Post-election pendulum for the 1993 Australian federal election

Last updated

The Mackerras pendulum as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or instant-runoff voting.

The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the crossbenches according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two party preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.

Government seats (80) [1]
Marginal
Bass Tas Silvia Smith ALP0.03
Macquarie NSW Maggie Deahm ALP0.12
Page NSW Harry Woods ALP0.13
Canning WA George Gear ALP0.19
Swan WA Kim Beazley ALP0.22
Dickson Qld Michael Lavarch ALP0.26
McMillan Vic Barry Cunningham ALP0.40
Gilmore NSW Peter Knott ALP0.45
Dunkley Vic Bob Chynoweth ALP0.61
McEwen Vic Peter Cleeland ALP0.69
Macarthur NSW Chris Haviland ALP1.28
Leichhardt Qld Peter Dodd ALP1.32
Kingston SA Gordon Bilney ALP1.45
Moreton Qld Garrie Gibson ALP1.74
Richmond NSW Neville Newell ALP1.77
Petrie Qld Gary Johns ALP2.10
Herbert Qld Ted Lindsay ALP2.37
Rankin Qld David Beddall ALP2.67
Capricornia Qld Marjorie Henzell ALP2.73
Parramatta NSW Paul Elliott ALP3.24
Paterson NSW Bob Horne ALP3.30
Brand WA Wendy Fatin ALP3.70
Makin SA Peter Duncan ALP3.70
Corinella Vic Alan Griffin ALP3.74
Lyons Tas Dick Adams ALP3.78
Calare NSW David Simmons ALP4.06
Eden-Monaro NSW Jim Snow ALP4.28
Lowe NSW Mary Easson ALP5.01
Northern Territory NT Warren Snowdon ALP5.31
Jagajaga Vic Peter Staples ALP5.46
Robertson NSW Frank Walker ALP5.55
Melbourne Ports Vic Clyde Holding ALP5.85
Brisbane Qld Arch Bevis ALP5.99
Fairly safe
Perth WA Stephen Smith ALP6.15
Lilley Qld Wayne Swan ALP6.22
Hughes NSW Robert Tickner ALP6.42
Dobell NSW Michael Lee ALP6.82
Corio Vic Gavan O'Connor ALP7.19
Bowman Qld Con Sciacca ALP7.42
Franklin Tas Harry Quick ALP7.43
Fremantle WA John Dawkins ALP7.79
Griffith Qld Ben Humphreys ALP7.98
Forde Qld Mary Crawford ALP8.57
Barton NSW Gary Punch ALP9.39
Canberra ACT Ros Kelly ALP9.56
Kalgoorlie WA Graeme Campbell ALP9.94
Opposition seats (65)
Marginal
Bendigo Vic Bruce Reid LIB0.07
Hinkler Qld Paul Neville NAT0.22
Mallee Vic John Forrest NAT0.50 v LIB
Parkes NSW Michael Cobb NAT0.53
Cowan WA Richard Evans LIB0.93
Deakin Vic Ken Aldred LIB1.27
Adelaide SA Trish Worth LIB1.31
Stirling WA Eoin Cameron LIB1.47
Hindmarsh SA Chris Gallus LIB1.64
Aston Vic Peter Nugent LIB1.92
Grey SA Barry Wakelin LIB2.08
Ballarat Vic Michael Ronaldson LIB2.20
La Trobe Vic Bob Charles LIB2.36
Braddon Tas Chris Miles LIB2.85
Chisholm Vic Michael Wooldridge LIB2.88
Kennedy Qld Bob Katter NAT2.88
Isaacs Vic Rod Atkinson LIB2.98
Bennelong NSW John Howard LIB3.19
Cook NSW Don Dobie LIB3.47
Hume NSW John Sharp NAT3.70
Fadden Qld David Jull LIB3.77
Dawson Qld Ray Braithwaite NAT3.84
Cowper NSW Garry Nehl NAT4.06
Lyne NSW Mark Vaile NAT4.24
Bruce Vic Julian Beale LIB5.09
Flinders Vic Peter Reith LIB5.19
Fisher Qld Peter Slipper LIB5.36
Wentworth NSW John Hewson LIB5.46
Goldstein Vic David Kemp LIB5.54
Sturt SA Christopher Pyne LIB5.71
Casey Vic Bob Halverson LIB5.97
Fairly safe
Corangamite Vic Stewart McArthur LIB6.97
Boothby SA Steele Hall LIB7.80
Moore WA Paul Filing LIB8.73
Pearce WA Judi Moylan LIB8.76
McPherson Qld John Bradford LIB9.08
Menzies Vic Kevin Andrews LIB9.23
Wannon Vic David Hawker LIB9.27
Wide Bay Qld Warren Truss NAT9.71
Fairfax Qld Alex Somlyay LIB9.80
Safe
Higgins Vic Peter Costello LIB10.13
New England NSW Ian Sinclair NAT10.20
Warringah NSW Michael MacKellar LIB10.26
Gwydir NSW John Anderson NAT10.27
Mayo SA Alexander Downer LIB10.60

References

  1. Carr, Adam. "1993 House of Representatives Results". Psephos. Retrieved 14 June 2025.