2022 Saarland state election

Last updated
2022 Saarland state election
Flag of Saarland.svg
  2017 27 March 2022 2027  

All 51 seats in the Landtag of Saarland
26 seats needed for a majority
Turnout458,223 (61.4% Decrease2.svg 8.3pp)
 First partySecond partyThird party
 
2022-03-27 Wahlabend Saarland by Sandro Halank-061.jpg
Tobias Hans-6779.jpg
AfD
Candidate Anke Rehlinger Tobias Hans None [lower-alpha 1]
Party SPD CDU AfD
Last election17 seats, 29.6%24 seats, 40.7%3 seats, 6.2%
Seats won29193
Seat changeIncrease2.svg 12Decrease2.svg 5Steady2.svg 0
Popular vote196,801129,15425,719
Percentage43.5%28.5%5.7%
SwingIncrease2.svg 13.9ppDecrease2.svg 12.2ppDecrease2.svg 0.5pp

 Fourth partyFifth partySixth party
 
2022-03-27 Wahlabend Saarland by Sandro Halank-080.jpg
2022-03-27 Wahlabend Saarland by Sandro Halank-038.jpg
2022-03-27 Wahlabend Saarland by Sandro Halank-070.jpg
Candidate Lisa Becker Angelika Hießerich-Peter Barbara Spaniol
Party Greens FDP Left
Last election0 seats, 4.0%0 seats, 3.3%7 seats, 12.8%
Seats won000
Seat changeSteady2.svgSteady2.svgDecrease2.svg 7
Popular vote22,59821,61811,689
Percentage4.995%4.8%2.6%
SwingIncrease2.svg 1.0ppIncrease2.svg 1.5ppDecrease2.svg 10.3pp

2022 Saarland State Election.svg
Results of the election

Government before election

Hans cabinet
CDUSPD

Government after election

Rehlinger cabinet
SPD

The 2022 Saarland state election was held on 27 March 2022 to elect the 17th Landtag of Saarland. The outgoing government was a coalition of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Social Democratic Party (SPD) led by Minister-President Tobias Hans.

Contents

The election was won by the SPD in a historic landslide, capturing a majority in the Landtag and winning at least a plurality in all municipalities of Saarland, largely attributed to the personal popularity of longtime Deputy Minister-President Anke Rehlinger. This election was the first time since the 2017 North Rhine-Westphalia state election that an incumbent Minister-President was defeated for re-election, with the largest margin of defeat since the 2011 Hamburg state election, the first time since the 2013 Bavarian state election that a party received an absolute majority in a Landtag, [1] as well as the first time since 1994 that the SPD did so in the Saarland.

Overall, the SPD won 43.5% of votes to the CDU's 28.5%, a swing of fifteen percentage points between them. The Left lost all their seats after suffering a decline of ten points. The Alternative for Germany became the only minor party in the Landtag with just under 6%, while The Greens fell just 23 votes short of the 5% electoral threshold to win seats. The Free Democratic Party also failed to enter the Landtag with 4.8%. A total of 22.3% of votes did not translate into seats due to the electoral threshold, a record high in any state election. [2]

Election date

The Landtag is elected for five years, with its term commencing when the new Landtag first meets. [3] As the previous election took place on 26 March 2017, the next election was required to take place before April 2022.

Electoral system

The 51 members of the Landtag are elected via closed list proportional representation using the d'Hondt method. 41 seats are distributed in three multi-member constituencies, and the remaining ten at the state level. [4] An electoral threshold of 5% of valid votes is applied to the Landtag; parties that fall below this threshold are ineligible to receive seats. [3]

Background

In the previous election held on 26 March 2017, the CDU remained the largest party with 40.7% of votes cast, an increase of 5.5 percentage points. The SPD declined slightly to 29.6%. The Left fell to 12.8%, a decline of 3.3 points. Alternative for Germany (AfD) contested its first election in Saarland, winning 6.2%. The Greens lost their representation in the Landtag with a result of 4.0%.

The CDU had led a grand coalition with the SPD since 2012 under Minister-President Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, which was renewed after the election. Kramp-Karrenbauer resigned as Minister-President after her, ultimately unsuccessful, entry into federal politics in February 2018, and was succeeded by Tobias Hans as Minister-President in March and as state CDU leader in October 2018.

Even though the Saarland is the second smallest state by population and does not represent Germany as a whole demographically, the election proved to be of pivotal importance to the following state elections and in particular the federal election later that year. New SPD lead candidate Martin Schulz led the party to a resurgence nationally in early 2017, and polls showed the SPD within striking distance of winning in Saarland. However, the clear CDU victory marked the beginning of a decline on both the federal level and in other states. This resulted in heavy losses for the SPD in Schleswig-Holstein, in North Rhine-Westphalia and, ultimately, in the 2017 German federal election. Similarly, the 2022 election was seen as a test both for the ruling Scholz cabinet and new CDU leader Friedrich Merz, and would set the tone for several more state elections throughout the year.

Until July 2021, the CDU had a solid lead in opinion polling. However, following the decline of the CDU on the federal level, the SPD surged ahead, cemented by the personal popularity of longtime Deputy Minister-President Anke Rehlinger.

Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the 16th Landtag of Saarland.

NameIdeologyLead
candidate
2017 resultAt dissolution
Votes (%)Seats
CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands
Christian democracy Tobias Hans 40.7%
24 / 51
24 / 51
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands
Social democracy Anke Rehlinger 29.6%
17 / 51
17 / 51
Linke The Left
Die Linke
Democratic socialism Barbara Spaniol 12.8%
7 / 51
5 / 51
AfD Alternative for Germany
Alternative für Deutschland
Right-wing populism N/A [lower-alpha 1] 6.2%
3 / 51
2 / 51
Independents
0 / 51
1 / 51

In addition to the parties already represented in the Landtag, fourteen parties collected enough signatures to be placed on the ballot. [5]

Lead candidates

The Left

Since at least 2017, the Saarland branch of The Left was embroiled into a dispute between Thomas Lutze, state treasurer from 2013 to 2017 and chairman since 2019, and Oskar Lafontaine, parliamentary leader since 2009. Lutze was accused of manipulating internal party elections by forging documents and fraudulently paying membership dues. [6] Public audits from 2017 to 2020 and a federal review in 2021 provided no evidence of irregularities. [7] The Saarbrücken public prosecutor's office began an investigation into Lutze in March 2021, but the case was dropped in January 2022. [8] [9]

In May 2021, the state executive requested that Lafontaine and former state chairwoman Astrid Schramm resign from the party, accusing them of being "the driving force behind the internal mudslinging that has been going on for years at the party's expense". They refused. [10] After the federal election in September, Lafontaine announced that he would not seek re-election to the Landtag in the upcoming state election. [11]

On 2 November 2021, deputy state chairwoman Barbara Spaniol was expelled from the Left parliamentary faction, accused of "supporting the public attacks by the state chairman against the Left faction". [12] On 10 November, she founded the Saar-Linke parliamentary group with Dagmar Ensch-Engel, who had previously resigned from the Left faction in 2018 after facing pressure from the Lafontaine camp. [6] [13] On 21 November, Spaniol was elected as The Left's lead candidate for the state election, winning 85.1% support. [14] [15]

AfD

In January 2022, the Alternative for Germany's state list was withdrawn by the party trustees shortly before the deadline for candidate submissions passed. Two members of the party's state executive had arbitrarily switched out the trustees, who then withdrew the list. State chairman Christian Wirth alleged that the four members involved did not support the proposed lead candidate Kai Melling. The party still competed in all three regional constituencies, which together provided 41 of the 51 members of the Landtag. However, due to the lack of a state list, the AfD was without a lead candidate. [16]

Greens

At the Alliance 90/The Greens state congress on 7 January 2022, Lisa Becker was elected as lead candidate for the state election. She was one of three candidates alongside state chairwoman Uta Sullenberger and Kiymet Goektas; the former withdrew before the ballot and Becker defeated Goektas with 110 votes to 80. [17]

FDP

Angelika Hießerich-Peter was elected as the FDP's lead candidate for the election, winning 79% of votes at a party congress. [18]

Opinion polling

Graphical summary

Opinion polls Saarland 2022.svg
Local regression of polls conducted.

Party polling

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
CDU SPD Linke AfD Grüne FDP FW bunt.
saar
OthersLead
2022 state election 27 Mar 202228.543.52.65.75.04.81.71.46.815.0
Wahlkreisprognose 21–25 Mar 2022940284146.555.51013
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 21–24 Mar 20222,375284146.55.551013
Wahlkreisprognose 15–18 Mar 202297830383.5655.5128
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 15–17 Mar 20221,02430394665109
INSA 14–17 Mar 20221,00031394655108
Infratest dimap 14–16 Mar 20221,42131374655396
Wahlkreisprognose 3–8 Mar 20221,2193035.55.58.576.5165.5
Infratest dimap 8–12 Feb 20221,1752938586689
Wahlkreisprognose 1–7 Feb 20221,5043334576.56.5441
INSA 17–24 Jan 20221,0023035778675
Wahlkreisprognose 15–24 Dec 20211,00433.538476632.54.5
Infratest dimap 16–20 Nov 20211,1652833698885
Wahlkreisprognose 2–11 Nov 202129384.585933.59
2021 federal election 26 Sep 202123.637.37.210.011.52.08.513.7
Wahlkreisprognose 14–22 Jul 20213729867.557.58
INSA 5–19 Jul 20211,0483627769789
Wahlkreisprognose 18–25 May 202124.521119.517.5754.53.5
INSA 3–10 May 20211,0523121146157610
Infratest dimap 2–7 Nov 20201,0004022118123418
Wahlkreisprognose 22–29 Jun 202045335.5463.5512
Wahlkreisprognose 10–22 Apr 202040.532.57754.53.58
INSA 19 Nov–2 Dec 20191,0003624117154312
2019 EP election 26 May 201932.523.16.09.613.23.71.112.09.6
Infratest dimap 29 Apr–6 May 20191,0003725128114312
Infratest dimap 14–19 Jun 20181,000352612156429
2017 federal election 24 Sep 201732.427.112.910.16.07.60.83.05.3
2017 state election 26 Mar 201740.729.612.86.24.03.30.43.011.1

Minister-President polling

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Tobias Hans-6779.jpg 2017-03-26 Anke Rehlinger by Sandro Halank-4.jpg None/UnsureLead
Hans
CDU
Rehlinger
SPD
Wahlkreisprognose 21–25 Mar 20229403359826
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 21–24 Mar 20222,37530571327
Wahlkreisprognose 15–18 Mar 202297831551424
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 15–17 Mar 20221,02431521721
Infratest dimap 14–16 Mar 20221,42133491816
Wahlkreisprognose 3–8 Mar 20221,21935.549.51514
Wahlkreisprognose 1–7 Feb 20221,5044346113
Wahlkreisprognose 15–24 Dec 20211,0044244142
Infratest dimap 16–20 Nov 20211,1653942193
Infratest dimap 2–11 Nov 20201,00052321620
Infratest dimap 8 May 20191,0003937242

Party competences

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Category CDU SPD Linke AfD Grüne FDP Others/NoneLead
Infratest dimap 16–20 Nov 20211,165
Economy27333528186
Education26324436216
Jobs243835271814
Asylum24264963232
Health Care243445442110
Transport22313386239
Social justice1542115331827
Environment1221343441813
Solving Biggest Problems243535342011
Infratest dimap 2–11 Nov 20201,000Corona551422202241
Homeland security491358212036
Economy482351351425
Finances441572222629
Jobs402982241311
Health Care402761311913
Education34268153208
Integration302363102227
Family253782801612
Public transport202560221223
Social justice1935213511414
Environment1311315711244
Solving Biggest Problems411983521922

Results

2022 Saarland state election - composition chart.svg
PartyVotes %SwingSeats+/–
Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD)196,80143.5Increase2.svg 13.929Increase2.svg 12
Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU)129,15428.5Decrease2.svg 12.219Decrease2.svg 5
Alternative for Germany (AfD)25,7195.7Decrease2.svg 0.53Steady2.svg 0
Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE)22,5984.995Increase2.svg 1.00Steady2.svg 0
Free Democratic Party (FDP)21,6184.8Increase2.svg 1.50Steady2.svg 0
The Left (LINKE)11,6892.6Decrease2.svg 10.30Decrease2.svg 7
Human Environment Animal Protection Party 10,3912.3New0New
Free Voters 7,6361.7Increase2.svg 1.30Steady2.svg 0
Grassroots Democratic Party of Germany 6,4481.4New0New
Bunt.saar – social-ecological list6,2161.4New0New
Die PARTEI 4,7161.0New0New
Family Party of Germany 3,8360.8Steady2.svg 0.00Steady2.svg 0
Volt Germany 2,6450.6New0New
Pirate Party Germany 1,3180.3Decrease2.svg 0.50Steady2.svg 0
Ecological Democratic Party 6130.1New0New
SGV – Solidarity, Justice, Change4120.1New0New
Party for Health Research 3680.1New0New
Die Humanisten 2330.1New0New
Valid452,41198.8
Invalid5,7021.2
Total458,113100.051Steady2.svg 0
Registered voters/turnout746,30761.4Decrease2.svg 8.3
Source: State Returning Officer

Aftermath

Minister-President Tobias Hans conceded defeat on the evening of the election and claimed responsibility for the result. [19] Due to her party securing an absolute majority, Anke Rehlinger expressed her intent to govern without a coalition. [20]

Rehlinger was elected as Minister-President by the Landtag on 25 April, winning 32 votes out of 51 cast. [21]

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References

  1. 1 2 The AfD did not submit a valid state list for the election, meaning it did not have a statewide lead candidate.
  2. The Left faction was reduced to six members after the resignation of Dagmar Ensch-Engel in August 2018, then to five after the expulsion of Barbara Spaniol in November 2021. Ensch-Engel and Spaniol formed the Saar-Linke parliamentary faction in November 2021, but remain members of The Left.
  1. "Germany: SPD maintains winning streak in Saarland vote". Deutsche Welle . 27 March 2022.
  2. "A hurdle for democracy". Die Tageszeitung (in German). 28 March 2022.
  3. 1 2 "Constitution of Saarland" (PDF) (in German). Landtag of Saarland. Retrieved 20 April 2021.
  4. "Electoral system of Saarland" (in German). Wahlrecht.de. Retrieved 30 April 2021.
  5. "Notice of the approved district and state electoral lists for the election to the 17th Landtag of Saarland on 27 March 2022" (PDF). Saarland.de (in German). 7 February 2022.
  6. 1 2 "Allegations of manipulation by The Left: the Saar crime scene". Der Spiegel (in German). 2 August 2018.
  7. "Ex-Left leader Schramm reports party leader Lutze". Saarbrücker Zeitung (in German). 16 December 2020.
  8. "Public prosecutor's office investigates Left MdB Thomas Lutze". Der Spiegel (in German). 18 March 2021.
  9. "Forgery? Police report exonerates Left boss Lutze – but burdens a party colleague". Saarbrücker Zeitung (in German). 13 January 2022.
  10. "Showdown in years-long Left power struggle". Saarländischer Rundfunk (in German). 6 June 2021.
  11. "Lafontaine is no longer running for the Landtag". Saarländischer Rundfunk (in German). 27 September 2021.
  12. "Left faction in Saarland excludes Barbara Spaniol". Die Zeit (in German). 2 November 2021.
  13. "After being expelled from the Saarbrücken left-wing faction, Barbara Spaniol founds her own faction". Neues Deutschland (in German). 11 November 2021.
  14. "Spaniol is The Left's top candidate". Saarländischer Rundfunk (in German). 21 November 2021.
  15. "Barbara Spaniol elected top candidate of the Saar Left". Saarbrücker Zeitung (in German). 21 November 2021.
  16. "State elections in Saarland: AfD must compete without a state list". Der Spiegel (in German). 21 January 2021.
  17. "Lisa Becker leads the Greens Saar in the state election campaign". Saarnews (in German). 7 January 2022.
  18. "State elections in Saarland 2022: These are the top candidates of the parties". Saarbrücker Zeitung (in German). 23 March 2022.
  19. "SPD brings landslide victory in Saarland". Saarländischer Rundfunk (in German). 27 March 2022.
  20. "SPD will im Saarland alleine regieren" [SPD wants to govern alone in Saarland]. Saarländischer Rundfunk (in German). 28 March 2022. Retrieved 29 March 2022.
  21. "Rehlinger elected Minister-President". ZDF (in German). 25 April 2022.