Electorate opinion polling for the 2016 Australian federal election

Last updated

Various research and polling firms conducted opinion polling prior to the 2016 federal election in individual electorates across Australia, in relation to voting intentions in the Australian House of Representatives.

Contents

New South Wales

DateSeat 2CP vote
L/NP ALP IND L/NP swingSeat classificationSample size
25 Jun 2016 Reid (NSW) [1] 52%48%−1.3Marginal L/NP?
25 Jun 2016 Macarthur (NSW) [1] 50%50%−3.3Marginal L/NP?
25 Jun 2016 Lindsay (NSW) [1] 51%49%−2.0Marginal L/NP?
25 Jun 2016 Gilmore (NSW) [1] 51%49%−2.8Marginal L/NP?
25 Jun 2016 Dobell (NSW) [1] 51%49%+1.2Notional marginal ALP?
25 Jun 2016 Banks (NSW) [1] 52%48%−0.8Marginal L/NP?
24 Jun 2016 Cowper (NSW) [2] 50%50%−13.2Safe L/NP628
23 Jun 2016 Eden-Monaro (NSW) [3] 45%55%−7.9Marginal L/NP636
23 Jun 2016 Dobell (NSW) [3] 47%53%−2.8Notional marginal ALP616
23 Jun 2016 Gilmore (NSW) [3] 47%53%−6.8Marginal L/NP632
23 Jun 2016 Lindsay (NSW) [3] 46%54%−7.0Marginal L/NP610
23 Jun 2016 Macquarie (NSW) [3] 46%54%−8.5Marginal L/NP636
23 Jun 2016 Page (NSW) [3] 46%54%−7.1Marginal L/NP647
21 Jun 2016 Eden-Monaro (NSW) [4] 45%55%−7.9Marginal L/NP719
21 Jun 2016 Lindsay (NSW) [4] 51%49%−4.0Marginal L/NP656
21 Jun 2016 Page (NSW) [4] 48%52%−5.1Marginal L/NP788
20 Jun 2016 New England (NSW) [5] 51%49%−18.5Safe L/NP523
18 Jun 2016 Robertson (NSW) [6] 47%53%−6.1Marginal L/NP?
18 Jun 2016 Paterson (NSW) [6] 43%57%−6.7Notional marginal ALP?
17 Jun 2016 Lindsay (NSW) [7] 53%47%0.0Marginal L/NP502
17 Jun 2016 Robertson (NSW) [7] 51%49%−2.1Marginal L/NP537
17 Jun 2016 Macarthur (NSW) [7] 50%50%−3.3Marginal L/NP509
15 Jun 2016 Cowper (NSW) [8] 53.8%46.2%−9.4Safe L/NP842
11 Jun 2016 Dobell (NSW) [9] 49%51%−0.8Notional marginal ALP628
11 Jun 2016 Lindsay (NSW) [9] 54%46%+1.0Marginal L/NP?
31 May 2016 Wentworth (NSW) [10] 58%42%−10.9Safe L/NP626
19 May 2016 Macarthur (NSW) [11] 49%51%−4.4Marginal L/NP628
14 May 2016 Macarthur (NSW) [12] 49%51%−4.3Marginal L/NP514
14 May 2016 Banks (NSW) [13] 50%50%−2.8Marginal L/NP501
14 May 2016 Dobell (NSW) [13] 50%50%+0.2Notional marginal ALP504
14 May 2016 Lindsay (NSW) [13] 54%46%+1.0Marginal L/NP554

Victoria

DateSeat 2CP vote
L/NP ALP GRN IND L/NP swingSeat classificationSample size
25 Jun 2016 Dunkley (Vic) [14] 53%47%−2.6Marginal L/NP?
25 Jun 2016 Corangamite (Vic) [14] 53%47%−0.9Marginal L/NP?
25 Jun 2016 Bruce (Vic) [14] 48%52%−0.2Marginal ALP?
25 Jun 2016 McEwen (Vic) [14] 48%52%−1.8Marginal ALP?
20 Jun 2016 Batman (Vic) [15] 45%55%N/ASafe ALP1100
17 Jun 2016 Batman (Vic) [7] 53%47%N/ASafe ALP?
17 Jun 2016 Corangamite (Vic) [7] 51%49%−2.9Marginal L/NP509
17 Jun 2016 Dunkley (Vic) [7] 52%48%−3.6Marginal L/NP500
13 Jun 2016 Menzies (Vic) [4] 61%39%−3.4Safe L/NP719
11 Jun 2016 Corangamite (Vic) [9] 51%49%−2.9Marginal L/NP?
11 Jun 2016 Deakin (Vic) [9] 52%48%−1.2Marginal L/NP?
3–4 Jun 2016 Higgins (Vic) [16] 53%47%−6.9Fairly safe L/NP1118
26 May 2016 Corangamite (Vic) [17] 54%46%+0.1Marginal L/NP770
13 May 2016 Dunkley (Vic) [18] 48%52%−7.6Marginal L/NP?

Queensland

DateSeat 2CP vote
L/NP ALP KAP L/NP swingSeat classificationSample size
25 Jun 2016 Kennedy (Qld) [14] 42%58%−5.8Marginal KAP?
25 Jun 2016 Longman (Qld) [14] 53%47%−3.9Fairly safe L/NP?
25 Jun 2016 Brisbane (Qld) [14] 52%48%−2.3Marginal L/NP?
25 Jun 2016 Petrie (Qld) [14] 46%54%−4.5Marginal L/NP?
25 Jun 2016 Capricornia (Qld) [14] 49%51%−1.8Marginal L/NP?
25 Jun 2016 Griffith (Qld) [14] 47%53%0.0Marginal ALP?
17 Jun 2016 Herbert (Qld) [7] 54%46%−2.2Fairly safe L/NP505
17 Jun 2016 Capricornia (Qld) [7] 50%50%−0.8Marginal L/NP529
17 Jun 2016 Brisbane (Qld) [7] 51%49%−3.3Marginal L/NP594
11 Jun 2016 Bonner (Qld) [9] 56%44%+2.3Marginal L/NP?
2 Jun 2016 Longman (Qld) [19] 50%50%−6.9Fairly safe L/NP836

Western Australia

DateSeat 2CP vote
L/NP ALP L/NP swingSeat classificationSample size
18 Jun 2016 Pearce (WA) [6] 51%49%−8.3Fairly safe L/NP?
18 Jun 2016 Hasluck (WA) [6] 50%50%−6.0Fairly safe L/NP?
17 Jun 2016 Burt (WA) [7] 48%52%−8.1Fairly safe L/NP?
16 Jun 2016 Hasluck (WA) [20] 53%47%−3.0Fairly safe L/NP753
11 Jun 2016 Cowan (WA) [9] 50%50%−4.5Marginal L/NP?
10 May 2016 Cowan (WA) [21] 49%51%−5.5Marginal L/NP731

South Australia

DateSeat 2CP vote
L/NP ALP NXT L/NP swingSeat classificationSample size
29 Jun 2016 Adelaide (SA) [22] 47%53%+0.9Marginal ALP518
29 Jun 2016 Port Adelaide (SA) [22] 33%67%−3.0Safe ALP500+
25 Jun 2016 Hindmarsh (SA) [14] 50%50%−1.9Marginal L/NP500+
25 Jun 2016 Boothby (SA) [14] 53%47%−4.1Fairly safe L/NP500+
20 Jun 2016 Barker (SA) [23] 48%52%−18.6Safe L/NP869
20 Jun 2016 Adelaide (SA) [24] 51%49%+4.9Marginal ALP364
17 Jun 2016 Sturt (SA) [25] 58%42%−2.1Safe L/NP596
16 Jun 2016 Mayo (SA) [7] 48%52%−14.5Safe L/NP681
11 Jun 2016 Mayo (SA) [9] 45.7%54.3%−16.8Safe L/NP?
9 Jun 2016 Grey (SA) [26] 46%54%−17.5Safe L/NP665
22 May 2016 Sturt (SA) [13] 51%49%−9.1Safe L/NP762
16 May 2016 Mayo (SA) [13] 48.5%51.5%−14.0Safe L/NP681

Tasmania

DateSeat 2CP vote
L/NP ALP IND L/NP swingSeat classificationSample size
25 Jun 2016 Bass (Tas) [1] 50%50%−4.0Marginal L/NP538
25 Jun 2016 Braddon (Tas) [1] 50%50%−2.6Marginal L/NP566
25 Jun 2016 Denison (Tas) [1] 35%63%N/ASafe IND552
25 Jun 2016 Franklin (Tas) [1] 41%59%−3.9Marginal ALP550
25 Jun 2016 Lyons (Tas) [1] 45%55%−6.2Marginal L/NP540
17 Jun 2016 Bass (Tas) [7] 52%48%−2.0Marginal L/NP517
31 May 2016 Bass (Tas) [27] 49%51%−5.0Marginal L/NP824
15 May 2016 Denison (Tas) [28] 34%66%N/ASafe IND596
15 May 2016 Bass (Tas) [29] 51%49%−3.0Marginal L/NP632
15 May 2016 Lyons (Tas) [29] 51%49%−0.2Marginal L/NP602
15 May 2016 Franklin (Tas) [29] 46%54%+1.1Marginal ALP597
15 May 2016 Braddon (Tas) [29] 53%47%+0.4Marginal L/NP592

Northern Territory

DateSeat 2CP vote
L/NP ALP L/NP swingSeat classificationSample size
22−23 Jun 2016 Solomon (NT) [30] 39%61%−12.4Marginal L/NP513

References

Notes
    Citations
    1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 "ReachTEL: 51-49 to Coalition – the Poll Bludger". 25 June 2016. Retrieved 25 June 2016.
    2. ↑ "ReachTEL: 51-49 to Coalition - The Poll Bludger". 24 June 2016. Retrieved 24 June 2016.
    3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Another electorate polling round-up: Poll Bludger 23 June 2016
    4. 1 2 3 4 Electorate polling round-up: Poll Bludger 21 June 2016
    5. ↑ "Nocookies". The Australian. Retrieved 27 June 2016.
    6. 1 2 3 4 "Highlights of week six - The Poll Bludger". Blogs.crikey.com.au. Retrieved 27 June 2016.
    7. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 "Nocookies". The Australian. Retrieved 27 June 2016.
    8. ↑ Paul Karp (15 June 2016). "Rob Oakeshott 'uplifted' after poll shows large swing against Nationals | Australia news". The Guardian. Retrieved 27 June 2016.
    9. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Mark Kenny (11 June 2016). "2016 election polls: Labor behind, Xenophon candidates set to displace Liberals". Smh.com.au. Retrieved 15 June 2016.
    10. ↑ Malcolm Turnbull facing 10% swing in Wentworth as his popularity plummets: SMH 5 June 2016
    11. ↑ "7 News – Macarthur Poll: ReachTEL 19 May 2016". Archived from the original on 20 September 2016. Retrieved 2 July 2016.
    12. ↑ "Galaxy: 54-46 to federal Coalition in Queensland – The Poll Bludger". Blogs.crikey.com.au. Retrieved 15 June 2016.
    13. 1 2 3 4 5 No Cookies | The Advertiser
    14. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 ReachTEL: 51-49 to Coalition
    15. ↑ Richard Willingham (20 June 2016). "Federal election 2016: Poll points to Greens Batman win". Theage.com.au. Retrieved 27 June 2016.
    16. ↑ Mark Hawthorne (13 June 2016). "Federal election 2016: Shock poll result for Kelly O'Dwyer. Is Higgins the 'Indi of 2016'?". Smh.com.au. Retrieved 15 June 2016.
    17. ↑ "7 News – Corangamite Poll: ReachTEL 26 May 2016". Archived from the original on 2 February 2019. Retrieved 2 February 2019.
    18. ↑ Libs struggling in Dunkley without Billson: The Australian 13 May 2016
    19. ↑ "7 News – Longman poll – 2 July 2016: ReachTEL". Archived from the original on 2 February 2019. Retrieved 2 February 2019.
    20. ↑ "Blog". ReachTEL. 17 June 2016. Retrieved 27 June 2016.
    21. ↑ "Barnett backlash dents hopes of WA Liberals: The West Australian 2 Jun 2016". Archived from the original on 1 July 2016. Retrieved 2 February 2019.
    22. 1 2 Kate Ellis and Mark Butler expected to keep their seats, The Advertiser poll shows: The Advertiser 30 June 2016
    23. ↑ Election 2016: Malcolm Turnbull could lose another seat to independent Nick Xenophon’s team - Herald Sun 20 June 2016
    24. ↑ Labor frontbencher Kate Ellis headed for defeat to Liberals in Adelaide, ALP poll shows: The Advertiser 20 June 2016
    25. ↑ No Cookies | The Advertiser
    26. ↑ "Blog". ReachTEL. 10 June 2016. Archived from the original on 21 September 2016. Retrieved 15 June 2016.
    27. ↑ Narrow margins for Nikolic in Bass: poll – 9news.com.au 3 Jun 2016
    28. ↑ "ReachTEL Tasmanian electorates polling – The Poll Bludger". Blogs.crikey.com.au. Retrieved 15 June 2016.
    29. 1 2 3 4 "Category". The Mercury. 14 May 2016. Retrieved 15 June 2016.
    30. ↑ An independent poll shows Solomon MP Natasha Griggs will struggle to retain her seat at the federal election: NT News (News Ltd) 27 June 2016
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