Opinion polling for the 2025 Australian federal election

Last updated

In the lead-up to the 2025 Australian federal election, a number of polling companies conducted opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collected data on parties' primary vote, leaders’ favourability, and contained an estimation of the two-party-preferred lead.

Contents

Graphical summary

Primary vote

Australian federal election polling - 48th parliament - primary.svg

Two-party preferred

Australian federal election polling - 48th parliament - two party preferred.svg

Voting intention

2025

DateBrandInterview
mode		Sample
size		Primary vote 2pp vote [a]
L/NP ALP GRN ONP TOP [b] OTHUND ALP L/NP
3 May 2025 Election [5] 31.8%34.6%12.2%6.4%1.9%13.1%—55.2%44.8%
28 Apr – 2 May 2025Roy Morgan [6] Online1,36834.5%33%13.5%6.5%2%10.5%—53%47%
28 Apr - 1 May 2025Ipsos [7] Online2,57433%28%12%8%2%12%5%51%49%
29 Apr – 1 May 2025Freshwater Strategy [8] Online2,05537%33%12%8%—10%—51.5%48.5%
28 Apr – 1 May 2025Newspoll [9] Online1,27034%33%13%8%—12%—52.5%47.5%
24 Apr – 1 May 2025YouGov [10] [11] Online3,00331.4%31.1%14.6%8.5%2.5%11.9%—52.2%47.8%
27–30 Apr 2025DemosAU [9] Online4,10033%31%12%9%—15%—52%48%
27–29 Apr 2025DemosAU [12] Online1,97432%29%12%9%—18%—51%49%
24–29 Apr 2025Redbridge/Accent [13] Online1,01134%34%12%8%—12%—53%47%
24–28 Apr 2025Spectre Strategy [14] [c] Online2,00034%31%14.5%9.5%—11%—53%47%
23–28 Apr 2025Resolve Strategic [15] Telephone
/Online		2,01035%31%14%7%—13%—53%47%
24–27 Apr 2025Essential [16] Online2,16334%32%13%10%2%9%—52.1%47.9%
21–27 Apr 2025Roy Morgan [17] Online1,52434.5%34%13%7.5%1.5%9.5%—53%47%
27 Apr 2025The fourth leaders' debate takes place
21–25 Apr 2025Newspoll [18] Online1,25435%34%11%8%—12%—52%48%
1–25 Apr 2025YouGov MRP [19] Online10,82231.1%31.4%12.6%9.1%—15.7%—52.9%47.1%
22–23 Apr 2025DemosAU [20] Online1,07331%29%14%9%3%14% [d] —52%48%
17–22 Apr 2025YouGov [21] Online1,50031%33.5%14%10.5%2%9%—53.5%46.5%
22 Apr 2025The third leaders' debate takes place and early voting begins
14–20 Apr 2025Roy Morgan [22] Online1,60534%34.5%14.5%6%0.5%11%—55.5%44.5%
14–17 Apr 2025Newspoll [23] Online1,26335%34%12%7%—12%—52%48%
14–16 Apr 2025Freshwater Strategy [24] Online1,06239%32%12%——17%—50%50%
16 Apr 2025The second leaders' debate takes place
11–15 Apr 2025YouGov [25] Online1,50633%33%13%7%2%12%—53%47%
9–14 Apr 2025Essential [26] Online2,14232%31%13%9%2%9%4%50%45%
9–13 Apr 2025Resolve Strategic [27] Online1,64234%31%13%6%—17%—53.5%46.5%
7–13 Apr 2025Roy Morgan [28] Online1,70833.5%32%14.5%6%1%13%—54.5%45.5%
7–10 Apr 2025Newspoll [29] Online1,27135%33%12%8%—12%—52%48%
4–10 Apr 2025YouGov [30] Online1,50533.5%32.0%13.0%8.5%1.0%12.0%—52.5%47.5%
8 Apr 2025The first leaders' debate takes place
31 Mar – 4 Apr 2025Newspoll [31] Online1,25036%33%12%7%—12%—52%48%
31 Mar – 4 Apr 2025Roy Morgan [32] Online1,48133%32.5%13.5%6%1.5%13.5%—53.5%46.5%
28 Mar – 3 Apr 2025YouGov [33] Online1,62235%30%13%7%2%13%—51%49%
28 Mar – 1 Apr 2025Redbridge/Accent [34] [35] Online1,00636%33%12%——19%—52%48%
28–30 Mar 2025Freshwater Strategy [36] Online1,05939%32%12%——17%—49%51%
26–30 Mar 2025Resolve Strategic [37] Online3,23737%29%13%7%—14%—50%50%
26–30 Mar 2025Essential [26] Online1,10034%30%12%9%2%8%5%48%47%
24–30 Mar 2025Roy Morgan [38] Online1,37735%32%13%5.5%—14.5%—53%47%
27–29 Mar 2025Newspoll [39] Online1,24937%33%12%6%—12%—51%49%
28 Mar 2025The 2025 Australian federal election is called for 3 May
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov MRP [40] Online10,21735.5%29.8%13.2%9.3%—12.2% [e] —50.2%49.8%
13–24 Mar 2025Redbridge/Accent [41] Online2,03938%34%11%——17%—51%49%
17–23 Mar 2025Roy Morgan [42] Online1,68335.5%33.5%12.5%4%—14.5%—53%47%
14–19 Mar 2025YouGov [43] Online1,50037%31%13%7%1%11%—50%50%
12–16 Mar 2025Essential [44] Online2,25635%29%12%8%1% [f] 9%6%47%47%
10–16 Mar 2025Roy Morgan [46] Online2,09734%32.5%13.5%5%—15%—54.5%45.5%
13–15 Mar 2025Freshwater Strategy [47] Online1,05139%31%14%——16%—49%51%
7–13 Mar 2025YouGov [48] Online1,52636%31%13.5%7.5%1%11%—51%49%
3–11 Mar 2025Redbridge/Accent [49] Online2,00737%32%12%——19%—51%49%
3–9 Mar 2025Roy Morgan [50] Online1,71937%30%13.5%5%—14.5%—51.5%48.5%
3–7 Mar 2025Newspoll [51] Online1,25539%32%12%7%—10%—49%51%
28 Feb – 6 Mar 2025YouGov [52] Online1,50436%31%13%7%1%12%—51%49%
26 Feb – 2 Mar 2025Essential [53] Online1,15035%29%13%8%1% [f] 10%5%47%48%
24 Feb – 2 Mar 2025Roy Morgan [54] Online1,67340%28.5%13.5%4%—14%—49.5%50.5%
21–27 Feb 2025YouGov [55] Online1,50137%28%14%8%1%12%—49%51%
20–25 Feb 2025RedBridge/Accent [56] [g] Online1,00241%34%12%——13%—49.5%50.5%
21–23 Feb 2025Freshwater Strategy [57] Online1,03841%31%13%——15%—48%52%
18–23 Feb 2025Resolve Strategic [58] Online1,50639%25%13%9%—13%—45%55%
17–23 Feb 2025Roy Morgan [59] Online1,66636.5%31.5%13.5%5%—13.5%—51%49%
12–16 Feb 2025Essential [53] Online1,14635%30%12%9%1% [f] 9%4%48%48%
10–16 Feb 2025Roy Morgan [3] Online1,66639.5%28%12.5%5.5%—14.5%—48.5%51.5%
10–14 Feb 2025Newspoll [60] Online1,24438%31%12%7%—12%—49%51%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 YouGov MRP [61] Online8,73237.4%29.1%12.7%9.1%—11.7% [h] —48.9%51.1%
4–11 Feb 2025RedBridge/Accent [62] [i] Online1,00243%33%12%——12%—48%52%
3–9 Feb 2025Roy Morgan [63] Online1,68840.5%29%11%4%—15.5%—48.5%51.5%
3–7 Feb 2025RedBridge Group [64] Online1,01340%31%11%——18%—48.5%51.5%
29 Jan – 3 Feb 2025Essential [53] Online1,15036%30%12%8%1% [f] 9%4%47%49%
27 Jan – 2 Feb 2025Roy Morgan [65] Online1,69438.5%30%11.5%5.5%—14.5%—50%50%
28 Jan – 1 Feb 2025DemosAU [66] Online1,23838%33%12%7%—10%5%50%50%
20–26 Jan 2025Roy Morgan [67] Online1,56740.5%29.5%11.5%6%—12.5%—48%52%
20–24 Jan 2025Newspoll [68] Online1,25939%31%12%7%—11%—49%51%
15–21 Jan 2025Resolve Strategic [69] Online1,61638%27%13%7%—16%—48%52%
17–19 Jan 2025Freshwater Strategy [70] Online1,06340%32%13%——15%—49%51%
15–19 Jan 2025Essential [53] Online1,13237%30%12%7%2% [f] 7%5%47%48%
13–19 Jan 2025Roy Morgan [71] Online1,56442%28.5%13%4%—12.5%—48%52%
9–15 Jan 2025YouGov [72] Online1,50439%32%12%7%—10%—49%51%
6–12 Jan 2025Roy Morgan [73] Online1,72140.5%30%12.5%4.5%—12.5%—48.5%51.5%
30 Dec – 5 Jan 2025Roy Morgan [74] Online1,44640.5%31%12%3.5%—13%—47%53%

2024

DateBrandInterview
mode		Sample
size		Primary vote 2pp vote [a]
L/NP ALP GRN ONP UAP OTHUND ALP L/NP
13–15 Dec 2024Freshwater Strategy [75] Online1,05140%30%14%——16%—49%51%
12–15 Dec 2024Essential [53] Online1,15135%30%13%6%1%11%5%47%48%
9–15 Dec 2024Roy Morgan [76] Online1,67241%27.5%12.5%5%—14%—48%52%
4–8 Dec 2024Resolve Strategic [77] Online1,60438%27%12%7%—16%—49%51%
2–8 Dec 2024Roy Morgan [78] Online1,65338%28%13%6.5%—14.5%—48%52%
2–6 Dec 2024Newspoll [79] Online1,25839%33%11%7%—10%—50%50%
27 Nov – 1 Dec 2024Essential [53] Online1,12335%32%11%8%1%9%5%47%48%
25 Nov – 1 Dec 2024Roy Morgan [80] Online1,66638.5%30%12.5%6.5%—12.5%—49%51%
18–24 Nov 2024Roy Morgan [81] Online1,66337%31.5%12.5%6.5%—12.5%—51%49%
19–21 Nov 2024DemosAU [82] Online1,03838%32%12%7%—11%—50%50%
15–21 Nov 2024YouGov [83] Online1,51538%30%13%9%—10%—50%50%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024RedBridge Group [84] Online4,90939%31%11%——19%—49%51%
13–18 Nov 2024Essential [53] Online1,20635%30%13%7%2%8%5%48%47%
15–17 Nov 2024Freshwater Strategy [85] Online1,04640%30%14%——16%—49%51%
11–17 Nov 2024Roy Morgan [86] Online1,67539%29%13.5%6.5%—12%—49%51%
6–13 Nov 2024RedBridge Group [87] Online2,01139%34%11%——16%—50%50%
5–10 Nov 2024Resolve Strategic [88] [89] Online1,62139%30%11%5%—15%—49%51%
4–10 Nov 2024Roy Morgan [90] Online1,66537.5%30.5%12.5%6.5%—13%—49.5%50.5%
4–8 Nov 2024Newspoll [91] Online1,26140%33%11%5%—11%—49%51%
30 Oct – 3 Nov 2024Essential [53] Online1,13134%31%12%9%2%8%5%47%49%
28 Oct – 3 Nov 2024Roy Morgan [92] Online1,65138%30.5%14%6%—11.5%—49%51%
21–27 Oct 2024Roy Morgan [93] Online1,68737.5%30%14%5.5%—13%—50.5%49.5%
14–25 Oct 2024ANU [94] Online3,62238.2%31.8%11.8%———9.5%50%50%
18–20 Oct 2024Freshwater Strategy [95] Online1,03441%30%13%——16%—49%51%
16–20 Oct 2024Essential [53] Online1,14035%28%12%7%2%9%6%46%48%
14–20 Oct 2024Roy Morgan [96] Online1,68736.5%32%13.5%5.5%—12.5%—52%48%
7–13 Oct 2024Roy Morgan [97] Online1,69737.5%30%14%6%—12.5%—50%50%
7–11 Oct 2024Newspoll [98] Online1,25838%31%12%7%—12%—49%51%
2–6 Oct 2024Essential [53] Online1,13934%32%12%8%1%9%5%49%47%
30 Sep – 6 Oct 2024Roy Morgan [99] Online1,69737.5%31.5%12.5%5.5%—13%—50%50%
1–5 Oct 2024Resolve Strategic [100] Online1,60638%30%12%5%—15%—50%50%
23–29 Sep 2024Roy Morgan [101] Online1,66838%30%13.5%4.5%—14%—49%51%
18–22 Sep 2024Essential [53] Online1,11735%29%12%8%2%9%5%47%48%
16–22 Sep 2024Roy Morgan [102] Online1,66237.5%32%12.5%5%—13%—50.5%49.5%
16–20 Sep 2024Newspoll [103] Online1,24938%31%13%6%—12%—50%50%
13–19 Sep 2024YouGov [104] Online1,61939%30%14%7%—10%—50%50%
13–15 Sep 2024Freshwater Strategy [105] Online1,05742%30%13%——15%—48%52%
9–15 Sep 2024Roy Morgan [106] Online1,63437.5%30.5%12.5%5.5%—14%—50.5%49.5%
2–8 Sep 2024Roy Morgan [107] Online1,70336.5%30%14.5%6%—13%—51%49%
3–7 Sep 2024Essential [53] Online1,13235%30%13%8%1%8%5%48%48%
3–7 Sep 2024Resolve Strategic [108] Online1,61437%28%13%6%1%15%—50%50%
26 Aug – 1 Sep 2024Roy Morgan [109] Online1,69736%30.5%13%6%—14.5%—50.5%49.5%
26–30 Aug 2024Newspoll [110] Online1,26338%32%12%7%—11%—50%50%
6–29 Aug 2024Wolf & Smith [111] [112] [113] Online10,23936%29%13%6%—15%—51%49%
23–28 Aug 2024YouGov [114] Online1,54337%32%13%8%—10%—50%50%
20–27 Aug 2024RedBridge Group [115] Online2,01738%33%12%——17%—50.5%49.5%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024RedBridge Group [112] [116] [117] Online5,97638%32%12%——18%—50%50%
19–25 Aug 2024Roy Morgan [118] Online1,70139.5%29.5%13%4%—14%—49.5%50.5%
20–24 Aug 2024Essential [53] Online1,12933%29%13%7%1%11%6%48%46%
16–18 Aug 2024Freshwater Strategy [119] Online1,06141%32%12%——15%—49%51%
12–18 Aug 2024Roy Morgan [120] Online1,69838.5%30.5%13.5%4%—13.5%—50.5%49.5%
8–11 Aug 2024Essential [53] Online1,13234%28%14%7%1%9%6%47%47%
7–11 Aug 2024Resolve Strategic [121] Online1,60737%29%13%6%2%13%—50%50%
5–11 Aug 2024Roy Morgan [122] Online1,67138%29.5%14%5%—13.5%—50%50%
5–9 Aug 2024Newspoll [123] Online1,26639%32%12%6%—11%—50%50%
29 Jul – 4 Aug 2024Roy Morgan [124] Online1,65537%30.5%12%5.5%—15%—51.5%48.5%
24–28 Jul 2024Essential [53] Online1,13734%32%11%7%2%9%6%47%46%
22–28 Jul 2024Roy Morgan [125] Online1,65237.5%30.5%13%6.5%—12.5%—50.5%49.5%
19–21 Jul 2024Freshwater Strategy [126] Online1,06040%31%13%——16%—49%51%
15–21 Jul 2024Roy Morgan [127] Online1,75239.5%31.5%13%5%—11%—49%51%
15–19 Jul 2024Newspoll [128] Online1,25838%33%13%6%—10%—51%49%
10–19 Jul 2024RedBridge Group [129] Online1,50541%32%11%——16%—48.5%51.5%
12–17 Jul 2024YouGov [130] Online1,52838%31%13%7%—11%—51%49%
10–14 Jul 2024Essential [53] Online1,12233%29%13%8%3%9%6%46%48%
8–14 Jul 2024Roy Morgan [131] Online1,75837.5%31%12.5%5%—14%—49.5%50.5%
10–13 Jul 2024Resolve Strategic [132] Online1,60338%28%13%6%1%13%—50%50%
1–7 Jul 2024Roy Morgan [133] Online1,72339.5%28.5%13.5%5%—13.5%—48%52%
26–30 Jun 2024Essential [53] Online1,14133%30%12%7%1%10%7%46%47%
24–30 Jun 2024Roy Morgan [134] Online1,70836.5%31.5%13%4.5%—14.5%—51%49%
24–28 Jun 2024Newspoll [135] Online1,26036%32%13%7%—12%—51%49%
17–23 Jun 2024Roy Morgan [136] Online1,69637%31.5%13%6%—12.5%—51%49%
14–16 Jun 2024Freshwater Strategy [137] Online1,06040%32%13%——15%—50%50%
12–16 Jun 2024Essential [53] Online1,18132%31%13%8%1%9%6%48%46%
10–16 Jun 2024Roy Morgan [138] Online1,72438%29.5%13.5%5%—14%—50%50%
11–15 Jun 2024Resolve Strategic [139] Online1,60736%28%14%6%1%15%—51%49%
3–9 Jun 2024Roy Morgan [140] Online1,68735%30.5%15.5%5.5%—13.5%—53.5%46.5%
3–7 Jun 2024Newspoll [141] Online1,23239%33%11%7%—10%—50%50%
31 May – 4 Jun 2024YouGov [142] Online1,50038%30%14%8%—10%—50%50%
29 May – 2 Jun 2024Essential [53] Online1,16036%32%13%5%3%8%4%48%48%
27 May – 2 Jun 2024Roy Morgan [143] Online1,57936%31%14%4.5%—14.5%—52%48%
20–26 May 2024Roy Morgan [144] Online1,48837%28.5%15%6%—13.5%—48.5%51.5%
17–19 May 2024Freshwater Strategy [145] Online1,05640%32%14%——14%—50%50%
16–19 May 2024Essential [53] Online1,14934%31%10%8%1%8%6%46%47%
15–19 May 2024Resolve Strategic [146] Online1,60236%29%12%7%2%14%—50%50%
13–19 May 2024Roy Morgan [147] Online1,67437%30.5%14.5%5.5%—12.5%—50.5%49.5%
16–18 May 2024Newspoll [148] Online1,28037%34%13%7%—9%—52%48%
10–14 May 2024YouGov [149] Online1,50638%30%13%8%—11%—50%50%
6–12 May 2024Roy Morgan [150] Online1,65437%32%13.5%5.5%—12%—52%48%
1–5 May 2024Essential [53] Online1,15034%31%13%7%1%7%7%46%47%
29 Apr – 5 May 2024Roy Morgan [151] Online1,66637%30%13%6%—14%—52%48%
22–28 Apr 2024Roy Morgan [152] Online1,71936.5%31.5%14%5.5%—12.5%—52%48%
19–23 Apr 2024YouGov [153] Online1,51436%33%13%8%—10%—52%48%
17–21 Apr 2024Essential [53] Online1,14535%31%11%9%1%9%4%47%49%
17–21 Apr 2024Resolve Strategic [154] Online1,61036%30%13%5%2%14%—50%50%
15–21 Apr 2024Roy Morgan [155] Online1,61735.5%30.5%16%5.5%—12.5%—52%48%
12–21 Apr 2024RedBridge Group [156] Online1,52937%33%12%7%—11%—52%48%
15–18 Apr 2024Newspoll [157] Online1,23638%33%12%7%—10%—51%49%
12–14 Apr 2024Freshwater Strategy [158] Online1,05540%31%13%——16%—50%50%
8–14 Apr 2024Roy Morgan [159] Online1,70638.5%30%13.5%5.5%—12.5%—49%51%
13 Apr 2024The Liberals are re-elected in the 2024 Cook by-election
3–7 Apr 2024Essential [53] Online1,16534%29%14%6%2%8%6%48%46%
1–7 Apr 2024Roy Morgan [160] Online1,73138%29.5%13.5%6%—13%—49.5%50.5%
25–31 Mar 2024Roy Morgan [161] Online1,67737.5%30%15.5%3.5%—13.5%—51%49%
22–27 Mar 2024YouGov [162] Online1,51338%32%13%7%—10%—51%49%
21–24 Mar 2024Resolve Strategic [163] Online1,61035%32%13%5%2%13%—53%47%
20–24 Mar 2024Essential [53] Online1,15036%29%11%7%3%7%6%44%50%
18–24 Mar 2024Roy Morgan [164] Online1,63338%31.5%14%4.5%—12%—50%50%
18–22 Mar 2024Newspoll [165] Online1,22337%32%13%7%—11%—51%49%
11–17 Mar 2024Roy Morgan [166] Online1,71037%31.5%12.5%5.5%—13.5%—51.5%48.5%
8–10 Mar 2024Freshwater Strategy [167] Online1,05139%31%14%——16%—51%49%
4–10 Mar 2024Roy Morgan [168] Online1,71438%32%13%4%—13%—51.5%48.5%
5–9 Mar 2024Essential [53] Online1,12635%32%11%8%2%8%5%48%47%
24 Feb  –5 Mar 2024YouGov [169] Online1,53937%32%15%6%—10%—52%48%
26 Feb  –3 Mar 2024Roy Morgan [170] Online1,67936.5%34%13.5%3.5%—12.5%—53.5%46.5%
2 Mar 2024Labor is re-elected in the 2024 Dunkley by-election
21–25 Feb 2024Essential [53] Online1,14535%30%13%7%2%8%4%47%48%
19–25 Feb 2024Roy Morgan [171] Online1,68238%31.5%12%5%—13.5%—50%50%
21–24 Feb 2024Resolve Strategic [172] Online1,60337%34%11%6%1%13%—52%48%
19–23 Feb 2024Newspoll [173] Online1,24536%33%12%6%—13%—52%48%
16–18 Feb 2024Freshwater Strategy [174] Online1,04938%31%14%——17%—51%49%
12–18 Feb 2024Roy Morgan [175] Online1,70637%34%13%4%—12%—52.5%47.5%
7–11 Feb 2024Essential [53] Online1,14834%31%14%7%1%9%5%50%46%
5–11 Feb 2024Roy Morgan [176] Online1,69937%34.5%12%4.5%—12%—52%48%
2–7 Feb 2024YouGov [177] Online1,50236%32%14%8%—10%—52%48%
30 Jan – 7 Feb 2024RedBridge Group [178] Online2,04038%33%13%——16%—51.2%48.8%
29 Jan – 4 Feb 2024Roy Morgan [179] Online1,70937%33%12%5%—13%—53%47%
31 Jan – 3 Feb 2024Newspoll [180] Online1,24536%34%12%7%—11%—52%48%
24–28 Jan 2024Essential [53] Online1,20134%32%13%7%2%7%5%48%46%
22–28 Jan 2024Roy Morgan [181] Online1,68837.5%31%13%5.5%—13%—50.5%49.5%
15–21 Jan 2024Roy Morgan [182] Online1,67536%32.5%12.5%5%—14%—52.5%47.5%
12–17 Jan 2024YouGov [183] Online1,53237%32%13%7%—11%—52%48%
8–14 Jan 2024Roy Morgan [184] Online1,72737%31.5%12%4.5%—15%—51.5%48.5%
10–11 Jan 2024Freshwater Strategy [185] [186] [187] Online1,00739%31%13%——16%—50%50%
2–7 Jan 2024Roy Morgan [188] Online1,71639%29%13%5%—14%—49%51%

2023

DateBrandInterview
mode		Sample
size		Primary vote 2pp vote [a]
L/NP ALP GRN ONP UAP OTHUND ALP L/NP
15–17 Dec 2023Freshwater Strategy [189] Online1,10939%31%13%——16%—50%50%
11–17 Dec 2023Roy Morgan [190] Online1,10938%32%11.5%4.5%—14%—50%50%
11–15 Dec 2023Newspoll [191] Online1,21936%33%13%7%—11%—52%48%
6–11 Dec 2023Essential [53] Online1,10234%31%13%6%2%9%5%49%46%
6–11 Dec 2023RedBridge Group [192] Online2,01035%33%13%——19%—52.8%47.2%
1–5 Dec 2023YouGov [193] [194] Online1,55536%29%15%7%—13%—51%49%
29 Nov – 3 Dec 2023Resolve Strategic [195] [196] Online1,60534%35%12%5%1%12%—55%45%
27 Nov – 3 Dec 2023Roy Morgan [197] —1,73037.5%32.5%12.5%5%—12.5%—51%49%
22–26 Nov 2023Essential [53] Online1,15134%31%13%7%1%8%6%48%47%
20–26 Nov 2023Roy Morgan [198] —1,37935%32%13.5%5%—14.5%—52.5%47.5%
20–24 Nov 2023Newspoll [199] Online1,21638%31%13%6%—12%—50%50%
13–19 Nov 2023Roy Morgan [200] —1,40137.5%29.5%13.5%6.5%—13%—49.5%50.5%
10–14 Nov 2023YouGov [201] Online1,58236%31%13%7%—13%—51%49%
8–12 Nov 2023Essential [53] Online1,15034%32%12%7%2%8%5%49%47%
6–12 Nov 2023Roy Morgan [202] —1,39736.5%30%13%6%—14.5%—50%50%
1–5 Nov 2023Resolve Strategic [203] Online1,60230%35%13%7%2%13%—57%43%
30 Oct – 3 Nov 2023Newspoll [204] Online1,22037%35%12%6%—10%—52%48%
27 Oct – 2 Nov 2023RedBridge Group [205] Online1,20535%34%14%——17%—53.5%46.5%
25–29 Oct 2023Essential [53] Online1,14934%32%10%7%3%9%6%48%46%
23–29 Oct 2023Roy Morgan [206] —1,37535%32.5%15%——17.5%—53%47%
16–22 Oct 2023Roy Morgan [207] —1,38336%32%14%4.5%—13.5%—49.5%50.5%
14 Oct 2023The 2023 Australian Indigenous Voice referendum is defeated
4–12 Oct 2023Newspoll [208] Online2,63835%36%12%6%—11%—54%46%
6–10 Oct 2023YouGov [209] Online1,51936%33%14%6%—11%—53%47%
3–6 Oct 2023Newspoll [210] [211] Online1,22536%34%12%5%—13%—53%47%
22 Sep – 4 Oct 2023Resolve Strategic [212] [213] Online4,72831%37%12%7%2%11%—57%43%
27 Sept – 1 Oct 2023Essential [53] Online1,12532%33%14%6%2%7%5%50%45%
25–29 Sep 2023YouGov [214] [215] Online1,56335%33%13%——19%—53%47%
22–24 Sep 2023Freshwater Strategy [216] Online1,00337%33%13%——17%—51%49%
18–22 Sep 2023Newspoll [217] [218] Online1,23936%36%11%6%—11%—54%46%
13–17 Sep 2023Essential [53] Online1,13532%31%13%8%2%8%6%49%45%
4–10 Sep 2023Roy Morgan [219] —1,38237%32%13.5%——17.5%—52.5%47.5%
6–9 Sep 2023Resolve Strategic [220] [221] Online1,60434%36%12%5%2%11%—55.5%44.5%
30 Aug – 4 Sep 2023RedBridge Group [222] Online1,00136%37%13%——14%—54.1%45.9%
30 Aug – 3 Sep 2023Essential [53] Online1,15132%31%15%7%2%7%6%51%43%
28 Aug – 3 Sep 2023Roy Morgan [223] —1,40437.5%33.5%13%——16%—53%47%
28 Aug– 1 Sep 2023Newspoll [224] Online1,20037%35%13%7%—8%—53%47%
16–20 Aug 2023Essential [53] [225] Online1,15133%33%14%5%3%7%6%51%43%
10–14 Aug 2023RedBridge Group [226] Online1,01032%38%10%——21%—55.6%44.4%
9–13 Aug 2023Resolve Strategic [227] [228] Online1,60333%37%11%5%2%12%—56%44%
2–6 Aug 2023Essential [53] [229] Online1,15030%33%12%8%2%8%6%52%42%
19–23 Jul 2023Essential [53] [230] Online1,15032%31%14%7%1%9%6%50%45%
15 Jul 2023LNP is re-elected in the 2023 Fadden by-election
12–15 Jul 2023Resolve Strategic [231] [232] Online1,61030%39%11%6%1%11%—59%41%
12–15 Jul 2023Newspoll [233] [234] Online1,57034%36%12%7%—11%—55%45%
5–9 Jul 2023Essential [53] [235] Online2,24832%32%14%8%1%8%5%51%44%
21–25 Jun 2023Essential [53] Online1,14830%32%14%7%2%11%6%52%42%
16–24 Jun 2023Newspoll [236] [237] Online2,30335%38%11%6%—10%—54%46%
7–11 Jun 2023Essential [53] Online1,12332%32%16%5%1%9%5%52%42%
6–11 Jun 2023Resolve Strategic [238] [239] Online1,60630%40%12%6%2%10%—60%40%
31 May – 3 Jun 2023Newspoll [240] [241] Online1,54934%38%12%6%—10%—55%45%
24–28 May 2023Essential [53] Online1,13831%34%15%6%2%7%5%52%43%
15–17 May 2023Freshwater Strategy [242] [243] Online1,00537%34%12%——17%—52%48%
10–14 May 2023Essential [53] [244] Online1,08031%35%14%5%1%8%5%53%42%
11–13 May 2023Newspoll [245] [246] Online1,51634%38%11%7%—10%—55%45%
10–13 May 2023Resolve Strategic [247] [248] Online1,61030%42%12%5%2%8%2%61%39%
26–30 Apr 2023Essential [53] [249] Online1,13032%33%14%5%2%8%5%53%41%
19–22 Apr 2023Newspoll [250] [251] Online1,51433%38%11%7%—11%—56%44%
12–16 Apr 2023Essential [53] [252] Online1,13631%34%14%6%3%9%4%52%43%
12–16 Apr 2023Resolve Strategic [253] [254] Online1,60928%42%12%6%1%11%—61.5%38.5%
29 Mar – 2 Apr 2023Essential [53] [255] Online1,13330%33%14%6%2%10%5%53%42%
29 Mar – 1 Apr 2023Newspoll [256] Online1,50033%38%10%8%—11%—55%45%
1 Apr 2023Labor wins the 2023 Aston by-election
15–20 Mar 2023Essential [53] [257] Online1,12431%34%14%5%2%9%5%52%43%
12–16 Mar 2023Resolve Strategic [258] [257] Online1,60030%39%13%5%1%11%—60%40%
1–5 Mar 2023Essential [53] Online1,14132%32%12%7%2%10%7%49%44%
27 Feb – 5 Mar 2023Roy Morgan——33.5%38%11.5%——17%—54.5%45.5%
1–4 Mar 2023Newspoll [259] Online1,53035%37%10%7%—11%—54%46%
20–26 Feb 2023Roy Morgan——34.5%37%13.5%——15%—56.5%43.5%
15–19 Feb 2023Essential [53] Online1,04430%33%14%6%3%8%8%51%42%
15–19 Feb 2023Resolve Strategic [260] [261] Online1,60431%40%10%5%1%11%—58%42%
13–19 Feb 2023Roy MorganOnline/
Telephone		—33%37%13%——17%—58.5%41.5%
1–6 Feb 2023Essential [53] Online1,00030%33%17%6%1%15%5%55%40%
1–4 Feb 2023Newspoll [262] [263] Online1,51234%38%11%6%1%10%—55%45%
23–29 Jan 2023Roy Morgan——33.5%37.5%11.5%——17.5%—57%43%
18–22 Jan 2023Essential [53] [264] Online1,05031%34%14%8%1%7%5%53%42%
17–22 Jan 2023Resolve Strategic [265] [264] Online1,60629%42%11%6%2%11%—60%40%

2022

DateBrandInterview
mode		Sample
size		Primary vote 2pp vote [a]
L/NP ALP GRN ONP UAP OTHUND ALP L/NP
23 Dec 2022 Andrew Gee leaves the Nationals to become an Independent
16–18 Dec 2022Freshwater Strategy [266] [267] [268] Online1,20937%37%12%4%1%9%—54%46%
7–11 Dec 2022Essential [53] Online1,04230%35%13%6%3%8%5%51%44%
30 Nov – 4 Dec 2022Resolve Strategic [269] [270] Online1,61130%42%11%4%2%8%—60%40%
30 Nov – 3 Dec 2022Newspoll [271] Online1,50835%39%11%6%1%9%—55%45%
23–27 Nov 2022 Essential [271] [272] Online1,04231%33%13%——17%6%51%43%
27–30 Oct 2022Newspoll-YouGov [273] Online1,50035%38%11%6%1%9%—55%45%
26–30 Oct 2022Resolve Strategic [274] [273] Online1,61132%39%13%4%1%11%—58%42%
5–9 Oct 2022Resolve Strategic [275] [276] Online1,60430%39%12%5%3%11%—58.5%41.5%
14–18 Sep 2022Resolve Strategic [277] [278] Online1,60732%39%10%6%2%11%—56.5%43.5%
31 Aug – 3 Sep 2022Newspoll-YouGov [279] [280] Online1,50531%37%13.5%7%2%10%—57%43%
17–21 Aug 2022Resolve Strategic [281] [282] Online2,01128%42%12%5%2%11%—61%39%
27–30 Jul 2022 Newspoll-YouGov [283] [284] Online1,50833%37%12%6%2%10%—56%44%
14–17 Jun 2022Dynata [285] Online1,00131%34%12%4%4%7%9%52.2%47.8%
13–19 Jun 2022 Roy Morgan [286] Online/
telephone		1,40137%36%11%4%0.5%11.5%—53%47%
29 May 2022 Peter Dutton elected unopposed as Leader of the Liberal Party [287]
21 May 2022 Election [288] [289] 35.7%32.6%12.2%5.0%4.1%10.4%—52.1%47.9%

Preferred prime minister and leadership polling

Graphical summary

The following graphical summaries illustrate results from opinion polling for preferred Prime Minister and their respective approval ratings based on data below that is documented in the tables.

Preferred prime minister

Australian Federal Election Polling - 48th Parliament - PPM.svg

Leadership approval ratings

Albanese

Australian Federal Election Polling - 48th Parliament - Albanese Approval.svg

Dutton

Australian Federal Election - 48th Parliament - Dutton Approval.svg

Preferred prime minister and leadership polling table

2025
DateFirmInterview modeSamplePreferred prime minister Albanese Dutton
AlbaneseDuttonDon't KnowNetSatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't KnowNetSatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't KnowNet
2 May 2025Ipsos [7] Online2,57448%34%18%14%36%42%22%−6%27%51%22%−24%
29 Apr – 1 May 2025Freshwater Strategy [8] Online2,05549%39%12%10%41%44%15%−3%35%51%14%−16%
28 Apr – 1 May 2025Newspoll [9] Online1,27051%35%14%16%42%52%6%−10%32%60%8%−28%
24 Apr – 1 May 2025YouGov [10] Online3,00351%34%15%17%43%49%8%−6%33%57%10%−24%
27–30 Apr 2025DemosAU [9] Online4,10046%34%20%12%————————
24–28 Apr 2025Spectre Strategy/Dynata [14] Online2,00047%35%27%12%————————
23–28 Apr 2025Resolve Strategic [290] Telephone/Online2,01047%31%22%16%45%44%11%+1%33%57%10%−24%
24–27 Apr 2025Essential [291] Online2,163————44%47%9%−3%39%51%10%−12%
21–24 Apr 2025Newspoll [292] Online1,25451%35%14%16%43%52%5%−9%35%59%6%−24%
22–23 Apr 2025DemosAU [20] Online1,07343%34%23%9%————————
17–22 Apr 2025YouGov [293] Online1,50050%35%15%15%42%49%9%−7%36%54%10%−18%
14–17 Apr 2025Newspoll [23] Online1,26352%36%12%16%43%52%5%−9%35%57%8%−22%
14–16 Apr 2025Freshwater Strategy [24] Online1,06245%41%14%4%37%48%15%−11%37%47%16%−10%
11–15 Apr 2025YouGov [25] Online1,50648%38%14%10%43%49%8%−6%40%50%10%−10%
9–14 Apr 2025Essential [26] Online2,142————44%47%9%−3%40%48%12%−8%
9–13 Apr 2025Resolve Strategic [294] Online1,64246%30%24%16%45%43%12%+2%34%53%13%−19%
7–10 Apr 2025Newspoll [29] Online1,27149%38%13%11%45%49%6%−4%37%56%7%−19%
4–10 Apr 2025YouGov [30] Online1,51548%37%15%11%45%47%8%−2%38%53%9%−15%
31 Mar – 4 Apr 2025Newspoll [31] Online1,25048%40%12%8%42%53%5%−11%38%55%7%−17%
28 Mar – 3 Apr 2025YouGov [33] Online1,62245%38%17%7%44%50%6%−6%38%53%9%−15%
28–30 Mar 2025Freshwater Strategy [36] Online1,05946%45%9%1%37%49%14%−12%37%47%16%−10%
26–30 Mar 2025Resolve Strategic [37] Online3,23742%33%25%9%39%49%12%−10%37%47%16%−10%
26–30 Mar 2025Essential [26] Online1,100————41%47%12%−6%44%46%10%−2%
27–29 Mar 2025DemosAU [295] Online1,01339%38%23%1%————————
27–29 Mar 2025Newspoll [39] Online1,24949%38%13%11%43%52%5%−9%37%55%8%−18%
17–21 Mar 2025DemosAU [296] Online1,00640%37%23%3%————————
14–19 Mar 2025YouGov [43] Online1,50045%40%15%5%41%50%9%−9%42%47%11%−5%
12–16 Mar 2025Essential [44] Online2,256————46%45%10%+1%41%46%13%−5%
13–15 Mar 2025Freshwater Strategy [47] Online1,05146%42%12%4%37%47%16%−10%35%46%19%−11%
13 Mar 2025JWS Research [297] Online1,60037%44%19%7%————————
7–13 Mar 2025YouGov [48] Online1,52645%39%16%6%43%49%8%−6%42%48%10%−6%
5–7 Mar 2025Freshwater Strategy [298] Online83039%39%22%0%————————
3–7 Mar 2025Newspoll [51] Online1,25547%38%15%9%41%53%6%−12%39%53%8%−14%
28 Feb – 6 Mar 2025 YouGov Online1,50445%39%16%6%42%51%7%−9%43%47%10%−4%
26 Feb – 2 Mar 2025Essential [299] Online1,150————41%49%10%−8%41%44%15%−3%
21–27 Feb 2025YouGov [300] Online1,50142%40%18%2%40%52%8%−12%44%46%10%−2%
20–25 Feb 2025RedBridge/Accent [301] Online1,002————30%43%27%−13%39%43%18%−4%
21–23 Feb 2025Freshwater Strategy [57] Online1,03845%43%12%2%35%46%19%−11%36%44%20%−8%
18–23 Feb 2025Resolve Strategic [58] Online1,50635%39%26%4%34%56%10%−22%45%40%15%+5%
12–16 Feb 2025Essential [302] Online1,146————42%48%10%−6%41%45%14%−4%
10–14 Feb 2025Newspoll [60] Online1,24445%40%15%5%37%58%5%−21%41%51%8%−10%
4–11 Feb 2025RedBridge/Accent [62] Online1,002————29%45%26%−16%31%42%27%−11%
20–24 Jan 2025Newspoll [68] Online1,25944%41%15%3%37%57%6%−20%40%51%9%−11%
15–21 Jan 2025Resolve Strategic [69] Online1,61634%39%27%5%33%55%12%−22%44%38%18%+6%
17–19 Jan 2025Freshwater Strategy [70] Online1,06343%43%14%0%32%50%18%−18%36%40%24%−4%
15–19 Jan 2025Essential [303] Online1,132————45%45%10%0%42%43%15%−1%
9–15 Jan 2025YouGov [72] Online1,50444%40%16%4%40%55%5%−15%43%49%8%−6%
2024
DateFirmInterview modeSamplePreferred prime minister Albanese Dutton
AlbaneseDuttonDon't KnowNetSatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't KnowNetSatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't KnowNet
13–15 Dec 2024Freshwater Strategy [75] Online1,05146%43%11%3%34%51%15%−17%37%40%23%−3%
11–15 Dec 2024Essential [304] Online1,151————39%50%11%−11%44%41%15%+3%
4–8 Dec 2024Resolve Strategic [77] Online1,60435%35%30%0%31%57%12%−26%40%42%18%−2%
2–6 Dec 2024Newspoll [79] Online1,25845%38%17%7%40%54%6%−14%39%51%10%−12%
15–21 Nov 2024YouGov [83] Online1,51542%39%19%3%36%56%8%−20%40%48%12%−8%
13–18 Nov 2024Essential [305] Online1,206————43%48%10%−5%42%41%16%+1%
15–17 Nov 2024Freshwater Strategy [85] Online1,04643%42%15%1%33%50%17%−17%37%41%22%−4%
5–10 Nov 2024Resolve Strategic [88] [89] Online1,62137%37%26%0%37%51%12%−14%45%40%15%+5%
4–8 Nov 2024Newspoll [91] Online1,26145%41%14%4%40%55%5%−15%40%51%9%−11%
18–20 Oct 2024Freshwater Strategy [95] Online1,03444%43%13%1%35%49%16%−14%37%39%24%−2%
16–20 Oct 2024Essential [306] Online1,140————44%48%8%−4%45%39%16%+6%
4–16 Oct 2024RedBridge Group [307] Online2,315————34%53%13%−19%39%42%19%−3%
7–11 Oct 2024Newspoll [98] Online1,25845%37%18%8%40%54%6%−14%38%52%10%−14%
1–5 Oct 2024Resolve Strategic [100] Online1,60638%35%27%3%35%52%13%−17%41%41%18%0%
18–22 Sep 2024Essential [308] Online1,117————42%47%11%−5%42%42%16%0%
16–20 Sep 2024Newspoll [103] Online1,24946%37%17%9%43%51%6%−8%37%52%11%−15%
13–19 Sep 2024YouGov [104] Online1,61942%39%19%3%36%58%6%−22%40%50%10%−10%
13–15 Sep 2024Freshwater Strategy [105] Online1,05745%41%14% [j] 4%34%49%17%−15%34%38%28%−4%
3–7 Sep 2024Resolve Strategic [108] Online1,61435%34%31%1%35%53%12%−18%41%42%17%−1%
26–30 Aug 2024Newspoll [110] Online1,26345%37%18%8%41%54%5%−13%39%52%9%−13%
23–28 Aug 2024YouGov [114] Online1,54343%38%19%5%41%52%7%−11%42%47%11%−5%
20–24 Aug 2024Essential [309] Online1,129————40%50%10%−10%42%41%16%+1%
16–18 Aug 2024Freshwater Strategy [119] Online1,06145%41%14% [k] 4%35%45%20%−10%37%40%23%−3%
7–11 Aug 2024Resolve Strategic [121] Online1,60735%36%29%1%34%51%15%−17%41%38%21%+3%
5–9 Aug 2024Newspoll [123] Online1,26646%39%15%7%43%51%6%−8%40%50%10%−10%
24–28 Jul 2024Essential [310] Online1,137————43%46%11%−3%42%41%17%+1%
19–21 Jul 2024Freshwater Strategy [311] Online1,06045%39%16% [l] 6%34%48%18%−14%36%39%25%−3%
15–19 Jul 2024Newspoll [311] Online1,25846%39%15%6%44%51%5%−7%41%49%10%−8%
12–17 Jul 2024YouGov [130] Online1,52845%37%18%8%42%52%6%−10%42%46%12%−4%
10–13 Jul 2024Resolve Strategic [132] Online1,60334%35%31%1%32%54%14%−22%39%40%21%−1%
26–30 Jun 2024Essential [312] Online1,141————40%49%11%−9%41%42%17%−1%
24–28 Jun 2024Newspoll [135] Online1,26046%38%16%8%42%53%5%−11%38%54%8%−16%
14–16 Jun 2024Freshwater Strategy [137] Online1,06043%41%16% [m] 2%34%46%20%−12%35%40%25%−5%
11–15 Jun 2024Resolve Strategic [139] Online1,60735%36%29%1%36%50%14%−14%42%40%19%+2%
3–7 Jun 2024Newspoll [141] Online1,23246%38%16%8%43%50%7%−7%39%49%12%−10%
31 May – 4 Jun 2024YouGov [142] Online1,50047%36%17%9%41%53%6%–12%38%51%11%−13%
29 May – 2 Jun 2024Essential [313] Online1,160————43%47%11%−4%41%42%17%−1%
17–19 May 2024Freshwater Strategy [145] Online1,05646%37%16% [n] 9%37%46%18%−9%31%40%29%−9%
15–19 May 2024Resolve Strategic [146] Online1,60240%32%28%8%39%49%12%−10%39%42%19%−3%
16–18 May 2024Newspoll [148] Online1,28052%33%15%19%47%47%6%0%38%50%12%−12%
10–14 May 2024YouGov [149] Online1,50644%37%19%7%41%53%6%−12%42%48%10%−6%
17–21 Apr 2024Essential [314] Online1,145————43%48%9%−5%44%41%15%+3%
17–21 Apr 2024YouGov [o] [315] Online1,09237%45%18%8%————————
17–21 Apr 2024Resolve Strategic [154] Online1,61041%32%27%9%43%45%12%−2%40%42%17%−2%
15–18 Apr 2024Newspoll [157] Online1,23648%35%17%13%44%50%6%−6%36%51%13%−15%
12–14 Apr 2024Freshwater Strategy [158] Online1,05545%39%16% [p] 6%38%45%17%−7%32%41%27%−9%
22–27 Mar 2024YouGov [162] Online1,51346%34%20%12%41%52%7%−11%38%49%13%−11%
21–24 Mar 2024Resolve Strategic [163] Online1,61040%30%30%10%38%49%13%−11%36%44%20%−8%
18–22 Mar 2024Newspoll [165] Online1,22348%34%18%14%44%51%5%−7%37%52%11%−15%
8–10 Mar 2024Freshwater Strategy [167] Online1,05147%38%15% [q] 9%37%45%18%−8%30%43%27%−13%
24 Feb – 5 Mar 2024YouGov [169] Online1,53948%34%18%14%44%50%6%−6%39%49%12%−10%
21–25 Feb 2024Essential [316] Online1,145————42%47%10%−5%40%44%16%−4%
21–24 Feb 2024Resolve Strategic [172] Online1,60339%32%29%7%41%47%12%−6%35%45%20%−10%
19–23 Feb 2024Newspoll [173] Online1,24547%35%18%12%43%51%6%−8%37%51%12%−14%
16–18 Feb 2024Freshwater Strategy [317] Online1,04942%38%19% [r] 4%38%45%18%−7%32%41%28%−9%
2–7 Feb 2024YouGov [177] Online1,50245%38%17%7%———−16%———−8%
31 Jan – 3 Feb 2024Newspoll [180] [318] Online1,24546%35%19%11%42%51%7%−9%37%50%13%−13%
24–28 Jan 2024Essential [319] Online1,201————41%47%12%−6%38%43%19%−5%
12–17 Jan 2024YouGov [183] Online1,53245%35%20%10%———−13%———−11%
10–11 Jan 2024Freshwater Strategy [185] [186] [187] Online1,00747%38%15% [s] 9%38%43%19%−5%31%40%30%−9%
2023
DateFirmInterview modeSamplePreferred prime minister Albanese Dutton
AlbaneseDuttonDon't KnowSatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't KnowNetSatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't KnowNet
15–17 Dec 2023Freshwater Strategy [189] Online1,10943%39%18% [t] 37%42%20%−5%34%36%30%−2%
11–15 Dec 2023Newspoll [191] Online1,21946%35%19%42%50%8%−8%39%48%13%−9%
1–5 Dec 2023YouGov [193] [194] Online1,55546%36%18%39%55%6%−16%39%48%13%−9%
29 Nov – 3 Dec 2023Resolve Strategic [195] Online1,60542%28%30%37%48%15%−11%34%42%24%−8%
22–26 Nov 2023Essential [320] Online1,151———42%47%12%−5%39%42%19%−3%
20–24 Nov 2023Newspoll [199] Online1,21646%35%19%40%53%7%−13%37%50%13%−13%
10–14 Nov 2023YouGov [201] [321] Online1,58248%34%18%43%50%7%−7%40%47%13%−7%
1–5 Nov 2023Resolve Strategic [203] Online1,60240%27%33%39%46%15%−7%36%40%25%−4%
30 Oct – 3 Nov 2023Newspoll [204] Online1,22046%36%18%42%52%6%−10%37%50%13%−13%
11–14 Oct 2023Essential [322] Online1,125———46%43%11%+3%36%43%21%−7%
4–12 Oct 2023Newspoll [208] Online2,63851%31%18%46%46%8%0%35%53%12%−18%
6–10 Oct 2023YouGov [209] [321] Online1,51950%34%16%45%48%7%−3%38%50%12%−12%
3–6 Oct 2023Newspoll [210] [211] Online1,22550%33%17%45%46%9%−1%37%50%13%−13%
22 Sep – 4 Oct 2023Resolve Strategic [212] [213] Online1,60447%25%28%43%43%14%0%30%45%25%−15%
25–29 Sep 2023YouGov [214] [321] Online1,56350%33%17%————————
22–24 Sep 2023Freshwater Strategy [216] Online1,00346%37%17% [u] 38%41%21%−3%30%40%30%−10%
18–22 Sep 2023Newspoll [217] [218] Online1,23950%30%20%47%44%9%+3%32%52%16%−20%
6–9 Sep 2023Resolve Strategic [220] [221] Online1,60443%28%29%40%47%13%−7%35%43%22%−8%
30 Aug – 3 Sep 2023Essential [323] Online1,151———46%43%10%+3%38%43%19%−5%
28 Aug – 1 Sep 2023Newspoll [224] Online1,20050%31%19%46%47%7%−1%38%49%13%−11%
9–13 Aug 2023Resolve Strategic [227] [228] Online1,60346%25%29%44%42%14%+2%31%44%24%−13%
19–23 Jul 2023Essential [230] [324] Online1,150———48%41%11%+7%37%43%20%−6%
12–15 Jul 2023Resolve Strategic [231] [232] Online1,61051%21%28%51%34%15%+17%31%47%23%−16%
12–15 Jul 2023Newspoll [233] Online1,57054%29%17%52%41%7%+11%36%49%15%−13%
16–24 Jun 2023Newspoll [236] Online2,30352%32%16%52%42%6%+10%38%49%13%−11%
29 May – 12 Jun 2023CT Group [325] Online3,000———42%36%22%+6%————
6–11 Jun 2023Resolve Strategic [238] [239] Online1,60653%22%25%53%35%13%+18%28%48%24%−20%
31 May – 3 Jun 2023Newspoll [240] Online1,54955%28%17%55%37%8%+18%36%50%14%−14%
15–17 May 2023Freshwater Strategy [242] [243] Online1,00551%33%16% [v] 42%37%21%+5%30%42%28%−12%
10–14 May 2023Essential [326] Online1,125———54%35%11%+19%36%45%19%−9%
11–13 May 2023Newspoll [245] [246] Online1,51656%29%15%57%38%5%+19%36%51%13%−15%
10–13 May 2023Resolve Strategic [247] [248] Online1,61053%20%27%56%29%14%+27%28%49%23%−21%
19–22 Apr 2023Newspoll [250] [251] Online1,51454%28%18%53%37%10%+16%33%52%15%−19%
12–16 Apr 2023Essential [327] Online1,136———51%36%12%+15%36%44%20%−8%
12–16 Apr 2023Resolve Strategic [253] [254] Online1,60955%21%24%56%29%14%+27%26%54%19%−28%
29 Mar – 2 Apr 2023Essential [328] Online1,133———52%35%13%+17%————
29 Mar – 1 Apr 2023NewspollOnline1,50058%26%16%56%35%9%+21%35%48%21%−13%
12–16 Mar 2023Resolve Strategic [258] [257] Online1,60051%22%27%55%31%13%+24%32%44%25%−12%
1–4 Mar 2023NewspollOnline1,53054%28%18%55%38%7%+17%37%48%15%−11%
15–21 Feb 2023Morning Consult—————57%31%12%+26%————
15–19 Feb 2023Essential [329] Online1,044———53%34%13%+19%————
15–19 Feb 2023Resolve Strategic [260] [261] Online1,60455%23%22%56%30%13%+26%29%45%26%−16%
1–4 Feb 2023Newspoll [262] [263] Online1,51256%26%18%57%33%10%+24%36%46%18%−10%
18–22 Jan 2023Essential [330] Online1,050———55%31%13%+24%————
17–22 Jan 2023Resolve Strategic [265] [264] Online1,60655%20%25%60%25%15%+35%28%46%26%−18%
2022
DateFirmInterview modeSamplePreferred prime minister Albanese Dutton
AlbaneseDuttonDon't KnowSatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't KnowNetSatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't KnowNet
16–18 Dec 2022Freshwater Strategy [266] [267] [268] Online1,20955%29%16% [w] ––––––––
7–11 Dec 2022Essential [331] Online1,042–––60%27%13%+33%––––
30 Nov – 4 Dec 2022Resolve Strategic [269] [270] Online1,61154%19%27%60%24%16%+36%28%43%29%–15%
30 Nov – 3 Dec 2022Newspoll [271] Online1,50859%24%17%62%29%9%+33%36%45%19%–9%
16–22 Nov 2022Morning Consult [332] Online—–––56%31%25%+25%––––
9–14 Nov 2022Essential [333] Online1,035–––60%27%13%+33%––––
27–30 Oct 2022Newspoll [273] Online1,50054%27%19%59%33%8%+26%39%46%15%–7%
26–30 Oct 2022Resolve Strategic [274] [273] [334] Online1,61153%19%28%57%28%16%+29%29%41%30%–12%
13–16 Oct 2022Freshwater Strategic [x] [335] Online1,042–––50%26%24%+24%33%34%33%–1%
11–16 Oct 2022Essential [336] Online1,122–––58%26%15%+32%––––
5–9 Oct 2022Resolve Strategic [275] [276] Online1,60453%18%29%60%25%15%+35%30%41%28%–11%
14–18 Sep 2022Resolve Strategic [277] [278] Online1,60753%19%28%60%24%16%+36%28%40%32%–12%
31 Aug – 4 Sep 2022Essential [337] Online1,070———59%25%15%+34%————
31 Aug – 3 Sep 2022Newspoll [279] Online1,50561%22%17%61%29%10%+32%35%43%22%–8%
17–21 Aug 2022Resolve Strategic [281] [282] Online2,01155%17%28%61%22%17%+39%30%37%32%–7%
3–7 Aug 2022Essential [338] Online1,075———55%28%18%+27%————
27–30 Jul 2022[Newspoll] [283] Online1,50859%25%16%61%26%13%+35%37%41%22%–4%
7–11 Jul 2022Essential [339] Online1,097———56%24%20%+32%————
8–12 Jun 2022 Essential [340] Online1,087———59%18%23%+41%————
23–31 May 2022 Morning Consult [341] Online3,770———51%24%25%+27%————

Sub-national polling

New South Wales

Graphical summary

Primary vote

Australian federal election polling - 48th parliament - NSW primary.svg

Two-party preferred

Australian federal election polling - 48th parliament - NSW TPP.svg

Polling
DateFirmSample
size		Primary vote 2pp vote [y]
L/NP ALP GRN ONP UAP IND OTH ALP L/NP
3 May 2025 Election [5] 31.5%35.2%11.1%6.0%1.8%9.7%5.7%55.3%44.7%
24 Apr – 1 May 2025YouGov [342] 91532%30%14%9%——15%51%49%
27–30 Apr 2025DemosAU [342] 1,29135%31%10%9%——15%50%50%
24–29 Apr 2025RedBridge Group [342] 32135%34%8%———23%51%49%
24–28 Apr 2025Spectre Strategy/Dynata [14] [z] —34%30%14%10%——12%50%50%
23–28 Apr 2025Resolve Strategic [342] 63834%33%11%7%—11%4%51%49%
18–22 Apr 2025YouGov [342] 44026%35%16%10%——13%57%43%
27 Mar – 17 Apr 2025Newspoll [342] 1,59136%34%11%7%——12%52%48%
11–15 Apr 2025YouGov [342] 48733%32%17%5%——13%54%46%
9–13 Apr 2025Resolve Strategic [342] 52234%31%12%6%—14%3%50%50%
4–10 Apr 2025YouGov [342] 49532%30%17%10%——11%51%49%
28 Mar – 3 Apr 2025YouGov [342] 51335%29%17%5%——14%50%50%
26–30 Mar 2025Resolve Strategic [342] 1,02740%30%11%6%—10%4%47%53%
24–26 Mar 2025DemosAU [295] 1,01338%30%12%9%——11%49%51%
14–19 Mar 2025YouGov [342] 77336%28%16%7%——13%49.5%50.5%
17 Jan – 15 Mar 2025Freshwater Strategy [342] 94742%30%13%———15%48%52%
7–13 Mar 2025YouGov [342] 48236%28%15.5%7%——13.5%49.5%50.5%
20 Jan – 7 Mar 2025Newspoll [342] 1,14938%31%12%7%——12%50%50%
28 Feb – 6 Mar 2025YouGov [342] 47535%29%15%7%——14%50%50%
21–27 Feb 2025YouGov [342] 50635%26%15%12%——12%48.5%51.5%
18–23 Feb 2025Resolve Strategic [342] 47838%24%13%11%—10%3%45.5%54.5%
4–11 Feb 2025RedBridge/Accent [62] 30543%33%10%———14%47%53%
15–21 Jan 2025Resolve Strategic [342] 51339%27%13%5%—10%5%47.5%52.5%
4–8 Dec 2024Resolve Strategic [342] 50938%27%13%9%—11%2%47.5%52.5%
7 Oct – 6 Dec 2024Newspoll [342] 1,19340%32%10%7%——11%50%50%
5–10 Nov 2024Resolve Strategic [342] 51538%30%10%6%—13%3%50.5%49.5%
1–5 Oct 2024Resolve Strategic [342] 51039%31%10%5%—11%4%49.5%50.5%
15 Jul – 20 Sep 2024Newspoll [342] 1,59238%30%12%7%——13%49%51%
3–7 Sep 2024Resolve Strategic [342] 51337%30%12%6%1%12%3%50.5%49.5%
7–11 Aug 2024Resolve Strategic [342] 51039%29%12%4%2%9%4%49%51%
10–13 Jul 2024Resolve Strategic [342] 50939%27%13%6%1%12%2%48.5%51.5%
15 Apr – 26 Jun 2024Newspoll [342] 1,56740%33%11%6%——10%49%51%
11–16 Jun 2024Resolve Strategic [342] 51037%29%12%5%2%12%3%50%50%
15–19 May 2024Resolve Strategic [342] 51135%31%10%7%1%13%2%51%49%
17–21 Apr 2024Resolve Strategic [342] 51135%31%11%6%1%12%4%51.5%48.5%
21–24 Mar 2024Resolve Strategic [342] 51135%33%11%6%2%12%2%52.5%47.5%
31 Jan – 22 Mar 2024Newspoll [342] 1,15238%32%12%7%——11%50%50%
21–24 Feb 2024Resolve Strategic [342] 50937%34%10%4%1%10%4%52%48%
31 Oct – 15 Dec 2023Newspoll [342] 1,13937%32%13%7%——11%51%49%
29 Nov – 3 Dec 2023Resolve Strategic [342] 51035%35%12%5%1%10%2%54.5%45.5%
1–5 Nov 2023Resolve Strategic [342] 50931%37%14%6%1%8%4%58%42%
28 Aug – 12 Oct 2023Newspoll [342] 1,56534%38%13%5%——10%56%44%
22 Sep – 4 Oct 2023Resolve Strategic [212] 1,50232%34%13%8%2%10%2%55%45%
6–9 Sep 2023Resolve Strategic [220] 50936%39%8%6%2%7%3%54%46%
9–12 Aug 2023Resolve Strategic [227] 50934%42%11%4%1%8%1%58%42%
12–15 Jul 2023Resolve Strategic [231] 51132%39%10%9%0%8%2%56.5%43.5%
6–11 Jun 2023Resolve Strategic [238] 51033%39%10%6%1%9%2%56.5%43.5%
14–16 May 2023Resolve Strategic [247] 51130%46%9%5%1%7%2%61%39%
12–16 Apr 2023Resolve Strategic [342] 51130%43%9%6%1%8%2%59.5%40.5%
1 Feb – 3 Apr 2023Newspoll [342] 1,41435%38%10%7%——10%55%45%
12–16 Mar 2023Resolve Strategic [342] 50835%39%11%5%1%7%2%55.5%44.5%
15–19 Feb 2023Resolve Strategic [342] 50931%41%10%6%1%9%2%58.5%41.5%
17–22 Jan 2023Resolve Strategic [342] 51231%40%10%8%2%7%2%57.5%42.5%
30 Nov – 4 Dec 2022Resolve Strategic [342] 51233%38%12%5%3%8%2%56.5%43.5%
27 Jul – 3 Dec 2022Newspoll [342] 1,81735%38%11%6%——10%55%45%
26–30 Oct 2022Resolve Strategic [274] 51232%41%10%6%1%8%2%57.9%42.1%
5–9 Oct 2022Resolve Strategic [275] 50932%39%12%6%3%7%2%57%43%
14–18 Sep 2022Resolve Strategic [277] 51029%41%9%7%3%9%3%58.5%41.5%
17–21 Aug 2022Resolve Strategic [281] 63929%42%11%5%2%8%3%60.5%39.5%
21 Jun 2022Roy Morgan [286] ————————46.5%53.5%
21 May 2022 Election 36.5%33.4%10%4.8%4%7.6%3.7%51.4%48.6%

Victoria

Graphical summary

Primary vote

Australian federal election polling - 48th parliament - VIC primary.svg

Two-party preferred

Australian federal election polling - 48th parliament - VIC TPP.svg

Polling
DateFirmSample
size		Primary vote 2pp vote [aa]
L/NP ALP GRN UAP ONP IND OTH ALP L/NP
3 May 2025 Election [5] 32.2%34.0%13.6%1.2%5.8%7.5%5.7%56.3%43.7%
24 Apr – 1 May 2025YouGov [342] 80031%29%15%—8%—17%52%48%
27–30 Apr 2025DemosAU [342] 1,02932%31%12%—9%—16%53%47%
24–29 Apr 2025RedBridge Group [342] 25535%32%15%———18%53%47%
24–28 Apr 2025Spectre Strategy/Dynata [14] [z] —35%31%13%—10%—11%49%51%
23–28 Apr 2025Resolve Strategic [342] 50733%29%16%—7%9%6%52%48%
18–22 Apr 2025YouGov [342] 38135%31%17%—7%—10%52%48%
27 Mar – 17 Apr 2025Newspoll [342] 1,26338%33%13%—5%—11%53%47%
11–15 Apr 2025YouGov [342] 40835%30%14%—4%—17%50%50%
4–15 Apr 2025RedBridge/Accent [343] 47840%30%13%———17%49%51%
9–13 Apr 2025Resolve Strategic [342] 41436%29%13%—4%9%9%49.5%50.5%
4–10 Apr 2025YouGov [342] 35035%34%13%—5%—13%51%49%
28 Mar – 3 Apr 2025YouGov [342] 40937%34%10%—5%—14%50%50%
26–30 Mar 2025Resolve Strategic [342] 81735%27%14%—6%10%7%49.5%50.5%
17–21 Mar 2025DemosAU [296] 1,00634%29%15%—8%—14%51%49%
14–19 Mar 2025YouGov [342] 47442%29%13%—5%—11%47.5%52.5%
17 Jan – 15 Mar 2025Freshwater Strategy [342] 84237%29%15%———19%50%50%
7–13 Mar 2025YouGov [342] 38441.5%28.5%13%—5%—12%47.5%52.5%
20 Jan – 7 Mar 2025Newspoll [342] 94339%30%15%—4%—12%51%49%
28 Feb – 6 Mar 2025YouGov [342] 37939%30%9%—6%—16%48%52%
21–27 Feb 2025YouGov [342] 35237%31%14%—5%—13%50%50%
20–25 Feb 2025RedBridge/Accent [56] ————————43%57%
18–23 Feb 2025Resolve Strategic [342] 38038%24%15%—6%11%6%48%52%
4–11 Feb 2025RedBridge/Accent [62] 26151%31%8%———10%42%58%
15–21 Jan 2025Resolve Strategic [342] 40738%25%13%—6%12%6%47.5%52.5%
4–8 Dec 2024Resolve Strategic [342] 40438%26%12%—5%12%7%48%52%
7 Oct – 6 Dec 2024Newspoll [342] 94739%30%14%—5%—12%50%50%
5–10 Nov 2024Resolve Strategic [342] 40938%31%14%—4%10%2%52.5%47.5%
1–5 Oct 2024Resolve Strategic [342] 40537%29%14%—5%9%5%50.5%49.5%
15 Jul – 20 Sep 2024Newspoll [342] 1,26338%31%13%—6%—12%52%48%
3–7 Sep 2024Resolve Strategic [342] 40736%29%13%2%4%12%4%51.5%48.5%
7–11 Aug 2024Resolve Strategic [342] 40533%30%13%1%6%13%3%53.5%46.5%
10–13 Jul 2024Resolve Strategic [342] 40436%30%15%2%5%11%2%52.5%47.5%
15 Apr – 26 Jun 2024Newspoll [342] 39336%33%15%—6%—10%54%46%
11–16 Jun 2024Resolve Strategic [342] 40532%29%15%1%7%11%4%54%46%
15–19 May 2024Resolve Strategic [342] 40634%29%14%2%6%12%2%52.5%47.5%
17–21 Apr 2024Resolve Strategic [342] 40634%32%11%4%5%12%2%52.5%47.5%
21–24 Mar 2024Resolve Strategic [342] 40635%35%13%2%5%9%2%54.5%45.5%
31 Jan – 22 Mar 2024Newspoll [342] 92634%33%16%—5%—12%55%45%
21–24 Feb 2024Resolve Strategic [342] 40434%32%13%2%4%8%7%54%46%
31 Oct – 15 Dec 2023Newspoll [342] 91734%34%15%—5%—12%55%45%
29 Nov – 3 Dec 2023Resolve Strategic [342] 40534%37%11%1%4%9%4%55.5%44.5%
1–5 Nov 2023Resolve Strategic [342] 40425%37%14%3%8%9%4%60.5%39.5%
28 Aug – 12 Oct 2023Newspoll [342] 88735%36%13%—4%—12%54%46%
22 Sep – 4 Oct 2023Resolve Strategic [212] 1,19230%39%11%2%6%8%2%58%42%
6–9 Sep 2023Resolve Strategic [220] 40432%40%13%2%3%8%2%58.5%41.5%
9–12 Aug 2023Resolve Strategic [227] 40430%38%14%1%3%10%4%59.5%40.5%
12–15 Jul 2023Resolve Strategic [231] 40626%42%13%2%5%9%3%58%42%
6–11 Jun 2023Resolve Strategic [238] 40525%40%15%3%6%7%4%62.5%37.5%
14–16 May 2023Resolve Strategic [247] 40625%48%12%1%4%7%2%66%34%
12–16 Apr 2023Resolve Strategic [342] 40632%39%11%2%3%11%3%57.5%42.5%
1 Feb – 3 Apr 2023Newspoll [342] 1,19333%41%11%—4%—11%58%42%
12–16 Mar 2023Resolve Strategic [342] 40329%43%9%1%6%8%4%60%40%
15–19 Feb 2023Resolve Strategic [342] 40427%40%14%2%3%11%2%62%38%
17–22 Jan 2023Resolve Strategic [342] 40631%41%13%2%3%7%4%59.5%40.5%
30 Nov – 4 Dec 2022Resolve Strategic [342] 40627%46%11%2%2%7%5%63.5%36.5%
27 Jul – 3 Dec 2022Newspoll [342] 1,44833%37%13%—5%—12%57%43%
26–30 Oct 2022Resolve Strategic [274] 40632%39%12%2%2%11%3%58%42%
5–9 Oct 2022Resolve Strategic [275] 40430%40%10%5%4%9%3%58%42%
14–18 Sep 2022Resolve Strategic [277] 40530%38%14%2%3%8%5%59.5%40.5%
17–21 Aug 2022Resolve Strategic [281] 50724%42%11%3%5%10%5%63%37%
21 Jun 2022Roy Morgan [286] ————————60.5%39.5%
21 May 2022 Election 33.1%32.9%13.7%4.7%3.8%6.5%5.3%54.8%45.2%

Queensland

Graphical summary

Primary vote


Australian federal election polling - 48th parliament - QLD Primary.svg

Two-party preferred

Australian federal election polling - 48th parliament - QLD TPP.svg

Polling
DateFirmSample
size		Primary vote 2pp vote [ab]
LNP ALP GRN ONP UAP IND OTH LNP ALP
3 May 2025 Election [5] 34.9%31.0%11.8%7.8%3.3%11.2%—50.6%49.45
24 Apr – 1 May 2025YouGov [342] 63135%27%17%7%——14%51%49%
27–30 Apr 2025DemosAU [342] 85839%26%13%7%——15%54%46%
24–29 Apr 2025RedBridge Group [342] 20643%27%10%———20%57%43%
24–28 Apr 2025Spectre Strategy/Dynata [14] [z] —36%28%15%11%——10%53%47%
23–28 Apr 2025Resolve Strategic [342] 40937%26%15%9%—8%5%54%46%
18–22 Apr 2025YouGov [342] 32037%25%12%13%——13%54%46%
27 Mar – 17 Apr 2025Newspoll [342] 1,05340%29%12%8%——11%54%46%
11–15 Apr 2025YouGov [342] 29341%30%7%8%——14%57.5%42.5%
9–13 Apr 2025Resolve Strategic [342] 33438%29%13%8%—8%4%53%47%
4–10 Apr 2025YouGov [342] 31742%25%11%7%——15%58%42%
28 Mar – 3 Apr 2025YouGov [342] 33238%24%13%12%——13%56%44%
26–30 Mar 2025Resolve Strategic [342] 65839%25%13%12%—6%6%56.5%43.5%
14–19 Mar 2025YouGov [342] 37855%27%6%5%——7%63%37%
17 Jan – 15 Mar 2025Freshwater Strategy [342] 66542%25%15%———18%55.5%44.5%
7–13 Mar 2025YouGov [342] 31234%29.5%15.5%10.5%——10.5%50.5%49.5%
20 Jan – 7 Mar 2025Newspoll [342] 78645%28%11%7%——9%57%43%
28 Feb – 6 Mar 2025YouGov [342] 30734%33%17%8%——8%47%53%
21–27 Feb 2025YouGov [342] 30247%23%8%10%——12%60.5%39.5%
18–23 Feb 2025Resolve Strategic [342] 30641%25%12%8%—9%4%56.5%43.5%
10–14 Feb 2025DemosAU [344] 1,00439%31%12%10%——8%53%47%
4–11 Feb 2025RedBridge/Accent [62] 19042%29%16%———13%51%49%
15–21 Jan 2025Resolve Strategic [342] 32942%26%11%7%—7%6%56.5%43.5%
4–8 Dec 2024Resolve Strategic [342] 32638%25%13%9%—8%7%55%45%
7 Oct – 6 Dec 2024Newspoll [342] 79041%29%12%8%——10%53%47%
5–10 Nov 2024Resolve Strategic [342] 33043%29%8%6%—8%6%56%44%
26 Oct 2024 State Election 41.5%32.6%9.9%8.0%—1.7%6.3%53.8%46.2%
4–16 Oct 2024RedBridge Group [307] 2,31541%28%13%10%——8%54.5%45.5%
1–5 Oct 2024Resolve Strategic [342] 32742%25%12%6%—13%2%55.5%44.5%
15 Jul – 20 Sep 2024Newspoll [342] 1,05343%30%12%8%——7%54%46%
3–7 Sep 2024Resolve Strategic [342] 32840%27%13%9%2%9%1%53.5%46.5%
7–11 Aug 2024Resolve Strategic [342] 32741%24%11%10%2%8%4%56%44%
10–13 Jul 2024Resolve Strategic [342] 32644%23%10%7%0%14%1%57.5%42.5%
15 Apr – 26 Jun 2024Newspoll [342] 32840%27%13%10%——10%54%46%
11–16 Jun 2024Resolve Strategic [342] 32740%24%13%8%1%11%3%54.5%45.5%
15–19 May 2024Resolve Strategic [342] 32743%26%12%8%3%8%1%55.5%44.5%
17–21 Apr 2024Resolve Strategic [342] 32740%25%14%9%2%8%2%54%46%
21–24 Mar 2024Resolve Strategic [342] 32736%30%14%7%1%9%2%49%51%
31 Jan – 22 Mar 2024Newspoll [342] 77241%29%12%7%——11%53%47%
21–24 Feb 2024Resolve Strategic [342] 32644%32%9%9%2%3%1%54.5%45.5%
31 Oct – 15 Dec 2023Newspoll [342] 76441%27%12%8%——12%54%46%
29 Nov – 3 Dec 2023Resolve Strategic [342] 32638%33%12%8%2%8%0%49.5%50.5%
1–5 Nov 2023Resolve Strategic [342] 32636%31%12%11%1%6%3%50%50%
28 Aug – 12 Oct 2023Newspoll [342] 88739%30%11%9%——11%52%48%
22 Sep – 4 Oct 2023Resolve Strategic [212] 96134%33%11%9%1%10%1%48%52%
6–9 Sep 2023Resolve Strategic [220] 32635%29%16%9%2%7%2%49%51%
9–12 Aug 2023Resolve Strategic [227] 32640%28%9%8%2%10%3%54%46%
12–15 Jul 2023Resolve Strategic [231] 32736%33%12%6%2%10%1%48%52%
6–11 Jun 2023Resolve Strategic [238] 32731%38%10%11%2%7%1%45%55%
14–16 May 2023Resolve Strategic [247] 32739%27%17%7%3%6%2%51.5%48.5%
12–16 Apr 2023Resolve Strategic [342] 32729%37%15%8%2%7%2%42.5%57.5%
1 Feb – 3 Apr 2023Newspoll [342] 99539%33%10%8%——10%50%50%
12–16 Mar 2023Resolve Strategic [342] 32524%39%14%6%1%14%2%38.5%61.5%
15–19 Feb 2023Resolve Strategic [342] 32635%39%10%9%1%0%5%46%54%
17–22 Jan 2023Resolve Strategic [342] 32830%38%11%9%1%8%2%43.5%56.5%
30 Nov – 4 Dec 2022Resolve Strategic [342] 32834%43%7%6%1%6%2%44%56%
27 Jul – 3 Dec 2022Newspoll [342] 1,20740%33%12%6%——9%51%49%
26–30 Oct 2022Resolve Strategic [274] 32832%36%16%4%2%6%4%43%57%
5–9 Oct 2022Resolve Strategic [275] 32638%31%14%6%2%7%2%50%50%
14–18 Sep 2022Resolve Strategic [277] 32731%42%7%10%2%7%2%44%56%
17–21 Aug 2022Resolve Strategic [281] 40931%37%16%6%2%6%3%42.5%57.5%
21 Jun 2022Roy Morgan [286] ————————50%50%
21 May 2022 Election 39.6%27.4%12.9%7.5%5.1%2.1%5.4%54%46%

Western Australia

Graphical summary

Primary vote

Australian federal election polling - 48th parliament - WA Primary.svg

Two-party preferred

WATPP25poll.svg

Polling
DateFirmSample
size		Primary vote 2pp vote
ALP L/NP GRN ONP UAP OTHUND ALP L/NP
3 May 2025 Election [5] 35.6%31.5%12.0%7.6%0.6%12.7%—55.8%44.2%
24 Apr – 1 May 2025YouGov [342] 28732%35%15%12%—6%—50%50%
27–30 Apr 2025DemosAU [342] 40934%31%15%11%—9%—56%44%
24–28 Apr 2025Spectre Strategy/Dynata [14] [z] —36%32%17%7%—8%—54%46%
18–22 Apr 2025YouGov [342] 14940%28%12%11%—9%—58%42%
27 Mar – 17 Apr 2025Newspoll [342] 50136%34%11%9%—10%—54%46%
11–15 Apr 2025YouGov [342] 12837%27%12%14%—10%—57%43%
4–10 Apr 2025YouGov [342] 14439%29%8%11%—13%—56%44%
28 Mar – 3 Apr 2025YouGov [342] 16630%36%12%9%—13%—49%51%
14–19 Mar 2025YouGov [342] 11143%34%8%9%—6%—54%46%
17 Jan – 15 Mar 2025Freshwater Strategy [342] 31833%35%15%——17%—52%48%
7–13 Mar 2025YouGov [342] 15542.5%34.5%8%9%—6%—54%46%
20 Jan – 7 Mar 2025Newspoll [342] 37437%34%11%9%—9%—54%46%
4–5 March 2025DemosAU [345] 112636%38%11%6%—9%—52%48%
1 Oct – 8 Dec 2024Resolve Strategic [342] 46030%37%12%5%—16%—50%50%
7 Oct – 6 Dec 2024Newspoll [342] 37638%37%11%5%—9%—54%46%
30 Oct – 4 Nov 2024DemosAU [346] 94834%38%14%6%—8%—52%48%
1–10 Oct 2024Redbridge [347] 1,51435%34%—————54.5%45.5%
15 Jul – 20 Sep 2024Newspoll [342] 56236%39%11%4%—10%—52%48%
15 Apr – 26 Jun 2024Newspoll [342] 15634%37%11%5%—13%—52%48%
31 Jan – 22 Mar 2024Newspoll [342] 36834%39%8%6%—13%—49%51%
31 Oct – 15 Dec 2023Newspoll [342] 36437%37%11%5%—10%—54%46%
6–13 Dec 2023RedBridge [348] 1,20339%37%12%5%—7%—55.2%44.8%
28 Aug – 12 Oct 2023Newspoll [342] 62038%38%10%6%—8%—53%47%
1 Feb – 3 Apr 2023Newspoll [342] 47440%33%11%6%—10%—57%43%
27 Jul – 3 Dec 2022Newspoll [342] 57539%34%9%7%—11%—55%45%
21 Jun 2022Roy Morgan [286] 144———————50.5%49.5%
21 May 2022 Election 36.8%34.8%12.5%4%2.3%9.6%—55%45%

South Australia

Graphical summary

Primary vote

Australian federal election polling - 48th parliament - SA Primary.svg

Two-party preferred

Australian federal election polling - 48th parliament - SA TPP.svg

Polling
DateFirmSample
size		Primary vote 2pp vote
L/NP ALP GRN ONP UAP OTHUND ALP L/NP
3 May 2025 Election [5] 28.4%38.3%13.4%6.253.2%10.5%—59.2%40.8%
24 Apr – 1 May 2025YouGov [342] 24124%35%11%15%—15%—53%47%
18–22 Apr 2025YouGov [342] 12621%45%10%15%—9%—60%40%
27 Mar – 17 Apr 2025Newspoll [342] 37331%34%12%9%—14%—55%45%
11–15 Apr 2025YouGov [342] 11330%35%8%16%—11%—50%50%
4–10 Apr 2025YouGov [342] 12630%32%13%12%—13%—51%49%
28 Mar – 3 Apr 2025YouGov [342] 12034%35%8%7%—16%—51%49%
14–19 Mar 2025YouGov [342] 30733.5%32.5%10%8%—16%—50.5%49.5%
7–13 Mar 2025YouGov [342] 11333.5%33%9.5%8%—16%—51%49%
20 Jan – 7 Mar 2025Newspoll [342] 27137%32%11%11%—9%—50%50%
18–23 Feb 2025DemosAU [349] 44035%34%11%6%—14%—53%47%
1 Oct – 8 Dec 2024Resolve Strategic [342] 35934%27%12%8%—19%—49.5%50.5%
7 Oct – 6 Dec 2024Newspoll [342] 28037%35%9%7%—12%—53%47%
15 Jul – 20 Sep 2024Newspoll [342] 37435%36%9%10%—10%—54%46%
15 Apr – 26 Jun 2024Newspoll [342] 36834%34%11%12%—9%—53%47%
31 Jan – 22 Mar 2024Newspoll [342] 27833%35%11%10%—11%—54%46%
31 Oct – 15 Dec 2023Newspoll [342] 27735%38%10%6%—11%—55%45%
28 Aug – 12 Oct 2023Newspoll [342] 36230%40%10%11%—9%—57%43%
1 Feb – 3 Apr 2023Newspoll [342] 36235%38%12%5%—10%—56%44%
27 Jul – 3 Dec 2022Newspoll [342] 44935%40%12%6%—7%—57%43%
21 Jun 2022Roy Morgan [286] 103———————60.5%39.5%
21 May 2022 Election 35.54%34.46%12.77%4.83%3.89%8.51%—53.97%46.03%

Tasmania

Graphical summary

Primary vote

Australian federal election polling - 48th parliament - TAS Primary.svg

Two-party preferred

Australian federal election polling - 48th parliament - TAS TPP.svg

Polling
DateFirmSample
size		Primary vote 2pp vote
L/NP ALP GRN ONP UAP IND OTH ALP L/NP
3 May 2025 Election [5] 24.5%36.6%11.1%6.0%2.5%18.0%1.2%63.3%36.7%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge [342] 10735%25%12%———28%48%52%
1 Feb – 26 May 2024Accent/RedBridge [342] 10730%29%15%———26%54%46%
28 Aug – 12 Oct 2023Newspoll [342] 36625%30%13%———27%57%43%
21 Jun 2022Roy Morgan [286] ————————63%37%
21 May 2022 Election 32.9%27.3%12%4%1.8%11.2%10.8%54.3%45.7%

Northern Territory

Polling

DateFirmSample
size		Primary vote 2pp vote [ac]
CLP ALP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP CLP
3 May 2025 Election [5] 33.8%37.9%10.2%7.7%7.8%2.6%54.3%45.7%
16–18 Nov 2023Redbridge Group [351] 60140.4%22.2%11.1%11.7%7.2%7.4%43.9%56.1%
21 May 2022 Election 29.4%38.2%13.1%5.4%1.3%12.7%55.5%44.5%

Individual seat polling

Electorate projections

DateBrandProjection
Type		Sample
Size		Seat TallyMajority
ALP L/NP GRN OTH
3 May 2025 2025 Federal election 9443112ALP 19
29 Apr – 1 May 2025Freshwater Strategy [8] Monte Carlo 2,0557068111Hung
(ALP 6 short)
1 Apr – 29 Apr 2025YouGov [19] [ad] MRP 10,8228447316ALP 9
14–16 Apr 2025Freshwater Strategy [24] Monte Carlo 1,0626869112Hung
(L/NP 7 short)
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent Research/RedBridge Group
[352] [353] 		MRP 9,9537263312Hung
(ALP 4 short)
28–30 Mar 2025Freshwater Strategy [36] Monte Carlo 1,0596770112Hung
(L/NP 6 short)
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [40] [ae] MRP 10,2177560213Hung
(ALP 1 short)
13–15 Mar 2025Freshwater Strategy [47] Monte Carlo 1,0516770112Hung
(L/NP 6 short)
21–23 Feb 2025Freshwater Strategy [57] Monte Carlo 1,0386671112Hung
(L/NP 5 short)
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [61] [af] MRP 8,7326673110Hung
(L/NP 3 short)
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [354] MRP 4,9096571410Hung
(L/NP 5 short)
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [355] MRP 5,9766968310Hung
(ALP 7 short)
Feb – May 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [356] MRP 4,0407760311ALP 2
21 May 2022 2022 Federal Election 7758412ALP 2

Exit polls

DateBrandSample sizeSeat tallyMajority
ALP L/NP GRN OTH
3 May 2025 2025 Federal election 9443112ALP 19
22–24 Apr 2025 The Daily Telegraph [357] [ag] 4,0008150413ALP 6
22 Apr 2025Early voting begins
21 May 2022 2022 Federal election 7758412ALP 2

Subpopulation results

By age

18–34

DateBrandInterview
mode		Sample
size		Primary vote 2PP vote [a]
L/NP ALP GRN ONP TOP [b] OTHUND ALP L/NP
24–27 Apr 2025Essential [358] Online1,50027%30%21%6%1%8%7%54%39%
9–14 Apr 2025Essential [358] Online1,50022%36%24%6%2%6%5%62%33%
26–30 Mar 2025Essential [358] Online1,50028%29%24%5%0%9%—56%39%
18 Mar 2025Essential [358] Online1,50031%30%20%3%1%7%—51%41%
4 Mar 2025Essential [358] Online1,50029%30%20%5%1%11%—53%44%
18 Feb 2025Essential [358] Online1,50029%35%17%7%3%4%—53%42%
4 Feb 2025Essential [358] Online1,50030%31%19%7%1%7%—52%42%
21 Jan 2025Essential [358] Online1,50032%25%23%5%4%5%—49%44%
17 Dec 2024Essential [358] Online1,50028%36%20%1%2%8%—54%41%
3 Dec 2024Essential [358] Online1,50032%35%14%4%2%7%—49%45%
19 Nov 2024Essential [358] Online1,50029%29%23%4%2%7%—51%42%
5 Nov 2024Essential [358] Online1,50028%34%19%3%4%6%—55%39%
21 Mar 2023Essential [358] Online1,50022%30%29%3%5%—61%34%
7 Mar 2023Essential [358] Online1,50026%34%22%4%3%—55%38%
21 Feb 2023Essential [358] Online1,50020%31%30%6%1%5%—60%33%
7 Feb 2023Essential [358] Online1,50017%33%33%4%3%4%—68%26%
24 Jan 2023Essential [358] Online1,50019%32%32%6%1%5%—65%30%
13 Dec 2022Essential [358] Online1,50025%36%24%2%4%4%—59%35%

35–54

DateBrandInterview
mode		Sample
size		Primary vote 2pp vote [a]
L/NP ALP GRN ONP TOP [b] OTHUND ALP L/NP
24–27 Apr 2025Essential [358] Online1,50027%34%14%11%2%8%4%54%41%
9–14 Apr 2025Essential [358] Online1,50028%32%12%9%3%10%5%54%41%
26–30 Mar 2025Essential [358] Online1,50029%32%10%12%4%6%750%43%
18 Mar 2025Essential [358] Online1,50029%29%14%12%1%10%649%45%
4 Mar 2025Essential [358] Online1,50032%30%13%11%0%10%—50%46%
18 Feb 2025Essential [358] Online1,50030%28%14%12%0%11%—50%46%
4 Feb 2025Essential [358] Online1,50029%28%15%10%1%11%—50%45%
21 Jan 2025Essential [358] Online1,50030%35%9%9%3%8%—52%43%
17 Dec 2024Essential [358] Online1,50028%29%18%9%1%11%—50%46%
3 Dec 2024Essential [358] Online1,50030%35%13%9%1%8%—52%43%
21 Mac 2023Essential [358] Online1,50030%40%10%6%2%9%—54%43%
7 Mac 2023Essential [358] Online1,50027%32%12%10%3%9%—51%42%
21 Feb 2023Essential [358] Online1,50026%33%11%7%5%9%—50%41%
7 Feb 2023Essential [358] Online1,50026%35%13%6%2%11%—56%36%

55+

DateBrandInterview
mode		Sample
size		Primary vote 2PP vote [a]
L/NP ALP GRN ONP TOP [b] OTHUND ALP L/NP
24–27 Apr 2025Essential [358] Online1,50041%28%4%10%3%10%3%42%54%
9–14 Apr 2025Essential [358] Online1,50043%27%5%11%2%10%3%39%58%
26–30 Mar 2025Essential [358] Online1,50044%27%4%9%2%9%4%39%57%
18 Mar 2025Essential [358] Online1,50042%30%5%8%1%10%—42%54%
4 Mar 2025Essential [358] Online1,50041%28%7%8%1%9%—41%53%
18 Feb 2025Essential [358] Online1,50043%28%6%7%1%12%—43%54%
4 Feb 2025Essential [358] Online1,50045%31%5%8%1%8%—40%58%
21 Jan 2025Essential [358] Online1,50046%28%6%8%1%9%—40%57%
17 Dec 2024Essential [358] Online1,50045%26%5%7%1%12%—40%55%
3 Dec 2024Essential [358] Online1,50042%27%8%9%1%11%—42%55%
19 Nov 2024Essential [358] Online1,50045%28%5%7%1%10%—40%56%
7 Mac 2023Essential [358] Online1,50041%31%4%6%1%10%—42%52%
21 Feb 2023Essential [358] Online1,50040%34%4%4%2%10%—43%50%
7 Feb 2023Essential [358] Online1,50043%30%7%7%0%9%—44%53%
24 Jan 2023Essential [358] Online1,50040%33%4%9%0%8%—43%51%
13 Dec 2022Essential [358] Online1,50037%36%6%8%0%10%—47%49%

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Resolve Strategic Poll 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2022 Australian federal election by the Poll Bludger, Kevin Bonham and the Federal 2PP estimator made by Armarium Interreta.
  2. 1 2 3 4 In February 2025, the High Court ruled that the United Australia Party (UAP) could not be re-registered for the 2025 federal election. [1] UAP founder Clive Palmer subsequently joined another political party, Trumpet of Patriots (TOP). [2] The final poll to feature the UAP was from Roy Morgan and released on 17 February 2025, with the first poll to feature TOP from YouGov on 28 February 2025. [3] [4]
  3. ↑ Sum corrected to round to 100
  4. ↑ Including 7% for independents, 2% for Family First, 1% for Legalise Cannabis, 1% for the Libertarian Party, and 3% for all others. [20]
  5. ↑ Including projected vote patterns from independent voters and voters for other parties. Independents under this projection would receive 8.3% of the first-preference vote while other parties would receive 3.9% of the first-preference vote.
  6. 1 2 3 4 5 Poll shows the United Australia Party (UAP) prior to Clive Palmer joining Trumpet of Patriots (TOP). [45]
  7. ↑ Polling of 20 marginal seats
  8. ↑ Including projected vote patterns from independent voters and voters for other parties. Independents under this projection would receive 8.9% of the first-preference vote while other parties would receive 2.8% of the first-preference vote.
  9. ↑ Polling of 20 marginal seats
  10. ↑ Total of 3% "Unsure" + 11% "Neither"
  11. ↑ Total of 3% "Unsure" + 11% "Neither"
  12. ↑ Total of 4% "Unsure" + 12% "Neither"
  13. ↑ Total of 4% "Unsure" + 12% "Neither"
  14. ↑ Total of 4% "Unsure" + 12% "Neither"
  15. ↑ Polling conducted in Queensland.
  16. ↑ Total of 4% "Unsure" + 12% "Neither"
  17. ↑ Total of 4% "Unsure" + 11% "Neither"
  18. ↑ Total of 3% "Unsure" + 16% "Neither"
  19. ↑ Total of 3% "Unsure" + 12% "Neither"
  20. ↑ Total of 5% "Unsure" + 13% "Neither"
  21. ↑ Total of 3% "Unsure" + 14% "Neither"
  22. ↑ Total of 5% "Unsure" + 11% "Neither"
  23. ↑ Total of 4% "Unsure" + 12% "Neither"
  24. ↑ Polling conducted in NSW.
  25. ↑ Resolve Strategic 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2022 Australian federal election in New South Wales.
  26. 1 2 3 4 Spectre Strategy sum is greater than 100 due to rounding.
  27. ↑ Resolve Strategic 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2022 Australian federal election in Victoria.
  28. ↑ Resolve Strategic 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2022 Australian federal election in Queensland.
  29. ↑ Some polling forms do not release two-party-preferred results. Results shown for polls conducted by these firms are manually calculated using preference flows in 2022. [350]
  30. ↑ Multiple projections were calculated. Displayed here is the central result. On the low end was a Coalition result of 45 seats, the Labor Party would get 76, the Greens would get 2 seats, Independents would get 13 seats and all others would get 2 seats. On the high end was a scenario in which the Coalition would win 53 seats, the Labor Party would get 85 seats, the Greens would get 5 seats, Independents would get 16 seats and all other parties would get 4 seats. In all of these predictions One Nation would not win any seats.
  31. ↑ Multiple projections were calculated. Displayed here is the central result. On the low end was a Coalition result of 55 seats, the Labor Party would get 69, the Greens would get 1 seat, Independents would get 7 seats and all others would get 2 seats. On the high end was a scenario in which the Coalition would win 68 seats, the Labor Party would get 80 seats, the Greens would get 3 seats, Independents would get 11 seats and all other parties would get 2 seats. In all of these predictions One Nation would not win any seats.
  32. ↑ Multiple projections were calculated. Displayed here is the central result. On the low end was a Coalition result of 65 seats, the Labor Party would get 59, the Greens would get 1 seat, Independents would get 7 seats and all others would get 2 seats. On the high end was a scenario in which the Coalition would win 80 seats, the Labor Party would get 72 seats, the Greens would get 3 seats, Independents would get 10 seats and all other parties would get 2 seats. In all of these predictions One Nation would not win any seats.
  33. ↑ Seat totals shown on The Today Show .

References

  1. ↑ "'Make Australia great again': Palmer returns, with Trumpist pledge". The New Daily. 19 February 2025. Archived from the original on 19 February 2025. Retrieved 19 February 2025.
  2. ↑ "Clive Palmer announces 'Trumpet of Patriots' political party". Sky News Australia. 19 February 2025. Archived from the original on 19 February 2025. Retrieved 19 February 2025.
  3. 1 2 "Federal vote unchanged: Coalition 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5%". Roy Morgan Research. 17 February 2025. Archived from the original on 17 February 2025. Retrieved 27 February 2025.
  4. ↑ Brown, Andrew (27 February 2025). "Industry bailout steels Labor but poll pain persists". Yahoo! News. Australian Associated Press. Archived from the original on 27 February 2025. Retrieved 27 February 2025.
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 "Party Totals". abc.net.au. 3 May 2025. Retrieved 8 June 2025.
  6. ↑ "ALP set to win Federal Election with an expanded majority – ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%". Roy Morgan . 2 May 2025. Archived from the original on 2 May 2025. Retrieved 2 May 2025.
  7. 1 2 "Federal Election 2025: Final Ipsos poll of election reveals tight contest in two-party preferred vote but predicts Labor minority". SkyNews Australia. 3 May 2025. Archived from the original on 3 May 2025. Retrieved 3 May 2025.
  8. 1 2 3 "Explore our exclusive polling data for Election 2025". Australian Financial Review. 23 February 2025. Archived from the original on 11 June 2025. Retrieved 1 May 2025.
  9. 1 2 3 4 Bowe, William (2 May 2025). "Final polls: Newspoll and DemosAU (open thread)". The Poll Bludger. Retrieved 2 May 2025.
  10. 1 2 "Labor on track for victory as Dutton records lowest satisfaction rating on record". YouGov . 2 May 2025. Archived from the original on 2 May 2025. Retrieved 2 May 2025.
  11. ↑ "#auspol Labor set up for a majority win. Dutton's net satisfaction hits record low. #aap reported other vote as 4%. it should be 5.2%". 3 May 2025.
  12. ↑ "The Poll Bludger". www.pollbludger.net. Retrieved 1 May 2025.
  13. ↑ https://www.couriermail.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?mode=passentitlement%5B%5D
  14. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "PRE-ELECTION VOTE INTENTIONS April 2025" (PDF). www.pollbludger.net. Archived (PDF) from the original on 30 April 2025. Retrieved 30 April 2025.
  15. ↑ Crowe, David (29 April 2025). "Labor holds clear lead as time runs short for a Coalition rebound, poll reveals". The Age. Archived from the original on 29 April 2025. Retrieved 29 April 2025.
  16. ↑ Butler, Josh (29 April 2024). "Guardian Essential poll: Labor leads Coalition in final pre-election poll as Dutton's approval rating slips further". The Guardian. Retrieved 29 April 2024.
  17. ↑ "ALP in front but two-party preferred lead cut significantly as early voting favours the Coalition: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%)". Roy Morgan. 28 April 2024. Archived from the original on 28 April 2025. Retrieved 28 April 2024.
  18. ↑ "Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor (open thread)". Poll Bludger. 27 April 2024. Retrieved 27 April 2024.
  19. 1 2 "Labour to win with an increased majority in YouGov's final MRP of the election | YouGov". au.yougov.com. Archived from the original on 30 April 2025. Retrieved 30 April 2025.
  20. 1 2 3 "National Poll April 22-23 2025" (PDF). DemosAU. 28 April 2025. Archived from the original (PDF) on 28 April 2025. Retrieved 28 April 2025.
  21. ↑ "Labor reaches record high two-party preferred lead as coalition primary vote slumps". YouGov. 24 April 2024. Retrieved 24 April 2024.
  22. ↑ "ALP increases election-winning two-party preferred lead to 55.5% cf. 44.5% L-NP as early voting has now started". Roy Morgan. 22 April 2025. Retrieved 22 April 2025.
  23. 1 2 "Newspoll: Voters back Dutton on defence, economy as Labor lifts". The Australian. 20 April 2025. Retrieved 20 April 2025.
  24. 1 2 3 "Labor takes half-time lead as Dutton support drops". Australian Financial Review. 16 April 2025. Retrieved 16 April 2025.
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