Post-election pendulum for the 2004 Australian federal election

Last updated

The Mackerras pendulum as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or instant-runoff voting.

The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the crossbenches according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two party preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.

Government seats (87) [1]
Marginal
Kingston SA Kym Richardson LIB0.07
Bonner Qld Ross Vasta LIB0.51
Greenway NSW Louise Markus LIB0.58
Wakefield SA David Fawcett LIB0.67
Makin SA Trish Draper LIB0.93
Braddon Tas Mark Baker LIB1.13
Hasluck WA Stuart Henry LIB1.82
Stirling WA Michael Keenan LIB2.04
Eden-Monaro NSW Gary Nairn LIB2.14
Bass Tas Michael Ferguson LIB2.63
Solomon NT Dave Tollner CLP2.81
Moreton Qld Gary Hardgrave LIB4.17
Page NSW Ian Causley NAT4.23
Bennelong NSW John Howard LIB4.33
Hinkler Qld Paul Neville NAT4.81
Deakin Vic Phil Barresi LIB4.97
McMillan Vic Russell Broadbent LIB4.99
Lindsay NSW Jackie Kelly LIB5.26
Corangamite Vic Stewart McArthur LIB5.32
Boothby SA Andrew Southcott LIB5.37
Wentworth NSW Malcolm Turnbull LIB5.48
La Trobe Vic Jason Wood LIB5.83
Dobell NSW Ken Ticehurst LIB5.90
Fairly safe
Herbert Qld Peter Lindsay LIB6.20
Kalgoorlie WA Barry Haase LIB6.30
McEwen Vic Fran Bailey LIB6.42
Cowper NSW Luke Hartsuyker NAT6.45
Sturt SA Christopher Pyne LIB6.80
Robertson NSW Jim Lloyd LIB6.81
Paterson NSW Bob Baldwin LIB6.97
Longman Qld Mal Brough LIB7.66
Gippsland Vic Peter McGauran NAT7.70
Dickson Qld Peter Dutton LIB7.83
Petrie Qld Teresa Gambaro LIB7.92
Higgins Vic Peter Costello LIB8.76
Macquarie NSW Kerry Bartlett LIB8.92
Bowman Qld Andrew Laming LIB9.12
Dunkley Vic Bruce Billson LIB9.38
Macarthur NSW Pat Farmer LIB9.51
Canning WA Don Randall LIB9.54
Kooyong Vic Petro Georgiou LIB9.58
Leichhardt Qld Warren Entsch LIB10.00
Safe
North Sydney NSW Joe Hockey LIB10.03
Goldstein Vic Andrew Robb LIB10.03
Gilmore NSW Joanna Gash LIB10.08
Dawson Qld De-Anne Kelly NAT10.38
Ryan Qld Michael Johnson LIB10.42
Forrest WA Geoff Prosser LIB10.45
Warringah NSW Tony Abbott LIB10.48
Menzies Vic Kevin Andrews LIB10.67
Fairfax Qld Alex Somlyay LIB10.83
Moore WA Mal Washer LIB10.83
Hughes NSW Danna Vale LIB11.04
Flinders Vic Greg Hunt LIB11.11
Blair Qld Cameron Thompson LIB11.21
Casey Vic Tony Smith LIB11.35
Tangney WA Dennis Jensen LIB11.75
Mayo SA Alexander Downer LIB11.81 v IND
Berowra NSW Philip Ruddock LIB12.16
Wannon Vic David Hawker LIB12.37
Wide Bay Qld Warren Truss NAT12.89
Pearce WA Judi Moylan LIB12.94
Fisher Qld Peter Slipper LIB12.98
Forde Qld Kay Elson LIB12.98
Lyne NSW Mark Vaile NAT13.03
Aston Vic Chris Pearce LIB13.15
Cook NSW Bruce Baird LIB13.82
Grey SA Barry Wakelin LIB13.82
McPherson Qld Margaret May LIB13.89
Hume NSW Alby Schultz LIB14.13
Parkes NSW John Cobb NAT14.40
Curtin WA Julie Bishop LIB14.62
Fadden Qld David Jull LIB15.28
Mackellar NSW Bronwyn Bishop LIB15.75
Indi Vic Sophie Panopoulos LIB16.29
Gwydir NSW John Anderson NAT18.39
Bradfield NSW Brendan Nelson LIB18.51
Groom Qld Ian Macfarlane LIB18.95
Farrer NSW Sussan Ley LIB19.82
Barker SA Patrick Secker LIB19.88
Very safe
Moncrieff Qld Steven Ciobo LIB20.14
O'Connor WA Wilson Tuckey LIB20.39
Riverina NSW Kay Hull NAT20.66
Mitchell NSW Alan Cadman LIB20.68
Maranoa Qld Bruce Scott NAT20.93
Murray Vic Sharman Stone LIB24.08
Mallee Vic John Forrest NAT24.75
Opposition seats (60)
Marginal
Hindmarsh SA Steve Georganas ALP0.06
Swan WA Kim Wilkie ALP0.08
Richmond NSW Justine Elliot ALP0.19
Parramatta NSW Julie Owens ALP0.77
Cowan WA Graham Edwards ALP0.78
Bendigo Vic Steve Gibbons ALP0.96
Banks NSW Daryl Melham ALP1.06
Adelaide SA Kate Ellis ALP1.33
Isaacs Vic Ann Corcoran ALP1.48
Holt Vic Anthony Byrne ALP1.51
Ballarat Vic Catherine King ALP2.23
Chisholm Vic Anna Burke ALP2.65
Rankin Qld Craig Emerson ALP3.23
Lowe NSW John Murphy ALP3.30
Bruce Vic Alan Griffin ALP3.48
Lyons Tas Dick Adams ALP3.68
Melbourne Ports Vic Michael Danby ALP3.74
Brisbane Qld Arch Bevis ALP3.90
Jagajaga Vic Jenny Macklin ALP4.40
Brand WA Kim Beazley ALP4.65
Capricornia Qld Kirsten Livermore ALP5.14
Lilley Qld Wayne Swan ALP5.27
Corio Vic Gavan O'Connor ALP5.64
Fairly safe
Perth WA Stephen Smith ALP6.73
Prospect NSW Chris Bowen ALP7.12
Hotham Vic Simon Crean ALP7.40
Barton NSW Robert McClelland ALP7.54
Franklin Tas Harry Quick ALP7.59
Lingiari NT Warren Snowdon ALP7.66
Fremantle WA Carmen Lawrence ALP7.76
Charlton NSW Kelly Hoare ALP7.92
Calwell Vic Maria Vamvakinou ALP8.19
Griffith Qld Kevin Rudd ALP8.63
Lalor Vic Julia Gillard ALP8.79
Kingsford Smith NSW Peter Garrett ALP9.01
Werriwa NSW Mark Latham ALP9.31
Maribyrnong Vic Bob Sercombe ALP9.47
Shortland NSW Jill Hall ALP9.49
Canberra ACT Annette Ellis ALP9.62
Oxley Qld Bernie Ripoll ALP9.72
Newcastle NSW Sharon Grierson ALP9.98
Safe
Cunningham NSW Sharon Bird ALP11.46
Reid NSW Laurie Ferguson ALP12.77
Blaxland NSW Michael Hatton ALP12.87
Port Adelaide SA Rod Sawford ALP12.91
Chifley NSW Roger Price ALP12.98
Denison Tas Duncan Kerr ALP13.29
Fraser ACT Bob McMullan ALP13.33
Hunter NSW Joel Fitzgibbon ALP13.75
Scullin Vic Harry Jenkins ALP14.79
Gorton Vic Brendan O'Connor ALP14.90
Gellibrand Vic Nicola Roxon ALP14.95
Throsby NSW Jennie George ALP15.00
Watson NSW Tony Burke ALP15.14
Sydney NSW Tanya Plibersek ALP16.42
Wills Vic Kelvin Thomson ALP16.90
Very safe
Melbourne Vic Lindsay Tanner ALP21.14
Batman Vic Martin Ferguson ALP21.32
Fowler NSW Julia Irwin ALP21.36
Grayndler NSW Anthony Albanese ALP22.60
Crossbench seats (3)
Kennedy Qld Bob Katter IND18.88 v ALP
New England NSW Tony Windsor IND21.00 v NAT
Calare NSW Peter Andren IND21.24 v LIB

References

  1. Carr, Adam. "2004 House of Representatives Results". Psephos. Retrieved 3 July 2025.