Electorate opinion polling for the 2019 Australian federal election

Last updated

Various research and polling firms conducted opinion polling before the 2019 Australian federal election in individual electorates across Australia, in relation to voting intentions in the House of Representatives.

Contents

New South Wales

Gilmore

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB NAT GRN UAP OTH ALP LIB
18 May 2019 2019 federal election 36.2%29.2%12.5%10.0%3.4%8.8%52.6%47.8%
Mid-May 2019YouGov Galaxy [1] 500+——————52%47%
2 Jul 2016 2016 federal election 45.3%39.2%—10.5%—5.0%49.3%50.7%

Lindsay

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN UAP IND OTH LIB ALP
18 May 2019 2019 federal election 46.5%35.6%4.9%2.9%2.9%7.3%55.0%45.0%
20 Apr 2019Newspoll [2] 61841%40%4%7%—8%49%51%
2 Jul 2016 2016 federal election 39.3%41.1%3.6%—2.4%13.7%48.9%51.1%

Macquarie

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN UAP OTH ALP LIB
18 May 2019 2019 federal election 44.9%38.3%9.2%4.0%3.7%50.2%49.8%
Mid-May 2019YouGov Galaxy [1] 500+—————53%47%
2 Jul 2016 2016 federal election 38.2%35.5%11.2%—15.1%52.2%47.8%

Reid

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN UAP OTH LIB ALP
18 May 2019 2019 federal election 48.3%37.2%8.1%1.9%4.5%53.2%46.8%
Mid-May 2019YouGov Galaxy [1] 500+—————52%48%
2 Jul 2016 2016 federal election 48.8%36.3%8.5%—6.4%54.7%45.3%

Warringah

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
IND LIB ALP GRN IND UAP OTH IND LIB GRN
18 May 2019 2019 federal election 43.5%39.0%6.6%6.1%1.2%0.7%2.9%57.2%42.3%—
9 Feb 2019 (released)ReachTEL [a] [3] 61822.3%37.7%15.0%9.6%4.9%—5.7%54.0%46.0%—
2 Jul 2016 2016 federal election —51.7%14.8%12.2%12.1%—9.2%—61.6%38.4%

Queensland

Flynn

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP ONP UAP GRN OTH LNP ALP
18 May 2019 2019 federal election 37.9%28.7%19.6%4.3%3.1%6.6%58.7%41.3%
Mid-May 2019YouGov Galaxy [1] 500+———11%————
2 Jul 2016 2016 federal election 37.1%33.4%17.2%—2.8%9.6%51.0%49.0%

Herbert

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP ONP KAP GRN UAP OTH LNP ALP
18 May 2019 2019 federal election 37.1%25.5%11.1%9.8%7.3%5.7%3.5%58.4%41.6%
Mid-May 2019YouGov Galaxy [1] 500+—————14%———
20 Apr 2019Newspoll [2] 52931%29%9%10%5%14%2%50%50%
24 Jan 2019Newspoll [4] 50932%32%9%9%7%8%3%49%51%
2 Jul 2016 2016 federal election 35.5%30.5%13.5%6.9%6.3%0.4%7.0%50.0%50.0%

Victoria

Deakin

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN UAP OTH LIB ALP
18 May 2019 2019 federal election 47.8%32.5%9.0%2.1%8.6%54.8%45.2%
Mid-May 2019YouGov Galaxy [1] 500+—————51%49%
20 Apr 2019Newspoll [2] 53546%39%8%5%—51%49%
2 Jul 2016 2016 federal election 50.0%31.0%11.7%—7.2%55.7%44.3%

Flinders

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP IND GRN UAP OTH LIB ALP
18 May 2019 2019 federal election 49.4%21.2%16.8%10.2%1.2%1.1%55.7%44.3%
24 Jan 2019ReachTEL/uComms [4] [5] 500–70036.8%—————49%51%
2 Jul 2016 2016 federal election 51.6%27.0%3.1%10.7%—7.6%57.8%42.2%

Higgins

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN UAP OTH LIB ALP GRN
18 May 2019 2019 federal election 47.9%25.4%22.5%1.2%3.1%55.7%44.3%—
Mid-May 2019YouGov Galaxy [1] 500+——29%——52%—48%
24 Jan 2019ReachTEL/uComms [5] 500–700—————48%52%—
2 Jul 2016 2016 federal election 52.0%15.0%25.3%—7.7%58.0%—42.0%

Kooyong

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
LIB GRN ALP IND UAP OTH LIB GRN ALP
18 May 2019 2019 federal election 49.4%21.2%16.8%10.2%1.2%1.1%55.7%44.3%—
11 Dec 2018Environmental Research Counsel [b] [6] 1,74141%21%16%9%—8%52%48%—
11 Dec 2018ReachTEL [c] [7] [8] 81640%16%29%——8%48%—52%
2 Jul 2016 2016 federal election 58.2%18.9%19.8%3.1%——63.3%—36.7%

Western Australia

Pearce

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP UAP NAT OTH LIB ALP
18 May 2019 2019 federal election 43.7%29.1%8.7%8.2%2.5%1.3%6.5%54.8%45.2%
20 Apr 2019Newspoll [2] 50940%36%8%6%8%——50%50%
2 Jul 2016 2016 federal election 45.4%34.3%11.0%——4.7%4.7%53.6%46.4%

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Commissioned by GetUp
  2. ↑ Commissioned by the Greens
  3. ↑ Commissioned by the Construction, Forestry, Mining, Maritime and Energy Union

References

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Packham, Ben (17 May 2019). "Polls suggest Morrison well in the fight". The Australian.
  2. 1 2 3 4 Bowe, William (23 April 2019). "Newspoll: Deakin, Pearce, Herbert and Lindsay". The Poll Bludger. Archived from the original on 4 October 2024. Retrieved 2 April 2025.
  3. ↑ McCauley, Dana (9 February 2019). "GetUp poll points to Abbott electoral defeat". Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 30 March 2024. Retrieved 3 April 2025.
  4. 1 2 Bowe, William (28 January 2019). "Newspoll and ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor in Herbert and Flinders". The Poll Bludger. Archived from the original on 28 November 2024. Retrieved 3 April 2025.
  5. 1 2 Beaumont, Adrian (30 January 2019). "Poll wrap: Coalition gains in first Newspoll of 2019, but big swings to Labor in Victorian seats; NSW is tied". The Conversation. Archived from the original on 20 January 2025. Retrieved 3 April 2025.
  6. ↑ Murphy, Katharine (13 May 2019). "Greens within striking distance in Josh Frydenberg's seat of Kooyong, poll finds". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 18 September 2024. Retrieved 3 April 2025.
  7. ↑ Beaumont, Adrian (18 December 2018). "Poll wrap: Labor widens lead in Ipsos; US Democrats gained 40 House seats at midterms". The Conversation. Archived from the original on 20 July 2024. Retrieved 3 April 2025.
  8. ↑ Colebatch, Tim (4 March 2019). "Twilight of the Liberals?". Inside Story. Archived from the original on 15 September 2024. Retrieved 3 April 2025.
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