Opinion polling for the 2019 Australian federal election

Last updated

In the leadup to the 2019 federal election, a number of polling companies conducted regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collected data on party's primary vote, and contained an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote. They also asked questions about views of the electorate about the major party leaders.

Contents

Graphical summary

Aggregate data of voting intention from all opinion polling since the last election. Local regression trends for each party are shown as solid lines.

Voting intention

House of Representatives (lower house) polling
DateFirmPrimary vote TPP vote
L/NP ALP GRN ONP OTHL/NPALP
18 May 2019 election 41.44%33.34%10.4%3.08%11.74%51.53%48.47%
18 May 2019 YouGov-Galaxy (Exit Poll) [1] 39%38%10%n/a10%48%52%
15–16 May 2019 Newspoll [2] 38%37%9%3%13% [lower-alpha 1] 48.5%51.5%
13–15 May 2019YouGov-Galaxy [3] 39%37%9%3%12% [lower-alpha 2] 49%51%
12–15 May 2019 Ipsos [4] 39%33%13%4%11% [lower-alpha 3] 49%51%
10–14 May 2019 Essential [5] 38.5%36.2%9.1%6.6%9.6%48.5%51.5%
10–12 May 2019 Roy Morgan [6] 38.5%35.5%10%4%12% [lower-alpha 4] 48%52%
9–11 May 2019Newspoll [7] 39%37%9%4%11% [lower-alpha 5] 49%51%
8 May 2019Third leaders' debate
2–6 May 2019Essential [8] 38%34%12%7%9%48%52%
4–5 May 2019Roy Morgan [9] 38.5%34%11%4%12.5% [lower-alpha 6] 49%51%
2–5 May 2019Newspoll [10] 38%36%9%5%12% [lower-alpha 7] 49%51%
1–4 May 2019Ipsos [11] 36%33%14%5%12% [lower-alpha 8] 48%52%
3 May 2019Second leaders' debate
29 Apr 2019First leaders' debate
25–29 Apr 2019Essential [12] 39%37%9%6%9%49%51%
27–28 Apr 2019Roy Morgan [13] 39.5%36%9.5%2.5%12.5% [lower-alpha 9] 49%51%
26–28 Apr 2019Newspoll [14] 38%37%9%4%12% [lower-alpha 10] 49%51%
23–25 Apr 2019Galaxy [15] 37%37%9%4%13% [lower-alpha 11] 48%52%
20–21 Apr 2019Roy Morgan [16] 39%35.5%9.5%4.5%11.5% [lower-alpha 12] 49%51%
11–14 Apr 2019Newspoll [17] 39%39%9%4%9%48%52%
11 Apr 20192019 federal election campaign begins
4–8 Apr 2019Essential [18] 38%35%11%5%10%48%52%
6–7 Apr 2019Roy Morgan [19] 37%35%13.5%4%10.5% [lower-alpha 13] 47.5%52.5%
4–7 Apr 2019Newspoll [20] 38%37%9%6%10%48%52%
3–6 Apr 2019Ipsos [21] 37%34%13%5%11%47%53%
25–28 Mar 2019Galaxy [22] 35%37%10%8%10% [lower-alpha 14] 47%53%
20–25 Mar 2019Essential [23] 39%36%10%7%8%48%52%
6–11 Mar 2019Essential [24] 37%38%8%7%10%47%53%
7–10 Mar 2019Newspoll [25] 36%39%9%7%9%46%54%
20–25 Feb 2019Essential [26] 38%37%9%6%10%48%52%
21–24 Feb 2019Newspoll [27] 37%39%9%5%10%47%53%
12–15 Feb 2019Ipsos [28] 38%33%13%5%11%49%51%
6–11 Feb 2019Essential [29] 34%38%10%7%11%45%55%
7–10 Feb 2019Newspoll [30] 37%39%9%5%10%47%53%
23–31 Jan 2019Essential [31] 38%36%10%7%9%48%52%
24–27 Jan 2019Newspoll [32] 37%38%9%6%10%47%53%
9–13 Jan 2019Essential [33] 38%38%10%7%7%47%53%
13–16 Dec 2018Essential [34] 37%36%11%7%9%47%53%
12–15 Dec 2018Ipsos [35] 36%37%13%6%9%46%54%
6–9 Dec 2018Newspoll [32] 35%41%9%7%8%45%55%
29 Nov – 2 Dec 2018Essential [36] 38%39%10%6%7%46%54%
22–25 Nov 2018Newspoll [37] 34%40%9%8%9%45%55%
15–18 Nov 2018Essential [38] 37%35%11%7%10%48%52%
15–17 Nov 2018Ipsos [39] 37%34%13%5%11%48%52%
8–11 Nov 2018Newspoll [40] 35%40%9%6%10%45%55%
1–4 Nov 2018Essential [41] 36%39%10%6%9%46%54%
25–28 Oct 2018Newspoll [42] 36%39%9%6%10%46%54%
18–21 Oct 2018Essential [43] 38%37%10%7%8%47%53%
11–13 Oct 2018Newspoll [44] 37%38%11%6%8%47%53%
10–13 Oct 2018Ipsos [45] 35%35%15%5%10%45%55%
5–7 Oct 2018Essential [46] 37%36%12%5%10%47%53%
20–23 Sep 2018Essential [47] 37%36%12%5%10%47%53%
20–23 Sep 2018Newspoll [48] 36%39%10%6%9%46%54%
12–15 Sep 2018Ipsos [49] 34%31%15%7%13%47%53%
6–9 Sep 2018Essential [50] 36%37%10%8%9%46%54%
6–9 Sep 2018Newspoll [51] 34%42%10%6%8%44%56%
25–26 Aug 2018Roy Morgan [52] 36.5%36%13%2.5%12%46%54%
24–26 Aug 2018Essential [53] 35%39%10%7%9%45%55%
24–25 Aug 2018Newspoll [54] 33%41%10%7%9%44%56%
24 Aug 2018Scott Morrison elected Prime Minister in leadership spill against Malcolm Turnbull
15–18 Aug 2018Ipsos [55] 33%35%13%8%11%45%55%
9-12 Aug 2018Newspoll [56] 37%35%10%9%9%49%51%
2-2 Aug 2018ReachTEL [57] 37%34%12%8%8%48%52%
26-29 Jul 2018Newspoll [58] 39%36%10%7%8%49%51%
12-15 Jul 2018Essential [59] 40%36%10%6%8%49%51%
12-15 Jul 2018Newspoll [60] 38%36%10%7%9%49%51%
28 Jun - 1 Jul 2018Essential [61] 40%37%11%6%6%48%52%
28 Jun - 1 Jul 2018Newspoll [62] 39%37%9%6%9%49%51%
21–24 Jun 2018Ipsos [63] 35%35%12%6%12%47%53%
14–17 Jun 2018Newspoll [64] 38%38%10%6%8%48%52%
14–17 Jun 2018Essential [65] 38%35%11%7%9%48%52%
2 Jun 2018ReachTEL [66] 35%34%11%9%11%48%52%
31 May – 3 Jun 2018Essential [67] 36%37%10%8%9%46%54%
24–27 May 2018Newspoll [68] 38%38%9%8%7%48%52%
17–20 May 2018Essential [69] 40%36%10%8%7%49%51%
10–13 May 2018Essential [70] 38%36%10%7%8%48%52%
10–13 May 2018Newspoll [71] 39%38%9%6%8%49%51%
10–12 May 2018Ipsos [72] 36%37%11%5%11%46%54%
3–6 May 2018Essential [73] 38%37%10%6%9%47%53%
30 Apr 2018ReachTEL [74] 36%35%11%6%12%48%52%
19–22 Apr 2018Essential [75] 37%36%11%8%8%47%53%
19-22 Apr 2018Newspoll [76] 38%37%9%7%9%49%51%
5–8 Apr 2018Essential [77] 38%37%10%7%8%47%53%
5–8 Apr 2018Newspoll [78] 38%37%10%7%8%48%52%
3–5 Apr 2018Ipsos [79] [80] 36%34%12%8%10%48%52%
24 Mar – 1 Apr 2018Roy Morgan [81] 38.5%37.5%11%3%10%49%51%
28 Mar 2018ReachTEL [82] 34%36%10%7%13%46%54%
22–25 Mar 2018Essential [83] 38%36%9%8%9%48%52%
22–25 Mar 2018Newspoll [84] 37%39%9%7%8%47%53%
17–25 Mar 2018Roy Morgan [85] 40%35%12%3.5%9.5%49%51%
8–11 Mar 2018Essential [86] 36%38%9%8%9%46%54%
3–11 Mar 2018Roy Morgan [87] 36%36%13.5%3%11.5%46%54%
1–4 Mar 2018Newspoll [88] 37%38%9%7%9%47%53%
22–25 Feb 2018Essential [89] 35%35%10%8%12%47%53%
24 Feb 2018ReachTEL [90] 33%37%11%7%12%46%54%
15–18 Feb 2018Newspoll [91] 36%37%10%8%9%47%53%
8–11 Feb 2018Essential [92] 36%37%10%6%11%46%54%
1–3 Feb 2018Newspoll [93] 38%37%10%5%10%48%52%
26–28 Jan 2018Essential [94] 35%36%10%8%11%46%54%
25 Jan 2018ReachTEL [95] 34%36%10%8%12%48%52%
11–15 Jan 2018Essential [96] 37%38%9%6%10%47%53%
19 Dec 2017Essential [97] 37%38%9%7%9%47%53%
14–17 Dec 2017Newspoll [98] 36%37%10%7%10%47%53%
12 Dec 2017Essential [99] 35%38%10%7%9%46%54%
7–10 Dec 2017YouGov [100] 34%35%11%8%13%50%50%
5 Dec 2017Essential [101] 35%38%9%8%10%45%55%
30 Nov − 3 Dec 2017Newspoll [102] 36%37%10%8%9%47%53%
29 Nov 2017ReachTEL [103] 33%36%10%9%12%47%53%
28 Nov 2017Essential [104] 36%38%9%8%9%46%54%
23–27 Nov 2017YouGov [105] 32%32%10%11%16%47%53%
21 Nov 2017Essential [106] 35%38%9%8%10%46%54%
14 Nov 2017YouGov [107] 31%34%11%11%14%48%52%
14 Nov 2017Essential [108] 36%38%9%8%10%46%54%
13 Nov 2017Newspoll [109] 34%38%9%10%9%45%55%
30 Oct 2017Essential [110] 36%37%10%7%9%46%54%
26–29 Oct 2017Newspoll35%37%10%9%9%46%54%
24 Oct 2017Essential [111] 37%36%9%8%10%48%52%
12–15 Oct 2017Newspoll36%37%10%9%8%46%54%
4 Oct 2017Essential [112] 36%38%10%7%10%46%54%
1 Oct 2017ReachTEL [113] 36%38%9%8%9%47%53%
26 Sep 2017Essential [114] 37%37%10%7%9%47%53%
21–24 Sep 2017Newspoll [115] 36%38%9%8%9%46%54%
19 Sep 2017Essential [116] 38%36%10%8%8%48%52%
14–18 Sep 2017YouGov [117] 34%35%11%9%11%50%50%
12 Sep 2017Essential [118] 36%37%10%9%8%46%54%
6–9 Sep 2017Ipsos [119] [120] 35%34%14%1%15%47%53%
5 Sep 2017Essential [118] 36%37%10%8%9%47%53%
31 Aug – 4 Sep 2017YouGov [121] 34%32%12%9%13%50%50%
28 Aug – 2 Sep 2017Newspoll [122] 37%38%9%8%8%47%53%
29 Aug 2017Essential [123] 37%36%10%8%9%47%53%
23 Aug 2017ReachTEL [124] 34.5%36.7%10.3%10.4%8.2%48%52%
22 Aug 2017Essential [125] 37%37%9%8%9%47%53%
17–21 Aug 2017YouGov [126] 34%33%10%10%13%51%49%
17–20 Aug 2017Newspoll [127] 35%38%9%9%9%46%54%
15 Aug 2017Essential [128] 37%39%9%8%7%46%54%
8 Aug 2017Essential [129] 37%39%9%8%7%46%54%
3–6 Aug 2017Newspoll [130] 36%36%11%8%9%47%53%
1 Aug 2017Essential [131] 38%36%10%8%8%48%52%
25 Jul 2017Essential [132] 38%37%10%7%8%47%53%
20–24 Jul 2017YouGov [133] 36%33%10%8%13%50%50%
20–23 Jul 2017Newspoll [134] 36%37%9%9%9%47%53%
19 Jul 2017ReachTEL [135] 37.2%35.1%8.8%11.7%7.2%49%51%
18 Jul 2017Essential [136] 36%38%10%7%9%46%54%
6–11 Jul 2017YouGov [137] 36%33%12%7%12%52%48%
6–9 Jul 2017Newspoll [138] 35%36%10%11%8%47%53%
29 June 2017ReachTEL [139] 36.4%35.4%10.2%9.6%8.3%48%52%
22–27 Jun 2017YouGov [140] 33%34%12%7%14%49%51%
15–18 Jun 2017Newspoll [141] 36%37%9%11%7%47%53%
14 June 2017Essential [142] 38%36%10%8%8%48%52%
26–29 May 2017Newspoll [143] 36%36%10%9%9%47%53%
23 May 2017Essential [144] 37%38%10%6%9%46%54%
12–15 May 2017Newspoll [145] 36%36%10%9%9%47%53%
11 May 2017ReachTEL [146] 38%34.1%10.9%11%6%47%53%
10–11 May 2017Ipsos [147] 37%35%13%2%13%47%53%
26–30 Apr 2017Essential [148] 38%37%9%7%9%47%53%
20–23 Apr 2017Newspoll [149] 36%35%9%10%10%48%52%
13–16 Apr 2017Essential [150] 36%37%10%8%10%46%54%
6–9 Apr 2017Essential [151] 37%36%10%8%9%47%53%
1–4 Apr 2017Essential [152] 37%36%10%8%9%47%53%
30 Mar – 2 Apr 2017Newspoll [153] 36%36%10%10%8%47%53%
24–27 Mar 2017Essential [154] 35%37%10%8%11%46%54%
22–25 Mar 2017Ipsos [155] [156] 33%34%16%2%15%45%55%
17–20 Mar 2017Essential [157] 34%37%9%10%9%45%55%
16–19 Mar 2017Newspoll [158] 37%35%9%10%9%48%52%
10–13 Mar 2017Essential [159] 35%36%9%11%9%47%53%
3–6 Mar 2017Essential [160] 37%37%9%9%8%47%53%
23–26 Feb 2017Newspoll [161] 34%37%10%10%9%45%55%
16–19 Feb 2017Essential [162] 36%34%10%10%10%48%52%
9–12 Feb 2017Essential [163] 36%35%9%10%9%48%52%
2–5 Feb 2017Newspoll [164] 35%36%10%8%11%46%54%
20–23 Jan 2017Essential [165] 35%37%10%9%8%46%54%
13–16 Jan 2017Essential [166] 38%37%9%8%8%47%53%
12 Jan 2017ReachTEL [167] 37.1%35.0%9.8%10.6%7.5%46%54%
9–12 Dec 2016Essential [168] 37%37%9%7%9%47%53%
1–4 Dec 2016Newspoll [169] 39%36%10%5%10%48%52%
25–28 Nov 2016Essential [170] 39%36%9%7%9%49%51%
24–26 Nov 2016Ipsos [171] 36%30%16%7%9%49%51%
17–20 Nov 2016Newspoll [172] 38%38%10%4%10%47%53%
11–14 Nov 2016Essential [173] 37%37%11%6%9%47%53%
3–6 Nov 2016Newspoll [174] 39%38%10%13%47%53%
20–23 Oct 2016Newspoll [175] 39%37%10%5%9%48%52%
14–17 Oct 2016Essential [176] 37%37%11%5%9%47%53%
7–10 Oct 2016Essential [177] 38%36%10%6%10%48%52%
6–9 Oct 2016Newspoll [178] 39%36%10%6%9%48%52%
22–25 Sep 2016Newspoll [179] 38%37%10%15%48%52%
9–12 Sep 2016Essential [180] 38%37%10%5%11%48%52%
8–11 Sep 2016Newspoll [181] 41%36%9%14%50%50%
26–29 Aug 2016Essential [182] 40%37%10%13%49%51%
25–28 Aug 2016Newspoll [183] 41%36%9%14%50%50%
19–22 Aug 2016Essential [184] 39%36%10%15%49%51%
12–15 Aug 2016Essential [185] 39%37%10%14%48%52%
5–8 Aug 2016Essential [186] 40%37%10%13%48%52%
27 Jul – 1 Aug 2016Essential [187] 39%37%10%14%48%52%
20–24 Jul 2016Essential [188] 39%37%10%14%48%52%
13–17 Jul 2016Essential [189] 39%36%10%15%49%51%
6–10 Jul 2016Essential [190] 41%36%10%13%49%51%
30 Jun – 3 Jul 2016Essential [191] 41%37%10%12%50%50%
2 July 2016 election 42.0%34.7%10.2%1.3%11.8%50.4%49.6%
28 Jun – 1 Jul 2016Newspoll [192] 42%35%10%13%50.5%49.5%
30 Jun 2016ReachTEL [193] 42.8%34.6%10.7%12%51%49%
27–30 Jun 2016Essential [194] 42.5%34.5%11.5%12%50.5%49.5%
28–29 Jun 2016Galaxy [195] 43%36%10%11%51%49%
26–29 Jun 2016Ipsos [196] 40%33%13%14%50%50%
  1. 5% UAP, 8% Independents/Other
  2. 3% UAP, 9% Independents/Other
  3. 3% UAP, 8% Independents/Other
  4. 3.5% UAP, 8.5% Independents/Other
  5. 4% UAP, 7% Other
  6. 3.5% UAP, 9% Other
  7. 4% UAP, 8% Other
  8. 3% UAP, 7% Other
  9. 2.0% UAP, 10.5% Other
  10. 5% UAP, 7% Other
  11. 4% UAP, 9% Other
  12. 2.0% UAP, 9.5% Other
  13. 1.5% UAP, 1% CON, 0.5% KAP, 7.5%, Other
  14. 3% UAP, 2% CON, 3% Other

Preferred prime minister, and satisfaction

Graph of opinion polls conducted
Graph of opinion polls conducted
Leadership polling
DateFirmPreferred prime ministerMorrisonShorten
MorrisonShortenSatisfiedDissatisfiedSatisfiedDissatisfied
15–16 May 2019Newspoll [2] 45%38%46%45%41%49%
12–15 May 2019Ipsos [4] 47%40%48%43%43%48%
1–4 Apr 2019Ipsos [11] 46%35%47%44%40%51%
3–6 Apr 2019Ipsos [197] 46%35%48%39%36%51%
17 Feb 2019Ipsos [28] 48%38%49%40%40%52%
7–10 Feb 2019Newspoll [30] 44%35%43%45%36%51%
13–15 Dec 2018Ipsos [35] 46%37%47%39%41%50%
8–11 Nov 2018Newspoll [40] 42%36%39%47%35%50%
25–28 Oct 2018Newspoll [42] 43%35%41%44%37%50%
19–21 Oct 2018Essential [43] 42%27%43%28%33%28%
22–24 Sep 2018Essential [47] 39%27%37%31%35%31%
20–23 Sep 2018Newspoll [48] 45%32%44%39%32%54%
8–10 Sep 2018Essential [50] 39%27%37%31%35%43%
6–9 Sep 2018Newspoll [51] 42%36%41%39%37%51%
24–25 Aug 2018Newspoll [54] 33%39%
24 Aug 2018Scott Morrison replaces Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader
TurnbullShortenTurnbullShorten
9–12 Aug 2018Newspoll [56] 44%32%36%55%32%56%
26–29 Jul 2018Newspoll [58] 48%29%42%48%32%57%
18–21 Jul 2018Ipsos [198] 57%30%55%38%38%54%
16 July 2018Newspoll [199] 48%29%39%50%33%55%
10–13 May 2018Newspoll [71] 46%32%41%49%32%56%
3–6 May 2018Essential [200] 40%26%40%42%37%41%
4–6 Mar 2018Essential [148] 37%35%----
26–30 Apr 2017Essential [148] 45%31%35%47%33%47%
20–23 Apr 2017Newspoll [149] 42%33%32%57%33%53%
30 Mar – 2 April 2017Newspoll [153] 41%32%30%59%32%54%
22–25 Mar 2017Ipsos [155] 45%33%----
17–20 Mar 2017Essential [157] 43%29%----
16–19 Mar 2017Newspoll [158] 43%29%30%57%29%57%
10–13 Mar 2017Essential [159] 38%26%33%50%30%49%
23–26 Feb 2017Newspoll [201] 40%33%29%59%30%56%
2–5 Feb 2017Newspoll [164] 42%30%35%54%32%54%
1–4 Dec 2016Newspoll [169] 41%32%32%55%34%51%
24–26 Nov 2016Ipsos [171] 51%30%45%45%37%53%
17–20 Nov 2016Newspoll [172] 43%33%34%54%36%51%
3–6 Nov 2016Newspoll [174] 42%32%30%58%36%51%
20–23 Oct 2016Newspoll [175] 42%32%29%57%36%51%
6–9 Oct 2016Newspoll [178] 45%30%31%56%35%51%
9–12 Sep 2016Essential [180] 41%26%35%43%36%41%
8–11 Sep 2016Newspoll [181] 43%31%34%53%35%52%
25–28 Aug 2016Newspoll [183] 43%32%34%52%36%50%
5–8 Aug 2016Essential [186] 40%30%38%43%37%41%
6–10 Jul 2016Essential [190] 39%31%37%48%39%41%
2 July 2016 election
28 Jun – 1 July 2016Newspoll [192] 48%31%40%47%36%51%
30 June 2016ReachTEL [193] 52.9%47.1%----
26–29 Jun 2016Ipsos [196] 49%35%49%41%42%50%
23–26 Jun 2016Essential [202] 40%29%40%40%37%39%
^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.

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Several research and polling firms conducted polls during the parliamentary term and prior to the 2016 Australian federal election on 2 July in relation to voting intention for the Australian House of Representatives and leader ratings. Most firms use the flow of preferences at the previous election to determine the two-party-preferred vote; others ask respondents to nominate their second preference before applying the preference flows at the previous election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2019 Australian federal election</span> Election for the 46th Parliament of Australia

The 2019 Australian federal election was held on Saturday 18 May 2019 to elect members of the 46th Parliament of Australia. The election had been called following the dissolution of the 45th Parliament as elected at the 2016 double dissolution federal election. All 151 seats in the House of Representatives and 40 of the 76 seats in the Senate were up for election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Australian Marriage Law Postal Survey</span> National survey to gauge support for legalising same-sex marriage in Australia

The Australian Marriage Law Postal Survey was a national survey designed to gauge support for legalising same-sex marriage in Australia. The survey was held via the postal service between 12 September and 7 November 2017. Unlike voting in elections and referendums, which is compulsory in Australia, responding to the survey was voluntary.

Public opinion of same-sex marriage in Australia has shifted from 38% support in 2004 to consistent majority support of 61% in 2017.

Leadership spills of the federal parliamentary leadership of the Liberal Party of Australia were held on 21 and 24 August 2018 and were called by the incumbent leader of the party, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 Victorian state election</span> Election for the 60th Parliament of Victoria

The 2022 Victorian state election is scheduled to be held on 26 November 2022 to elect the 60th Parliament of Victoria. All 88 seats in the Legislative Assembly and all 40 seats in the Legislative Council will be up for election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2023 New South Wales state election</span>

The 2023 New South Wales state election will be held on 25 March 2023 to elect the 58th Parliament of New South Wales, including all 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly and 21 of the 42 seats in the Legislative Council. The election will be conducted by the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).

In the lead-up to the 2022 Australian federal election, a number of polling companies conducted regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collected data on parties' primary vote, and contained an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote. They also asked questions about the electorates' views on major party leaders. Key polling companies are YouGov, Essential Media Communications, Roy Morgan Research, and Resolve Strategic.

In the run-up to the next Australian federal election, it is expected a number of polling companies will conduct regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls will collect data on parties' primary vote, and likely contain an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote.

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