Post-election pendulum for the 2025 Australian federal election

Last updated

The Australian Labor Party won the 2025 federal election in a landslide, winning 94 of 150 seats in the House of Representatives. The Coalition won 43 seats.

Contents

Classification of seats as marginal, fairly safe or safe is applied by the independent Australian Electoral Commission using the following definition: "Where a winning party receives less than 56% of the vote, the seat is classified as 'marginal', 56–60% is classified as 'fairly safe' and more than 60% is considered 'safe'." [1] Here, 'the vote' is defined as the vote after preferences, where the distribution of preferences has continued to the point where there are only 2 candidates left.

In the Opposition Seats table, blue is used for both the Liberal party and members of the LNP who caucus with the Liberal party room, while green is used for both the National party and members of the LNP who caucus with the National party room.

The Mackerras pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster-style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or instant-runoff voting.

The pendulum works by lining up the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the crossbenches according to the percentage point margin by which they are held on a two-candidate preferred (2CP) basis. That is also known as the swing that is required for the seat to change hands. With a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats changing hands can be predicted.

Pendulum (2CP)


Government (94 seats)
Marginal
Bean ACT David Smith ALP v IND0.34
Bullwinkel WA Trish Cook ALP0.51
Fremantle WA Josh Wilson ALP v IND0.69
Menzies Vic Gabriel Ng ALP1.08
Petrie Qld Emma Comer ALP1.17
Solomon NT Luke Gosling ALP1.31
Bendigo Vic Lisa Chesters ALP v NAT1.40
Wills Vic Peter Khalil ALP v GRN1.43
Forde Qld Rowan Holzberger ALP1.77
Banks NSW Zhi Soon ALP2.39
Deakin Vic Matt Gregg ALP2.82
Moore WA Tom French ALP2.89
Melbourne Vic Sarah Witty ALP v GRN3.02
Hughes NSW David Moncrieff ALP3.06
Aston Vic Mary Doyle ALP3.43
McEwen Vic Rob Mitchell ALP4.76
Bonner Qld Kara Cook ALP5.00
Calwell Vic Basem Abdo ALP v IND5.08
Gilmore NSW Fiona Phillips ALP5.13
Chisholm Vic Carina Garland ALP5.70
Blair Qld Shayne Neumann ALP5.71
Dickson Qld Ali France ALP5.99
Fairly safe
Leichhardt Qld Matt Smith ALP6.06
Whitlam NSW Carol Berry ALP6.25
Pearce WA Tracey Roberts ALP6.44
Sturt SA Claire Clutterham ALP6.62
Werriwa NSW Anne Stanley ALP6.77
Paterson NSW Meryl Swanson ALP6.89
Tangney WA Sam Lim ALP6.99
Dunkley Vic Jodie Belyea ALP7.08
Braddon Tas Anne Urquhart ALP7.20
Eden-Monaro NSW Kristy McBain ALP7.21
Hawke Vic Sam Rae ALP7.63
Macquarie NSW Susan Templeman ALP7.71
Franklin Tas Julie Collins ALP v IND7.78
Bass Tas Jess Teesdale ALP8.01
Corangamite Vic Libby Coker ALP8.05
Lingiari NT Marion Scrymgour ALP8.13
Brisbane Qld Madonna Jarrett ALP8.96
McMahon NSW Chris Bowen ALP9.02
Hunter NSW Daniel Repacholi ALP v ONP9.04
Fraser Vic Daniel Mulino ALP v GRN9.23
Bennelong NSW Jerome Laxale ALP9.26
Robertson NSW Gordon Reid ALP9.37
Dobell NSW Emma McBride ALP9.43
Cooper Vic Ged Kearney ALP v GRN9.72
Safe
Richmond NSW Justine Elliot ALP10.00
Gorton Vic Alice Jordan-Baird ALP10.28
Griffith Qld Renee Coffey ALP v GRN10.57
Ballarat Vic Catherine King ALP10.66
Boothby SA Louise Miller-Frost ALP11.10
Shortland NSW Pat Conroy ALP11.51
Lyons Tas Rebecca White ALP11.58
Macnamara Vic Josh Burns ALP11.80
Reid NSW Sally Sitou ALP12.01
Parramatta NSW Andrew Charlton ALP12.55
Maribyrnong Vic Jo Briskey ALP12.65
Jagajaga Vic Kate Thwaites ALP12.88
Lalor Vic Joanne Ryan ALP13.21
Corio Vic Richard Marles ALP13.23
Cowan WA Anne Aly ALP13.63
Greenway NSW Michelle Rowland ALP13.76
Swan WA Zaneta Mascarenhas ALP13.99
Holt Vic Cassandra Fernando ALP14.03
Scullin Vic Andrew Giles ALP14.29
Isaacs Vic Mark Dreyfus ALP14.34
Lilley Qld Anika Wells ALP14.52
Bruce Vic Julian Hill ALP14.62
Makin SA Tony Zappia ALP14.66
Gellibrand Vic Tim Watts ALP15.10
Spence SA Matt Burnell ALP15.34
Rankin Qld Jim Chalmers ALP15.55
Macarthur NSW Mike Freelander ALP15.61
Burt WA Matt Keogh ALP15.71
Newcastle NSW Sharon Claydon ALP v GRN15.80
Hasluck WA Tania Lawrence ALP15.97
Barton NSW Ash Ambihaipahar ALP16.00
Moreton Qld Julie-Ann Campbell ALP16.09
Hindmarsh SA Mark Butler ALP16.35
Perth WA Patrick Gorman ALP16.51
Watson NSW Tony Burke ALP v IND16.52
Hotham Vic Clare O'Neil ALP16.86
Grayndler NSW Anthony Albanese ALP v GRN16.86
Brand WA Madeleine King ALP16.92
Kingsford Smith NSW Matt Thistlethwaite ALP17.19
Cunningham NSW Alison Byrnes ALP17.52
Adelaide SA Steve Georganas ALP19.07
Oxley Qld Milton Dick ALP19.19
Canberra ACT Alicia Payne ALP v GRN19.52
Chifley NSW Ed Husic ALP19.83
Kingston SA Amanda Rishworth ALP20.74
Sydney NSW Tanya Plibersek ALP v GRN20.95
Blaxland NSW Jason Clare ALP21.90
Fenner ACT Andrew Leigh ALP22.08
Opposition (43 seats)
Marginal
Goldstein Vic Tim Wilson LIB v IND0.08
Longman Qld Terry Young LNP0.11
Berowra NSW Julian Leeser LIB1.63
La Trobe Vic Jason Wood LIB2.06
Forrest WA Ben Small LIB2.24
Flinders Vic Zoe McKenzie LIB v IND2.29
Bowman Qld Henry Pike LNP2.43
Cowper NSW Pat Conaghan NAT v IND2.54
Lindsay NSW Melissa McIntosh LIB2.78
Casey Vic Aaron Violi LIB2.89
Fairfax Qld Ted O'Brien LNP3.23
Wannon Vic Dan Tehan LIB v IND3.27
Mitchell NSW Alex Hawke LIB3.81
Monash Vic Mary Aldred LIB4.09
McPherson Qld Leon Rebello LNP4.44
Grey SA Tom Venning LIB4.64
Groom Qld Garth Hamilton LNP v IND5.67
Capricornia Qld Michelle Landry LNP5.83
Fairly safe
Fisher Qld Andrew Wallace LNP6.03
Farrer NSW Sussan Ley LIB v IND6.19
Hinkler Qld David Batt LNP6.26
Canning WA Andrew Hastie LIB6.55
Fadden Qld Cameron Caldwell LNP6.88
Cook NSW Simon Kennedy LIB7.19
Wide Bay Qld Llew O'Brien LNP7.63
Wright Qld Scott Buchholz LNP7.98
Hume NSW Angus Taylor LIB8.06
Moncrieff Qld Angie Bell LNP8.80
Page NSW Kevin Hogan NAT9.29
Lyne NSW Alison Penfold NAT9.78
Safe
Durack WA Melissa Price LIB10.15
Flynn Qld Colin Boyce LNP10.24
Dawson Qld Andrew Willcox LNP11.83
Riverina NSW Michael McCormack NAT12.62
Parkes NSW Jamie Chaffey NAT12.97
Barker SA Tony Pasin LIB12.98
O'Connor WA Rick Wilson LIB13.28
Herbert Qld Phillip Thompson LNP13.41
Nicholls Vic Sam Birrell NAT14.38
New England NSW Barnaby Joyce NAT17.06
Mallee Vic Anne Webster NAT19.04
Gippsland Vic Darren Chester NAT19.36
Maranoa Qld David Littleproud LNP v ONP20.10
Crossbench (13 seats)
Marginal
Bradfield NSW Nicolette Boele IND v LIB0.01
Kooyong Vic Monique Ryan IND v LIB0.67
Fowler NSW Dai Le IND v ALP2.68
Ryan Qld Elizabeth Watson-Brown GRN v LNP3.27
Curtin WA Kate Chaney IND v LIB3.27
Mackellar NSW Sophie Scamps IND v LIB5.66
Fairly safe
Calare NSW Andrew Gee IND v NAT6.78
Wentworth NSW Allegra Spender IND v LIB8.34
Indi Vic Helen Haines IND v LIB8.64
Safe
Warringah NSW Zali Steggall IND v LIB11.20
Mayo SA Rebekha Sharkie CA v ALP14.89
Kennedy Qld Bob Katter KAP v LNP15.75
Clark Tas Andrew Wilkie IND v ALP20.38

Analysis

  • Labor increased its majority significantly, securing 94 seats, up from 77 in 2022.
  • The Coalition dropped to 43 seats, continuing its downward trend.
  • The crossbench decreased slightly to 13 seats, down from 16, despite maintaining influence in key electorates.

Pendulum (2PP)

Separate to the two-candidate preferred (2CP) vote, the two-party preferred (2PP) vote is calculated in all seats. In "non-classic seats" (seats where a major party fails to reach the 2CP count of which there were 35 at this election), the 2PP figure differs to the 2CP figure (in classic seats, the 2CP and 2PP are the same). The 2PP figures in the non-classic seats allow for the calculation of the nation-wide 2PP vote. [2] [3]

Labor (100 seats)
Marginal
Bullwinkel WA Trish Cook ALP0.51
Wentworth NSW Allegra Spender (IND)ALP0.56
Menzies Vic Gabriel Ng ALP1.08
Petrie Qld Emma Comer ALP1.17
Solomon NT Luke Gosling ALP1.31
Bendigo Vic Lisa Chesters ALP1.40
Forde Qld Rowan Holzberger ALP1.77
Banks NSW Zhi Soon ALP2.39
Deakin Vic Matt Gregg ALP2.82
Moore WA Tom French ALP2.89
Hughes NSW David Moncrieff ALP3.06
Aston Vic Mary Doyle ALP3.43
Warringah NSW Zali Steggall (IND)ALP4.51
McEwen Vic Rob Mitchell ALP4.76
Mayo SA Rebekha Sharkie (CA)ALP4.98
Bonner Qld Kara Cook ALP5.00
Gilmore NSW Fiona Phillips ALP5.13
Chisholm Vic Carina Garland ALP5.70
Blair Qld Shayne Neumann ALP5.71
Dickson Qld Ali France ALP5.99
Fairly safe
Leichhardt Qld Matt Smith ALP6.06
Whitlam NSW Carol Berry ALP6.25
Pearce WA Tracey Roberts ALP6.44
Sturt SA Claire Clutterham ALP6.62
Werriwa NSW Anne Stanley ALP6.77
Paterson NSW Meryl Swanson ALP6.89
Tangney WA Sam Lim ALP6.99
Dunkley Vic Jodie Belyea ALP7.08
Braddon Tas Anne Urquhart ALP7.20
Eden-Monaro NSW Kristy McBain ALP7.21
Hawke Vic Sam Rae ALP7.63
Macquarie NSW Susan Templeman ALP7.71
Ryan Qld Elizabeth Watson-Brown (GRN)ALP7.82
Bass Tas Jess Teesdale ALP8.01
Corangamite Vic Libby Coker ALP8.05
Lingiari NT Marion Scrymgour ALP8.13
Brisbane Qld Madonna Jarrett ALP8.96
McMahon NSW Chris Bowen ALP9.02
Bennelong NSW Jerome Laxale ALP9.26
Robertson NSW Gordon Reid ALP9.37
Dobell NSW Emma McBride ALP9.43
Hunter NSW Daniel Repacholi ALP9.48
Safe
Richmond NSW Justine Elliot ALP10.00
Gorton Vic Alice Jordan-Baird ALP10.28
Ballarat Vic Catherine King ALP10.66
Boothby SA Louise Miller-Frost ALP11.10
Shortland NSW Pat Conroy ALP11.51
Lyons Tas Rebecca White ALP11.58
Macnamara Vic Josh Burns ALP11.80
Reid NSW Sally Sitou ALP12.01
Parramatta NSW Andrew Charlton ALP12.55
Maribyrnong Vic Jo Briskey ALP12.65
Jagajaga Vic Kate Thwaites ALP12.88
Lalor Vic Joanne Ryan ALP13.21
Corio Vic Richard Marles ALP13.23
Cowan WA Anne Aly ALP13.63
Greenway NSW Michelle Rowland ALP13.76
Swan WA Zaneta Mascarenhas ALP13.99
Holt Vic Cassandra Fernando ALP14.03
Scullin Vic Andrew Giles ALP14.29
Isaacs Vic Mark Dreyfus ALP14.34
Lilley Qld Anika Wells ALP14.52
Bruce Vic Julian Hill ALP14.62
Makin SA Tony Zappia ALP14.66
Calwell Vic Basem Abdo ALP14.71
Gellibrand Vic Tim Watts ALP15.10
Spence SA Matt Burnell ALP15.34
Rankin Qld Jim Chalmers ALP15.55
Macarthur NSW Mike Freelander ALP15.61
Burt WA Matt Keogh ALP15.71
Griffith Qld Renee Coffey ALP15.94
Hasluck WA Tania Lawrence ALP15.97
Barton NSW Ash Ambihaipahar ALP16.00
Moreton Qld Julie-Ann Campbell ALP16.09
Hindmarsh SA Mark Butler ALP16.35
Perth WA Patrick Gorman ALP16.51
Hotham Vic Clare O'Neil ALP16.86
Brand WA Madeleine King ALP16.92
Kingsford Smith NSW Matt Thistlethwaite ALP17.19
Cunningham NSW Alison Byrnes ALP17.52
Fowler NSW Dai Le (IND)ALP18.19
Fremantle WA Josh Wilson ALP18.68
Adelaide SA Steve Georganas ALP19.07
Oxley Qld Milton Dick ALP19.19
Bean ACT David Smith ALP19.29
Franklin Tas Julie Collins ALP19.44
Chifley NSW Ed Husic ALP19.83
Kingston SA Amanda Rishworth ALP20.74
Newcastle NSW Sharon Claydon ALP20.79
Clark Tas Andrew Wilkie (IND)ALP20.89
Blaxland NSW Jason Clare ALP21.90
Fraser Vic Daniel Mulino ALP22.02
Fenner ACT Andrew Leigh ALP22.08
Watson NSW Tony Burke ALP22.86
Melbourne Vic Sarah Witty ALP23.97
Canberra ACT Alicia Payne ALP26.42
Sydney NSW Tanya Plibersek ALP28.08
Cooper Vic Ged Kearney ALP28.53
Grayndler NSW Anthony Albanese ALP30.18
Wills Vic Peter Khalil ALP30.86
Liberal/National (50 seats)
Marginal
Longman Qld Terry Young LIB0.11
Berowra NSW Julian Leeser LIB1.63
La Trobe Vic Jason Wood LIB2.06
Curtin WA Kate Chaney (IND)LIB2.16
Forrest WA Ben Small LIB2.24
Kooyong Vic Monique Ryan (IND)LIB2.37
Bowman Qld Henry Pike LIB2.43
Lindsay NSW Melissa McIntosh LIB2.78
Casey Vic Aaron Violi LIB2.89
Fairfax Qld Ted O'Brien LIB3.23
Mackellar NSW Sophie Scamps (IND)LIB3.66
Mitchell NSW Alex Hawke LIB3.81
Goldstein Vic Tim Wilson LIB3.97
Monash Vic Mary Aldred LIB4.09
McPherson Qld Leon Rebello LIB4.44
Grey SA Tom Venning LIB4.64
Flinders Vic Zoe McKenzie LIB4.78
Bradfield NSW Nicolette Boele (IND)LIB4.95
Capricornia Qld Michelle Landry NAT5.83
Fairly safe
Fisher Qld Andrew Wallace LIB6.03
Hinkler Qld David Batt NAT6.26
Canning WA Andrew Hastie LIB6.55
Indi Vic Helen Haines (IND)LIB6.66
Fadden Qld Cameron Caldwell LIB6.88
Cook NSW Simon Kennedy LIB7.19
Wide Bay Qld Llew O'Brien NAT7.63
Wright Qld Scott Buchholz LIB7.98
Hume NSW Angus Taylor LIB8.06
Moncrieff Qld Angie Bell LIB8.80
Cowper NSW Pat Conaghan NAT9.08
Page NSW Kevin Hogan NAT9.29
Kennedy Qld Bob Katter (KAP)NAT9.32
Lyne NSW Alison Penfold NAT9.78
Safe
Durack WA Melissa Price LIB10.15
Flynn Qld Colin Boyce NAT10.24
Wannon Vic Dan Tehan LIB10.92
Dawson Qld Andrew Willcox NAT11.83
Calare NSW Andrew Gee (IND)NAT12.26
Riverina NSW Michael McCormack NAT12.62
Farrer NSW Sussan Ley LIB12.89
Parkes NSW Jamie Chaffey NAT12.97
Barker SA Tony Pasin LIB12.98
O'Connor WA Rick Wilson LIB13.28
Groom Qld Garth Hamilton LIB13.35
Herbert Qld Phillip Thompson LIB13.41
Nicholls Vic Sam Birrell NAT14.38
New England NSW Barnaby Joyce NAT17.06
Mallee Vic Anne Webster NAT19.04
Gippsland Vic Darren Chester NAT19.36
Maranoa Qld David Littleproud NAT23.96

Seats changing 2CP classification

SeatPartySwing
(to winner)
20222025
Aston (VIC)LiberalLabor+5.8
Banks (NSW)LiberalLabor+4.6
Bass (TAS)LiberalLabor+9.4
Bean (ACT)LaborLabor−12.7
Bendigo (VIC)LaborLabor−9.9
Bennelong (NSW)LiberalLabor+9.3
Berowra (NSW)LiberalLiberal−5.7
Blaxland (NSW)LaborLabor+8.9
Bonner (QLD)Liberal NationalLabor+8.3
Boothby (SA)LaborLabor+7.4
Braddon (TAS)LiberalLabor+15.3
Bradfield (TAS)LiberalIndependent+3.4
Brisbane (QLD)GreensLabor+58.5
Bruce (VIC)LaborLabor+9.3
Calare (NSW)NationalIndependent+56.2
Capricornia (QLD)Liberal NationalLiberal National−1.0
Cook (NSW)LiberalLiberal−4.0
Cowan (WA)LaborLabor+3.7
Deakin (VIC)LiberalLabor+3.0
Dickson (QLD)Liberal NationalLabor+7.2
Fairfax (QLD)Liberal NationalLiberal National−5.1
Farrer (NSW)LiberalLiberal−10.2
Fenner (ACT)LaborLabor+5.7
Flinders (VIC)LiberalLiberal−4.2
Flynn (QLD)Liberal NationalLiberal National+5.9
Forde (QLD)Liberal NationalLabor+5.7
Franklin (TAS)LaborLabor−5.9
Fraser (VIC)LaborLabor−7.6
Fremantle (WA)LaborLabor−16.3
Goldstein (VIC)IndependentLiberal+3.9
Greenway (NSW)LaborLabor+4.6
Grey (SA)LiberalLiberal−5.3
Griffith (QLD)GreensLabor+60.5
Groom (QLD)Liberal NationalLiberal National−1.1
Hinkler (QLD)Liberal NationalLiberal National−3.7
Holt (VIC)LaborLabor+6.9
Hughes (NSW)LiberalLabor+5.8
Hunter (NSW)LaborLabor+4.3
Isaacs (VIC)LaborLabor+5.1
Kingston (SA)LaborLabor+4.7
La Trobe (VIC)LiberalLiberal−5.5
Leichhardt (QLD)Liberal NationalLabor+9.5
Lindsay (NSW)LiberalLiberal−3.0
Lingiari (NT)LaborLabor+7.1
Lyons (TAS)LaborLabor+10.7
Macarthur (NSW)LaborLabor+6.0
McPherson (QLD)Liberal NationalLiberal National−4.2
Melbourne (VIC)GreensLabor+9.3
Mitchell (NSW)LiberalLiberal−5.9
Moncrieff (QLD)Liberal NationalLiberal National−1.6
Moore (WA)LiberalLabor+3.7
Moreton (QLD)LaborLabor+7.0
O'Connor (WA)LiberalLiberal+7.3
Parramatta (NSW)LaborLabor+9.0
Paterson (NSW)LaborLabor+4.1
Petrie (QLD)Liberal NationalLabor+5.4
Rankin (QLD)LaborLabor+6.2
Reid (NSW)LaborLabor+6.8
Riverina (NSW)NationalNational+3.4
Robertson (NSW)LaborLabor+7.1
Ryan (QLD)GreensGreens+3.5
Shortland (NSW)LaborLabor+5.4
Solomon (NT)LaborLabor−7.3
Sturt (SA)LiberalLabor+6.7
Swan (WA)LaborLabor+4.9
Sydney (NSW)LaborLabor+4.9
Tangney (WA)LaborLabor+3.6
Wentworth (NSW)LiberalIndependent+8.9
Wide Bay (QLD)Liberal NationalLiberal National−2.8
Wills (VIC)LaborLabor−7.6
Wright (QLD)Liberal NationalLiberal National−2.0

References

  1. Division Classifications Archived 22 August 2016 at the Wayback Machine , Virtual Tally Room 2016, Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 21 August 2016.
  2. "Non-classic divisions". AEC Tallyroom 2025 Federal Election. Canberra: Australian Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 28 May 2025. Retrieved 20 June 2025.
  3. "Two party preferred by division". AEC Tallyroom 2025 Federal Election. Canberra: Australian Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 28 May 2025. Retrieved 20 June 2025.