2025 Western Australian state election

Last updated

2025 Western Australian state election
Flag of Western Australia.svg
←  2021 8 March 20252029 →
All 59 seats in the Western Australian Legislative Assembly
and all 37 members in the Western Australian Legislative Council
30 Assembly seats are needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
3 Feb 15 FREO FSH gnangarra-123.jpg
Toodyay show gnangarra-2000 b.jpg
Libby Mettam (cropped).jpg
Leader Roger Cook Shane Love Libby Mettam
Party Labor National Liberal
Leader since 6 June 2023 30 January 2023 30 January 2023
Leader's seat Kwinana Moore Vasse
Last election53 seats, 59.92%4 seats, 4.00%2 seats, 21.30%
Current seats53 seats3 seats [a] 3 seats [a]
Seats neededSteady2.svgIncrease2.svg 27Increase2.svg 27
Incumbent Premier

Roger Cook
Labor



The 2025 Western Australian state election is scheduled to be held on 8 March 2025 to elect members to the Parliament of Western Australia, where all 59 seats in the Legislative Assembly and all 37 seats in the Legislative Council will be up for election.

Contents

The Labor government, currently led by Premier Roger Cook, will attempt to win a third consecutive four-year term against the National–Liberal opposition, currently led by Shane Love and Libby Mettam respectively. [3]

Candidates will be elected to single-member seats in the Legislative Assembly via full-preferential instant-runoff voting. In the Legislative Council, 37 candidates are elected across the state, which functions as a single electorate. Amendments made to electoral law have increased the size of the Legislative Council by one member at this election, while abolishing the previous system of six regions of unequal population that each elected six members.

Background

The 2021 state election saw Labor win one of the most comprehensive victories on record at the state or territory level in Australia. It won 53 of the 59 seats, surpassing its own record set four years earlier for the largest government majority and seat tally in Western Australian parliamentary history. [4] [5]

Registered parties

The following parties are registered with the Western Australian Electoral Commission: [6]

Electoral system

Candidates are elected to single-member seats in the Legislative Assembly via full-preferential instant-runoff voting. In the Legislative Council, 37 candidates are elected across the state, which functions as a single electorate.

Legislative Council voting changes

In September 2021, the McGowan Labor Government introduced the "one vote, one value" legislation to change the voting system for the Legislative Council at this election. Under the then-existing voting system for the upper house, which had been in place since 2005, voters were divided into six regions of unequal weight, each of whom were responsible for electing six candidates (36 in total). Three of the regions were based in metropolitan Perth, and three in the regions. This meant that a region like the Mining and Pastoral region had 16% of the average number of electors in the three metropolitan regions. [7] [8] The government proposed abolishing the regions and replacing them with what it called a "one vote, one value" system. Instead, 37 members will be elected from a single statewide constituency. This increased the size of the council by one seat. Group voting tickets, which were abolished for the federal Senate in 2016 and are utilised only for the Victorian Legislative Council, would also be abolished. [9] Votes are instead cast under an optional preferential voting system, requiring electors to vote for one or more preferred parties above the dividing line on the ballot paper, or at least 20 candidates below the dividing line. [10] The legislation passed the parliament on 17 November 2021 and received royal assent seven days thereafter. [11] [12] [13]

Redistribution

The Western Australian Electoral Commission conducted a redistribution of the boundaries of all 59 electoral districts. The final boundaries for the electoral districts were released on 1 December 2023. [14]

The seats of Moore and North West Central were merged to create a new seat, Mid-West. [14] The merger of two rural seats into one was matched by the creation of a new seat in Perth, Oakford, which covers growing suburbs between Armadale and the Kwinana Freeway. [14]

According to psephologist Antony Green, the Coalition will need a combined swing of 23.4% to gain the 24 seats needed to form a majority government. [14]

On the new boundaries, there are 17 seats with margins under 15%, which will be regarded as "key seats". (Green described these as "marginal seats" due to the extent of Labor's landslide in 2021, as normally a margin of over 15% would be considered a safe seat.)

Changes to electorates of the Legislative Assembly

Current seat2021 electionNew seat2023 redistribution
PartyMemberMarginPartyMemberMargin*
Burns Beach Labor Mark Folkard 26.9 Mindarie LaborNotional23.1
Mirrabooka Labor Meredith Hammat 33.7 Girrawheen LaborNotional33.4
Moore Nationals Shane Love 8.5 Mid-West NationalsNotional8.6
North-West Central Nationals Vince Catania 1.7
New seat Oakford LaborNotional27.7
Warnbro Labor Paul Papalia 33.4 Secret Harbour LaborNotional31.3
Willagee Liberal Peter Tinley 27.1 Bibra Lake LaborNotional28.2
*These margins are notional, being calculated by Antony Green to take account of the 2023 redistribution. As such, it may vary from the 2021 election results.
New "key seats", with margins under 15%
SeatPartyMargin
New20212017
Churchlands ALP1.60.813.2
Warren-Blackwood ALP2.21.313.4
Nedlands ALP3.12.88.3
Carine ALP4.02.59.0
Vasse LIB4.34.314.7
Bateman ALP6.76.79.5
Cottesloe LIB7.47.413.3
Mid-West NAT8.6—
Central Wheatbelt NAT8.610.722.6
Geraldton ALP9.311.71.3
Scarborough ALP9.510.45.6
South Perth ALP10.110.17.2
Roe NAT12.211.114.4
Albany ALP11.013.75.1
Dawesville ALP13.113.90.7
Darling Range ALP14.113.55.8
Kalamunda ALP14.511.82.5

Key dates

Elections are scheduled for the second Saturday of March every four years, in line with legislative changes made in 2011. [15]

While the Legislative Assembly has fixed four-year terms, the Governor of Western Australia may still dissolve the Assembly and call an election early on the advice of the Premier. [16]

Retiring MPs

Labor

Liberal

National

Candidates

Opinion polling

Primary vote opinion polling for the Western Australian 2025 election with a local regression (LOESS) trendline for each party. WA Opinion Polling for 2025 Election.png
Primary vote opinion polling for the Western Australian 2025 election with a local regression (LOESS) trendline for each party.
Two-party-preferred opinion polling for the Western Australian 2025 election with a local regression (LOESS) trendline for each party. WA 2PP Opinion Polling for 2025 Election.png
Two-party-preferred opinion polling for the Western Australian 2025 election with a local regression (LOESS) trendline for each party.

Voting intention

Legislative Assembly (lower house) polling
DateFirmSamplePrimary vote TPP vote
ALPLIBNATGRNONPOTHALPLIB
30 October – 4 November 2024Demos AU [41] [42] 94841%34%4%12%—9%56%44%
September 2024Freshwater [43] 104539%32%6%11%—12%55%45%
August 2024Wolf & Smith [44] [45] [46] 87837%29%3%12%4%15%55%45%
July 2024Freshwater [47] 100039%33%5%12%2%9%56%44%
14 December 2023Redbridge [48] 120044%29%4%11%3%9%59%41%
23 July 2023Utting Research [49] 100032%37%6%10%—15%46%54%
31 May 2023Utting Research [50] 80052%28%5%8%—7%61%39%
13 March 2021 election N/A59.9%21.3%4.0%6.9%1.3%6.6%69.7%30.3%

Preferred Premier

DateFirmSamplePreferred Premier
Cook Mettam Don't know
30 October – 4 November 2024Demos AU [41] [42] 94842%29%29%
September 2024Freshwater [43] 104546%34%20%
31 May 2023Utting Research [50] 80050%24%26%

Satisfaction ratings

DateFirmSample Cook Mettam
SatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't knowNetSatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't knowNet
23 July 2023Utting Research [49] 100027%37%36%–10%31%24%45%+7%
31 May 2023Utting Research [50] 80042%26%32%+16%31%33%36%–2%
DateFirmSample McGowan Mettam
SatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't knowNetSatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't knowNet
11 Mar 2023Painted Dog Research [51] 105263%24%13%+39%24%18%58%+6%
DateFirmSample McGowan Honey
SatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't knowNetSatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't knowNet
19–21 Oct 2022Painted Dog Research [52] 63770%18%12%+52%9%31%60%–22%

Notes

  1. 1 2 In late October 2023, Merome Beard, National MP for the rural electorate of North West Central, defected to the Liberal Party. [1] [2]

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References

  1. ↑ Carmody, James; Perpitch, Nicolas; Mundy, Garrett (31 October 2023). "Nationals MP Merome Beard quits party to join Liberals, throwing opposition alliance into doubt". ABC News.
  2. ↑ Hastie, Hamish (31 October 2023). "WA Liberals-Nationals divide widens to a chasm with shock defection of MP". WA Today.
  3. ↑ Shepherd, Tory (29 May 2023). "Mark McGowan resigns as premier of Western Australia saying he is 'exhausted'". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved 29 May 2023.
  4. ↑ WA Election 2021 ABC News
  5. ↑ Mark McGowan leads Labor landslide in WA as Liberals' worst fears are realised The Guardian 13 March 2021
  6. ↑ "Registered Political Parties in WA". www.elections.wa.gov.au. Retrieved 29 April 2024.
  7. ↑ Green, Antony (6 March 2017). "The Growing Bias Against Perth and the South West in WA's Legislative Council". Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
  8. ↑ Green, Antony (4 May 2021). "WA's Zonal Electoral System and the Legislative Council Reform Debate – Antony Green's Election Blog". Antony Green's Election Blog. Retrieved 22 May 2021.
  9. ↑ Rhiannon Shine and Jacob Kagi (15 September 2021). "Mark McGowan announces sweeping changes to WA's electoral system, abolishing regions". ABC News.
  10. ↑ "EXPLANATORY MEMORANDUM: CONSTITUTIONAL AND ELECTORAL LEGISLATION AMENDMENT (ELECTORAL EQUALITY) BILL 2021" (PDF). parliament.wa.gov.au. Refer to pp. 3
  11. ↑ Rhiannon Shine and Nicolas Perpitch (17 November 2021). "WA government uses majority to introduce sweeping changes to electoral system". ABC News.
  12. ↑ "Progress of Bills: Constitutional and Electoral Legislation Amendment (Electoral Equality) Bill 2021". parliament.wa.gov.au.
  13. ↑ "Constitutional and Electoral Legislation Amendment (Electoral Equality) Act 2021" (PDF). legislation.wa.gov.au.
  14. 1 2 3 4 "Western Australia State Redistribution – Final Boundaries Released – Antony Green's Election Blog". December 2023.
  15. ↑ "State Elections". Western Australia Electoral Commission. Retrieved 26 April 2021.
  16. ↑ Electoral and Constitution Amendment Act 2011 (WA), section 5
  17. ↑ Caporn, Dylan (5 March 2024). "Lisa Baker: Another Labor MP announces retirement from politics ahead of 2025 State Election" . The West Australian. Retrieved 5 March 2024.
  18. ↑ Law, Peter (29 July 2022). "Alannah MacTiernan set to retire from politics at next State election" . The West Australian. Retrieved 29 July 2022.
  19. ↑ "Battle looms for Perth Hills after MP confirms retirement" . The West Australian. 9 February 2024. Retrieved 20 February 2024.
  20. ↑ Weber, David (30 November 2023). "WA's Mines, Petroleum and Energy Minister Bill Johnston resigns from state parliament". ABC News. Retrieved 2 December 2023.
  21. ↑ "Kyle McGinn: MUA-aligned Upper House MP seeks to enter Federal Parliament via new WA seat of Bullwinkel" . The West Australian. 7 July 2024. Retrieved 14 July 2024.
  22. ↑ Zimmerman, Josh (8 April 2024). "Mt Lawley MP Simon Millman to retire at 2025 State election" . The West Australian. Retrieved 8 April 2024.
  23. ↑ WA Labor (16 May 2024). "Today, we thank Martin Pritchard as he announces that he will not seek re-election in the upcoming 2025 State Election. Martin has made an enormous contribution to the labour movement. He has served almost 10 years as Member for the Legislative Council, and before that, 26 years as a union official! We're sad to see Martin go, but we wish him all the best for a happy retirement - and lots more time with the grandkids!". Facebook.
  24. ↑ Ho, Cason (19 February 2024). "WA Attorney-General John Quigley to quit politics at 2025 state election". ABC News. Retrieved 20 February 2024.
  25. ↑ Zimmerman, Josh (2 April 2024). "Landsdale MP Margaret Quirk confirms retirement at 2025 election, opening door to Daniel Pastorelli" . The West Australian. Retrieved 3 April 2024.
  26. ↑ Brookes, Sarah (3 April 2024). "Labor stalwart's retirement opens door for WA Premier's right-hand man to enter politics". WAtoday. Retrieved 3 April 2024.
  27. ↑ "Speaker Michelle Roberts to quit State politics at the next election". 16 October 2024.
  28. ↑ Zimmerman, Josh (5 July 2024). "Confirmed: Labor MP Katrina Stratton abandons Nedlands in favour of safe seat in the Legislative Council" . The West Australian. Retrieved 6 July 2024.
  29. ↑ Zimmerman, Josh (3 June 2024). "Swan Hills MP Jessica Shaw announces shock retirement to pursue more active role in energy transition" . The West Australian. Retrieved 3 June 2024.
  30. ↑ Chris Tallentire MLA. "Since 2008 it's been my honour to serve the people of the Thornlie, and previously the Gosnells, electorates. I now announce that will not be recontesting the seat at the March 2025 State election". Facebook.
  31. ↑ "David Templeman to retire from State Parliament". 17 September 2024.
  32. ↑ "Willagee MP Peter Tinley to quit Parliament at 2025 election". 14 March 2024.
  33. ↑ Darren West MLC on Facebook
  34. ↑ Joe, Spagnolo (29 January 2023). "Joe Spagnolo opinion: Leadership stoush a test of the power of The Clan" . The West Australian. Retrieved 30 January 2023.
  35. ↑ Dietsch, Jake (10 January 2024). "Long-serving Liberal MLC Donna Faragher will retire at 2025 election" . The West Australian. Retrieved 10 January 2024.
  36. ↑ Hastie, Hamish (10 January 2024). "WA Liberals' only upper house female MLC to quit parliament". WAtoday. Retrieved 10 January 2024.
  37. ↑ "David Honey out, Sandra Brewer selected as Liberal party's Cottesloe candidate". 10 February 2024.
  38. ↑ Zimmerman, Josh (16 April 2024). "Martin Aldridge: Nationals MP to retire from politics at next election". The West Australian . Retrieved 9 June 2024.
  39. ↑ Carmody, James (27 January 2023). "WA Opposition Leader Mia Davies announces resignation". ABC News (Australia) . Retrieved 27 January 2023.
  40. ↑ @CdG_MLC (8 June 2024). "Today I made the decision to withdraw my nomination for preselection for the Nationals WA in the Legislative Council. I extend my thanks to the wonderful members of the organisation for the support and friendship they have given me over the 15 years I have been involved. #wapol" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  41. 1 2 "Poll: A dozen new Liberals not enough to beat Labor in 2025" . The West Australian . Perth: Seven West Media. 11 November 2024. Archived from the original on 11 November 2024. Retrieved 12 November 2024.
  42. 1 2 "WA miscellany: state polls, federal polls, Labor candidates – The Poll Bludger". www.pollbludger.net. Retrieved 13 November 2024.
  43. 1 2 Page, Jessica (9 September 2024). "Labor set to win third term at State Election and Roger Cook leads poll, but Liberals to make comeback" . The West Australian. Retrieved 9 September 2024.
  44. ↑ Curtis, Katina (8 September 2024). "Cost of living top-order political issue for more than half of West Australian voters" . The West Australian. Retrieved 8 September 2024.
  45. ↑ "Polls: Resolve Strategic, RedBridge/Accent MRP poll, Wolf & Smith federal and state (open thread) – The Poll Bludger". www.pollbludger.net. Retrieved 9 September 2024.
  46. ↑ "Federal & State Political Poll" (PDF). wolf+smith. August 2024. p. 27.
  47. ↑ Caporn, Dylan (8 August 2024). "Cost of living pressures sees WA Liberals' record bounce back in support" . The West Australian. Retrieved 8 September 2024.
  48. ↑ "WA has turned into a Labor fortress". Twitter . 15 December 2023. Retrieved 15 December 2023.
  49. 1 2 "Poll shows Libby Mettam's Liberals hold 54-46 two-party preferred lead over Labor with Roger Cook as Premier". The West Australian . 23 July 2023. Retrieved 23 July 2023.
  50. 1 2 3 "Leadership polling: New numbers offer Liberals a small glimmer of hope". The West Australian . 31 May 2023. Retrieved 3 June 2023.
  51. ↑ "McGowan's approval rating at lowest level since pandemic". 11 March 2023.
  52. ↑ Law, Peter. "'WA Liberal Party leader David Honey's approval rating at a humiliating low, new Painted Dog Research reveals'". The West Australian. Retrieved 28 October 2022.
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