2023 Fadden by-election

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2023 Fadden by-election
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Division of Fadden (Queensland) in the
House of Representatives
 First partySecond party
  LNP Placeholder.png Labor Placeholder.png
Candidate Cameron Caldwell Letitia Del Fabbro
Party Liberal National Labor
Popular vote43,55419,580
Percentage49.08%22.06%
SwingIncrease2.svg 4.46Decrease2.svg 0.29
TPP 63.35%36.65%
TPP swingIncrease2.svg 2.72Decrease2.svg 2.72
Division of Fadden 2019.png
The Division of Fadden is located in southeastern Queensland.
MP before election

Stuart Robert
Liberal National

Elected MP

Cameron Caldwell
Liberal National

The 2023 Fadden by-election was held on 15 July 2023 to elect the next member of the Australian House of Representatives in the electorate of Fadden in Queensland. The by-election was held as the result of the resignation on 18 May 2023 of the sitting member, Stuart Robert, who had represented the Liberal National Party (LNP) and sat in parliament with the Liberal Party of Australia. [1] [2]

Contents

The by-election was won by the LNP's candidate, Cameron Caldwell, with a positive swing of nearly 3% on the two-party preferred vote. [3] The Labor Party's candidate, Letitia Del Fabbro, conceded defeat approximately two hours after the polls closed. [4]

Background

The Division of Fadden is situated in the northern part of the Gold Coast. The area has a mix of residential, commercial, and industrial areas and is a popular tourist destination due to its proximity to the Gold Coast theme parks (Dreamworld, Movie World, Sea World and Wet'n'Wild). [5] As of the 2021 census, the Division of Fadden has a population of approximately 163,000 people. The division has a higher-than-average proportion of young families and first-home buyers, as well as a large retiree population. The median weekly household income in the division is $1,719, which is slightly higher than the national average. [6]

The division has largely been a safe seat for the Liberal National Party and its predecessors since its creation, with only one period of Labor representation between 1983 and 1984. Stuart Robert had held the seat since 2007. Robert previously held various ministerial positions, including Minister for Veterans' Affairs and Minister for Human Services. [7]

Robert had been involved in several scandals prior to his resignation from the seat, including allegedly intervening in contracts to sign up corporate clients to a lobbying firm he had links to, [8] billing taxpayers $3000 per month for his home internet [9] and his role in the Morrison Government’s illegal Robodebt scheme. [10]

Two-party-preferred vote in Fadden, 1996–2022
Election 1996 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022
  Liberal/LNP 67.84%57.59%62.29%65.28%60.20%64.19%64.36%61.05%64.18%60.63%
  Labor 32.16%42.41%37.71%34.72%39.80%35.81%35.64%38.95%35.82%39.37%
GovernmentL/NPL/NPL/NPL/NPALPALPL/NPL/NPL/NPALP

2022 election results

Robert suffered a two-party-preferred 3.55% swing against him in the 2022 federal election, but the seat remains a safe Liberal National seat with a two-party-preferred vote of 60.63%. Despite having an increase in the two-party-preferred vote, Labor had a slight decrease of 0.16% in its primary vote. The Greens also contested the election and had a 1.73% increase in primary votes from the previous 2019 election. Other parties and candidates that contested Fadden at the 2022 election were One Nation, United Australia Party, Liberal Democrats and an independent candidate Stewart Brooker and each of them achieved less than 10% of the primary vote. [11]

Three of the candidates from the 2022 election (Labor, One Nation, and Brooker) re-contested the by-election. The United Australia Party and Liberal Democrats were de-registered with the Australian Electoral Commission after the 2022 election and did not run in the by-election.

Previous by-election

The 2023 Fadden by-election was the second by-election in the 47th Parliament, following a by-election for the Melbourne seat of Aston, which was held on 1 April 2023 following the resignation of Alan Tudge. The upset loss of Aston was the first time in 103 years that a governing party won a federal seat from the opposition at a by-election (the last time before that being the 1920 Kalgoorlie by-election, where the Nationalist Party won the seat from Labor). [12]

Key dates

Key dates in relation to the by-election are: [13]

Candidates

The table below shows candidates according to the Australian Electoral Commission, listed in the order they appeared on the ballot. [14]

PartyCandidateBackground
  Labor Letitia Del Fabbro Griffith University nurse educator and candidate for Fadden at the 2022 federal election [15]
  Greens Scott TurnerScientist and candidate for McPherson at the 2022 federal election [16]
  Australian Democrats Chris SimpsonEngineer and candidate for the Senate at the 2022 federal election [17]
  One Nation Sandy RoachBusinesswoman and candidate for Fadden at the 2022 federal election [18]
  Indigenous-Aboriginal Marnie Laree DavisSocial worker [19]
Legalise Cannabis Suzette LuykenActivist, former businesswoman and candidate for Gaven at the 2020 state election [20]
  Sustainable Australia Quentin ByeTechnician and candidate for Myall Lakes at the 2019 New South Wales state election [16]
  Independent Kevin YoungBusinessman and founder of the unregistered Owners and Renters Party of Australia [14]
  Independent Belinda JonesJournalist and social media activist [16] [21]
  Independent Stewart BrookerStay-at-home father, former IT specialist, and candidate for Fadden at the 2022 federal election [16]
  Citizens Jan Pukallus Perennial candidate and Secretary of the Queensland Citizens Party [22]
  Liberal National Cameron Caldwell Gold Coast City Councillor [23]
  Federation James TaylerBusinessman and candidate for Moncrieff at the 2022 federal election [16]

Labor

Given that the seat is considered safe for the LNP, there was speculation that Labor may have chosen not to endorse a candidate for the by-election. Local branches urged the party to contest anyway. [24]

On 29 May, Labor announced it would contest the by-election, despite stating that it would be unlikely for them to win. [25] On 2 June, it was confirmed that Griffith University nurse educator Letitia Del Fabbro, who stood as Labor's candidate for the seat at the 2022 federal election, had been endorsed to stand as Labor's candidate for the by-election. [26]

Liberal National

On 8 May it was reported that Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell and Fadden Liberal National Party branch president Fran Ward had both sought preselection. [27]

On 28 May it was confirmed that five candidates were seeking Liberal National preselection. Alongside Caldwell and Ward, the shortlist included Craig Hobart, wealth manager Owen Caterer, and Order of Australia recipient and disability advocate Dinesh Palipana. [28]

Other speculated candidates included former senator and current Sky News host Amanda Stoker, [29] and Queensland state MP for Bonney Sam O'Connor. [30]

Caldwell won preselection on 3 June 2023. [31] [32]

PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Liberal National Cameron Caldwell
Liberal National Dinesh Palipana
Liberal National Fran Ward
Liberal National Owen Caterer
Liberal National Craig Hobart
Final ballot result
Liberal National Cameron Caldwell 8861.11
Liberal National Dinesh Palipana 4638.89
Total formal votes153100.0

Greens

On 18 June 2023, the Gold Coast branch of the Greens announced Scott Turner as their Fadden candidate. [33]

One Nation

One Nation ran Sandy Roach, their candidate from 2022. [34] [35]

Others

The Australian Citizens Party preselected Jan Pukallus as their candidate at the by-election. Stewart Brooker, who ran for Fadden as an independent at the 2022 federal election, will run again. A second independent, Belinda Jones, has also announced that she will run. On 13 June Legalise Cannabis Australia announced Suzette Luyken as the party's candidate. [36]

Campaign

The Liberal Party campaigned on the rising cost of living, opposing the Indigenous Voice to Parliament [37] [38] and the unpopularity of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Labor campaigned hard on the Robodebt scheme. [39]

Results

2023 Fadden by-election  [3]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Liberal National Cameron Caldwell 43,55449.08+4.46
Labor Letitia Del Fabbro19,58022.06–0.29
One Nation Sandy Roach7,8968.90+0.22
Legalise Cannabis Suzette Luyken6,4247.24+7.24
Greens Scott Turner5,4776.17–4.56
Independent Belinda Jones9311.05+1.05
Indigenous-Aboriginal Marnie Laree Davis8951.01+1.01
Independent Stewart Brooker8050.91–3.26
Sustainable Australia Quentin Bye7790.88+0.88
Independent Kevin Young6410.72+0.72
Australian Federation James Tayler6070.68+0.68
Australian Democrats Chris Simpson5890.66+0.66
Australian Citizens Jan Pukallus5700.64+0.64
Total formal votes88,74893.20−2.49
Informal votes6,4736.80+2.49
Turnout 95,22172.54−14.00
Two-party-preferred result
Liberal National Cameron Caldwell 56,22463.35+2.72
Labor Letitia Del Fabbro32,52436.65–2.72
Liberal National hold Swing +2.72

See also

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References

  1. ↑ Black, Jessica. "Liberal MP Stuart Robert, who claimed 'absolute responsibility' for Robodebt's implementation, to retire from politics". ABC News.
  2. ↑ "Fadden by-election". aph.gov.au. 18 May 2023.
  3. 1 2 "Fadden, QLD". Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 1 August 2023.
  4. ↑ Nicholas McElroy (15 July 2023). "LNP candidate Cameron Caldwell claims victory in Fadden by-election on the Gold Coast". ABC News.
  5. ↑ Smee, Ben (17 April 2019). "Fadden: How one of the safest Coalition seats in Australia is being fought over". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 6 May 2023.
  6. ↑ "Fadden - Queensland". Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 6 May 2023.
  7. ↑ "The Hon Stuart Robert MP". Australian Government. Retrieved 6 May 2023.
  8. ↑ https://amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jun/23/infosys-paid-16m-to-lobbying-firm-which-stuart-robert-allegedly-advised
  9. ↑ https://amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/21/stuart-robert-had-multiple-notifications-about-excess-data-costs-he-charged-to-taxpayers
  10. ↑ https://amp.abc.net.au/article/102034796
  11. ↑ Fadden, QLD, 2022 Tally Room, Australian Electoral Commission.
  12. ↑ Coorey, Phillip (7 May 2023). "This is not Aston: Libs confident of holding Fadden". Australian Financial Review. Retrieved 19 May 2023.
  13. ↑ "By-election for Fadden". aph.gov.au. 22 May 2023.
  14. 1 2 "Candidates for the 2023 Fadden by-election". Australian Electoral Commission. 23 June 2023. Retrieved 23 June 2023.
  15. ↑ Osborne, Paul (2 June 2023). "Gold Coast councillor firms as LNP candidate for Fadden". The Standard. Retrieved 2 June 2023.
  16. 1 2 3 4 5 Green, Antony (June 2023). "Fadden By-election 2023 Results". ABC News. Retrieved 28 June 2023.
  17. ↑ Allison, Lyn (23 June 2023). "Contesting Fadden!". Australian Democrats . Archived from the original on 23 June 2023. Retrieved 23 June 2023.
  18. ↑ "Gold Coast city councillor Cameron Caldwell wins Liberal Party's preselection for Fadden in five-cornered contest". ABC. 3 June 2023. Retrieved 5 June 2023. Pauline Hanson's One Nation candidate, Sandy Roach, who received 8.68 per cent of the vote last year, will also be recontesting.
  19. ↑ Guenzler, Joseph (11 January 2023). "Indigenous-Aboriginal Party urge Queensland Premier to abandon lengthy prison terms for young people". National Indigenous Times. Retrieved 23 June 2023.
  20. ↑ "Gaven - QLD Election 2020". ABC News. October 2020. Retrieved 23 June 2023.
  21. ↑ "2023 Fadden By-Election". Dr Kevin Bonham . 23 May 2023. Retrieved 31 May 2023.
  22. ↑ "Jan Pukallus". Citizensparty.org.au. Retrieved 25 May 2023.
  23. ↑ Colahan, Mackenzie (3 June 2023). "Gold Coast city councillor Cameron Caldwell wins Liberal Party's preselection for Fadden in five-cornered contest". ABC News.
  24. ↑ Coorey, Phillip (23 May 2023). "Labor hesitant to contest Fadden byelection". Australian Financial Review.
  25. ↑ "Fadden by-election: Labor to contest long-shot Qld seat vacated by Stuart Robert". The Courier Mail.
  26. ↑ "Gold Coast councillor firms as LNP candidate for Fadden". The Standard. Retrieved 2 June 2023.
  27. ↑ "Frontrunners to replace Stuart Robert revealed". Sky News. Retrieved 9 May 2023.
  28. ↑ "LNP fight for Fadden locked in". Gold Coast Bulletin. Retrieved 2 June 2023.
  29. ↑ "Speculation Amanda Stoker could 'put her hand up' for Stuart Robert's seat following resignation". Sky News. Retrieved 9 May 2023.
  30. ↑ "Fran Ward frontrunner as Liberals bid to replace outgoing Roberts". The Australian. Retrieved 9 May 2023.
  31. ↑ Colahan, Mackenzie (3 June 2023). "Gold Coast city councillor Cameron Caldwell wins Liberal Party's preselection for Fadden in five-cornered contest". ABC News. Retrieved 6 July 2023.
  32. ↑ "Councillor Cameron Caldwell chosen as LNP's Fadden candidate". The Australian.
  33. ↑ "Facebook post by the Gold Coast Greens". Facebook. Retrieved 17 June 2023.
  34. ↑ "Sandy Roach". Polipedia. Retrieved 4 June 2023.
  35. ↑ "Sandy Roach for Fadden". Facebook. Retrieved 4 June 2023.
  36. ↑ "Fadden by-election: Could the seat turn from safe LNP to a Labor - or independent - gain?". 6 News Australia . 23 May 2023. Retrieved 25 May 2023.
  37. ↑ "Fadden byelection a chance to protest the Voice: Dutton". Australian Financial Review. 27 June 2023. Retrieved 10 August 2023.
  38. ↑ Crowe, David (27 June 2023). "Dutton sets up Voice fight in Fadden byelection". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 10 August 2023.
  39. ↑ Karp, Paul (11 July 2023). "Labor targets Stuart Robert and his handling of robodebt in negative ads before Fadden byelection". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved 10 August 2023.
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