2017 Saarland state election

2017 Saarland state election

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All 51 seats in the Landtag of Saarland 26 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	533,783 (69.7%) 8.1%
First party Second party   Leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer Anke Rehlinger Party CDU SPD Leader since 28 May 2011 [1] 18 June 2016 Last election 19 seats, 35.2% 17 seats, 30.6% Seats won 24 17 Seat change 5 0 Popular vote 217,263 158,057 Percentage 40.7% 29.6% Swing 5.5% 1.0%   Third party Fourth party   Leader Oskar Lafontaine Rudolf Müller Party Left AfD Leader since 9 August 2008 16 September 2016 Last election 9 seats, 16.1% Did not exist Seats won 7 3 Seat change 2 3 Popular vote 68,566 32,971 Percentage 12.8% 6.2% Swing 3.3% New party
Government before election Second Kramp-Karrenbauer cabinet CDU–SPD Government after election Third Kramp-Karrenbauer cabinet CDU–SPD

The 2017 Saarland state election was held on 26 March 2017 to elect the members of the Landtag of Saarland. ^{[2] [3]} The incumbent grand coalition of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Social Democratic Party (SPD) led by Minister-President Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer was returned with an increased majority. ^{[4] [5]}

Even though the Saarland is the second smallest state by population and does not represent Germany as a whole demographically, the election proved to be of pivotal importance to the following state elections and in particular the federal election later that year. Then-SPD leader Martin Schulz led the party to new heights in early 2017 and polls showed the SPD capturing the Minister-President's office in this first election of the year, but the upset CDU victory marked the beginning of a decline in the polls both nationally and in other state elections. This decline culminated in heavy losses for the SPD in Schleswig-Holstein, in North Rhine-Westphalia and, ultimately, in the 2017 German federal election.

Background

The 2012 state election was called after the collapse of the Jamaica coalition of the CDU, Free Democratic Party (FDP) and The Greens. The election saw the collapse of the FDP, a downswing for The Left and Greens, gains for the SPD, and the entry of the Pirates. Afterwards, the CDU and SPD formed a grand coalition. ^[6]

Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the previous Landtag of Saarland.

Name			Ideology	Leader(s)	2012 result		since 2015
					Votes (%)	Seats
	CDU	Christian Democratic Union of Germany Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands	Christian democracy	Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer	35.2%	19 / 51	19 / 51
	SPD	Social Democratic Party of Germany Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands	Social democracy	Anke Rehlinger	30.6%	17 / 51	18 / 51
	Linke	The Left Die Linke	Democratic socialism	Oskar Lafontaine	16.1%	9 / 51	8 / 51
	Piraten	Pirate Party Germany Piratenpartei Deutschland	Pirate politics	Gerd Rainer Weber	7.4%	4 / 51	3 / 51
	Grüne	Alliance 90/The Greens Bündnis 90/Die Grünen	Green politics	Hubert Ulrich Barbara Meyer-Gluche	5.0%	2 / 51	3 / 51

Opinion polling

Party polling

Publication date	Poll source								Others	Lead
26 March 2017	2017 state election	40.7	29.6	12.9	0.7	4.0	3.3	6.2	1.9	11.1
23 Mar 2017	Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	37	32	12.5	–	4.5	4	6	4	5
22 Mar 2017	INSA	35	33	13	–	4	5	6	4	2
17 Mar 2017	Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	37	32	12	–	4	4	7	4	5
16 Mar 2017	Infratest dimap	35	34	13	–	4.5	3	6.5	4	1
9 Mar 2017	Forsa	34	33	13	–	5	4	6	5	1
7 Mar 2017	INSA	36	33	12	–	4	4	7	4	3
26 Jan 2017	Infratest dimap	38	26	14	–	5	4	9	4	12
13 Jan 2017	INSA	35	24	16	–	6	5	10	2	11
15 Nov 2016	Forsa	37	26	15	–	6	3	9	4	11
11 May 2016	Infratest dimap	34	29	12	–	7	4	11	3	5
31 Mar 2015	Infratest dimap	40	33	10	1	6	2	4	4	7
25 May 2014	2014 European election	34.9	34.4	6.6	1.7	6.0	2.2	6.8	7.4	0.5
14 May 2014	Infratest dimap	37	34	13	2	5	–	5	4	3
22 Sep 2013	2013 federal election	37.8	31.0	10.0	2.6	5.7	3.8	5.2	3.9	6.8
7 May 2013	Infratest dimap	39	36	10	2	6	2	3	2	3
25 March 2012	2012 state election	35.2	30.6	16.1	7.4	5.0	1.2	–	4.4	4.6

Minister-President polling

Publication date	Poll source				None
		Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer CDU	Anke Rehlinger SPD	Heiko Maas SPD
23 Mar 2017	Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	53.0	34.0	–	13.0
17 Mar 2017	Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	55.0	31.0	–	14.0
16 Mar 2017	Infratest dimap	51.0	32.0	–	7.0
26 Jan 2017	Infratest dimap	60.0	23.0	–	9.0
15 Nov 2016	Forsa	54.0	19.0	–	–
11 May 2016	Infratest dimap	59.0	26.0	–	10.0
31 Mar 2015	Infratest dimap	62.0	18.0	–	9.0
14 May 2014	Infratest dimap	53.0	–	35.0	6.0
7 May 2013	Infratest dimap	53.0	–	36.0	7.0

Election result

Summary of the 26 March 2017 election results for the Landtag of Saarland

Party		Votes	%	+/-	Seats	+/-	Seats %
	Christian Democratic Union (CDU)	217,263	40.7	5.5	24	5	47.1
	Social Democratic Party (SPD)	158,057	29.6	1.0	17	0	33.3
	The Left (Linke)	68,566	12.8	3.3	7	2	13.7
	Alternative for Germany (AfD)	32,971	6.2	New	3	New	5.9
	Alliance 90/The Greens (Grüne)	21,392	4.0	1.0	0	2	0
	Free Democratic Party (FDP)	17,419	3.3	2.1	0	±0	0
	Family Party of Germany (FAMILIE)	4,435	0.8	0.9	0	±0	0
	Pirate Party (Piraten)	3,979	0.7	6.7	0	4	0
	National Democratic Party (NPD)	3,744	0.7	0.5	0	±0	0
	Others	5,957	1.1		0	±0	0
Total		533,783	100.0		51	±0
Voter turnout			69.7	8.1

Popular Vote CDU   40.70% SPD   29.61% DIE LINKE   12.85% AfD   6.18% B'90/GRÜNE   4.01% FDP   3.26% Other   1.12%

Landtag seats CDU   47.06% SPD   33.33% DIE LINKE   12.73% AfD   5.88%

Outcome

Observers were surprised by the CDU's strong performance, as opinion polls predicted a close contest between the CDU and SPD. ^[7] After the election, several commentators described the results as a boost for the September 2017 electoral prospects of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the CDU, ^{[8] [9] [10]} and as a setback for SPD leader Martin Schulz. ^[11]

As both the CDU and SPD refused to coalition with AfD, the CDU and SPD coalition reached an agreement to continue governing together after the election. ^[12]

References

1. The party leader: Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer Archived 2016-03-02 at the Wayback Machine , cdu-saar.de (German)
2. Election dates in Germany, wahlrecht.de (German)
3. Vor dem Wahlkampf: Elefantenrunde ohne Berührungsängste, Saarbrücker Zeitung (German), 13 February 2016
4. Kramp-Karrenbauer für Fortsetzung der großen Koalition im Saarland, focus.de (German), 2 Oct 2014
5. Die „rote Charlotte“ hält sich bereit, Frankfurter Allgemeine (German), 29 May 2015
6. Merkel's party wins German state election, AlJazeera (English), 25 March 2012
7. Delcker, Janosch (27 March 2017). "Merkel: Embracing 'Grand Coalition' Helped Us Win Saarland". Politico . Retrieved 27 March 2017.
8. Chase, Jefferson (27 March 2017). "Merkel's CDU Savors Local Election Win". Deutsche Welle . Retrieved 27 March 2017.
9. Carrel, Paul; Erdem, Hakan (26 March 2017). "Merkel's Conservatives Win Saarland Vote in Boost for National Campaign". Reuters . Retrieved 27 March 2017.
10. Smale, Alison (26 March 2017). "Angela Merkel's Re-election Bid Is Buoyed by Widely Watched State Election". The New York Times . Retrieved 27 March 2017.
11. Carrel, Paul (27 March 2017). "Germany's 'Schulz Effect' Fails to Deliver in First Election Test". U.S. News & World Report (from Reuters). Retrieved 27 March 2017.
12. "Saarland: CDU und SPD unterschreiben Koalitionsvertrag".