Post-election pendulum for the 2019 Australian federal election

Last updated

The Coalition won the 2019 federal election with a three-seat majority of 77 of 151 lower house seats. Labor holds 68 seats, and crossbenchers hold the remaining six. [1]

Classification of seats as marginal, fairly safe or safe is applied by the independent Australian Electoral Commission using the following definition: "Where a winning party receives less than 56% of the vote, the seat is classified as 'marginal', 56–60% is classified as 'fairly safe' and more than 60% is considered 'safe'." [2]

Pendulum

The Mackerras pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster-style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or instant-runoff voting.

The pendulum works by lining up the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the crossbenches according to the percentage point margin by which they are held on a two-party preferred basis. That is also known as the swing that is required for the seat to change hands. With a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats changing hands can be predicted.

Government seats
Marginal
Bass (TAS) Bridget Archer LIB50.41
Chisholm (VIC) Gladys Liu LIB50.57
Wentworth (NSW) Dave Sharma LIB v IND51.31
Boothby (SA) Nicolle Flint LIB51.38
Swan (WA) Steve Irons LIB52.69
Braddon (TAS) Gavin Pearce LIB53.09
Reid (NSW) Fiona Martin LIB53.18
Longman (QLD) Terry Young LNP53.28
Higgins (VIC) Katie Allen LIB53.88
Leichhardt (QLD) Warren Entsch LNP54.17
Robertson (NSW) Lucy Wicks LIB54.24
La Trobe (VIC) Jason Wood LIB54.49
Dickson (QLD) Peter Dutton LNP54.64
Casey (VIC) Tony Smith LIB54.64
Deakin (VIC) Michael Sukkar LIB54.78
Brisbane (QLD) Trevor Evans LNP54.92
Lindsay (NSW) Melissa McIntosh LIB55.04
Hasluck (WA) Ken Wyatt LIB55.39
Flinders (VIC) Greg Hunt LIB55.64
Stirling (WA) Vince Connelly LIB55.65
Kooyong (VIC) Josh Frydenberg LIB v GRN55.70
Fairly safe
Ryan (QLD) Julian Simmonds LNP56.03
Banks (NSW) David Coleman LIB56.26
Cowper (NSW) Pat Conaghan NAT v IND56.79
Sturt (SA) James Stevens LIB56.87
Bennelong (NSW) John Alexander LIB56.91
Monash (VIC) Russell Broadbent LIB57.36
Bonner (QLD) Ross Vasta LNP57.41
Pearce (WA) Christian Porter LIB57.52
Menzies (VIC) Kevin Andrews LIB57.53
Goldstein (VIC) Tim Wilson LIB57.79
Herbert (QLD) Phillip Thompson LNP58.36
Petrie (QLD) Luke Howarth LNP58.40
Forde (QLD) Bert van Manen LNP58.60
Flynn (QLD) Ken O'Dowd LNP58.66
North Sydney (NSW) Trent Zimmerman LIB59.27
Page (NSW) Kevin Hogan NAT59.45
Hughes (NSW) Craig Kelly LIB59.85
Safe
Aston (VIC) Alan Tudge LIB60.13
Bowman (QLD) Andrew Laming LNP60.24
Wannon (VIC) Dan Tehan LIB60.38
Farrer (NSW) Sussan Ley LIB v IND60.94
Tangney (WA) Ben Morton LIB61.47
Canning (WA) Andrew Hastie LIB61.55
Moore (WA) Ian Goodenough LIB61.65
McPherson (QLD) Karen Andrews LNP62.20
Capricornia (QLD) Michelle Landry LNP62.35
Fisher (QLD) Andrew Wallace LNP62.70
Hume (NSW) Angus Taylor LIB62.99
Wide Bay (QLD) Llew O'Brien LNP63.15
Mackellar (NSW) Jason Falinski LIB63.22
Calare (NSW) Andrew Gee NAT63.29
Grey (SA) Rowan Ramsey LIB63.32
Fairfax (QLD) Ted O'Brien LNP63.44
Fadden (QLD) Stuart Robert LNP64.18
Curtin (WA) Celia Hammond LIB64.33
New England (NSW) Barnaby Joyce NAT v IND64.36
O'Connor (WA) Rick Wilson LIB64.48
Hinkler (QLD) Keith Pitt LNP64.50
Forrest (WA) Nola Marino LIB64.56
Wright (QLD) Scott Buchholz LNP64.58
Dawson (QLD) George Christensen LNP64.61
Durack (WA) Melissa Price LIB64.76
Lyne (NSW) David Gillespie NAT65.17
Moncrieff (QLD) Angie Bell LNP65.36
Berowra (NSW) Julian Leeser LIB65.65
Mallee (VIC) Anne Webster NAT66.23
Bradfield (NSW) Paul Fletcher LIB66.56
Gippsland (VIC) Darren Chester NAT66.67
Parkes (NSW) Mark Coulton NAT66.91
Mitchell (NSW) Alex Hawke LIB68.63
Barker (SA) Tony Pasin LIB68.94
Cook (NSW) Scott Morrison LIB69.02
Riverina (NSW) Michael McCormack NAT69.48
Nicholls (VIC) Damian Drum NAT70.03
Groom (QLD) John McVeigh LNP70.48
Maranoa (QLD) David Littleproud LNP v ONP72.49
Non-government seats
Marginal
Macquarie (NSW) Susan Templeman ALP50.19
Lilley (QLD) Anika Wells ALP50.64
Cowan (WA) Anne Aly ALP50.83
Eden-Monaro (NSW) Mike Kelly ALP50.85
Corangamite (VIC) Libby Coker ALP51.07
Blair (QLD) Shayne Neumann ALP51.21
Dobell (NSW) Emma McBride ALP51.50
Moreton (QLD) Graham Perrett ALP51.90
Gilmore (NSW) Fiona Phillips ALP52.61
Dunkley (VIC) Peta Murphy ALP52.74
Greenway (NSW) Michelle Rowland ALP52.80
Griffith (QLD) Terri Butler ALP52.86
Hunter (NSW) Joel Fitzgibbon ALP52.98
Solomon (NT) Luke Gosling ALP53.08
Parramatta (NSW) Julie Owens ALP53.50
Richmond (NSW) Justine Elliot ALP54.08
Shortland (NSW) Pat Conroy ALP54.45
Perth (WA) Patrick Gorman ALP54.93
Burt (WA) Matt Keogh ALP54.99
McEwen (VIC) Rob Mitchell ALP55.02
Paterson (NSW) Meryl Swanson ALP55.04
Lyons (TAS) Brian Mitchell ALP55.18
Lingiari (NT) Warren Snowdon ALP55.46
Werriwa (NSW) Anne Stanley ALP55.47
Hotham (VIC) Clare O'Neil ALP55.91
Fairly safe
Macnamara (VIC) Josh Burns ALP56.25
Oxley (QLD) Milton Dick ALP56.39
Isaacs (VIC) Mark Dreyfus ALP56.43
Rankin (QLD) Jim Chalmers ALP56.44
Hindmarsh (SA) Mark Butler ALP56.54
Jagajaga (VIC) Kate Thwaites ALP56.57
McMahon (NSW) Chris Bowen ALP56.64
Brand (WA) Madeleine King ALP56.66
Fremantle (WA) Josh Wilson ALP56.92
Bean (ACT) David Smith ALP57.52
Wills (VIC) Peter Khalil ALP v GRN58.17
Adelaide (SA) Steve Georganas ALP58.18
Macarthur (NSW) Mike Freelander ALP58.40
Holt (VIC) Anthony Byrne ALP58.70
Kingsford Smith (NSW) Matt Thistlethwaite ALP58.81
Bendigo (VIC) Lisa Chesters ALP59.04
Barton (NSW) Linda Burney ALP59.41
Makin (SA) Tony Zappia ALP59.72
Safe
Corio (VIC) Richard Marles ALP60.32
Fenner (ACT) Andrew Leigh ALP60.56
Whitlam (NSW) Stephen Jones ALP60.91
Ballarat (VIC) Catherine King ALP60.98
Maribyrnong (VIC) Bill Shorten ALP61.20
Kingston (SA) Amanda Rishworth ALP61.94
Franklin (TAS) Julie Collins ALP62.21
Chifley (NSW) Ed Husic ALP62.37
Lalor (VIC) Joanne Ryan ALP62.41
Cunningham (NSW) Sharon Bird ALP63.41
Watson (NSW) Tony Burke ALP63.52
Newcastle (NSW) Sharon Claydon ALP63.83
Fowler (NSW) Chris Hayes ALP63.99
Spence (SA) Nick Champion ALP64.13
Bruce (VIC) Julian Hill ALP64.15
Fraser (VIC) Daniel Mulino ALP64.18
Cooper (VIC) Ged Kearney ALP v GRN64.65
Blaxland (NSW) Jason Clare ALP64.72
Gellibrand (VIC) Tim Watts ALP64.83
Gorton (VIC) Brendan O'Connor ALP65.36
Grayndler (NSW) Anthony Albanese ALP v GRN66.30
Canberra (ACT) Alicia Payne ALP67.08
Sydney (NSW) Tanya Plibersek ALP68.67
Calwell (VIC) Maria Vamvakinou ALP68.80
Scullin (VIC) Andrew Giles ALP71.66
Crossbench seats
Indi (VIC) Helen Haines IND v LIB51.39
Mayo (SA) Rebekha Sharkie CA v LIB55.14
Warringah (NSW) Zali Steggall IND v LIB57.24
Kennedy (Qld) Bob Katter KAP v LNP63.33
Melbourne (VIC) Adam Bandt GRN v LIB71.83
Clark (TAS) Andrew Wilkie IND v ALP72.12

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References

  1. "Seat summary". AEC Tally Room. Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 20 June 2019.
  2. Division Classifications, Virtual Tally Room 2016, Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 21 August 2016.