Pre-election pendulum for the 2013 Australian federal election

Last updated

The following is a pendulum based on the outcome of the 2010 federal election and changes since, including the redistributions of seats in South Australia and Victoria. It is a Mackerras pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras, which works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament (71 Labor, 72 Coalition, 1 Green, 1 KAP and 5 independent) according to the percentage point margin on a two-candidate-preferred basis. [1] The two-party result is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties in an election, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Swings are never uniform, but in practice variations of swing among the Australian states usually tend to cancel each other out. Seats are arranged in safeness categories according to the Australian Electoral Commission's (AEC) classification of safeness. "Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent. [2] The swings for South Australian and Victorian seats are notional, based on calculations by the AEC. [3]

Contents

Pendulum

Government seats
Marginal
Corangamite (Vic) Darren Cheeseman ALP50.28
Deakin (Vic) Mike Symon ALP50.60
Greenway (NSW) Michelle Rowland ALP50.88
Robertson (NSW) Deborah O'Neill ALP51.00
Lindsay (NSW) David Bradbury ALP51.12
Moreton (Qld) Graham Perrett ALP51.13
Banks (NSW) Daryl Melham ALP51.45
La Trobe (Vic) Laura Smyth ALP51.66
Petrie (Qld) Yvette D'Ath ALP52.51
Reid (NSW) John Murphy ALP52.68
Lilley (Qld) Wayne Swan ALP53.18
Brand (WA) Gary Gray ALP53.33
Capricornia (Qld) Kirsten Livermore ALP53.68
Lingiari (NT) Warren Snowdon ALP53.70
Page (NSW) Janelle Saffin ALP54.19
Grayndler (NSW) Anthony Albanese ALP54.23 v GRN
Eden-Monaro (NSW) Mike Kelly ALP54.24
Blair (Qld) Shayne Neumann ALP54.24
Parramatta (NSW) Julie Owens ALP54.37
Dobell (NSW) Craig Thomson [note 1] IND55.07 v LIB
Kingsford Smith (NSW) Peter Garrett ALP55.16
Rankin (Qld) Craig Emerson ALP55.41
Fremantle (WA) Melissa Parke ALP55.70
Oxley (Qld) Bernie Ripoll ALP55.77
Chisholm (Vic) Anna Burke ALP55.78
Perth (WA) Stephen Smith ALP55.88
Fairly safe
Hindmarsh (SA) Steve Georganas ALP56.08
Bass (Tas) Geoff Lyons ALP56.74
Werriwa (NSW) Laurie Ferguson ALP56.75
Barton (NSW) Robert McClelland ALP56.86
Richmond (NSW) Justine Elliot ALP56.99
Braddon (Tas) Sid Sidebottom ALP57.48
Adelaide (SA) Kate Ellis ALP57.52
Bruce (Vic) Alan Griffin ALP57.71
Batman (Vic) Martin Ferguson ALP57.75 v GRN
McMahon (NSW) Chris Bowen ALP57.81
Melbourne Ports (Vic) Michael Danby ALP57.89
Griffith (Qld) Kevin Rudd ALP58.46
Fowler (NSW) Chris Hayes ALP58.76
Watson (NSW) Tony Burke ALP59.14
Canberra (ACT) Gai Brodtmann ALP59.15
McEwen (Vic) Rob Mitchell ALP59.18
Bendigo (Vic) Steve Gibbons ALP59.42
Safe
Isaacs (Vic) Mark Dreyfus ALP60.41
Wakefield (SA) Nick Champion ALP60.53
Franklin (Tas) Julie Collins ALP60.82
Jagajaga (Vic) Jenny Macklin ALP61.15
Ballarat (Vic) Catherine King ALP61.70
Makin (SA) Tony Zappia ALP62.00
Throsby (NSW) Stephen Jones ALP62.11
Blaxland (NSW) Jason Clare ALP62.23
Lyons (Tas) Dick Adams ALP62.29
Chifley (NSW) Ed Husic ALP62.34
Hunter (NSW) Joel Fitzgibbon ALP62.48
Newcastle (NSW) Sharon Grierson ALP62.49
Charlton (NSW) Greg Combet ALP62.67
Shortland (NSW) Jill Hall ALP62.85
Cunningham (NSW) Sharon Bird ALP63.17
Corio (Vic) Richard Marles ALP63.47
Hotham (Vic) Simon Crean ALP63.96
Holt (Vic) Anthony Byrne ALP63.97
Fraser (ACT) Andrew Leigh ALP64.20
Kingston (SA) Amanda Rishworth ALP64.55
Sydney (NSW) Tanya Plibersek ALP67.07
Maribyrnong (Vic) Bill Shorten ALP67.49
Very safe
Calwell (Vic) Maria Vamvakinou ALP70.06
Scullin (Vic) Harry Jenkins ALP70.53
Port Adelaide (SA) Mark Butler ALP70.91
Lalor (Vic) Julia Gillard ALP72.12
Wills (Vic) Kelvin Thomson ALP73.53
Gorton (Vic) Brendan O'Connor ALP73.63
Gellibrand (Vic) Nicola Roxon ALP74.13
Non-government seats
Marginal
Hasluck (WA) Ken Wyatt LIB50.57
Boothby (SA) Andrew Southcott LIB50.62
Aston (Vic) Alan Tudge LIB50.67
Dunkley (Vic) Bruce Billson LIB51.04
Brisbane (Qld) Teresa Gambaro LNP51.13
Macquarie (NSW) Louise Markus LIB51.26
Forde (Qld) Bert van Manen LNP51.63
Solomon (NT) Natasha Griggs CLP51.75
Casey (Vic) Tony Smith LIB51.86
Longman (Qld) Wyatt Roy LNP51.92
Herbert (Qld) Ewen Jones LNP52.17
Canning (WA) Don Randall LIB52.19
Dawson (Qld) George Christensen LNP52.43
Swan (WA) Steve Irons LIB52.53
Bonner (Qld) Ross Vasta LNP52.82
Macarthur (NSW) Russell Matheson LIB53.02
Bennelong (NSW) John Alexander LIB53.12
O'Connor (WA) Tony Crook NWA53.56 v LIB
Flynn (Qld) Ken O'Dowd LNP53.58
Sturt (SA) Christopher Pyne LIB53.60
Fisher (Qld) Peter Slipper [note 2] IND54.13 v ALP
McMillan (Vic) Russell Broadbent LIB54.21
Leichhardt (Qld) Warren Entsch LNP54.55
Dickson (Qld) Peter Dutton LNP55.13
Hughes (NSW) Craig Kelly LIB55.17
Gilmore (NSW) Joanna Gash LIB55.32
Paterson (NSW) Bob Baldwin LIB55.33
Higgins (Vic) Kelly O'Dwyer LIB55.40
Stirling (WA) Michael Keenan LIB55.55
Wannon (Vic) Dan Tehan LIB55.66
Fairly safe
Goldstein (Vic) Andrew Robb LIB56.01
Cowan (WA) Luke Simpkins LIB56.29
Fairfax (Qld) Alex Somlyay LNP56.95
Ryan (Qld) Jane Prentice LNP57.16
Mayo (SA) Jamie Briggs LIB57.29
Kooyong (Vic) Josh Frydenberg LIB57.45
Menzies (Vic) Kevin Andrews LIB58.65
Hume (NSW) Alby Schultz LIB58.72
Forrest (WA) Nola Marino LIB58.74
Pearce (WA) Judi Moylan LIB58.86
Flinders (Vic) Greg Hunt LIB59.14
Cowper (NSW) Luke Hartsuyker NAT59.27
Indi (Vic) Sophie Mirabella LIB58.99
Safe
Wright (Qld) Scott Buchholz LNP60.15
McPherson (Qld) Karen Andrews LNP60.28
Hinkler (Qld) Paul Neville LNP60.39
Bowman (Qld) Andrew Laming LNP60.39
Calare (NSW) John Cobb NAT60.74
Grey (SA) Rowan Ramsey LIB61.16
Moore (WA) Mal Washer LIB61.19
Gippsland (Vic) Darren Chester NAT61.45
Tangney (WA) Dennis Jensen LIB62.32
Cook (NSW) Scott Morrison LIB62.66
Barker (SA) Patrick Secker LIB63.01
Warringah (NSW) Tony Abbott LIB63.09
Durack (WA) Barry Haase LIB63.67
North Sydney (NSW) Joe Hockey LIB64.06
Fadden (Qld) Stuart Robert LNP64.19
Farrer (NSW) Sussan Ley LIB64.51
Wentworth (NSW) Malcolm Turnbull LIB64.86
Wide Bay (Qld) Warren Truss LNP65.61
Mackellar (NSW) Bronwyn Bishop LIB65.72
Curtin (WA) Julie Bishop LIB66.19
Berowra (NSW) Philip Ruddock LIB66.20
Mitchell (NSW) Alex Hawke LIB67.16
Moncrieff (Qld) Steven Ciobo LNP67.49
Riverina (NSW) Michael McCormack NAT68.17
Bradfield (NSW) Paul Fletcher LIB68.18
Groom (Qld) Ian Macfarlane LNP68.53
Parkes (NSW) Mark Coulton NAT68.86
Murray (Vic) Sharman Stone LIB69.58
Very safe
Maranoa (Qld) Bruce Scott LNP72.89
Mallee (Vic) John Forrest NAT73.26
Crossbench seats
Kennedy (Qld) Bob Katter KAP68.34 v LNP
Melbourne (Vic) Adam Bandt GRN55.91 v ALP
Denison (Tas) Andrew Wilkie IND51.21 v ALP
Lyne (NSW) Rob Oakeshott IND62.73 v NAT
New England (NSW) Tony Windsor IND71.52 v NAT

See also

Notes

  1. This seat is held by an Independent MP who was formerly a Labor MP but switched to Independent following allegations of criminal misconduct currently (Aug 2013) before the courts. It has a notional majority of Labor Party voters.
  2. This seat is held by an Independent MP, but has a notional majority of Liberal Party voters.

References

  1. Two Candidate Preferred by Division: AEC
  2. Electoral matrix: APH Archived 2008-02-20 at the Wayback Machine
  3. "National seat status" (PDF). Australian Electoral Commission. April 2013. pp. 5–6, 8. Retrieved 13 April 2013.