Post-election pendulum for the 2007 Australian federal election

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The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. Designed for the outcome of the 2007 federal election, the pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament, 83 Labor, 55 Liberal, 10 National, and 2 independent, according to the percentage point margin on a two candidate preferred basis, as elected in 2007. [1] The two candidate result is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties in an election, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Swing is never uniform, but in practice variations of swing among the Australian states usually tend to cancel each other out. Seats are arranged in safeness categories according to the Australian Electoral Commission's classification of safeness. "Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent. [2]

Government seats
Australian Labor Party
Marginal
Robertson (NSW) Belinda Neal ALP50.11
Flynn (Qld) Chris Trevor ALP50.16
Solomon (NT) Damian Hale ALP50.19
Corangamite (Vic) Darren Cheeseman ALP50.85
Bass (Tas) Jodie Campbell ALP51.00
Hasluck (WA) Sharryn Jackson ALP51.26
Bennelong (NSW) Maxine McKew ALP51.40
Deakin (Vic) Mike Symon ALP51.41
Braddon (Tas) Sid Sidebottom ALP51.44
Petrie (Qld) Yvette D'Ath ALP52.05
Page (NSW) Janelle Saffin ALP52.36
Forde (Qld) Brett Raguse ALP52.91
Dawson (Qld) James Bidgood ALP53.21
Eden-Monaro (NSW) Mike Kelly ALP53.40
Longman (Qld) Jon Sullivan ALP53.57
Dobell (NSW) Craig Thomson ALP53.90
Leichhardt (Qld) Jim Turnour ALP54.03
Kingston (SA) Amanda Rishworth ALP54.42
Blair (Qld) Shayne Neumann ALP54.48
Franklin (Tas) Julie Collins ALP54.48
Bonner (Qld) Kerry Rea ALP54.53
Melbourne (Vic) Lindsay Tanner ALP54.71 v GRN
Moreton (Qld) Graham Perrett ALP54.75
Hindmarsh (SA) Steve Georganas ALP55.05
Brand (WA) Gary Gray ALP55.62
Fairly safe
Bendigo (Vic) Steve Gibbons ALP56.13
Wakefield (SA) Nick Champion ALP56.59
Brisbane (Qld) Arch Bevis ALP56.76
Lindsay (NSW) David Bradbury ALP56.78
Parramatta (NSW) Julie Owens ALP56.88
Macquarie (NSW) Bob Debus ALP57.04
Melbourne Ports (Vic) Michael Danby ALP57.15
Lowe (NSW) John Murphy ALP57.37
Chisholm (Vic) Anna Burke ALP57.38
Isaacs (Vic) Mark Dreyfus ALP57.69
Makin (SA) Tony Zappia ALP57.70
Ballarat (Vic) Catherine King ALP58.15
Bruce (Vic) Alan Griffin ALP58.32
Adelaide (SA) Kate Ellis ALP58.53
Lilley (Qld) Wayne Swan ALP58.59
Lyons (Tas) Dick Adams ALP58.78
Perth (WA) Stephen Smith ALP58.85
Richmond (NSW) Justine Elliot ALP58.87
Corio (Vic) Richard Marles ALP58.93
Jagajaga (Vic) Jenny Macklin ALP58.98
Fremantle (WA) Melissa Parke ALP59.14
Safe
Banks (NSW) Daryl Melham ALP61.08
Lingiari (NT) Warren Snowdon ALP61.16
Holt (Vic) Anthony Byrne ALP61.63
Rankin (Qld) Craig Emerson ALP61.74
Canberra (ACT) Annette Ellis ALP61.82
Barton (NSW) Robert McClelland ALP62.10
Griffith (Qld) Kevin Rudd ALP62.32
Capricornia (Qld) Kirsten Livermore ALP62.71
Charlton (NSW) Greg Combet ALP62.87
Hotham (Vic) Simon Crean ALP63.00
Kingsford Smith (NSW) Peter Garrett ALP63.29
Prospect (NSW) Chris Bowen ALP63.46
Oxley (Qld) Bernie Ripoll ALP64.13
Shortland (NSW) Jill Hall ALP64.74
Fraser (ACT) Bob McMullan ALP65.07
Werriwa (NSW) Chris Hayes ALP65.24
Maribyrnong (Vic) Bill Shorten ALP65.32
Lalor (Vic) Julia Gillard ALP65.53
Denison (Tas) Duncan Kerr ALP65.63
Newcastle (NSW) Sharon Grierson ALP65.91
Hunter (NSW) Joel Fitzgibbon ALP65.92
Reid (NSW) Laurie Ferguson ALP66.80
Cunningham (NSW) Sharon Bird ALP68.13
Fowler (NSW) Julia Irwin ALP68.25
Blaxland (NSW) Jason Clare ALP68.37
Calwell (Vic) Maria Vamvakinou ALP69.33
Sydney (NSW) Tanya Plibersek ALP69.50
Port Adelaide (SA) Mark Butler ALP69.75
Very safe
Watson (NSW) Tony Burke ALP70.33
Chifley (NSW) Roger Price ALP70.66
Scullin (Vic) Harry Jenkins ALP70.85
Gorton (Vic) Brendan O'Connor ALP71.22
Gellibrand (Vic) Nicola Roxon ALP71.46
Wills (Vic) Kelvin Thomson ALP72.41
Throsby (NSW) Jennie George ALP73.46
Grayndler (NSW) Anthony Albanese ALP74.93
Batman (Vic) Martin Ferguson ALP75.95
Non-government seats
Liberal/National coalition
Marginal
McEwen (Vic) Fran Bailey LP50.01
Bowman (Qld) Andrew Laming LP50.04
Swan (WA) Steve Irons LP50.11
Dickson (Qld) Peter Dutton LP50.13
Herbert (Qld) Peter Lindsay LP50.21
La Trobe (Vic) Jason Wood LP50.51
Macarthur (NSW) Pat Farmer LP50.72
Sturt (SA) Christopher Pyne LP50.94
Cowper (NSW) Luke Hartsuyker NP51.23
Stirling (WA) Michael Keenan LP51.29
Paterson (NSW) Bob Baldwin LP51.51
Hinkler (Qld) Paul Neville NP51.69
Cowan (WA) Luke Simpkins LP51.71
Hughes (NSW) Danna Vale LP52.16
Kalgoorlie (WA) Barry Haase LP52.58
Boothby (SA) Andrew Southcott LP52.93
Fairfax (Qld) Alex Somlyay LP53.01
Fisher (Qld) Peter Slipper LP53.10
Ryan (Qld) Michael Johnson LP53.82
Wentworth (NSW) Malcolm Turnbull LP53.85
Dunkley (Vic) Bruce Billson LP54.04
Gilmore (NSW) Joanna Gash LP54.07
Hume (NSW) Alby Schultz LP54.16
Grey (SA) Rowan Ramsey LP54.43
Greenway (NSW) Louise Markus LP54.50
McMillan (Vic) Russell Broadbent LP54.79
Aston (Vic) Chris Pearce LP55.05
North Sydney (NSW) Joe Hockey LP55.38
Canning (WA) Don Randall LP55.58
Forrest (WA) Nola Marino LP55.83
Gippsland (Vic) Peter McGauran NP55.91
Casey (Vic) Tony Smith LP55.93
Fairly safe
Menzies (Vic) Kevin Andrews LP56.02
Goldstein (Vic) Andrew Robb LP56.05
Cook (NSW) Scott Morrison LP56.57
Higgins (Vic) Peter Costello LP57.04
Mayo (SA) Alexander Downer LP57.06
Wannon (Vic) David Hawker LP57.47
Groom (Qld) Ian Macfarlane LP58.22
Flinders (Vic) Greg Hunt LP58.25
Wide Bay (Qld) Warren Truss NP58.47
Lyne (NSW) Mark Vaile NP58.58
Tangney (WA) Dennis Jensen LP58.68
McPherson (Qld) Margaret May LP58.83
Berowra (NSW) Philip Ruddock LP58.94
Pearce (WA) Judi Moylan LP59.07
Moore (WA) Mal Washer LP59.17
Indi (Vic) Sophie Mirabella LP59.19
Barker (SA) Patrick Secker LP59.45
Warringah (NSW) Tony Abbott LP59.50
Kooyong (Vic) Petro Georgiou LP59.53
Safe
Fadden (Qld) Stuart Robert LP60.20
Farrer (NSW) Sussan Ley LP61.17
Mitchell (NSW) Alex Hawke LP61.59
Calare (NSW) John Cobb NP62.05
Mackellar (NSW) Bronwyn Bishop LP62.42
Parkes (NSW) Mark Coulton NP63.04
Bradfield (NSW) Brendan Nelson LP63.45
Curtin (WA) Julie Bishop LP63.57
Moncrieff (Qld) Steven Ciobo LP64.01
Maranoa (Qld) Bruce Scott NP64.44
Riverina (NSW) Kay Hull NP66.23
O'Connor (WA) Wilson Tuckey LP66.55
Murray (Vic) Sharman Stone LP68.26
Very safe
Mallee (Vic) John Forrest NP71.27
Independents
Kennedy (Qld) Bob Katter IND66.29 v ALP
New England (NSW) Tony Windsor IND74.33 v NP

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