Opinion polling for the 2025 Australian federal election

Last updated

In the lead-up to the 2025 Australian federal election, a number of polling companies are conducting opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collect data on parties' primary vote, and contain an estimation of the two-party-preferred lead.

Contents

Graphical summary

Primary vote

Australian federal election polling - 48th parliament - primary.svg

Two-party preferred

Australian federal election polling - 48th parliament - two party preferred.svg

Voting intention

2024

DateBrandInterview modeSample
size		Primary vote 2pp vote [a]
L/NP ALP GRN ONP UAP OTHUND ALP L/NP
27 November – 1 December 2024Essential [1] Online1,12335%32%11%8%1%9%5%47%48%
25 November – 1 December 2024Roy Morgan [2] Online1,66638.5%30%12.5%6.5%—12.5%—49%51%
18–24 November 2024Roy Morgan [3] Online1,66337%31.5%12.5%6.5%—12.5%—51%49%
19–21 November 2024DemosAU [4] Online1,03838%32%12%7%—11%—50%50%
15–21 November 2024YouGov [5] Online1,51538%30%13%9%—10%—50%50%
13–18 November 2024Essential [1] Online1,20635%30%13%7%2%8%5%48%47%
15–17 November 2024Freshwater Strategy [6] Online1,04640%30%14%——16%—49%51%
11–17 November 2024 Roy Morgan [7] Online1,67539%29%13.5%6.5%—12%—49%51%
6–13 November 2024RedBridge Group [8] Online2,01139%34%11%——16%—50%50%
5–10 November 2024Resolve Strategic [9] [10] Online1,62139%30%11%5%—15%—49%51%
4–10 November 2024Roy Morgan [11] Online1,66537.5%30.5%12.5%6.5%—13%—49.5%50.5%
4–8 November 2024 Newspoll [12] Online1,26140%33%11%5%—11%—49%51%
30 October – 3 November 2024Essential [1] Online1,13134%31%12%9%2%8%5%47%49%
28 October – 3 November 2024Roy Morgan [13] Online1,65138%30.5%14%6%—11.5%—49%51%
21–27 October 2024Roy Morgan [14] Online1,68737.5%30%14%5.5%—13%—50.5%49.5%
18–20 October 2024Freshwater Strategy [15] Online1,03441%30%13%——16%—49%51%
16–20 October 2024Essential [1] Online1,14035%28%12%7%2%9%6%46%48%
14–20 October 2024Roy Morgan [16] Online1,68736.5%32%13.5%5.5%—12.5%—52%48%
7–13 October 2024Roy Morgan [17] Online1,69737.5%30%14%6%—12.5%—50%50%
7–11 October 2024Newspoll [18] Online1,25838%31%12%7%—12%—49%51%
2–6 October 2024Essential [1] Online1,13934%32%12%8%1%9%5%49%47%
30 September – 6 October 2024Roy Morgan [19] Online1,69737.5%31.5%12.5%5.5%—13%—50%50%
1–5 October 2024Resolve Strategic [20] Online1,60638%30%12%5%—15%—50%50%
23–29 September 2024Roy Morgan [21] Online1,66838%30%13.5%4.5%—14%—49%51%
18–22 September 2024Essential [1] Online1,11735%29%12%8%2%9%5%47%48%
16–22 September 2024Roy Morgan [22] Online1,66237.5%32%12.5%5%—13%—50.5%49.5%
16–20 September 2024Newspoll [23] Online1,24938%31%13%6%—12%—50%50%
13–19 September 2024YouGov [24] Online1,61939%30%14%7%—10%—50%50%
13–15 September 2024Freshwater Strategy [25] Online1,05742%30%13%——15%—48%52%
9–15 September 2024Roy Morgan [26] Online1,63437.5%30.5%12.5%5.5%—14%—50.5%49.5%
2–8 September 2024Roy Morgan [27] Online1,70336.5%30%14.5%6%—13%—51%49%
3–7 September 2024Essential [1] Online1,13235%30%13%8%1%8%5%48%48%
3–7 September 2024Resolve Strategic [28] Online1,61437%28%13%6%1%15%—50%50%
26 August – 1 September 2024Roy Morgan [29] Online1,69736%30.5%13%6%—14.5%—50.5%49.5%
26–30 August 2024Newspoll [30] Online1,26338%32%12%7%—11%—50%50%
6–29 August 2024Wolf & Smith [31] [32] [33] Online10,23936%29%13%6%—15%—51%49%
23–28 August 2024YouGov [34] Online1,54337%32%13%8%—10%—50%50%
20–27 August 2024RedBridge Group [35] Online2,01738%33%12%——17%—50.5%49.5%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/
RedBridge Group [36] [37] [38] 		Online5,97638%32%12%——18%—50%50%
19–25 August 2024Roy Morgan [39] Online1,70139.5%29.5%13%4%—14%—49.5%50.5%
20–24 August 2024Essential [1] Online1,12933%29%13%7%1%11%6%48%46%
16–18 August 2024Freshwater Strategy [40] Online1,06141%32%12%——15%—49%51%
12–18 August 2024Roy Morgan [41] Online1,69838.5%30.5%13.5%4%—13.5%—50.5%49.5%
8–11 August 2024Essential [1] Online1,13234%28%14%7%1%9%6%47%47%
7–11 August 2024Resolve Strategic [42] Online1,60737%29%13%6%2%13%—50%50%
5–11 August 2024Roy Morgan [43] Online1,67138%29.5%14%5%—13.5%—50%50%
5–9 August 2024Newspoll [44] Online1,26639%32%12%6%—11%—50%50%
29 July – 4 August 2024Roy Morgan [45] Online1,65537%30.5%12%5.5%—15%—51.5%48.5%
24–28 July 2024Essential [1] Online1,13734%32%11%7%2%9%6%47%46%
22–28 July 2024Roy Morgan [46] Online1,65237.5%30.5%13%6.5%—12.5%—50.5%49.5%
19–21 July 2024Freshwater Strategy [47] Online1,06040%31%13%——16%—49%51%
15–21 July 2024Roy Morgan [48] Online1,75239.5%31.5%13%5%—11%—49%51%
15–19 July 2024Newspoll [49] Online1,25838%33%13%6%—10%—51%49%
10–19 July 2024RedBridge Group [50] Online1,50541%32%11%——16%—48.5%51.5%
12–17 July 2024YouGov [51] Online1,52838%31%13%7%—11%—51%49%
10–14 July 2024Essential [1] Online1,12233%29%13%8%3%9%6%46%48%
8–14 July 2024Roy Morgan [52] Online1,75837.5%31%12.5%5%—14%—49.5%50.5%
10–13 July 2024Resolve Strategic [53] Online1,60338%28%13%6%1%13%—50%50%
1–7 July 2024Roy Morgan [54] Online1,72339.5%28.5%13.5%5%—13.5%—48%52%
26–30 June 2024Essential [1] Online1,14133%30%12%7%1%10%7%46%47%
24–30 June 2024Roy Morgan [55] Online1,70836.5%31.5%13%4.5%—14.5%—51%49%
24–28 June 2024Newspoll [56] Online1,26036%32%13%7%—12%—51%49%
17–23 June 2024Roy Morgan [57] Online1,69637%31.5%13%6%—12.5%—51%49%
14–16 June 2024Freshwater Strategy [58] Online1,06040%32%13%——15%—50%50%
12–16 June 2024Essential [1] Online1,18132%31%13%8%1%9%6%48%46%
10–16 June 2024Roy Morgan [59] Online1,72438%29.5%13.5%5%—14%—50%50%
11–15 June 2024Resolve Strategic [60] Online1,60736%28%14%6%1%15%—51%49%
3–9 June 2024Roy Morgan [61] Online1,68735%30.5%15.5%5.5%—13.5%—53.5%46.5%
3–7 June 2024Newspoll [62] Online1,23239%33%11%7%—10%—50%50%
31 May – 4 June 2024YouGov [63] Online1,50038%30%14%8%—10%—50%50%
29 May – 2 June 2024Essential [1] Online1,16036%32%13%5%3%8%4%48%48%
27 May – 2 June 2024Roy Morgan [64] Online1,57936%31%14%4.5%—14.5%—52%48%
20–26 May 2024Roy Morgan [65] Online1,48837%28.5%15%6%—13.5%—48.5%51.5%
17–19 May 2024Freshwater Strategy [66] Online1,05640%32%14%——14%—50%50%
16–19 May 2024Essential [1] Online1,14934%31%10%8%1%8%6%46%47%
15–19 May 2024Resolve Strategic [67] Online1,60236%29%12%7%2%14%—50%50%
13–19 May 2024Roy Morgan [68] Online1,67437%30.5%14.5%5.5%—12.5%—50.5%49.5%
16–18 May 2024Newspoll [69] Online1,28037%34%13%7%—9%—52%48%
10–14 May 2024YouGov [70] Online1,50638%30%13%8%—11%—50%50%
6–12 May 2024Roy Morgan [71] Online1,65437%32%13.5%5.5%—12%—52%48%
1–5 May 2024Essential [1] Online1,15034%31%13%7%1%7%7%46%47%
29 April – 5 May 2024Roy Morgan [72] Online1,66637%30%13%6%—14%—52%48%
22–28 April 2024Roy Morgan [73] Online1,71936.5%31.5%14%5.5%—12.5%—52%48%
19–23 April 2024YouGov [74] Online1,51436%33%13%8%—10%—52%48%
17–21 April 2024Essential [1] Online1,14535%31%11%9%1%9%4%47%49%
17–21 April 2024Resolve Strategic [75] Online1,61036%30%13%5%2%14%—50%50%
15–21 April 2024Roy Morgan [76] Online1,61735.5%30.5%16%5.5%—12.5%—52%48%
12–21 April 2024RedBridge Group [77] Online1,52937%33%12%7%—11%—52%48%
15–18 April 2024Newspoll [78] Online1,23638%33%12%7%—10%—51%49%
12–14 April 2024Freshwater Strategy [79] Online1,05540%31%13%——16%—50%50%
8–14 April 2024Roy Morgan [80] Online1,70638.5%30%13.5%5.5%—12.5%—49%51%
13 April 2024The Liberals are re-elected in the 2024 Cook by-election
3–7 April 2024Essential [1] Online1,16534%29%14%6%2%8%6%48%46%
1–7 April 2024Roy Morgan [81] Online1,73138%29.5%13.5%6%—13%—49.5%50.5%
25–31 March 2024Roy Morgan [82] Online1,67737.5%30%15.5%3.5%—13.5%—51%49%
22–27 March 2024YouGov [83] Online1,51338%32%13%7%—10%—51%49%
21–24 March 2024Resolve Strategic [84] Online1,61035%32%13%5%2%13%—53%47%
20–24 March 2024Essential [1] Online1,15036%29%11%7%3%7%6%44%50%
18–24 March 2024Roy Morgan [85] Online1,63338%31.5%14%4.5%—12%—50%50%
18–22 March 2024Newspoll [86] Online1,22337%32%13%7%—11%—51%49%
11–17 March 2024Roy Morgan [87] Online1,71037%31.5%12.5%5.5%—13.5%—51.5%48.5%
8–10 March 2024Freshwater Strategy [88] Online1,05139%31%14%——16%—51%49%
4–10 March 2024Roy Morgan [89] Online1,71438%32%13%4%—13%—51.5%48.5%
5–9 March 2024Essential [1] Online1,12635%32%11%8%2%8%5%48%47%
24 February –5 March 2024YouGov [90] Online1,53937%32%15%6%—10%—52%48%
26 February –3 March 2024Roy Morgan [91] Online1,67936.5%34%13.5%3.5%—12.5%—53.5%46.5%
2 March 2024Labor is re-elected in the 2024 Dunkley by-election
21–25 February 2024Essential [1] Online1,14535%30%13%7%2%8%4%47%48%
19–25 February 2024Roy Morgan [92] Online1,68238%31.5%12%5%—13.5%—50%50%
21–24 February 2024Resolve Strategic [93] Online1,60337%34%11%6%1%13%—52%48%
19–23 February 2024Newspoll [94] Online1,24536%33%12%6%—13%—52%48%
16–18 February 2024Freshwater Strategy [95] Online1,04938%31%14%——17%—51%49%
12–18 February 2024Roy Morgan [96] Online1,70637%34%13%4%—12%—52.5%47.5%
7–11 February 2024Essential [1] Online1,14834%31%14%7%1%9%5%50%46%
5–11 February 2024Roy Morgan [97] Online1,69937%34.5%12%4.5%—12%—52%48%
2–7 February 2024YouGov [98] Online1,50236%32%14%8%—10%—52%48%
30 January – 7 February 2024RedBridge Group [99] Online2,04038%33%13%——16%—51.2%48.8%
29 January – 4 February 2024Roy Morgan [100] Online1,70937%33%12%5%—13%—53%47%
31 January – 3 February 2024Newspoll [101] Online1,24536%34%12%7%—11%—52%48%
24–28 January 2024Essential [1] Online1,20134%32%13%7%2%7%5%48%46%
22–28 January 2024Roy Morgan [102] Online1,68837.5%31%13%5.5%—13%—50.5%49.5%
15–21 January 2024Roy Morgan [103] Online1,67536%32.5%12.5%5%—14%—52.5%47.5%
12–17 January 2024YouGov [104] Online1,53237%32%13%7%—11%—52%48%
8–14 January 2024Roy Morgan [105] Online1,72737%31.5%12%4.5%—15%—51.5%48.5%
10–11 January 2024Freshwater Strategy [106] [107] [108] Online1,00739%31%13%——16%—50%50%
2–7 January 2024Roy Morgan [109] Online1,71639%29%13%5%—14%—49%51%

2023

DateBrandInterview modeSample
size		Primary vote 2pp vote [a]
L/NP ALP GRN ONP UAP OTHUND ALP L/NP
15–17 December 2023Freshwater Strategy [110] Online1,10939%31%13%——16%—50%50%
11–17 December 2023Roy Morgan [111] Online1,10938%32%11.5%4.5%—14%—50%50%
11–15 December 2023Newspoll [112] Online1,21936%33%13%7%—11%—52%48%
6–11 December 2023Essential [1] Online1,10234%31%13%6%2%9%5%49%46%
6–11 December 2023RedBridge Group [113] Online2,01035%33%13%——19%—52.8%47.2%
1–5 December 2023YouGov [114] [115] Online1,55536%29%15%7%—13%—51%49%
29 November – 3 December 2023Resolve Strategic [116] [117] Online1,60534%35%12%5%1%12%—55%45%
27 November – 3 December 2023Roy Morgan [118] —1,73037.5%32.5%12.5%5%—12.5%—51%49%
22–26 November 2023Essential [1] Online1,15134%31%13%7%1%8%6%48%47%
20–26 November 2023Roy Morgan [119] —1,37935%32%13.5%5%—14.5%—52.5%47.5%
20–24 November 2023Newspoll [120] Online1,21638%31%13%6%—12%—50%50%
13–19 November 2023Roy Morgan [121] —1,40137.5%29.5%13.5%6.5%—13%—49.5%50.5%
10–14 November 2023YouGov [122] Online1,58236%31%13%7%—13%—51%49%
8–12 November 2023Essential [1] Online1,15034%32%12%7%2%8%5%49%47%
6–12 November 2023Roy Morgan [123] —1,39736.5%30%13%6%—14.5%—50%50%
1–5 November 2023Resolve Strategic [124] Online1,60230%35%13%7%2%13%—57%43%
30 October – 3 November 2023Newspoll [125] Online1,22037%35%12%6%—10%—52%48%
27 October – 2 November 2023RedBridge Group [126] Online1,20535%34%14%——17%—53.5%46.5%
25–29 October 2023Essential [1] Online1,14934%32%10%7%3%9%6%48%46%
23–29 October 2023Roy Morgan [127] —1,37535%32.5%15%——17.5%—53%47%
16–22 October 2023Roy Morgan [128] —1,38336%32%14%4.5%—13.5%—49.5%50.5%
14 October 2023The 2023 Australian Indigenous Voice referendum is defeated
4–12 October 2023Newspoll [129] Online2,63835%36%12%6%—11%—54%46%
6–10 October 2023YouGov [130] Online1,51936%33%14%6%—11%—53%47%
3–6 October 2023Newspoll [131] [132] Online1,22536%34%12%5%—13%—53%47%
22 September – 4 October 2023Resolve Strategic [133] [134] Online4,72831%37%12%7%2%11%—57%43%
27 September – 1 October 2023Essential [1] Online1,12532%33%14%6%2%7%5%50%45%
25–29 September 2023YouGov [135] [136] Online1,56335%33%13%——19%—53%47%
22–24 September 2023Freshwater Strategy [137] Online1,00337%33%13%——17%—51%49%
18–22 September 2023Newspoll [138] [139] Online1,23936%36%11%6%—11%—54%46%
13–17 September 2023Essential [1] Online1,13532%31%13%8%2%8%6%49%45%
4–10 September 2023Roy Morgan [140] —1,38237%32%13.5%——17.5%—52.5%47.5%
6–9 September 2023Resolve Strategic [141] [142] Online1,60434%36%12%5%2%11%—55.5%44.5%
30 August – 4 September 2023RedBridge Group [143] Online1,00136%37%13%——14%—54.1%45.9%
30 August – 3 September 2023Essential [1] Online1,15132%31%15%7%2%7%6%51%43%
28 August – 3 September 2023Roy Morgan [144] —1,40437.5%33.5%13%——16%—53%47%
28 August – 1 September 2023Newspoll [145] Online1,20037%35%13%7%—8%—53%47%
16–20 August 2023Essential [1] [146] Online1,15133%33%14%5%3%7%6%51%43%
10–14 August 2023RedBridge Group [147] Online1,01032%38%10%——21%—55.6%44.4%
9–13 August 2023Resolve Strategic [148] [149] Online1,60333%37%11%5%2%12%—56%44%
2–6 August 2023Essential [1] [150] Online1,15030%33%12%8%2%8%6%52%42%
19–23 July 2023Essential [1] [151] Online1,15032%31%14%7%1%9%6%50%45%
15 July 2023LNP is re-elected in the 2023 Fadden by-election
12–15 July 2023Resolve Strategic [152] [153] Online1,61030%39%11%6%1%11%—59%41%
12–15 July 2023Newspoll [154] [155] Online1,57034%36%12%7%—11%—55%45%
5–9 July 2023Essential [1] [156] Online2,24832%32%14%8%1%8%5%51%44%
21–25 June 2023Essential [1] Online1,14830%32%14%7%2%11%6%52%42%
16–24 June 2023Newspoll [157] [158] Online2,30335%38%11%6%—10%—54%46%
7–11 June 2023Essential [1] Online1,12332%32%16%5%1%9%5%52%42%
6–11 June 2023Resolve Strategic [159] [160] Online1,60630%40%12%6%2%10%—60%40%
31 May – 3 June 2023Newspoll [161] [162] Online1,54934%38%12%6%—10%—55%45%
24–28 May 2023Essential [1] Online1,13831%34%15%6%2%7%5%52%43%
15–17 May 2023Freshwater Strategy [163] [164] Online1,00537%34%12%——17%—52%48%
10–14 May 2023Essential [1] [165] Online1,08031%35%14%5%1%8%5%53%42%
11–13 May 2023Newspoll [166] [167] Online1,51634%38%11%7%—10%—55%45%
10–13 May 2023Resolve Strategic [168] [169] Online1,61030%42%12%5%2%8%2%61%39%
26–30 April 2023Essential [1] [170] Online1,13032%33%14%5%2%8%5%53%41%
19–22 April 2023Newspoll [171] [172] Online1,51433%38%11%7%—11%—56%44%
12–16 April 2023Essential [1] [173] Online1,13631%34%14%6%3%9%4%52%43%
12–16 April 2023Resolve Strategic [174] [175] Online1,60928%42%12%6%1%11%—61.5%38.5%
29 March – 2 April 2023Essential [1] [176] Online1,13330%33%14%6%2%10%5%53%42%
29 March – 1 April 2023Newspoll [177] Online1,50033%38%10%8%—11%—55%45%
1 April 2023Labor wins the 2023 Aston by-election
15–20 March 2023Essential [1] [178] Online1,12431%34%14%5%2%9%5%52%43%
12–16 March 2023Resolve Strategic [179] [178] Online1,60030%39%13%5%1%11%—60%40%
1–5 March 2023Essential [1] Online1,14132%32%12%7%2%10%7%49%44%
27 February – 5 March 2023Roy Morgan——33.5%38%11.5%——17%—54.5%45.5%
1–4 March 2023Newspoll [180] Online1,53035%37%10%7%—11%—54%46%
20–26 February 2023Roy Morgan——34.5%37%13.5%——15%—56.5%43.5%
15–19 February 2023Essential [1] Online1,04430%33%14%6%3%8%8%51%42%
15–19 February 2023Resolve Strategic [181] [182] Online1,60431%40%10%5%1%11%—58%42%
13–19 February 2023Roy MorganOnline/Telephone—33%37%13%——17%—58.5%41.5%
1–6 February 2023Essential [1] Online1,00030%33%17%6%1%15%5%55%40%
1–4 February 2023Newspoll [183] [184] Online1,51234%38%11%6%1%10%—55%45%
23–29 January 2023Roy Morgan——33.5%37.5%11.5%——17.5%—57%43%
18–22 January 2023Essential [1] [185] Online1,05031%34%14%8%1%7%5%53%42%
17–22 January 2023Resolve Strategic [186] [185] Online1,60629%42%11%6%2%11%—60%40%

2022

DateBrandInterview modeSample
size		Primary vote 2pp vote [a]
L/NP ALP GRN ONP UAP OTHUND ALP L/NP
23 December 2022 Andrew Gee leaves the Nationals to become an Independent
16–18 December 2022Freshwater Strategy [187] [188] [189] Online1,20937%37%12%4%1%9%—54%46%
7–11 December 2022Essential [1] Online1,04230%35%13%6%3%8%5%51%44%
30 November – 4 December 2022Resolve Strategic [190] [191] Online1,61130%42%11%4%2%8%—60%40%
30 November – 3 December 2022Newspoll [192] Online1,50835%39%11%6%1%9%—55%45%
23–27 November 2022 Essential [192] [193] Online1,04231%33%13%——17%6%51%43%
27–30 October 2022Newspoll-YouGov [194] Online1,50035%38%11%6%1%9%—55%45%
26–30 October 2022Resolve Strategic [195] [194] Online1,61132%39%13%4%1%11%—58%42%
5–9 October 2022Resolve Strategic [196] [197] Online1,60430%39%12%5%3%11%—58.5%41.5%
14–18 September 2022Resolve Strategic [198] [199] Online1,60732%39%10%6%2%11%—56.5%43.5%
31 August – 3 September 2022Newspoll-YouGov [200] [201] Online1,50531%37%13.5%7%2%10%—57%43%
17–21 August 2022Resolve Strategic [202] [203] Online2,01128%42%12%5%2%11%—61%39%
27–30 July 2022 Newspoll-YouGov [204] [205] Online1,50833%37%12%6%2%10%—56%44%
14–17 June 2022Dynata [206] Online1,00131%34%12%4%4%7%9%52.2%47.8%
13–19 June 2022 Roy Morgan [207] Online/telephone1,40137%36%11%4%0.5%11.5%—53%47%
29 May 2022 Peter Dutton elected unopposed as Leader of the Liberal Party [208]
21 May 2022 Election [209] [210] 35.7%32.6%12.2%5.0%4.1%10.4%—52.1%47.9%
  1. 1 2 3 Resolve Strategic Poll 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2022 Australian federal election by the Poll Bludger and Kevin Bonham.

Preferred prime minister and leadership polling

Graphical summary

The following graphical summaries illustrate results from opinion polling for preferred Prime Minister and their respective approval ratings based on data below that is documented in the tables.

Preferred prime minister

Australian Federal Election Polling - 48th Parliament - PPM.svg

Leadership approval ratings

Albanese

Australian Federal Election Polling - 48th Parliament - Albanese Approval.svg

Dutton

Australian Federal Election - 48th Parliament - Dutton Approval.svg

Preferred prime minister and leadership polling table

2024
DateFirmInterview modeSamplePreferred prime minister Albanese Dutton
AlbaneseDuttonDon't KnowNetSatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't KnowNetSatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't KnowNet
15–21 November 2024YouGov [5] Online1,51542%39%19%3%36%56%8%−20%40%48%12%−8%
13–18 November 2024Essential [211] Online1,206————43%48%10%−5%42%41%16%+1%
15–17 November 2024Freshwater Strategy [6] Online1,04643%42%15%1%33%50%17%−17%37%41%22%−4%
5–10 November 2024Resolve Strategic [9] [10] Online1,62137%37%26%0%37%51%12%−14%45%40%15%+5%
4-8 November 2024Newspoll [12] Online1,26145%41%14%4%40%55%5%−15%40%51%9%−11%
18–20 October 2024Freshwater Strategy [15] Online1,03444%43%13%1%35%49%16%−14%37%39%24%−2%
16–20 October 2024Essential [212] Online1,140————44%48%8%−4%45%39%16%+6%
4–16 October 2024RedBridge Group [213] Online2,315————34%53%13%−19%39%42%19%−3%
7–11 October 2024Newspoll [18] Online1,25845%37%18%8%40%54%6%−14%38%52%10%−14%
1–5 October 2024Resolve Strategic [20] Online1,60638%35%27%3%35%52%13%−17%41%41%18%0%
18–22 September 2024Essential [214] Online1,117————42%47%11%−5%42%42%16%0%
16–20 September 2024Newspoll [23] Online1,24946%37%17%9%43%51%6%−8%37%52%11%−15%
13–19 September 2024YouGov [24] Online1,61942%39%19%3%36%58%6%−22%40%50%10%−10%
13–15 September 2024Freshwater Strategy [215] Online1,05745%41%14% [a] 4%34%49%17%−15%34%38%28%−4%
3–7 September 2024Resolve Strategic [28] Online1,61435%34%31%1%35%53%12%−18%41%42%17%−1%
26–30 August 2024Newspoll [30] Online1,26345%37%18%8%41%54%5%−13%39%52%9%−13%
23–28 August 2024YouGov [34] Online1,54343%38%19%5%41%52%7%−11%42%47%11%−5%
20–24 August 2024Essential [216] Online1,129————40%50%10%−10%42%41%16%+1%
16–18 August 2024Freshwater Strategy [40] Online1,06145%41%14% [b] 4%35%45%20%−10%37%40%23%−3%
7–11 August 2024Resolve Strategic [42] Online1,60735%36%29%1%34%51%15%−17%41%38%21%+3%
5–9 August 2024Newspoll [44] Online1,26646%39%15%7%43%51%6%−8%40%50%10%−10%
24–28 July 2024Essential [217] Online1,137————43%46%11%−3%42%41%17%+1%
19–21 July 2024Freshwater Strategy [218] Online1,06045%39%16% [c] 6%34%48%18%−14%36%39%25%−3%
15–19 July 2024Newspoll [218] Online1,25846%39%15%6%44%51%5%−7%41%49%10%−8%
12–17 July 2024YouGov [51] Online1,52845%37%18%8%42%52%6%−10%42%46%12%−4%
10–13 July 2024Resolve Strategic [53] Online1,60334%35%31%1%32%54%14%−22%39%40%21%−1%
26–30 June 2024Essential [219] Online1,141————40%49%11%−9%41%42%17%−1%
24–28 June 2024Newspoll [56] Online1,26046%38%16%8%42%53%5%−11%38%54%8%−16%
14–16 June 2024Freshwater Strategy [58] Online1,06043%41%16% [d] 2%34%46%20%−12%35%40%25%−5%
11–15 June 2024Resolve Strategic [60] Online1,60735%36%29%1%36%50%14%−14%42%40%19%+2%
3–7 June 2024Newspoll [62] Online1,23246%38%16%8%43%50%7%−7%39%49%12%−10%
31 May – 4 June 2024YouGov [63] Online1,50047%36%17%9%41%53%6%–12%38%51%11%−13%
29 May – 2 June 2024Essential [220] Online1,160————43%47%11%−4%41%42%17%−1%
17–19 May 2024Freshwater Strategy [66] Online1,05646%37%16% [e] 9%37%46%18%−9%31%40%29%−9%
15–19 May 2024Resolve Strategic [67] Online1,60240%32%28%8%39%49%12%−10%39%42%19%−3%
16–18 May 2024Newspoll [69] Online1,28052%33%15%19%47%47%6%0%38%50%12%−12%
10–14 May 2024YouGov [70] Online1,50644%37%19%7%41%53%6%−12%42%48%10%−6%
17–21 April 2024Essential [221] Online1,145————43%48%9%−5%44%41%15%+3%
17–21 April 2024YouGov [f] [222] Online1,09237%45%18%8%————————
17–21 April 2024Resolve Strategic [75] Online1,61041%32%27%9%43%45%12%−2%40%42%17%−2%
15–18 April 2024Newspoll [78] Online1,23648%35%17%13%44%50%6%−6%36%51%13%−15%
12–14 April 2024Freshwater Strategy [79] Online1,05545%39%16% [g] 6%38%45%17%−7%32%41%27%−9%
22–27 March 2024YouGov [83] Online1,51346%34%20%12%41%52%7%−11%38%49%13%−11%
21–24 March 2024Resolve Strategic [84] Online1,61040%30%30%10%38%49%13%−11%36%44%20%−8%
18–22 March 2024Newspoll [86] Online1,22348%34%18%14%44%51%5%−7%37%52%11%−15%
8–10 March 2024Freshwater Strategy [88] Online1,05147%38%15% [h] 9%37%45%18%−8%30%43%27%−13%
24 February – 5 March 2024YouGov [90] Online1,53948%34%18%14%44%50%6%−6%39%49%12%−10%
21–25 February 2024Essential [223] Online1,145————42%47%10%−5%40%44%16%−4%
21–24 February 2024Resolve Strategic [93] Online1,60339%32%29%7%41%47%12%−6%35%45%20%−10%
19–23 February 2024Newspoll [94] Online1,24547%35%18%12%43%51%6%−8%37%51%12%−14%
16–18 February 2024Freshwater Strategy [224] Online1,04942%38%19% [i] 4%38%45%18%−7%32%41%28%−9%
2–7 February 2024YouGov [98] Online1,50245%38%17%7%———−16%———−8%
31 January – 3 February 2024Newspoll [101] [225] Online1,24546%35%19%11%42%51%7%−9%37%50%13%−13%
24–28 January 2024Essential [226] Online1,201————41%47%12%−6%38%43%19%−5%
12–17 January 2024YouGov [104] Online1,53245%35%20%10%———−13%———−11%
10–11 January 2024Freshwater Strategy [106] [107] [108] Online1,00747%38%15% [j] 9%38%43%19%−5%31%40%30%−9%
2023
DateFirmInterview modeSamplePreferred prime minister Albanese Dutton
AlbaneseDuttonDon't KnowSatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't KnowNetSatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't KnowNet
15–17 December 2023Freshwater Strategy [110] Online1,10943%39%18% [k] 37%42%20%−5%34%36%30%−2%
11–15 December 2023Newspoll [112] Online1,21946%35%19%42%50%8%−8%39%48%13%−9%
1–5 December 2023YouGov [114] [115] Online1,55546%36%18%39%55%6%−16%39%48%13%−9%
29 November – 3 December 2023Resolve Strategic [116] Online1,60542%28%30%37%48%15%−11%34%42%24%−8%
22–26 November 2023Essential [227] Online1,151———42%47%12%−5%39%42%19%−3%
20–24 November 2023Newspoll [120] Online1,21646%35%19%40%53%7%−13%37%50%13%−13%
10–14 November 2023YouGov [122] [228] Online1,58248%34%18%43%50%7%−7%40%47%13%−7%
1–5 November 2023Resolve Strategic [124] Online1,60240%27%33%39%46%15%−7%36%40%25%−4%
30 October – 3 November 2023Newspoll [125] Online1,22046%36%18%42%52%6%−10%37%50%13%−13%
11–14 October 2023Essential [229] Online1,125———46%43%11%+3%36%43%21%−7%
4–12 October 2023Newspoll [129] Online2,63851%31%18%46%46%8%0%35%53%12%−18%
6–10 October 2023YouGov [130] [228] Online1,51950%34%16%45%48%7%−3%38%50%12%−12%
3–6 October 2023Newspoll [131] [132] Online1,22550%33%17%45%46%9%−1%37%50%13%−13%
22 September – 4 October 2023Resolve Strategic [133] [134] Online1,60447%25%28%43%43%14%0%30%45%25%−15%
25–29 September 2023YouGov [135] [228] Online1,56350%33%17%————————
22–24 September 2023Freshwater Strategy [137] Online1,00346%37%17% [l] 38%41%21%−3%30%40%30%−10%
18–22 September 2023Newspoll [138] [139] Online1,23950%30%20%47%44%9%+3%32%52%16%−20%
6–9 September 2023Resolve Strategic [141] [142] Online1,60443%28%29%40%47%13%−7%35%43%22%−8%
30 August – 3 September 2023Essential [230] Online1,151———46%43%10%+3%38%43%19%−5%
28 August – 1 September 2023Newspoll [145] Online1,20050%31%19%46%47%7%−1%38%49%13%−11%
9–13 August 2023Resolve Strategic [148] [149] Online1,60346%25%29%44%42%14%+2%31%44%24%−13%
19–23 July 2023Essential [151] [231] Online1,150———48%41%11%+7%37%43%20%−6%
12–15 July 2023Resolve Strategic [152] [153] Online1,61051%21%28%51%34%15%+17%31%47%23%−16%
12–15 July 2023Newspoll [154] Online1,57054%29%17%52%41%7%+11%36%49%15%−13%
16–24 June 2023Newspoll [157] Online2,30352%32%16%52%42%6%+10%38%49%13%−11%
29 May – 12 June 2023CT Group [232] Online3,000———42%36%22%+6%————
6–11 June 2023Resolve Strategic [159] [160] Online1,60653%22%25%53%35%13%+18%28%48%24%−20%
31 May – 3 June 2023Newspoll [161] Online1,54955%28%17%55%37%8%+18%36%50%14%−14%
15–17 May 2023Freshwater Strategy [163] [164] Online1,00551%33%16% [m] 42%37%21%+5%30%42%28%−12%
10–14 May 2023Essential [233] Online1,125———54%35%11%+19%36%45%19%−9%
11–13 May 2023Newspoll [166] [167] Online1,51656%29%15%57%38%5%+19%36%51%13%−15%
10–13 May 2023Resolve Strategic [168] [169] Online1,61053%20%27%56%29%14%+27%28%49%23%−21%
19–22 April 2023Newspoll [171] [172] Online1,51454%28%18%53%37%10%+16%33%52%15%−19%
12–16 April 2023Essential [234] Online1,136———51%36%12%+15%36%44%20%−8%
12–16 April 2023Resolve Strategic [174] [175] Online1,60955%21%24%56%29%14%+27%26%54%19%−28%
29 March – 2 April 2023Essential [235] Online1,133———52%35%13%+17%————
29 March – 1 April 2023NewspollOnline1,50058%26%16%56%35%9%+21%35%48%21%−13%
12–16 March 2023Resolve Strategic [179] [178] Online1,60051%22%27%55%31%13%+24%32%44%25%−12%
1–4 March 2023NewspollOnline1,53054%28%18%55%38%7%+17%37%48%15%−11%
15–21 February 2023Morning Consult—————57%31%12%+26%————
15–19 February 2023Essential [236] Online1,044———53%34%13%+19%————
15–19 February 2023Resolve Strategic [181] [182] Online1,60455%23%22%56%30%13%+26%29%45%26%−16%
1–4 February 2023Newspoll [183] [184] Online1,51256%26%18%57%33%10%+24%36%46%18%−10%
18–22 January 2023Essential [237] Online1,050———55%31%13%+24%————
17–22 January 2023Resolve Strategic [186] [185] Online1,60655%20%25%60%25%15%+35%28%46%26%−18%
2022
DateFirmInterview modeSamplePreferred prime minister Albanese Dutton
AlbaneseDuttonDon't KnowSatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't KnowNetSatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't KnowNet
16–18 December 2022Freshwater Strategy [187] [188] [189] Online1,20955%29%16% [n] ––––––––
7–11 December 2022Essential [238] Online1,042–––60%27%13%+33%––––
30 November – 4 December 2022Resolve Strategic [190] [191] Online1,61154%19%27%60%24%16%+36%28%43%29%–15%
30 November – 3 December 2022Newspoll [192] Online1,50859%24%17%62%29%9%+33%36%45%19%–9%
16–22 November 2022Morning Consult [239] Online—–––56%31%25%+25%––––
9–14 November 2022Essential [240] Online1,035–––60%27%13%+33%––––
27–30 October 2022Newspoll [194] Online1,50054%27%19%59%33%8%+26%39%46%15%–7%
26–30 October 2022Resolve Strategic [195] [194] [241] Online1,61153%19%28%57%28%16%+29%29%41%30%–12%
13–16 October 2022Freshwater Strategic [o] [242] Online1,042–––50%26%24%+24%33%34%33%–1%
11–16 October 2022Essential [243] Online1,122–––58%26%15%+32%––––
5–9 October 2022Resolve Strategic [196] [197] Online1,60453%18%29%60%25%15%+35%30%41%28%–11%
14–18 September 2022Resolve Strategic [198] [199] Online1,60753%19%28%60%24%16%+36%28%40%32%–12%
31 August – 4 September 2022Essential [244] Online1,070———59%25%15%+34%————
31 August – 3 September 2022Newspoll [200] Online1,50561%22%17%61%29%10%+32%35%43%22%–8%
17–21 August 2022Resolve Strategic [202] [203] Online2,01155%17%28%61%22%17%+39%30%37%32%–7%
3–7 August 2022Essential [245] Online1,075———55%28%18%+27%————
27–30 July 2022[Newspoll] [204] Online1,50859%25%16%61%26%13%+35%37%41%22%–4%
7–11 July 2022Essential [246] Online1,097———56%24%20%+32%————
8–12 June 2022 Essential [247] Online1,087———59%18%23%+41%————
23–31 May 2022 Morning Consult [248] Online3,770———51%24%25%+27%————
  1. ↑ Total of 3% "Unsure" + 11% "Neither"
  2. ↑ Total of 3% "Unsure" + 11% "Neither"
  3. ↑ Total of 4% "Unsure" + 12% "Neither"
  4. ↑ Total of 4% "Unsure" + 12% "Neither"
  5. ↑ Total of 4% "Unsure" + 12% "Neither"
  6. ↑ Polling conducted in Queensland.
  7. ↑ Total of 4% "Unsure" + 12% "Neither"
  8. ↑ Total of 4% "Unsure" + 11% "Neither"
  9. ↑ Total of 3% "Unsure" + 16% "Neither"
  10. ↑ Total of 3% "Unsure" + 12% "Neither"
  11. ↑ Total of 5% "Unsure" + 13% "Neither"
  12. ↑ Total of 3% "Unsure" + 14% "Neither"
  13. ↑ Total of 5% "Unsure" + 11% "Neither"
  14. ↑ Total of 4% "Unsure" + 12% "Neither"
  15. ↑ Polling conducted in NSW.

Sub-national polling

New South Wales

Graphical summary

Graphical summary of opinion polls for primary votes.
Graphical summary of opinion polls for two-party preferred.
Polling
DateFirmSample
size		Primary vote 2pp vote [a]
L/NP ALP GRN ONP UAP IND OTH ALP L/NP
1–5 October 2024Resolve Strategic [249] 51039%31%10%5%—11%4%49.5%50.5%
15 July – 20 September 2024Newspoll [249] 1,59238%30%12%7%——13%49%51%
3–7 September 2024Resolve Strategic [249] 51337%30%12%6%1%12%3%50.5%49.5%
7–11 August 2024Resolve Strategic [249] 51039%29%12%4%2%9%4%49%51%
10–13 July 2024Resolve Strategic [249] 50939%27%13%6%1%12%2%48.5%51.5%
15 April – 26 June 2024Newspoll [249] 1,56740%33%11%6%——10%49%51%
11–16 June 2024Resolve Strategic [249] 51037%29%12%5%2%12%3%50%50%
15–19 May 2024Resolve Strategic [249] 51135%31%10%7%1%13%2%51%49%
17–21 April 2024Resolve Strategic [249] 51135%31%11%6%1%12%4%51.5%48.5%
21–24 March 2024Resolve Strategic [249] 51135%33%11%6%2%12%2%52.5%47.5%
31 January – 22 March 2024Newspoll [249] 1,15238%32%12%7%——11%50%50%
21–24 February 2024Resolve Strategic [249] 50937%34%10%4%1%10%4%52%48%
31 October – 15 December 2023Newspoll [249] 1,13937%32%13%7%——11%51%49%
29 November – 3 December 2023Resolve Strategic [249] 51035%35%12%5%1%10%2%54.5%45.5%
1–5 November 2023Resolve Strategic [249] 50931%37%14%6%1%8%4%58%42%
28 August – 12 October 2023Newspoll [249] 1,56534%38%13%5%——10%56%44%
22 September – 4 October 2023Resolve Strategic [133] 1,50232%34%13%8%2%10%2%55%45%
6–9 September 2023Resolve Strategic [141] 50936%39%8%6%2%7%3%54%46%
9–12 August 2023Resolve Strategic [148] 50934%42%11%4%1%8%1%58%42%
12–15 July 2023Resolve Strategic [152] 51132%39%10%9%0%8%2%56.5%43.5%
6–11 June 2023Resolve Strategic [159] 51033%39%10%6%1%9%2%56.5%43.5%
14–16 May 2023Resolve Strategic [168] 51130%46%9%5%1%7%2%61%39%
21 April 2023 Mark Speakman is elected leader of the NSW Liberal Party
12–16 April 2023Resolve Strategic [249] 51130%43%9%6%1%8%2%59.5%40.5%
1 February – 3 April 2023Newspoll [249] 1,41435%38%10%7%——10%55%45%
25 March 2023Labor wins a minority government at the state election
12–16 March 2023Resolve Strategic [249] 50835%39%11%5%1%7%2%55.5%44.5%
15–19 February 2023Resolve Strategic [249] 50931%41%10%6%1%9%2%58.5%41.5%
17–22 January 2023Resolve Strategic [249] 51231%40%10%8%2%7%2%57.5%42.5%
30 November – 4 December 2022Resolve Strategic [249] 51233%38%12%5%3%8%2%56.5%43.5%
27 July – 3 December 2022Newspoll [249] 1,81735%38%11%6%——10%55%45%
26–30 October 2022Resolve Strategic [195] 51232%41%10%6%1%8%2%57.9%42.1%
5–9 October 2022Resolve Strategic [196] 50932%39%12%6%3%7%2%57%43%
14–18 September 2022Resolve Strategic [198] 51029%41%9%7%3%9%3%58.5%41.5%
17–21 August 2022Resolve Strategic [202] 63929%42%11%5%2%8%3%60.5%39.5%
21 June 2022Roy Morgan [207] ————————46.5%53.5%
21 May 2022 Election 36.5%33.4%10%4.8%4%7.6%3.7%51.4%48.6%
  1. ↑ Resolve Strategic 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2022 Australian federal election in New South Wales.

Victoria

Graphical summary

Graphical summary of opinion polls for primary votes.
Graphical summary of opinion polls for two-party preferred.
Polling
DateFirmSample
size		Primary vote 2pp vote [a]
L/NP ALP GRN UAP ONP IND OTH ALP L/NP
1–5 October 2024Resolve Strategic [249] 40537%29%14%—5%9%5%50.5%49.5%
15 July – 20 September 2024Newspoll [249] 1,26338%31%13%—6%—12%52%48%
3–7 September 2024Resolve Strategic [249] 40736%29%13%2%4%12%4%51.5%48.5%
7–11 August 2024Resolve Strategic [249] 40533%30%13%1%6%13%3%53.5%46.5%
10–13 July 2024Resolve Strategic [249] 40436%30%15%2%5%11%2%52.5%47.5%
15 April – 26 June 2024Newspoll [249] 39336%33%15%—6%—10%54%46%
11–16 June 2024Resolve Strategic [249] 40532%29%15%1%7%11%4%54%46%
15–19 May 2024Resolve Strategic [249] 40634%29%14%2%6%12%2%52.5%47.5%
17–21 April 2024Resolve Strategic [249] 40634%32%11%4%5%12%2%52.5%47.5%
21–24 March 2024Resolve Strategic [249] 40635%35%13%2%5%9%2%54.5%45.5%
31 January – 22 March 2024Newspoll [249] 92634%33%16%—5%—12%55%45%
21–24 February 2024Resolve Strategic [249] 40434%32%13%2%4%8%7%54%46%
31 October – 15 December 2023Newspoll [249] 91734%34%15%—5%—12%55%45%
29 November – 3 December 2023Resolve Strategic [249] 40534%37%11%1%4%9%4%55.5%44.5%
1–5 November 2023Resolve Strategic [249] 40425%37%14%3%8%9%4%60.5%39.5%
28 August – 12 October 2023Newspoll [249] 88735%36%13%—4%—12%54%46%
Daniel Andrews resigns as Premier of Victoria, replaced by Jacinta Allan
22 September – 4 October 2023Resolve Strategic [133] 1,19230%39%11%2%6%8%2%58%42%
6–9 September 2023Resolve Strategic [141] 40432%40%13%2%3%8%2%58.5%41.5%
9–12 August 2023Resolve Strategic [148] 40430%38%14%1%3%10%4%59.5%40.5%
12–15 July 2023Resolve Strategic [152] 40626%42%13%2%5%9%3%58%42%
6–11 June 2023Resolve Strategic [159] 40525%40%15%3%6%7%4%62.5%37.5%
14–16 May 2023Resolve Strategic [168] 40625%48%12%1%4%7%2%66%34%
12–16 April 2023Resolve Strategic [249] 40632%39%11%2%3%11%3%57.5%42.5%
1 February – 3 April 2023Newspoll [249] 1,19333%41%11%—4%—11%58%42%
12–16 March 2023Resolve Strategic [249] 40329%43%9%1%6%8%4%60%40%
15–19 February 2023Resolve Strategic [249] 40427%40%14%2%3%11%2%62%38%
17–22 January 2023Resolve Strategic [249] 40631%41%13%2%3%7%4%59.5%40.5%
30 November – 4 December 2022Resolve Strategic [249] 40627%46%11%2%2%7%5%63.5%36.5%
26 November 2022Labor wins a third term at the state election
27 July – 3 December 2022Newspoll [249] 1,44833%37%13%—5%—12%57%43%
26–30 October 2022Resolve Strategic [195] 40632%39%12%2%2%11%3%58%42%
5–9 October 2022Resolve Strategic [196] 40430%40%10%5%4%9%3%58%42%
14–18 September 2022Resolve Strategic [198] 40530%38%14%2%3%8%5%59.5%40.5%
17–21 August 2022Resolve Strategic [202] 50724%42%11%3%5%10%5%63%37%
21 June 2022Roy Morgan [207] ————————60.5%39.5%
21 May 2022 Election 33.1%32.9%13.7%4.7%3.8%6.5%5.3%54.8%45.2%
  1. ↑ Resolve Strategic 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2022 Australian federal election in Victoria.

Queensland

Graphical summary

Graphical summary of opinion polls for primary votes.
Graphical summary of opinion polls for two-party preferred.
Polling
DateFirmSample
size		Primary vote 2pp vote [a]
LNP ALP GRN ONP UAP IND OTH LNP ALP
26 October 2024 State Election 41.5%32.6%9.9%8.0%—1.7%6.3%53.8%46.2%
26 October 2024LNP wins a majority government at the state election
4–16 October 2024RedBridge Group [213] 2,31541%28%13%10%——8%54.5%45.5%
1–5 October 2024Resolve Strategic [249] 32742%25%12%6%—13%2%55.5%44.5%
15 July – 20 September 2024Newspoll [249] 1,05343%30%12%8%——7%54%46%
3–7 September 2024Resolve Strategic [249] 32840%27%13%9%2%9%1%53.5%46.5%
7–11 August 2024Resolve Strategic [249] 32741%24%11%10%2%8%4%56%44%
10–13 July 2024Resolve Strategic [249] 32644%23%10%7%0%14%1%57.5%42.5%
15 April – 26 June 2024Newspoll [249] 32840%27%13%10%——10%54%46%
11–16 June 2024Resolve Strategic [249] 32740%24%13%8%1%11%3%54.5%45.5%
15–19 May 2024Resolve Strategic [249] 32743%26%12%8%3%8%1%55.5%44.5%
17–21 April 2024Resolve Strategic [249] 32740%25%14%9%2%8%2%54%46%
21–24 March 2024Resolve Strategic [249] 32736%30%14%7%1%9%2%49%51%
31 January – 22 March 2024Newspoll [249] 77241%29%12%7%——11%53%47%
21–24 February 2024Resolve Strategic [249] 32644%32%9%9%2%3%1%54.5%45.5%
Annastacia Palaszczuk resigns as Premier of Queensland, replaced by Steven Miles
31 October – 15 December 2023Newspoll [249] 76441%27%12%8%——12%54%46%
29 November – 3 December 2023Resolve Strategic [249] 32638%33%12%8%2%8%0%49.5%50.5%
1–5 November 2023Resolve Strategic [249] 32636%31%12%11%1%6%3%50%50%
28 August – 12 October 2023Newspoll [249] 88739%30%11%9%——11%52%48%
22 September – 4 October 2023Resolve Strategic [133] 96134%33%11%9%1%10%1%48%52%
6–9 September 2023Resolve Strategic [141] 32635%29%16%9%2%7%2%49%51%
9–12 August 2023Resolve Strategic [148] 32640%28%9%8%2%10%3%54%46%
12–15 July 2023Resolve Strategic [152] 32736%33%12%6%2%10%1%48%52%
6–11 June 2023Resolve Strategic [159] 32731%38%10%11%2%7%1%45%55%
14–16 May 2023Resolve Strategic [168] 32739%27%17%7%3%6%2%51.5%48.5%
12–16 April 2023Resolve Strategic [249] 32729%37%15%8%2%7%2%42.5%57.5%
1 February – 3 April 2023Newspoll [249] 99539%33%10%8%——10%50%50%
12–16 March 2023Resolve Strategic [249] 32524%39%14%6%1%14%2%38.5%61.5%
15–19 February 2023Resolve Strategic [249] 32635%39%10%9%1%0%5%46%54%
17–22 January 2023Resolve Strategic [249] 32830%38%11%9%1%8%2%43.5%56.5%
30 November – 4 December 2022Resolve Strategic [249] 32834%43%7%6%1%6%2%44%56%
27 July – 3 December 2022Newspoll [249] 1,20740%33%12%6%——9%51%49%
26–30 October 2022Resolve Strategic [195] 32832%36%16%4%2%6%4%43%57%
5–9 October 2022Resolve Strategic [196] 32638%31%14%6%2%7%2%50%50%
14–18 September 2022Resolve Strategic [198] 32731%42%7%10%2%7%2%44%56%
17–21 August 2022Resolve Strategic [202] 40931%37%16%6%2%6%3%42.5%57.5%
21 June 2022Roy Morgan [207] ————————50%50%
21 May 2022 Election 39.6%27.4%12.9%7.5%5.1%2.1%5.4%54%46%
  1. ↑ Resolve Strategic 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2022 Australian federal election in Queensland.

Western Australia

Graphical summary

Graphical summary of opinion polls for primary voting.
Graphical summary of opinion polls for two-party preferred.
Polling
DateFirmSample
size		Primary vote 2pp vote
ALP L/NP GRN ONP UAP OTHUND ALP L/NP
30 October – 4 November 2024DemosAU [250] 94834%38%14%6%—8%—52%48%
1–10 October 2024Redbridge [251] 1,51435%34%—————54.5%45.5%
15 July – 20 September 2024Newspoll [249] 36%39%11%4%—10%—52%48%
15 April – 26 June 2024Newspoll [249] 15634%37%11%5%—13%—52%48%
31 January – 22 March 2024Newspoll [249] 36834%39%8%6%—13%—49%51%
31 October – 15 December 2023Newspoll [249] 36437%37%11%5%—10%—54%46%
6–13 December 2023RedBridge [252] 1,20339%37%12%5%—7%—55.2%44.8%
28 August – 12 October 2023Newspoll [249] 62038%38%10%6%—8%—53%47%
Mark McGowan resigns as Premier of Western Australia, replaced by Roger Cook
1 February – 3 April 2023Newspoll [249] 47440%33%11%6%—14%—57%43%
Libby Mettam replaces David Honey as the WA Liberal leader
27 July – 3 December 2022Newspoll [249] 57539%34%9%7%—11%—55%45%
21 June 2022Roy Morgan [207] 144———————50.5%49.5%
21 May 2022 Election 36.8%34.8%12.5%4%2.3%9.6%—55%45%

South Australia

Graphical summary

Graphical summary of opinion polls for primary voting.
Graphical summary of opinion polls for two-party preferred.
Polling
DateFirmSample
size		Primary vote 2pp vote
L/NP ALP GRN ONP UAP OTHUND ALP L/NP
15 July – 20 September 2024Newspoll [249] 37435%36%9%10%—10%—54%46%
15 April – 26 June 2024Newspoll [249] 36834%34%11%12%—9%—53%47%
31 January – 22 March 2024Newspoll [249] 27833%35%11%10%—11%—54%46%
31 October – 15 December 2023Newspoll [249] 27735%38%10%6%—11%—55%45%
28 August – 12 October 2023Newspoll [249] 36230%40%10%11%—9%—57%43%
1 February – 3 April 2023Newspoll [249] 36235%38%12%5%—10%—56%44%
27 July – 3 December 2022Newspoll [249] 44935%40%12%6%—7%—57%43%
21 June 2022Roy Morgan [207] 103———————60.5%39.5%
21 May 2022 Election 35.54%34.46%12.77%4.83%3.89%8.51%—53.97%46.03%

Tasmania

Graphical summary

Graphical summary of opinion polls for two-party preferred.
Polling
DateFirmSample
size		Primary vote 2pp vote
L/NP ALP GRN JLN UAP IND OTH ALP L/NP
23 March 2024 State Election 36.7%29%13.9%6.7%—8%5.7%
28 August – 12 October 2023Newspoll [249] 36625%30%13%——27%57%43%
21 June 2022Roy Morgan [207] ————————63%37%
21 May 2022 Election 32.9%27.3%12%-11.2%10.8%54.3%45.7%

Northern Territory

Graphical summary

Polling

DateFirmSample
size		Primary vote 2pp vote [a]
CLP ALP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP CLP
23 March 2024 Territory Election 48.9%28.8%8.1%—14.2%—42.6%57.4%
16–18 November 2023Redbridge Group [254] 60140.4%22.2%11.1%11.7%7.2%7.4%43.9%56.1%
21 May 2022 Election 29.4%38.2%13.1%5.4%1.3%12.7%55.5%44.5%

Individual seat polling

Occasionally, opinion polling is conducted in individual electoral divisions.

New South Wales

Cook

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN IND OTH LIB ALP GRN
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [36] [37] ——57%25%6%—12%64%36%—
13 April 2024 By-election 62.7%—16.4%5.7%15.2%71.3%—28.7%
28 March 2024 uComms [b] 914± 3.6%53%—17%12%10%65%—35%
21 May 2022 Election 55.3%25.0%9.9%—9.8%62.4%37.6%—

Gilmore

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [36] [37] ——44%29%9%——18%44%56%
21 May 2022 Election 42.0%36.0%10.2%4.0%4.2%3.6%50.2%49.8%

Mackellar

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2cp vote
LIB IND ALP GRN OTHUND IND LIB
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [36] [37] ——43%—11%7%39%—53%47%
5 February 2024 uComms [b] 602±3.85%35.3%30.4%13.2%5.8%4.5%10.8%54.0%46.0%
21 May 2022 Election 41.4%38.1%8.6%6.1%6.1%—52.5%47.5%

Paterson

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP OTH ALP LIB
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [36] [37] ——32%42%9%—17%46%54%
21 May 2022 Election 40.7%36.7%7.6%8.2%6.9%53.3%46.7%

Wentworth

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2cp vote
LIB IND ALP GRN OTHUND IND LIB
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [36] [37] ——40%—17%9%33%—55%45%
5 February 2024 uComms [b] 643±3.85%35.5%32.1%13.1%10.0%2.9%6.3%57.0%43.0%
21 May 2022 Election 40.5%35.8%10.7%8.3%4.6%—54.2%45.8%

Victoria

Aston

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN INDOTH LIB ALP
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [36] [37] ——47%30%11%—11%56%44%
1 April 2023 By-election 39.1%40.9%10.1%7.0%2.9%46.4%53.6%
21 May 2022 Election 43.1%32.6%12.1%—12.3%52.8%47.2%

Dunkley

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN LP OTH ALP LIB
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [36] [37] ——38%36%9%—18%53%47%
2 March 2024 By-election 41.1%39.2%6.4%2.5%10.8%52.7%47.3%
15–22 February 2024YouGov [255] 394± 6.1%33%40%9%3%15%49%51%
5–6 February 2024 uComms [b] 626± 3.9%40.1%39.3%8.2%1.6%10.8%52.0%48.0%
21 May 2022 Election 40.2%32.5%10.3%2.5%16.9%56.3%43.7%

Goldstein

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB IND ALP GRN OTHIND LIB
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [36] [37] ——49%—17%6%29%47%53%
21 May 2022 Election 40.4%34.5%11.0%7.8%6.3%52.9%47.1%

Jagajaga

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
L/NP ALP GRN IND OTH L/NP ALP
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [36] [37] ——35%40%16%—9%41%59%
Feb 2024 - May 2024 RedBridge Group ——33%39%18%—10%39%61%
21 May 2022 2022 Federal Election 29.2%40.9%16.7%3.1%10.1%37.6%62.4%

Kooyong

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2cp vote
LIB IND ALP GRN OTHUND IND LIB
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [36] [37] ——43%—12%4%41%—53%47%
5 February 2024 uComms [b] 647±3.9%36.8%32.5%12.1%6.8%2.0%9.7%56.0%44.0%
24–25 July 2023 uComms [b] 821±3.4%40.3%31.6%12.4%5.6%2.9%7.2%51.0%49.0%
21 May 2022 Election 42.7%40.3%6.9%6.3%3.8%—52.9%47.1%

Western Australia

Curtin

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB IND ALP GRN OTHIND LIB
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [36] [37] ——46%—23%8%22%47%53%
21 May 2022 Election 41.3%29.5%14.0%10.4%4.9%51.3%48.7%

Tasmania

Lyons

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN JLN ONP OTH ALP LIB
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [36] [37] ——41%25%9%——24%46%54%
21 May 2022 Election 37.2%29.0%11.4%10.9%5.4%6.1%50.9%49.1%

Northern Territory

Lingiari

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP CLP GRN ONP INDOTH ALP CLP
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [36] [37] ——30%36%12%——22%47%53%
21 May 2022 Election 36.6%34.7%11.0%5.4%3.0%9.4%51.0%49.0%

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Some polling forms do not release two-party-preferred results. Results shown for polls conducted by these firms are manually calculated using preference flows in 2022. [253]
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Sponsored by the Australia Institute

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References

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 "The Essential Report: Political Insights". Essential Research . Retrieved 3 December 2024.
  2. ↑ "Coalition regains two-party preferred lead after Albanese Government does deals with the Greens to pass legislation". Roy Morgan . 2 December 2024.
  3. ↑ "ALP regains two-party preferred lead as Prime Minister Albanese travels to the APEC and G20 Summits". Roy Morgan. 25 November 2024. Retrieved 25 November 2024.
  4. ↑ "Australia Poll Federal Voting Intention" (PDF). DemosAU. 25 November 2024. Retrieved 26 November 2024.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  5. 1 2 "Support for under-16 social media ban soars to 77% among Australians | YouGov". au.yougov.com. Retrieved 26 November 2024.
  6. 1 2 "Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread) – The Poll Bludger". www.pollbludger.net. Retrieved 17 November 2024.
  7. ↑ "Coalition maintains a narrow two-party preferred lead over Labor for the third straight week". Roy Morgan . 18 November 2024.
  8. ↑ "November public opinion snapshot" (PDF). RedBridge Group. 14 November 2024. Retrieved 26 November 2024.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
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  11. ↑ "Coalition retains a narrow lead over Labor as Donald Trump wins US Presidential Election". Roy Morgan . 11 November 2024.
  12. 1 2 "Peter Dutton closes in as preferred prime minister as Anthony Albanese's stocks fall". The Australian . 10 November 2024.
  13. ↑ "Coalition takes lead from Labor as Prime Minister Albanese deals with Qantas flight upgrades scandal". Roy Morgan . 4 November 2024.
  14. ↑ "Coalition support increases nationally as the LNP wins the Queensland election". Roy Morgan . 28 October 2024.
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  17. ↑ "Federal voting intention remains tied in mid-October: Coalition 50% cf. ALP 50%". Roy Morgan . 14 October 2024.
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  19. ↑ "Federal voting intention tied in early October: Coalition 50% cf. ALP 50%". Roy Morgan . 7 October 2024.
  20. 1 2 Crowe, David (7 October 2024). "Albanese in voters' sights over cost of living". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 7 October 2024.
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  22. ↑ "Federal voting intention virtually unchanged this week with ALP (50.5%) marginally ahead of the Coalition (49.5%)". Roy Morgan . 23 September 2024.
  23. 1 2 Benson, Simon (22 September 2024). "Newspoll: Housing dominates the cost-of-living debate as Labor loses ground". The Australian .
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  25. ↑ "Dutton minority government now in play: poll". Australian Financial Review. 15 September 2024. Retrieved 15 September 2024.
  26. ↑ "Federal voting intention virtually unchanged this week with ALP (50.5%) marginally ahead of the Coalition (49.5%); but Greens lost support after violent protests". Roy Morgan . 16 September 2024.
  27. ↑ "Federal voting intention virtually unchanged this week with ALP (51%) marginally ahead of the Coalition (49%)". Roy Morgan . 9 September 2024.
  28. 1 2 Crowe, David (8 September 2024). "Voters blame Labor for inflation woes, not Reserve Bank: poll". The Age. Retrieved 9 September 2024.
  29. ↑ "Federal voting intention: ALP (50.5%) now marginally ahead of the Coalition (49.5%) after Albanese Government's strong stance on putting the CFMEU into administration". Roy Morgan . 2 September 2024.
  30. 1 2 Benson, Simon (1 September 2024). "Newspoll: PM gets a performance review. It's bad". The Australian .
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  32. ↑ "Polls: Resolve Strategic, RedBridge/Accent MRP poll, Wolf & Smith federal and state (open thread) – The Poll Bludger". www.pollbludger.net. Retrieved 9 September 2024.
  33. ↑ "Federal & State Political Poll" (PDF). wolf+smith. August 2024. p. 27.
  34. 1 2 "67% of Australians would vote for Kamala Harris for President". 29 August 2024. Archived from the original on 29 August 2024.
  35. ↑ "Federal Government and Leader ratings, and views on key issues" (PDF). RedBridge Group. Retrieved 28 April 2024.
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