Dickson in the 2025 Australian federal election

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2025 Australian federal election (Dickson)
Flag of Queensland.svg
←  2022 3 May 2025 Next  →
Division of Dickson (Qld) in the House of Representatives
Opinion polls
Registered119,401 [1]
Turnout92.36% (Increase2.svg 1.01)
 First partySecond party
 
Peter Dutton-2024.jpg
Ali France.png
Candidate Peter Dutton Ali France
Party Liberal National Labor
Primary  vote36,62835,502
Percentage34.69%33.63%
SwingDecrease2.svg 7.38Increase2.svg 1.93
TCP 44.01%55.99%
TCP swingDecrease2.svg 7.69Increase2.svg 7.69
 Third partyFourth party
 
IND
Vinnie Batten.jpg
CandidateEllie SmithVinnie Batten
Party Independent Greens
Primary  vote12,8748,061
Percentage12.19%7.64%
SwingIncrease2.svg 12.19Decrease2.svg 5.36
MP before election

Peter Dutton
Liberal National

Elected MP

Ali France
Labor

An election in the Queensland electorate of Dickson took place on 3 May 2025 as part of the 2025 Australian federal election. [2] Incumbent Liberal National Party (LNP) MP Peter Dutton, who was also serving as the leader of the opposition and the leader of the Liberal Party, stood for re-election against eight candidates. [3] [4]

Contents

In what several media outlets described as a "stunning" result, Dutton lost his seat to Australian Labor Party (ALP) candidate Ali France after a 7.7% two-party-preferred vote swing. [5] It was the first time that a federal opposition leader had been defeated in their own seat. [6]

Background

Peter Dutton was elected as the member for Dickson in 2001 after defeating sitting Labor MP Cheryl Kernot. [7] He was re-elected in 2004 with a positive swing, but came close to losing his seat in 2007, retaining it with a two-party-preferred (TPP) vote of 50.1% against Labor. [7]

At the 2019 federal election, Labor preselected former journalist and para-athlete Ali France as its candidate. [8] Dutton was re-elected with a 2.95% TPP swing after a stronger-than-expected showing for the LNP across Queensland. [7] In 2022, France contested Dickson again, with Dutton re-elected despite a 1.7% TPP swing. [9] [10]

Candidates

Candidates are listed in the order they appeared on the ballot. [11]

PartyCandidateBackground
  Family First Suniti HewettCandidate for Morayfield at the 2024 state election [12]
  Labor Ali France Candidate for Dickson in 2019 and 2022 [13]
  Greens Vinnie BattenCandidate for Dickson in 2022 [14]
  One Nation Joel StevensonMaintenance industrial electrician [15]
  Liberal National Peter Dutton Member for Dickson since 2001 [16]
  Trumpet of Patriots Michael JessopBusinessman [17] [18]
  Independent Ellie SmithEnvironmental consultant [19]
  Legalise Cannabis David Zaloudek Cannabis activist [20]
  Animal Justice Maureen BrohmanPrimary school teacher [21]

Liberal National

Dutton was seeking a ninth term as the member for Dickson. [22] He became leader of the opposition on 30 May 2022 after the resignation of former prime minister Scott Morrison. [23]

Labor

France was announced as Labor's candidate on 11 July 2024, holding a press conference with prime minister Anthony Albanese the following day. [24] [25]

Independent

Environmental consultant Ellie Smith announced her candidacy on 27 January 2025. [26] She was endorsed by Climate 200, which supported 35 "teal independent" candidates at the 2025 federal election. [27] [28]

Greens

On 23 December 2024, environmental scientist and para-athlete Vinnie Batten was announced as the Greens' candidate. [29] He contested the seat in 2022. [30]

Campaign

On 18 April 2025, journalist Karen Middleton reported that the Liberals "[weren't] concerned" about the possibility of losing Dickson. [31] Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) election analyst Casey Briggs listed Dickson as one of six "potential wildcard" electorates. [32]

Endorsements

List of endorsements in Dickson at the 2025 federal election

Peter Dutton (LNP)

Ali France (Labor)

Ellie Smith (independent)

Vinnie Batten (Greens)

  • Vote Climate One (co-endorsement) [41]

David Zaloudek (Legalise Cannabis)

  • Vote Climate One (co-endorsement) [41]

Maureen Brohman (Animal Justice)

  • Vote Climate One (co-endorsement) [41]

Did not make specific endorsement

  • Abbie Chatfield – media personality (supported voting against Dutton) [42]
  • Hannah Ferguson – CEO of Cheek Media (supported voting against Dutton) [42]

Results

This section is an excerpt from Results of the 2025 Australian federal election in Queensland § Dickson.[ edit ]
2025 Australian federal election: Dickson [43] [44]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Liberal National Peter Dutton 36,62834.69−7.38
Labor Ali France 35,50233.63+1.93
Independent Ellie Smith12,87412.19+12.19
Greens Vinnie Batten8,0617.64−5.36
One Nation Joel Stevenson4,4294.19−1.17
Legalise Cannabis David Zaloudek2,9502.79+2.79
Family First Suniti Hewett2,2992.18+2.18
Trumpet of Patriots Michael Jessop1,9001.80+1.80
Animal Justice Maureen Brohman9360.89+0.89
Total formal votes105,57995.76−0.36
Informal votes4,6764.24+0.36
Turnout 110,25592.36+1.01
Two-party-preferred result
Labor Ali France 59,11555.99+7.69
Liberal National Peter Dutton 46,46444.01−7.69
Labor gain from Liberal National Swing +7.69

Opinion polling

This section is an excerpt from Electorate opinion polling and projections for the 2025 Australian federal election § Division of Dickson.[ edit ]
DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LNP ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 34.7%33.6%7.6%4.3%12.2%7.7%44.0%56.0%
17–24 Apr 2025YouGov [45] [46] 253±6%40.3%24.2%7.6%5.4%16.5%6.0% [a] 55%45%
18–23 Apr 2025DemosAU [b] [47] 1,053±4.3%40%27%13%7%5%8% [c] 53%47%
10 Apr 2025 (released)Freshwater Strategy [d] [48] ————————57%43%
10 Apr 2025 (released)uComms [e] [48] ————————48.3%51.7%
9–10 Apr 2025uComms [f] [48] 854—37.6%24.2%10.9%—12.0%4.6%48%52%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP) [49] 10,217—39.7%28.8%12.7%8.6%7.8%2.4%52.5%47.5%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP) [50] 8,732—41.3%28.2%12.3%8.8%8.2%1.2%53.9%46.1%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [51] 4,909—48%33%6%——12%56%44%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP) [52] 5,976—42%30%9%——19%55%45%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 42.1%31.7%13%5.4%3.9%4.0%51.7%48.3%

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ 1.3% for Trumpet of Patriots and 4.7% for all others.
  2. ↑ The polling figures are a combined primary vote average from the electorates of Bonner, Dickson, Forde, Longman and Petrie. [47]
  3. ↑ 3% for Family First, 2% for Legalise Cannabis, 2% for Trumpet of Patriots, 1% for the Australian Citizens Party, 0% for the Animal Justice Party and 0% for the Libertarian Party.
  4. ↑ Commissioned by the Liberal Party.
  5. ↑ Commissioned by Climate 200.
  6. ↑ Commissioned by the Queensland Conservation Council.

References

  1. ↑ "2025 federal election enrolment statistics". Australian Electoral Commission. 10 April 2025. Archived from the original on 4 December 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  2. ↑ "Dickson – Australia 2025". The Tally Room. Archived from the original on 4 December 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  3. ↑ McKay, Jack; Loftus, Tobi (5 May 2025). "Dickson voters explain why Peter Dutton lost seat to Labor's Ali France". ABC News. Archived from the original on 26 July 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  4. ↑ Smee, Ben (8 May 2025). "The Peter principle: how Dutton's election campaign in Dickson went horribly wrong". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 4 December 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  5. ↑ Davis, Miriah (4 May 2025). "Who is Ali France, the Labor MP who conquered Peter Dutton?". 9News. Archived from the original on 4 December 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  6. ↑ Tian, Yang (4 May 2025). "Australia's opposition left reeling after crushing election defeat". BBC News. Archived from the original on 29 September 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  7. 1 2 3 Sakkal, Paul; Knott, Matthew (3 May 2025). "Dutton loses seat of Dickson in heavy Coalition defeat". Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 29 May 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  8. ↑ Cleal, Olivia (14 July 2024). "Labor's Ali France is running for her third election against Peter Dutton in Dickson". Women's Agenda. Archived from the original on 17 April 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  9. ↑ McKenna, Michael; Peel, Charlie; Lynch, Lydia (22 May 2022). "Federal Election 2022 Queensland results: Peter Dutton holds on amid 'Greens-slide'". The Australian. Archived from the original on 4 December 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  10. ↑ Gossling, Bronte (3 May 2025). "Peter Dutton loses his own seat of Dickson". Brisbane Times. Archived from the original on 13 June 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  11. ↑ "2025 Federal Election candidates Dickson". Moreton Daily. 14 April 2025. Archived from the original on 22 April 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  12. ↑ "Suniti Hewett, Candidate for Dickson". Family First Party Australia. Archived from the original on 18 July 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  13. ↑ "Ali France". Australian Labor Party. Archived from the original on 2 April 2025. Retrieved 5 December 2025.
  14. ↑ "Vinnie Batten". Queensland Greens. Archived from the original on 29 April 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  15. ↑ "Joel Stevenson". Pauline Hanson's One Nation. Archived from the original on 2 May 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  16. ↑ "Peter Dutton MP". Liberal National Party of Queensland. Archived from the original on 30 April 2025. Retrieved 5 December 2025.
  17. ↑ "Michael Jessop". Trumpet of Patriots. Archived from the original on 2 May 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  18. ↑ "Trumpet of Patriots candidate Michael Jessop facing criminal charges". ABC News. 14 April 2025. Archived from the original on 20 July 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  19. ↑ "Hi, I'm Ellie Smith". Ellie Smith. Archived from the original on 23 March 2025. Retrieved 5 December 2025.
  20. ↑ "Queensland House of Representatives Candidates 2025". Legalise Cannabis Queensland. Archived from the original on 30 April 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  21. ↑ "Maureen Brohman for Dickson". Animal Justice Party Queensland. Archived from the original on 21 June 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  22. ↑ Brown, Andrew (12 July 2024). "ALP backs female candidate's third run against Dutton". AAP. Archived from the original on 16 July 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  23. ↑ Evans, Jake (30 May 2022). "Peter Dutton becomes the new Liberal Party leader, as the Coalition enters the wilderness". ABC News. Archived from the original on 27 July 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  24. ↑ Elks, Sarah (11 July 2024). "'Long shot to marginal': Labor's seat fightback". The Australian. Archived from the original on 11 July 2024. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  25. ↑ Albanese, Anthony; France, Ali (12 July 2024). "Doorstop interview - Brisbane". Prime Minister's Office. Archived from the original on 14 March 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  26. ↑ O'Malley, Brendan (27 January 2025). "'Maroon' Independent Ellie Smith to take on Peter Dutton in marginal Dickson seat". The Courier Mail. Archived from the original on 27 January 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  27. ↑ Coorey, Phillip (18 April 2024). "Climate 200 targets 20 more seats including Dutton's". Australian Financial Review. Archived from the original on 18 April 2024. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  28. ↑ Messenger, Andrew (27 January 2025). "Don't call me teal: meet the Climate 200-backed candidate set to take on Peter Dutton". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 14 April 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  29. ↑ "Hello, I'm Vinnie Batten, and I am really pleased to announce that I will once again be your Greens candidate for Dickson, taking on Peter Dutton!". Instagram. Vinnie Batten - Greens for Dickson. 23 December 2024. Archived from the original on 4 December 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  30. ↑ Brewster, Alex (17 April 2025). "With Peter Dutton holding a thin margin, the stakes are high in Dickson this federal election". ABC News. Archived from the original on 25 July 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  31. ↑ Middleton, Karen (18 April 2025). "Sowing doubt in Dutton's Dickson". Inside Story. Archived from the original on 13 May 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  32. ↑ Briggs, Casey (1 May 2025). "The wildcard seats of the 2025 federal election". ABC News. Archived from the original on 30 August 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  33. ↑ "Former PM says Peter Dutton would be a 'Prime Minister in the mould of John Howard'". 4BC. 16 April 2025. Archived from the original on 6 May 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  34. 1 2 "Dutton launches campaign in one of the election's 'most important' battlegrounds". The Guardian. 14 April 2025. Archived from the original on 6 May 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  35. ↑ Elsworth, Sophie (4 April 2025). "Scathing of Albo, would-be UK prime minister Nigel Farage backs Dutton to win federal election". The Daily Telegraph. Archived from the original on 4 December 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  36. ↑ "'See how he works': Paul Murray to sit down with Peter Dutton tomorrow night". Sky News Australia. 28 April 2025. Archived from the original on 4 December 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  37. ↑ "Federal Election 2025 Candidates". EMILY's List Australia. Archived from the original on 20 June 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  38. ↑ Stewart, Rachel; Haynes, Jessica (3 May 2025). "Who is Ali France? Meet the incoming Dickson MP who unseated Peter Dutton". ABC News. Archived from the original on 18 May 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  39. ↑ "Independents changing the game in 2025". Climate 200. Archived from the original on 18 September 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  40. ↑ Maclean, Katie (24 April 2025). "The community powered campaign behind Ellie Smith for Dickson". Echo News. Archived from the original on 4 December 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  41. 1 2 3 4 "Dickson/Federal Election 2025". Vote Climate One. Archived from the original on 15 June 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  42. 1 2 Karakulak, Helen (22 April 2025). "Influenced: How politics intersected with social media this week". The New Daily. Archived from the original on 18 June 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  43. ↑ "Dickson, QLD". Australian Electoral Commission. 3 May 2025. Archived from the original on 19 September 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  44. ↑ "Dickson (Key Seat) Federal Election 2025 Results". ABC News. 3 May 2025. Archived from the original on 4 December 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  45. ↑ Bowe, William (27 April 2025). "Election minus six days: regional seat polling, tactical manoeuvres and age breakdowns (open thread)". The Poll Bludger. Archived from the original on 27 April 2025. Retrieved 27 April 2025.
  46. ↑ Shteyman, Jacob (26 April 2025). "Peter Dutton faces historic risk as Opposition Leader with Dickson seat poll showing narrow lead". The Nightly. Archived from the original on 26 April 2025. Retrieved 26 April 2025.
  47. 1 2 "Poll of Brisbane Outer Metro Electorates" (PDF). DemosAU. 24 April 2025. Archived from the original (PDF) on 4 December 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  48. 1 2 3 Bowe, William (12 April 2025). "Federal election minus three weeks: marginal seats poll, declaration of nominations and more (open thread)". The Poll Bludger. Archived from the original on 12 April 2025. Retrieved 12 April 2025.
  49. ↑ "Labor one seat short of a majority in YouGov's second MRP of the 2025 Australian election". YouGov Australia. 30 March 2025. Archived from the original on 30 March 2025. Retrieved 4 April 2025.
  50. ↑ "Coalition best-placed to form a government, but is currently falling two seats short of a majority". YouGov Australia. 14 February 2025. Archived from the original on 23 March 2025. Retrieved 4 April 2025.
  51. ↑ "Australia's political landscape: Spring 2024" (PDF). Accent Research. 6 December 2024. Archived from the original (PDF) on 20 December 2024. Retrieved 4 April 2025.
  52. ↑ "Australia's political landscape: Winter 2024" (PDF). Accent Research. 9 September 2024. Archived from the original (PDF) on 4 March 2025. Retrieved 4 April 2025.
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