 2016 Australian federal election |
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| National results |
| State and territory results |
Various research and polling firms conducted opinion polling prior to the 2016 federal election in individual electorates across Australia, in relation to voting intentions in the Australian House of Representatives.
| Date | Seat | 2CP vote | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L/NP | ALP | IND | L/NP swing | Seat classification | Sample size | ||
| 25 Jun 2016 | Reid (NSW) [1] | 52% | 48% | −1.3 | Marginal L/NP | ? | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Macarthur (NSW) [1] | 50% | 50% | −3.3 | Marginal L/NP | ? | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Lindsay (NSW) [1] | 51% | 49% | −2.0 | Marginal L/NP | ? | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Gilmore (NSW) [1] | 51% | 49% | −2.8 | Marginal L/NP | ? | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Dobell (NSW) [1] | 51% | 49% | +1.2 | Notional marginal ALP | ? | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Banks (NSW) [1] | 52% | 48% | −0.8 | Marginal L/NP | ? | |
| 24 Jun 2016 | Cowper (NSW) [2] | 50% | 50% | −13.2 | Safe L/NP | 628 | |
| 23 Jun 2016 | Eden-Monaro (NSW) [3] | 45% | 55% | −7.9 | Marginal L/NP | 636 | |
| 23 Jun 2016 | Dobell (NSW) [3] | 47% | 53% | −2.8 | Notional marginal ALP | 616 | |
| 23 Jun 2016 | Gilmore (NSW) [3] | 47% | 53% | −6.8 | Marginal L/NP | 632 | |
| 23 Jun 2016 | Lindsay (NSW) [3] | 46% | 54% | −7.0 | Marginal L/NP | 610 | |
| 23 Jun 2016 | Macquarie (NSW) [3] | 46% | 54% | −8.5 | Marginal L/NP | 636 | |
| 23 Jun 2016 | Page (NSW) [3] | 46% | 54% | −7.1 | Marginal L/NP | 647 | |
| 21 Jun 2016 | Eden-Monaro (NSW) [4] | 45% | 55% | −7.9 | Marginal L/NP | 719 | |
| 21 Jun 2016 | Lindsay (NSW) [4] | 51% | 49% | −4.0 | Marginal L/NP | 656 | |
| 21 Jun 2016 | Page (NSW) [4] | 48% | 52% | −5.1 | Marginal L/NP | 788 | |
| 20 Jun 2016 | New England (NSW) [5] | 51% | 49% | −18.5 | Safe L/NP | 523 | |
| 18 Jun 2016 | Robertson (NSW) [6] | 47% | 53% | −6.1 | Marginal L/NP | ? | |
| 18 Jun 2016 | Paterson (NSW) [6] | 43% | 57% | −6.7 | Notional marginal ALP | ? | |
| 17 Jun 2016 | Lindsay (NSW) [7] | 53% | 47% | 0.0 | Marginal L/NP | 502 | |
| 17 Jun 2016 | Robertson (NSW) [7] | 51% | 49% | −2.1 | Marginal L/NP | 537 | |
| 17 Jun 2016 | Macarthur (NSW) [7] | 50% | 50% | −3.3 | Marginal L/NP | 509 | |
| 15 Jun 2016 | Cowper (NSW) [8] | 53.8% | 46.2% | −9.4 | Safe L/NP | 842 | |
| 11 Jun 2016 | Dobell (NSW) [9] | 49% | 51% | −0.8 | Notional marginal ALP | 628 | |
| 11 Jun 2016 | Lindsay (NSW) [9] | 54% | 46% | +1.0 | Marginal L/NP | ? | |
| 31 May 2016 | Wentworth (NSW) [10] | 58% | 42% | −10.9 | Safe L/NP | 626 | |
| 19 May 2016 | Macarthur (NSW) [11] | 49% | 51% | −4.4 | Marginal L/NP | 628 | |
| 14 May 2016 | Macarthur (NSW) [12] | 49% | 51% | −4.3 | Marginal L/NP | 514 | |
| 14 May 2016 | Banks (NSW) [13] | 50% | 50% | −2.8 | Marginal L/NP | 501 | |
| 14 May 2016 | Dobell (NSW) [13] | 50% | 50% | +0.2 | Notional marginal ALP | 504 | |
| 14 May 2016 | Lindsay (NSW) [13] | 54% | 46% | +1.0 | Marginal L/NP | 554 | |
| Date | Seat | 2CP vote | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L/NP | ALP | GRN | IND | L/NP swing | Seat classification | Sample size | ||
| 25 Jun 2016 | Dunkley (Vic) [14] | 53% | 47% | −2.6 | Marginal L/NP | ? | ||
| 25 Jun 2016 | Corangamite (Vic) [14] | 53% | 47% | −0.9 | Marginal L/NP | ? | ||
| 25 Jun 2016 | Bruce (Vic) [14] | 48% | 52% | −0.2 | Marginal ALP | ? | ||
| 25 Jun 2016 | McEwen (Vic) [14] | 48% | 52% | −1.8 | Marginal ALP | ? | ||
| 20 Jun 2016 | Batman (Vic) [15] | 45% | 55% | N/A | Safe ALP | 1100 | ||
| 17 Jun 2016 | Batman (Vic) [7] | 53% | 47% | N/A | Safe ALP | ? | ||
| 17 Jun 2016 | Corangamite (Vic) [7] | 51% | 49% | −2.9 | Marginal L/NP | 509 | ||
| 17 Jun 2016 | Dunkley (Vic) [7] | 52% | 48% | −3.6 | Marginal L/NP | 500 | ||
| 13 Jun 2016 | Menzies (Vic) [4] | 61% | 39% | −3.4 | Safe L/NP | 719 | ||
| 11 Jun 2016 | Corangamite (Vic) [9] | 51% | 49% | −2.9 | Marginal L/NP | ? | ||
| 11 Jun 2016 | Deakin (Vic) [9] | 52% | 48% | −1.2 | Marginal L/NP | ? | ||
| 3–4 Jun 2016 | Higgins (Vic) [16] | 53% | 47% | −6.9 | Fairly safe L/NP | 1118 | ||
| 26 May 2016 | Corangamite (Vic) [17] | 54% | 46% | +0.1 | Marginal L/NP | 770 | ||
| 13 May 2016 | Dunkley (Vic) [18] | 48% | 52% | −7.6 | Marginal L/NP | ? | ||
| Date | Seat | 2CP vote | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L/NP | ALP | KAP | L/NP swing | Seat classification | Sample size | ||
| 25 Jun 2016 | Kennedy (Qld) [14] | 42% | 58% | −5.8 | Marginal KAP | ? | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Longman (Qld) [14] | 53% | 47% | −3.9 | Fairly safe L/NP | ? | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Brisbane (Qld) [14] | 52% | 48% | −2.3 | Marginal L/NP | ? | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Petrie (Qld) [14] | 46% | 54% | −4.5 | Marginal L/NP | ? | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Capricornia (Qld) [14] | 49% | 51% | −1.8 | Marginal L/NP | ? | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Griffith (Qld) [14] | 47% | 53% | 0.0 | Marginal ALP | ? | |
| 17 Jun 2016 | Herbert (Qld) [7] | 54% | 46% | −2.2 | Fairly safe L/NP | 505 | |
| 17 Jun 2016 | Capricornia (Qld) [7] | 50% | 50% | −0.8 | Marginal L/NP | 529 | |
| 17 Jun 2016 | Brisbane (Qld) [7] | 51% | 49% | −3.3 | Marginal L/NP | 594 | |
| 11 Jun 2016 | Bonner (Qld) [9] | 56% | 44% | +2.3 | Marginal L/NP | ? | |
| 2 Jun 2016 | Longman (Qld) [19] | 50% | 50% | −6.9 | Fairly safe L/NP | 836 | |
| Date | Seat | 2CP vote | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L/NP | ALP | L/NP swing | Seat classification | Sample size | ||
| 18 Jun 2016 | Pearce (WA) [6] | 51% | 49% | −8.3 | Fairly safe L/NP | ? |
| 18 Jun 2016 | Hasluck (WA) [6] | 50% | 50% | −6.0 | Fairly safe L/NP | ? |
| 17 Jun 2016 | Burt (WA) [7] | 48% | 52% | −8.1 | Fairly safe L/NP | ? |
| 16 Jun 2016 | Hasluck (WA) [20] | 53% | 47% | −3.0 | Fairly safe L/NP | 753 |
| 11 Jun 2016 | Cowan (WA) [9] | 50% | 50% | −4.5 | Marginal L/NP | ? |
| 10 May 2016 | Cowan (WA) [21] | 49% | 51% | −5.5 | Marginal L/NP | 731 |
| Date | Seat | 2CP vote | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L/NP | ALP | NXT | L/NP swing | Seat classification | Sample size | ||
| 29 Jun 2016 | Adelaide (SA) [22] | 47% | 53% | +0.9 | Marginal ALP | 518 | |
| 29 Jun 2016 | Port Adelaide (SA) [22] | 33% | 67% | −3.0 | Safe ALP | 500+ | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Hindmarsh (SA) [14] | 50% | 50% | −1.9 | Marginal L/NP | 500+ | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Boothby (SA) [14] | 53% | 47% | −4.1 | Fairly safe L/NP | 500+ | |
| 20 Jun 2016 | Barker (SA) [23] | 48% | 52% | −18.6 | Safe L/NP | 869 | |
| 20 Jun 2016 | Adelaide (SA) [24] | 51% | 49% | +4.9 | Marginal ALP | 364 | |
| 17 Jun 2016 | Sturt (SA) [25] | 58% | 42% | −2.1 | Safe L/NP | 596 | |
| 16 Jun 2016 | Mayo (SA) [7] | 48% | 52% | −14.5 | Safe L/NP | 681 | |
| 11 Jun 2016 | Mayo (SA) [9] | 45.7% | 54.3% | −16.8 | Safe L/NP | ? | |
| 9 Jun 2016 | Grey (SA) [26] | 46% | 54% | −17.5 | Safe L/NP | 665 | |
| 22 May 2016 | Sturt (SA) [13] | 51% | 49% | −9.1 | Safe L/NP | 762 | |
| 16 May 2016 | Mayo (SA) [13] | 48.5% | 51.5% | −14.0 | Safe L/NP | 681 | |
| Date | Seat | 2CP vote | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L/NP | ALP | IND | L/NP swing | Seat classification | Sample size | ||
| 25 Jun 2016 | Bass (Tas) [1] | 50% | 50% | −4.0 | Marginal L/NP | 538 | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Braddon (Tas) [1] | 50% | 50% | −2.6 | Marginal L/NP | 566 | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Denison (Tas) [1] | 35% | 63% | N/A | Safe IND | 552 | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Franklin (Tas) [1] | 41% | 59% | −3.9 | Marginal ALP | 550 | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Lyons (Tas) [1] | 45% | 55% | −6.2 | Marginal L/NP | 540 | |
| 17 Jun 2016 | Bass (Tas) [7] | 52% | 48% | −2.0 | Marginal L/NP | 517 | |
| 31 May 2016 | Bass (Tas) [27] | 49% | 51% | −5.0 | Marginal L/NP | 824 | |
| 15 May 2016 | Denison (Tas) [28] | 34% | 66% | N/A | Safe IND | 596 | |
| 15 May 2016 | Bass (Tas) [29] | 51% | 49% | −3.0 | Marginal L/NP | 632 | |
| 15 May 2016 | Lyons (Tas) [29] | 51% | 49% | −0.2 | Marginal L/NP | 602 | |
| 15 May 2016 | Franklin (Tas) [29] | 46% | 54% | +1.1 | Marginal ALP | 597 | |
| 15 May 2016 | Braddon (Tas) [29] | 53% | 47% | +0.4 | Marginal L/NP | 592 | |
| Date | Seat | 2CP vote | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L/NP | ALP | L/NP swing | Seat classification | Sample size | ||
| 22−23 Jun 2016 | Solomon (NT) [30] | 39% | 61% | −12.4 | Marginal L/NP | 513 |
The Division of Grey is an Australian electoral division in South Australia. The division was one of the seven established when the former Division of South Australia was redistributed on 2 October 1903 and is named for Sir George Grey, who was Governor of South Australia from 1841 to 1845.
The Division of Mayo is an Australian electoral division located to the east and south of Adelaide, South Australia. Created in the state redistribution of 3 September 1984, the division is named after Helen Mayo, a social activist and the first woman elected to an Australian University Council. The 9,315 km² rural seat covers an area from the Barossa Valley in the north to Cape Jervis in the south. Taking in the Adelaide Hills, Fleurieu Peninsula and Kangaroo Island regions, its largest population centre is Mount Barker. Its other population centres are Aldgate, Bridgewater, Littlehampton, McLaren Vale, Nairne, Stirling, Strathalbyn and Victor Harbor, and its smaller localities include American River, Ashbourne, Balhannah, Brukunga, Carrickalinga, Charleston, Cherry Gardens, Clarendon, Crafers, Cudlee Creek, Currency Creek, Delamere, Echunga, Forreston, Goolwa, Gumeracha, Hahndorf, Houghton, Inglewood, Kersbrook, Kingscote, Langhorne Creek, Lobethal, Macclesfield, McLaren Flat, Meadows, Middleton, Milang, Mount Compass, Mount Pleasant, Mount Torrens, Mylor, Myponga, Normanville, Norton Summit, Oakbank, Penneshaw, Piccadilly, Port Elliot, Second Valley, Springton, Summertown, Uraidla, Willunga, Woodchester, Woodside, Yankalilla, and parts of Birdwood, Old Noarlunga and Upper Sturt.
The Division of Sturt is an Australian electoral division in South Australia. It was proclaimed at the South Australian redistribution of 11 May 1949. Sturt was named for Captain Charles Sturt, nineteenth century explorer. Following the loss of Boothby in 2022, it is currently the only seat in Adelaide held by the Liberal Party.
The state election for the 51st Parliament of South Australia was held in the Australian state of South Australia on 18 March 2006 to elect all members of the South Australian House of Assembly and 11 members of the South Australian Legislative Council. The election was conducted by the independent State Electoral Office.
In Australian politics, the two-party-preferred vote is the result of an election or opinion poll after preferences have been distributed to the highest two candidates, who in some cases can be independents. For the purposes of TPP, the Liberal/National Coalition is usually considered a single party, with Labor being the other major party. Typically the TPP is expressed as the percentages of votes attracted by each of the two major parties, e.g. "Coalition 50%, Labor 50%", where the values include both primary votes and preferences. The TPP is an indicator of how much swing has been attained/is required to change the result, taking into consideration preferences, which may have a significant effect on the result.
The 2010 Australian federal election was held on Saturday, 21 August 2010 to elect members of the 43rd Parliament of Australia. The incumbent centre-left Australian Labor Party led by Prime Minister Julia Gillard won a second term against the opposition centre-right Liberal Party of Australia led by Opposition Leader Tony Abbott and Coalition partner the National Party of Australia, led by Warren Truss, after Labor formed a minority government with the support of three independent MPs and one Australian Greens MP.
Rowan Eric Ramsey is the Liberal Party of Australia member for the House of Representatives seat of Grey since the 2007 election, succeeding previous Liberal member Barry Wakelin. Grey covers most of rural South Australia − over 92 percent of the state by area.
A by-election was held for the South Australian House of Assembly seat of Frome on 17 January 2009. This was triggered by the resignation of former Premier and state Liberal MHA Rob Kerin. The seat had been retained by the Liberals at the 2006 state election on a 3.4 per cent margin, and at the 2002 state election on an 11.5 per cent margin.
The 2009 Bradfield by-election was held for the Australian House of Representatives seat of Bradfield on 5 December 2009. This was triggered as a result of the resignation of former minister and ex-Liberal Party leader Brendan Nelson. The by-election was held on the same day as the Higgins by-election.
The 2009 Higgins by-election was held for the Australian House of Representatives Division of Higgins on 5 December 2009. This was triggered by the resignation of former Treasurer and former Liberal Party deputy leader Peter Costello. The by-election was held on the same day as the Bradfield by-election.
The 2018 Tasmanian state election was held on 3 March 2018 to elect all 25 members of the Tasmanian House of Assembly.
The 2018 South Australian state election to elect members to the 54th Parliament of South Australia was held on 17 March 2018. All 47 seats in the House of Assembly or lower house, whose members were elected at the 2014 election, and 11 of 22 seats in the Legislative Council or upper house, last filled at the 2010 election, were contested. The record-16-year-incumbent Australian Labor Party (SA) government led by Premier Jay Weatherill was seeking a fifth four-year term, but was defeated by the opposition Liberal Party of Australia (SA), led by Opposition Leader Steven Marshall. Nick Xenophon's new SA Best party unsuccessfully sought to obtain the balance of power.
The 2017 Queensland state election was held on 25 November 2017 to elect all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly of Queensland, the unicameral Parliament of Queensland.
The 2015 Canning by-election was held for the Australian House of Representatives on Saturday 19 September from 8 am to 6 pm WST. The by-election in the seat of Canning was triggered by the death of sitting Liberal MP Don Randall on 21 July 2015.
Several research and polling firms conducted polls during the parliamentary term and prior to the 2016 Australian federal election on 2 July in relation to voting intention for the Australian House of Representatives and leader ratings. Most firms use the flow of preferences at the previous election to determine the two-party-preferred vote; others ask respondents to nominate their second preference before applying the preference flows at the previous election.
The 2019 Australian federal election was held on Saturday 18 May 2019 to elect members of the 46th Parliament of Australia. The election had been called following the dissolution of the 45th Parliament as elected at the 2016 double dissolution federal election. All 151 seats in the House of Representatives and 40 of the 76 seats in the Senate were up for election.
A by-election for the Australian House of Representatives seat of Bennelong was held on 16 December 2017.
A by-election for the Australian House of Representatives seat of Mayo took place on Saturday 28 July 2018, following the resignation of incumbent Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie.
A by-election for the Australian House of Representatives seat of Longman took place on Saturday 28 July 2018, following the resignation of incumbent Labor MP Susan Lamb.
In the leadup to the 2019 federal election, a number of polling companies conducted regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collected data on party's primary vote, and contained an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote. They also asked questions about views of the electorate about the major party leaders.
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