2021 Rhineland-Palatinate state election

Last updated
2021 Rhineland-Palatinate state election
Flag of Rhineland-Palatinate.svg
  2016 14 March 2021 2026  

All 101 seats in the Landtag of Rhineland-Palatinate
51 seats needed for a majority
Turnout1,957,990 (64.4%)
Decrease2.svg 6.0%
 First partySecond partyThird party
  WLP RLP 9648 Malu Dreyer.jpg 2016-12-06 Christian Baldauf CDU Parteitag by Olaf Kosinsky-8.jpg 2016-11-17 - Anne Spiegel - 0545.jpg
Candidate Malu Dreyer Christian Baldauf Anne Spiegel
Party SPD CDU Greens
Leader's seat Trier Frankenthal List
Last election39 seats, 36.2%35 seats, 31.8%6 seats, 5.3%
Seats won393110
Seat changeSteady2.svgDecrease2.svg 4Increase2.svg 4
Popular vote690,962535,318179,860
Percentage35.7%27.7%9.3%
SwingDecrease2.svg 0.5%Decrease2.svg 4.1%Increase2.svg 4.0%

 Fourth partyFifth partySixth party
  2016-11-17 - Michael Frisch - 0210.jpg 2016-11-17 - Daniela Schmitt - 0341.jpg Dr. Joachim Streit, 2021.jpg
Candidate Michael Frisch Daniela Schmitt Joachim Streit
Party AfD FDP FW
Leader's seat List List List
Last election14 seats, 12.6%7 seats, 6.2%0 seats, 2.2%
Seats won966
Seat changeDecrease2.svg 5Decrease2.svg 1Increase2.svg 6
Popular vote160,293106,809103,619
Percentage8.3%5.5%5.4%
SwingDecrease2.svg 4.3%Decrease2.svg 0.7%Increase2.svg 3.2%

2021 Rhineland-Palatinate state election - Map.svg
Results for the single-member constituencies

Government before election

Second Dreyer cabinet
SPDFDPGreen

Government after election

Third Dreyer cabinet
SPDGreenFDP

The 2021 Rhineland-Palatinate state election was held on 14 March 2021 to elect the 18th Landtag of Rhineland-Palatinate. [1] The outgoing government was a "traffic light coalition" of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), Free Democratic Party (FDP), and The Greens led by Minister-President Malu Dreyer.

Contents

The SPD won an unexpectedly clear plurality of 35.7% of votes cast, less than one percentage point lower than their 2016 result. [2] The opposition Christian Democratic Union (CDU) finished on 27.7%, a decline of four percentage points, its worst result in the state to date. The Greens moved from fifth to third place with 9.3%. Alternative for Germany (AfD) saw the worst losses of any party, falling to 8.3%. The Free Democratic Party recorded a small decline to 5.5% but retained their seats. The Free Voters (FW) entered the Landtag for the first time with 5.4%, marking their third appearance in a state parliament overall, following Bavaria and Brandenburg. [3]

Overall, the incumbent government was returned with an increased majority. After the election, Minister-President Dreyer expressed her desire to renew the outgoing coalition. [4] On 30 April, the SPD, Greens, and FDP came to a coalition agreement. [5] Dreyer was re-elected as Minister-President on 18 May. [6]

Election date

The period of the 17th Landtag began on 18 April 2016. Landtag elections may take place between 57 and 60 months after the commencement of the term of the previous Landtag; thus, the election may take place between February and May 2021. [7] On 11 February 2020, the state government announced the date of the election as 14 March 2021. [1] A state election was held on the same day in neighbouring state of Baden-Württemberg.

Electoral system

The Landtag is elected via mixed-member proportional representation. 52 members are elected in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post voting. 49 members are then allocated using compensatory proportional representation, distributed in four multi-member districts. [8] Voters have two votes: the "first vote" for candidates in single-member constituencies, and the "second vote" for party lists, which are used to fill the proportional seats. The minimum size of the Landtag is 101 members, but if overhang seats are present, proportional leveling seats will be added to ensure proportionality. An electoral threshold of 5% of valid votes is applied to the Landtag; parties that fall below this threshold are excluded. [9]

Background

In the previous election held on 13 March 2016, the SPD retained its position as the largest party ahead of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Alternative for Germany (AfD) contested its first election in Rhineland-Palatinate, placing third with 12.6%. The FDP returned to the Landtag after falling out in 2011, winning 6.2% and 7 seats. The Greens narrowly retained their representation with 5.3%, a loss of 10.1 percentage points.

The SPD had led a coalition with the Greens since 2011 but lost its majority in the election. The SPD subsequently formed a coalition with the FDP and Greens.

Parties

The table below lists the parties represented in the 17th Landtag.

#NameIdeologyLead
candidate
2016 result
Votes (%)Seats
1SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands
Social democracy Malu Dreyer 36.2%
39 / 101
2CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands
Christian democracy Christian Baldauf 31.8%
35 / 101
3AfD Alternative for Germany
Alternative für Deutschland
Right-wing populism Michael Frisch 12.6%
14 / 101
4FDP Free Democratic Party
Freie Demokratische Partei
Classical liberalism Daniela Schmitt 6.2%
7 / 101
5Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
Green politics Anne Spiegel 5.3%
6 / 101

In addition to the parties already represented in the Landtag, eight other parties contested the election: [10]

#Name
6 The Left (LINKE)
7 FREE VOTERS Rhineland-Palatinate (FREIE WÄHLER)
8 Pirate Party Germany (PIRATEN)
9 Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP)
10 Climate List RLP (Klimaliste RLP e. V.)
11 Die PARTEI (PARTEI)
12 Human Environment Animal Protection Party (Tierschutzpartei)
13 Volt Deutschland (Volt)

Campaign

Lead candidates

On 18 October 2019, the state executive of The Greens nominated Anne Spiegel, Minister for Family, Women, Youth, Integration and Consumer Protection, as the party's lead candidate for the election. [11]

On 16 November 2019, leader of the CDU parliamentary group Christian Baldauf was selected as his party's lead candidate for the election. [12] He won 80.25% of votes against challenger Marlon Bröhr, administrator of the Rhein-Hunsrück district. [13]

On 2 December 2019, Minister-President Malu Dreyer announced her withdrawal from the federal executive of the SPD in order to focus on state politics and the upcoming state election. She had served as co-deputy leader of the federal party since 2017, and was joint acting leader from June to December 2019 after the resignation of leader Andrea Nahles. The announcement came after the 2019 leadership election which saw Saskia Esken and Norbert Walter-Borjans chosen as Nahles' successors. Rhineland-Palatinate state party leader Roger Lewentz stated: "[Dreyer] is the best Minister-President for Rhineland-Palatinate. In the coming year we will do everything we can to ensure that she can continue to hold her post even after the state election in 2021." [14] She was formally confirmed as lead candidate on 7 December 2020. [15]

On 19 August 2020, the state FDP executive chose State Secretary for Economic Affairs Daniela Schmitt as their lead candidate for the election. [16]

On 5 September, AfD announced their list of candidates for the election. State leader Michael Frisch was the lead candidate. [17]

Joachim Streit was the lead candidate for the Free Voters. [18]

Opinion polling

Graphical summary

Opinion polls Rhineland-Palatinate 2021.svg
Local regression of polls conducted.

Party polling

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
SPD CDU AfD FDP Grüne Linke FW OthersLead
2021 state election14 Mar 202135.727.78.35.59.32.55.45.78.0
INSA 11–12 Mar 20211,3543229107103453
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 8–11 Mar 20211,735332996.510354.54
INSA 1–8 Mar 20211,501303010612345Tie
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 1–4 Mar 2021998332997113444
Infratest dimap 1–3 Mar 20211,186302899123541
Infratest dimap 19–23 Feb 20211,000303197123441
INSA 15–22 Feb 20211,304313396123332
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 1–4 Feb 20211,02231337513472
INSA 13–19 Jan 20211,006303396143323
Infratest dimap 8–12 Jan 20211,00128338615375
Infratest dimap 4–8 Dec 20201,00228349515366
INSA 13–20 Oct 20201,0132733105145336
Infratest dimap 4–8 Sep 20201,00526349617448
Infratest dimap 20–21 Apr 20201,003273886134411
INSA 16–30 Mar 20201,045243012519556
Infratest dimap 27 Feb–3 Mar 20201,001262711718651
Infratest dimap 5–10 Dec 20191,002263013716444
INSA 9–16 Sep 20191,0122228128204336
Infratest dimap 5–9 Sep 20191,001232811821455
Infratest dimap 14–18 Mar 20191,0002431111014647
Forsa 1–8 Feb 20191,005263110814565
Infratest dimap 10–11 Dec 20181,001243113716457
Infratest dimap 11–15 Oct 20181,003242813818544
Infratest dimap 14–18 Jun 20181,004293113711542
Infratest dimap 5–7 Mar 20181,0013733878344
INSA 2–8 Jan 20181,51733341077541
Infratest dimap 8–12 Dec 20171,0033837676331
Infratest dimap 7–11 Sep 20171,001363686644Tie
GESS Phone & Field 6–17 Jul 20171,00233378763244
Infratest dimap 14–19 Jun 20171,0003237877545
Infratest dimap 2–6 Mar 20171,0014035766335
GESS Phone & Field 9–19 Dec 20161,002343611553242
Infratest dimap 8–12 Dec 20161,00032361095444
Infratest dimap 8–12 Jul 20161,0043333107845Tie
GESS Phone & Field 13–20 Jun 20161,004363112663335
2016 state election 13 Mar 201636.231.812.66.25.32.82.22.84.4

Minister-President polling

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
WLP RLP 9648 Malu Dreyer.jpg 2017-10-17 Grundsteinlegung Landtag Rheinland-Pfalz by Olaf Kosinsky-79 cropped.jpg 2016-12-06 Christian Baldauf CDU Parteitag by Olaf Kosinsky-8.jpg 2016-11-17 - Anne Spiegel - 0545.jpg None/UnsureLead
Dreyer
SPD
Klöckner
CDU
Baldauf
CDU
Spiegel
Grüne
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 1–4 Mar 202199859281331
Infratest dimap Archived 2021-03-05 at the Wayback Machine 1–3 Mar 20211,18653291824
Infratest dimap Archived 2021-02-26 at the Wayback Machine 19–23 Feb 20211,00056281628
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 1–4 Feb 20211,02259231836
Infratest dimap Archived 2021-01-17 at the Wayback Machine 4–8 Dec 20201,00254185936
Infratest dimap Archived 2021-01-03 at the Wayback Machine 4–8 Sep 20201,005551531140
Infratest dimap Archived 2020-09-13 at the Wayback Machine 27 Feb–3 Mar 20201,001571741140
Infratest dimap Archived 2020-09-13 at the Wayback Machine [19] 5–7 Mar 20181,0015631525
Infratest dimap8–12 Dec 20171,0035630626
Infratest dimap14–19 Jun 20171,0005031919
Infratest dimap2–6 Mar 20171,0015234618

Preferred coalition

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Assessment SPD
Grüne
CDU
Grüne
SPD
Grüne
FDP
CDU
Grüne
FDP
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 1–4 Mar 2021998Positive40313021
Negative39474553
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen Archived 2021-02-05 at the Wayback Machine 1–4 Feb 20211,022Positive40373026
Negative35374546

Results

Map of results by constituency (Wahlkreis) Landtagswahl 2021 Rheinland-Pfalz Erststimmenergebnis.svg
Map of results by constituency (Wahlkreis)
2021 Rhineland-Palatinate state election - composition chart.svg
PartyConstituencyParty listTotal
seats
+/–
Votes %SeatsVotes %SwingSeats
Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD)618,17632.228690,96235.7Decrease2.svg 0.51139Steady2.svg 0
Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU)604,08831.423535,31827.7Decrease2.svg 4.1831Decrease2.svg 4
Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE)210,02210.91179,8609.3Increase2.svg 4.0910Increase2.svg 4
Alternative for Germany (AfD)145,3837.60160,2938.3Decrease2.svg 4.399Decrease2.svg 5
Free Democratic Party (FDP)115,5306.00106,8095.5Decrease2.svg 0.766Decrease2.svg 1
Free Voters (FW)143,9407.50103,6195.4Increase2.svg 3.266Increase2.svg 6
The Left (LINKE)54,1392.8048,2062.5Decrease2.svg 0.300Steady2.svg 0
Human Environment Animal Protection Party 32,5271.7New00New
Die PARTEI 8,4020.4020,5191.1New00New
Volt Germany 1,4970.1019,2861.0New00New
Climate List RLP 9,4770.5013,6810.7New00New
Ecological Democratic Party 8,1980.4013,4060.7Increase2.svg 0.300Steady2.svg 0
Pirate Party Germany 1,8200.1010,3930.5Decrease2.svg 0.300Steady2.svg 0
Grassroots Democratic Party of Germany 2290.000New
Independents1,6780.100Steady2.svg 0
Total1,922,579100.0521,934,879100.049101Steady2.svg 0
Invalid/blank votes34,7701.822,4701.1
Registered voters/turnout3,042,41464.33,042,41464.3Decrease2.svg 6.1
Source: State Returning Officer Archived 2021-03-16 at the Wayback Machine
Popular vote
SPD
35.71%
CDU
27.67%
GRÜNE
9.30%
AfD
8.28%
FDP
5.52%
FW
5.36%
LINKE
2.49%
Other
5.67%
Landtag seats
SPD
38.61%
CDU
30.69%
GRÜNE
9.90%
AfD
8.91%
FDP
5.94%
FW
5.94%

Aftermath

The result was considered a victory for the SPD, contrasting a long string of losses in other state, federal, and local elections since 2018. [4] Their success was attributed to the popularity of incumbent Minister-President Dreyer during the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. [20] [21] After the election, the SPD's federal Chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz voiced his support for a "traffic light" coalition on the federal level. [2]

The CDU's poorer-than-expected result was attributed in part to local factors, such as Dreyer's popularity and the difficulty faced by the opposition when campaigning during pandemic conditions. [21] [22] Commentators also pointed to federal factors, such as the unpopularity of newly-elected federal CDU chairman Armin Laschet, poor management of the pandemic by federal government, and particularly the "mask scandal" which broke a few days before the election. [20] [4] The result was perceived as harming the CDU/CSU's standing ahead of the September federal election, and damaging Laschet's chances of being selected as the Union's candidate for Chancellor. [20]

Government formation

Minister-President Malu Dreyer quickly voiced her desire to continue the coalition between the SPD, Greens, and Free Democrats. State FDP chairman Volker Wissing made similar comments. [4] The three parties began exploratory talks on 18 March. [23] On 30 April, they announced they had agreed to renew the coalition. [5]

On 18 May, Dreyer was elected as Minister-President for a third term by the Landtag. She won 55 votes, more than the 51 needed for an absolute majority. The new ministry was sworn in the same day, comprising six SPD, two Green, and two FDP ministers. [6]

See also

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