Electorate opinion polling and projections for the 2025 Australian federal election

Last updated

The 2025 Australian federal election was held on 3 May 2025 to elect 150 seats of the House of Representatives and 40 out of the 76 Senate seats. At the election, the Albanese government was elected to a second term of government in a landslide victory, substantially increasing its majority in the Parliament of Australia. [1] Various research and polling firms conducted opinion polling before the election in individual electorates across Australia, relating to voting intentions in the House of Representatives. Several firms also conducted MRP polls, which are projections based on national data, rather than polls in the relevant electorate. [2]

Contents

Australian Capital Territory

Bean

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
ALP LIB GRN IND ONP OTH ALP IND LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 41.1%23.0%9.5%26.4%——50.3%49.7%—
1 – 29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—41.9%30.2%15.2%12.8%——62%—38%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—41%31%14%——13%62%—38%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [6] [7] 10,217—38.1%29.1%15.7%11.9%4%1.3%59.5%—40.5%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [8] [9] 8,732—36%32.9%12.9%11%6.2%1%55.2%—44.8%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—38%33%21%——8%61%—39%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—40%32%18%——11%62%—38%
Feb – May 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [12] 4,040—41%30%17%——12%63%—37%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 41.7%29.7%14.8%8.2%2.7%2.9%63%—37%

Canberra

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
ALP GRN LIB IND ONP OTH ALP GRN
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 48.3%19.8%18.3%10.9%—2.7%69.5%30.5%
1 – 29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—43.3%25.7%19.7%8.6%—2.6%60.1%39.9%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—50%19%24%——7%68%32%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [6] [7] 10,217—39.9%25.1%21.3%9.9%2.6%1.2%59.8%40.2%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [8] [9] 8,732—41.4%24.6%21.4%8%3.7%0.8%64.3%35.7%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—48%26%19%——7%67%33%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—45%19%24%——12%66%34%
Feb – May 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [12] 4,040—44%26%23%——7%62%38%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 44.9%24.7%21.8%5.2%1.7%1.8%62.2%37.8%

Fenner

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 53.8%21.9%16.4%——7.9%72.1%27.9%
1 – 29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—51.1%27.7%16.8%——4.4%66.6%33.4%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—40%27%18%——15%61%39%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [6] [7] 10,217—40.5%28.7%18.5%5.6%4.6%2.1%61.1%38.9%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [8] [9] 8,732—42.2%30%15.1%6.2%5.3%1.1%59.8%40.2%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—37%31%16%——16%57%43%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—40%34%13%——13%56%44%
Feb – May 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [12] 4,040—45%29%19%——7%66%34%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 48.3%27.8%16.8%2.7%—4.4%65.7%34.3%

New South Wales

Banks

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LIB ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 39.1%36.4%11.9%3.7%2.0%6.9%47.6%52.4%
1 – 29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—36%34%10.3%7.5%2.7%9.4%49.6%50.4%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—42.2%32.2%10.7%6.2%4.8%3.9%52.5%47.5%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—44.4%29.9%10.5%6.3%6.7%2.1%54.8%45.2%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—49%32%7%——12%57%43%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—49%33%5%——14%58%42%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 45.2%35.3%8.8%2.9%1%6.9%53.2%46.8%

Barton

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 47.1%24.2%15.9%5.6%—7.2%66.0%34.0%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—38.9%32.3%13.5%8.1%3.9%3.2%56.3%43.7%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—38.5%33.8%13.2%6.8%5.8%1.9%55.4%44.6%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—40%33%14%——13%57%43%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—45%36%8%——11%56%44%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 50.4%26.2%12.5%4.8%—6.1%65.5%34.5%

Bennelong

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 35.1%45.3%11.8%2.3%—5.5%59.3%40.7%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—40.7%31%12.8%4.4%5.2%5.8%48.6%51.4%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—43.8%29.4%11.2%6.3%5.9%3.4%45.4%54.6%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—46%33%13%——8%46%54%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—41%36%11%——12%49%51%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 41.4%37.7%11.4%1.7%—7.8%51%49%

Berowra

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LIB ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 41.7%27.0%11.9%4.1%11.4%3.9%51.6%48.4%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—44.1%23.8%14.8%4.8%8.4%4%55.8%44.2%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—48.4%24%12.6%4.9%8.4%1.6%58.7%41.3%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—49%29%10%——13%58%42%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—48%28%11%——13%58%42%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 49.1%22.2%15.6%3.2%2.9%7%59.8%40.2%

Blaxland

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 46.0%19.6%7.9%3.5%18.8%4.2%71.8%28.1%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—39.1%30.5%12%10.1%3.8%4.5%56.5%43.5%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—39.1%29.9%14.2%8.1%5.8%2.9%57.7%42.3%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—43%35%10%——13%56%44%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—41%31%10%——18%56%44%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 55%27%6.4%5.4%—6.3%64.9%35.1%

Bradfield

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
LIB IND ALP GRN ONP OTH LIB IND
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 38.0%27.0%20.3%6.7%1.6%6.4%49.99%50.01%
1 – 29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—27.9%47.8%12.3%7.2%2.9%1.9%35.5%64.5%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—39.4%27.7%20.4%8.8%3.1%0.7%50.1%49.9%
3 Feb 2025Climate 200 [13] 1,047±3%40%—————48%52%
Mar – Dec 2024Climate 200 [14] ——43%———————
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—41.7%23.9%19.7%10.1%4.1%0.5%51.9%48.1%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—47%—16%6%—32%53%47%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—50%—16%6%—27%56%44%
Feb – May 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [12] 4,040—51%—22%11%—15%61%39%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 45.1%24%17.5%9.3%1.6%2.6%54.2%45.8%

Calare

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
NAT IND ALP ONP GRN OTH NAT IND IND
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 29.7%39.5% [a] 10.5%7.7%3.5%9.1%43.2%—56.8%
1 – 29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—35.6%35.3%11.3%10.2%4.1%3.5%46.9%—53.1%
17–24 Apr 2025YouGov [15] [16] —±6%25.1%38.9% [b] 8.2%13.9%5.1%8.8% [c] 43%—57%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—42.2%21%16%13.3%6.7%0.8%56.2%43.8%—
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—46.2%18.1%15.1%13.0%6.8%0.7%59.7%40.3%—
Between Mar–Dec 2024Climate 200 [14] ——33%————————
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—53%—23%—6%18%53%47%—
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—47%—20%—4%29%56%44%—
Feb – May 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [12] 4,040—46%—18%—8%28%57%43%—
23 Dec 2022 Andrew Gee resigns from the National Party to sit as an independent [17]
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 47.7%20.4%15.1%8.4%4.6%3.8%59.7%40.3%—

Chifley

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB ONP GRN IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 52.6%19.7%6.0%9.8%1.7%10.2%69.8%30.2%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—41.3%29.3%9.8%11.4%4.9%3.3%58.2%41.8%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—43.5%27.8%10.2%9.9%6.5%2%59.4%40.6%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—41%34%—9%—16%54%46%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—44%30%—13%—13%59%41%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 52.7%24.7%6.2%5.8%1.9%8.7%63.5%36.5%

Cook

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LIB ALP GRN
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 48.1%31.5%9.9%4.4%—6.1%57.2%42.8%—
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—49.4%25.1%10.1%8.2%4.2%2.9%60.2%39.8%—
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—52.5%23.9%8.4%8.2%5.7%1.4%62.9%37.1%—
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—55%25%6%——14%63%37%—
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—57%25%6%——12%64%36%—
13 Apr 2024 2024 by-election 62.7%—16.5%—5.7%15.2%71.3%—28.8%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 55.3%25%9.9%5.1%—4.5%62.4%37.6%—

Cowper

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
NAT IND ALP ONP GRN OTH NAT IND
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 37.9%29.4%11.8%6.4%4.2%10.3%52.5%47.5%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—35.6%29.8%15.3%11.1%7.5%0.7%48.4%51.6%
Late Feb 2025Climate 200 [13] 980±3%35%—————47%53%
Between Mar–Dec 2024Climate 200 [14] ——42%———————
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—37.1%25.1%16.8%12.8%7.2%1.1%50.9%49.1%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—42%—26%—5%26%52%48%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—38%—23%—11%28%47%53%
Feb – May 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [12] 4,040—37%—18%—9%36%48%52%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 39.5%26.3%14%8.1%5.9%6.3%52.3%47.7%

Cunningham

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 44.7%23.2%20.4%7.6%—4.1%67.5%32.5%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—37.2%27.3%19.7%7.3%5.1%3.3%60%40%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—37.5%29.4%17.8%7.6%5.8%1.8%58.4%41.6%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—44%28%16%——12%63%37%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—40%29%16%——14%60%40%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 40.1%25%21.7%5.1%—8.1%64.7%35.3%

Dobell

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 42.8%27.8%10.3%8.7%—10.4%59.4%40.6%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—35.6%34.7%10.9%11.8%4.5%2.7%52.1%47.9%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—34.6%34.7%9%13.4%6.4%2%50.7%49.3%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—40%38%7%——14%51%49%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—38%34%13%——15%51%49%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 42.9%33.7%8.6%7.5%—7.4%56.5%43.5%

Eden-Monaro

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 43.0%31.9%10.0%7.0%3.9%4.2%57.2%42.8%
17 – 24 Apr 2025YouGov [15] 268±6%42.2%26.0%10.9%7.0%10.6%3.3% [d] 61%39%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—32.6%35.8%10.8%9%7%4.6%50.7%49.3%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—30.4%37%9.8%10.6%8.9%3.3%48.4%51.6%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—39%37%7%——17%54%46%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—36%38%7%——19%53%47%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 42.6%33.0%9.2%4.3%2.0%8.9%58.2%41.8%

Farrer

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LIB ALP IND
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 43.4%15.1%4.9%6.6%20.0%10.0%56.2%—43.2%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—48.5%18.9%9.5%13.1%7.2%2.8%63.6%36.4%—
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—49.5%19.5%9%10.5%9.2%2.2%63.5%36.5%—
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—47%17%9%——27%65%35%—
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—51%19%7%——23%66%34%—
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 52.3%19%9.1%6.3%3.2%10.2%66.4%33.7%—

Fowler

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
ALP IND LIB GRN ONP OTH IND ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 37.5%33.5%12.3%6.8%4.1%5.8%52.7%47.3%—
1 – 29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—27.2%44.8%13.8%7.3%5.6%1.4%63%37%—
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—27%—21%9%—44%57%43%—
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—31.6%26.9%23.1%9.7%7.3%1.5%52.7%47.3%—
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—32.1%22%26.9%11.9%5.4%1.6%—55.8%44.2%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—22%—23%7%—47%66%34%—
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—26%—27%7%—40%61%—39%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 36.1%29.5%17.2%4.9%3.6%8.9%51.6%48.4%—

Gilmore

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN IND ONP OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 34.5%38.1%7.2%7.5%5.0%7.7%55.1%44.9%
17–24 Apr 2025YouGov [15] —±6%33.5%36.2%11.1%8.5%6.0%4.7% [e] ——
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—38.8%31.7%10.6%9.8%8%1.1%49.1%50.9%
17–20 Feb 2025uComms [f] [18] [19] [20] [21] 684———————47.2%52.8%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—39.6%29.3%9.5%12.1%8.3%1.3%47.2%52.8%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—45%32%6%——17%45%55%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—44%29%9%——18%44%56%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 42%36%10.2%4.2%4%3.6%50.2%49.8%

Grayndler

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
ALP GRN LIB IND ONP OTH ALP GRN
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 53.5%25.1%14.3%2.3%3.2%1.6%66.9%33.1%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—44.5%23.4%19.1%6.5%3.9%2.6%63%37%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—46.9%21.7%19.4%5.8%4.7%1.5%63.8%36.2%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—48%21%25%——6%66%34%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—46%26%20%——7%63%37%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 53.6%22%16%2.1%1.5%4.7%67.1%33%

Greenway

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 50.4%27.5%10.7%4.6%2.6%4.2%63.8%36.2%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—37.6%39.6%7%6.2%6.6%3%49.8%50.2%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—34.9%37%10.6%7.4%8.3%1.9%51.4%48.6%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—40%41%8%——11%52%48%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—42%37%8%——13%55%45%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 48.3%29.8%7.1%2.7%1.6%10.6%61.5%38.5%

Hughes

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP IND GRN ONP OTH LIB ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 36.5%39.0%—11.4%5.3%7.8%46.9%53.1%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—39.5%24.4%17.2%10.4%5.8%2.7%53.9%46.1%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—42.3%24.5%15.4%8.9%7.4%1.4%56.3%43.7%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—44%31%—10%—16%53%47%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—44%35%—8%—13%51%49%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 43.5%22.5%17.5%6.3%2.7%7.4%57%43%

Hume

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP IND ONP GRN OTH LIB ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 43.9%27.2%4.5%8.0%8.5%7.9%58.1%41.9%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—42.8%22.3%11.8%7.7%12.8%2.7%59.1%40.9%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—46.7%20.2%11.8%11.6%8.2%1.6%61.9%38.1%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—48%24%——5%23%60%40%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—44%27%——6%23%56%44%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 43.1%19.9%16.4%7.4%5%8.3%57.7%42.3%

Hunter

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
ALP NAT ONP GRN IND OTH ALP ONP NAT
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 43.5%18.2%16.1%7.4%—14.8%59.0%41.0%—
24 Apr 2025KJC Research [22] [23] 600———————45%—41%
17 – 24 Apr 2025YouGov [15] —±6%35.8%14.5%25.3%8.8%0.5%15.0% [g] ———
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—33.2%30.8%16.2%10.2%7.3%2.2%52.2%—47.8%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—30.6%33.5%15.3%8.7%9.7%2.2%49.1%—50.9%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—31%30%—9%—30%49%—51%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—36%31%—8%—25%51%—49%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 38.5%27.4%10%8.9%7.5%7.7%54%—46%

Kingsford Smith

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 50.8%26.1%13.6%5.9%3.6%—67.2%32.8%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—41.5%29.9%16%5.4%5.1%2%60.1%39.9%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—39.8%31.8%15.6%5.4%5.9%1.4%58.1%41.9%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—40%35%16%——9%57%43%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—41%33%17%——10%58%42%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 47.9%28.7%16.8%3.1%—3.5%64.5%35.5%

Lindsay

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LIB ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 39.7%31.1%9.6%6.9%1.1%10.6%52.8%47.2%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—43.2%28.8%10.3%9.6%4.8%3.2%55.4%44.6%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—43.3%28.5%9.5%11.9%5.1%1.7%56.4%43.6%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—48%29%7%——16%59%41%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—48%28%9%——15%58%42%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 46.7%31.7%8%5.9%—7.6%56.3%43.7%

Lyne

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
NAT ALP ONP GRN IND OTH NAT ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 36.2%19.8%8.4%6.4%15.5%13.7%59.8%40.2%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—41.1%20.9%14%8.3%12.9%2.8%58.9%41.1%
Late Feb 2025Climate 200 [13] 867±3%39%———————
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—44.7%20.2%12%7.9%12.5%2.7%61%39%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—40%22%—8%—30%62%38%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—39%20%—11%—30%62%38%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 43.5%21.5%7.9%7.9%10.5%8.8%63.8%36.2%

Macarthur

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB ONP GRN IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 48.2%23.1%7.8%12.8%—8.1%65.6%34.4%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—35%33.4%12.2%11.6%4.8%3%52.6%47.4%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—37.6%33.1%12.8%9.9%4.9%1.7%53.2%46.8%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—32%41%—12%—15%48%52%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—38%35%—15%—12%54%46%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 45.9%30.5%8%7.7%—7.9%58.5%41.5%

Mackellar

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
LIB IND ALP GRN ONP OTH IND LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 35.5%38.0%12.1%6.1%2.5%5.8%55.7%44.3%
5–7 Mar 2025Freshwater Strategy [h] [24] [25] 830—41%33%7%7%—12%LossWin
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—39.7%34%14.2%8.1%3.5%0.5%51.6%48.4%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—37.7%34.5%13.6%8.9%4.8%0.4%53.8%46.2%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—43%—13%3%—40%49%51%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—43%—11%7%—39%53%47%
5 Feb 2024uComms [i] [26] 602±3.85%35.3%30.4%13.2%5.8%—4.5%54%46%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 41.4%38.1%8.3%6.1%2.7%3.5%52.5%47.5%

Macquarie

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 42.6%31.6%12.5%8.7%—4.6%57.7%42.3%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—32.7%36.5%12.7%10.1%5.7%2.6%50.6%49.4%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—34.3%37.2%9.5%10.9%6.3%1.8%49.9%50.1%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—35%39%8%——18%51%49%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—30%37%19%——13%54%46%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 43%34.6%9.6%5.2%—7.7%57.8%42.2%

McMahon

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 45.5%26.8%9.1%8.8%9.8%—59.0%41.0%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—45.5%27.5%11.2%12.0%3.9%—60.8%39.2%
8 Apr 2025Compass Polling [27] [28] [29] 1,003±2.5%19%20%——41%———
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—40%31%10%——19%56%44%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—37.8%33.6%9.6%8.3%5.2%5.5%54%46%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—37.7%34.1%9.4%8.6%6.6%3.6%53.5%46.5%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—41%36%11%——12%55%45%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—45%35%8%——12%56%44%
Feb – May 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [12] 4,040—44%32%8%——17%60%40%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 48%28.3%5.8%5.4%—12.4%59.5%40.5%

Mitchell

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LIB ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 46.3%33.2%13.7%4.3%—2.5%53.8%46.2%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—50.1%23.9%12.8%5.3%3.6%4.3%60%40%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—53.3%23.5%10.8%4.9%5.9%1.6%62.1%37.9%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—56%25%10%——9%63%37%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—55%25%10%——10%63%37%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 52.6%25.5%11.8%3%—7.1%60.7%39.3%

New England

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
NAT ALP IND GRN ONP OTH NAT ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 52.2%20.3%3.7%7.9%10.0%5.9%67.1%32.9%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—43.8%18.2%9.6%9.8%12.7%5.9%61.2%38.8%
9–23 Apr 2025New England Times [30] 426±4%43.6%24.1%2.4%12.2%6.8%3.8% [j] 57.3%42.7%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—46%19.7%11%8.5%13.1%1.7%61.9%38.1%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—46.9%18.4%13.9%9%10.3%1.4%62.2%37.8%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—46%19%—8%—27%64%36%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—41%17%—5%—37%64%35%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 52.5%18.6%10.7%7.7%4.7%5.9%66.4%33.6%

Newcastle

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB GRN
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 45.3%19.1%22.2%5.4%0.8%7.2%65.8%—34.2%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—38.2%25.8%19.8%8.1%5.3%2.9%61.2%38.8%—
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—41.1%26.7%17.1%8.4%5.1%1.6%61.1%38.9%—
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—43%26%19%——11%63%37%—
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—41%28%15%——15%63%37%—
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 44.1%24.4%20.1%4.5%—6.9%68%32%—

Page

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
NAT ALP IND GRN ONP OTH NAT ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 44.7%22.0%1.3%15.1%5.7%11.2%59.3%40.7%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—41.9%20.7%14.5%9.7%10.7%2.5%58.2%41.8%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—43.1%18.1%16.2%10.2%10.1%2.4%59.4%40.6%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—44%22%—10%—24%58%42%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—42%21%—9%—28%58%42%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 45.6%18.7%13.1%8.5%5.4%8.7%60.7%39.3%

Parkes

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
NAT ALP ONP GRN IND OTH NAT ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 39.9%19.7%13.6%6.1%2.5%18.2%63.0%37.0%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—46.5%18.5%16.2%7%6.4%5.3%64.3%35.7%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—47.5%19.4%15.3%7.1%7.3%3.5%64.3%35.7%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—43%19%—5%—33%67%33%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—43%18%—5%—33%67%33%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 49.3%20.2%7.5%4.7%2.5%15.8%67.8%32.2%

Parramatta

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 47.8%30.7%12.1%2.7%2.6%4.1%62.5%37.5%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—35.837.3%12.6%5.1%5.8%3.5%52.6%47.4%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—34%38.1%12.5%5.2%8.1%2.1%51.3%48.7%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—40%36%14%——10%52%48%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—40%40%9%——11%52%48%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 40.7%35%9%2.4%—13%54.6%45.4%

Paterson

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB ONP GRN IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 37.1%27.2%7.6%7.6%12.1%7.4%56.9%43.1%
17–24 Apr 2025YouGov [15] —±6%30.9%25.9%14.2%11.5%15.9%1.6% [k] ——
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—36%37.2%11.8%9.3%3.9%1.9%50.6%49.4%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—31.3%38.9%14.1%7.4%6.8%2.5%46.4%53.6%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—34%45%—14%—7%46%54%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—32%42%—9%—17%46%54%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 40.7%36.7%8.2%7.6%—6.9%53.3%46.7%

Reid

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN IND ONP OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 48.6%31.7%11.5%3.1%2.3%2.8%62.0%38.0%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—34.3%38.5%12.9%5.8%5.7%2.7%51.3%48.7%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—34.8%38.3%11.8%8%5.1%1.8%51.5%48.5%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—40%44%7%——9%50%50%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—38%39%16%——7%55%45%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 41.6%37.9%9.4%3.1%2%6%55.2%44.8%

Richmond

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP GRN NAT IND ONP OTH ALP NAT GRN
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 30.4%26.5%24.6%2.6%5.4%7.3%60.0%40.0%—
24 Apr 2025KJC Research [22] [23] 600———————34%—39%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—26.1%19.4%28.4%9.4%10.4%6.3%53.7%46.3%—
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—25.4%22.7%31.3%9.2%5.6%5.7%53.4%46.6%—
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—36%21%27%——17%60%40%—
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—31%18%22%——29%56%44%—
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 28.8%25.3%23.4%5.6%4.1%12.9%58.2%41.8%—

Riverina

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
NAT ALP ONP GRN IND OTH NAT ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 40.3%18.4%9.9%4.5%16.6%10.3%62.6%37.4%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGo (MRP)v [7] 10,217—42.6%20.9%16.8%8.6%6.2%4.9%60.8%39.2%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—44.6%21.6%13.4%8.5%7.2%4.7%60.8%39.2%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—40%23%—10%—26%58%42%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—45%26%—7%—22%59%41%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 46.6%20.5%8.2%6.4%—15.6%64.9%35.2%

Robertson

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 30.4%44.8%9.0%6.9%3.3%6.6%59.4%40.6%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—38.4%32.5%11.8%7.5%7.1%2.6%50.1%49.9%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—39.6%32.2%9.4%9.1%7.9%1.9%48.1%51.9%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—45%33%10%——12%47%53%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—43%33%11%——13%49%51%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 40%37.7%10%3.8%—8.5%52.3%47.7%

Shortland

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 44.6%26.2%11.3%9.1%4.5%3.3%61.5%38.5%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—34.6%34%12%8.8%7.4%3.2%53%47%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—33.2%35.8%8.9%10.8%8.3%3%50%50%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—41%41%7%——11%51%49%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—37%37%12%——15%53%47%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 40%32.1%9.9%6.4%2.6%9.1%55.8%44.2%

Sydney

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
ALP GRN LIB ONP IND OTH ALP GRN
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 55.2%21.6%17.6%3.4%—2.2%70.9%29.1%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—44.5%23.9%20.2%4.9%4.2%2.4%63.3%36.7%
17 – 18 Mar 2025uComms [i] [31] 860—41.1%18.8%16.0%——10.6% [l] 66%34%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—46.3%24.3%19.5%4.8%3.8%1.3%62.6%37.4%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—44%23%21%——12%63%37%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—52%18%23%——6%70%30%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 50.8%23%19.7%1.8%—4.7%66.7%33.3%

Warringah

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
IND LIB ALP GRN ONP OTH IND LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 39.7%31.7%14.6%8.8%1.7%3.5%61.2%38.8%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—44.3%28.1%15.4%8.4%3.2%0.6%63.5%36.5%
5–7 Mar 2025Freshwater Strategy [h] [24] [25] 830—33%41%7%7%—12%WinLoss
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—40.9%31.5%15.5%9.3%2.4%0.4%59.6%40.4%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—37%31.9%16.4%11%3.2%0.6%59.2%40.8%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909——36%17%7%—40%55%45%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976——37%17%10%—36%58%42%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 44.8%33.4%8.4%7.4%2.1%3.9%61%39%

Watson

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 48.0%15.2%8.9%3.2%16.1%8.6%66.5%43.5%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—39.8%29.7%12.6%10.7%3.8%3.4%57.3%42.7%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—42.1%28.1%13.9%7.4%5.4%3.1%60.2%39.8%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—41%38%11%——11%54%46%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—40%30%14%——17%58%42%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 51.9%26.6%9.6%4.9%—7.2%65.1%34.9%

Wentworth

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
LIB IND ALP GRN ONP OTH IND LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 36.3%36.5%13.4%10.2%2.4%1.2%58.3%41.7%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—30.4%32.7%20.6%11.5%4.9%—58.4%41.6%
18 Apr 2025 (released)Compass Polling [32] [33] [34] 627—47%28%15%10%————
9 Apr 2025 (released)uComms [m] [35] [36] 1,015—32.9%32.5%12.2%———58%42%
5–7 Mar 2025Freshwater Strategy [h] [24] [25] 830—41%33%7%7%—12%WinLoss
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—35%29.3%20.7%12%2.3%0.6%53.6%46.4%
12 Feb 2025uComms [m] [20] [21] [37] 1,068—35.0%32.6%14.7%10.8%————
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—34.4%28.1%20.7%13.1%3.2%0.6%55%45%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—38%—17%8%—37%54%46%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—40%—17%9%—33%55%45%
5 Feb 2024uComms [i] [26] 643±3.85%35.5%32.1%13.1%10%—2.9%57%43.0%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 40.5%35.8%10.9%8.3%1%3.6%54.2%45.8%

Werriwa

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 40.8%30.8%11.1%4.0%2.6%9.6%56.8%43.2%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—31.8%26.5%10.3%10.6%3.2%17.6%53.3%46.7%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—30.7%36.2%11.1%9%4.6%8.5%49.4%50.6%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—32.7%37.6%11%9.1%4.4%5.2%49.4%50.6%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—37%38%8%——17%51%49%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—39%35%7%——19%54%46%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 39.9%30.7%6.7%5.1%—17.7%55.8%44.2%

Whitlam

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 38.6%28.3%12.4%7.7%9.7%3.3%56.2%43.8%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—39.3%26.5%12.5%8.8%6.8%6.2%59.2%40.8%
6 Apr 2025Ben Britton disendorsed as Liberal candidate and replaced by Nathaniel Smith [38]
3 Apr 2025 Nationals candidate Katrina Hodgkinson withdraws and endorses the Liberals [39]
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—35%33.2%11.4%11.3%5.5%3.6%52.9%47.1%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—33.8%35%10.2%12.2%5.8%2.9%50.6%49.4%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—37%33%12%——17%55%45%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—36%34%15%——16%54%46%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 45%28.2%10.8%6.9%—9.1%60.1%39.9%

Northern Territory

Lingiari

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP CLP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP CLP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 44.6%31.0%10.2%9.1%—5.1%58.1%41.9%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—40.9%27.2%12.2%13%—6.7%58%42%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—28%26%12%——35%49%51%
27 Feb - 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—35.2%32.1%14.2%9.9%6%2.5%54.6%45.4%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—37.5%28.7%14.3%10.3%6.6%2.7%57.2%42.8%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—33%38%9%——21%46%54%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—30%36%12%——22%47%53%
Feb – May 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [12] 4,040—30%33%8%——29%50%50%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 36.6%34.7%11.0%5.4%3.0%9.4%51.0%49.0%

Solomon

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP CLP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP CLP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 32.8%36.0%10.3%6.7%13.6%0.6%51.3%48.7%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—36.6%25.9%20%8%2.2%7.4%59.7%40.3%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—45%27%12%——16%61%39%
27 Feb - 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—34.2%29.9%15.1%7.6%5.1%8.1%55.7%44.3%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—32.3%32.8%15.6%8.9%4.8%5.6%53%47%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—45%29%14%——12%61%39%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—46%26%13%——25%62%38%
Feb – May 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [12] 4,040—38%28%14%——19%61%39%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 39.5%25%14.8%5.4%—15.4%59.4%40.6%

Queensland

Blair

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LNP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LNP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 36.6%27.2%10.3%9.7%—15.2%55.7%44.3%
24 Apr 2025KJC Research [22] [23] 600———————41%46%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—31.6%32.4%12.5%14.2%4.2%4%51.6%48.4%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—32.7%32.9%11.7%15.8%4.5%2.5%50.8%49.2%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—34%28%15%——23%56%44%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—34%30%16%——19%56%44%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 35%28.9%12.6%10%—13.5%55.2%44.8%

Bonner

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LNP ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 35.5%39.5%12.4%3.8%—8.8%45.0%55.0%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—41.7%27.3%15.6%8.6%5.2%1.6%53.6%46.4%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—43.8%28.3%14.4%7.3%5.4%0.9%54.4%45.6%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—47%32%12%——9%55%45%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—46%27%17%——10%55%45%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 44.8%29.6%16.8%5.6%—3.3%53.4%46.6%

Bowman

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LNP ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 39.6%31.7%11.8%7.1%3.1%6.7%52.4%47.6%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—42.1%26%12.4%11%4.9%3.5%55.8%44.2%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—45.5%25.1%10.8%10.7%6.1%1.9%58.5%41.5%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—52%30%11%——8%59%41%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—44%27%13%——16%57%43%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 42.4%29.2%13%7.7%—7.6%55.5%44.5%

Brisbane

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP IND OTH GRN LNP ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 34.3%32.1%25.9%2.5%—5.2%—41.0%59.0%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—24.7%32.3%23.3%7.6%—12.2%52.7%47.3%— [n]
Mid-Apr 2025DemosAU [o] [40] ——36%29%29%——————
17 Apr 2025 (released)JWS Research [p] [41] [42] c. 800————————49%51%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—45%21%28%——6%48%53%—
20 Mar 2025uComms [q] [43] [44] [45] 1,184—32.1%23.2%24.2%——20.5%52%48%—
—44%56%
16 Mar 2025 (released)Insightfully [r] [46] [47] [48] 600—36.4%29.5%18.1%—9.7%6.3%47.0%53.0%—
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—35.4%31.3%25%3.1%2.9%2.3%—44.9%55.1%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8.732—35.7%30%23.7%4.3%4.4%1.9%—46.3%53.7%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4.909—37%25%31%——7%55%45%—
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—39%22%29%——10%52%48%—
Feb – May 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [12] 4,040—41%29%22%——8%50%50%—
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 37.7%27.3%27.2%2.2%—5.6%53.7%46.3%—

Capricornia

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP ONP GRN IND OTH LNP ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 36.6%31.9%15.5%6.2%—9.8%55.8%44.2%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—39.3%23.8%21.2%7.8%5.1%2.7%58.9%41.1%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—41.2%25.6%20.6%6.2%5.3%1.1%59.4%40.6%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—45%26%—5%—23%60%40%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—42%27%—7%—24%58%42%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 39.4%28.1%14.6%5.9%3.4%8.7%56.6%43.4%

Dawson

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP ONP GRN IND OTH LNP ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 41.7%26.2%10.4%7.0%—14.7%61.8%38.2%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—42.9%21.6%18.5%8.4%4.6%3.9%61.1%38.9%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—45.3%23.6%18.3%6.9%3.8%2.2%61.9%38.1%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—52%24%—8%—16%64%36%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—45%26%—8%—21%60%40%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 43.3%24.5%13.3%7.2%—11.7%60.4%39.6%

Dickson

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LNP ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 34.7%33.6%7.6%4.3%12.2%7.7%44.0%56.0%
17–24 Apr 2025YouGov [15] [49] 253±6%40.3%24.2%7.6%5.4%16.5%6.0% [s] 55%45%
10 Apr 2025 (released)Freshwater Strategy [t] [50] ————————57%43%
10 Apr 2025 (released)uComms [m] [50] ————————48.3%51.7%
9–10 Apr 2025uComms [u] [50] 854—37.6%24.2%10.9%—12.0%4.6%48%52%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—39.7%28.8%12.7%8.6%7.8%2.4%52.5%47.5%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—41.3%28.2%12.3%8.8%8.2%1.2%53.9%46.1%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—48%33%6%——12%56%44%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—42%30%9%——19%55%45%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 42.1%31.7%13%5.4%3.9%4%51.7%48.3%

Fadden

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LNP ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 41.0%27.4%9.3%8.0%2.8%11.5%56.9%43.1%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—42.7%23.2%10.8%14.3%5.7%3.3%58.4%41.6%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—47.2%21.8%10.6%11.5%6.6%2.2%61.1%38.9%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—45%25%10%——19%59%41%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—43%25%11%——22%58%42%
15 Jul 2023 2023 by-election 49.1%22.1%6.2%8.9%2.7%11.1%63.4%36.7%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 44.6%22.4%10.7%8.7%4.2%9.5%60.6%39.4%

Fairfax

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LNP ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 37.9%24.9%10.2%7.4%13.4%6.2%53.2%46.8%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—41.2%22.2%12.3%12.9%7.7%3.7%57.4%42.6%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—45.3%21.2%12.8%11.2%7.3%2.2%59.8%40.2%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—45%22%9%——24%61%39%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—42%24%9%——25%58%42%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 44.9%21.9%13.4%6.6%2.1%11.2%59%41.1%

Fisher

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LNP ALP IND
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 37.2%22.3%9.6%6.1%16.3%8.5%56.0%44.0%—
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—41.6%21.2%13.1%14.4%6.4%3.3%58.2%41.8%—
Late Feb 2025Climate 200 [13] —±3%43%—————Win—Loss
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—45.2%23.3%12%12%5.7%1.9%59.2%40.8%—
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—49%25%8%——17%62%38%—
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—44%25%11%——20%59%41%—
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 44.3%23.3%13.8%9.3%—9.3%58.7%41.3%—

Flynn

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP ONP GRN IND OTH LNP ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 37.4%25.1%14.2%5.7%5.0%12.6%60.2%39.8%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—36.8%25.7%22.1%6.2%6.2%3.1%57%43%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—38.2%27.3%19.2%6.6%6.6%2.1%56.5%43.5%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—45%32%—5%—18%58%42%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—40%30%—9%—21%55%45%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 36.9%33.5%12.2%4.3%4.1%9%53.8%46.2%

Forde

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LNP ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 30.7%34.2%11.4%10.3%3.0%10.4%48.2%51.8%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—36.9%25.1%11.4%14.2%7.2%5.2%54.3%45.7%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—38.9%26%13.3%12%6.3%3.3%54.8%45.2%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—37%26%16%——21%53%47%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—35%30%15%——21%51%49%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 36.9%28%9.9%8%3.1%14.1%54.2%45.8%

Griffith

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
GRN LNP ALP ONP IND OTH GRN LNP ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 31.6%26.6%34.5%2.5%—4.8%39.4%—60.6%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—38%25.6%27.2%5.5%—3.7%52%—48%
Mid-Apr 2025DemosAU [o] [40] ——29%36%29%——————
17 Apr 2025 (released)JWS Research [p] [41] [42] c. 800————————49%51%
47%53%—
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—35%31%25%——9%59%41%—
16 Mar 2025 (released)Insightfully [r] [46] [47] [48] 600—31.3%38.6%22.6%—1.5%5.9%———
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—30.5%29.8%32.5%4%1.8%1.4%45.2%—54.8%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—30.7%29.3%31.9%3.5%3.6%1%47.1%—52.9%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—34%29%26%——10%59%41%—
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—38%31%20%——11%58%42%—
Feb – May 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [12] 4,040—29%30%30%——1259%41%—
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 34.6%30.7%28.9%3.3%—2.4%60.5%39.5%—

Groom

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
LNP ALP IND ONP GRN OTH LNP IND ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 41.0%16.6%17.1%9.6%5.6%10.1%55.7%44.3%—
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—43.6%19.3%12.1%14.9%8.4%1.7%61.2%—38.8%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—45.3%18.2%13.6%14.4%7.3%1.2%62.9%—37.1%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—46%24%——7%24%55%45%—
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—44%27%——5%24%53%47%—
Feb – May 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [12] 4,040—45%20%—7%—28%55%45%—
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 43.7%18.7%15.4%9.6%5.85%6.7%56.9%43.1%—

Herbert

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LNP ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 48.7%23.0%9.4%5.2%—13.7%63.4%36.6%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—45%23.6%10.3%9%6.8%5.2%58.6%41.4%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—45.2%21.1%9.8%11.8%7.8%4.3%60.7%39.3%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—49%23%9%——19%62%38%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—46%27%8%——19%58%42%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 47%21.6%8.2%5.3%4.3%13.7%61.8%38.2%

Hinkler

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP IND ONP GRN OTH LNP ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 38.0%31.2%2.9%13.3%7.3%7.3%56.3%43.7%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—41.9%22.9%11%15%7.2%2%58.9%41.1%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—43.2%20.2%15.8%13.4%6.1%1.4%60.7%39.3%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—49%29%——7%15%59%41%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—44%29%——6%20%57%43%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 42.1%23.3%13.1%8.7%5.5%7.3%60.1%39.9%

Kennedy

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
OTH LNP ALP GRN IND KAP LNP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 52.2%23.8%16.4%5.9%1.7%65.8%34.2%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—48%29%17%6%—62%38%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—46.5%27.5%15.6%7.8%2.6%65.2%34.8%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—42.2%33%14.3%7.7%2.9%60.7%39.3%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—45%27%19%8%—58%42%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—40%32%22%6%—60%40%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 46.%28.2%16.1%6.4%3.2%63.1%36.9%

Leichhardt

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LNP ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 27.3%36.5%9.3%8.0%1.8%14.8%44.0%56.0%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—37.1%26.1%12.5%11.8%5.3%7.1%53.3%46.7%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—37.5%27.5%12.2%13.5%5.6%3.6%53.5%46.5%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—41%30%9%——20%54%46%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—34%31%6%——29%52%48%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 36.7%27.6%10%7.4%—18.3%53.4%46.6%

Lilley

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LNP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LNP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 46.1%27.7%16.4%4.2%—5.6%64.5%35.5%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—38.4%30.8%16.4%6.6%5%2.8%57.9%42.1%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—36.8%32.6%15.2%7.5%6%1.9%55.7%44.3%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—44%34%17%——5%60%40%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—39%31%22%——8%61%39%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 41.8%29.8%17.1%4.1%—7.2%60.5%39.5%

Longman

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP ONP GRN IND OTH LNP ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 36.1%35.5%9.9%9.8%—8.7%50.1%49.9%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—38.3%27.6%13.3%9.5%4.6%6.7%54.4%45.6%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—39.9%26.6%14.6%8.6%6%4.4%56.3%43.7%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—42%31%—10%—16%53%47%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—40%32%—9%—18%53%47%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 38.2%31.5%8.3%7.2%—14.9%53.1%46.9%

Maranoa

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
LNP ALP ONP GRN IND OTH LNP ALP ONP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 53.2%16.0%12.3%5.2%—13.3%70.1%—29.9%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—48.6%14.8%24.8%5.9%3.5%2.4%67.7%—32.3%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—51.8%16.9%18.3%5.9%4.8%2.2%72%—28%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—54%14%—4%—29%73%27%—
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—52%14%—4%—30%72%28%—
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 56.3%15.3%11.9%4.9%—11.7%72.1%27.9%—

McPherson

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LNP ALP IND
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 35.9%23.4%8.4%4.4%13.7%14.2%54.4%45.6%—
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—41.5%23%13.4%12%5.6%4.5%56.8%43.2%—
Late Feb 2025Climate 200 [13] —±3%42%—————Win—Loss
Between Mar–Dec 2024Climate 200 [14] ——42%————————
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—44.9%22.8%14.1%10.3%5.3%2.7%58.4%41.6%—
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—48%27%7%——18%61%39%—
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—43%27%10%——20%58%42%—
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 43.6%22%15.4%7.2%—11.8%59.3%40.7%—

Moncrieff

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LNP ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 41.9%24.5%9.5%5.9%9.0%9.2%58.8%41.2%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—43.2%22.5%11.9%12.2%4.9%5.3%58.5%41.5%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—45.7%22.6%12.6%10.7%5.3%3.1%59.4%40.6%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—48%22%11%——18%61%39%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—44%27%9%——20%58%42%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 45.9%20.8%12.1%7.1%—14.1%61.2%38.8%

Moreton

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LNP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LNP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 42.3%25.7%21.7%2.8%—7.5%66.1%43.9%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—35.5%33.2%19.1%6.4%3.5%2.4%56.1%43.9%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—34.1%35.1%18.5%5.6%5.3%1.4%54.3%45.7%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—44%36%16%——5%59%41%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—39%35%17%——9%57%43%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 37.4%33.3%20.8%3.6%—4.9%59.1%40.9%

Oxley

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LNP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LNP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 52.8%21.1%12.4%5.5%1.4%5.8%69.2%30.8%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—39.9%30.5%14.3%9.3%3.8%2.2%57.7%42.3%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—38.1%31.5%14.2%9.1%5.7%1.5%56.2%43.8%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—40%29%17%——13%59%41%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—42%32%11%——14%57%43%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 45.9%28.7%14.3%5.8%—5.3%61.6%38.4%

Petrie

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LNP ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 37.9%36.4%11.8%6.7%—7.2%48.8%51.2%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—40.7%30%12.3%8.1%4.9%4.1%52.7%47.3%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—41.3%28.6%11.4%10%6.5%2.1%54.3%45.7%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—47%33%9%——11%55%45%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—47%31%11%——11%55%45%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 43.5%30%11.4%5.3%—9.8%54.4%45.6%

Rankin

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LNP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LNP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 49.4%19.8%10.9%6.6%—9.7%65.6%34.4%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—36.3%31.3%12.9%12.7%3.6%3.2%54.5%45.5%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—37%31.6%12.4%12%5%2.1%54.5%45.5%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—42%31%16%——11%59%41%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—40%31%9%——20%55%45%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 44%29%10.7%8%—8.4%59.1%40.9%

Ryan

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
LNP GRN ALP ONP IND OTH GRN LNP ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 34.6%29.0%28.2%2.3%—5.9%53.3%46.7%—
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—33.5%32.3%21.1%5%—8%52%48%—
Mid-Apr 2025DemosAU [o] [40] ——36%29%29%——————
17 Apr 2025 (released)JWS Research [p] [41] [42] c. 800—45%13%—————57%43%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—39%33%20%——8%53%47%—
16 Mar 2025 (released)Insightfully [r] [46] [47] [48] 600—39.6%27.4%21.9%—7.1%3.9%51.6%48.3%—
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—37%27.1%26.5%3%2.1%4.4%51.9%48.1%—
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—37.1%26.1%27.1%3.9%4.1%1.8%—47.6%52.4%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—37%33%21%——8%54%46%—
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—41%27%20%——12%49%51%—
Feb – May 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [12] 4,040—37%26%26%——11%53%47%—
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 38.5%30.2%22.3%2.3%—6.8%52.7%47.4%—

Wide Bay

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP ONP GRN IND OTH LNP ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 39.1%26.0%12.0%8.6%4.9%5.1%57.6%42.4%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—40.4%20.4%19.2%9%8.4%2.6%60.5%39.5%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—43.8%20.2%13.6%9.3%11.2%1.9%60.6%39.4%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—49%24%—7%—20%63%37%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—43%23%—10%—24%60%40%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 43.5%21.3%10.2%9.5%7.2%8.4%61.3%38.7%

Wright

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP ONP GRN IND OTH LNP ALP ONP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 34.1%25.4%16.3%9.5%—14.7%58.0%42.0%—
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—41%22%—8%—29%61%39%—
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—41.4%18.3%23.3%10.1%3.4%3.5%66.1%—33.9%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—46.3%20.7%18%9.6%3.6%1.8%63.2%36.8%—
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—46%21%—7%—26%64%36%—
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—42%19%—11%—28%62%38%—
21 May 2022 Election 43.2%21.4%14.3%11.4%—9.8%60.9%39.1%

South Australia

Adelaide

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 46.5%24.2%19.0%4.0%—6.3%69.1%30.9%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—41.3%26.6%19.2%5.2%—7.7%61.9%38.1%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—43%29%14%——14%62%38%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—38.1%31.3%18.3%5.8%4.1%2.4%58.1%41.9%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—33.7%32.8%19.9%5.7%6.4%1.6%55.7%44.3%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—46%32%14%——8%53%47%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—38%32%17%——13%59%41%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 40%32%20.1%3%—4.9%61.9%38.1%

Barker

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND NAT OTH LIB ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 48.3%22.5%8.2%8.2%5.8%1.7%5.3%63.0%37.0%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—44.8%21.4%7.8%11.5%8.2%—6.3%60.7%39.3%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—50%16%8%———26%67%33%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—47.3%22.6%7.2%13.5%8.4%—1.1%61.7%38.3%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—49.5%19.3%8%11.9%9.9%—1.4%64.1%35.9%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—47%15%5%———33%68%32%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—50%16%10%———23%67%33%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 53.2%20.9%7.4%6.6%4.8%2.4%4.7%66.6%33.4%

Boothby

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN IND ONP OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 42.6%32.5%17.1%—3.0%4.8%61.1%38.9%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—35%32.8%15.2%—6%11%51.9%48.1%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—38%38%14%——10%55%45%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—36.1%31.9%15.8%10%4.5%1.7%52.7%47.3%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—38%28.9%13.2%13.2%5.6%1.2%50.6%49.4%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—41%37%14%——8%53%47%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—39%36%17%——7%55%45%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 38%32.3%15.2%7.5%2%5%53.3%46.7%

Grey

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP IND GRN ONP OTH LIB ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 34.9%22.5%17.5%5.9%10.0%9.2%54.6%45.4%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—37.5%17.7%15.4%9.4%12.2%7.8%57.2%42.8%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—46%22%—8%—24%60%40%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—42.1%22%12.6%7.7%13.4%2.2%58.9%41.1%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—42.9%19.1%15.1%9.4%10.6%2.9%59.6%40.4%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—46%20%—8%—26%61%39%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—44%23%—8%—25%59%41%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 45.3%21.4%12.5%6.8%6.3%7.7%60.1%39.9%

Hindmarsh

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 48.1%23.1%13.6%5.0%1.6%8.6%66.3%33.7%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—41%27.3%15.1%7.1%3.7%5.9%60.4%39.6%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—41%34%14%——11%58%42%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—35.5%34%13.9%8.4%5.4%2.8%53.9%46.1%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—34.3%35.6%13.2%7.7%7%2.3%52.4%47.6%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—39%37%14%——10%53%47%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—41%37%10%——12%55%45%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 42.2%32.7%13.9%3.9%—7.3%59%41.1%

Kingston

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 53.0%18.6%13.5%6.2%—8.7%70.7%29.3%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—47.5%22.6%13%10.7%—6.2%64.2%35.8%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—44%28%12%——16%63%37%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—40.4%28.1%13%9.8%6.7%2.1%58.9%41.1%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—36.8%28.8%13%10.4%9.1%2%56.7%43.3%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—44%33%12%——11%60%40%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—44%29%12%——15%62%38%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 49.2%25.9%12.4%4.9%2.71%4.9%66.4%33.7%

Makin

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 47.8%22.5%12.4%6.7%—10.6%64.7%35.3%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—44.4%25.6%13.2%8.8%—7.9%61.5%38.5%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—42%34%11%——14%57%43%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—39%33.1%12%9.3%3.7%3%55.3%44.7%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—36.1%33.8%11.4%9.5%7.1%2%53.4%46.6%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—42%33%10%——15%57%43%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—39%34%15%——12%57%43%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 46.3%31.4%11.4%4.7%—6.1%60.8%39.2%

Mayo

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
OTH LIB ALP GRN ONP IND CA LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 35.4%23.6%21.4%13.6%6.0%—64.9%35.1%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—44.2%21.9%15%11.4%7.5%—69.7%30.3%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—37%35%19%9%——55%45%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—36.5%28.8%16.3%12.7%3.5%2.1%62.1%37.9%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—31.5%30.5%17.2%11.7%7.2%1.9%53.4%46.6%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—42%29%20%9%——59%41%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—37%35%20%9%——59%41%
Feb – May 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [12] 4,040—31%29%23%17%——60%40%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 39.4%27%18.1%11.8%4.1%—62.3%37.7%

Spence

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 44.3%18.7%14.5%9.5%2.5%10.5%65.3%34.7%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—38.5%21.1%11.9%16%5.8%6.6%59.9%40.1%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—37%22%12%——29%62%38%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—38%28.6%12.5%15.5%3%2.4%56.1%43.9%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—36.6%28.4%12.3%16.4%4.5%1.8%55.1%44.9%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—36%29%16%——19%59%41%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—35%26%12%——28%58%42%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 43.9%25.6%11.4%10.9%—8.4%62.9%37.1%

Sturt

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LIB ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 34.3%35.3%15.6%3.4%7.2%4.2%43.4%56.6%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—37.7%31.9%14%5.7%4.8%5.9%49.3%50.7%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—39%39%12%——10%45%55%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—40.3%29.5%15.2%6.4%5.5%3.1%51.5%48.5%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—42.7%28.6%14.7%5.2%7.2%1.6%59.6%40.4%
Between Mar – Dec 2024Climate 200 [14] ——36%———————
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—42%33%14%——11%50%50%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—41%30%11%——18%52%48%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 43.1%30.7%16.4%2.6%—7.2%50.5%49.6%

Tasmania

Bass

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN IND ONP OTH LIB ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 31.4%39.6%12.9%5.4%6.5%4.2%42.0%58.0%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—32.6%25.2%10.7%10.3%14.8%6.5%52.2%47.8%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—33%30%11%——25%47%53%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—36.2%26.6%13.3%11%9.9%3.1%51.6%48.4%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—36.8%27.8%12.3%9.9%11.2%11.9%52.1%47.9%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—44%27%12%——17%54%46%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—40%25%13%——22%52%48%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 39.7%28.6%11.1%5%4.7%10.8%51.4%48.6%

Braddon

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP IND GRN ONP OTH LIB ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 31.7%39.5%8.3%8.4%7.6%4.5%42.8%57.2%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—30.5%33%16.9%9.5%5%5.1%57%43%
17–24 Apr 2025YouGov [15] [51] 419±6%30.6%33.2%15.7%9.7%4.6%6.2% [v] ——
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—42%26%—10%—22%54%46%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—40.7%25.3%10.5%9.3%9.7%4.5%55.7%44.3%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—41.6%22.1%12.9%8.9%11.1%16.3%58.1%41.9%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—46%22%—7%—25%59%41%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—43%21%—10%—25%57%43%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 44.1%22.5%7.8%6.7%4.3%14.5%58%42%

Clark

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
IND ALP LIB GRN ONP OTH IND ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 48.9%20.0%13.7%13.2%4.2%—70.4%29.6%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—55.5%18.7%13.6%8.7%3.5%—71.9%28.1%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953——23%14%11%—51%67%33%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—43.5%21.2%16.5%14.4%4%0.3%64.8%35.2%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—40.1%22.8%17.9%15.4%3.3%0.4%56%44%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909——27%10%13%—51%68%32%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976——18%22%13%—47%72%28%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 45.5%18.8%15.9%13.5%2.6%3.8%70.8%29.2%

Franklin

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB IND
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 39.0%18.8%10.5%5.0%26.7%—57.8%—42.2%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—31.9%25.5%16.8%6.9%18.9%—58.6%41.4%—
16 Apr 2025 Greens candidate Owen Fitzgerald withdraws after discovering dual citizenship [52]
9–10 Apr 2025EMRS [53] [54] 430±4.71%38%19%13%—20% [w] ————
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—42%28%13%——17%64%36%—
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—33.6%29.2%18.1%6%6.5%6.7%57.1%42.9%—
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—36.1%30.7%14.5%8.2%6.4%4.1%56%44%—
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—41%31%18%——9%63%37%—
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—36%29%13%——22%61%39%—
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 36.7%26.7%17.4%2.9%—16.4%63.7%36.3%—

Lyons

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 26.2%43.1%10.9%6.7%3.2%5.2%61.6%38.4%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—27.8%33.4%13%4.4%9.3%12.1%47.7%52.3%
17–24 Apr 2025YouGov [15] [51] [55] 446±6%27.8%33.4%13.0%4.4%9.3%12.1% [x] 56%44%
10 Apr 2025 (released)uComms [f] [56] [57] 712—29.5%27.2%14.6%4.1%—5.8% [y] 50.9%49.1%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—37%31%11%——21%52%48%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—37.7%28%11.7%10%6.8%5.9%47.5%52.5%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—38.1%26.5%10.8%12.5%6.8%5.3%45.6%54.4%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—42%26%9%——24%46%54%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—41%25%9%——24%46%54%
Feb – May 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [12] 4,040—37%28%13%——23%50%50%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 37.2%29%11.4%5.4%—17%50.9%49.1%

Victoria

Aston

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LIB ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 37.7%37.3%11.5%3.4%4.1%6.0%46.6%53.4%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—39.6%29.8%11.4%6.5%6.8%5.8%52%48%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—42%32%13%——12%52%48%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—40.7%28.2%13.8%6.2%6.5%4.6%52.7%47.3%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—42.5%29%12.8%7%6.8%1.9%53.7%46.3%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—47%33%11%——9%54%46%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—47%30%11%——11%56%44%
1 Apr 2023 2023 by-election 39.1%40.9%10.1%—7.0%2.9%46.4%53.6%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 43.1%32.6%12.1%3.1%—9.2%52.8%47.2%

Ballarat

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 42.4%28.6%14.3%7.7%2.8%4.2%60.7%39.3%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—43.2%26%13.2%8.4%5.2%3.9%61.6%38.4%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—38%36%12%——14%54%46%
17–24 Apr 2025YouGov [15] 217±6%38.5%23.8%17.7%9.8%6.1%4.1%62%38%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—38.4%28.2%14.6%9.9%6.4%2.6%58.3%41.7%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—35%29.2%15.5%9.3%8.2%2.8%56.4%43.6%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—44%35%7%——13%56%44%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—37%33%17%——12%57%43%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 44.7%27.1%14.6%3.6%2.1%7.9%63%37%

Bendigo

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB NAT
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 33.6%10.5%11.3%4.9%1.1%38.6%51.4%—49.6%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—39.8%24.5%14.8%9.5%5.8%5.6%60.9%39.1%—
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—38%30%12%——20%56%44%—
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—36.5%28.5%13.5%10.1%9.5%2%57.1%42.9%—
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—34.3%30.1%13.2%10.5%9.3%2.6%54.8%45.2%—
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—40%34%12%——14%57%43%—
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—37%33%12%——18%55%45%—
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 43%26.6%14.1%5.5%4.3%6.5%62.1%37.9%—

Bruce

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 45.3%23.0%12.1%8.2%—12.4%64.6%35.4%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—37.9%29.6%11.1%10.6%—10.8%55.2%44.8%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—37%41%11%——11%51%49%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—34.1%34.5%12.8%9%4.3%5.4%52.4%47.6%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—34.1%35.2%11.9%8.9%5.4%4.6%51.7%48.3%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—39%38%10%——12%52%48%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—38%38%10%——14%51%49%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 41.5%30.3%9.7%4.8%—13.8%56.6%43.4%

Calwell

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB IND
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 30.5%15.7%8.3%3.8%35.9%5.8%55.1%—44.9%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—37.2%22.1%12%12%2.5%14.2%58.5%41.5%—
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—38%29%11%——21%57%43%—
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—34.6%28.6%14.5%12.6%3.7%6%55.4%44.6%—
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—37.7%27.2%15.1%11.2%3.8%5.1%57.9%42.1%—
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—40%31%12%——17%57%43%—
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—37%28%16%——19%58%42%—
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 44.9%23.7%9.7%7%—14.7%62.4%37.6%—

Casey

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN IND ONP OTH LIB ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 40.9%24.3%10.9%10.5%5.1%8.3%52.9%47.1%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—35.3%22%14%12%8.1%8.6%52.7%47.3%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—37%29%10%——24%51%49%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—35.2%22%13.7%15.5%9.1%4.6%52.6%47.4%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—39.2%22.7%14.9%12.5%7.6%3.2%54.2%45.8%
Between Mar – Dec 2024Climate 200 [14] ——38%———————
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—39%28%14%——19%51%49%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—38%28%16%——18%49%51%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 36.5%24.9%12.9%8.3%3.3%14.1%51.5%48.5%

Chisholm

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN IND ONP OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 38.7%37.3%12.5%5.9%1.9%3.7%55.7%44.3%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—32.6%35%16.4%4.8%5.6%5.6%53.1%46.9%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—32%47%12%——9%47%53%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—30.9%38.3%14.8%8.7%4.1%3.2%50.7%49.3%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—29.9%41.8%13.4%8.8%4%2.1%48%52%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—33%41%13%——12%50%50%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—36%43%9%——12%49%51%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 40.1%36.3%12.6%2.4%1.4%7.2%56.4%43.6%

Cooper

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP GRN LIB ONP IND OTH ALP GRN
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 42.0%25.2%15.1%5.3%—12.4%59.7%40.3%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—41.4%26%18%6.1%—8.5%60.2%39.8%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—45%21%20%——14%65%35%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—34.4%27.7%20.8%5.8%5.9%5.5%56%44%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—39.2%26.9%21.8%4.8%4.6%2.7%57.7%42.3%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—43%25%23%——9%62%38%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—40%29%20%——11%58%42%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 41.3%27.4%16.4%3%—12%58.7%41.3%

Corangamite

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 37.3%34.1%14.4%3.2%4.4%6.6%58.0%42.0%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—38.1%30.2%14.3%5.9%5%6.5%57.5%42.5%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—35%40%14%——11%53%47%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—35.5%34%15.9%6%5.3%3.3%54.9%45.1%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—34.2%35.7%13.4%7.5%6.6%2.6%52.4%47.6%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—34%38%10%——18%51%49%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—33%38%15%——14%53%47%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 38.2%34.1%15.2%2.5%—9.9%57.6%42.4%

Corio

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 42.8%24.9%15.9%9.9%3.6%2.9%63.2%36.8%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—38.2%25.4%17.8%9.7%3.2%5.7%60.2%39.8%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—42%26%14%——17%62%38%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—35.1%28.2%16%7.5%7.6%5.7%57.5%42.5%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—36.9%29.2%14.5%9.2%6.2%4.1%56.9%43.1%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—43%23%25%——9%57%43%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—40%29%9%——22%58%42%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 42.1%24.6%14.9%3.9%—14.5%62.8%37.2%

Deakin

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LIB ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 38.7%34.8%11.9%2.6%7.2%4.8%47.2%52.8%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—37.9%32.5%11.5%5.3%8.9%3.9%49.3%50.7%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—43%33%11%——13%52%48%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—38.3%29.3%15.7%4.9%8.1%3.6%50%50%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—40.5%30.3%13.8%5.8%8%1.7%51.5%48.5%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—45%33%10%——11%53%47%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—46%31%14%——9%53%47%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 41.5%32.8%13.9%2.3%1.3%8.3%50.2%49.8%

Dunkley

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN IND ONP OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 38.3%32.3%11.6%2.9%6.9%8.0%57.1%42.9%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—39.2%29.6%12.9%4%7.8%6.5%57.5%42.5%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—36%34%12%——19%54%46%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—32.9%32.7%13.6%8.2%7.4%5.2%53.6%46.4%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—35.1%32.1%11.9%6.5%10.1%4.2%53.6%46.4%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—37%37%10%——15%52%48%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—38%36%9%——18%53%47%
2 Mar 2024 2024 by-election 41.1%39.2%6.4%4.7%—8.6%52.7%47.3%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 40.2%32.5%10.3%3.9%2.8%10.3%56.3%43.7%

Flinders

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
LIB ALP IND GRN ONP OTH LIB ALP IND
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 41.2%22.3%22.1%6.4%5.3%2.7%52.3%—47.7%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—38.1%20.5%19.1%8.6%7.1%6.6%54.9%45.1%—
21 Apr 2025 Trumpet of Patriots candidate Jason Smart withdraws and endorses One Nation [58]
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—43%24%—8%—24%55%45%—
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—40.4%22.2%14.5%11.4%8.3%3.3%55.8%44.2%—
Late Feb 2025Climate 200 [13] —±3%38%—————51%—49%
Between Mar – Dec 2024Climate 200 [14] ——40%————————
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—43.2%21.6%15.3%10.2%7%2.8%57.7%42.3%—
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—48%25%—8%—19%58%42%—
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—46%26%—9%—19%56%44%—
Feb – May 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [12] 4,040—41%24%—10%—25%58%42%—
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 43.5%21.7%12.5%9.4%3.4%9.5%56.7%43.3%—

Fraser

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB GRN
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 42.6%16.9%25.3%4.8%—10.4%59.2%—40.8%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—41.1%20.8%17.8%8.2%—12%63.3%36.7%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—41%24%15%——19%65%35%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—38%27.2%19.8%5.9%4.3%4.8%60.6%39.4%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—39.2%27%19.7%5.5%5.6%3%61.3%38.7%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—37%28%23%——12%64%36%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—36%26%22%——16%64%36%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 42.1%24.7%18.5%2.9%—11.8%66.5%33.5%—

Gellibrand

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 46.6%26.2%17.0%6.0%—4.2%65.1%44.9%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—46.6%26%12.7%8.8%—5.9%62.3%37.7%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—40%31%17%——12%58%42%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—36.9%29.9%16.4%7.3%5.1%4.5%57.6%42.4%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—37.4%30.3%17.4%6.9%5%3%57.8%42.2%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—38%31%11%——20%55%45%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—42%34%13%——11%57%43%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 42.7%27%16.5%3%—10.7%61.5%38.5%

Gippsland

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
NAT ALP ONP GRN IND OTH NAT ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 52.5%21.3%14.4%8.5%—3.3%69.4%30.6%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—45.5%24.2%13.9%7%—9.4%61.5%38.5%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—38%16%—6%—40%71%29%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—48.7%21.5%12.5%9.8%4.9%2.4%62.4%37.6%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—49.2%20.8%14.6%7.8%6.4%1.2%64.1%35.9%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—45%14%—7%—34%74%26%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—48%13%—7%—33%76%24%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 54.1%19.2%9.4%8.5%—8.8%70.6%29.4%

Goldstein

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
LIB IND ALP GRN ONP OTH IND LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 43.4%30.7%13.7%7.2%1.8%3.2%49.9%50.1%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—29.4%47.5%12.3%7.2%2.9%0.8%63.5%36.5%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—37%—12%6%—45%51%49%
18–25 Mar 2025uComms [m] [59] [60] [61] 1,225—————3.9%—54%46%
12–13 Mar 2025JWS Research [p] [62] [63] [64] 800—44%24%21%5%—6%46%54%
5–7 Mar 2025Freshwater Strategy [h] [24] [25] 830—41%33%7%7%—12%LossWin
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—36.1%34.6%16.8%9.8%2.1%0.5%54.5%45.5%
12–25 Feb 2025uComms [59] 979———————52%48%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—36.8%32.6%17%9.7%3.1%0.7%54.3%45.7%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—44%—11%7%—37%52%48%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—49%—17%6%—29%47%53%
Feb–May 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [12] 4,040—38%—14%9%—38%53%47%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 40.4%34.5%11%7.8%1.3%5%52.9%47.1%

Gorton

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 43.0%29.2%10.8%6.3%—10.7%60.3%39.7%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—37.8%27.8%12.5%11.8%—10.2%56.2%43.8%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—42%29%16%——13%62%38%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—33.4%33.4%11.4%10.2%6.1%5.5%52.2%47.8%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—34.6%35.8%11.5%9.7%5.8%2.7%51.5%48.5%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—40%33%10%——17%57%43%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—41%34%9%——16%56%44%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 41.3%27.4%9%7.3%2.5%12.5%60.0%40.0%

Hawke

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN IND ONP OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 39.1%30.2%9.8%—9.7%11.2%57.6%42.4%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—36.4%29.8%11.5%—12.7%9.5%54.1%45.9%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—31%39%13%——18%50%50%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—30.2%31.1%11.7%10.5%12.3%4.2%51.9%48.1%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—30.8%32.2%11.8%9.1%12.6%3.5%51.2%48.8%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—31%36%8%——24%50%50%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—39%31%11%——18%57%43%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 36.7%26.3%8.9%7.9%5.6%14.5%57.6%42.4%

Holt

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 45.0%25.1%11.2%8.7%—10.0%64.0%36.0%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—38.1%30.2%12.2%12.1%—7.4%55.1%44.9%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—36%38%13%——13%52%48%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—33.6%32%13.4%11.5%5.1%4.4%53.3%46.7%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—35.8%31.1%12.4%10.8%5.7%4.3%54.4%45.6%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—35%37%14%——14%52%48%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—36%33%14%——17%55%45%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 40.9%29.6%8.5%4.8%3%13.2%57.1%42.9%

Hotham

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 48.8%25.7%14.9%4.7%—5.9%66.9%33.1%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—46.5%24.7%13.9%6.3%—8.6%63.6%36.4%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—43%33%14%——10%60%40%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—36.4%31.7%16.5%5.5%5.4%4.6%56.7%43.3%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—37.4%32.7%15%5.5%6.4%3%56.2%43.8%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—42%35%14%——8%59%41%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—43%36%12%——9%57%43%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 47%25.2%12.4%2.9%—12.4%64.3%35.8%

Indi

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
IND LIB ALP ONP NAT GRN OTH IND LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 43.7%30.7%8.4%7.2%—3.6%6.4%58.6%41.4%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—53.2%26.2%8.2%6.7%—4.5%1.2%66.1%33.9%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953——33%10%——4%53%59%41%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—42.5%32.5%11.5%6.8%—6.3%0.5%58.6%41.4%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—37.4%34.7%12.7%6.5%—7.9%0.7%56.2%43.8%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909——37%8%——3%52%61%39%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976——32%9%——5%54%65%35%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 40.7%30.5%8.6%5.3%3.8%3.6%7.6%58.9%41.1%

Isaacs

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 49.4%28.3%14.1%4.6%—3.6%64.3%35.7%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—42.7%27.9%14%7.3%—8.1%60%40%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—43%33%11%——13%58%42%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—36.5%31.6%14.5%6%6.2%5.2%56.3%43.7%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—37.7%33.1%13.1%7.1%6.1%2.9%55.3%44.7%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—43%38%11%——8%56%44%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—40%34%10%——15%55%45%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 40%31.9%12.9%3.2%—12.1%56.9%43.2%

Jagajaga

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN IND ONP OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 42.6%29.4%15.6%6.0%3.9%2.5%62.9%37.1%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—38.8%27.2%17.6%6.6%5.4%4.3%60.8%39.2%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—43%32%13%——12%61%39%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—37%30.2%16.9%7.7%4.8%3.4%58.2:%41.8%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—36.1%32%15.2%8%5.2%3.6%56.2%43.8%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—41%37%12%——10%56%44%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—40%35%16%——9%59%41%
Feb – May 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [12] 4,040—39%33%18%——10%61%39%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 40.9%29.2%16.7%3.1%2.3%7.9%62.4%37.7%

Kooyong

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
LIB IND ALP GRN ONP OTH IND LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 43.1%33.9%11.9%7.8%1.0%2.3%50.7%49.3%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—32.8%43.3%12.7%8.1%2.4%0.7%60.1%39.9%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—40%—12%9%—38%48%52%
12–13 March 2025JWS Research [p] [62] [63] [64] 800—40%32%11%9%—8%51%49%
5–7 Mar 2025Freshwater Strategy [h] [24] [25] 830—41%33%7%7%—12%LossWin
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—39%30.1%16.9%11.6%2.1%0.4%51.2%48.8%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—38.7%29.4%16.5%12.2%2.7%0.4%52.4%47.6%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—42%—11%9%—37%53%47%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—43%—12%4%—41%53%47%
Feb – May 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [12] 4,040—39%—10%7%—43%52%48%
5 Feb 2024uComms [i] [26] 647±3.9%36.8%32.5%12.1%6.8%—2%56%44%
Mid-Aug 2023KJC Research [65] ————————46.5%53.5%
24–25 Jul 2023uComms [i] [66] [67] 821±3.4%40.3%31.6%12.4%5.6%—2.9%51%49%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 42.7%40.3%6.9%6.3%0.7%3.1%52.9%47.1%

La Trobe

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LIB ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 39.1%32.1%12.9%7.7%—7.2%52.1%47.9%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—42.9%28.2%10.8%10.3%—7.8%56.3%43.7%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—45%26%11%——18%58%42%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—41.8%25.5%13.1%9.8%5.4%4.4%55.5%44.5%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—42.1%26.8%12.8%11.1%4.5%2.7%55.6%44.4%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—42%24%9%——25%60%40%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—45%24%7%——24%61%39%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 45.6%26.1%10.9%5%—12.5%58.7%41.3%

Lalor

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 43.6%26.1%15.3%7.0%2.1%5.9%63.2%36.8%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—40.2%26%13.6%9.7%2.6%8%59.5%40.5%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—35%33%12%——20%55%45%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—34.3%29.4%14.5%9.5%7%5.3%55.8%44.2%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—37.1%29.1%13.8%9.3%6.3%4.4%56.9%43.1%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—40%32%13%——14%58%42%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—42%31%13%——13%60%40%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 44.1%25%10.4%3.9%2.9%13.7%62.8%37.2%

Macnamara

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP GRN LIB IND ONP OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 36.1%25.5%32.5%1.8%2.8%1.3%61.8%38.2%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—31.1%26.7%27.4%4.7%5%5.1%58%42%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—35%20%32%——12%58%42%
16 Mar 2025 (released)Insightfully [r] [46] [47] [68] 600—25.9%27.9%37.6%—————
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—33.9%25.4%28.1%5.6%4.4%2.7%60%40%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—31.6%29.7%27.6%5.8%3.2%2.1%58.3%41.7%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—35%35%21%——9%58%42%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—36%32%22%——10%60%40%
13–20 Jun 2024RedBridge [69] 401±5.9%30%21%36%——13%55%45%
Feb – May 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [12] 4,040—33%24%34%——9%59%41%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 31.8%29.7%29%2%1.5%6.2%62.3%37.8%

Mallee

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
NAT ALP IND ONP GRN OTH NAT ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 49.7%19.1%—11.0%9.1%11.1%69.0%31.0%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—46.6%19%—16%7.8%10.5%64.6%35.4%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—44%19%——6%30%65%35%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—44.7%18.1%13.5%14.5%6.7%2.5%62.7%37.3%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—47.3%15.4%14.8%12.8%7.7%2.1%64.2%35.8%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—46%18%——6%30%67%33%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—45%16%——6%33%67%33%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 49.1%16.8%12.2%6.8%5.3%9.9%69%31%

Maribyrnong

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 41.4%30.5%21.2%6.9%——62.6%37.4%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—47.3%28.1%16.9%7.6%——63.5%36.5%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—43%28%17%——12%63%37%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—36.2%30.5%16.7%5%5.8%5.8%57.4%42.6%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—36.6%31.9%16.4%5.7%6.2%3.3%56.6%43.4%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—39%30%14%——18%58%42%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—44%33%13%——10%60%40%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 42.4%27.1%16.3%2.4%—11.9%62.5%37.6%

McEwen

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 37.3%32.5%11.1%6.6%—12.5%54.8%45.2%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—32.5%30%14.8%11.3%—11.4%53.2%46.8%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—34%36%13%——17%50%50%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—30.6%35%13.8%11.1%5.5%3.9%50.5%49.5%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—31.8%37.3%13.4%10.2%4.7%2.6%49.7%50.3%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—32%40%16%——13%49%51%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—34%39%13%——14%49%51%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 36.8%33.2%14.1%5.6%—10.2%53.3%46.7%

Melbourne

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
GRN ALP LIB IND ONP OTH GRN ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 39.5%31.3%19.8%4.9%2.5%2.0%47.0%53.0%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—43.1%28.2%15.6%6.4%4.2%2.5%56.1%43.9%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—43%22%21%——14%57%43%
16 Mar 2025 (released)Insightfully [r] [46] [47] [48] 600—50.1%19.2%21.6%——9.1%——
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—41.3%30.9%19.4%2.8%2.1%3.5%52.7%47.3%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—42.2%29.8%18.8%4%2.7%2.5%55%45%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—27%21%44%——7%55%45%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—44%22%22%——12%57%43%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 49.6%25%15.2%1.1%1%8.1%60.2%39.9%

Menzies

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LIB ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 40.6%34.7%11.0%2.0%6.4%5.3%48.9%51.1%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—36.3%30.5%12.7%5.1%5.6%9.7%49.7%50.3%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—47%33%12%——7%53%47%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—40.4%27.6%14%4.9%6.6%6.5%52.6%47.4%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—43.8%27.5%13.3%4.6%7.4%3.3%54.5%45.5%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—47%31%15%——6%53%47%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—46%33%12%——9%53%47%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 42.1%33.3%14.1%2.3%—8.2%50.7%49.3%

Monash

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP IND GRN ONP OTH LIB ALP IND
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 31.8%20.3%27.3%4.9%8.0%7.7%54.1%45.9%—
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—29.4%20.1%24.9%7.8%9.6%8.1%45.9%—54.1%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—32%20%—6%—42%48%—52%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—36.4%22.3%12.6%10.9%15.5%2.4%55.3%44.7%—
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—39.1%22.3%14.2%10.9%11.8%1.7%56%44%—
Between Mar–Dec 2024Climate 200 [14] ——26%————————
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—44%26%—8%—22%57%43%—
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—39%25%—9%—28%54%46%—
14 Nov 2023 Russell Broadbent resigns from the Liberal Party to sit as an independent [70]
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 37.8%25.6%10.7%9.9%7.5%8.5%52.9%47.1%—

Nicholls

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
NAT IND LIB ALP ONP GRN OTH NAT IND ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 46.3%——24.2%11.5%7.8%10.2%64.4%—35.6%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—53.1%——21%14%7.6%4.3%66.4%—33.6%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—42%——19%—6%33%55%45%—
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—41.9%22.7%—15.7%12.3%6.2%1.3%55.2%44.8%—
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—42.6%23.1%—14.4%12.2%6.4%1.2%55.4%44.6%—
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—44%——18%—5%33%53%47%—
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—44%——23%—5%28%54%46%—
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 26.1%25.5%18.1%11.5%6.5%3.2%9%53.8%46.2%—

Scullin

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 44.9%20.5%9.4%6.6%—18.6%64.3%35.7%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—41.7%20.8%14%11.3%—12.2%62.1%37.9%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—46%25%13%——17%65%35%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—36.4%28.8%13.4%9.9%4.1%7.4%56.4%43.6%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—35.8%29.7%14.8%9.2%5%5.6%56.1%43.9%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—44%31%13%——11%61%39%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—42%27%9%——22%59%41%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 46.3%21.7%10.9%6.5%—14.6%65.6%34.4%

Wannon

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
LIB IND ALP GRN ONP OTH LIB IND
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 43.6%31.4%10.6%3.2%4.2%7.0%53.3%46.7%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—29.7%46.1%12%4.5%5.3%2.4%38.1%61.9%
17–24 Apr 2025YouGov [15] [16] —±6%33.2%35.7%12.2%5.2%6.9%6.8% [z] 43%57%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—45%—22%7%—27%54%46%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—37.7%28.7%18.6%7.4%7.1%0.6%49.4%50.6%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—41.4%25.3%18%8%6.6%0.8%52.1%47.9%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—48%—24%6%—21%55%45%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—44%—24%7%—26%51%49%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 44.5%19.3%19.1%6.4%3.2%7.5%53.9%46.1%

Wills

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
ALP GRN LIB ONP IND OTH ALP GRN
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 35.6%35.4%12.9%3.5%—12.6%51.4%48.6%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—36.5%29.8%17.2%5.2%—11.2%55.5%44.5%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—47%22%22%——9%66%33%
16 Mar 2025 (released)Insightfully [r] [46] [47] [48] 600——33.1%————53.7%46.3%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—32.9%29.9%20.7%4.7%4.9%7%53.9%46.1%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—35%30.8%22.7%4.1%3.7%3.7%53.8%46.2%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—41%21%25%——12%62%38%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—44%22%22%——12%65%35%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 38.9%28.3%17.3%2.8%—12.8%58.6%41.4%

Western Australia

Brand

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 45.9%19.7%13.2%12.7%—8.5%66.9%33.1%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—46.9%20.4%16%10.7%—6%65.9%34.1%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—42%26%15%——17%62%38%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—43.8%25.7%12.2%9.5%4%4.9%61.4%38.6%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—39.1%26.7%12.6%11.5%6.1%4%58.3%41.7%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—48%30%9%——14%61%39%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—44%26%18%——12%64%36%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 50.2%22%11.4%5.4%—11%66.7%33.3%

Bullwinkel

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP NAT IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 32.0%24.3%11.2%8.6%15.8%—8.1%50.5%49.5%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—34.9%32.2%15.5%9%——8.3%54.1%45.9%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—33%40%12%———15%50%50%
17–24 Apr 2025YouGov——32%32%——8%—28%——
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—33.7%34.8%11.9%9.1%—6.8%3.6%52%48%
11–12 Feb 2025JWS Research [p] [20] [21] [71] c. 830—15%41%——22%————
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—30.5%37.2%12.2%9.1%—8.1%2.9%49.2%50.8%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—32%40%8%———20%47%53%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—34%38%11%———18%50%50%
21 Aug 2024 (released)Unnamed [aa] [72] 800—23%12%10%—20%10%———
31 May 2024Creation of the Division of Bullwinkel announced [73]

Burt

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 46.7%19.1%11.5%9.9%2.2%10.6%65.7%34.3%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—45.5%21.5%11.3%10.9%1.9%8.9%63.3%36.7%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—48%26%15%——10%64%36%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—39.5%28%12.1%11%4.6%4.8%57.9%42.1%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—37.2%28.9%13%10.9%5.5%4.5%56.4%43.6%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—47%32%12%——10%60%40%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—47%30%11%——12%60%40%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 51.6%23%9.8%4.9%—10.7%65.2%34.8%

Canning

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LIB ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 42.5%29.9%8.9%11.4%—7.3%56.6%43.4%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—36.6%32.7%13.1%10.6%—7%50.2%49.8%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—44%27%10%——19%56%44%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—39.2%32.2%9.1%8.5%6.9%4.1%51.6%48.4%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—41.6%25.6%9.9%9.2%10.7%3.1%55.9%44.1%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—41%24%7%——28%57%43%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—44%30%9%——17%55%45%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 43.8%32.8%8.1%4.5%1.8%9%53.6%46.4%

Cowan

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 46.6%24.2%10.8%5.1%3.5%9.8%63.6%36.4%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—39.7%25.2%12%10.3%5.5%7.2%59.4%40.6%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—44%33%15%——9%60%40%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—39.8%32.3%11.4%8.3%4.4%3.8%56.1%43.9%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—35.8%32.2%13.2%7.9%6.7%4.2%54.8%45.2%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—43%36%11%——11%57%43%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—43%35%10%——13%57%43%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 46.9%30.4%9.9%2.9%—10%60.8%39.2%

Curtin

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
LIB IND ALP GRN ONP OTH IND LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 40.3%32.2%14.8%7.8%2.6%2.3%53.3%46.7%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—34.5%33.8%16.4%10.2%4.2%1%55.7%44.3%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—38%—18%9%—34%53%47%
5–7 Mar 2025Freshwater Strategy [h] [24] [25] 830—41%33%7%7%—12%LossWin
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—38.2%28.4%18.5%11.8%2.4%0.7%51.2%48.8%
11–12 Feb 2025JWS Research [p] [20] [21] [71] c. 830—56%28%————35%65%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—37.4%29.4%17.6%12.4%2.7%0.5%53.4%46.6%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—39%—19%12%—31%49%51%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—46%—23%8%—22%47%53%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 41.3%29.5%14.0%10.4%1.3%3.7%51.3%48.7%

Durack

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP NAT GRN ONP IND OTH LIB ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 32.9%23.4%13.6%8.2%10.1%—11.8%60.2%39.9%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—39.3%28.7%—10.4%13.3%—8.3%54.9%45.1%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—43%23%—9%——24%58%42%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—40.9%27.4%—10.5%12.8%4.7%3.6%55.4%44.6%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—40.8%27.2%—11.8%12.4%4.9%2.9%55.2%44.8%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—44%21%—6%——28%62%38%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—46%23%—7%——23%61%39%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 34.3%29.2%10.2%9.5%6.9%—9.9%54.3%45.7%

Forrest

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LIB ALP IND
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 31.2%22.5%7.9%8.7%18.3%11.4%52.2%47.8%—
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—36.1%21.4%12.3%8.8%13.2%8.2%53.9%46.1%—
9–10 Apr 2025uComms [50] [74] c. 1,000—34%———20%—49%—51%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—42%26%9%——23%56%44%—
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—40.8%28.1%12.4%9.2%4.9%4.6%53.8%46.2%—
Late Feb 2025Climate 200 [13] —±3%37%—————51%—49%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—43.2%25.3%13%8.9%7%2.7%56.2%—43.8%
Between Mar–Dec 2024Climate 200 [14] ——38%————————
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—44%25%9%——22%58%42%—
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—45%25%14%——17%56%44%—
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 43.1%27.4%13.4%5.3%—10.7%54.3%45.7%—

Fremantle

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB IND
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 38.6%18.9%11.6%6.1%23.0%1.8%50.7%—49.3%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—37.6%22.1%16.9%7.3%10.2%5.8%62.2%37.8%—
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—49%24%13%——14%68%32%—
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—37%27.8%17.4%7%5.8%5%59.1%40.9%—
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—36.4%29.5%17.8%6.6%5.8%3.9%57.9%42.1%—
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—44%29%18%——9%65%35%—
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—45%27%17%——12%65%35%—
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 44%24.2%18.1%3.1%—10.6%66.9%33.1%—

Hasluck

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 48.3%22.1%12.5%7.4%—9.7%66.0%34.0%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—43%28.3%14.1%8%—6.6%60%40%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—41%35%13%——10%57%43%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—38.9%32.3%11.8%8.1%5.6%3.4%55.9%44.1%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—32.8%34.3%13.5%8.3%8.3%2.9%52.4%47.6%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—41%37%11%——11%55%45%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—43%35%10%——13%57%43%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 39.7%33.4%11%3.8%3.4%8.7%56.0%44.0%

Moore

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LIB ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 31.5%32.5%11.1%4.5%16.3%4.1%47.1%52.9%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—36.9%30.4%13.3%7.6%5%6.8%50.3%49.7%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—45%33%10%——12%54%46%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—39.5%29.7%12.4%6.5%7.4%4.6%51.7%48.3%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—44.5%26.4%13.1%6.4%6.7%2.9%55.8%44.2%
1 Jan 2025 Ian Goodenough resigns from the Liberal Party to sit as an independent [75]
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—43%31%11%——14%53%47%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—44%32%12%——12%53%47%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 41.8%32.7%14.3%3.4%—7.8%50.7%49.3%

O'Connor

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LIB ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 34.4%21.1%10.0%11.0%—23.5%63.3%36.7%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—38.2%24.9%13.6%11.2%—12%55.1%44.9%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—33%26%6%——35%54%46%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—41.2%24.3%10.1%15.9%4.3%4.2%57.8%42.2%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—43.9%23.3%12.1%11%6.1%3.6%58.3%41.7%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—42%31%8%——19%54%46%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—43%22%10%——25%60%40%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 44.8%26.6%10.6%7.1%—10.9%57%43%

Pearce

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 40.1%28.5%11.9%9.2%—10.3%56.4%43.6%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—37.3%28.7%13.9%11.8%—8.3%56%44%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—40%32%15%——13%58%42%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—34.4%33%12.3%10.9%4.5%5%52.9%47.1%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—32.7%34.8%12.7%10.9%5.4%3.5%51.1%48.9%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—36%34%15%——14%55%45%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—42%33%12%——13%57%43%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 42.8%29.9%11%4.5%—11.8%59%41%

Perth

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 43.1%26.1%24.5%6.3%——66.5%33.5%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—41.1%25.8%22.7%10.4%——62.6%37.4%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—45%28%12%——15%63%37%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—36.5%28.5%20.6%5.9%4.9%3.5%59.5%40.5%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—36.5%29.6%21%5.7%4.9%2.3%58.9%41.1%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—44%28%19%——9%65%35%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—42%29%18%——11%63%37%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 39.3%26.7%22.2%2.7%—9.2%64.8%35.2%

Swan

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 42.6%26.9%17.5%5.2%—7.8%64.0%36.0%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—39.4%28.8%16.3%8.4%—7.1%58.5%41.5%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—46%30%14%——10%63%37%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—36.2%32.6%15.9%6.1%4.9%4.2%55.9%44.1%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—33.6%33.7%16.2%7.1%6.2%3.2%53.9%46.1%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—41%32%14%——13%59%41%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—43%34%12%——10%59%41%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 39.1%32.1%14.9%2.5%—11.5%58.8%41.2%

Tangney

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 34.2%42.5%13.0%4.1%—6.2%57.0%43.0%
1–29 Apr 2025YouGov (MRP) [3] [4] 10,822—37%37.4%14.8%5.5%—5.3%53.5%46.5%
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [5] 9,953—39%41%10%——10%54%46%
24 Apr 2025KJC Research [22] [23] 600———————45%49%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [7] 10,217—38.6%36.2%12.1%4.6%5.1%3.4%52.1%47.9%
11–12 Feb 2025JWS Research [p] [20] [21] [71] c. 830—41%35%————44%56%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [9] 8,732—42.1%31.4%11.1%5.3%6.7%3.4%52.5%47.5%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] 4,909—40%38%14%——8%53%47%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] 5,976—45%38%10%——7%50%50%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 40%38.1%12%2.1%—7.9%52.4%47.6%

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ 23.7% for Andrew Gee and 15.8% for Kate Hook.
  2. ↑ Approximately 23% for Andrew Gee and 15% for Kate Hook.
  3. ↑ 2.1% for Trumpet of Patriots and 6.7% for all others.
  4. ↑ 2.8% for Trumpet of Patriots and 0.5% for all others.
  5. ↑ 0.2% for Trumpet of Patriots and 4.5% for all others.
  6. 1 2 Commissioned by the Australian Forest Products Association
  7. ↑ 0.5% for Trumpet of Patriots and 14.5% for all others.
  8. 1 2 3 4 5 6 The polling figures published by The Daily Telegraph include the two-candidate-preferred vote winner and the average primary vote results across the electorates of Curtin, Goldstein, Kooyong, Mackellar, Warringah and Wentworth. [24]
  9. 1 2 3 4 5 Commissioned by The Australia Institute.
  10. ↑ 2.1% for Trumpet of Patriots and 1.7% for Family First.
  11. ↑ 0.4% for Trumpet of Patriots and 1.2% for all others.
  12. ↑ 3.6% for Socialist Alliance and 7.0% for all others.
  13. 1 2 3 4 Commissioned by Climate 200
  14. ↑ The YouGov MRP projected Labor would win Brisbane, but the party was not shown in the projected two-candidate-preferred vote. [3] [4]
  15. 1 2 3 The polling figures published by The Courier-Mail are a combined primary vote average from the electorates of Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan. [40]
  16. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Commissioned by Australian Energy Producers
  17. ↑ Commissioned by Liberals against Nuclear
  18. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Commissioned by Advance
  19. ↑ 1.3% for Trumpet of Patriots and 4.7% for all others.
  20. ↑ Commissioned by the Liberal Party
  21. ↑ Commissioned by the Queensland Conservation Council
  22. ↑ 3.2% for Trumpet of Patriots and 3% for all others.
  23. ↑ 13% for Peter George, 7% for Brendan Blomeley, and 6% for "some other minor party". [53] [54]
  24. ↑ 1.8% for Trumpet of Patriots and 10.3% for all others.
  25. ↑ 5.8% for the Jacqui Lambie Network. [56] [57]
  26. ↑ 2.3% for Trumpet of Patriots and 4.5% for all others.
  27. ↑ Commissioned by the National Party

References

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  4. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 "Labor to win with an increased majority in YouGov's final MRP of the election". YouGov Australia. 1 May 2025. Archived from the original on 1 May 2025. Retrieved 1 May 2025.
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  18. ↑ "Voters in Gilmore say – support local forestry to keep economy strong and label timber with its country of origin". Australian Forest Products Association. 25 February 2025. Archived from the original on 6 April 2025. Retrieved 20 April 2025.
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