Post-election pendulum for the 1990 Australian federal election

Last updated

The Mackerras pendulum as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or instant-runoff voting.

The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the crossbenches according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two party preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.

Government seats (78) [1]
Marginal
Stirling WA Ron Edwards ALP0.2
Richmond NSW Neville Newell ALP0.5
Page NSW Harry Woods ALP0.7
Cowan WA Carolyn Jakobsen ALP0.9
Kennedy Qld Rob Hulls ALP1.4
Canning WA George Gear ALP1.8
Fisher Qld Michael Lavarch ALP2.0
Melbourne Ports Vic Clyde Holding ALP2.1
Moreton Qld Garrie Gibson ALP2.3
Petrie Qld Gary Johns ALP2.3
Cunningham NSW Stewart West ALP2.4 v DEM
Swan WA Kim Beazley ALP2.4
Makin SA Peter Duncan ALP2.4
Jagajaga Vic Peter Staples ALP2.6
Robertson NSW Frank Walker ALP2.8
Barton NSW Gary Punch ALP3.1
Burke Vic Neil O'Keefe ALP3.3
Calare NSW David Simmons ALP3.5
Leichhardt Qld John Gayler ALP3.5
Adelaide SA Bob Catley ALP3.7
Hinkler Qld Brian Courtice ALP4.0
Corio Vic Gordon Scholes ALP4.2
Hotham Vic Simon Crean ALP4.2
Eden-Monaro NSW Jim Snow ALP4.3
Forde Qld Mary Crawford ALP4.5
Herbert Qld Ted Lindsay ALP4.9
Kingston SA Gordon Bilney ALP5.0
Northern Territory NT Warren Snowdon ALP5.0
Brand WA Wendy Fatin ALP5.2
Perth WA Ric Charlesworth ALP5.2
Hindmarsh SA John Scott ALP5.3
Brisbane Qld Arch Bevis ALP5.5
Rankin Qld David Beddall ALP5.5
Canberra ACT Ros Kelly ALP5.8
Fairly safe
Denison Tas Duncan Kerr ALP6.4
Grey SA Lloyd O'Neil ALP6.5
Hughes NSW Robert Tickner ALP6.6
Phillip NSW Jeannette McHugh ALP6.6
Holt Vic Michael Duffy ALP6.9
Calwell Vic Andrew Theophanous ALP7.1
Maribyrnong Vic Alan Griffiths ALP7.2
Capricornia Qld Keith Wright ALP7.3
Bowman Qld Con Sciacca ALP7.5
Lilley Qld Elaine Darling ALP7.7
St George NSW Stephen Dubois ALP7.8
Banks NSW Daryl Melham ALP7.9
Wills Vic Bob Hawke ALP7.9
Parramatta NSW Paul Elliott ALP8.3
Fremantle WA John Dawkins ALP8.3
Hunter NSW Eric Fitzgibbon ALP8.4
Greenway NSW Russ Gorman ALP8.8
Lalor Vic Barry Jones ALP9.0
Scullin Vic Harry Jenkins ALP9.4
Safe
Lindsay NSW Ross Free ALP10.1
Throsby NSW Colin Hollis ALP10.2
Kalgoorlie WA Graeme Campbell ALP10.2
Griffith Qld Ben Humphreys ALP10.3
Dobell NSW Michael Lee ALP10.6
Fraser ACT John Langmore ALP11.3
Oxley Qld Les Scott ALP12.0
Blaxland NSW Paul Keating ALP12.2
Macarthur NSW Stephen Martin ALP12.7
Newcastle NSW Allan Morris ALP12.8 v IND
Grayndler NSW Leo McLeay ALP13.3
Port Adelaide SA Rod Sawford ALP13.3
Prospect NSW Janice Crosio ALP14.0
Werriwa NSW John Kerin ALP14.0
Fowler NSW Ted Grace ALP14.2
Shortland NSW Peter Morris ALP14.3
Kingsford Smith NSW Laurie Brereton ALP15.0
Charlton NSW Bob Brown ALP15.7
Bonython SA Neal Blewett ALP15.9
Reid NSW Laurie Ferguson ALP16.1
Batman Vic Brian Howe ALP17.4
Melbourne Vic Gerry Hand ALP17.5
Gellibrand Vic Ralph Willis ALP18.5
Very safe
Chifley NSW Roger Price ALP20.1
Sydney NSW Peter Baldwin ALP21.4
Opposition seats (69)
Marginal
Hawker SA Chris Gallus LIB0.01
Dawson Qld Ray Braithwaite NAT0.1
Lowe NSW Bob Woods LIB0.6
Corinella Vic Russell Broadbent LIB0.7
Bendigo Vic Bruce Reid LIB1.1
Dunkley Vic Frank Ford LIB1.2
La Trobe Vic Bob Charles LIB1.4
Ballarat Vic Michael Ronaldson LIB1.9
Franklin Tas Bruce Goodluck LIB2.1
Lyons Tas Max Burr LIB2.1
Deakin Vic Ken Aldred LIB2.4
McEwen Vic Fran Bailey LIB3.2
Macquarie NSW Alasdair Webster LIB3.6
Fadden Qld David Jull LIB3.8
Bass Tas Warwick Smith LIB4.3
Gilmore NSW John Sharp NAT4.4
McMillan Vic John Riggall LIB4.4
Riverina-Darling NSW Noel Hicks NAT4.5
Aston Vic Peter Nugent LIB4.6
Wide Bay Qld Warren Truss NAT4.9
Flinders Vic Peter Reith LIB5.2
Isaacs Vic Rod Atkinson LIB5.7
Goldstein Vic David Kemp LIB6.0
Fairly safe
New England NSW Ian Sinclair NAT6.3
Chisholm Vic Michael Wooldridge LIB6.3
Moore WA Paul Filing LIB6.9
Wentworth NSW John Hewson LIB7.2
Ryan Qld John Moore LIB7.2
Cook NSW Don Dobie LIB7.3
Cowper NSW Garry Nehl NAT7.3
Lyne NSW Bruce Cowan NAT7.3
Fairfax Qld Alex Somlyay LIB7.5
Sturt SA Ian Wilson LIB7.7
Hume NSW Wal Fife LIB8.2
Casey Vic Bob Halverson LIB8.2
Braddon Tas Chris Miles LIB8.4
Pearce WA Fred Chaney LIB8.9
Dundas NSW Phillip Ruddock LIB9.3
Bruce Vic Julian Beale LIB9.3
Moncrieff Qld Kathy Sullivan LIB9.5
Warringah NSW Michael MacKellar LIB9.9
Forrest WA Geoff Prosser LIB9.9
Safe
Bennelong NSW John Howard LIB10.3
Parkes NSW Michael Cobb NAT10.7
Boothby SA Steele Hall LIB10.7
Corangamite Vic Stewart McArthur LIB10.8
McPherson Qld John Bradford LIB11.0
Mackellar NSW Jim Carlton LIB11.1
Gwydir NSW John Anderson NAT11.2
Mayo SA Alexander Downer LIB11.6
Higgins Vic Peter Costello LIB11.8
Tangney WA Peter Shack LIB11.8
Groom Qld Bill Taylor LIB12.2
Wannon Vic David Hawker LIB12.7
Berowra NSW Harry Edwards LIB12.8
Curtin WA Allan Rocher LIB12.8
Wakefield SA Neil Andrew LIB12.9
Maranoa Qld Bruce Scott NAT13.2
Barker SA Ian McLachlan LIB13.6
Indi Vic Ewen Cameron LIB14.2
Menzies Vic Neil Brown LIB14.3
Kooyong Vic Andrew Peacock LIB14.8
Farrer NSW Tim Fischer NAT17.8
Gippsland Vic Peter McGauran NAT18.9
Very safe
Mitchell NSW Alan Cadman LIB20.3
O'Connor WA Wilson Tuckey LIB21.9
Bradfield NSW David Connolly LIB22.3
Murray Vic Bruce Lloyd NAT23.3
Mallee Vic Peter Fisher NAT23.8
Crossbench seats (1)
North Sydney NSW Ted Mack IND7.7 v LIB

References

  1. Carr, Adam. "1990 House of Representatives Results". Psephos. Retrieved 16 June 2025.