2024 Dunkley by-election

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2024 Dunkley by-election
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Division of Dunkley (Victoria) in the House of Representatives
Opinion polls
 First partySecond party
  Labor Placeholder.png Liberal Placeholder.png
Candidate Jodie Belyea Nathan Conroy
Party Labor Liberal
Popular vote37,41835,746
Percentage41.1%39.2%
SwingIncrease2.svg 0.8Increase2.svg6.7
TPP 52.7%47.3%
TPP swingDecrease2.svg 3.6Increase2.svg3.6
MP before election

Peta Murphy
Labor

Elected MP

Jodie Belyea
Labor

A by-election to elect the next member of the Australian House of Representatives in the electorate of Dunkley was held on 2 March 2024, following the death of sitting member Peta Murphy in December 2023. [1] [2] [3] Jodie Belyea of the Labor Party retained the seat for the party, winning 52.7% of the two-party preferred vote. [4]

Contents

It was the third federal by-election to have taken place since the first sitting of the 47th Parliament, as well as being the first federal by-election in a Labor seat since 2020 and the first federal by-election triggered by a member's death since 2015.

Background

The by-election was triggered by the death of sitting Labor member Peta Murphy, who died at 50 years old due to breast cancer. Murphy was first diagnosed with breast cancer when she was 37.

Murphy was elected as the member of Dunkley in 2019, after she unseated one-term incumbent Liberal MP Chris Crewther. At the 2022 federal election, Murphy was re-elected with an increased majority, turning it into a fairly safe seat.

The seat of Dunkley has been held by both Labor and the Liberals and has traditionally been a marginal seat. The seat has never been a safe or very safe seat and has only been a fairly safe seat (defined by the Australian Electoral Commission as a seat held by between 6 and 10 percent), twice: in 2004 (won by the Liberals with a margin of 9.38%) and in 2022 (won by Labor with a margin of 6.27%).

Since its creation in 1984, Dunkley has flipped between both major parties. From 1984 until 1990, when the Liberals gained the seat. The seat went back to Labor in 1993 before the Liberals regained it 1996 and held it until 2016.

While by-elections usually swing against the government, there are exceptions. At the 2023 by-election in the seat of Aston in eastern Melbourne, Labor won the seat from the Liberals, making it the first time the Government has won a seat from the Opposition at a federal by-election since 1920. However, at the 2023 by-election in the seat of Fadden on the Gold Coast, the Liberal National Party retained the seat with an increased majority.

Two-party-preferred vote in Dunkley, 1996–2022
Election 1996 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022
  Liberal 53.36%52.04%55.42%59.38%54.04%51.02%55.57%51.43%47.26%43.73%
  Labor 46.64%47.96%44.58%40.62%45.96%48.98%44.43%48.57%52.74%56.27%
GovernmentL/NPL/NPL/NPL/NPALPALPL/NPL/NPL/NPALP

Previous election results

Murphy won the 2022 federal election with a 3.53% two-party-preferred swing towards her, and a 1.71% increase in primary vote. On the other hand, the Liberal Party had a 7.38% decrease in its primary vote. The Greens also contested the election and had a 1.95% increase in primary votes from the previous 2019 election.

Other parties and candidates that contested Dunkley at the 2022 election were United Australian Party, One Nation, Liberal Democratic Party, Animal Justice Party, Australian Federation Party and an independent candidate Darren Bergwerf, with each of them achieving less than 10% of the primary vote. [5]

Out of the Dunkley candidates in the 2022 election, only Bergwerf contested this by-election.

Key dates

Key dates in relation to the by-election are: [6]

Candidates

Signage at a polling place, Overport Primary School in Frankston Dunkley by-election, Overport Primary School.jpg
Signage at a polling place, Overport Primary School in Frankston
A polling place at Chisholm Institute in Frankston Dunkley by-election Chisholm TAFE Frankston March 2024 2.jpg
A polling place at Chisholm Institute in Frankston

Candidates are listed in the order they appeared on the ballot. [7]

PartyCandidateBackground
  Liberal Nathan ConroyMayor of Frankston [8]
  Animal Justice Bronwyn CurrieBusinesswoman and nominee for the Senate at the 2022 federal election [7] [9]
  Libertarian Chrysten AbrahamHuman resources specialist and nominee for Flinders at the 2022 federal election [10] [11]
  Victorian Socialists Reem YunisTeacher and activist [12]
  Independent Darren Bergwerf Sovereign citizen activist, conspiracy theorist and candidate for Dunkley at the 2022 federal election [13] [14]
  Greens Alex BreskinSoftware engineer and nominee for Isaacs at the 2022 federal election [15] [16]
  Australian Democrats Heath McKenzieLandscaper and horticulturist; also endorsed by the Fusion Party [17] [18]
  Labor Jodie Belyea Non-profit executive [19]

Labor

Rod Glover, Peta Murphy's husband, was asked by "senior figures and local branch members" to run as Labor's candidate. Additionally, it was speculated in the media that former Victorian premier Daniel Andrews was a possible contender, however neither of these eventuated. [20] [21] On 11 January 2024, Jodie Belyea was announced as Labor's candidate. [22]

Liberal

Three candidates ran for Liberal Party preselection − Frankston mayor and councillor Nathan Conroy, former Victorian MP Donna Hope and former Liberal candidate Bec Buchanan. A fourth candidate, David Burgess, withdrew from the race. [23] Conroy won preselection on 14 January 2024. [24]

PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Liberal Nathan Conroy8957.79
Liberal Donna Hope 4025.97
Liberal Bec Buchanan2516.23
Total formal votes154100.0

Opinion polling

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN IND LBT AJP DEM VS OTH ALP LIB
2 March 2024By-election41.0%38.9%6.5%4.9%2.7%2.9%1.4%1.8%N/A52.7%47.3%
15–22 February 2024YouGov [25] 394± 6.1%33%40%9%7%3%2%3%3%N/A49%51%
5–6 February 2024 uComms [lower-alpha 1] 626± 3.9%40.1%39.3%8.2%N/A1.6%N/AN/AN/A10.8%52%48%
21 May 2022 Election 40.2%32.5%10.3%3.9%2.5%2.1%N/AN/A14.8%56.3%43.7%

Advocacy

The by-election saw conservative activist group Advance unsuccessfully spend nearly $300,000 to unseat Labor, with its advertising described as 'Trumpian' and a 'fear campaign' by Labor MP Paul Edbrooke. [26] [27] [28] [29]

Results

2024 Dunkley by-election [30] [31]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Labor Jodie Belyea 37,41841.07+0.84
Liberal Nathan Conroy35,74639.23+6.73
Greens Alex Breskin5,7986.36−3.98
Independent Darren Bergwerf4,3154.74+0.87
Animal Justice Bronwyn Currie2,8183.09+0.99
Libertarian Chrysten Abraham2,2462.47−0.04 [lower-alpha 2]
Victorian Socialists Reem Yunis1,5291.68+1.68
Democrats Heath McKenzie1,2421.36+1.36
Total formal votes91,11295.86+0.59
Informal votes3,9304.14−0.59
Turnout 95,04283.79−6.27
Two-party-preferred result
Labor Jodie Belyea 48,01952.70−3.57
Liberal Nathan Conroy43,09347.30+3.57
Labor hold Swing −3.57

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Sponsored by the Australia Institute
  2. ↑ Compared to the primary vote of the Liberal Democrats in 2022

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References

  1. ↑ Crowe, David (18 January 2024). "Dunkley byelection called for Saturday March 2". The Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 18 January 2024. Retrieved 18 January 2024.
  2. ↑ "By-election to be held in Dunkley after tragic passing of Labor MP Peta Murphy". Sky News. 4 December 2023. Archived from the original on 4 December 2023. Retrieved 4 December 2023.
  3. ↑ "Anthony Albanese in tears after Labor MP Peta Murphy's shock death". News.com.au. 4 December 2023. Archived from the original on 4 December 2023. Retrieved 4 December 2023.
  4. ↑ "Dunkley, VIC". Australian Electoral Commission .
  5. ↑ Dunkley, VIC, 2022 Tally Room, Australian Electoral Commission.
  6. ↑ "2024 Dunkley by-election". aec.gov.au. Archived from the original on 14 February 2024. Retrieved 21 February 2024.
  7. 1 2 Green, Antony (9 February 2024). "Dunkley By-election 2024 Results". ABC News. Archived from the original on 6 February 2024. Retrieved 9 February 2024.
  8. ↑ "Nathan Conroy". vic.liberal.org.au. Archived from the original on 19 January 2024. Retrieved 6 February 2024.
  9. ↑ "Bronwyn Currie - #1 Senate Candidate". Animal Justice Party. 2022. Archived from the original on 31 August 2022. Retrieved 9 February 2024.
  10. ↑ "Chrysten Abraham". Libertarian Party of Australia. 2024. Archived from the original on 6 February 2024. Retrieved 6 February 2024.
  11. ↑ "Chrysten Abraham". 2022. Archived from the original on 6 February 2024. Retrieved 6 February 2024.
  12. ↑ "About Reem". Victorian Socialists. 6 February 2024. Archived from the original on 6 February 2024. Retrieved 6 February 2024.
  13. ↑ Green, Antony; Analyst, ABC Chief Election. "Dunkley By-election 2024 Results". abc.net.au. Archived from the original on 6 February 2024. Retrieved 6 February 2024.
  14. ↑ "Darren Bergwerf | Vote darren4dunkley | Vote The Major Parties Last | Frankston". Darren4Dunkley. Archived from the original on 6 February 2024. Retrieved 6 February 2024.
  15. ↑ "Alex Breskin: Your Greens Candidate for Dunkley". Australian Greens. 8 February 2024. Archived from the original on 8 February 2024. Retrieved 8 February 2024.
  16. ↑ "Breskin, Alex". Vote Climate One. 2022. Archived from the original on 8 February 2024. Retrieved 8 February 2024.
  17. ↑ "Heath McKenzie contests Dunkley". Australian Democrats. 8 February 2024. Archived from the original on 8 February 2024. Retrieved 8 February 2024.
  18. ↑ "Fusion Backs Heath McKenzie for Dunkley By-Election". Fusion Party. Archived from the original on 27 February 2024. Retrieved 27 February 2024.
  19. ↑ Evans, Jake (10 January 2024). "Labor names candidate for looming Dunkley, Victoria by-election". ABC News . Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Archived from the original on 10 January 2024. Retrieved 11 January 2024.
  20. ↑ "Late Labor MP's husband urged to run in key byelection for Albanese and Dutton". Sydney Morning Herald. 29 December 2023. Archived from the original on 14 January 2024. Retrieved 14 January 2024.
  21. ↑ "Dan Andrews for federal Parliament? Rumours fly as Dunkley reels from death of MP Peta Murphy". Crikey. 18 December 2023. Archived from the original on 14 January 2024. Retrieved 14 January 2024.
  22. ↑ "Jodie Belyea named candidate for Dunkley, Victoria by-election after death of Peta Murphy". ABC News. 10 January 2024. Archived from the original on 11 January 2024. Retrieved 11 January 2024.
  23. ↑ "Make-or-break moment for Dutton as Liberals select Dunkley challenger". Crikey. 12 January 2024. Archived from the original on 14 January 2024. Retrieved 14 January 2024.
  24. ↑ "FINAL VOTE". Twitter. Leonardo Puglisi. Archived from the original on 14 January 2024. Retrieved 14 January 2024.
  25. ↑ "Dunkley seat poll shows Liberals lead 80-20 in upcoming by-election | YouGov". au.yougov.com. Retrieved 27 February 2024.
  26. ↑ Butler, Josh (22 February 2024). "Rightwing political group Advance mounts 'unprecedented' campaign against Labor in Dunkley". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077. Archived from the original on 26 February 2024. Retrieved 27 February 2024.
  27. ↑ McIlroy, Tom; McCubbing, Gus (22 February 2024). "Voters carpet-bombed in the fight for Dunkley". Australian Financial Review. Archived from the original on 26 February 2024. Retrieved 27 February 2024.
  28. ↑ "Liberals distance themselves from right-wing group's 'rapists, murderers' scare campaign".
  29. ↑ "Albanese will be hoping for a win in the Dunkley by-election. But Advance is back as audacious as ever, fighting with fear and 'Trumpy' tropes - ABC News".
  30. ↑ "Dunkley, VIC". AEC Tally Room. Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 15 March 2024.
  31. ↑ "Dunkley By-election 2024 Results". ABC News. Retrieved 15 March 2024.
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