Grey Australian House of Representatives Division | |
---|---|
Created | 1903 |
MP | Rowan Ramsey |
Party | Liberal |
Namesake | Sir George Grey |
Electors | 123,812 (2022) |
Area | 904,881 km2 (349,376.5 sq mi) |
Demographic | Rural |
The Division of Grey is an Australian electoral division in South Australia. The division was one of the seven established when the former Division of South Australia was redistributed on 2 October 1903 and is named for Sir George Grey, who was Governor of South Australia from 1841 to 1845 (and later Prime Minister of New Zealand).
The division covers the vast northern outback of South Australia. Highlighting South Australia's status as the most centralised state in Australia, Grey spans 904,881 square kilometres (349,377 sq mi), over 92 percent of the state. The borders of the electorate include Western Australia, the Northern Territory, Queensland and New South Wales borders, in addition to much of the southern coastal border. The electorate spans to Marion Bay and Eudunda in the south. The main population centres of the electorate include Ceduna, Port Lincoln, Whyalla, Port Augusta, Roxby Downs, Coober Pedy, Port Pirie, Kadina, Maitland, Orroroo, Booleroo Centre, Peterborough, Burra and Eudunda.
Since 1984, federal electoral division boundaries in Australia have been determined at redistributions by a redistribution committee appointed by the Australian Electoral Commission. Redistributions occur for the boundaries of divisions in a particular state, and they occur every seven years, or sooner if a state's representation entitlement changes or when divisions of a state are malapportioned. [1]
When Grey was first created in 1903, it included the Northern Territory and all of northern and western South Australia, down to a line through the Mid North south of Port Pirie. [2]
Following the 1949 redistribution it increased in size and covered almost five-sixths of the State of South Australia (111,000 square miles) from the borders with Western Australian and Northern Territory in the West and North to Queensland and New South Wales in the East. The remaining one-sixth of the State was covered by the other nine Federal Divisions for South Australia. [3] [4]
Grey was held by Labor for much of its history, and was one of the few country seats where Labor usually did well. It remained in Labor hands for all but one term from 1943 to 1993, the only break coming when the Liberals won it during their landslide victory in 1966. For most of that time, it was a fairly safe Labor seat, though it was almost lost in the Coalition landslides in 1975 and 1977.
That changed in 1993, when the retirement of Labor incumbent Lloyd O'Neil, the unpopularity of the state Labor government, and the addition of the Clare Valley at a redistribution enabled Liberal Barry Wakelin become only the second non-Labor member to win the seat in 50 years. That happened even as Labor won another term; it was the first time Labor had won government at an election without winning Grey. However, the election came at a bad time for the state Labor government, which was roundly defeated at the state election later that year in which it lost all but one seat within Grey's borders.
Wakelin was re-elected with a large swing in 1996, and since then the decline in the mining and pastoral vote has made it a fairly safe Liberal seat. While the "Iron Triangle" towns of Whyalla, Port Augusta and Port Pirie still tilt Labor — as they have for more than a century — they are not enough to overcome the increasingly conservative lean in the rest of the seat.
The Liberals consolidated their hold on the seat ahead of the 2004 election when the Yorke Peninsula and the state's upper east, both historically strongly conservative areas, were transferred to Grey from Wakefield. The Liberals suffered a nine-point swing at the 2007 election, but Rowan Ramsey was still able to retain the seat for the Liberals, with 54 percent of the two-party vote. The seat became secure for the Liberals once again after Ramsey picked up a large swing in 2010, which he consolidated in 2013.
South Australian Senator Nick Xenophon confirmed in December 2014 that by mid-2015 the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) would announce candidates in all states and territories at the 2016 election, with Xenophon citing the government's ambiguity on the Collins-class submarine replacement project as motivation. [5] ABC psephologist Antony Green's 2016 federal election guide for South Australia stated NXT had a "strong chance of winning lower house seats and three or four Senate seats". [6]
Going into the 2016 election, Grey was the second-safest Liberal seat in South Australia; Labor needed a 13-point swing to win it. A ReachTEL seat-level opinion poll in Grey of 665 voters conducted by robocall on 9 June during the election campaign surprisingly found NXT candidate Andrea Broadfoot leading the Liberals' Ramsey 54–46 on the two-candidate preferred vote. Seat-level opinion polls in the other two rural Liberal South Australian seats revealed NXT also leading in both Mayo and Barker. [7] [8]
Early counting following the poll showed that Broadfoot was a clear second to Ramsey on first preferences, well ahead of the ALP candidate in third place. This meant that the indicative assessment of two-candidate preferred count on election night had been done between the wrong pair, [9] and would need to be redone in the following week to give a clearer indication as to which of Ramsay and Broadfoot would win the seat after distributing all preferences. [10] [11] While Broadfoot was ahead with as much as 80 percent of ballots counted, she ultimately lost to Ramsey on Family First preferences. Ultimately, Ramsey suffered a swing of 11.6 percent after preferences were counted, which made Grey the most marginal Liberal seat in the state and one of the most marginal Coalition-held rural seats in the nation. On a "traditional" two-party basis (Labor vs. Liberal), however, Grey was still a fairly safe Liberal seat.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Liberal | Rowan Ramsey | 46,730 | 45.32 | −5.33 | |
Labor | Julie Watson | 22,068 | 21.40 | −1.43 | |
Independent | Liz Habermann | 11,613 | 11.26 | +11.26 | |
Greens | Tim White | 6,994 | 6.78 | +2.18 | |
One Nation | Kerry Ann White | 6,452 | 6.26 | −2.43 | |
United Australia | Suzanne Waters | 5,781 | 5.61 | +1.85 | |
Liberal Democrats | Peter Miller | 1,427 | 1.38 | +1.38 | |
Independent | Richard Carmody | 1,332 | 1.29 | −0.45 | |
Australian Federation | Tracey Dempsey | 721 | 0.70 | +0.70 | |
Total formal votes | 103,118 | 93.07 | −0.02 | ||
Informal votes | 7,674 | 6.93 | +0.02 | ||
Turnout | 110,792 | 89.62 | −3.03 | ||
Two-party-preferred result | |||||
Liberal | Rowan Ramsey | 61,938 | 60.07 | −3.25 | |
Labor | Julie Watson | 41,180 | 39.93 | +3.25 | |
Liberal hold | Swing | −3.25 |
The Division of Adelaide is an Australian electoral division in South Australia and is named for the city of Adelaide, South Australia's capital.
The Division of Barker is an Australian electoral division in the south-east of South Australia. The division was established on 2 October 1903, when South Australia's original single multi-member division was split into seven single-member divisions. It is named for Captain Collet Barker, a British military officer and early explorer, prior to the British Settlement of South Australia, of the southern Mount Lofty Ranges, Fleurieu Peninsula and the region at the mouth of the Murray River near the Coorong where he tragically lost his life in 1831 whilst on active duty after successfully solo swimming the channel of water and went Compass in hand over a sandhill.
The Division of Boothby is an Australian federal electoral division in South Australia. The division was one of the seven established when the former Division of South Australia was redistributed on 2 October 1903 and is named after William Boothby (1829–1903), the Returning Officer for the first federal election.
The Division of Hindmarsh is an Australian Electoral Division in South Australia covering the north western and western coastal suburbs of Adelaide. The division was one of the seven established when the former Division of South Australia was split on 2 October 1903, and was first contested at the 1903 election, though now on slightly different boundaries. The Division is named after Sir John Hindmarsh, who was Governor of South Australia from 1836 to 1838. Since the 2019 Australian federal election The Division of Hindmarsh consists of part of the City of Charles Sturt, part of the City of Port Adelaide Enfield, and part of the City of West Torrens.
The Division of Kingston is an Australian Electoral Division in South Australia covering the outer southern suburbs of Adelaide. The 171 km2 seat stretches from Hallett Cove and O'Halloran Hill in the north to Maslin Beach in the south, including the suburbs of Aberfoyle Park, Christie Downs, Christies Beach, Flagstaff Hill, Hackham, Hallett Cove, Huntfield Heights, Lonsdale, Maslin Beach, Moana, Morphett Vale, Old Noarlunga, Onkaparinga Hills, Port Noarlunga, Reynella, Seaford, Sheidow Park, Port Willunga, Trott Park, Woodcroft, and parts of Happy Valley and McLaren Flat.
The Division of Macarthur is an Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales.
The Division of Mayo is an Australian electoral division located to the east and south of Adelaide, South Australia. Created in the state redistribution of 3 September 1984, the division is named after Helen Mayo, a social activist and the first woman elected to an Australian University Council. The 9,315 km2 rural seat covers an area from the Barossa Valley in the north to Cape Jervis in the south. Taking in the Adelaide Hills, Fleurieu Peninsula and Kangaroo Island regions, its largest population centre is Mount Barker. Its other population centres are Aldgate, Bridgewater, Littlehampton, McLaren Vale, Nairne, Stirling, Strathalbyn and Victor Harbor, and its smaller localities include American River, Ashbourne, Balhannah, Brukunga, Carrickalinga, Charleston, Cherry Gardens, Clarendon, Crafers, Cudlee Creek, Currency Creek, Delamere, Echunga, Forreston, Goolwa, Gumeracha, Hahndorf, Houghton, Inglewood, Kersbrook, Kingscote, Langhorne Creek, Lobethal, Macclesfield, McLaren Flat, Meadows, Middleton, Milang, Mount Compass, Mount Pleasant, Mount Torrens, Mylor, Myponga, Normanville, Norton Summit, Oakbank, Penneshaw, Piccadilly, Port Elliot, Second Valley, Springton, Summertown, Uraidla, Willunga, Woodchester, Woodside, Yankalilla, and parts of Birdwood, Old Noarlunga and Upper Sturt.
The Division of Sturt is an Australian electoral division in South Australia. It was proclaimed at the South Australian redistribution of 11 May 1949. Sturt was named for Captain Charles Sturt, a nineteenth century British Military officer and explorer.
The Division of Makin is an electoral division for the Australian House of Representatives located in the northeastern suburbs of Adelaide. Makin was established in the South Australian redistribution of 3 September 1984 and named after MP and diplomat Norman Makin. The Division of Makin consists of part of the City of Port Adelaide Enfield, part of the City of Salisbury and part of the City of Tea Tree Gully.
The Division of Port Adelaide was an Australian electoral division in the state of South Australia. The 181 km2 seat extended from St Kilda in the north to Grange Road and Findon in the south with part of Salisbury to the east. Suburbs included Alberton, Beverley, Birkenhead, Cheltenham, Findon, Kilkenny, Largs Bay, Mansfield Park, North Haven, Ottoway, Parafield Gardens, Paralowie, Pennington, Port Adelaide, Queenstown, Rosewater, Salisbury Downs, Semaphore, Woodville, West Croydon, and part of Seaton. The seat also included Torrens Island and Garden Island. Port Adelaide was abolished in 2019, after a redistribution triggered by a change in representation entitlement which saw South Australia's seats in the House of Representatives reduced to ten.
The Division of Wakefield was an Australian electoral division in the state of South Australia. The seat was a hybrid rural-urban electorate that stretched from Salisbury in the outer northern suburbs of Adelaide at the south of the seat right through to the Clare Valley at the north of the seat, 135 km from Adelaide. It included the suburbs of Elizabeth, Craigmore, Munno Para, and part of Salisbury, and the towns of Balaklava, Clare, Freeling, Gawler, Kapunda, Mallala, Riverton, Tarlee, Virginia, Williamstown, and part of Port Wakefield.
The term swing refers to the extent of change in voter support, typically from one election or opinion poll to another, expressed as a positive or negative percentage point. For the Australian House of Representatives and the lower or unicameral houses of the parliaments of all the states and territories except Tasmania and the ACT, as well as Tasmania's upper house, Australia employs preferential voting in single-member constituencies. Under the full-preference instant-runoff voting system, in each seat the candidate with the lowest vote is eliminated and their preferences are distributed, which is repeated until only two candidates remain. While every seat has a two-candidate preferred (TCP) result, seats where the major parties have come first and second are commonly referred to as having a two-party-preferred (TPP) result. The concept of "swing" in Australian elections is not simply a function of the difference between the votes of the two leading candidates, as it is in Britain. To know the majority of any seat, and therefore the swing necessary for it to change hands, it is necessary to know the preferences of all the voters, regardless of their first preference votes. It is not uncommon in Australia for candidates who have comfortable leads on the first count to fail to win the seat, because "preference flows" go against them.
Stuart is a single-member electoral district for the South Australian House of Assembly. At 323,131 km², it is a vast country district extending from the Spencer Gulf as far as the Northern Territory border in the north and the Queensland and New South Wales borders in the east. The district includes pastoral lease and unincorporated Crown Lands, Lake Eyre and part of the Simpson Desert in the far north. Its main population centres since the 2020 boundaries redistribution are the industrial towns of Port Pirie and Port Augusta.
In Australian politics, the two-party-preferred vote is the result of an election or opinion poll after preferences have been distributed to the highest two candidates, who in some cases can be independents. For the purposes of TPP, the Liberal/National Coalition is usually considered a single party, with Labor being the other major party. Typically the TPP is expressed as the percentages of votes attracted by each of the two major parties, e.g. "Coalition 50%, Labor 50%", where the values include both primary votes and preferences. The TPP is an indicator of how much swing has been attained/is required to change the result, taking into consideration preferences, which may have a significant effect on the result.
The 2010 Australian federal election was held on Saturday, 21 August 2010 to elect members of the 43rd Parliament of Australia. The incumbent centre-left Australian Labor Party led by Prime Minister Julia Gillard won a second term against the opposition centre-right Liberal Party of Australia led by Opposition Leader Tony Abbott and Coalition partner the National Party of Australia, led by Warren Truss, after Labor formed a minority government with the support of three independent MPs and one Australian Greens MP.
Rowan Eric Ramsey is the Liberal Party of Australia member for the House of Representatives seat of Grey since the 2007 election, succeeding previous Liberal member Barry Wakelin. Grey covers most of rural South Australia − over 92 percent of the state by area.
A by-election was held for the South Australian House of Assembly seat of Frome on 17 January 2009. This was triggered by the resignation of former Premier and state Liberal MHA Rob Kerin. The seat had been retained by the Liberals at the 2006 state election on a 3.4 per cent margin, and at the 2002 state election on an 11.5 per cent margin.
Geoffrey Graeme Brock is an Australian politician. He is an Independent member in the South Australian House of Assembly, representing the seat of Stuart since the 2022 South Australian state election. Prior to this, he represented the seat of Frome from the 2009 Frome by-election until a redistribution leading up to the 2022 state election.
The 2018 South Australian state election to elect members to the 54th Parliament of South Australia was held on 17 March 2018. All 47 seats in the House of Assembly or lower house, whose members were elected at the 2014 election, and 11 of 22 seats in the Legislative Council or upper house, last filled at the 2010 election, were contested. The record-16-year-incumbent Australian Labor Party (SA) government led by Premier Jay Weatherill was seeking a fifth four-year term, but was defeated by the opposition Liberal Party of Australia (SA), led by Opposition Leader Steven Marshall. Nick Xenophon's new SA Best party unsuccessfully sought to obtain the balance of power.
Centre Alliance (CA), formerly known as the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT), is a centrist Australian political party based in the state of South Australia. It currently has one elected representative, Rebekha Sharkie in the House of Representatives.