Post-election pendulum for the 2010 Australian federal election

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The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. Designed for the outcome of the 2010 federal election, the pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament, 72 Labor, 72 Coalition, 1 Nationals WA, 1 Green and 4 independent, according to the percentage point margin on a two candidate preferred basis. [1] The two party result is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties in an election, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Swing is never uniform, but in practice variations of swing among the Australian states usually tend to cancel each other out. Seats are arranged in safeness categories according to the Australian Electoral Commission's classification of safeness. "Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent. [2]

Government seats
Marginal
Corangamite (Vic) Darren Cheeseman ALP50.41
Greenway (NSW) Michelle Rowland ALP50.88
La Trobe (Vic) Laura Smyth ALP50.91
Robertson (NSW) Deborah O'Neill ALP51.00
Lindsay (NSW) David Bradbury ALP51.12
Moreton (Qld) Graham Perrett ALP51.13
Banks (NSW) Daryl Melham ALP51.45
Deakin (Vic) Mike Symon ALP52.41
Petrie (Qld) Yvette D'Ath ALP52.51
Reid (NSW) John Murphy ALP52.68
Lilley (Qld) Wayne Swan ALP53.18
Brand (WA) Gary Gray ALP53.33
Capricornia (Qld) Kirsten Livermore ALP53.68
Lingiari (NT) Warren Snowdon ALP53.70
Page (NSW) Janelle Saffin ALP54.19
Grayndler (NSW) Anthony Albanese ALP54.23 v GRN
Eden-Monaro (NSW) Mike Kelly ALP54.24
Blair (Qld) Shayne Neumann ALP54.24
Parramatta (NSW) Julie Owens ALP54.37
Dobell (NSW) Craig Thomson ALP55.07
Kingsford Smith (NSW) Peter Garrett ALP55.16
McEwen (Vic) Rob Mitchell ALP55.32
Rankin (Qld) Craig Emerson ALP55.41
Hindmarsh (SA) Steve Georganas ALP55.70
Fremantle (WA) Melissa Parke ALP55.70
Oxley (Qld) Bernie Ripoll ALP55.77
Perth (WA) Stephen Smith ALP55.88
Fairly safe
Chisholm (Vic) Anna Burke ALP56.11
Bass (Tas) Geoff Lyons ALP56.74
Werriwa (NSW) Laurie Ferguson ALP56.75
Barton (NSW) Robert McClelland ALP56.86
Richmond (NSW) Justine Elliot ALP56.99
Braddon (Tas) Sid Sidebottom ALP57.48
Melbourne Ports (Vic) Michael Danby ALP57.56
Adelaide (SA) Kate Ellis ALP57.69
McMahon (NSW) Chris Bowen ALP57.81
Batman (Vic) Martin Ferguson ALP57.86 v GRN
Bruce (Vic) Alan Griffin ALP58.12
Griffith (Qld) Kevin Rudd ALP58.46
Fowler (NSW) Chris Hayes ALP58.76
Watson (NSW) Tony Burke ALP59.14
Canberra (ACT) Gai Brodtmann ALP59.15
Bendigo (Vic) Steve Gibbons ALP59.53
Safe
Franklin (Tas) Julie Collins ALP60.82
Isaacs (Vic) Mark Dreyfus ALP61.02
Jagajaga (Vic) Jenny Macklin ALP61.52
Ballarat (Vic) Catherine King ALP61.70
Wakefield (SA) Nick Champion ALP61.95
Throsby (NSW) Stephen Jones ALP62.11
Makin (SA) Tony Zappia ALP62.20
Blaxland (NSW) Jason Clare ALP62.23
Lyons (Tas) Dick Adams ALP62.29
Chifley (NSW) Ed Husic ALP62.34
Hunter (NSW) Joel Fitzgibbon ALP62.48
Newcastle (NSW) Sharon Grierson ALP62.49
Charlton (NSW) Greg Combet ALP62.67
Shortland (NSW) Jill Hall ALP62.85
Cunningham (NSW) Sharon Bird ALP63.17
Holt (Vic) Anthony Byrne ALP63.23
Hotham (Vic) Simon Crean ALP63.50
Kingston (SA) Amanda Rishworth ALP63.91
Fraser (ACT) Andrew Leigh ALP64.20
Corio (Vic) Richard Marles ALP64.22
Maribyrnong (Vic) Bill Shorten ALP66.86
Sydney (NSW) Tanya Plibersek ALP67.07
Calwell (Vic) Maria Vamvakinou ALP69.72
Very safe
Port Adelaide (SA) Mark Butler ALP70.03
Lalor (Vic) Julia Gillard ALP72.15
Gorton (Vic) Brendan O'Connor ALP72.16
Scullin (Vic) Harry Jenkins ALP72.25
Wills (Vic) Kelvin Thomson ALP72.64
Gellibrand (Vic) Nicola Roxon ALP73.90
Independent seats − Committed to supporting Government on confidence and supply
Melbourne (Vic) Adam Bandt GRN56.04 v ALP
Denison (Tas) Andrew Wilkie IND51.21 v ALP
Lyne (NSW) Rob Oakeshott IND62.73 v NAT
New England (NSW) Tony Windsor IND71.52 v NAT
Non-government seats
Marginal
Hasluck (WA) Ken Wyatt LIB50.57
Boothby (SA) Andrew Southcott LIB50.75
Dunkley (Vic) Bruce Billson LIB51.02
Brisbane (Qld) Teresa Gambaro LNP51.13
Macquarie (NSW) Louise Markus LIB51.26
Forde (Qld) Bert van Manen LNP51.63
Solomon (NT) Natasha Griggs CLP51.75
Aston (Vic) Alan Tudge LIB51.76
Longman (Qld) Wyatt Roy LNP51.92
Herbert (Qld) Ewen Jones LNP52.17
Canning (WA) Don Randall LIB52.19
Dawson (Qld) George Christensen LNP52.43
Swan (WA) Steve Irons LIB52.53
Bonner (Qld) Ross Vasta LNP52.82
Macarthur (NSW) Russell Matheson LIB53.02
Bennelong (NSW) John Alexander LIB53.12
Sturt (SA) Christopher Pyne LIB53.43
Flynn (Qld) Ken O'Dowd LNP53.58
Fisher (Qld) Peter Slipper LNP54.13
Casey (Vic) Tony Smith LIB54.18
McMillan (Vic) Russell Broadbent LIB54.41
Leichhardt (Qld) Warren Entsch LNP54.55
Dickson (Qld) Peter Dutton LNP55.13
Hughes (NSW) Craig Kelly LIB55.17
Gilmore (NSW) Joanna Gash LIB55.32
Paterson (NSW) Bob Baldwin LIB55.33
Stirling (WA) Michael Keenan LIB55.55
Fairly safe
Cowan (WA) Luke Simpkins LIB56.29
Goldstein (Vic) Andrew Robb LIB56.47
Higgins (Vic) Kelly O'Dwyer LIB56.75
Fairfax (Qld) Alex Somlyay LNP56.95
Ryan (Qld) Jane Prentice LNP57.16
Wannon (Vic) Dan Tehan LIB57.29
Mayo (SA) Jamie Briggs LIB57.35
Kooyong (Vic) Josh Frydenberg LIB57.55
Menzies (Vic) Kevin Andrews LIB58.72
Hume (NSW) Alby Schultz LIB58.72
Forrest (WA) Nola Marino LIB58.74
Pearce (WA) Judi Moylan LIB58.86
Flinders (Vic) Greg Hunt LIB59.11
Cowper (NSW) Luke Hartsuyker NAT59.27
Indi (Vic) Sophie Mirabella LIB59.94
Safe
Wright (Qld) Scott Buchholz LNP60.15
McPherson (Qld) Karen Andrews LNP60.28
Hinkler (Qld) Paul Neville LNP60.39
Bowman (Qld) Andrew Laming LNP60.39
Calare (NSW) John Cobb NAT60.74
Grey (SA) Rowan Ramsey LIB61.16
Moore (WA) Mal Washer LIB61.19
Gippsland (Vic) Darren Chester NAT61.45
Tangney (WA) Dennis Jensen LIB62.32
Cook (NSW) Scott Morrison LIB62.66
Barker (SA) Patrick Secker LIB62.88
Warringah (NSW) Tony Abbott LIB63.09
Durack (WA) Barry Haase LIB63.67
North Sydney (NSW) Joe Hockey LIB64.06
Fadden (Qld) Stuart Robert LNP64.19
Farrer (NSW) Sussan Ley LIB64.51
Wentworth (NSW) Malcolm Turnbull LIB64.86
Wide Bay (Qld) Warren Truss LNP65.61
Mackellar (NSW) Bronwyn Bishop LIB65.72
Curtin (WA) Julie Bishop LIB66.19
Berowra (NSW) Philip Ruddock LIB66.20
Mitchell (NSW) Alex Hawke LIB67.16
Moncrieff (Qld) Steven Ciobo LNP67.49
Riverina (NSW) Michael McCormack NAT68.17
Bradfield (NSW) Paul Fletcher LIB68.18
Groom (Qld) Ian Macfarlane LNP68.53
Parkes (NSW) Mark Coulton NAT68.86
Very safe
Murray (Vic) Sharman Stone LIB70.35
Maranoa (Qld) Bruce Scott LNP72.89
Mallee (Vic) John Forrest NAT74.41
Independent seats
O'Connor (WA) Tony Crook NWA53.56 v LIB
Kennedy (Qld) Bob Katter IND68.34 v LNP

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