2021 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election

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2021 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election
Flag of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.svg
  2016 26 September 2021 2026  

All 79 seats in the Landtag, including 8 overhang and leveling seats
40 seats needed for a majority
Turnout928,807 (70.8%) Increase2.svg 8.9pp
 First partySecond partyThird party
 
2017-06-25 Manuela Schwesig SPD Bundesparteitag by Olaf Kosinsky-16.jpg
2019-03-14 Nikolaus Kramer Landtag Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 6345.jpg
Portrait Michael Sack.jpg
Candidate Manuela Schwesig Nikolaus Kramer Michael Sack
Party SPD AfD CDU
Last election30.6%, 26 seats20.8%, 18 seats19.0%, 16 seats
Seats won341412
Seat changeIncrease2.svg 8Decrease2.svg 4Decrease2.svg 4
Popular vote361,769152,775121,583
Percentage39.6%16.7%13.3%
SwingIncrease2.svg 9.0ppDecrease2.svg 4.1ppDecrease2.svg 5.7pp

 Fourth partyFifth partySixth party
 
18-05-2017-Simone Oldenburg-JonasR.jpg
Anne Shepley MdL MV Fraktion Buendnis90-Die Grunen.png
Rene Domke.jpg
Candidate Simone Oldenburg Anne ShepleyRené Domke
Party Left Greens FDP
Last election13.2%, 11 seats4.8%, 0 seats3.0%, 0 seats
Seats won955
Seat changeDecrease2.svg 2Increase2.svg 5Increase2.svg 5
Popular vote90,88157,55452,963
Percentage9.9%6.3%5.8%
SwingDecrease2.svg 3.2ppIncrease2.svg 1.5ppIncrease2.svg 2.8pp

2021 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election.svg
Results for the single-member constituencies

Government before election

First Schwesig cabinet
SPDCDU

Government after election

Second Schwesig cabinet
SPDLeft

The 2021 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election was held on 26 September 2021 to elect the 8th Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. [1] The incumbent government is a coalition of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and Christian Democratic Union (CDU) led by Minister President Manuela Schwesig.

Contents

The SPD won a landslide plurality of almost 40% of votes, a nine percentage point increase from 2016. The opposition Alternative for Germany (AfD) remained the second largest party but declined to under 17%. The CDU recorded its worst ever result in the state with 13.3%, while The Left also declined to 10%. Alliance 90/The Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) both won around 6% of votes and re-entered the Landtag after previously falling out in 2016 and 2011, respectively. [2]

After the election, the SPD chose to form a coalition with The Left rather than renew their government with the CDU. Schwesig was re-elected as Minister-President on 15 November with 41 votes out of 79. [3]

Election date

The Landtag is elected for a period of five years in accordance with Article 27 of the Constitution of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. An election may be held between 58 and 61 months after the first sitting of the previous Landtag. As the 7th Landtag first sat on 4 October 2016, the election must be held between 4 August to 4 November 2021. It must take place on a Sunday. [4]

On 12 January 2021, the state government designated 26 September as the date of the election, [5] coinciding with the federal parliamentary election.

Electoral system

The Landtag is elected via mixed-member proportional representation. 36 members are elected in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post voting. 35 members are then allocated using compensatory proportional representation. Voters have two votes: the "first vote" for candidates in single-member constituencies, and the "second vote" for party lists, which are used to fill the proportional seats. The minimum size of the Landtag is 71 members, but if overhang seats are present, proportional leveling seats will be added to ensure proportionality. An electoral threshold of 5% of valid votes is applied to the Landtag; parties that fall below this threshold are excluded from the Landtag. [1]

Background

In the previous election held on 4 September 2016, the SPD remained the largest party with 30.6% of the vote, a loss of 5.0 percentage points. Alternative for Germany (AfD) contested their first election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, placing second with 20.8%. The CDU won 19.0%, a loss of 4.0 points, while The Left won 13.2%, a loss of 5.2 points.

The SPD–CDU coalition which had governed since 2006 retained its majority and was renewed for a third term.

Parties

The table below lists parties currently represented in the 7th Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.

NameIdeologyLead
candidate
Leader(s)2016 result
Votes (%)Seats
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands
Social democracy Manuela Schwesig Manuela Schwesig 30.6%
26 / 71
AfD Alternative for Germany
Alternative für Deutschland
Right-wing populism Nikolaus Kramer Leif-Erik Holm 20.8%
18 / 71
CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands
Christian democracy Michael Sack Michael Sack 18.0%
16 / 71
Linke The Left
Die Linke
Democratic socialism Simone Oldenburg Torsten Koplin
Wenke Brüdgam
13.2%
11 / 71

Campaign

Lead candidates

On 7 August 2020, the state CDU elected Michael Sack, district administrator of Vorpommern-Greifswald, as its new leader. He was also selected as the party's lead candidate for the 2021 state election. [6]

On 28 January 2021, parliamentary group leader Simone Oldenburg was nominated as lead candidate for The Left. [7]

Opinion polling

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
SPD AfD CDU Linke Grüne FDP OthersLead
2021 state election26 Sep 202139.616.713.39.96.35.88.422.9
INSA 20–24 Sep 20211,0584017131175723
Wahlkreisprognose 18–23 Sep 20211,004401613.510659.524
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 20–22 Sep 20211,0153916141175.57.523
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 13–16 Sep 20211,0283817151166721
INSA 10–16 Sep 20211,0644018121176622
Infratest dimap 13–15 Sep 20211,5334015151065925
Wahlkreisprognose 4–9 Sep 2021994391813115.567.521
Infratest dimap 2–7 Sep 20211,1533917141067722
Infratest dimap 19–24 Aug 20211,1533617151168719
INSA 6–12 Aug 20211,0002817181487810
INSA 16–22 Jul 20211,098261920139766
Wahlkreisprognose 14–21 Jul 20212,000302024955710
Infratest dimap 8–13 Jul 20211,159271623127784
INSA 21–30 Jun 20211,002261920138686
Infratest dimap 12–18 May 20211,2452317211114682
Forsa 12–15 Jan 20211,0022614241610372
Infratest dimap 18–21 Nov 20201,000271527121036Tie
Infratest dimap 3–6 Jun 20201,0042415291310455
Forsa 2–10 Jan 20201,00219192014135101
Forsa 18–23 Sep 20191,0022220211212581
Forsa 4–11 Jan 20191,007221822161048Tie
Forsa 24 May–28 Jun 20181,002252218168473
Forsa 2–11 Jan 20181,001281920155588
INSA 30 Jun–14 Jul 20171,60831.520.522.013.54.53.54.59.5
Forsa 9–16 Jan 20171,0023218211344811
2016 state election 4 Sep 201630.620.818.013.24.83.05.69.8

Results

2021 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election - composition chart.svg
PartyConstituencyParty listTotal
seats
+/–
Votes%+/–SeatsVotes%+/–Seats
Social Democratic Party (SPD)313,22434.41+4.9934361,76939.59+9.03034+8
Alternative for Germany (AfD)163,96218.01–3.881152,77516.72–4.101314–4
Christian Democratic Union (CDU)157,40317.29–4.501121,58313.30–5.681112–4
The Left (DIE LINKE)106,18911.67–3.20090,8819.94–3.2399–2
Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE)59,5446.54+1.73057,5546.30+1.4855+5
Free Democratic Party (FDP)56,9516.26+2.91052,9635.80+2.7555+5
Human Environment Animal Protection Party 6,9020.76+0.76015,2121.66+0.4600±0
Grassroots Democratic Party 16,3191.79New015,2211.67New00New
Free Voters 18,3242.01+0.95010,0751.10+0.5100±0
National Democratic Party 00.0007,0630.77–2.2400±0
Die PARTEI 1,8260.20–0.1107,0230.77+0.1400±0
Animal Protection Here!00.00New03,8830.42New00New
Pirate Party Germany 1,7740.19+0.1503,7060.41–0.0800±0
Free Horizon2,4910.27–0.4503,3480.37–0.4500±0
Independents for Citizen-oriented Democracy 5580.06New02,3310.26New00New
Party for Health Research 00.00New02,0300.22New00New
Team Todenhöfer 00.00New01,6310.18New00New
The Humanists 00.00New01,1050.12New00New
Ecological Democratic Party 00.00New09360.10New00New
Alliance C – Christians for Germany 1860.02–0.0208270.09–0.0100±0
German Communist Party 00.0007270.08–0.0800±0
Democracy in Motion 00.00New05630.06New00New
Free Parliamentary Alliance7080.08New04360.05New00New
Liberal Conservative Reformers 00.0002210.02–0.2800±0
Independents 3,8080.42–0.28000.0000±0
Total910,169100.0036913,863100.004379
Valid votes910,16997.99+0.24913,86398.39+0.24
Invalid/blank votes18,6382.01–0.2414,9441.61–0.24
Total votes928,807100.00928,807100.00
Registered voters/turnout1,312,47170.77+8.921,312,47170.77+8.92
Source: State Returning Officer
Popular vote
SPD
39.59%
AfD
16.72%
CDU
13.30%
LINKE
9.94%
GRÜNE
6.30%
FDP
5.80%
Other
8.35%
Landtag seats
SPD
43.04%
AfD
17.72%
CDU
15.19%
LINKE
11.39%
GRÜNE
6.33%
FDP
6.33%

Aftermath

Minister-President Schwesig claimed victory after the release of exit polls and spoke of "a wonderful evening for our state and the SPD." CDU leader Michael Sack and general-secretary Wolfgang Waldmüller both described the party's result as a "catastrophe". Despite the AfD's losses, state chairman Leif Erik-Holm voiced his satisfaction with the result, particularly the decline of the CDU. Simone Oldenburg, the lead candidate for The Left, stated that the result was a mandate for a shift to the left in the government. Harald Terpe of the Greens described their performance as "promising" but said that many of the party's key issues are still not a high priority for the state's voters. [2]

Government formation

The SPD declined to commit to a coalition partner after the election, but a two-party government with either the CDU or The Left was mathematically possible. A traffic light coalition with the Greens and FDP also holds a majority. Minister President Schwesig described a "stable majority" with "reliable partners" as key to the formation of a new government. [2]

On 13 October 2021, Schwesig announced the SPD would enter coalition talks with The Left. She stated her motivations for reorienting the coalition as a desire for "a new departure", and described The Left as a "social, pragmatic party" with decisive policy overlap with the SPD. She said that The Left had been a reliable partner to the government even while in opposition, and had assumed "state-political responsibility" during the COVID-19 pandemic. [8]

A coalition agreement between the SPD and The Left was agreed to on 5 November [9] and signed on 13 November. Schwesig was re-elected as Minister-President on 15 November with 41 votes in favour, 35 against, and three abstentions. In the new cabinet, the SPD has six ministers and the Left has two: Simone Oldenburg as education minister and Jaqueline Bernhardt as justice minister. [10] [3]

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References

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  3. 1 2 "Schwesig is re-elected as Minister-President of MV". Norddeutscher Rundfunk (in German). 15 November 2021.
  4. "Landtagswahl 2021 in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern". State Office for Internal Administration/State Returning Officer.
  5. "State election on 26 September 2021 in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania". State Returning Officer Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. 12 January 2021.
  6. "New CDU state chief also top candidate for state elections". N-tv.de. 7 August 2020.
  7. "Oldenburg shall be top candidate of The Left". Norddeutscher Rundfunk. 28 January 2021.
  8. "Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: Schwesig wants to govern with the Left Party". tagesschau.de (in German). Tagesschau. 13 October 2021. Archived from the original on 2021-10-13. Retrieved 2021-10-14.
  9. "SPD and Left agree on coalition agreement". tagesschau.de (in German). Tagesschau. 13 October 2021. Archived from the original on 2021-11-05. Retrieved 7 November 2021.
  10. "SPD and Left sign coalition agreement". Norddeutscher Rundfunk (in German). 13 November 2021.