2020 Hamburg state election

Last updated
2020 Hamburg state election
Flag of Hamburg.svg
  2015 23 February 2020 [1] 2025  

All 123 seats in the Hamburg Parliament
62 seats needed for a majority
Turnout4,054,861 (63.2%)
Increase2.svg 6.7%
 First partySecond partyThird party
 
2019-07-06 BeachVolleyball Weltmeisterschaft Hamburg 2019 StP 0537 LR10 by Stepro.jpg
Fegebank 19 (cropped).jpeg
Weinberg, Marcus-1417.jpg
Leader Peter Tschentscher Katharina Fegebank Marcus Weinberg
Party SPD Greens CDU
Last election58 seats, 45.6%15 seats, 12.3%20 seats, 15.9%
Seats won543315
Seat changeDecrease2.svg 4Increase2.svg18Decrease2.svg 5
Popular vote1,591,098980,361452,372
Percentage39.2%24.2%11.2%
SwingDecrease2.svg 6.4%Increase2.svg 11.9%Decrease2.svg 4.7%

 Fourth partyFifth partySixth party
 
2018-09-26 Cansu Ozdemir (WLP Hamburg) by Sandro Halank-3.jpg
2025-03-02 Wahlabend Hamburg by Sandro Halank-039.jpg
Anna von Treuenfels-Frowein, Hamburgische Burgerschaft.jpg
Leader Cansu Özdemir Dirk Nockemann Anna-Elisabeth von Treuenfels-Frowein
Party Left AfD FDP
Last election11 seats, 8.5%8 seats, 6.1%9 seats, 7.4%
Seats won1371
Seat changeIncrease2.svg 2Decrease2.svg 1Decrease2.svg 8
Popular vote368,471214,596201,162
Percentage9.1%5.3%4.9%
SwingIncrease2.svg 0.6%Decrease2.svg 0.8%Decrease2.svg 2.5%

Hamburger Burgerschaftswahl 2020 Wahlkreisgewinner.svg

Government before election

First Tschentscher senate
SPD–Green

Government after election

Second Tschentscher senate
SPD–Green

The 2020 Hamburg state election was held on 23 February 2020 to elect the members of the 22nd Hamburg Parliament. The outgoing government was a coalition of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and The Greens led by First Mayor Peter Tschentscher.

Contents

Despite losses, the SPD remained comfortably in first place with 39% of votes. The Greens doubled their vote share to 24%, becoming the second largest party in the state Parliament for the first time. [2] The opposition Christian Democratic Union (CDU) suffered their worst ever result in Hamburg, and their worst result in any state election since 1952, falling to third place with 11% of votes. [3] The Left achieved a small upswing and remained in fourth place. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) narrowly cleared the 5% electoral threshold, recording a decline compared to its previous result for the first time in any state or national-level election. The Free Democratic Party lost a third of its vote share and fell narrowly short of the 5% electoral threshold, in total winning only one seat from a direct constituency.

The SPD–Green government was returned with an increased majority of 87 seats, comprising 71% of the Parliament. The coalition was subsequently renewed. [4] Peter Tschentscher was re-elected Mayor on 10 June. [5]

Issues and campaign

Federal

The Hamburg state election was overshadowed by the Thuringia government crisis, [6] the resignation of Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer as federal CDU leader, [7] and a terrorist attack targeting immigrants in Hanau which took place four days before the election.

Local

In the wake of the Thuringia government crisis, approximately 20% of the FDP's election posters in Hamburg were defaced or destroyed. Greens leader Katharina Fegebank stated that such actions "harmed democracy". [8] [9]

Electoral system

The elections were conducted under a list proportional system in the same manner as the prior election. 71 seats were awarded directly in the 17 multi-mandate constituencies (of between 3-5 seats each) via open constituency lists, and the remaining 50 via at-large open state lists (German : landesliste) based on percentage of the overall vote with a 5% electoral threshold.

Each voter had a total of ten votes: five constituency votes for the direct candidates in the constituency, and five at-large votes for candidates on the state lists (or for state lists in their entirety). The five votes could be amassed all on one person, party, or list (accumulation) or could be distributed/split between different candidates, parties, or lists as desired (panachage). Voting privileges were passively awarded, meaning anyone over the age of 16 meeting eligibility requirements was automatically enrolled.

Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the 21st Hamburg Parliament.

NameIdeologyLeader(s)2015 result
Votes (%)Seats
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands
Social democracy Peter Tschentscher 45.6%
58 / 121
CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands
Christian democracy Marcus Weinberg 15.9%
20 / 121
Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
Green politics Katharina Fegebank 12.3%
15 / 121
Linke The Left
Die Linke
Democratic socialism Cansu Özdemir 8.5%
11 / 121
FDP Free Democratic Party
Freie Demokratische Partei
Classical liberalism Anna-Elisabeth von Treuenfels-Frowein 7.4%
9 / 121
AfD Alternative for Germany
Alternative für Deutschland
German nationalism
Right-wing populism
Dirk Nockemann 6.1%
8 / 121

Opinion polling

Graph of opinion polls conducted, trendlines are local regressions (LOESS)
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CDU
SPD
AfD
Green
FDP
Left Opinion polling for the 2020 Hamburg state election.svg
Graph of opinion polls conducted, trendlines are local regressions (LOESS)
   CDU
   SPD
   AfD
   Green
   FDP
   Left
Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
SPD CDU Grüne Linke FDP AfD OthersLead
2020 state election 23 Feb 202039.211.224.29.14.95.36.115.0
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 19–20 Feb 20201,1843912248.5565.515
INSA 12–17 Feb 20201,006381323857615
Universität Hamburg 2 Jan–14 Feb 20201,00434123276552
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 11–13 Feb 20201,12837132584.575.512
Infratest dimap 10–12 Feb 20201,003381423856615
Infratest dimap 30 Jan–4 Feb 20201,00034142785757
Trend Research Hamburg 24–29 Jan 2020672331424107759
Infratest dimap 16–21 Jan 20201,00232162786745
Infratest dimap 2–7 Jan 20201,0002915299774Tie
Forsa 18 Dec 2019–2 Jan 20201,009291626107753
Trend Research Hamburg 27–31 Dec 2019678321323138849
Civey 22 Nov–20 Dec 20192,04130.413.624.113.77.47.53.36.3
Infratest dimap 11–16 Dec 20191,004281726116752
Trend Research Hamburg 5–10 Nov 2019652321323127849
INSA 23 Oct–4 Nov 20191,020251726128841
Trend Research Hamburg 6–11 Sep 201961828142811694Tie
2019 European election 26 May 201919.817.731.27.05.66.512.211.4
pmg – policy matters 6–16 May 20191,0023016221191028
Universität Hamburg 6 Jan–2 Mar 20191,06935152996436
Infratest dimap 18–21 Feb 20191,005311722108849
Forsa 27 Dec 2018–3 Jan 20191,004301424119756
Forsa 19 Mar–4 Apr 20181,0013616181277418
pmg – policy matters 23 Feb–2 Mar 20181,0252822151481036
2017 federal election 24 Sep 201723.527.213.912.210.87.84.53.7
Universität Hamburg 8 Sep–17 Nov 20161,004481816854230
Infratest dimap 31 Mar–5 Apr 20161,0003918151168321
Trend Research Hamburg 14–18 Jan 201675937141310813523
2015 state election 15 Feb 201545.615.912.38.57.46.14.229.7

Election result

Strongest party by district. 2020 Hamburg state election - Results.svg
Strongest party by district.

At one polling booth in Langenhorn, the results for the FDP and Greens were accidentally reversed, meaning the preliminary results placed the FDP only 121 votes above the threshold. The mistake was corrected in the official count which took place over 24 hours later. [10] Exit polls suggested that AfD would miss the threshold while FDP would exceed it, leading to early press reports of an AfD defeat and exclusion of its politicians from post-election debates. [11]

2020 Hamburg state election - composition chart.svg
PartyConstituency listStatewide listTotal
seats
+/–
Votes%SeatsVotes%Seats
Social Democratic Party 1,403,35134.94281,593,82539.232654Decrease2.svg 4
Alliance 90/The Greens 1,032,82625.7120981,62824.161333Increase2.svg 18
Christian Democratic Union 605,27315.0715453,71711.17015Decrease2.svg 5
The Left 446,60011.127368,6839.08613Increase2.svg 2
Alternative for Germany 217,2015.410215,3065.3077Decrease2.svg 1
Free Democratic Party 220,0315.481202,0594.9701Decrease2.svg 8
Die PARTEI 56,7551.4000Steady2.svg 0
Volt 25,5240.64052,3611.2900New
Ecological Democratic Party 25,9030.64027,6170.6800Steady2.svg 0
Human Environment Animal Protection Party 27,2000.6700Steady2.svg 0
Free Voters 16,3570.41025,0230.6200Steady2.svg 0
Action Party for Animal Welfare 21,5300.5300New
Pirate Party 17,5750.44020,5590.5100Steady2.svg 0
Party of Humanists 8,3540.2100Steady2.svg 0
Party for Rejuvenation Research 7,7590.1900Steady2.svg 0
Democracy in Motion 2,8080.0700New
Human World 1,7020.0400Steady2.svg 0
Independents [a] 1,0670.0300Steady2.svg 0
Social Liberal Democratic Movement 6530.0200New
Total4,016,871100.00714,062,376100.0052123
Valid votes4,016,87199.624,062,37699.79
Invalid/blank votes15,3890.388,7370.21
Total votes4,032,260100.004,071,113100.00
Registered voters/turnout63.063.0


Popular vote
SPD
39.24%
B'90/GRÜNE
24.18%
CDU
11.16%
DIE LINKE
9.09%
AfD
5.29%
FDP
4.96%
Other
6.09%
Bürgerschaft seats
SPD
43.90%
B'90/GRÜNE
26.83%
CDU
12.20%
DIE LINKE
10.57%
AfD
5.69%
FDP
0.81%

Government formation

Mayor Tschentscher stated that exploratory talks with the Greens were "the first priority", but that "we will also - if the majorities are confirmed - approach the CDU and hold a conversation." Marcus Weinberg of the CDU stated he was "ready for talks" with the SPD. Lead candidate for the Greens Katharina Fegebank called for "More red-green, with strong greens in the government." Cansu Özdemir of The Left stated her party wished to remain a strong opposition force. [12]

The SPD and Greens came to a coalition agreement at the end of May. The SPD took 7 ministries and the Greens 4, a net gain of one for the Greens. [4] The vote for Mayor took place on 10 June, and Tschentscher was re-elected Mayor with 87 votes in favour, 34 against, and 2 abstentions. The new cabinet was also approved with 83 votes in favour, 38 against, and 2 abstentions. [5]

See also

Notes

  1. Sedat Ayhan

References

  1. "Hamburger: Am 23. Februar 2020 neue Bürgerschaft wählen". Archived from the original on 2019-05-05. Retrieved 2019-05-05.
  2. "Merkel 'slumps in Hamburg as Greens surge'". BBC News. 2020-02-23. Retrieved 2020-02-24.
  3. "Merkel's CDU suffers worst ever result in Hamburg elections". The Guardian. Reuters. 2020-02-23. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved 2020-02-24.
  4. 1 2 "Regierungbildung in Hamburg: Grüne benennen Senatoren". NDR.de. 31 May 2020.
  5. 1 2 "Bürgerschaft wählt Tschentscher und bestätigt Senat". Ndr.de. 10 June 2020.
  6. "Germany's FDP to seek dissolution of Thuringia state assembly: source". Reuters. 2020-02-06. Retrieved 2020-02-24.
  7. "Merkel's crisis-hit CDU launches leadership race". Yahoo News. 2020-02-24. Retrieved 2020-02-24.
  8. "Hass-Welle gegen FDP 800 Zerstörte Plakate und Parteiaustritte in Hamburg (in German)". Hamburger Morgenpost. 2020-02-10. Retrieved 2020-02-24.
  9. "Bereits 800 FDP-Wahlplakate in Hamburg zerstört (in German)". Welt. 2020-02-24. Retrieved 2020-02-24.
  10. "Hamburg-Wahl 2020: Katastrophe für FDP besiegelt - Merz spricht von „Desaster" für CDU (in German)". Merkur.de. 2020-02-24. Retrieved 2020-02-24.
  11. "Hamburger Bürgerschaftswahl: Darum lagen die Prognosen für die AfD so daneben (in German)". Welt. 2020-02-24. Retrieved 2020-02-24.
  12. "Was sagen Hamburger Politiker zum Wahlausgang?". NDR.de. 23 February 2020.