19 Sep 2022	1,000	34	30	10	7	7	3	–	–	9	4
Wahlkreisprognose	9–15 Jun 2022	1,204	35	28	7.5	9.5	9	3	–	–	8	7
Wahlkreisprognose	9–16 May 2022	1,023	33	27	5.5	9.5	12	4	–	–	9	6
INSA	1–6 Apr 2022	1,000	25	28	9	9	12	7	3	–	7	3
Wahlkreisprognose	26 Mar – 1 Apr 2022	1,100	29	26.5	6	9	15	5	–	–	9.5	2.5
Infratest dimap	17–22 Feb 2022	1,178	27	24	10	8	13	7	3	–	8	3
Wahlkreisprognose	5–12 Oct 2021	1,002	22	25.5	7	9	19	10	–	–	7.5	3.5
2021 federal election	26 Sep 2021	–	17.2	24.6	9.3	8.6	19.3	11.0	2.3	–	7.7	5.3
INSA	6–13 Sep 2021	1,000	31	26	11	7	11	8	–	–	6	5
Infratest dimap	13–18 Aug 2021	1,179	35	21	10	7	11	6	4	–	6	14
INSA	2–9 Aug 2021	1,001	34	25	13	7	8	8	–	–	5	9
INSA	18–25 May 2021	1,000	24	26	11	13	6	12	–	–	8	2
Wahlkreisprognose	9–17 Dec 2020	–	40	30	9.5	8	7	1.5	–	–	4	10
INSA	1–15 Dec 2020	1,008	34	26	11	10	7	5	–	–	7	8
Wahlkreisprognose	25 Aug – 3 Sep 2020	–	38	27.5	10	10.5	5	3	2	–	4	10.5
INSA	29 Jun – 2 Jul 2020	1,020	36	26	11	10	7	4	–	–	6	10
Wahlkreisprognose	2–9 Jun 2020	–	40	26	8.5	9.5	6	3	1	–	6	14
Wahlkreisprognose	1–5 Apr 2020	–	36.5	29	9	7.5	7.5	4	1.5	–	5	7.5
2019 state election	1 Sep 2019	–	32.1	27.5	10.4	8.6	7.7	4.5	3.4	–	5.8	4.6

Minister-President polling

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size								None/ Unsure	Lead
			Kretschmer CDU	Urban AfD	Chrupalla AfD	Gebhardt Linke	Günther Grüne	Dulig SPD	Zimmermann BSW
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	26–29 Aug 2024	1,973	70	15	–	–	–	–	–	15	55
INSA	19–23 Aug 2024	1,000	45	18	–	–	–	–	–	37	27
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	19–22 Aug 2024	1,028	68	13	–	–	–	–	–	19	55
Infratest dimap	19–21 Aug 2024	1,566	58	20	–	–	–	–	–	22	38
Forsa	7–14 Aug 2024	1,041	50	14	–	–	–	–	2	34	36
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	5–8 Aug 2024	1,003	64	14	–	–	–	–	–	22	50
Infratest dimap	12–18 Jun 2024	1,157	58	17	–	–	–	–	–	25	41
Wahlkreisprognose	2–9 Jan 2024	970	56	23	–	–	–	–	–	21	33
			56	–	29	–	–	–	–	15	27
Wahlkreisprognose	31 Oct – 7 Nov 2023	1,173	57	26	–	–	–	–	–	17	31
Wahlkreisprognose	8–12 Jun 2023	1,558	45	21	–	–	–	–	–	34	24
Wahlkreisprognose	18–20 Dec 2022	1,020	39	24	–	4	3	9	–	21	15

Results

Party		Party-list			Constituency			Total seats	+/–
		Votes	%	Seats	Votes	%	Seats
	Christian Democratic Union	749,114	31.90	14	805,257	34.43	27	41	3
	Alternative for Germany	719,279	30.63	12	794,223	33.96	28	40	3
	Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht	277,568	11.82	15	148,361	6.34	0	15	New
	Social Democratic Party	172,021	7.33	10	144,425	6.18	0	10	1
	Alliance 90/The Greens	119,980	5.11	5	119,033	5.09	2	7	6
	The Left	104,891	4.47	4	149,124	6.38	2	6	8
	Free Voters	53,027	2.26	0	113,062	4.83	1	1	1
	Free Saxons	52,100	2.22	0	12,693	0.54	0	0	0
	Action Party for Animal Welfare	23,606	1.01	0				0	0
	Free Democratic Party	20,995	0.89	0	33,650	1.44	0	0	0
	Die PARTEI	19,752	0.84	0	2,606	0.11	0	0	0
	Pirate Party	6,772	0.29	0				0	0
	Bündnis Deutschland	6,718	0.29	0	972	0.04	0	0	New
	Values Union	6,474	0.28	0	1,818	0.08	0	0	New
	Grassroots Democratic Party of Germany	4,486	0.19	0	702	0.03	0	0	New
	Alliance C	4,370	0.19	0				0	0
	V-Partei3	3,283	0.14	0				0	0
	Ecological Democratic Party	1,955	0.08	0	321	0.01	0	0	0
	Civil Rights Movement Solidarity	1,582	0.07	0	752	0.03	0	0	0
	Team Zastrow				6,988	0.30	0	0	0
	Solutions for our region				2,152	0.09	0	0	0
	Party of Progress				249	0.01	0	0	0
	We Are Leipzig				382	0.02	0	0	0
	Independents				2,040	0.09	0	0	0
Total		2,347,973	100.00	60	2,338,810	100.00	60	120	–
Valid votes		2,347,973	99.17		2,338,810	98.78
Invalid/blank votes		19,634	0.83		28,797	1.22
Total votes		2,367,607	100.00		2,367,607	100.00
Registered voters/turnout		3,182,683	74.39		3,182,683	74.39
Source: wahlen.sachsen.de

• 
  AfD vote
• 
  CDU vote
• 
  BSW vote
• 
  Linke vote
• 
  SPD vote
• 
  Green vote

Aftermath

The first announcement of the seat distribution, which was early in the morning of 2 September, showed 42 seats for CDU, 41 for AfD, 9 for SPD, and 6 for the Greens. Later in the morning, the state electoral committee announced there had been an error in calculating the seat distribution: one seat was deducted from CDU's and AfD's blocs, and one seat was added to SPD's and Greens' blocs. ^[7] The committee blamed a software bug that resulted in the 117th through 120th seats being allocated incorrectly. External observers initially speculated that the seat distribution was mistakenly calculated with the D'Hondt method, even though the Sainte-Laguë method was to replace it beginning with this election; administrators denied this and stated it was a coincidence that the incorrect seat distribution matched the D'Hondt method's result. ^{[8] [9]} Notably, the loss of this one seat denied AfD a Sperrminorität ("blocking minority") that would have given it veto power over certain parliamentary actions requiring a two-thirds majority, such as judicial appointments and constitutional amendments, even if it is not in government. ^[7]

Saxony has a version of the Grundmandatsklausel ("basic mandate clause") that is present in federal elections, which grants full proportional seating to parties that win two constituency seats even if they do not reach the electoral threshold of 5% of party-list votes. This enabled Die Linke, which received only 4.5% of party-list votes, to win list seats and receive representation in parliament proportionate to its vote share. ^[10]

Electoral fraud investigations

The State Criminal Police Office is prosecuting a case of suspected electoral fraud, in which 111 mail ballots in Dresden, 14 in Radeberg, and one in Dohna had their actual votes pasted over and replaced with votes for the right-wing extremist Free Saxony. ^{[11] [12]} Initial suspicions were raised after the postal voting district Langebrück-2/Schönborn in Dresden returned an unusually high result of 10.2% of votes for the party, which polled around 2% or less nearly everywhere else in the state. ^[12] The Dresden and Bautzen electoral committees invalidated all of the modified ballots in their final canvasses of the results on 5 September. ^[13] The state electoral committee decided this was sufficient and took no further action in its final canvass on 13 September. ^[14]

Experts from TU Dresden later noticed the neighboring postal voting district Langebrück-1 had returned a similarly unusual figure of 13.4% in June 2024 local elections. Police confirmed that 154 manipulated postal ballots from that election were discovered. ^[13] Michael Schleinitz, a 44-year-old Free Saxony member from Langebrück who was elected to its district council because of the modified ballots, was suspected of both cases. ^{[11] [15] [16]} Schleinitz was arrested for electoral fraud and unrelated charges of attempted arson on 28 October. ^[17]

Government formation

After the elections in both Thuringia and Saxony, Sahra Wagenknecht, leader of the BSW, stated her preferences to go into a coalition with either the CDU and/or the SPD in an interview with ARD. ^[6]

Though a right-wing CDU-AfD coalition would have a majority, the national CDU has prohibited any state faction from working with that party. Because of this, the only possible majority coalition is between the CDU, BSW and SPD, ^[18] also known as the “blackberry coalition”. ^{[19] [20]} This coalition would involve 66 members of the Landtag.

Kretschmer met with Wagenknecht on 9 September "to explore possibilities for constructive political cooperation", with an eye toward beginning negotiations with BSW on the state level. Federal CDU leader Friedrich Merz appealed to nervous party members to trust Kretschmer and Mario Voigt in their respective negotiations, but reiterated that the party would refuse any cooperation or even discussions with AfD. ^[21] Kretschmer admitted successful government formation would be a "major challenge" but has repeatedly ruled out a minority government. ^{[22] [23]}

In a speech on 20 September, Merz described a potential coalition including BSW in either Saxony or Thuringia as "very, very, very unlikely", though with a stated goal of keeping AfD out of the Minister-President's office, he did not rule out other forms of cooperation with the party. ^[24] Exploratory talks between CDU, BSW and SPD began on 23 September. ^{[25] [26]}

On 17 October, the three parties produced a report on the exploratory talks concluding that "constructive and solution-oriented cooperation for Saxony is possible". The parties' state executive committees will meet to vote on approving further negotiations in the following days. ^[27] On 25 October, SPD suspended its participation in protest of several BSW MdLs voting with AfD to establish a parliamentary inquiry committee into the state government's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic; they were resumed the following week after discussions among the parties' leadership. ^[28]

On 5 November, BSW left the talks permanently and declared they had failed, citing that the parties had irreconcilable differences on the topics of state finances, migration and the War in Ukraine. The only possible remaining government is a CDU-led minority government or coalition, though Kretschmer has repeatedly ruled it out. If a Minister-President is not elected in four months after the first sitting of the Landtag (a deadline of 1 February 2025) the state constitution requires a dissolution of the Landtag and new elections. ^[29]

Despite Kretschmer's previous statements, CDU and SPD leaders announced on 15 November they had begun negotiations toward forming a minority coalition, which are expected to finish within a month. Kretschmer stated there would be a "consultation process" with the other parties before any legislation is introduced to ensure it has enough support to pass. BSW placed a commitment to halting cuts in social-welfare spending and a harder policy toward illegal migration as conditions of supporting the government. ^[30]

References

1. "German elections: Far-right AfD on brink of political earthquake". BBC News. 30 August 2024. Archived from the original on 2 September 2024. Retrieved 1 September 2024.
2. "Far-right AfD wins eastern state in Germany's regional election". Al Jazeera. 1 September 2024. Archived from the original on 1 September 2024. Retrieved 2 September 2024.
3. "Success of far-right AfD shows east and west Germany are drifting further apart". The Guardian. 1 September 2024. Archived from the original on 1 September 2024. Retrieved 2 September 2024.
4. "German far right hails 'historic' election victory in east". BBC News. 1 September 2024. Archived from the original on 2 September 2024. Retrieved 2 September 2024.
5. Achterberg, Beatrice (2 September 2024). "Landtagswahlen 2024: Koalitionsmöglichkeiten in Sachsen und Thüringen". Neue Zürcher Zeitung (in Swiss High German). ISSN   0376-6829. Archived from the original on 2 September 2024. Retrieved 2 September 2024.
6. "Germany: Thuringia and Saxony elections propel far-right AfD". Deutsche Welle . 1 September 2024. Archived from the original on 2 September 2024. Retrieved 2 September 2024.
7. Tschirner, Ulrike; Sadeghi, Julian (2 September 2024). "Sperrminorität der AfD: Sitzverteilung in Sachsen könnte falsch berechnet worden sein" [AfD blocking minority: Seat distribution in Saxony may have been incorrectly calculated]. Die Zeit (in German). Archived from the original on 2 September 2024.
8. Thust, Sarah (6 September 2024). "Softwarefehler bei der Landtagswahl in Sachsen: Was hinter der Korrektur der Sitzverteilung steckt" [Software errors in the state election in Saxony: What is behind the correction of the seat distribution]. correctiv.org (in German). Archived from the original on 6 September 2024.
9. "Landtagswahl in Sachsen am 1. September 2024". Wahlrecht.de (in German). Archived from the original on 5 September 2024.
10. "Wahlsystem Landtagswahl Sachsen 2024". Wahlrecht.de (in German). Archived from the original on 6 September 2024.
11. "Ermittlungen gegen 44-Jährigen wegen Wahlfälschung in Dresden". www.mdr.de (in German). 13 September 2024. Archived from the original on 13 September 2024.
12. "Kreuze für Rechtextreme: Dresden untersucht mögliche Wahlfälschung auf Stimmzetteln" [Crosses for right-wing extremists: Dresden investigates possible election fraud on ballot papers]. Der Spiegel (in German). 3 September 2024. Archived from the original on 3 September 2024.
13. "Manipulierte Wahlzettel: Wahlauschüsse tagen in Dresden und Radeberg" [Manipulated ballot papers: Election committees meet in Dresden and Radeberg]. MDR Aktuell (in German). Archived from the original on 6 September 2024.
14. "Landtagswahl 2024: Endgültiges amtliches Wahlergebnis" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on 13 September 2024.
15. "LKA Sachsen übernimmt Ermittlungen zu manipulierten Stimmzetteln" [LKA Saxony takes over investigations into manipulated ballot papers]. tagesschau.de (in German). Archived from the original on 3 September 2024.
16. "Wegen Wahlbetrug in Dresden werden Neuwahlen gefordert". www.saechsische.de (in German). Archived from the original on 16 September 2024.
17. "Festnahme: Verdächtigter Wahlfälscher in Dresden soll auch Brandstifter sein". mdr.de (in German). 28 October 2024.
18. "Landeswahlleiter in Sachsen will Ergebnis überprüfen: Landtagswahlen in Thüringen und Sachsen im Liveticker". FAZ (in German). 2 September 2024. Archived from the original on 2 September 2024. Retrieved 2 September 2024.
19. ""Brombeer"-Koalition: Was der Begriff bedeutet und wer ihn erfunden hat". Sächsische Zeitung (in German). Archived from the original on 3 September 2024. Retrieved 3 September 2024.
20. "Bekommt Thüringen eine links tolerierte Brombeer-Koalition?". MDR Aktuell (in German). Archived from the original on 5 September 2024. Retrieved 5 September 2024.
21. "Nach Landtagswahlen in Sachsen: Kretschmer trifft sich zum Gespräch mit Wagenknecht". Der Spiegel (in German). 9 September 2024. Archived from the original on 9 September 2024.
22. "CDU und BSW in Sachsen: Kretschmer stimmt versöhnliche Töne an". www.diesachsen.de (in German). Archived from the original on 20 September 2024.
23. "Sachsen: Kretschmers Annäherung an Wagenknecht" (in German). 10 September 2024. Archived from the original on 10 September 2024.
24. "Merz hält Koalition mit BSW in Ländern für unwahrscheinlich". tagesschau.de (in German). Archived from the original on 20 September 2024.
25. "Mögliche Koalition in Sachsen? CDU, BSW und SPD vereinbaren weitere Gespräche". MDR (in German). 24 September 2024. Archived from the original on 24 September 2024.
26. "Landtags-Vize: BSW- und SPD-Kandidaten fallen zunächst durch". www.diesachsen.de (in German). 1 October 2024. Archived from the original on 1 October 2024.
27. "Gemeinsames Papier: CDU, BSW und SPD einigen sich auf Verhandlungsgrundlage". MDR (in German). 17 October 2024.
28. "Sachsen: SPD unterbricht Sondierungsgespräche - weil BSW für AfD-Antrag stimmte". Der Spiegel (in German). 25 October 2024.
29. "BSW, SPD, CDU: Regierungsbildung in Sachsen gescheitert". Der Spiegel (in German). 6 November 2024.
30. "Konsultationsverfahren soll Sachsen regierungsfähig machen". mdr.de (in German). 15 November 2024.

External links

• Media related to 2024 Saxony state election at Wikimedia Commons