Post-election pendulum for the 1987 Australian federal election

Last updated

The Mackerras pendulum as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or instant-runoff voting.

The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the crossbenches according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two party preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.

Government seats (86) [1]
Marginal
Fisher Qld Michael Lavarch ALP0.5
Barton NSW Gary Punch ALP1.0
Forde Qld Mary Crawford ALP1.0
Hinkler Qld Brian Courtice ALP1.1
Hawker SA Elizabeth Harvey ALP1.2
Petrie Qld Gary Johns ALP1.4
Dunkley Vic Bob Chynoweth ALP1.7
Ballarat Vic John Mildren ALP1.9
Northern Territory NT Warren Snowdon ALP2.2
Isaacs Vic David Charles ALP2.7
Streeton Vic Tony Lamb ALP2.9
Cowan WA Carolyn Jakobsen ALP3.2
Calare NSW David Simmons ALP3.3
Makin SA Peter Duncan ALP3.4
Bendigo Vic John Brumby ALP3.5
Hunter NSW Eric Fitzgibbon ALP3.6
Aston Vic John Saunderson ALP3.6
Stirling WA Ron Edwards ALP3.6
St George NSW Stephen Dubois ALP3.7
Canning WA George Gear ALP3.8
Denison Tas Duncan Kerr ALP3.8
Phillip NSW Jeannette McHugh ALP4.1
McEwen Vic Peter Cleeland ALP4.1
McMillan Vic Barry Cunningham ALP4.3
Leichhardt Qld John Gayler ALP4.3
Eden-Monaro NSW Jim Snow ALP4.4
Burke Vic Neil O'Keefe ALP4.4
Robertson NSW Barry Cohen ALP4.6
Rankin Qld David Beddall ALP4.7
Henty Vic Joan Child ALP4.8
Kingston SA Gordon Bilney ALP4.8
Bowman Qld Con Sciacca ALP5.0
Hughes NSW Robert Tickner ALP5.1
Hindmarsh SA John Scott ALP5.1
Moore WA Allen Blanchard ALP5.2
Newcastle NSW Allan Morris ALP5.3 v IND
Grey SA Lloyd O'Neil ALP5.8
Fairly safe
Parramatta NSW John Brown ALP6.3
Brisbane Qld Manfred Cross ALP6.4
Hotham Vic Lewis Kent ALP6.5
Adelaide SA Chris Hurford ALP6.5
Brand WA Wendy Fatin ALP6.7
Kalgoorlie WA Graeme Campbell ALP6.7
Banks NSW John Mountford ALP6.8
Herbert Qld Ted Lindsay ALP6.8
Perth WA Ric Charlesworth ALP6.8
Dobell NSW Michael Lee ALP6.9
Capricornia Qld Keith Wright ALP7.0
Throsby NSW Colin Hollis ALP7.1
Maribyrnong Vic Alan Griffiths ALP7.2
La Trobe Vic Peter Milton ALP7.3
Swan WA Kim Beazley ALP8.0
Jagajaga Vic Peter Staples ALP8.2
Lilley Qld Elaine Darling ALP8.2
Blaxland NSW Paul Keating ALP8.8
Macarthur NSW Stephen Martin ALP8.9
Lindsay NSW Ross Free ALP9.0
Grayndler NSW Leo McLeay ALP9.7
Greenway NSW Russ Gorman ALP9.9
Melbourne Ports Vic Clyde Holding ALP9.9
Safe
Holt Vic Michael Duffy ALP10.4
Griffith Qld Ben Humphreys ALP10.4
Shortland NSW Peter Morris ALP11.1
Reid NSW Tom Uren ALP11.8
Canberra ACT Ros Kelly ALP12.0
Fowler NSW Ted Grace ALP12.4
Fremantle WA John Dawkins ALP12.7
Corio Vic Gordon Scholes ALP12.9
Werriwa NSW John Kerin ALP13.7
Prospect NSW Dick Klugman ALP13.9
Kingsford Smith NSW Lionel Bowen ALP14.2
Cunningham NSW Stewart West ALP14.4
Fraser ACT John Langmore ALP14.5
Oxley Qld Bill Hayden ALP14.9
Port Adelaide SA Mick Young ALP16.3
Charlton NSW Bob Brown ALP16.9
Bonython SA Neal Blewitt ALP18.1
Calwell Vic Andrew Theophanous ALP18.6
Chifley NSW Roger Price ALP19.1
Melbourne Vic Gerry Hand ALP19.4
Lalor Vic Barry Jones ALP19.5
Sydney NSW Peter Baldwin ALP19.9
Wills Vic Bob Hawke ALP19.9
Very safe
Gellibrand Vic Ralph Willis ALP20.6
Batman Vic Brian Howe ALP22.8
Scullin Vic Harry Jenkins ALP23.2
Liberal seats (43)
Marginal
Chisholm Vic Michael Wooldridge LIB0.7
Moreton Qld Don Cameron LIB0.7
Casey Vic Bob Halverson LIB1.2
Flinders Vic Peter Reith LIB1.3
Deakin Vic Julian Beale LIB1.5
Lowe NSW Bob Woods LIB1.6
Bruce Vic Ken Aldred LIB2.0
Forrest WA Geoff Prosser LIB3.1
Franklin Tas Bruce Goodluck LIB3.3
Bass Tas Warwick Smith LIB3.7
Fadden Qld David Jull LIB4.4
Lyons Tas Max Burr LIB4.4
Corangamite Vic Stewart McArthur LIB4.6
Macquarie NSW Alasdair Webster LIB5.8
Fairly safe
Cook NSW Don Dobie LIB6.1
Sturt SA Ian Wilson LIB6.6
Menzies Vic Neil Brown LIB7.3
Tangney WA Peter Shack LIB7.4
Hume NSW Wal Fife LIB7.5
Braddon Tas Chris Miles LIB7.9
Wentworth NSW John Hewson LIB8.0
Ryan Qld John Moore LIB8.9
Goldsteinn Vic Ian Macphee LIB9.5
Safe
Moncrieff Qld Kathy Sullivan LIB10.2
Bennelong NSW John Howard LIB10.6
Dundas NSW Phillip Ruddock LIB11.0
Curtin WA Allan Rocher LIB11.6
Barker SA James Porter LIB11.6
Boothby SA Steele Hall LIB11.6
Higgins Vic Roger Shipton LIB12.6
Indi Vic Ewen Cameron LIB12.6
McPherson Qld Peter White LIB12.6
Mayo SA Alexander Downer LIB12.6
Wannon Vic David Hawker LIB13.1
Mackellar NSW Jim Carlton LIB13.2
Wakefield SA Neil Andrew LIB13.7
Kooyong Vic Andrew Peacock LIB14.0
Warringah NSW Michael MacKellar LIB14.1
North Sydney NSW John Spender LIB14.2
Berowra NSW Harry Edwards LIB16.7
Very safe
O'Connor WA Wilson Tuckey LIB20.6
Mitchell NSW Alan Cadman LIB22.5
Bradfield NSW David Connolly LIB26.1
National seats (19)
Dawson Qld Ray Braithwaite NAT1.9
Kennedy Qld Bob Katter Sr. NAT3.0
Riverina-Darling NSW Noel Hicks NAT3.5
Page NSW Ian Robinson NAT4.5
Gilmore NSW John Sharp NAT6.2
Richmond NSW Charles Blunt NAT6.6
Fairfax Qld Evan Adermann NAT7.3
New England NSW Ian Sinclair NAT8.4
Wide Bay Qld Clarrie Millar NAT8.8
Cowper NSW Garry Nehl NAT9.1
Lyne NSW Bruce Cowan NAT9.8
Gwydir NSW Ralph Hunt NAT10.3
Parkes NSW Michael Cobb NAT10.8
Groom Qld Tom McVeigh NAT12.8
Maranoa Qld Ian Cameron NAT14.9
Gippsland Vic Peter McGauran NAT15.0
Farrer NSW Tim Fischer NAT15.2
Mallee Vic Peter Fisher NAT20.1
Murray Vic Bruce Lloyd NAT20.4

References

  1. Carr, Adam. "1987 House of Representatives Results". Psephos. Retrieved 23 June 2025.