Post-election pendulum for the 1984 Australian federal election

Last updated

The Mackerras pendulum as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or instant-runoff voting.

The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the crossbenches according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two party preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.

Government seats (82) [1]
Marginal
Chisholm Vic Helen Mayer ALP0.2
Rankin Qld David Beddall ALP0.6
Dunkley Vic Bob Chynoweth ALP1.1
Barton NSW Gary Punch ALP1.2
Ballarat Vic John Mildren ALP1.5
Eden-Monaro NSW Jim Snow ALP2.0
Bendigo Vic John Brumby ALP2.0
McEwen Vic Peter Cleeland ALP2.1
Lowe NSW Michael Maher ALP2.2
Hunter NSW Eric Fitzgibbon ALP2.4
Stirling WA Ron Edwards ALP2.5
Burke Vic Neil O'Keefe ALP2.9
Streeton Vic Tony Lamb ALP3.3
Hawker SA Ralph Jacobi ALP3.4
Herbert Qld Ted Lindsay ALP3.6
Canning WA George Gear ALP3.8
Cowan WA Carolyn Jakobsen ALP4.0
Phillip NSW Jeannette McHugh ALP4.2
Capricornia Qld Keith Wright ALP4.2
Brisbane Qld Manfred Cross ALP4.3
Isaacs Vic David Charles ALP4.4
Makin SA Peter Duncan ALP4.4
Moore WA Allen Blanchard ALP5.1
Bowman Qld Len Keogh ALP5.3
Leichhardt Qld John Gayler ALP5.5
Brand WA Wendy Fatin ALP5.5
Calare NSW David Simmons ALP5.6
Lilley Qld Elaine Darling ALP5.7
Kalgoorlie WA Graeme Campbell ALP6.0
Fairly safe
Jagajaga Vic Peter Staples ALP6.1
Perth WA Ric Charlesworth ALP6.3
Hindmarsh SA John Scott ALP6.4
Hughes NSW Robert Tickner ALP6.5
St George NSW Stephen Dubois ALP6.5
Aston Vic John Saunderson ALP6.5
Henty Vic Joan Child ALP6.7
Swan WA Kim Beazley ALP7.0
Grey SA Lloyd O'Neil ALP7.1
Kingston SA Gordon Bilney ALP7.4
McMillan Vic Barry Cunningham ALP8.0
Hotham Vic Lewis Kent ALP8.2
Robertson NSW Barry Cohen ALP8.6
La Trobe Vic Peter Milton ALP8.7
Dobell NSW Michael Lee ALP9.9
Adelaide SA Chris Hurford ALP10.0
Safe
Griffith Qld Ben Humphreys ALP10.3
Maribyrnong Vic Alan Griffiths ALP10.4
Banks NSW John Mountford ALP11.4
Lindsay NSW Ross Free ALP11.6
Canberra ACT Ros Kelly ALP11.6
Parramatta NSW John Brown ALP11.7
Throsby NSW Colin Hollis ALP11.7
Holt Vic Michael Duffy ALP12.2
Macarthur NSW Stephen Martin ALP12.3
Fraser ACT John Langmore ALP12.3
Corio Vic Gordon Scholes ALP12.4
Oxley Qld Bill Hayden ALP13.0
Fremantle WA John Dawkins ALP13.0
Shortland NSW Peter Morris ALP13.1
Greenway NSW Russ Gorman ALP13.8
Melbourne Ports Vic Clyde Holding ALP14.2
Newcastle NSW Allan Morris ALP14.5
Grayndler NSW Leo McLeay ALP14.9
Blaxland NSW Paul Keating ALP16.2
Werriwa NSW John Kerin ALP16.9
Charlton NSW Bob Brown ALP17.3
Reid NSW Tom Uren ALP17.3
Port Adelaide SA Mick Young ALP17.8
Bonython SA Neal Blewitt ALP18.9
Cunningham NSW Stewart West ALP19.1
Prospect NSW Dick Klugman ALP19.4
Chifley NSW Roger Price ALP19.5
Lalor Vic Barry Jones ALP20.0
Melbourne Vic Gerry Hand ALP20.0
Very safe
Fowler NSW Ted Grace ALP20.3
Wills Vic Bob Hawke ALP20.3
Kingsford Smith NSW Lionel Bowen ALP20.9
Calwell Vic Andrew Theophanous ALP22.2
Gellibrand Vic Ralph Willis ALP23.3
Sydney NSW Peter Baldwin ALP23.4
Batman Vic Brian Howe ALP24.7
Scullin Vic Harry Jenkins Sr. ALP27.6
Opposition seats (66)
Marginal
Forde Qld David Watson LIB0.02
Hinkler Qld Bryan Conquest NAT0.2
Casey Vic Bob Halverson LIB0.6
Petrie Qld John Hodges LIB0.6
Deakin Vic Julian Beale LIB0.7
Denison Tas Michael Hodgman LIB1.0
Gilmore NSW John Sharp NAT1.2
Flinders Vic Peter Reith LIB1.2
Lyons Tas Max Burr LIB1.3
Macquarie NSW Alasdair Webster LIB1.4
Northern Territory NT Paul Everingham CLP1.4
Bruce Vic Ken Aldred LIB2.1
Fisher Qld Peter Slipper NAT2.3
Forrest WA Peter Drummond LIB2.4
Moreton Qld Don Cameron LIB3.3
Corangamite Vic Stewart McArthur LIB3.4
Dawson Qld Ray Braithwaite NAT3.8
Cowper NSW Garry Nehl NAT4.1
Bass Tas Warwick Smith LIB4.4
New England NSW Ian Sinclair NAT4.6
Riverina-Darling NSW Noel Hicks NAT4.6
Braddon Tas Chris Miles LIB4.6
Fadden Qld David Jull LIB4.7
Page NSW Ian Robinson NAT5.1
Kennedy Qld Bob Katter Sr. NAT5.2
Cook NSW Don Dobie LIB5.4
Franklin Tas Bruce Goodluck LIB5.6
Menzies Vic Neil Brown LIB5.7
Sturt SA Ian Wilson LIB6.0
Fairly safe
Parkes NSW Michael Cobb NAT6.1
Goldstein Vic Ian Macphee LIB6.2
Wentworth NSW Peter Coleman LIB6.3
Lyne NSW Bruce Cowan NAT6.8
Richmond NSW Charles Blunt NAT7.2
Gwydir NSW Ralph Hunt NAT7.3
Hume NSW Wal Fife LIB7.7
Tangney WA Peter Shack LIB7.8
Bennelong NSW John Howard LIB8.5
Dundas NSW Philip Ruddock LIB8.9
Boothby SA Steele Hall LIB9.2
Curtin WA Allan Rocher LIB9.4
Moncrieff Qld Kathy Martin LIB9.9
Safe
Mackellar NSW Jim Carlton LIB10.1
Ryan Qld John Moore LIB10.4
Mayo SA Alexander Downer LIB10.5
Fairfax Qld Evan Adermann NAT10.6
Warringah NSW Michael MacKellar LIB10.7
North Sydney NSW John Spender LIB11.0
Wide Bay Qld Clarrie Millar NAT11.8
Higgins Vic Roger Shipton LIB12.1
Indi Vic Ewen Cameron LIB12.3
Barker SA James Porter LIB12.6
Wakefield SA Neil Andrew LIB12.9
Farrer NSW Tim Fischer NAT13.0
Kooyong Vic Andrew Peacock LIB13.0
McPherson Qld Peter White LIB13.5
Gippsland Vic Peter McGauran NAT14.3
Berowra NSW Harry Edwards LIB14.8
Wannon Vic David Hawker LIB15.4
Maranoa Qld Ian Cameron NAT15.5
Groom Qld Tom McVeigh NAT15.9
O'Connor WA Wilson Tuckey LIB19.2
Very safe
Mitchell NSW Alan Cadman LIB20.8
Mallee Vic Peter Fisher NAT21.4
Murray Vic Bruce Lloyd NAT23.1
Bradfield NSW David Connolly LIB25.5

References

  1. Carr, Adam. "1984 House of Representatives Results". Psephos. Retrieved 25 June 2025.