![]() 2025 Australian federal election |
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National results |
State and territory results |
Various research and polling firms conducted opinion polling before the 2025 Australian federal election in individual electorates across Australia, in relation to voting intentions in the House of Representatives. Several firms have also conducted MRP polls, which are projections based on national data, rather than polls in the relevant electorate. [1]
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2CP vote | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | IND | ONP | OTH | ALP | IND | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 41.1% | 23.0% | 9.5% | 26.4% | — | — | 50.3% | 49.7% | — | ||
1 – 29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 41.9% | 30.2% | 15.2% | 12.8% | — | — | 62% | — | 38% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 41% | 31% | 14% | — | — | 13% | 62% | — | 38% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [5] [6] | 10,217 | — | 38.1% | 29.1% | 15.7% | 11.9% | 4% | 1.3% | 59.5% | — | 40.5% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [7] [8] | 8,732 | — | 36% | 32.9% | 12.9% | 11% | 6.2% | 1% | 55.2% | — | 44.8% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 38% | 33% | 21% | — | — | 8% | 61% | — | 39% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 40% | 32% | 18% | — | — | 11% | 62% | — | 38% |
Feb – May 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] | 4,040 | — | 41% | 30% | 17% | — | — | 12% | 63% | — | 37% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 41.7% | 29.7% | 14.8% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 63% | — | 37% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2CP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | GRN | LIB | IND | ONP | OTH | ALP | GRN | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 48.3% | 19.8% | 18.3% | 10.9% | — | 2.7% | 69.5% | 30.5% | ||
1 – 29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 43.3% | 25.7% | 19.7% | 8.6% | — | 2.6% | 60.1% | 39.9% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 50% | 19% | 24% | — | — | 7% | 68% | 32% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [5] [6] | 10,217 | — | 39.9% | 25.1% | 21.3% | 9.9% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 59.8% | 40.2% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [7] [8] | 8,732 | — | 41.4% | 24.6% | 21.4% | 8% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 64.3% | 35.7% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 48% | 26% | 19% | — | — | 7% | 67% | 33% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 45% | 19% | 24% | — | — | 12% | 66% | 34% |
Feb – May 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] | 4,040 | — | 44% | 26% | 23% | — | — | 7% | 62% | 38% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 44.9% | 24.7% | 21.8% | 5.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 62.2% | 37.8% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 53.8% | 21.9% | 16.4% | — | — | 7.9% | 72.1% | 27.9% | ||
1 – 29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 51.1% | 27.7% | 16.8% | — | — | 4.4% | 66.6% | 33.4% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 40% | 27% | 18% | — | — | 15% | 61% | 39% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [5] [6] | 10,217 | — | 40.5% | 28.7% | 18.5% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 61.1% | 38.9% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [7] [8] | 8,732 | — | 42.2% | 30% | 15.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 1.1% | 59.8% | 40.2% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 37% | 31% | 16% | — | — | 16% | 57% | 43% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 40% | 34% | 13% | — | — | 13% | 56% | 44% |
Feb – May 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] | 4,040 | — | 45% | 29% | 19% | — | — | 7% | 66% | 34% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 48.3% | 27.8% | 16.8% | 2.7% | — | 4.4% | 65.7% | 34.3% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | ALP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | LIB | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 39.1% | 36.4% | 11.9% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 6.9% | 47.6% | 52.4% | ||
1 – 29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 36% | 34% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 9.4% | 49.6% | 50.4% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 42.2% | 32.2% | 10.7% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 52.5% | 47.5% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 44.4% | 29.9% | 10.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 2.1% | 54.8% | 45.2% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 49% | 32% | 7% | — | — | 12% | 57% | 43% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 49% | 33% | 5% | — | — | 14% | 58% | 42% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 45.2% | 35.3% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 1% | 6.9% | 53.2% | 46.8% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 47.1% | 24.2% | 15.9% | 5.6% | — | 7.2% | 66.0% | 34.0% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 38.9% | 32.3% | 13.5% | 8.1% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 56.3% | 43.7% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 38.5% | 33.8% | 13.2% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 1.9% | 55.4% | 44.6% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 40% | 33% | 14% | — | — | 13% | 57% | 43% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 45% | 36% | 8% | — | — | 11% | 56% | 44% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 50.4% | 26.2% | 12.5% | 4.8% | — | 6.1% | 65.5% | 34.5% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | ALP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 35.1% | 45.3% | 11.8% | 2.3% | — | 5.5% | 59.3% | 40.7% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 40.7% | 31% | 12.8% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 48.6% | 51.4% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 43.8% | 29.4% | 11.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 45.4% | 54.6% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 46% | 33% | 13% | — | — | 8% | 46% | 54% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 41% | 36% | 11% | — | — | 12% | 49% | 51% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 41.4% | 37.7% | 11.4% | 1.7% | — | 7.8% | 51% | 49% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | ALP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | LIB | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 41.7% | 27.0% | 11.9% | 4.1% | 11.4% | 3.9% | 51.6% | 48.4% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 44.1% | 23.8% | 14.8% | 4.8% | 8.4% | 4% | 55.8% | 44.2% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 48.4% | 24% | 12.6% | 4.9% | 8.4% | 1.6% | 58.7% | 41.3% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 49% | 29% | 10% | — | — | 13% | 58% | 42% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 48% | 28% | 11% | — | — | 13% | 58% | 42% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 49.1% | 22.2% | 15.6% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 7% | 59.8% | 40.2% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 46.0% | 19.6% | 7.9% | 3.5% | 18.8% | 4.2% | 71.8% | 28.1% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 39.1% | 30.5% | 12% | 10.1% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 56.5% | 43.5% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 39.1% | 29.9% | 14.2% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 57.7% | 42.3% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 43% | 35% | 10% | — | — | 13% | 56% | 44% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 41% | 31% | 10% | — | — | 18% | 56% | 44% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 55% | 27% | 6.4% | 5.4% | — | 6.3% | 64.9% | 35.1% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2CP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | IND | ALP | GRN | ONP | OTH | LIB | IND | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 38.0% | 27.0% | 20.3% | 6.7% | 1.6% | 6.4% | 49.99% | 50.01% | ||
1 – 29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 27.9% | 47.8% | 12.3% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 35.5% | 64.5% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 39.4% | 27.7% | 20.4% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 50.1% | 49.9% |
3 Feb 2025 | Climate 200 [12] | 1,047 | ±3% | 40% | — | — | — | — | — | 48% | 52% |
Mar – Dec 2024 | Climate 200 [13] | — | — | 43% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 41.7% | 23.9% | 19.7% | 10.1% | 4.1% | 0.5% | 51.9% | 48.1% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 47% | — | 16% | 6% | — | 32% | 53% | 47% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 50% | — | 16% | 6% | — | 27% | 56% | 44% |
Feb – May 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] | 4,040 | — | 51% | — | 22% | 11% | — | 15% | 61% | 39% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 45.1% | 24% | 17.5% | 9.3% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 54.2% | 45.8% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2CP vote | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NAT | IND | ALP | ONP | GRN | OTH | NAT | IND | IND | |||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 29.7% | 39.5% [a] | 10.5% | 7.7% | 3.5% | 9.1% | 43.2% | — | 56.8% | |||
1 – 29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 35.6% | 35.3% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 46.9% | — | 53.1% | |
17–24 Apr 2025 | YouGov [14] [15] | — | ±6% | 25.1% | 38.9% [b] | 8.2% | 13.9% | 5.1% | 8.8% [c] | 43% | — | 57% | |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 42.2% | 21% | 16% | 13.3% | 6.7% | 0.8% | 56.2% | 43.8% | — | |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 46.2% | 18.1% | 15.1% | 13.0% | 6.8% | 0.7% | 59.7% | 40.3% | — | |
Between Mar–Dec 2024 | Climate 200 [13] | — | — | 33% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 53% | — | 23% | — | 6% | 18% | 53% | 47% | — | |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 47% | — | 20% | — | 4% | 29% | 56% | 44% | — | |
Feb – May 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] | 4,040 | — | 46% | — | 18% | — | 8% | 28% | 57% | 43% | — | |
23 Dec 2022 | Andrew Gee resigns from the National Party to sit as an independent [16] | ||||||||||||
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 47.7% | 20.4% | 15.1% | 8.4% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 59.7% | 40.3% | — |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | ONP | GRN | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 52.6% | 19.7% | 6.0% | 9.8% | 1.7% | 10.2% | 69.8% | 30.2% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 41.3% | 29.3% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 58.2% | 41.8% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 43.5% | 27.8% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 6.5% | 2% | 59.4% | 40.6% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 41% | 34% | — | 9% | — | 16% | 54% | 46% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 44% | 30% | — | 13% | — | 13% | 59% | 41% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 52.7% | 24.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 1.9% | 8.7% | 63.5% | 36.5% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | ALP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | LIB | ALP | GRN | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 48.1% | 31.5% | 9.9% | 4.4% | — | 6.1% | 57.2% | 42.8% | — | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 49.4% | 25.1% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 60.2% | 39.8% | — |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 52.5% | 23.9% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 1.4% | 62.9% | 37.1% | — |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 55% | 25% | 6% | — | — | 14% | 63% | 37% | — |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 57% | 25% | 6% | — | — | 12% | 64% | 36% | — |
13 Apr 2024 | 2024 by-election | 62.7% | — | 16.5% | — | 5.7% | 15.2% | 71.3% | — | 28.8% | ||
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 55.3% | 25% | 9.9% | 5.1% | — | 4.5% | 62.4% | 37.6% | — |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NAT | IND | ALP | ONP | GRN | OTH | NAT | IND | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 37.9% | 29.4% | 11.8% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 10.3% | 52.5% | 47.5% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 35.6% | 29.8% | 15.3% | 11.1% | 7.5% | 0.7% | 48.4% | 51.6% |
Late Feb 2025 | Climate 200 [12] | 980 | ±3% | 35% | — | — | — | — | — | 47% | 53% |
Between Mar–Dec 2024 | Climate 200 [13] | — | — | 42% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 37.1% | 25.1% | 16.8% | 12.8% | 7.2% | 1.1% | 50.9% | 49.1% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 42% | — | 26% | — | 5% | 26% | 52% | 48% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 38% | — | 23% | — | 11% | 28% | 47% | 53% |
Feb – May 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] | 4,040 | — | 37% | — | 18% | — | 9% | 36% | 48% | 52% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 39.5% | 26.3% | 14% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 52.3% | 47.7% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 44.7% | 23.2% | 20.4% | 7.6% | — | 4.1% | 67.5% | 32.5% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 37.2% | 27.3% | 19.7% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 60% | 40% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 37.5% | 29.4% | 17.8% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 1.8% | 58.4% | 41.6% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 44% | 28% | 16% | — | — | 12% | 63% | 37% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 40% | 29% | 16% | — | — | 14% | 60% | 40% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 40.1% | 25% | 21.7% | 5.1% | — | 8.1% | 64.7% | 35.3% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 42.8% | 27.8% | 10.3% | 8.7% | — | 10.4% | 59.4% | 40.6% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 35.6% | 34.7% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 52.1% | 47.9% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 34.6% | 34.7% | 9% | 13.4% | 6.4% | 2% | 50.7% | 49.3% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 40% | 38% | 7% | — | — | 14% | 51% | 49% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 38% | 34% | 13% | — | — | 15% | 51% | 49% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 42.9% | 33.7% | 8.6% | 7.5% | — | 7.4% | 56.5% | 43.5% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 43.0% | 31.9% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 57.2% | 42.8% | ||
17 – 24 Apr 2025 | YouGov [14] | 268 | ±6% | 42.2% | 26.0% | 10.9% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 3.3% [d] | 61% | 39% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 32.6% | 35.8% | 10.8% | 9% | 7% | 4.6% | 50.7% | 49.3% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 30.4% | 37% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 3.3% | 48.4% | 51.6% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 39% | 37% | 7% | — | — | 17% | 54% | 46% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 36% | 38% | 7% | — | — | 19% | 53% | 47% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 42.6% | 33.0% | 9.2% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 8.9% | 58.2% | 41.8% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | ALP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | LIB | ALP | IND | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 43.4% | 15.1% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 20.0% | 10.0% | 56.2% | — | 43.2% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 48.5% | 18.9% | 9.5% | 13.1% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 63.6% | 36.4% | — |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 49.5% | 19.5% | 9% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 2.2% | 63.5% | 36.5% | — |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 47% | 17% | 9% | — | — | 27% | 65% | 35% | — |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 51% | 19% | 7% | — | — | 23% | 66% | 34% | — |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 52.3% | 19% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 10.2% | 66.4% | 33.7% | — |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | IND | LIB | GRN | ONP | OTH | IND | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 37.5% | 33.5% | 12.3% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 52.7% | 47.3% | — | ||
1 – 29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 27.2% | 44.8% | 13.8% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 1.4% | 63% | 37% | — |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 27% | — | 21% | 9% | — | 44% | 57% | 43% | — |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 31.6% | 26.9% | 23.1% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 1.5% | 52.7% | 47.3% | — |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 32.1% | 22% | 26.9% | 11.9% | 5.4% | 1.6% | — | 55.8% | 44.2% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 22% | — | 23% | 7% | — | 47% | 66% | 34% | — |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 26% | — | 27% | 7% | — | 40% | 61% | — | 39% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 36.1% | 29.5% | 17.2% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 8.9% | 51.6% | 48.4% | — |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | ALP | GRN | IND | ONP | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 34.5% | 38.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 55.1% | 44.9% | ||
17–24 Apr 2025 | YouGov [14] | — | ±6% | 33.5% | 36.2% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 4.7% [e] | — | — |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 38.8% | 31.7% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 8% | 1.1% | 49.1% | 50.9% |
17–20 Feb 2025 | uComms [f] [17] [18] [19] [20] | 684 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 47.2% | 52.8% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 39.6% | 29.3% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 8.3% | 1.3% | 47.2% | 52.8% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 45% | 32% | 6% | — | — | 17% | 45% | 55% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 44% | 29% | 9% | — | — | 18% | 44% | 56% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 42% | 36% | 10.2% | 4.2% | 4% | 3.6% | 50.2% | 49.8% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | GRN | LIB | IND | ONP | OTH | ALP | GRN | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 53.5% | 25.1% | 14.3% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 66.9% | 33.1% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 44.5% | 23.4% | 19.1% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 63% | 37% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 46.9% | 21.7% | 19.4% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 1.5% | 63.8% | 36.2% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 48% | 21% | 25% | — | — | 6% | 66% | 34% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 46% | 26% | 20% | — | — | 7% | 63% | 37% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 53.6% | 22% | 16% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 4.7% | 67.1% | 33% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 50.4% | 27.5% | 10.7% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 63.8% | 36.2% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 37.6% | 39.6% | 7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 3% | 49.8% | 50.2% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 34.9% | 37% | 10.6% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 1.9% | 51.4% | 48.6% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 40% | 41% | 8% | — | — | 11% | 52% | 48% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 42% | 37% | 8% | — | — | 13% | 55% | 45% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 48.3% | 29.8% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 10.6% | 61.5% | 38.5% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | ALP | IND | GRN | ONP | OTH | LIB | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 36.5% | 39.0% | — | 11.4% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 46.9% | 53.1% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 39.5% | 24.4% | 17.2% | 10.4% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 53.9% | 46.1% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 42.3% | 24.5% | 15.4% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 1.4% | 56.3% | 43.7% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 44% | 31% | — | 10% | — | 16% | 53% | 47% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 44% | 35% | — | 8% | — | 13% | 51% | 49% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 43.5% | 22.5% | 17.5% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 7.4% | 57% | 43% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | ALP | IND | ONP | GRN | OTH | LIB | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 43.9% | 27.2% | 4.5% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 58.1% | 41.9% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 42.8% | 22.3% | 11.8% | 7.7% | 12.8% | 2.7% | 59.1% | 40.9% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 46.7% | 20.2% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 8.2% | 1.6% | 61.9% | 38.1% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 48% | 24% | — | — | 5% | 23% | 60% | 40% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 44% | 27% | — | — | 6% | 23% | 56% | 44% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 43.1% | 19.9% | 16.4% | 7.4% | 5% | 8.3% | 57.7% | 42.3% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | NAT | ONP | GRN | IND | OTH | ALP | ONP | NAT | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 43.5% | 18.2% | 16.1% | 7.4% | — | 14.8% | 59.0% | 41.0% | — | ||
24 Apr 2025 | KJC Research [21] [22] | 600 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 45% | — | 41% |
17 – 24 Apr 2025 | YouGov [14] | — | ±6% | 35.8% | 14.5% | 25.3% | 8.8% | 0.5% | 15.0% [g] | — | — | — |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 33.2% | 30.8% | 16.2% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 2.2% | 52.2% | — | 47.8% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 30.6% | 33.5% | 15.3% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 2.2% | 49.1% | — | 50.9% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 31% | 30% | — | 9% | — | 30% | 49% | — | 51% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 36% | 31% | — | 8% | — | 25% | 51% | — | 49% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 38.5% | 27.4% | 10% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 54% | — | 46% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 50.8% | 26.1% | 13.6% | 5.9% | 3.6% | — | 67.2% | 32.8% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 41.5% | 29.9% | 16% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 2% | 60.1% | 39.9% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 39.8% | 31.8% | 15.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 1.4% | 58.1% | 41.9% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 40% | 35% | 16% | — | — | 9% | 57% | 43% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 41% | 33% | 17% | — | — | 10% | 58% | 42% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 47.9% | 28.7% | 16.8% | 3.1% | — | 3.5% | 64.5% | 35.5% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | ALP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | LIB | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 39.7% | 31.1% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 1.1% | 10.6% | 52.8% | 47.2% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 43.2% | 28.8% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 55.4% | 44.6% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 43.3% | 28.5% | 9.5% | 11.9% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 56.4% | 43.6% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 48% | 29% | 7% | — | — | 16% | 59% | 41% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 48% | 28% | 9% | — | — | 15% | 58% | 42% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 46.7% | 31.7% | 8% | 5.9% | — | 7.6% | 56.3% | 43.7% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NAT | ALP | ONP | GRN | IND | OTH | NAT | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 36.2% | 19.8% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 15.5% | 13.7% | 59.8% | 40.2% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 41.1% | 20.9% | 14% | 8.3% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 58.9% | 41.1% |
Late Feb 2025 | Climate 200 [12] | 867 | ±3% | 39% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 44.7% | 20.2% | 12% | 7.9% | 12.5% | 2.7% | 61% | 39% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 40% | 22% | — | 8% | — | 30% | 62% | 38% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 39% | 20% | — | 11% | — | 30% | 62% | 38% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 43.5% | 21.5% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 63.8% | 36.2% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | ONP | GRN | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 48.2% | 23.1% | 7.8% | 12.8% | — | 8.1% | 65.6% | 34.4% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 35% | 33.4% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 4.8% | 3% | 52.6% | 47.4% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 37.6% | 33.1% | 12.8% | 9.9% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 53.2% | 46.8% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 32% | 41% | — | 12% | — | 15% | 48% | 52% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 38% | 35% | — | 15% | — | 12% | 54% | 46% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 45.9% | 30.5% | 8% | 7.7% | — | 7.9% | 58.5% | 41.5% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | IND | ALP | GRN | ONP | OTH | IND | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 35.5% | 38.0% | 12.1% | 6.1% | 2.5% | 5.8% | 55.7% | 44.3% | ||
5–7 Mar 2025 | Freshwater Strategy [h] [23] [24] | 830 | — | 41% | 33% | 7% | 7% | — | 12% | Loss | Win |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 39.7% | 34% | 14.2% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 0.5% | 51.6% | 48.4% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 37.7% | 34.5% | 13.6% | 8.9% | 4.8% | 0.4% | 53.8% | 46.2% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 43% | — | 13% | 3% | — | 40% | 49% | 51% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 43% | — | 11% | 7% | — | 39% | 53% | 47% |
5 Feb 2024 | uComms [i] [25] | 602 | ±3.85% | 35.3% | 30.4% | 13.2% | 5.8% | — | 4.5% | 54% | 46% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 41.4% | 38.1% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 52.5% | 47.5% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 42.6% | 31.6% | 12.5% | 8.7% | — | 4.6% | 57.7% | 42.3% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 32.7% | 36.5% | 12.7% | 10.1% | 5.7% | 2.6% | 50.6% | 49.4% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 34.3% | 37.2% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 6.3% | 1.8% | 49.9% | 50.1% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 35% | 39% | 8% | — | — | 18% | 51% | 49% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 30% | 37% | 19% | — | — | 13% | 54% | 46% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 43% | 34.6% | 9.6% | 5.2% | — | 7.7% | 57.8% | 42.2% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 45.5% | 26.8% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 9.8% | — | 59.0% | 41.0% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 45.5% | 27.5% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 3.9% | — | 60.8% | 39.2% |
8 Apr 2025 | Compass Polling [26] [27] [28] | 1,003 | ±2.5% | 19% | 20% | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 40% | 31% | 10% | — | — | 19% | 56% | 44% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 37.8% | 33.6% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 54% | 46% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 37.7% | 34.1% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 53.5% | 46.5% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 41% | 36% | 11% | — | — | 12% | 55% | 45% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 45% | 35% | 8% | — | — | 12% | 56% | 44% |
Feb – May 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] | 4,040 | — | 44% | 32% | 8% | — | — | 17% | 60% | 40% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 48% | 28.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% | — | 12.4% | 59.5% | 40.5% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | ALP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | LIB | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 46.3% | 33.2% | 13.7% | 4.3% | — | 2.5% | 53.8% | 46.2% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 50.1% | 23.9% | 12.8% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 60% | 40% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 53.3% | 23.5% | 10.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 1.6% | 62.1% | 37.9% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 56% | 25% | 10% | — | — | 9% | 63% | 37% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 55% | 25% | 10% | — | — | 10% | 63% | 37% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 52.6% | 25.5% | 11.8% | 3% | — | 7.1% | 60.7% | 39.3% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NAT | ALP | IND | GRN | ONP | OTH | NAT | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 52.2% | 20.3% | 3.7% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 5.9% | 67.1% | 32.9% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 43.8% | 18.2% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 5.9% | 61.2% | 38.8% |
9–23 Apr 2025 | New England Times [29] | 426 | ±4% | 43.6% | 24.1% | 2.4% | 12.2% | 6.8% | 3.8% [j] | 57.3% | 42.7% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 46% | 19.7% | 11% | 8.5% | 13.1% | 1.7% | 61.9% | 38.1% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 46.9% | 18.4% | 13.9% | 9% | 10.3% | 1.4% | 62.2% | 37.8% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 46% | 19% | — | 8% | — | 27% | 64% | 36% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 41% | 17% | — | 5% | — | 37% | 64% | 35% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 52.5% | 18.6% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 66.4% | 33.6% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | GRN | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 45.3% | 19.1% | 22.2% | 5.4% | 0.8% | 7.2% | 65.8% | — | 34.2% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 38.2% | 25.8% | 19.8% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 61.2% | 38.8% | — |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 41.1% | 26.7% | 17.1% | 8.4% | 5.1% | 1.6% | 61.1% | 38.9% | — |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 43% | 26% | 19% | — | — | 11% | 63% | 37% | — |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 41% | 28% | 15% | — | — | 15% | 63% | 37% | — |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 44.1% | 24.4% | 20.1% | 4.5% | — | 6.9% | 68% | 32% | — |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NAT | ALP | IND | GRN | ONP | OTH | NAT | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 44.7% | 22.0% | 1.3% | 15.1% | 5.7% | 11.2% | 59.3% | 40.7% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 41.9% | 20.7% | 14.5% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 2.5% | 58.2% | 41.8% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 43.1% | 18.1% | 16.2% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 2.4% | 59.4% | 40.6% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 44% | 22% | — | 10% | — | 24% | 58% | 42% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 42% | 21% | — | 9% | — | 28% | 58% | 42% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 45.6% | 18.7% | 13.1% | 8.5% | 5.4% | 8.7% | 60.7% | 39.3% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NAT | ALP | ONP | GRN | IND | OTH | NAT | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 39.9% | 19.7% | 13.6% | 6.1% | 2.5% | 18.2% | 63.0% | 37.0% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 46.5% | 18.5% | 16.2% | 7% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 64.3% | 35.7% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 47.5% | 19.4% | 15.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 64.3% | 35.7% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 43% | 19% | — | 5% | — | 33% | 67% | 33% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 43% | 18% | — | 5% | — | 33% | 67% | 33% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 49.3% | 20.2% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 15.8% | 67.8% | 32.2% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 47.8% | 30.7% | 12.1% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 62.5% | 37.5% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 35.8 | 37.3% | 12.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 52.6% | 47.4% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 34% | 38.1% | 12.5% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 2.1% | 51.3% | 48.7% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 40% | 36% | 14% | — | — | 10% | 52% | 48% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 40% | 40% | 9% | — | — | 11% | 52% | 48% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 40.7% | 35% | 9% | 2.4% | — | 13% | 54.6% | 45.4% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | ONP | GRN | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 37.1% | 27.2% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 12.1% | 7.4% | 56.9% | 43.1% | ||
17–24 Apr 2025 | YouGov [14] | — | ±6% | 30.9% | 25.9% | 14.2% | 11.5% | 15.9% | 1.6% [k] | — | — |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 36% | 37.2% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 50.6% | 49.4% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 31.3% | 38.9% | 14.1% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 2.5% | 46.4% | 53.6% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 34% | 45% | — | 14% | — | 7% | 46% | 54% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 32% | 42% | — | 9% | — | 17% | 46% | 54% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 40.7% | 36.7% | 8.2% | 7.6% | — | 6.9% | 53.3% | 46.7% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | IND | ONP | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 48.6% | 31.7% | 11.5% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 62.0% | 38.0% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 34.3% | 38.5% | 12.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 51.3% | 48.7% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 34.8% | 38.3% | 11.8% | 8% | 5.1% | 1.8% | 51.5% | 48.5% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 40% | 44% | 7% | — | — | 9% | 50% | 50% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 38% | 39% | 16% | — | — | 7% | 55% | 45% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 41.6% | 37.9% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 2% | 6% | 55.2% | 44.8% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | GRN | NAT | IND | ONP | OTH | ALP | NAT | GRN | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 30.4% | 26.5% | 24.6% | 2.6% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 60.0% | 40.0% | — | ||
24 Apr 2025 | KJC Research [21] [22] | 600 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 34% | — | 39% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 26.1% | 19.4% | 28.4% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 6.3% | 53.7% | 46.3% | — |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 25.4% | 22.7% | 31.3% | 9.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 53.4% | 46.6% | — |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 36% | 21% | 27% | — | — | 17% | 60% | 40% | — |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 31% | 18% | 22% | — | — | 29% | 56% | 44% | — |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 28.8% | 25.3% | 23.4% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 12.9% | 58.2% | 41.8% | — |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NAT | ALP | ONP | GRN | IND | OTH | NAT | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 40.3% | 18.4% | 9.9% | 4.5% | 16.6% | 10.3% | 62.6% | 37.4% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGo (MRP)v [6] | 10,217 | — | 42.6% | 20.9% | 16.8% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 60.8% | 39.2% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 44.6% | 21.6% | 13.4% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 60.8% | 39.2% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 40% | 23% | — | 10% | — | 26% | 58% | 42% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 45% | 26% | — | 7% | — | 22% | 59% | 41% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 46.6% | 20.5% | 8.2% | 6.4% | — | 15.6% | 64.9% | 35.2% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | ALP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 30.4% | 44.8% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 6.6% | 59.4% | 40.6% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 38.4% | 32.5% | 11.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 50.1% | 49.9% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 39.6% | 32.2% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 1.9% | 48.1% | 51.9% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 45% | 33% | 10% | — | — | 12% | 47% | 53% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 43% | 33% | 11% | — | — | 13% | 49% | 51% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 40% | 37.7% | 10% | 3.8% | — | 8.5% | 52.3% | 47.7% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 44.6% | 26.2% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 61.5% | 38.5% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 34.6% | 34% | 12% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 53% | 47% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 33.2% | 35.8% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 3% | 50% | 50% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 41% | 41% | 7% | — | — | 11% | 51% | 49% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 37% | 37% | 12% | — | — | 15% | 53% | 47% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 40% | 32.1% | 9.9% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 9.1% | 55.8% | 44.2% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | GRN | LIB | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | GRN | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 55.2% | 21.6% | 17.6% | 3.4% | — | 2.2% | 70.9% | 29.1% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 44.5% | 23.9% | 20.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 63.3% | 36.7% |
17 – 18 Mar 2025 | uComms [i] [30] | 860 | — | 41.1% | 18.8% | 16.0% | — | — | 10.6% [l] | 66% | 34% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 46.3% | 24.3% | 19.5% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 62.6% | 37.4% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 44% | 23% | 21% | — | — | 12% | 63% | 37% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 52% | 18% | 23% | — | — | 6% | 70% | 30% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 50.8% | 23% | 19.7% | 1.8% | — | 4.7% | 66.7% | 33.3% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IND | LIB | ALP | GRN | ONP | OTH | IND | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 39.7% | 31.7% | 14.6% | 8.8% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 61.2% | 38.8% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 44.3% | 28.1% | 15.4% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 0.6% | 63.5% | 36.5% |
5–7 Mar 2025 | Freshwater Strategy [h] [23] [24] | 830 | — | 33% | 41% | 7% | 7% | — | 12% | Win | Loss |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 40.9% | 31.5% | 15.5% | 9.3% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 59.6% | 40.4% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 37% | 31.9% | 16.4% | 11% | 3.2% | 0.6% | 59.2% | 40.8% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | — | 36% | 17% | 7% | — | 40% | 55% | 45% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | — | 37% | 17% | 10% | — | 36% | 58% | 42% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 44.8% | 33.4% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 61% | 39% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 48.0% | 15.2% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 16.1% | 8.6% | 66.5% | 43.5% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 39.8% | 29.7% | 12.6% | 10.7% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 57.3% | 42.7% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 42.1% | 28.1% | 13.9% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 60.2% | 39.8% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 41% | 38% | 11% | — | — | 11% | 54% | 46% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 40% | 30% | 14% | — | — | 17% | 58% | 42% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 51.9% | 26.6% | 9.6% | 4.9% | — | 7.2% | 65.1% | 34.9% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2CP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | IND | ALP | GRN | ONP | OTH | IND | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 36.3% | 36.5% | 13.4% | 10.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 58.3% | 41.7% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 30.4% | 32.7% | 20.6% | 11.5% | 4.9% | — | 58.4% | 41.6% |
18 Apr 2025 (released) | Compass Polling [31] [32] [33] | 627 | — | 47% | 28% | 15% | 10% | — | — | — | — |
9 Apr 2025 (released) | uComms [m] [34] [35] | 1,015 | — | 32.9% | 32.5% | 12.2% | — | — | — | 58% | 42% |
5–7 Mar 2025 | Freshwater Strategy [h] [23] [24] | 830 | — | 41% | 33% | 7% | 7% | — | 12% | Win | Loss |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 35% | 29.3% | 20.7% | 12% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 53.6% | 46.4% |
12 Feb 2025 | uComms [m] [19] [20] [36] | 1,068 | — | 35.0% | 32.6% | 14.7% | 10.8% | — | — | — | — |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 34.4% | 28.1% | 20.7% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 0.6% | 55% | 45% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 38% | — | 17% | 8% | — | 37% | 54% | 46% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 40% | — | 17% | 9% | — | 33% | 55% | 45% |
5 Feb 2024 | uComms [i] [25] | 643 | ±3.85% | 35.5% | 32.1% | 13.1% | 10% | — | 2.9% | 57% | 43.0% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 40.5% | 35.8% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 1% | 3.6% | 54.2% | 45.8% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 40.8% | 30.8% | 11.1% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 9.6% | 56.8% | 43.2% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 31.8% | 26.5% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 3.2% | 17.6% | 53.3% | 46.7% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 30.7% | 36.2% | 11.1% | 9% | 4.6% | 8.5% | 49.4% | 50.6% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 32.7% | 37.6% | 11% | 9.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 49.4% | 50.6% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 37% | 38% | 8% | — | — | 17% | 51% | 49% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 39% | 35% | 7% | — | — | 19% | 54% | 46% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 39.9% | 30.7% | 6.7% | 5.1% | — | 17.7% | 55.8% | 44.2% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 38.6% | 28.3% | 12.4% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 56.2% | 43.8% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 39.3% | 26.5% | 12.5% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 59.2% | 40.8% |
6 Apr 2025 | Ben Britton disendorsed as Liberal candidate and replaced by Nathaniel Smith [37] | ||||||||||
3 Apr 2025 | Nationals candidate Katrina Hodgkinson withdraws and endorses the Liberals [38] | ||||||||||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 35% | 33.2% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 52.9% | 47.1% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 33.8% | 35% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 50.6% | 49.4% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 37% | 33% | 12% | — | — | 17% | 55% | 45% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 36% | 34% | 15% | — | — | 16% | 54% | 46% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 45% | 28.2% | 10.8% | 6.9% | — | 9.1% | 60.1% | 39.9% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | CLP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | CLP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 44.6% | 31.0% | 10.2% | 9.1% | — | 5.1% | 58.1% | 41.9% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 40.9% | 27.2% | 12.2% | 13% | — | 6.7% | 58% | 42% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 28% | 26% | 12% | — | — | 35% | 49% | 51% |
27 Feb - 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 35.2% | 32.1% | 14.2% | 9.9% | 6% | 2.5% | 54.6% | 45.4% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 37.5% | 28.7% | 14.3% | 10.3% | 6.6% | 2.7% | 57.2% | 42.8% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 33% | 38% | 9% | — | — | 21% | 46% | 54% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 30% | 36% | 12% | — | — | 22% | 47% | 53% |
Feb – May 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] | 4,040 | — | 30% | 33% | 8% | — | — | 29% | 50% | 50% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 36.6% | 34.7% | 11.0% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 9.4% | 51.0% | 49.0% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | CLP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | CLP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 32.8% | 36.0% | 10.3% | 6.7% | 13.6% | 0.6% | 51.3% | 48.7% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 36.6% | 25.9% | 20% | 8% | 2.2% | 7.4% | 59.7% | 40.3% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 45% | 27% | 12% | — | — | 16% | 61% | 39% |
27 Feb - 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 34.2% | 29.9% | 15.1% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 55.7% | 44.3% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 32.3% | 32.8% | 15.6% | 8.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 53% | 47% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 45% | 29% | 14% | — | — | 12% | 61% | 39% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 46% | 26% | 13% | — | — | 25% | 62% | 38% |
Feb – May 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] | 4,040 | — | 38% | 28% | 14% | — | — | 19% | 61% | 39% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 39.5% | 25% | 14.8% | 5.4% | — | 15.4% | 59.4% | 40.6% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LNP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LNP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 36.6% | 27.2% | 10.3% | 9.7% | — | 15.2% | 55.7% | 44.3% | ||
24 Apr 2025 | KJC Research [21] [22] | 600 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 41% | 46% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 31.6% | 32.4% | 12.5% | 14.2% | 4.2% | 4% | 51.6% | 48.4% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 32.7% | 32.9% | 11.7% | 15.8% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 50.8% | 49.2% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 34% | 28% | 15% | — | — | 23% | 56% | 44% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 34% | 30% | 16% | — | — | 19% | 56% | 44% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 35% | 28.9% | 12.6% | 10% | — | 13.5% | 55.2% | 44.8% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LNP | ALP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | LNP | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 35.5% | 39.5% | 12.4% | 3.8% | — | 8.8% | 45.0% | 55.0% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 41.7% | 27.3% | 15.6% | 8.6% | 5.2% | 1.6% | 53.6% | 46.4% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 43.8% | 28.3% | 14.4% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 0.9% | 54.4% | 45.6% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 47% | 32% | 12% | — | — | 9% | 55% | 45% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 46% | 27% | 17% | — | — | 10% | 55% | 45% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 44.8% | 29.6% | 16.8% | 5.6% | — | 3.3% | 53.4% | 46.6% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LNP | ALP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | LNP | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 39.6% | 31.7% | 11.8% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 6.7% | 52.4% | 47.6% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 42.1% | 26% | 12.4% | 11% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 55.8% | 44.2% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 45.5% | 25.1% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 6.1% | 1.9% | 58.5% | 41.5% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 52% | 30% | 11% | — | — | 8% | 59% | 41% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 44% | 27% | 13% | — | — | 16% | 57% | 43% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 42.4% | 29.2% | 13% | 7.7% | — | 7.6% | 55.5% | 44.5% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2CP vote | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LNP | ALP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | GRN | LNP | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 34.3% | 32.1% | 25.9% | 2.5% | — | 5.2% | — | 41.0% | 59.0% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 24.7% | 32.3% | 23.3% | 7.6% | — | 12.2% | 52.7% | 47.3% | — [n] |
Mid-Apr 2025 | DemosAU [o] [39] | — | — | 36% | 29% | 29% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
17 Apr 2025 (released) | JWS Research [p] [40] [41] | c. 800 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 49% | 51% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 45% | 21% | 28% | — | — | 6% | 48% | 53% | — |
20 Mar 2025 | uComms [q] [42] [43] [44] | 1,184 | — | 32.1% | 23.2% | 24.2% | — | — | 20.5% | 52% | 48% | — |
— | 44% | 56% | ||||||||||
16 Mar 2025 (released) | Insightfully [r] [45] [46] [47] | 600 | — | 36.4% | 29.5% | 18.1% | — | 9.7% | 6.3% | 47.0% | 53.0% | — |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 35.4% | 31.3% | 25% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.3% | — | 44.9% | 55.1% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8.732 | — | 35.7% | 30% | 23.7% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 1.9% | — | 46.3% | 53.7% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4.909 | — | 37% | 25% | 31% | — | — | 7% | 55% | 45% | — |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 39% | 22% | 29% | — | — | 10% | 52% | 48% | — |
Feb – May 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] | 4,040 | — | 41% | 29% | 22% | — | — | 8% | 50% | 50% | — |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 37.7% | 27.3% | 27.2% | 2.2% | — | 5.6% | 53.7% | 46.3% | — |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LNP | ALP | ONP | GRN | IND | OTH | LNP | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 36.6% | 31.9% | 15.5% | 6.2% | — | 9.8% | 55.8% | 44.2% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 39.3% | 23.8% | 21.2% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 58.9% | 41.1% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 41.2% | 25.6% | 20.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 1.1% | 59.4% | 40.6% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 45% | 26% | — | 5% | — | 23% | 60% | 40% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 42% | 27% | — | 7% | — | 24% | 58% | 42% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 39.4% | 28.1% | 14.6% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 8.7% | 56.6% | 43.4% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LNP | ALP | ONP | GRN | IND | OTH | LNP | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 41.7% | 26.2% | 10.4% | 7.0% | — | 14.7% | 61.8% | 38.2% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 42.9% | 21.6% | 18.5% | 8.4% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 61.1% | 38.9% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 45.3% | 23.6% | 18.3% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 61.9% | 38.1% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 52% | 24% | — | 8% | — | 16% | 64% | 36% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 45% | 26% | — | 8% | — | 21% | 60% | 40% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 43.3% | 24.5% | 13.3% | 7.2% | — | 11.7% | 60.4% | 39.6% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LNP | ALP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | LNP | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 34.7% | 33.6% | 7.6% | 4.3% | 12.2% | 7.7% | 44.0% | 56.0% | ||
17–24 Apr 2025 | YouGov [14] [48] | 253 | ±6% | 40.3% | 24.2% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 16.5% | 6.0% [s] | 55% | 45% |
10 Apr 2025 (released) | Freshwater Strategy [t] [49] | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 57% | 43% |
10 Apr 2025 (released) | uComms [m] [49] | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 48.3% | 51.7% |
9–10 Apr 2025 | uComms [u] [49] | 854 | — | 37.6% | 24.2% | 10.9% | — | 12.0% | 4.6% | 48% | 52% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 39.7% | 28.8% | 12.7% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 2.4% | 52.5% | 47.5% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 41.3% | 28.2% | 12.3% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 1.2% | 53.9% | 46.1% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 48% | 33% | 6% | — | — | 12% | 56% | 44% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 42% | 30% | 9% | — | — | 19% | 55% | 45% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 42.1% | 31.7% | 13% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 4% | 51.7% | 48.3% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LNP | ALP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | LNP | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 41.0% | 27.4% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 11.5% | 56.9% | 43.1% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 42.7% | 23.2% | 10.8% | 14.3% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 58.4% | 41.6% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 47.2% | 21.8% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 6.6% | 2.2% | 61.1% | 38.9% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 45% | 25% | 10% | — | — | 19% | 59% | 41% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 43% | 25% | 11% | — | — | 22% | 58% | 42% |
15 Jul 2023 | 2023 by-election | 49.1% | 22.1% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 11.1% | 63.4% | 36.7% | ||
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 44.6% | 22.4% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 4.2% | 9.5% | 60.6% | 39.4% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LNP | ALP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | LNP | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 37.9% | 24.9% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 13.4% | 6.2% | 53.2% | 46.8% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 41.2% | 22.2% | 12.3% | 12.9% | 7.7% | 3.7% | 57.4% | 42.6% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 45.3% | 21.2% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 7.3% | 2.2% | 59.8% | 40.2% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 45% | 22% | 9% | — | — | 24% | 61% | 39% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 42% | 24% | 9% | — | — | 25% | 58% | 42% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 44.9% | 21.9% | 13.4% | 6.6% | 2.1% | 11.2% | 59% | 41.1% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LNP | ALP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | LNP | ALP | IND | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 37.2% | 22.3% | 9.6% | 6.1% | 16.3% | 8.5% | 56.0% | 44.0% | — | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 41.6% | 21.2% | 13.1% | 14.4% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 58.2% | 41.8% | — |
Late Feb 2025 | Climate 200 [12] | — | ±3% | 43% | — | — | — | — | — | Win | — | Loss |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 45.2% | 23.3% | 12% | 12% | 5.7% | 1.9% | 59.2% | 40.8% | — |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 49% | 25% | 8% | — | — | 17% | 62% | 38% | — |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 44% | 25% | 11% | — | — | 20% | 59% | 41% | — |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 44.3% | 23.3% | 13.8% | 9.3% | — | 9.3% | 58.7% | 41.3% | — |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LNP | ALP | ONP | GRN | IND | OTH | LNP | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 37.4% | 25.1% | 14.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 12.6% | 60.2% | 39.8% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 36.8% | 25.7% | 22.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 57% | 43% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 38.2% | 27.3% | 19.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 2.1% | 56.5% | 43.5% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 45% | 32% | — | 5% | — | 18% | 58% | 42% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 40% | 30% | — | 9% | — | 21% | 55% | 45% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 36.9% | 33.5% | 12.2% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 9% | 53.8% | 46.2% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LNP | ALP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | LNP | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 30.7% | 34.2% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 10.4% | 48.2% | 51.8% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 36.9% | 25.1% | 11.4% | 14.2% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 54.3% | 45.7% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 38.9% | 26% | 13.3% | 12% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 54.8% | 45.2% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 37% | 26% | 16% | — | — | 21% | 53% | 47% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 35% | 30% | 15% | — | — | 21% | 51% | 49% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 36.9% | 28% | 9.9% | 8% | 3.1% | 14.1% | 54.2% | 45.8% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GRN | LNP | ALP | ONP | IND | OTH | GRN | LNP | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 31.6% | 26.6% | 34.5% | 2.5% | — | 4.8% | 39.4% | — | 60.6% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 38% | 25.6% | 27.2% | 5.5% | — | 3.7% | 52% | — | 48% |
Mid-Apr 2025 | DemosAU [o] [39] | — | — | 29% | 36% | 29% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
17 Apr 2025 (released) | JWS Research [p] [40] [41] | c. 800 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 49% | 51% |
47% | 53% | — | ||||||||||
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 35% | 31% | 25% | — | — | 9% | 59% | 41% | — |
16 Mar 2025 (released) | Insightfully [r] [45] [46] [47] | 600 | — | 31.3% | 38.6% | 22.6% | — | 1.5% | 5.9% | — | — | — |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 30.5% | 29.8% | 32.5% | 4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 45.2% | — | 54.8% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 30.7% | 29.3% | 31.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 1% | 47.1% | — | 52.9% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 34% | 29% | 26% | — | — | 10% | 59% | 41% | — |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 38% | 31% | 20% | — | — | 11% | 58% | 42% | — |
Feb – May 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] | 4,040 | — | 29% | 30% | 30% | — | — | 12 | 59% | 41% | — |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 34.6% | 30.7% | 28.9% | 3.3% | — | 2.4% | 60.5% | 39.5% | — |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LNP | ALP | IND | ONP | GRN | OTH | LNP | IND | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 41.0% | 16.6% | 17.1% | 9.6% | 5.6% | 10.1% | 55.7% | 44.3% | — | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 43.6% | 19.3% | 12.1% | 14.9% | 8.4% | 1.7% | 61.2% | — | 38.8% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 45.3% | 18.2% | 13.6% | 14.4% | 7.3% | 1.2% | 62.9% | — | 37.1% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 46% | 24% | — | — | 7% | 24% | 55% | 45% | — |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 44% | 27% | — | — | 5% | 24% | 53% | 47% | — |
Feb – May 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] | 4,040 | — | 45% | 20% | — | 7% | — | 28% | 55% | 45% | — |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 43.7% | 18.7% | 15.4% | 9.6% | 5.85% | 6.7% | 56.9% | 43.1% | — |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LNP | ALP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | LNP | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 48.7% | 23.0% | 9.4% | 5.2% | — | 13.7% | 63.4% | 46.6% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 45% | 23.6% | 10.3% | 9% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 58.6% | 41.4% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 45.2% | 21.1% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 60.7% | 39.3% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 49% | 23% | 9% | — | — | 19% | 62% | 38% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 46% | 27% | 8% | — | — | 19% | 58% | 42% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 47% | 21.6% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 13.7% | 61.8% | 38.2% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LNP | ALP | IND | ONP | GRN | OTH | LNP | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 38.0% | 31.2% | 2.9% | 13.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 56.3% | 43.7% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 41.9% | 22.9% | 11% | 15% | 7.2% | 2% | 58.9% | 41.1% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 43.2% | 20.2% | 15.8% | 13.4% | 6.1% | 1.4% | 60.7% | 39.3% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 49% | 29% | — | — | 7% | 15% | 59% | 41% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 44% | 29% | — | — | 6% | 20% | 57% | 43% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 42.1% | 23.3% | 13.1% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 60.1% | 39.9% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OTH | LNP | ALP | GRN | IND | KAP | LNP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 52.2% | 23.8% | 16.4% | 5.9% | 1.7% | 65.8% | 34.2% | ||
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 48% | 29% | 17% | 6% | — | 62% | 38% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 46.5% | 27.5% | 15.6% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 65.2% | 34.8% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 42.2% | 33% | 14.3% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 60.7% | 39.3% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 45% | 27% | 19% | 8% | — | 58% | 42% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 40% | 32% | 22% | 6% | — | 60% | 40% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 46.% | 28.2% | 16.1% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 63.1% | 36.9% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LNP | ALP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | LNP | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 27.3% | 36.5% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 1.8% | 14.8% | 44.0% | 56.0% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 37.1% | 26.1% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 53.3% | 46.7% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 37.5% | 27.5% | 12.2% | 13.5% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 53.5% | 46.5% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 41% | 30% | 9% | — | — | 20% | 54% | 46% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 34% | 31% | 6% | — | — | 29% | 52% | 48% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 36.7% | 27.6% | 10% | 7.4% | — | 18.3% | 53.4% | 46.6% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LNP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LNP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 46.1% | 27.7% | 16.4% | 4.2% | — | 5.6% | 64.5% | 35.5% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 38.4% | 30.8% | 16.4% | 6.6% | 5% | 2.8% | 57.9% | 42.1% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 36.8% | 32.6% | 15.2% | 7.5% | 6% | 1.9% | 55.7% | 44.3% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 44% | 34% | 17% | — | — | 5% | 60% | 40% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 39% | 31% | 22% | — | — | 8% | 61% | 39% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 41.8% | 29.8% | 17.1% | 4.1% | — | 7.2% | 60.5% | 39.5% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LNP | ALP | ONP | GRN | IND | OTH | LNP | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 36.1% | 35.5% | 9.9% | 9.8% | — | 8.7% | 50.1% | 49.9% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 38.3% | 27.6% | 13.3% | 9.5% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 54.4% | 45.6% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 39.9% | 26.6% | 14.6% | 8.6% | 6% | 4.4% | 56.3% | 43.7% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 42% | 31% | — | 10% | — | 16% | 53% | 47% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 40% | 32% | — | 9% | — | 18% | 53% | 47% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 38.2% | 31.5% | 8.3% | 7.2% | — | 14.9% | 53.1% | 46.9% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LNP | ALP | ONP | GRN | IND | OTH | LNP | ALP | ONP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 53.2% | 16.0% | 12.3% | 5.2% | — | 13.3% | 70.1% | — | 29.9% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 48.6% | 14.8% | 24.8% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 67.7% | — | 32.3% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 51.8% | 16.9% | 18.3% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 72% | — | 28% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 54% | 14% | — | 4% | — | 29% | 73% | 27% | — |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 52% | 14% | — | 4% | — | 30% | 72% | 28% | — |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 56.3% | 15.3% | 11.9% | 4.9% | — | 11.7% | 72.1% | 27.9% | — |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LNP | ALP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | LNP | ALP | IND | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 35.9% | 23.4% | 8.4% | 4.4% | 13.7% | 14.2% | 54.4% | 45.6% | — | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 41.5% | 23% | 13.4% | 12% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 56.8% | 43.2% | — |
Late Feb 2025 | Climate 200 [12] | — | ±3% | 42% | — | — | — | — | — | Win | — | Loss |
Between Mar–Dec 2024 | Climate 200 [13] | — | — | 42% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 44.9% | 22.8% | 14.1% | 10.3% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 58.4% | 41.6% | — |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 48% | 27% | 7% | — | — | 18% | 61% | 39% | — |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 43% | 27% | 10% | — | — | 20% | 58% | 42% | — |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 43.6% | 22% | 15.4% | 7.2% | — | 11.8% | 59.3% | 40.7% | — |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LNP | ALP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | LNP | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 41.9% | 24.5% | 9.5% | 5.9% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 58.8% | 41.2% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 43.2% | 22.5% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 58.5% | 41.5% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 45.7% | 22.6% | 12.6% | 10.7% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 59.4% | 40.6% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 48% | 22% | 11% | — | — | 18% | 61% | 39% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 44% | 27% | 9% | — | — | 20% | 58% | 42% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 45.9% | 20.8% | 12.1% | 7.1% | — | 14.1% | 61.2% | 38.8% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LNP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LNP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 42.3% | 25.7% | 21.7% | 2.8% | — | 7.5% | 66.1% | 43.9% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 35.5% | 33.2% | 19.1% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 56.1% | 43.9% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 34.1% | 35.1% | 18.5% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 1.4% | 54.3% | 45.7% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 44% | 36% | 16% | — | — | 5% | 59% | 41% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 39% | 35% | 17% | — | — | 9% | 57% | 43% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 37.4% | 33.3% | 20.8% | 3.6% | — | 4.9% | 59.1% | 40.9% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LNP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LNP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 52.8% | 21.1% | 12.4% | 5.5% | 1.4% | 5.8% | 69.2% | 30.8% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 39.9% | 30.5% | 14.3% | 9.3% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 57.7% | 42.3% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 38.1% | 31.5% | 14.2% | 9.1% | 5.7% | 1.5% | 56.2% | 43.8% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 40% | 29% | 17% | — | — | 13% | 59% | 41% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 42% | 32% | 11% | — | — | 14% | 57% | 43% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 45.9% | 28.7% | 14.3% | 5.8% | — | 5.3% | 61.6% | 38.4% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LNP | ALP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | LNP | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 37.9% | 36.4% | 11.8% | 6.7% | — | 7.2% | 48.8% | 51.2% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 40.7% | 30% | 12.3% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 52.7% | 47.3% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 41.3% | 28.6% | 11.4% | 10% | 6.5% | 2.1% | 54.3% | 45.7% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 47% | 33% | 9% | — | — | 11% | 55% | 45% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 47% | 31% | 11% | — | — | 11% | 55% | 45% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 43.5% | 30% | 11.4% | 5.3% | — | 9.8% | 54.4% | 45.6% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LNP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LNP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 49.4% | 19.8% | 10.9% | 6.6% | — | 9.7% | 65.6% | 34.4% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 36.3% | 31.3% | 12.9% | 12.7% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 54.5% | 45.5% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 37% | 31.6% | 12.4% | 12% | 5% | 2.1% | 54.5% | 45.5% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 42% | 31% | 16% | — | — | 11% | 59% | 41% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 40% | 31% | 9% | — | — | 20% | 55% | 45% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 44% | 29% | 10.7% | 8% | — | 8.4% | 59.1% | 40.9% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LNP | GRN | ALP | ONP | IND | OTH | GRN | LNP | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 34.6% | 29.0% | 28.2% | 2.3% | — | 5.9% | 53.3% | 46.7% | — | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 33.5% | 32.3% | 21.1% | 5% | — | 8% | 52% | 48% | — |
Mid-Apr 2025 | DemosAU [o] [39] | — | — | 36% | 29% | 29% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
17 Apr 2025 (released) | JWS Research [p] [40] [41] | c. 800 | — | 45% | 13% | — | — | — | — | — | 57% | 43% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 39% | 33% | 20% | — | — | 8% | 53% | 47% | — |
16 Mar 2025 (released) | Insightfully [r] [45] [46] [47] | 600 | — | 39.6% | 27.4% | 21.9% | — | 7.1% | 3.9% | 51.6% | 48.3% | — |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 37% | 27.1% | 26.5% | 3% | 2.1% | 4.4% | 51.9% | 48.1% | — |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 37.1% | 26.1% | 27.1% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 1.8% | — | 47.6% | 52.4% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 37% | 33% | 21% | — | — | 8% | 54% | 46% | — |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 41% | 27% | 20% | — | — | 12% | 49% | 51% | — |
Feb – May 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] | 4,040 | — | 37% | 26% | 26% | — | — | 11% | 53% | 47% | — |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 38.5% | 30.2% | 22.3% | 2.3% | — | 6.8% | 52.7% | 47.4% | — |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LNP | ALP | ONP | GRN | IND | OTH | LNP | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 39.1% | 26.0% | 12.0% | 8.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 57.6% | 42.4% | ||
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 40.4% | 20.4% | 19.2% | 9% | 8.4% | 2.6% | 60.5% | 39.5% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 43.8% | 20.2% | 13.6% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 1.9% | 60.6% | 39.4% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 49% | 24% | — | 7% | — | 20% | 63% | 37% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 43% | 23% | — | 10% | — | 24% | 60% | 40% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 43.5% | 21.3% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 61.3% | 38.7% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LNP | ALP | ONP | GRN | IND | OTH | LNP | ALP | ONP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 34.1% | 25.4% | 16.3% | 9.5% | — | 14.7% | 58.0% | 41.0% | — | ||
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 41% | 22% | — | 8% | — | 29% | 61% | 39% | — |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 41.4% | 18.3% | 23.3% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 66.1% | — | 33.9% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 46.3% | 20.7% | 18% | 9.6% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 63.2% | 36.8% | — |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 46% | 21% | — | 7% | — | 26% | 64% | 36% | — |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 42% | 19% | — | 11% | — | 28% | 62% | 38% | — |
21 May 2022 | Election | 43.2% | 21.4% | 14.3% | 11.4% | — | 9.8% | 60.9% | 39.1% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 46.5% | 24.2% | 19.0% | 4.0% | — | 6.3% | 69.1% | 30.9% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 41.3% | 26.6% | 19.2% | 5.2% | — | 7.7% | 61.9% | 38.1% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 43% | 29% | 14% | — | — | 14% | 62% | 38% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 38.1% | 31.3% | 18.3% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 58.1% | 41.9% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 33.7% | 32.8% | 19.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 1.6% | 55.7% | 44.3% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 46% | 32% | 14% | — | — | 8% | 53% | 47% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 38% | 32% | 17% | — | — | 13% | 59% | 41% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 40% | 32% | 20.1% | 3% | — | 4.9% | 61.9% | 38.1% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | ALP | GRN | ONP | IND | NAT | OTH | LIB | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 48.3% | 22.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 1.7% | 5.3% | 63.0% | 37.0% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 44.8% | 21.4% | 7.8% | 11.5% | 8.2% | — | 6.3% | 60.7% | 39.3% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 50% | 16% | 8% | — | — | — | 26% | 67% | 33% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 47.3% | 22.6% | 7.2% | 13.5% | 8.4% | — | 1.1% | 61.7% | 38.3% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 49.5% | 19.3% | 8% | 11.9% | 9.9% | — | 1.4% | 64.1% | 35.9% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 47% | 15% | 5% | — | — | — | 33% | 68% | 32% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 50% | 16% | 10% | — | — | — | 23% | 67% | 33% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 53.2% | 20.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 4.7% | 66.6% | 33.4% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | ALP | GRN | IND | ONP | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 42.6% | 32.5% | 17.1% | — | 3.0% | 4.8% | 61.1% | 38.9% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 35% | 32.8% | 15.2% | — | 6% | 11% | 51.9% | 48.1% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 38% | 38% | 14% | — | — | 10% | 55% | 45% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 36.1% | 31.9% | 15.8% | 10% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 52.7% | 47.3% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 38% | 28.9% | 13.2% | 13.2% | 5.6% | 1.2% | 50.6% | 49.4% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 41% | 37% | 14% | — | — | 8% | 53% | 47% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 39% | 36% | 17% | — | — | 7% | 55% | 45% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 38% | 32.3% | 15.2% | 7.5% | 2% | 5% | 53.3% | 46.7% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | ALP | IND | GRN | ONP | OTH | LIB | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 34.9% | 22.5% | 17.5% | 5.9% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 54.6% | 45.4% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 37.5% | 17.7% | 15.4% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 7.8% | 57.2% | 42.8% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 46% | 22% | — | 8% | — | 24% | 60% | 40% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 42.1% | 22% | 12.6% | 7.7% | 13.4% | 2.2% | 58.9% | 41.1% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 42.9% | 19.1% | 15.1% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 59.6% | 40.4% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 46% | 20% | — | 8% | — | 26% | 61% | 39% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 44% | 23% | — | 8% | — | 25% | 59% | 41% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 45.3% | 21.4% | 12.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 60.1% | 39.9% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 48.1% | 23.1% | 13.6% | 5.0% | 1.6% | 8.6% | 66.3% | 33.7% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 41% | 27.3% | 15.1% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 60.4% | 39.6% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 41% | 34% | 14% | — | — | 11% | 58% | 42% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 35.5% | 34% | 13.9% | 8.4% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 53.9% | 46.1% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 34.3% | 35.6% | 13.2% | 7.7% | 7% | 2.3% | 52.4% | 47.6% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 39% | 37% | 14% | — | — | 10% | 53% | 47% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 41% | 37% | 10% | — | — | 12% | 55% | 45% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 42.2% | 32.7% | 13.9% | 3.9% | — | 7.3% | 59% | 41.1% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 53.0% | 18.6% | 13.5% | 6.2% | — | 8.7% | 70.7% | 20.3% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 47.5% | 22.6% | 13% | 10.7% | — | 6.2% | 64.2% | 35.8% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 44% | 28% | 12% | — | — | 16% | 63% | 37% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 40.4% | 28.1% | 13% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 2.1% | 58.9% | 41.1% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 36.8% | 28.8% | 13% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 2% | 56.7% | 43.3% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 44% | 33% | 12% | — | — | 11% | 60% | 40% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 44% | 29% | 12% | — | — | 15% | 62% | 38% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 49.2% | 25.9% | 12.4% | 4.9% | 2.71% | 4.9% | 66.4% | 33.7% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 47.8% | 22.5% | 12.4% | 6.7% | — | 10.6% | 64.7% | 35.3% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 44.4% | 25.6% | 13.2% | 8.8% | — | 7.9% | 61.5% | 38.5% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 42% | 34% | 11% | — | — | 14% | 57% | 43% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 39% | 33.1% | 12% | 9.3% | 3.7% | 3% | 55.3% | 44.7% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 36.1% | 33.8% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 2% | 53.4% | 46.6% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 42% | 33% | 10% | — | — | 15% | 57% | 43% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 39% | 34% | 15% | — | — | 12% | 57% | 43% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 46.3% | 31.4% | 11.4% | 4.7% | — | 6.1% | 60.8% | 39.2% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2CP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OTH | LIB | ALP | GRN | ONP | IND | CA | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 35.4% | 23.6% | 21.4% | 13.6% | 6.0% | — | 64.9% | 35.1% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 44.2% | 21.9% | 15% | 11.4% | 7.5% | — | 69.7% | 30.3% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 37% | 35% | 19% | 9% | — | — | 55% | 45% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 36.5% | 28.8% | 16.3% | 12.7% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 62.1% | 37.9% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 31.5% | 30.5% | 17.2% | 11.7% | 7.2% | 1.9% | 53.4% | 46.6% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 42% | 29% | 20% | 9% | — | — | 59% | 41% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 37% | 35% | 20% | 9% | — | — | 59% | 41% |
Feb – May 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] | 4,040 | — | 31% | 29% | 23% | 17% | — | — | 60% | 40% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 39.4% | 27% | 18.1% | 11.8% | 4.1% | — | 62.3% | 37.7% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 44.3% | 18.7% | 14.5% | 9.5% | 2.5% | 10.5% | 65.3% | 34.7% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 38.5% | 21.1% | 11.9% | 16% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 59.9% | 40.1% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 37% | 22% | 12% | — | — | 29% | 62% | 38% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 38% | 28.6% | 12.5% | 15.5% | 3% | 2.4% | 56.1% | 43.9% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 36.6% | 28.4% | 12.3% | 16.4% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 55.1% | 44.9% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 36% | 29% | 16% | — | — | 19% | 59% | 41% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 35% | 26% | 12% | — | — | 28% | 58% | 42% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 43.9% | 25.6% | 11.4% | 10.9% | — | 8.4% | 62.9% | 37.1% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | ALP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | LIB | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 34.3% | 35.3% | 15.6% | 3.4% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 43.4% | 56.6% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 37.7% | 31.9% | 14% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 49.3% | 50.7% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 39% | 39% | 12% | — | — | 10% | 45% | 55% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 40.3% | 29.5% | 15.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 51.5% | 48.5% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 42.7% | 28.6% | 14.7% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 1.6% | 59.6% | 40.4% |
Between Mar – Dec 2024 | Climate 200 [13] | — | — | 36% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 42% | 33% | 14% | — | — | 11% | 50% | 50% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 41% | 30% | 11% | — | — | 18% | 52% | 48% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 43.1% | 30.7% | 16.4% | 2.6% | — | 7.2% | 50.5% | 49.6% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | ALP | GRN | IND | ONP | OTH | LIB | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 31.4% | 39.6% | 12.9% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 42.0% | 58.0% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 32.6% | 25.2% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 14.8% | 6.5% | 52.2% | 47.8% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 33% | 30% | 11% | — | — | 25% | 47% | 53% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 36.2% | 26.6% | 13.3% | 11% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 51.6% | 48.4% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 36.8% | 27.8% | 12.3% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 52.1% | 47.9% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 44% | 27% | 12% | — | — | 17% | 54% | 46% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 40% | 25% | 13% | — | — | 22% | 52% | 48% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 39.7% | 28.6% | 11.1% | 5% | 4.7% | 10.8% | 51.4% | 48.6% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | ALP | IND | GRN | ONP | OTH | LIB | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 31.7% | 39.5% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 42.8% | 57.2% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 30.5% | 33% | 16.9% | 9.5% | 5% | 5.1% | 57% | 43% |
17–24 Apr 2025 | YouGov [14] [50] | 419 | ±6% | 30.6% | 33.2% | 15.7% | 9.7% | 4.6% | 6.2% [v] | — | — |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 42% | 26% | — | 10% | — | 22% | 54% | 46% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 40.7% | 25.3% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 4.5% | 55.7% | 44.3% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 41.6% | 22.1% | 12.9% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 16.3% | 58.1% | 41.9% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 46% | 22% | — | 7% | — | 25% | 59% | 41% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 43% | 21% | — | 10% | — | 25% | 57% | 43% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 44.1% | 22.5% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 14.5% | 58% | 42% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2CP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IND | ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | OTH | IND | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 48.9% | 20.0% | 13.7% | 13.2% | 4.2% | — | 70.4% | 29.6% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 55.5% | 18.7% | 13.6% | 8.7% | 3.5% | — | 71.9% | 28.1% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | — | 23% | 14% | 11% | — | 51% | 67% | 33% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 43.5% | 21.2% | 16.5% | 14.4% | 4% | 0.3% | 64.8% | 35.2% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 40.1% | 22.8% | 17.9% | 15.4% | 3.3% | 0.4% | 56% | 44% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | — | 27% | 10% | 13% | — | 51% | 68% | 32% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | — | 18% | 22% | 13% | — | 47% | 72% | 28% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 45.5% | 18.8% | 15.9% | 13.5% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 70.8% | 29.2% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | IND | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 39.0% | 18.8% | 10.5% | 5.0% | 26.7% | — | 57.8% | — | 42.2% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 31.9% | 25.5% | 16.8% | 6.9% | 18.9% | — | 58.6% | 41.4% | — |
16 Apr 2025 | Greens candidate Owen Fitzgerald withdraws after discovering dual citizenship [51] | |||||||||||
9–10 Apr 2025 | EMRS [52] [53] | 430 | ±4.71% | 38% | 19% | 13% | — | 20% [w] | — | — | — | — |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 42% | 28% | 13% | — | — | 17% | 64% | 36% | — |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 33.6% | 29.2% | 18.1% | 6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 57.1% | 42.9% | — |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 36.1% | 30.7% | 14.5% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 56% | 44% | — |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 41% | 31% | 18% | — | — | 9% | 63% | 37% | — |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 36% | 29% | 13% | — | — | 22% | 61% | 39% | — |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 36.7% | 26.7% | 17.4% | 2.9% | — | 16.4% | 63.7% | 36.3% | — |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | ALP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 26.2% | 43.1% | 10.9% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 61.6% | 38.4% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 27.8% | 33.4% | 13% | 4.4% | 9.3% | 12.1% | 47.7% | 52.3% |
17–24 Apr 2025 | YouGov [14] [50] [54] | 446 | ±6% | 27.8% | 33.4% | 13.0% | 4.4% | 9.3% | 12.1% [x] | 56% | 44% |
10 Apr 2025 (released) | uComms [f] [55] [56] | 712 | — | 29.5% | 27.2% | 14.6% | 4.1% | — | 5.8% [y] | 50.9% | 49.1% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 37% | 31% | 11% | — | — | 21% | 52% | 48% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 37.7% | 28% | 11.7% | 10% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 47.5% | 52.5% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 38.1% | 26.5% | 10.8% | 12.5% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 45.6% | 54.4% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 42% | 26% | 9% | — | — | 24% | 46% | 54% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 41% | 25% | 9% | — | — | 24% | 46% | 54% |
Feb – May 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] | 4,040 | — | 37% | 28% | 13% | — | — | 23% | 50% | 50% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 37.2% | 29% | 11.4% | 5.4% | — | 17% | 50.9% | 49.1% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | ALP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | LIB | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 37.7% | 37.3% | 11.5% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 46.6% | 53.4% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 39.6% | 29.8% | 11.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 52% | 48% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 42% | 32% | 13% | — | — | 12% | 52% | 48% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 40.7% | 28.2% | 13.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 52.7% | 47.3% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 42.5% | 29% | 12.8% | 7% | 6.8% | 1.9% | 53.7% | 46.3% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 47% | 33% | 11% | — | — | 9% | 54% | 46% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 47% | 30% | 11% | — | — | 11% | 56% | 44% |
1 Apr 2023 | 2023 by-election | 39.1% | 40.9% | 10.1% | — | 7.0% | 2.9% | 46.4% | 53.6% | ||
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 43.1% | 32.6% | 12.1% | 3.1% | — | 9.2% | 52.8% | 47.2% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 42.4% | 28.6% | 14.3% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 60.7% | 39.3% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 43.2% | 26% | 13.2% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 61.6% | 38.4% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 38% | 36% | 12% | — | — | 14% | 54% | 46% |
17–24 Apr 2025 | YouGov [14] | 217 | ±6% | 38.5% | 23.8% | 17.7% | 9.8% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 62% | 38% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 38.4% | 28.2% | 14.6% | 9.9% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 58.3% | 41.7% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 35% | 29.2% | 15.5% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 56.4% | 43.6% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 44% | 35% | 7% | — | — | 13% | 56% | 44% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 37% | 33% | 17% | — | — | 12% | 57% | 43% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 44.7% | 27.1% | 14.6% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 7.9% | 63% | 37% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | NAT | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 33.6% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 4.9% | 1.1% | 38.6% | 51.4% | — | 49.6% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 39.8% | 24.5% | 14.8% | 9.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 60.9% | 39.1% | — |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 38% | 30% | 12% | — | — | 20% | 56% | 44% | — |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 36.5% | 28.5% | 13.5% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 2% | 57.1% | 42.9% | — |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 34.3% | 30.1% | 13.2% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 2.6% | 54.8% | 45.2% | — |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 40% | 34% | 12% | — | — | 14% | 57% | 43% | — |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 37% | 33% | 12% | — | — | 18% | 55% | 45% | — |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 43% | 26.6% | 14.1% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 62.1% | 37.9% | — |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 45.3% | 23.0% | 12.1% | 8.2% | — | 12.4% | 64.6% | 35.4% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 37.9% | 29.6% | 11.1% | 10.6% | — | 10.8% | 55.2% | 44.8% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 37% | 41% | 11% | — | — | 11% | 51% | 49% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 34.1% | 34.5% | 12.8% | 9% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 52.4% | 47.6% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 34.1% | 35.2% | 11.9% | 8.9% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 51.7% | 48.3% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 39% | 38% | 10% | — | — | 12% | 52% | 48% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 38% | 38% | 10% | — | — | 14% | 51% | 49% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 41.5% | 30.3% | 9.7% | 4.8% | — | 13.8% | 56.6% | 43.4% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | IND | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 30.5% | 15.7% | 8.3% | 3.8% | 35.9% | 5.8% | 55.1% | — | 44.9% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 37.2% | 22.1% | 12% | 12% | 2.5% | 14.2% | 58.5% | 41.5% | — |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 38% | 29% | 11% | — | — | 21% | 57% | 43% | — |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 34.6% | 28.6% | 14.5% | 12.6% | 3.7% | 6% | 55.4% | 44.6% | — |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 37.7% | 27.2% | 15.1% | 11.2% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 57.9% | 42.1% | — |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 40% | 31% | 12% | — | — | 17% | 57% | 43% | — |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 37% | 28% | 16% | — | — | 19% | 58% | 42% | — |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 44.9% | 23.7% | 9.7% | 7% | — | 14.7% | 62.4% | 37.6% | — |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | ALP | GRN | IND | ONP | OTH | LIB | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 40.9% | 24.3% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 5.1% | 8.3% | 52.9% | 47.1% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 35.3% | 22% | 14% | 12% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 52.7% | 47.3% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 37% | 29% | 10% | — | — | 24% | 51% | 49% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 35.2% | 22% | 13.7% | 15.5% | 9.1% | 4.6% | 52.6% | 47.4% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 39.2% | 22.7% | 14.9% | 12.5% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 54.2% | 45.8% |
Between Mar – Dec 2024 | Climate 200 [13] | — | — | 38% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 39% | 28% | 14% | — | — | 19% | 51% | 49% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 38% | 28% | 16% | — | — | 18% | 49% | 51% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 36.5% | 24.9% | 12.9% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 14.1% | 51.5% | 48.5% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | IND | ONP | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 38.7% | 37.3% | 12.5% | 5.9% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 55.7% | 44.3% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 32.6% | 35% | 16.4% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 53.1% | 46.9% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 32% | 47% | 12% | — | — | 9% | 47% | 53% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 30.9% | 38.3% | 14.8% | 8.7% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 50.7% | 49.3% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 29.9% | 41.8% | 13.4% | 8.8% | 4% | 2.1% | 48% | 52% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 33% | 41% | 13% | — | — | 12% | 50% | 50% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 36% | 43% | 9% | — | — | 12% | 49% | 51% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 40.1% | 36.3% | 12.6% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 7.2% | 56.4% | 43.6% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | GRN | LIB | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | GRN | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 42.0% | 25.2% | 15.1% | 5.3% | — | 12.4% | 59.7% | 40.3% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 41.4% | 26% | 18% | 6.1% | — | 8.5% | 60.2% | 39.8% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 45% | 21% | 20% | — | — | 14% | 65% | 35% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 34.4% | 27.7% | 20.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 56% | 44% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 39.2% | 26.9% | 21.8% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 57.7% | 42.3% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 43% | 25% | 23% | — | — | 9% | 62% | 38% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 40% | 29% | 20% | — | — | 11% | 58% | 42% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 41.3% | 27.4% | 16.4% | 3% | — | 12% | 58.7% | 41.3% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 37.3% | 34.1% | 14.4% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 58.0% | 42.0% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 38.1% | 30.2% | 14.3% | 5.9% | 5% | 6.5% | 57.5% | 42.5% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 35% | 40% | 14% | — | — | 11% | 53% | 47% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 35.5% | 34% | 15.9% | 6% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 54.9% | 45.1% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 34.2% | 35.7% | 13.4% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 52.4% | 47.6% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 34% | 38% | 10% | — | — | 18% | 51% | 49% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 33% | 38% | 15% | — | — | 14% | 53% | 47% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 38.2% | 34.1% | 15.2% | 2.5% | — | 9.9% | 57.6% | 42.4% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 42.8% | 24.9% | 15.9% | 9.9% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 63.2% | 36.8% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 38.2% | 25.4% | 17.8% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 60.2% | 39.8% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 42% | 26% | 14% | — | — | 17% | 62% | 38% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 35.1% | 28.2% | 16% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 57.5% | 42.5% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 36.9% | 29.2% | 14.5% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 56.9% | 43.1% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 43% | 23% | 25% | — | — | 9% | 57% | 43% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 40% | 29% | 9% | — | — | 22% | 58% | 42% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 42.1% | 24.6% | 14.9% | 3.9% | — | 14.5% | 62.8% | 37.2% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | ALP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | LIB | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 38.7% | 34.8% | 11.9% | 2.6% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 47.2% | 52.8% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 37.9% | 32.5% | 11.5% | 5.3% | 8.9% | 3.9% | 49.3% | 50.7% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 43% | 33% | 11% | — | — | 13% | 52% | 48% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 38.3% | 29.3% | 15.7% | 4.9% | 8.1% | 3.6% | 50% | 50% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 40.5% | 30.3% | 13.8% | 5.8% | 8% | 1.7% | 51.5% | 48.5% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 45% | 33% | 10% | — | — | 11% | 53% | 47% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 46% | 31% | 14% | — | — | 9% | 53% | 47% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 41.5% | 32.8% | 13.9% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 8.3% | 50.2% | 49.8% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | IND | ONP | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 38.3% | 32.3% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 57.1% | 42.9% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 39.2% | 29.6% | 12.9% | 4% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 57.5% | 42.5% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 36% | 34% | 12% | — | — | 19% | 54% | 46% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 32.9% | 32.7% | 13.6% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 53.6% | 46.4% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 35.1% | 32.1% | 11.9% | 6.5% | 10.1% | 4.2% | 53.6% | 46.4% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 37% | 37% | 10% | — | — | 15% | 52% | 48% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 38% | 36% | 9% | — | — | 18% | 53% | 47% |
2 Mar 2024 | 2024 by-election | 41.1% | 39.2% | 6.4% | 4.7% | — | 8.6% | 52.7% | 47.3% | ||
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 40.2% | 32.5% | 10.3% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 10.3% | 56.3% | 43.7% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | ALP | IND | GRN | ONP | OTH | LIB | ALP | IND | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 41.2% | 22.3% | 22.1% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 52.3% | — | 47.7% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 38.1% | 20.5% | 19.1% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 54.9% | 45.1% | — |
21 Apr 2025 | Trumpet of Patriots candidate Jason Smart withdraws and endorses One Nation [57] | |||||||||||
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 43% | 24% | — | 8% | — | 24% | 55% | 45% | — |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 40.4% | 22.2% | 14.5% | 11.4% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 55.8% | 44.2% | — |
Late Feb 2025 | Climate 200 [12] | — | ±3% | 38% | — | — | — | — | — | 51% | — | 49% |
Between Mar – Dec 2024 | Climate 200 [13] | — | — | 40% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 43.2% | 21.6% | 15.3% | 10.2% | 7% | 2.8% | 57.7% | 42.3% | — |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 48% | 25% | — | 8% | — | 19% | 58% | 42% | — |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 46% | 26% | — | 9% | — | 19% | 56% | 44% | — |
Feb – May 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] | 4,040 | — | 41% | 24% | — | 10% | — | 25% | 58% | 42% | — |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 43.5% | 21.7% | 12.5% | 9.4% | 3.4% | 9.5% | 56.7% | 43.3% | — |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | |||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 42.6% | 16.9% | 25.3% | 4.8% | — | 10.4% | 59.2% | — | 40.8% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 41.1% | 20.8% | 17.8% | 8.2% | — | 12% | 63.3% | 36.7% | |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 41% | 24% | 15% | — | — | 19% | 65% | 35% | |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 38% | 27.2% | 19.8% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 60.6% | 39.4% | |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 39.2% | 27% | 19.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 3% | 61.3% | 38.7% | |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 37% | 28% | 23% | — | — | 12% | 64% | 36% | |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 36% | 26% | 22% | — | — | 16% | 64% | 36% | |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 42.1% | 24.7% | 18.5% | 2.9% | — | 11.8% | 66.5% | 33.5% | — |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 46.6% | 26.2% | 17.0% | 6.0% | — | 4.2% | 65.1% | 44.9% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 46.6% | 26% | 12.7% | 8.8% | — | 5.9% | 62.3% | 37.7% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 40% | 31% | 17% | — | — | 12% | 58% | 42% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 36.9% | 29.9% | 16.4% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 57.6% | 42.4% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 37.4% | 30.3% | 17.4% | 6.9% | 5% | 3% | 57.8% | 42.2% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 38% | 31% | 11% | — | — | 20% | 55% | 45% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 42% | 34% | 13% | — | — | 11% | 57% | 43% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 42.7% | 27% | 16.5% | 3% | — | 10.7% | 61.5% | 38.5% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NAT | ALP | ONP | GRN | IND | OTH | NAT | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 52.5% | 21.3% | 14.4% | 8.5% | — | 3.3% | 69.4% | 30.6% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 45.5% | 24.2% | 13.9% | 7% | — | 9.4% | 61.5% | 38.5% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 38% | 16% | — | 6% | — | 40% | 71% | 29% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 48.7% | 21.5% | 12.5% | 9.8% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 62.4% | 37.6% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 49.2% | 20.8% | 14.6% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 1.2% | 64.1% | 35.9% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 45% | 14% | — | 7% | — | 34% | 74% | 26% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 48% | 13% | — | 7% | — | 33% | 76% | 24% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 54.1% | 19.2% | 9.4% | 8.5% | — | 8.8% | 70.6% | 29.4% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2CP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | IND | ALP | GRN | ONP | OTH | IND | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 43.4% | 30.7% | 13.7% | 7.2% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 49.9% | 50.1% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 29.4% | 47.5% | 12.3% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 63.5% | 36.5% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 37% | — | 12% | 6% | — | 45% | 51% | 49% |
18–25 Mar 2025 | uComms [m] [58] [59] [60] | 1,225 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.9% | — | 54% | 46% |
12–13 Mar 2025 | JWS Research [p] [61] [62] [63] | 800 | — | 44% | 24% | 21% | 5% | — | 6% | 46% | 54% |
5–7 Mar 2025 | Freshwater Strategy [h] [23] [24] | 830 | — | 41% | 33% | 7% | 7% | — | 12% | Loss | Win |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 36.1% | 34.6% | 16.8% | 9.8% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 54.5% | 45.5% |
12–25 Feb 2025 | uComms [58] | 979 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 52% | 48% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 36.8% | 32.6% | 17% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 54.3% | 45.7% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 44% | — | 11% | 7% | — | 37% | 52% | 48% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 49% | — | 17% | 6% | — | 29% | 47% | 53% |
Feb–May 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] | 4,040 | — | 38% | — | 14% | 9% | — | 38% | 53% | 47% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 40.4% | 34.5% | 11% | 7.8% | 1.3% | 5% | 52.9% | 47.1% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 43.0% | 29.2% | 10.8% | 6.3% | — | 10.7% | 60.3% | 39.7% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 37.8% | 27.8% | 12.5% | 11.8% | — | 10.2% | 56.2% | 43.8% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 42% | 29% | 16% | — | — | 13% | 62% | 38% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 33.4% | 33.4% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 52.2% | 47.8% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 34.6% | 35.8% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 51.5% | 48.5% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 40% | 33% | 10% | — | — | 17% | 57% | 43% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 41% | 34% | 9% | — | — | 16% | 56% | 44% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 41.3% | 27.4% | 9% | 7.3% | 2.5% | 12.5% | 60.0% | 40.0% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | IND | ONP | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 39.1% | 30.2% | 9.8% | — | 9.7% | 11.2% | 57.6% | 42.4% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 36.4% | 29.8% | 11.5% | — | 12.7% | 9.5% | 54.1% | 45.9% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 31% | 39% | 13% | — | — | 18% | 50% | 50% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 30.2% | 31.1% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 4.2% | 51.9% | 48.1% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 30.8% | 32.2% | 11.8% | 9.1% | 12.6% | 3.5% | 51.2% | 48.8% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 31% | 36% | 8% | — | — | 24% | 50% | 50% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 39% | 31% | 11% | — | — | 18% | 57% | 43% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 36.7% | 26.3% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 14.5% | 57.6% | 42.4% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 45.0% | 25.1% | 11.2% | 8.7% | — | 10.0% | 64.0% | 36.0% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 38.1% | 30.2% | 12.2% | 12.1% | — | 7.4% | 55.1% | 44.9% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 36% | 38% | 13% | — | — | 13% | 52% | 48% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 33.6% | 32% | 13.4% | 11.5% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 53.3% | 46.7% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 35.8% | 31.1% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 54.4% | 45.6% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 35% | 37% | 14% | — | — | 14% | 52% | 48% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 36% | 33% | 14% | — | — | 17% | 55% | 45% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 40.9% | 29.6% | 8.5% | 4.8% | 3% | 13.2% | 57.1% | 42.9% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 48.8% | 25.7% | 14.9% | 4.7% | — | 5.9% | 66.9% | 33.1% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 46.5% | 24.7% | 13.9% | 6.3% | — | 8.6% | 63.6% | 36.4% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 43% | 33% | 14% | — | — | 10% | 60% | 40% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 36.4% | 31.7% | 16.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 56.7% | 43.3% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 37.4% | 32.7% | 15% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 3% | 56.2% | 43.8% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 42% | 35% | 14% | — | — | 8% | 59% | 41% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 43% | 36% | 12% | — | — | 9% | 57% | 43% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 47% | 25.2% | 12.4% | 2.9% | — | 12.4% | 64.3% | 35.8% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IND | LIB | ALP | ONP | NAT | GRN | OTH | IND | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 43.7% | 30.7% | 8.4% | 7.2% | — | 3.6% | 6.4% | 58.6% | 41.4% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 53.2% | 26.2% | 8.2% | 6.7% | — | 4.5% | 1.2% | 66.1% | 33.9% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | — | 33% | 10% | — | — | 4% | 53% | 59% | 41% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 42.5% | 32.5% | 11.5% | 6.8% | — | 6.3% | 0.5% | 58.6% | 41.4% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 37.4% | 34.7% | 12.7% | 6.5% | — | 7.9% | 0.7% | 56.2% | 43.8% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | — | 37% | 8% | — | — | 3% | 52% | 61% | 39% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | — | 32% | 9% | — | — | 5% | 54% | 65% | 35% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 40.7% | 30.5% | 8.6% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 7.6% | 58.9% | 41.1% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 49.4% | 28.3% | 14.1% | 4.6% | — | 3.6% | 64.3% | 35.7% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 42.7% | 27.9% | 14% | 7.3% | — | 8.1% | 60% | 40% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 43% | 33% | 11% | — | — | 13% | 58% | 42% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 36.5% | 31.6% | 14.5% | 6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 56.3% | 43.7% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 37.7% | 33.1% | 13.1% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 55.3% | 44.7% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 43% | 38% | 11% | — | — | 8% | 56% | 44% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 40% | 34% | 10% | — | — | 15% | 55% | 45% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 40% | 31.9% | 12.9% | 3.2% | — | 12.1% | 56.9% | 43.2% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | IND | ONP | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 42.6% | 29.4% | 15.6% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 62.9% | 37.1% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 38.8% | 27.2% | 17.6% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 60.8% | 39.2% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 43% | 32% | 13% | — | — | 12% | 61% | 39% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 37% | 30.2% | 16.9% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 58.2:% | 41.8% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 36.1% | 32% | 15.2% | 8% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 56.2% | 43.8% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 41% | 37% | 12% | — | — | 10% | 56% | 44% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 40% | 35% | 16% | — | — | 9% | 59% | 41% |
Feb – May 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] | 4,040 | — | 39% | 33% | 18% | — | — | 10% | 61% | 39% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 40.9% | 29.2% | 16.7% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 7.9% | 62.4% | 37.7% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2CP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | IND | ALP | GRN | ONP | OTH | IND | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 43.1% | 33.9% | 11.9% | 7.8% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 50.7% | 49.3% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 32.8% | 43.3% | 12.7% | 8.1% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 60.1% | 39.9% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 40% | — | 12% | 9% | — | 38% | 48% | 52% |
12–13 March 2025 | JWS Research [p] [61] [62] [63] | 800 | — | 40% | 32% | 11% | 9% | — | 8% | 51% | 49% |
5–7 Mar 2025 | Freshwater Strategy [h] [23] [24] | 830 | — | 41% | 33% | 7% | 7% | — | 12% | Loss | Win |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 39% | 30.1% | 16.9% | 11.6% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 51.2% | 48.8% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 38.7% | 29.4% | 16.5% | 12.2% | 2.7% | 0.4% | 52.4% | 47.6% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 42% | — | 11% | 9% | — | 37% | 53% | 47% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 43% | — | 12% | 4% | — | 41% | 53% | 47% |
Feb – May 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] | 4,040 | — | 39% | — | 10% | 7% | — | 43% | 52% | 48% |
5 Feb 2024 | uComms [i] [25] | 647 | ±3.9% | 36.8% | 32.5% | 12.1% | 6.8% | — | 2% | 56% | 44% |
Mid-Aug 2023 | KJC Research [64] | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 46.5% | 53.5% |
24–25 Jul 2023 | uComms [i] [65] [66] | 821 | ±3.4% | 40.3% | 31.6% | 12.4% | 5.6% | — | 2.9% | 51% | 49% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 42.7% | 40.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 0.7% | 3.1% | 52.9% | 47.1% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | ALP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | LIB | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 39.1% | 32.1% | 12.9% | 7.7% | — | 7.2% | 52.1% | 47.9% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 42.9% | 28.2% | 10.8% | 10.3% | — | 7.8% | 56.3% | 43.7% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 45% | 26% | 11% | — | — | 18% | 58% | 42% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 41.8% | 25.5% | 13.1% | 9.8% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 55.5% | 44.5% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 42.1% | 26.8% | 12.8% | 11.1% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 55.6% | 44.4% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 42% | 24% | 9% | — | — | 25% | 60% | 40% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 45% | 24% | 7% | — | — | 24% | 61% | 39% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 45.6% | 26.1% | 10.9% | 5% | — | 12.5% | 58.7% | 41.3% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 43.6% | 26.1% | 15.3% | 7.0% | 2.1% | 5.9% | 63.2% | 36.8% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 40.2% | 26% | 13.6% | 9.7% | 2.6% | 8% | 59.5% | 40.5% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 35% | 33% | 12% | — | — | 20% | 55% | 45% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 34.3% | 29.4% | 14.5% | 9.5% | 7% | 5.3% | 55.8% | 44.2% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 37.1% | 29.1% | 13.8% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 56.9% | 43.1% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 40% | 32% | 13% | — | — | 14% | 58% | 42% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 42% | 31% | 13% | — | — | 13% | 60% | 40% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 44.1% | 25% | 10.4% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 13.7% | 62.8% | 37.2% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | GRN | LIB | IND | ONP | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 36.1% | 25.5% | 32.5% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 61.8% | 38.2% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 31.1% | 26.7% | 27.4% | 4.7% | 5% | 5.1% | 58% | 42% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 35% | 20% | 32% | — | — | 12% | 58% | 42% |
16 Mar 2025 (released) | Insightfully [r] [45] [46] [67] | 600 | — | 25.9% | 27.9% | 37.6% | — | — | — | — | — |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 33.9% | 25.4% | 28.1% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 60% | 40% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 31.6% | 29.7% | 27.6% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 58.3% | 41.7% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 35% | 35% | 21% | — | — | 9% | 58% | 42% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 36% | 32% | 22% | — | — | 10% | 60% | 40% |
13–20 Jun 2024 | RedBridge [68] | 401 | ±5.9% | 30% | 21% | 36% | — | — | 13% | 55% | 45% |
Feb – May 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [11] | 4,040 | — | 33% | 24% | 34% | — | — | 9% | 59% | 41% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 31.8% | 29.7% | 29% | 2% | 1.5% | 6.2% | 62.3% | 37.8% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NAT | ALP | IND | ONP | GRN | OTH | NAT | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 49.7% | 19.1% | — | 11.0% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 69.0% | 31.0% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 46.6% | 19% | — | 16% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 64.6% | 35.4% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 44% | 19% | — | — | 6% | 30% | 65% | 35% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 44.7% | 18.1% | 13.5% | 14.5% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 62.7% | 37.3% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 47.3% | 15.4% | 14.8% | 12.8% | 7.7% | 2.1% | 64.2% | 35.8% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 46% | 18% | — | — | 6% | 30% | 67% | 33% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 45% | 16% | — | — | 6% | 33% | 67% | 33% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 49.1% | 16.8% | 12.2% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 9.9% | 69% | 31% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 41.4% | 30.5% | 21.2% | 6.9% | — | — | 62.6% | 37.4% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 47.3% | 28.1% | 16.9% | 7.6% | — | — | 63.5% | 36.5% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 43% | 28% | 17% | — | — | 12% | 63% | 37% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 36.2% | 30.5% | 16.7% | 5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 57.4% | 42.6% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 36.6% | 31.9% | 16.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 56.6% | 43.4% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 39% | 30% | 14% | — | — | 18% | 58% | 42% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 44% | 33% | 13% | — | — | 10% | 60% | 40% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 42.4% | 27.1% | 16.3% | 2.4% | — | 11.9% | 62.5% | 37.6% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 37.3% | 32.5% | 11.1% | 6.6% | — | 12.5% | 54.8% | 45.2% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 32.5% | 30% | 14.8% | 11.3% | — | 11.4% | 53.2% | 46.8% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 34% | 36% | 13% | — | — | 17% | 50% | 50% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 30.6% | 35% | 13.8% | 11.1% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 50.5% | 49.5% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 31.8% | 37.3% | 13.4% | 10.2% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 49.7% | 50.3% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 32% | 40% | 16% | — | — | 13% | 49% | 51% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 34% | 39% | 13% | — | — | 14% | 49% | 51% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 36.8% | 33.2% | 14.1% | 5.6% | — | 10.2% | 53.3% | 46.7% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GRN | ALP | LIB | IND | ONP | OTH | GRN | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 39.5% | 31.3% | 19.8% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 47.0% | 53.0% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 43.1% | 28.2% | 15.6% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 56.1% | 43.9% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 43% | 22% | 21% | — | — | 14% | 57% | 43% |
16 Mar 2025 (released) | Insightfully [r] [45] [46] [47] | 600 | — | 50.1% | 19.2% | 21.6% | — | — | 9.1% | — | — |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 41.3% | 30.9% | 19.4% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 52.7% | 47.3% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 42.2% | 29.8% | 18.8% | 4% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 55% | 45% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 27% | 21% | 44% | — | — | 7% | 55% | 45% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 44% | 22% | 22% | — | — | 12% | 57% | 43% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 49.6% | 25% | 15.2% | 1.1% | 1% | 8.1% | 60.2% | 39.9% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | ALP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | LIB | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 40.6% | 34.7% | 11.0% | 2.0% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 48.9% | 51.1% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 36.3% | 30.5% | 12.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 9.7% | 49.7% | 50.3% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 47% | 33% | 12% | — | — | 7% | 53% | 47% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 40.4% | 27.6% | 14% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 52.6% | 47.4% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 43.8% | 27.5% | 13.3% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 3.3% | 54.5% | 45.5% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 47% | 31% | 15% | — | — | 6% | 53% | 47% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 46% | 33% | 12% | — | — | 9% | 53% | 47% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 42.1% | 33.3% | 14.1% | 2.3% | — | 8.2% | 50.7% | 49.3% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | ALP | IND | GRN | ONP | OTH | LIB | ALP | IND | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 31.8% | 20.3% | 27.3% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 54.1% | 45.9% | — | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 29.4% | 20.1% | 24.9% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 45.9% | — | 54.1% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 32% | 20% | — | 6% | — | 42% | 48% | — | 52% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 36.4% | 22.3% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 15.5% | 2.4% | 55.3% | 44.7% | — |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 39.1% | 22.3% | 14.2% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 1.7% | 56% | 44% | — |
Between Mar–Dec 2024 | Climate 200 [13] | — | — | 26% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 44% | 26% | — | 8% | — | 22% | 57% | 43% | — |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 39% | 25% | — | 9% | — | 28% | 54% | 46% | — |
14 Nov 2023 | Russell Broadbent resigns from the Liberal Party to sit as an independent [69] | |||||||||||
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 37.8% | 25.6% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 52.9% | 47.1% | — |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NAT | IND | LIB | ALP | ONP | GRN | OTH | NAT | IND | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 46.3% | — | — | 24.2% | 11.5% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 64.4% | — | 35.6% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 53.1% | — | — | 21% | 14% | 7.6% | 4.3% | 66.4% | — | 33.6% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 42% | — | — | 19% | — | 6% | 33% | 55% | 45% | — |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 41.9% | 22.7% | — | 15.7% | 12.3% | 6.2% | 1.3% | 55.2% | 44.8% | — |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 42.6% | 23.1% | — | 14.4% | 12.2% | 6.4% | 1.2% | 55.4% | 44.6% | — |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 44% | — | — | 18% | — | 5% | 33% | 53% | 47% | — |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 44% | — | — | 23% | — | 5% | 28% | 54% | 46% | — |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 26.1% | 25.5% | 18.1% | 11.5% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 9% | 53.8% | 46.2% | — |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 44.9% | 20.5% | 9.4% | 6.6% | — | 18.6% | 64.3% | 35.7% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 41.7% | 20.8% | 14% | 11.3% | — | 12.2% | 62.1% | 37.9% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 46% | 25% | 13% | — | — | 17% | 65% | 35% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 36.4% | 28.8% | 13.4% | 9.9% | 4.1% | 7.4% | 56.4% | 43.6% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 35.8% | 29.7% | 14.8% | 9.2% | 5% | 5.6% | 56.1% | 43.9% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 44% | 31% | 13% | — | — | 11% | 61% | 39% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 42% | 27% | 9% | — | — | 22% | 59% | 41% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 46.3% | 21.7% | 10.9% | 6.5% | — | 14.6% | 65.6% | 34.4% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2CP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | IND | ALP | GRN | ONP | OTH | LIB | IND | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 43.6% | 31.4% | 10.6% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 53.3% | 46.7% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 29.7% | 46.1% | 12% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 38.1% | 61.9% |
17–24 Apr 2025 | YouGov [14] [15] | — | ±6% | 33.2% | 35.7% | 12.2% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% [z] | 43% | 57% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 45% | — | 22% | 7% | — | 27% | 54% | 46% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 37.7% | 28.7% | 18.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 0.6% | 49.4% | 50.6% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 41.4% | 25.3% | 18% | 8% | 6.6% | 0.8% | 52.1% | 47.9% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 48% | — | 24% | 6% | — | 21% | 55% | 45% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 44% | — | 24% | 7% | — | 26% | 51% | 49% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 44.5% | 19.3% | 19.1% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 7.5% | 53.9% | 46.1% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | GRN | LIB | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | GRN | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 35.6% | 35.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | — | 12.6% | 51.4% | 48.6% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 36.5% | 29.8% | 17.2% | 5.2% | — | 11.2% | 55.5% | 44.5% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 47% | 22% | 22% | — | — | 9% | 66% | 33% |
16 Mar 2025 (released) | Insightfully [r] [45] [46] [47] | 600 | — | — | 33.1% | — | — | — | — | 53.7% | 46.3% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 32.9% | 29.9% | 20.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 7% | 53.9% | 46.1% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 35% | 30.8% | 22.7% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 53.8% | 46.2% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 41% | 21% | 25% | — | — | 12% | 62% | 38% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 44% | 22% | 22% | — | — | 12% | 65% | 35% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 38.9% | 28.3% | 17.3% | 2.8% | — | 12.8% | 58.6% | 41.4% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 45.9% | 19.7% | 13.2% | 12.7% | — | 8.5% | 66.9% | 33.1% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 46.9% | 20.4% | 16% | 10.7% | — | 6% | 65.9% | 34.1% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 42% | 26% | 15% | — | — | 17% | 62% | 38% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 43.8% | 25.7% | 12.2% | 9.5% | 4% | 4.9% | 61.4% | 38.6% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 39.1% | 26.7% | 12.6% | 11.5% | 6.1% | 4% | 58.3% | 41.7% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 48% | 30% | 9% | — | — | 14% | 61% | 39% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 44% | 26% | 18% | — | — | 12% | 64% | 36% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 50.2% | 22% | 11.4% | 5.4% | — | 11% | 66.7% | 33.3% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | NAT | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 32.0% | 24.3% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 15.8% | — | 8.1% | 50.5% | 48.5% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 34.9% | 32.2% | 15.5% | 9% | — | — | 8.3% | 54.1% | 45.9% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 33% | 40% | 12% | — | — | — | 15% | 50% | 50% |
17–24 Apr 2025 | YouGov | — | — | 32% | 32% | — | — | 8% | — | 28% | — | — |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 33.7% | 34.8% | 11.9% | 9.1% | — | 6.8% | 3.6% | 52% | 48% |
11–12 Feb 2025 | JWS Research [p] [19] [20] [70] | c. 830 | — | 15% | 41% | — | — | 22% | — | — | — | — |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 30.5% | 37.2% | 12.2% | 9.1% | — | 8.1% | 2.9% | 49.2% | 50.8% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 32% | 40% | 8% | — | — | — | 20% | 47% | 53% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 34% | 38% | 11% | — | — | — | 18% | 50% | 50% |
21 Aug 2024 (released) | Unnamed [aa] [71] | 800 | — | 23% | 12% | 10% | — | 20% | 10% | — | — | — |
31 May 2024 | Creation of the Division of Bullwinkel announced [72] |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 46.7% | 19.1% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 2.2% | 10.6% | 65.7% | 34.3% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 45.5% | 21.5% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 1.9% | 8.9% | 63.3% | 36.7% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 48% | 26% | 15% | — | — | 10% | 64% | 36% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 39.5% | 28% | 12.1% | 11% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 57.9% | 42.1% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 37.2% | 28.9% | 13% | 10.9% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 56.4% | 43.6% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 47% | 32% | 12% | — | — | 10% | 60% | 40% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 47% | 30% | 11% | — | — | 12% | 60% | 40% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 51.6% | 23% | 9.8% | 4.9% | — | 10.7% | 65.2% | 34.8% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | ALP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | LIB | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 42.5% | 29.9% | 8.9% | 11.4% | — | 7.3% | 56.6% | 43.4% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 36.6% | 32.7% | 13.1% | 10.6% | — | 7% | 50.2% | 49.8% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 44% | 27% | 10% | — | — | 19% | 56% | 44% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 39.2% | 32.2% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 51.6% | 48.4% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 41.6% | 25.6% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 3.1% | 55.9% | 44.1% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 41% | 24% | 7% | — | — | 28% | 57% | 43% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 44% | 30% | 9% | — | — | 17% | 55% | 45% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 43.8% | 32.8% | 8.1% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 9% | 53.6% | 46.4% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 46.6% | 24.2% | 10.8% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 9.8% | 63.6% | 36.4% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 39.7% | 25.2% | 12% | 10.3% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 59.4% | 40.6% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 44% | 33% | 15% | — | — | 9% | 60% | 40% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 39.8% | 32.3% | 11.4% | 8.3% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 56.1% | 43.9% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 35.8% | 32.2% | 13.2% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 54.8% | 45.2% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 43% | 36% | 11% | — | — | 11% | 57% | 43% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 43% | 35% | 10% | — | — | 13% | 57% | 43% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 46.9% | 30.4% | 9.9% | 2.9% | — | 10% | 60.8% | 39.2% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2CP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | IND | ALP | GRN | ONP | OTH | IND | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 40.3% | 32.2% | 14.8% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 53.3% | 46.7% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 34.5% | 33.8% | 16.4% | 10.2% | 4.2% | 1% | 55.7% | 44.3% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 38% | — | 18% | 9% | — | 34% | 53% | 47% |
5–7 Mar 2025 | Freshwater Strategy [h] [23] [24] | 830 | — | 41% | 33% | 7% | 7% | — | 12% | Loss | Win |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 38.2% | 28.4% | 18.5% | 11.8% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 51.2% | 48.8% |
11–12 Feb 2025 | JWS Research [p] [19] [20] [70] | c. 830 | — | 56% | 28% | — | — | — | — | 35% | 65% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 37.4% | 29.4% | 17.6% | 12.4% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 53.4% | 46.6% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 39% | — | 19% | 12% | — | 31% | 49% | 51% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 46% | — | 23% | 8% | — | 22% | 47% | 53% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 41.3% | 29.5% | 14.0% | 10.4% | 1.3% | 3.7% | 51.3% | 48.7% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | ALP | NAT | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | LIB | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 32.9% | 23.4% | 13.6% | 8.2% | 10.1% | — | 11.8% | 60.2% | 39.85 | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 39.3% | 28.7% | — | 10.4% | 13.3% | — | 8.3% | 54.9% | 45.1% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 43% | 23% | — | 9% | — | — | 24% | 58% | 42% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 40.9% | 27.4% | — | 10.5% | 12.8% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 55.4% | 44.6% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 40.8% | 27.2% | — | 11.8% | 12.4% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 55.2% | 44.8% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 44% | 21% | — | 6% | — | — | 28% | 62% | 38% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 46% | 23% | — | 7% | — | — | 23% | 61% | 39% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 34.3% | 29.2% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 6.9% | — | 9.9% | 54.3% | 45.7% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | ALP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | LIB | ALP | IND | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 31.2% | 22.5% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 18.3% | 11.4% | 52.2% | 47.8% | — | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 36.1% | 21.4% | 12.3% | 8.8% | 13.2% | 8.2% | 53.9% | 46.1% | — |
9–10 Apr 2025 | uComms [49] [73] | c. 1,000 | — | 34% | — | — | — | 20% | — | 49% | — | 51% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 42% | 26% | 9% | — | — | 23% | 56% | 44% | — |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 40.8% | 28.1% | 12.4% | 9.2% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 53.8% | 46.2% | — |
Late Feb 2025 | Climate 200 [12] | — | ±3% | 37% | — | — | — | — | — | 51% | — | 49% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 43.2% | 25.3% | 13% | 8.9% | 7% | 2.7% | 56.2% | — | 43.8% |
Between Mar–Dec 2024 | Climate 200 [13] | — | — | 38% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 44% | 25% | 9% | — | — | 22% | 58% | 42% | — |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 45% | 25% | 14% | — | — | 17% | 56% | 44% | — |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 43.1% | 27.4% | 13.4% | 5.3% | — | 10.7% | 54.3% | 45.7% | — |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | IND | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 38.6% | 18.9% | 11.6% | 6.1% | 23.0% | 1.8% | 50.7% | — | 49.3% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 37.6% | 22.1% | 16.9% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 5.8% | 62.2% | 37.8% | — |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 49% | 24% | 13% | — | — | 14% | 68% | 32% | — |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 37% | 27.8% | 17.4% | 7% | 5.8% | 5% | 59.1% | 40.9% | — |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 36.4% | 29.5% | 17.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 57.9% | 42.1% | — |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 44% | 29% | 18% | — | — | 9% | 65% | 35% | — |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 45% | 27% | 17% | — | — | 12% | 65% | 35% | — |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 44% | 24.2% | 18.1% | 3.1% | — | 10.6% | 66.9% | 33.1% | — |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 48.3% | 22.1% | 12.5% | 7.4% | — | 9.7% | 66.0% | 34.0% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 43% | 28.3% | 14.1% | 8% | — | 6.6% | 60% | 40% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 41% | 35% | 13% | — | — | 10% | 57% | 43% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 38.9% | 32.3% | 11.8% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 55.9% | 44.1% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 32.8% | 34.3% | 13.5% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 52.4% | 47.6% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 41% | 37% | 11% | — | — | 11% | 55% | 45% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 43% | 35% | 10% | — | — | 13% | 57% | 43% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 39.7% | 33.4% | 11% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 8.7% | 56.0% | 44.0% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | ALP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | LIB | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 31.5% | 32.5% | 11.1% | 4.5% | 16.3% | 4.1% | 47.1% | 52.9% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 36.9% | 30.4% | 13.3% | 7.6% | 5% | 6.8% | 50.3% | 49.7% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 45% | 33% | 10% | — | — | 12% | 54% | 46% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 39.5% | 29.7% | 12.4% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 51.7% | 48.3% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 44.5% | 26.4% | 13.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 55.8% | 44.2% |
1 Jan 2025 | Ian Goodenough resigns from the Liberal Party to sit as an independent [74] | ||||||||||
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 43% | 31% | 11% | — | — | 14% | 53% | 47% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 44% | 32% | 12% | — | — | 12% | 53% | 47% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 41.8% | 32.7% | 14.3% | 3.4% | — | 7.8% | 50.7% | 49.3% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | ALP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | LIB | ALP | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 34.4% | 21.1% | 10.0% | 11.0% | — | 23.5% | 63.3% | 36.7% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 38.2% | 24.9% | 13.6% | 11.2% | — | 12% | 55.1% | 44.9% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 33% | 26% | 6% | — | — | 35% | 54% | 46% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 41.2% | 24.3% | 10.1% | 15.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 57.8% | 42.2% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 43.9% | 23.3% | 12.1% | 11% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 58.3% | 41.7% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 42% | 31% | 8% | — | — | 19% | 54% | 46% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 43% | 22% | 10% | — | — | 25% | 60% | 40% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 44.8% | 26.6% | 10.6% | 7.1% | — | 10.9% | 57% | 43% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 40.1% | 28.5% | 11.9% | 9.2% | — | 10.3% | 56.4% | 43.6% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 37.3% | 28.7% | 13.9% | 11.8% | — | 8.3% | 56% | 44% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 40% | 32% | 15% | — | — | 13% | 58% | 42% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 34.4% | 33% | 12.3% | 10.9% | 4.5% | 5% | 52.9% | 47.1% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 32.7% | 34.8% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 51.1% | 48.9% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 36% | 34% | 15% | — | — | 14% | 55% | 45% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 42% | 33% | 12% | — | — | 13% | 57% | 43% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 42.8% | 29.9% | 11% | 4.5% | — | 11.8% | 59% | 41% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 43.1% | 26.1% | 24.5% | 6.3% | — | — | 66.5% | 33.5% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 41.1% | 25.8% | 22.7% | 10.4% | — | — | 62.6% | 37.4% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 45% | 28% | 12% | — | — | 15% | 63% | 37% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 36.5% | 28.5% | 20.6% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 59.5% | 40.5% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 36.5% | 29.6% | 21% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 58.9% | 41.1% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 44% | 28% | 19% | — | — | 9% | 65% | 35% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 42% | 29% | 18% | — | — | 11% | 63% | 37% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 39.3% | 26.7% | 22.2% | 2.7% | — | 9.2% | 64.8% | 35.2% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 42.6% | 26.9% | 17.5% | 5.2% | — | 7.8% | 64.0% | 36.0% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 39.4% | 28.8% | 16.3% | 8.4% | — | 7.1% | 58.5% | 41.5% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 46% | 30% | 14% | — | — | 10% | 63% | 37% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 36.2% | 32.6% | 15.9% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 55.9% | 44.1% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 33.6% | 33.7% | 16.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 53.9% | 46.1% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 41% | 32% | 14% | — | — | 13% | 59% | 41% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 43% | 34% | 12% | — | — | 10% | 59% | 41% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 39.1% | 32.1% | 14.9% | 2.5% | — | 11.5% | 58.8% | 41.2% |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | ALP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||
3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 34.2% | 42.5% | 13.0% | 4.1% | — | 6.2% | 57.0% | 43.0% | ||
1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [2] [3] | 10,822 | — | 37% | 37.4% | 14.8% | 5.5% | — | 5.3% | 53.5% | 46.5% |
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [4] | 9,953 | — | 39% | 41% | 10% | — | — | 10% | 54% | 46% |
24 Apr 2025 | KJC Research [21] [22] | 600 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 45% | 49% |
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [6] | 10,217 | — | 38.6% | 36.2% | 12.1% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 52.1% | 47.9% |
11–12 Feb 2025 | JWS Research [p] [19] [20] [70] | c. 830 | — | 41% | 35% | — | — | — | — | 44% | 56% |
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP) [8] | 8,732 | — | 42.1% | 31.4% | 11.1% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 52.5% | 47.5% |
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [9] | 4,909 | — | 40% | 38% | 14% | — | — | 8% | 53% | 47% |
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [10] | 5,976 | — | 45% | 38% | 10% | — | — | 7% | 50% | 50% |
21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 40% | 38.1% | 12% | 2.1% | — | 7.9% | 52.4% | 47.6% |