2020 Hamburg state election

2020 Hamburg state election

←  2015 23 February 2020 [1] 2025  →
All 123 seats in the Hamburg Parliament 62 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	4,054,861 (63.2%) 6.7%
First party Second party Third party   Leader Peter Tschentscher Katharina Fegebank Marcus Weinberg Party SPD Greens CDU Last election 58 seats, 45.6% 15 seats, 12.3% 20 seats, 15.9% Seats won 54 33 15 Seat change 4 18 5 Popular vote 1,591,098 980,361 452,372 Percentage 39.2% 24.2% 11.2% Swing 6.4% 11.9% 4.7%   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Cansu Özdemir Dirk Nockemann Anna-Elisabeth von Treuenfels-Frowein Party Left AfD FDP Last election 11 seats, 8.5% 8 seats, 6.1% 9 seats, 7.4% Seats won 13 7 1 Seat change 2 1 8 Popular vote 368,471 214,596 201,162 Percentage 9.1% 5.3% 4.9% Swing 0.6% 0.8% 2.5%
Government before election First Tschentscher senate SPD–Green Government after election Second Tschentscher senate SPD–Green

The 2020 Hamburg state election was held on 23 February 2020 to elect the members of the 22nd Hamburg Parliament. The outgoing government was a coalition of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and The Greens led by First Mayor Peter Tschentscher.

Despite losses, the SPD remained comfortably in first place with 39% of votes. The Greens doubled their vote share to 24%, becoming the second largest party in the state Parliament for the first time. ^[2] The opposition Christian Democratic Union (CDU) suffered their worst ever result in Hamburg, and their worst result in any state election since 1952, falling to third place with 11% of votes. ^[3] The Left achieved a small upswing and remained in fourth place. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) narrowly cleared the 5% electoral threshold, recording a decline compared to its previous result for the first time in any state or national-level election. The Free Democratic Party lost a third of its vote share and fell narrowly short of the 5% electoral threshold, in total winning only one seat from a direct constituency.

The SPD–Green government was returned with an increased majority of 87 seats, comprising 71% of the Parliament. The coalition was subsequently renewed. ^[4] Peter Tschentscher was re-elected Mayor on 10 June. ^[5]

Issues and campaign

Federal

The Hamburg state election was overshadowed by the Thuringia government crisis, ^[6] the resignation of Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer as federal CDU leader, ^[7] and a terrorist attack targeting immigrants in Hanau which took place four days before the election.

Local

In the wake of the Thuringia government crisis, approximately 20% of the FDP's election posters in Hamburg were defaced or destroyed. Greens leader Katharina Fegebank stated that such actions "harmed democracy". ^{[8] [9]}

Electoral system

The elections were conducted under a list proportional system in the same manner as the prior election. 71 seats were awarded directly in the 17 multi-mandate constituencies (of between 3-5 seats each) via open constituency lists, and the remaining 50 via at-large open state lists (German : landesliste) based on percentage of the overall vote with a 5% electoral threshold.

Each voter had a total of ten votes: five constituency votes for the direct candidates in the constituency, and five at-large votes for candidates on the state lists (or for state lists in their entirety). The five votes could be amassed all on one person, party, or list (accumulation) or could be distributed/split between different candidates, parties, or lists as desired (panachage). Voting privileges were passively awarded, meaning anyone over the age of 18 meeting eligibility requirements was automatically enrolled.

Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the 21st Hamburg Parliament.

Name			Ideology	Leader(s)	2015 result
					Votes (%)	Seats
	SPD	Social Democratic Party of Germany Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands	Social democracy	Peter Tschentscher	45.6%	58 / 121
	CDU	Christian Democratic Union of Germany Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands	Christian democracy	Marcus Weinberg	15.9%	20 / 121
	Grüne	Alliance 90/The Greens Bündnis 90/Die Grünen	Green politics	Katharina Fegebank	12.3%	15 / 121
	Linke	The Left Die Linke	Democratic socialism	Cansu Özdemir	8.5%	11 / 121
	FDP	Free Democratic Party Freie Demokratische Partei	Classical liberalism	Anna-Elisabeth von Treuenfels-Frowein	7.4%	9 / 121
	AfD	Alternative for Germany Alternative für Deutschland	German nationalism Right-wing populism	Dirk Nockemann	6.1%	8 / 121

Opinion polling

Graph of opinion polls conducted, trendlines are local regressions (LOESS)

   CDU

   SPD

   AfD

   Green

   FDP

   Left

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	SPD	CDU	Grüne	Linke	FDP	AfD	Others	Lead
2020 state election	23 Feb 2020	–	39.2	11.2	24.2	9.1	4.9	5.3	6.1	15.0
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	19–20 Feb 2020	1,184	39	12	24	8.5	5	6	5.5	15
INSA	12–17 Feb 2020	1,006	38	13	23	8	5	7	6	15
Universität Hamburg	2 Jan–14 Feb 2020	1,004	34	12	32	7	6	5	5	2
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	11–13 Feb 2020	1,128	37	13	25	8	4.5	7	5.5	12
Infratest dimap	10–12 Feb 2020	1,003	38	14	23	8	5	6	6	15
Infratest dimap	30 Jan–4 Feb 2020	1,000	34	14	27	8	5	7	5	7
Trend Research Hamburg	24–29 Jan 2020	672	33	14	24	10	7	7	5	9
Infratest dimap	16–21 Jan 2020	1,002	32	16	27	8	6	7	4	5
Infratest dimap	2–7 Jan 2020	1,000	29	15	29	9	7	7	4	Tie
Forsa	18 Dec 2019–2 Jan 2020	1,009	29	16	26	10	7	7	5	3
Trend Research Hamburg	27–31 Dec 2019	678	32	13	23	13	8	8	4	9
Civey	22 Nov–20 Dec 2019	2,041	30.4	13.6	24.1	13.7	7.4	7.5	3.3	6.3
Infratest dimap	11–16 Dec 2019	1,004	28	17	26	11	6	7	5	2
Trend Research Hamburg	5–10 Nov 2019	652	32	13	23	12	7	8	4	9
INSA	23 Oct–4 Nov 2019	1,020	25	17	26	12	8	8	4	1
Trend Research Hamburg	6–11 Sep 2019	618	28	14	28	11	6	9	4	Tie
2019 European election	26 May 2019	–	19.8	17.7	31.2	7.0	5.6	6.5	12.2	11.4
pmg – policy matters	6–16 May 2019	1,002	30	16	22	11	9	10	2	8
Universität Hamburg	6 Jan–2 Mar 2019	1,069	35	15	29	9	6	4	3	6
Infratest dimap	18–21 Feb 2019	1,005	31	17	22	10	8	8	4	9
Forsa	27 Dec 2018–3 Jan 2019	1,004	30	14	24	11	9	7	5	6
Forsa	19 Mar–4 Apr 2018	1,001	36	16	18	12	7	7	4	18
pmg – policy matters	23 Feb–2 Mar 2018	1,025	28	22	15	14	8	10	3	6
2017 federal election	24 Sep 2017	–	23.5	27.2	13.9	12.2	10.8	7.8	4.5	3.7
Universität Hamburg	8 Sep–17 Nov 2016	1,004	48	18	16	8	5	4	2	30
Infratest dimap	31 Mar–5 Apr 2016	1,000	39	18	15	11	6	8	3	21
Trend Research Hamburg	14–18 Jan 2016	759	37	14	13	10	8	13	5	23
2015 state election	15 Feb 2015	–	45.6	15.9	12.3	8.5	7.4	6.1	4.2	29.7

Election result

Strongest party by district.

At one polling booth in Langenhorn, the results for the FDP and Greens were accidentally reversed, meaning the preliminary results placed the FDP only 121 votes above the threshold. The mistake was corrected in the official count which took place over 24 hours later. ^[10] Exit polls suggested that AfD would miss the threshold while FDP would exceed it, leading to early press reports of an AfD defeat and exclusion of its politicians from post-election debates. ^[11]

Summary of the 23 February 2020 election results for the Hamburg Parliament

Party		Votes	%	+/-pp	Seats	+/-	Seats %
	Social Democratic Party (SPD)	1,591,098	39.2	6.4	54	4	43.9
	Alliance 90/The Greens (Grüne)	980,361	24.2	11.9	33	18	26.8
	Christian Democratic Union (CDU)	452,372	11.2	3.7	15	5	12.2
	The Left (Linke)	368,471	9.1	0.6	13	2	10.6
	Alternative for Germany (AfD)	214,596	5.3	0.8	7	1	5.7
	Free Democratic Party (FDP)	201,162	4.9	2.5	1	8	0.8
	Die PARTEI (PARTEI)	56,775	1.4	0.5	0	±0	0
	Volt Germany (VOLT)	52,241	1.3	1.3	0	±0	0
	Others	137,785	3.4		0	±0	0
Total		4,054,861	100.0		123	2
Voter turnout			63.2	6.7

Popular vote SPD   39.24% B'90/GRÜNE   24.18% CDU   11.16% DIE LINKE   9.09% AfD   5.29% FDP   4.96% Other   6.09%

Bürgerschaft seats SPD   43.90% B'90/GRÜNE   26.83% CDU   12.20% DIE LINKE   10.57% AfD   5.69% FDP   0.81%

Government formation

Mayor Tschentscher stated that exploratory talks with the Greens were "the first priority", but that "we will also - if the majorities are confirmed - approach the CDU and hold a conversation." Marcus Weinberg of the CDU stated he was "ready for talks" with the SPD. Lead candidate for the Greens Katharina Fegebank called for "More red-green, with strong greens in the government." Cansu Özdemir of The Left stated her party wished to remain a strong opposition force. ^[12]

The SPD and Greens came to a coalition agreement at the end of May. The SPD took 7 ministries and the Greens 4, a net gain of one for the Greens. ^[4] The vote for Mayor took place on 10 June, and Tschentscher was re-elected Mayor with 87 votes in favour, 34 against, and 2 abstentions. The new cabinet was also approved with 83 votes in favour, 38 against, and 2 abstentions. ^[5]

See also

• Elections in Hamburg
• Hamburg state elections in the Weimar Republic

References

1. "Hamburger: Am 23. Februar 2020 neue Bürgerschaft wählen". Archived from the original on 2019-05-05. Retrieved 2019-05-05.
2. "Merkel 'slumps in Hamburg as Greens surge'". BBC News. 2020-02-23. Retrieved 2020-02-24.
3. "Merkel's CDU suffers worst ever result in Hamburg elections". The Guardian. Reuters. 2020-02-23. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved 2020-02-24.
4. "Regierungbildung in Hamburg: Grüne benennen Senatoren". NDR.de. 31 May 2020.
5. "Bürgerschaft wählt Tschentscher und bestätigt Senat". Ndr.de. 10 June 2020.
6. "Germany's FDP to seek dissolution of Thuringia state assembly: source". Reuters. 2020-02-06. Retrieved 2020-02-24.
7. "Merkel's crisis-hit CDU launches leadership race". Yahoo News. 2020-02-24. Retrieved 2020-02-24.
8. "Hass-Welle gegen FDP 800 Zerstörte Plakate und Parteiaustritte in Hamburg (in German)". Hamburger Morgenpost. 2020-02-10. Retrieved 2020-02-24.
9. "Bereits 800 FDP-Wahlplakate in Hamburg zerstört (in German)". Welt. 2020-02-24. Retrieved 2020-02-24.
10. "Hamburg-Wahl 2020: Katastrophe für FDP besiegelt - Merz spricht von „Desaster" für CDU (in German)". Merkur.de. 2020-02-24. Retrieved 2020-02-24.
11. "Hamburger Bürgerschaftswahl: Darum lagen die Prognosen für die AfD so daneben (in German)". Welt. 2020-02-24. Retrieved 2020-02-24.
12. "Was sagen Hamburger Politiker zum Wahlausgang?". NDR.de. 23 February 2020.