Post-election pendulum for the 2016 Australian federal election

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The Coalition won the 2016 federal election with a one-seat majority 76 of 150 lower house seats. Labor holds 69 seats while crossbenchers hold the remaining five.

Classification of seats as marginal, fairly safe or safe is applied by the independent Australian Electoral Commission using the following definition: "Where a winning party receives less than 56% of the vote, the seat is classified as 'marginal', 56–60% is classified as 'fairly safe' and more than 60% is considered 'safe'." [1]

Pendulum

The Mackerras pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or IRV.

The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the crossbenches according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two party preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.

Government seats
Marginal
Capricornia (Qld) Michelle Landry LNP50.63
Forde (Qld) Bert van Manen LNP50.63
Gilmore (NSW) Ann Sudmalis LIB50.73
Flynn (Qld) Ken O'Dowd LNP51.04
Robertson (NSW) Lucy Wicks LIB51.14
Chisholm (Vic) Julia Banks LIB51.24
Dunkley (Vic) Chris Crewther LIB51.43
Banks (NSW) David Coleman LIB51.44
La Trobe (Vic) Jason Wood LIB51.46
Dickson (Qld) Peter Dutton LNP51.60
Petrie (Qld) Luke Howarth LNP51.65
Grey (SA) Rowan Ramsey LIB51.95 v NXT
Hasluck (WA) Ken Wyatt LIB52.05
Page (NSW) Kevin Hogan NAT52.30
Corangamite (Vic) Sarah Henderson LIB53.13
Dawson (Qld) George Christensen LNP53.34
Bonner (Qld) Ross Vasta LNP53.39
Boothby (SA) Nicolle Flint LIB53.50
Swan (WA) Steve Irons LIB53.59
Pearce (WA) Christian Porter LIB53.63
Leichhardt (Qld) Warren Entsch LNP53.95
Cowper (NSW) Luke Hartsuyker NAT54.56 v IND
Reid (NSW) Craig Laundy LIB54.69
Barker (SA) Tony Pasin LIB54.74 v NXT
Murray (Vic) Damian Drum NAT55.13 v LIB
Deakin (Vic) Michael Sukkar LIB55.68
Sturt (SA) Christopher Pyne LIB55.89
Brisbane (Qld) Trevor Evans LNP55.92
Fairly safe
McMillan (Vic) Russell Broadbent LIB56.03
Casey (Vic) Tony Smith LIB56.06
Stirling (WA) Michael Keenan LIB56.12
Canning (WA) Andrew Hastie LIB56.79
Bowman (Qld) Andrew Laming LNP57.07
Flinders (Vic) Greg Hunt LIB57.77
Higgins (Vic) Kelly O'Dwyer LIB57.99 v GRN
Wide Bay (Qld) Llew O'Brien LNP58.14
Hinkler (Qld) Keith Pitt LNP58.42
New England (NSW) Barnaby Joyce NAT58.52 v IND
Aston (Vic) Alan Tudge LIB58.59
Wannon (Vic) Dan Tehan LIB58.96
Fisher (Qld) Andrew Wallace LNP59.06
Ryan (Qld) Jane Prentice LNP59.09
Hughes (NSW) Craig Kelly LIB59.33
Wright (Qld) Scott Buchholz LNP59.62
Bennelong (NSW) John Alexander LIB59.72
Safe
Hume (NSW) Angus Taylor LIB60.18
Menzies (Vic) Kevin Andrews LIB60.56
Fairfax (Qld) Ted O'Brien LNP60.89
Moore (WA) Ian Goodenough LIB61.02
Fadden (Qld) Stuart Robert LNP61.05
Durack (WA) Melissa Price LIB61.06
Tangney (WA) Ben Morton LIB61.07
Warringah (NSW) Tony Abbott LIB61.55 v GRN
Lyne (NSW) David Gillespie NAT61.63
McPherson (Qld) Karen Andrews LNP61.64
Calare (NSW) Andrew Gee NAT61.81
Forrest (WA) Nola Marino LIB62.56
Goldstein (Vic) Tim Wilson LIB62.68
Kooyong (Vic) Josh Frydenberg LIB63.34
North Sydney (NSW) Trent Zimmerman LIB63.61
Moncrieff (Qld) Steven Ciobo LNP64.94
O'Connor (WA) Rick Wilson LIB65.04
Parkes (NSW) Mark Coulton NAT65.10
Groom (Qld) John McVeigh LNP65.31
Cook (NSW) Scott Morrison LIB65.39
Mackellar (NSW) Jason Falinski LIB65.74
Maranoa (Qld) David Littleproud LNP65.86 v ONP
Riverina (NSW) Michael McCormack NAT66.44
Berowra (NSW) Julian Leeser LIB66.45
Wentworth (NSW) Malcolm Turnbull LIB67.75
Mitchell (NSW) Alex Hawke LIB67.82
Gippsland (Vic) Darren Chester NAT68.43
Farrer (NSW) Sussan Ley LIB70.53
Curtin (WA) Julie Bishop LIB70.70
Bradfield (NSW) Paul Fletcher LIB71.04
Mallee (Vic) Andrew Broad NAT71.32
Non-government seats
Marginal
Herbert (Qld) Cathy O'Toole ALP50.02
Hindmarsh (SA) Steve Georganas ALP50.58
Cowan (WA) Anne Aly ALP50.68
Longman (Qld) Susan Lamb ALP50.79
Batman (Vic) David Feeney ALP51.03 v GRN
Lindsay (NSW) Emma Husar ALP51.38
Melbourne Ports (Vic) Michael Danby ALP51.38
Griffith (Qld) Terri Butler ALP51.60
Macquarie (NSW) Susan Templeman ALP52.19
Braddon (Tas) Justine Keay ALP52.20
Lyons (Tas) Brian Mitchell ALP52.31
Eden-Monaro (NSW) Mike Kelly ALP52.93
Perth (WA) Tim Hammond ALP53.33
Bendigo (Vic) Lisa Chesters ALP53.74
Richmond (NSW) Justine Elliot ALP53.96
Moreton (Qld) Graham Perrett ALP54.02
Bruce (Vic) Julian Hill ALP54.08
Adelaide (SA) Kate Ellis ALP54.65
Jagajaga (Vic) Jenny Macklin ALP54.67
Dobell (NSW) Emma McBride ALP54.81
Wills (Vic) Peter Khalil ALP54.88 v GRN
Lilley (Qld) Wayne Swan ALP55.32
Isaacs (Vic) Mark Dreyfus ALP55.73
Fairly safe
Solomon (NT) Luke Gosling ALP56.00
Bass (Tas) Ross Hart ALP56.09
Greenway (NSW) Michelle Rowland ALP56.31
Burt (WA) Matt Keogh ALP57.11
Ballarat (Vic) Catherine King ALP57.32
Hotham (Vic) Clare O'Neil ALP57.48
Fremantle (WA) Josh Wilson ALP57.52
Parramatta (NSW) Julie Owens ALP57.67
McEwen (Vic) Rob Mitchell ALP57.85
Werriwa (NSW) Anne Stanley ALP58.20
Barton (NSW) Linda Burney ALP58.30
Macarthur (NSW) Mike Freelander ALP58.33
Lingiari (NT) Warren Snowdon ALP58.42
Canberra (ACT) Gai Brodtmann ALP58.46
Kingsford Smith (NSW) Matt Thistlethwaite ALP58.57
Blair (Qld) Shayne Neumann ALP58.88
Oxley (Qld) Milton Dick ALP59.08
Makin (SA) Tony Zappia ALP59.65
Shortland (NSW) Pat Conroy ALP59.94
Corio (Vic) Richard Marles ALP59.99
Safe
Franklin (Tas) Julie Collins ALP60.72
Paterson (NSW) Meryl Swanson ALP60.74
Wakefield (SA) Nick Champion ALP60.97
Rankin (Qld) Jim Chalmers ALP61.30
Brand (WA) Madeleine King ALP61.43
McMahon (NSW) Chris Bowen ALP62.11
Maribyrnong (Vic) Bill Shorten ALP62.31
Hunter (NSW) Joel Fitzgibbon ALP62.46
Cunningham (NSW) Sharon Bird ALP63.32
Lalor (Vic) Joanne Ryan ALP63.44
Whitlam (NSW) Stephen Jones ALP63.72
Newcastle (NSW) Sharon Claydon ALP63.84
Fenner (ACT) Andrew Leigh ALP63.89
Holt (Vic) Anthony Byrne ALP64.17
Port Adelaide (SA) Mark Butler ALP64.86 v NXT
Sydney (NSW) Tanya Plibersek ALP65.31
Grayndler (NSW) Anthony Albanese ALP65.82 v GRN
Kingston (SA) Amanda Rishworth ALP67.05
Scullin (Vic) Andrew Giles ALP67.28
Fowler (NSW) Chris Hayes ALP67.49
Watson (NSW) Tony Burke ALP67.58
Calwell (Vic) Maria Vamvakinou ALP67.87
Gellibrand (Vic) Tim Watts ALP68.23
Chifley (NSW) Ed Husic ALP69.19
Gorton (Vic) Brendan O'Connor ALP69.45
Blaxland (NSW) Jason Clare ALP69.48
Crossbench seats
Indi (Vic) Cathy McGowan IND54.83 v LIB
Mayo (SA) Rebekha Sharkie NXT54.97 v LIB
Kennedy (Qld) Bob Katter KAP61.12 v LNP
Denison (Tas) Andrew Wilkie IND67.78 v ALP
Melbourne (Vic) Adam Bandt GRN68.48 v LIB

Related Research Articles

The term swing refers to the extent of change in voter support, typically from one election or opinion poll to another, expressed as a positive or negative percentage point. For the Australian House of Representatives and the lower or unicameral houses of the parliaments of all the states and territories except Tasmania and the ACT, as well as Tasmania's upper house, Australia employs preferential voting in single-member constituencies. Under the full-preference instant-runoff voting system, in each seat the candidate with the lowest vote is eliminated and their preferences are distributed, which is repeated until only two candidates remain. While every seat has a two-candidate preferred (TCP) result, seats where the major parties have come first and second are commonly referred to as having a two-party-preferred (TPP) result. The concept of "swing" in Australian elections is not simply a function of the difference between the votes of the two leading candidates, as it is in Britain. To know the majority of any seat, and therefore the swing necessary for it to change hands, it is necessary to know the preferences of all the voters, regardless of their first preference votes. It is not uncommon in Australia for candidates who have comfortable leads on the first count to fail to win the seat, because "preference flows" go against them.

The Mackerras pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or IRV.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Two-party-preferred vote</span> Result of election after distribution of preferences

In Australian politics, the two-party-preferred vote is the result of an election or opinion poll after preferences have been distributed to the highest two candidates, who in some cases can be independents. For the purposes of TPP, the Liberal/National Coalition is usually considered a single party, with Labor being the other major party. Typically the TPP is expressed as the percentages of votes attracted by each of the two major parties, e.g. "Coalition 50%, Labor 50%", where the values include both primary votes and preferences. The TPP is an indicator of how much swing has been attained/is required to change the result, taking into consideration preferences, which may have a significant effect on the result.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2010 South Australian state election</span>

The 2010 South Australian state election elected members to the 52nd Parliament of South Australia on 20 March 2010. All seats in the House of Assembly or lower house, whose current members were elected at the 2006 election, and half the seats in the Legislative Council or upper house, last filled at the 2002 election, became vacant.

The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. Designed for the outcome of the 2007 federal election, the pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament, 83 Labor, 55 Liberal, 10 National, and 2 independent, according to the percentage point margin on a two candidate preferred basis, as elected in 2007. The two candidate result is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties in an election, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Swing is never uniform, but in practice variations of swing among the Australian states usually tend to cancel each other out. Seats are arranged in safeness categories according to the Australian Electoral Commission's classification of safeness. "Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2008 Northern Territory general election</span>

General elections were held in the Northern Territory of Australia on 9 August 2008. Of the 25 seats in the Legislative Assembly, 23 were contested; two safe Labor seats were uncontested. The incumbent centre-left Labor Party (ALP), led by Chief Minister Paul Henderson won a narrow third term victory against the opposition centre-right Country Liberal Party (CLP), led by Terry Mills. Labor suffered a massive and unexpected swing against it, to hold a one-seat majority in the new parliament.

The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. Designed for the outcome of the 2010 federal election, the pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament, 72 Labor, 72 Coalition, 1 Nationals WA, 1 Green and 4 independent, according to the percentage point margin on a two candidate preferred basis. The two party result is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties in an election, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Swing is never uniform, but in practice variations of swing among the Australian states usually tend to cancel each other out. Seats are arranged in safeness categories according to the Australian Electoral Commission's classification of safeness. "Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2012 Northern Territory general election</span>

A general election was held in the Northern Territory on Saturday 25 August 2012, which elected all 25 members of the Legislative Assembly in the unicameral Northern Territory Parliament.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2014 South Australian state election</span>

The 2014 South Australian state election elected members to the 53rd Parliament of South Australia on 15 March 2014, to fill all 47 seats in the House of Assembly and 11 of 22 seats in the Legislative Council. The 12-year-incumbent Australian Labor Party (SA) government, led by Premier Jay Weatherill, won its fourth consecutive four-year term in government, a record 16 years of Labor government, defeating the opposition Liberal Party of Australia (SA), led by Opposition Leader Steven Marshall.

The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. Designed for the outcome of the 2010 Victorian state election, the pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament, according to the percentage point margin on a two candidate preferred basis. The two party result is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties in an election, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Swing is never uniform, but in practice variations of swings usually tend to cancel each other out. "Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

The following is a pendulum based on the outcome of the 2010 federal election and changes since, including the redistributions of seats in South Australia and Victoria. It is a Mackerras pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras, which works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament according to the percentage point margin on a two-candidate-preferred basis. The two-party result is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties in an election, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Swings are never uniform, but in practice variations of swing among the Australian states usually tend to cancel each other out. Seats are arranged in safeness categories according to the Australian Electoral Commission's (AEC) classification of safeness. "Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent. The swings for South Australian and Victorian seats are notional, based on calculations by the AEC.

At the 2016 federal election of the 150 House of Representatives seats the Liberal/National Coalition won 76, a one-seat majority, Labor won 69 seats and crossbenchers won the remaining five. A redistribution in 2017/18 changed the representation entitlements. For the next election, the number of seats in the House will increase to 151, South Australia will lose a seat, Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) will gain one seat each.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2017 Western Australian state election</span> State general election for Western Australia

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The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. Based upon the outcome of the 2007 federal election and changes before the 2010 election, the pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament, 83 Labor, 55 Liberal, 9 National, and 3 independent, according to the percentage point margin on a two party preferred basis.

The Coalition won the 2013 federal election with 90 of 150 lower house seats on a current 17-seat, 3.65-point two-party swing, defeating the 6-year Labor government. Labor holds 55 seats while crossbenchers hold the remaining five. The Division of Fairfax was the last seat to be declared.

This is a Mackerras pendulum for the 2016 Australian federal election.

The Labor party won the 2018 state election by winning 55 of the 88 lower house seats. The coalition won 27 seats while the Greens and independents won 3 each.

The Coalition won the 2019 federal election with a three-seat majority of 77 of 151 lower house seats. Labor holds 68 seats, and crossbenchers hold the remaining six.

The Mackerras pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or IRV.

The Australian Labor Party won the 2022 federal election, winning 77 of 151 seats in the House of Representatives. The Coalition holds 58 seats, and crossbenchers hold the remaining 16.

References

  1. Division Classifications, Virtual Tally Room 2016, Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 21 August 2016.