Opinion polling for the 2015 Polish parliamentary election

Last updated

In the run up to the 2015 Polish parliamentary election , various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Poland. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

Contents

The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous parliamentary election, held on 9 October 2011, to 23 October 2015.

Opinion polls

Graphical summary

Election polls based on a special model not including parties without past data (Kukiz and Razem) Model sondazy.png
Election polls based on a special model not including parties without past data (Kukiz and Razem)

Poll results

2015

Dates of PollingPolling Firm/Link PO PiS PSL SLD TR Kukiz'15 .Nowoczesna KORWiN Razem Others/UndecidedLead
25 October 2015 Election results 24.137.65.17.68.87.64.83.60.813.5
25 OctoberLate polls
Ipsos 		23.637.75.27.58.77.74.93.90.814.1
25 OctoberExit polls
Ipsos 		23.439.15.26.69.07.14.93.90.815.7
22–23 October IBRiS 22.437.45.58.910.27.83.73.40.715.0
22 October IBRiS 24.435.34.78.16.76.24.42.57.710.9
21–22 October Estymator 2337688665114
20–22 October Millward Brown 20325968611312
17–22 October Ipsos 22.138.36.58.112.56.63.51.70.716.2
21 October IBRiS 23.037.05.18.95.96.44.13.95.714.0
21 October TNS Poland 24.137.84.88.69.16.64.93.50.613.7
15–21 October CBOS 25365665411111
19–20 October TNS Poland 26.332.54.87.510.46.15.30.37.16.2
19 October IBRiS 22366116641914
16–19 October Dobra Opinia 24.539.56.097.56.04.52.01.015.0
16 October IBRiS 22.935.35.510.75.37.13.80.98.512.4
14–15 October IPSOS 22365884511114
13–15 October Millward Brown 223251057511310
7–15 October CBOS 2734368731117
14 October TNS Poland 30.138.95.57.95.56.74.70.00.78.8
13–14 October Estymator 2440696471316
13 October IBRiS 20.336.26.411.15.98.43.10.57.915.9
8 October IBRiS 22.235.86.79.36.28.62.30.28.113.6
7–8 October Ipsos 25366875301011
7–8 October Millward Brown 193551158511216
7 October TNS Poland 27.7423.78.8683.10.00.714.3
2–7 October TNS Poland 24364464301912
6 October IBRiS 23.833.46.69.55.89.33.20.08.59.4
30 Sep – 5 Oct Dobra Opinia 25.838.25.38.69.26.64.71.312.4
2–3 October IBRiS 24346108931510
1 October IBRiS 23.235.66.29.378.12.50.57.612.4
30 Sept. – 1 Oct Millward Brown 22324127653910
29 September IBRiS 24.3366.67.36.98.130.77.111.7
28–29 September Estymator 2642675551316
24–25 September PressMix 21446645221023
24 September IBRiS 27.337.657.8563.60.6710.3
23–24 September IPSOS 2638657631812
17–23 September CBOS 303455764184
22 September IBRiS 25.536.95.88.34.77.33.60.9711.4
17–21 September Dobra Opinia 25.739.25.88.19.85.54.71.2013.5
19–20 September Millward Brown 22336856721111
16–20 September ewybory.eu 2538.4512.86.74.54.20.92.513.4
18–19 September IBRiS 22395846––1617
13 September IBRiS 21.836.45.28.86.15.73.01.313.114.6
9–13 September ewybory.eu 24.237.15.515.35.546.30.12.112.9
10–11 September IPSOS 243556944–1311
4–9 September TNS Poland 233823722–2315
7 September Millward Brown 253859675– ?13
3–7 September GfK Polonia 31.143.33.95.56.82.73.20.13.412.2
4–6 September Millward Brown 253641067311011
4–5 September IBRiS 233858653–1215
28 August IBRiS 1939.15.28.375.62.50.43.720.1
26–27 August Estymator 264378442–617
17–24 August CBOS 2736441241–119
24 August Millward Brown 2737411654–510
17–23 August ewybory.eu 21.246.95124.52.92.80.14.625.7
20 August IBRIS 1940.45.49.54.76.52.2–12.321.4
15 August IBRIS 2436686601.11414
14 August Estymator 284166642–713
14 August Arianda 25.436.13.93.8013.54.12.9–10.110.7
7–12 August TNS Poland 2241441112–1419
10 August Millward Brown 2635381253–99
6–10 August GfK Polonia 29.942.34.14.29.82.33.8–3.612.4
8 August TNS Poland 21.934.4–7.410.15.20– ?12.5
3–8 August ewybory.eu 24.545.14.410.55.51.83.2–3.720.6
3 August IBRiS 233567750–1712
24–31 July ewybory.eu 26.740.349.28.51.84.3–4.113.6
30 July Estymator 294354942–314
29 July GfK Polonia 30473.71.110.512.2–4.517
25 July Arianda 23374601645–514
18 July IBRiS 24354311361–111
17 July TNS Poland 233733014111214
16 July Millward Brown 23335718541510
16 July Estymator 28435501042– ?15
8 July CBOS 293633111431107
7 July IBRiS 26334201463–27
5 July Millward Brown 2534561664–19
2 July TNS Poland 2738231303–111
29 June GfK Polonia 28.843.13.22.60.315.12.12–0.514.3
27 June Estymator 253664120–2– ?11
23 June Dobra Opinia 25.837.243.50.919.34.63.8–0.911.4
24 June IBRiS 2435.54.22.90.718.35.21.6– ?11.5
23 June Millward Brown 23335411983–310
21 June IBRiS 26285402152– ?2
17 June TNS Poland 20343411712–114
17 June CBOS 25314411942–86
11 June Estymator 19334422932– ?4
11 June Millward Brown 19303532474–16
9 June TNS Poland 24323202032–18
8 June IBRiS 212433–24.283– ?0.2
4 June ewybory.eu 19.335.12.14.62.2282.54.1–0.87.1
3 June CBOS 31331411432–02
1 June Millward Brown 172534220104–145
27–28 May Estymator 20364512541–111
May 24, 2015 Presidential elections - II Round 48.4551.55--------3.1
22–23 May IBRiS 292943–10–4–1Tie
21 May IBRiS 22.429.73.24.0–21.35.7–– ?4.3
14–20 May CBOS 34355424–5–11
14 May Millward Brown 25254312053– ?Tie
9–14 May TNS Poland 2835482––4–167
14 May Millward Brown 343335–––4–15+51
May 10, 2015 Presidential elections - I Round 33.834.81.62.41.420.8-3.3-1.91.0
8–9 May IBRiS 3735551--3-142
28–29 April TNS Poland 3427462--5-227
28 April Millward Brown 3531362--7-164
24–25 April IBRiS 373254–--5-175
16–22 April CBOS 3630672--61136
14–16 April Estymator 4034872--4-56
11–16 April TNS Poland 3530661--4-185
9–13 April GfK Polonia 44.736.34.45.61.0--2.5–5.58.4
13 April Millward Brown 3531573--8–114
April IBRiS 3631683--4–125
7–8 April TNS Poland 3830561--4-168
7 April IBRiS 38.233.25.26.31.7--4.8-5.85
30 March Millward Brown 3535563--5–11Tie
27–28 March IBRiS 36.330.27.06.81.8--5.4–12.56.1
16–18 March Estymator 3834893--5-34
13–18 March TNS Poland 3032582--2-212
11–18 March CBOS 4229571--3-1313
16 March Millward Brown 32344114--4-112
12–16 March GfK Polonia 46.134.66.74.60.4--1.9-5.711.5
13–14 March IBRiS 34.531.37.68.30.8--2.4-15.13.2
10–11 March TNS Poland 3634651--3-152
5–11 March CBOS 4627561--4-1119
27 February IBRiS 37.032.87.37.41.5--3.3-10.74.2
13–18 February Millward Brown 3435581--6-111
13–18 February TNS Poland 3327891----216
15–17 February Estymator 393211102--4-27
16 February Millward Brown 31306104--5-141
12–16 February GfK Polonia 38.938.08.96.51.3--1.7-4.70.9
5–11 February CBOS 38281183-–––1210
4–5 February TNS Poland 3432972--1-152
30–31 January IBRiS 34.232.97.68.41.6--3.5-11.81.3
16–21 January TNS Poland 31278112----214
15–18 January GfK Polonia 38.537.76.38.31.5----7.70.8
16–17 January IBRiS 35.634.77.810.21----11.70.9
8–14 January CBOS 4029760----1811
12–13 January TNS Poland 3333681----19Tie
12 January Millward Brown 3434990----14Tie
2–3 January IBRiS 33.932.06.85.91.9----19.51.9

2014

Dates of PollingPolling Firm/Link PO PiS SLD PSL KNP TR SP PRZP Others/UndecidedLead
18–19 December IBRiS 32.829.85.97.76.11.2(PiS)(PiS)16.53
10–11 December TNS Poland 31345853(PiS)(PiS)143
4–11 December CBOS 43287941(PiS)(PiS)815
5–10 December TNS Poland 34299932(PiS)(PiS)145
4–7 December GfK Polonia 38.24077.711.51.72.91.8
5–6 December IBRiS 3330885–(PiS)(PiS)163
20–23 November GfK Polonia 38.235.96.68.13.92.31.63.42.3
21–22 November IBRiS 36.334.17.17.65.61.0(PiS)(PiS)8.32.2
18–21 November Millward Brown 333010932(PiS)(PiS)133
16 November Local election results 26.326.98.823.93.91 [lower-alpha 1] (PiS)(PiS)9.20.6
6–16 November CBOS 38279841(PiS)(PiS)1311
12–13 November TNS Poland 32287552(PiS)(PiS)214
7–13 November TNS Poland 262911932(PiS)(PiS)203
10–12 November Estymator 38358871(PiS)(PiS)33
7–8 November IBRiS 333011841(PiS)(PiS)133
5 November TNS Poland 32279551(PiS)(PiS)215
17–18 October IBRiS 33339541(PiS)(PiS)15Tie
16–19 October Millward Brown 343011642(PiS)(PiS)134
9–15 October CBOS 34349672(PiS)(PiS)8Tie
3–8 October TNS Poland 282714932(PiS)(PiS)171
2–6 October GfK Polonia 37.637.88.4731.11.53.60.2
3–4 October IBRiS 343210641(PiS)(PiS)132
2 October TNS Poland 34288652(PiS)(PiS)176
19–20 September IBRiS 333311651119Tie
11–17 September CBOS 38336762(PiS)(PiS)85
5–9 September TNS Poland 273110754(PiS)(PiS)164
5–8 September GfK Polonia 37.841.57.44.73.91.30.82.63.7
4–5 September TNS Poland 34289552(PiS)(PiS)176
2 September Millward Brown 31329574(PiS)(PiS)121
19–25 August CBOS 26329674(PiS)(PiS)166
22–23 August IBRiS 25331257321128
8–14 August TNS Poland 263112732(PiS)(PiS)195
8–9 August IBRiS 24331166213149
25–26 July IBRiS 25369462131411
25 July GfK Polonia 27.742.49.65.95.42.21.31.14.414.7
18 July TNS Poland 23358452221912
10–13 July Millward Brown 26338410212147
11–12 July IBRiS 25311158332126
10 July CBOS 2924866212225
27–28 June IBRiS 243210511232118
23 June TNS Poland 24318510422137
17 June Millward Brown 25321048401167
13–14 June IBRiS 2832975232124
6–11 June TNS Poland 28361054221128
5–11 June CBOS 3224565311238
30–31 May IBRiS 26301156232154
27 May IBRiS 28301177223102
25 May European Parliament election 32.131.89.56.87.13.643.21.90.3
24–25 May IBRiS 25301355332145
9–14 May TNS Poland 2532963512177
7–14 May CBOS 2723945312264
13 May IBRiS 28301157422112
8–10 May IBRiS 2929125633211Tie
29 April IBRiS 26281265423142
24–25 April IBRiS 25301355332142
14 April IBRiS 26281254523152
8 April Millward Brown 31298767––122
4–9 April TNS Poland 29321052222163
3–9 April CBOS 2821755113297
2–3 April TNS Poland 3130126663331
1 April IBRiS 28311152421163
20–21 March Estymator 3633125242513
18 March IBRiS 27291152421195
6–12 March CBOS 2624743322292
7–8 March IBRiS 25301155321185
6–7 March TNS Poland 2631853523175
4 March IBRiS 25311262622146
18 February IBRiS 23301243532187
6–12 February CBOS 2526844322261
6–7 February TNS Poland 26291034833143
4 February IBRiS 24321252414168
24–26 January Millward Brown 24321074712138
21 January IBRiS 23291362523176
15–16 January Estymator 33.531.613.98.21.93.31.75.40.51.9
9–15 January CBOS 2425853323271
10–11 January IBRiS 2729145–203202
6 January IBRiS 2429126–31–255

2013

Dates of PollingPolling Firm/Link PO PiS SLD PSL KNP RP SP PRJG Others/UndecidedLead
17 December IBRiS 2330156–32–217
16 December IBRiS 23.831.114.55–4.634147.3
13–16 December TNS Poland 26291043545143
5–12 December CBOS 2323106232–31Tie
6–11 December TNS Poland 232894363–245
9–10 December Estymator 28.231.513.47.33.95.436.60.73.3
9 December Millward Brown 2531105–6–6176
5–8 December GfK Polonia 33.839.59.85.82.33.22.4–3.25.7
3 December IBRiS 1932156–53–2013
22–25 November TNS Poland 282877–8––22Tie
22–23 November IBRiS 1929156453–1910
20–21 November TNS Poland 3436124452–32
8–15 November TNS Poland 2231125253–209
7–14 November CBOS 2425107131–291
8–9 November IBRiS 2031154463–1711
25–26 October Millward Brown 27359–57––178
22–24 October TNS Poland 4132113352–39
22 October IBRiS 2230137–43–218
18–19 October IBRiS 2231146–5––229
3–9 October CBOS 222886442–266
8 October IBRiS 2430146–42–206
20–21 September IBRiS 2430135–5––236
17 September IBRiS 2232135–64–1810
13–15 September Millward Brown 2733104362–156
5–12 September CBOS 2523106250–292
10 September Millward Brown 2530107482–145
10 September IBRiS 20311553234 [lower-alpha 2] 1711
7–10 September TNS Poland 282675253–242
23–24 August IBRiS 2233155–33–1911
13 August TNS Poland 3243125231–211
1–12 August CBOS 252495222–311
9 August IBRiS 25.633.814.16.2362.2–9.18.2
2–8 August TNS Poland 2529105354–194
6 August IBRiS 2435155–33–1511
23 July IBRiS 2632155–34–156
19 July IBRiS 24.730.414.35.10.74.93.3–16.65.7
12–15 July TNS Poland 3440132162–26
4–11 July CBOS 242675231–322
5–10 July TNS Poland 263094252–224
9 July IBRiS 2533175–33–148
3 July Millward Brown 2635105–6––189
26 June IBRiS 2732167–35–105
21 June IBRiS 2631156–6––165
12–13 June TNS Poland 3239143352–77
6–12 June CBOS 232796232–234
11 June IBRiS 2632154–45–146
4–11 June CBOS 242675232–312
28–29 May Millward Brown 2630165510––84
28 May IBRiS 2730144–63–163
24 May IBRiS 2732146263–105
11–16 May TNS Poland 2528124383–173
9–15 May CBOS 232696242–283
10 May IBRiS 26281373533 [lower-alpha 2] 122
7 May IBRiS 3130135–63–121
26 April IBRiS 3031136–34–131
23 April IBRiS 2829126–65–141
12 April IBRiS 2929136343–13Tie
4–10 April CBOS 252386223–312
9 April IBRiS 3130136–44–121
18 March IBRiS 3231155–53–91
18 March Millward Brown 28281164101–12Tie
7–13 March CBOS 2522106461–263
8 March IBRiS 3228147–44–114
5 March Millward Brown 323196–71–141
5 March IBRiS 3230145–64–92
22–26 February TNS Poland 2926125152–203
18 February IBRiS 3329144–35–124
13–14 February TNS Poland 3534153363–11
8–11 February TNS Poland 332966262–165
8–9 February IBRiS 3027135–45–165
31 Jan – 6 Feb CBOS 252478253–261
4 February IBRiS 3028135–76–112
30 January IBRiS 2930137372–91
26–27 January Millward Brown 3025136–112–135
22 January IBRiS 3129118–42–152
11–14 January TNS Poland 2923106–74–216
3–9 January CBOS 312286243–249
8 January IBRiS 2931137–42–142

2012

Dates of PollingPolling Firm/Link PO PiS SLD PSL KNP RP SP Others/UndecidedLead
14–19 December TNS Poland 322296–6–2510
18 December IBRiS 3329136–62114
8–9 December Millward Brown 332886–8–175
6–9 December TNS Poland 342677162178
5–6 December TNS Poland 3631146–8235
30 Nov – 6 Dec CBOS 3220882532212
4 December IBRiS 2928137–43161
29 November TNS Poland 282877–8–22Tie
20 November IBRiS 362794–43179
19 November Millward Brown 3726116–9–1111
8–17 November CBOS 3418972432316
13 November IBRiS 29.430.313.55–6.1–15.70.9
7–8 November TNS Poland 4230104181412
6 November IBRiS 3130116–75101
31 October Millward Brown 3329104264124
23 October IBRiS 3331125–6582
16 October TNS Poland 342385163203
5–12 October TNS Poland 2728105–7–231
11 October Millward Brown 2730125–65153
4–10 October CBOS 282485–43284
2 October IBRiS 2828146–5514Tie
18 September IBRiS 3229125–65113
5–16 September CBOS 312385143258
7–10 September TNS Poland 282675253242
4 September IBRiS 3127135–75124
14–22 August CBOS 3622862521914
21 August IBRiS 3029135–64131
2–5 August TNS Poland 292474273245
31 July IBRiS 3226126–64246
17 July IBRiS 3425136–64129
5–12 July CBOS 322594–53227
3 July IBRiS 3325146–55128
14–20 June CBOS 3220961332612
19 June IBRiS 3323147–841110
14–17 June TNS Poland 302386191227
5 June IBRiS 2928116–75141
10–16 May CBOS 2721127273216
10–13 May TNS Poland 2825731102243
9–10 May TNS Poland 3434125–933Tie
8 May IBRiS 3125124–97126
13–18 April TNS Poland 302573294205
12–18 April CBOS 292295364227
17 April IBRiS 3027125–105113
3 April IBRiS 2725135–12622
20 March IBRiS 3126119–10495
16 March Millward Brown 29261143141123
8–14 March CBOS 292388283196
6 March IBRiS 3226118–11576
1–4 March TNS Poland 2922951122207
8–9 February Millward Brown 27221062175115
3–9 February CBOS 3319872931914
7 February IBRiS 3521128–1131014
2–6 February TNS Poland 2826951102192
27 January Millward Brown 332289–1321311
24 January IBRiS 3422137–134712
19–23 January TNS Poland 3722641812115
5–11 January CBOS 4018472821922
10 January IBRiS 3623117294813

2011

Dates of PollingPolling Firm/Link PO PiS SLD PSL KNP RP SP Others/UndecidedLead
20 December TNS Poland 3823107–111115
8–11 December TNS Poland 382767–821211
1–8 December CBOS 4321571621522
1–6 December IBRiS 3723127–10–1114
1–4 December TNS Poland 36196611022017
30 Nov – 1 Dec TNS Poland 432395–1021020
30 November Millward Brown 372587–931112
22 November IBRiS 422487–11–818
17–20 November TNS Poland 3424951831610
4–13 November CBOS 42217719–1321
4–8 November TNS Poland 422275–7–1720
5–7 November IBRiS 392677–11–1013
4–5 November Millward Brown 372156–109 [lower-alpha 3] 1216
2–3 November TNS Poland 442687–10–518
25 October IBRiS 382987–13–59
23 October Millward Brown 392778212–512
13–16 October TNS Poland 452586112–320
14 October IBRiS 38.028.64.55.62.412.5–8.49.4
October 9, 2011 Election results 39.229.98.28.41.110.0-3.29.3

Notes

  1. ↑ Your Movement did not present lists in all regions in the local elections.
  2. 1 2 In this poll, the people surveyed were asked how they would vote in the hypothetical event of Jarosław Gowin launching his own party.
  3. ↑ In this poll, the people surveyed were asked how they would vote in the hypothetical event of Zbigniew Ziobro launching his own party.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Opinion polling for the 2015 United Kingdom general election</span>

In the run up to the general election on 7 May 2015, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

This page lists the public opinion polls that were conducted in relation to the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, that was held on 18 September 2014. Overall, polls showed that support for a "No" vote was dominant until the end of August 2014, when support for a "Yes" vote gained momentum and the gap closed significantly, with at least one poll placing the "Yes" vote ahead. In the final week of the campaign, polls showed the "No" vote to be consistently but somewhat narrowly ahead. There were no exit polls although a YouGov post-election poll was published shortly after the polls closed. For the history of the campaign itself see 2014 Scottish independence referendum, Yes Scotland, and Better Together (campaign).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2015 United Kingdom general election</span>

The 2015 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday 7 May 2015 to elect 650 Members of Parliament to the House of Commons. It was the only general election held under the rules of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 and was the last general election to be held before the United Kingdom would vote to end its membership of the European Union (EU). Local elections took place in most areas of England on the same day.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">People's Front (Ukraine)</span> Political party in Ukraine

People's Front is a nationalist and conservative political party in Ukraine founded by Arseniy Yatsenyuk and Oleksandr Turchynov in 2014.

In the run-up to the general election on 8 June 2017, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Opinion polling for the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum</span>

The referendum on EU membership took place on 23 June 2016. Opinion polling for the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum was ongoing in the months between the announcement of a referendum and the referendum polling day. Polls on the general principle of the UK's membership of the European Union were carried out for a number of years prior to the referendum. Opinion polls of voters in general tended to show roughly equal proportions in favour of remaining and leaving. Polls of business leaders, scientists, and lawyers showed majorities in favour of remaining. Among non-British citizens in other EU member states, polling suggested that a majority were in favour of the UK remaining in the EU in principle, but that a similarly sized majority believed that if the UK were only able to remain in the EU on renegotiated terms then it should leave.

Opinion polling on Scottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations. This article concerns well over 240 polls carried out since the 2014 Scottish independence referendum. Polling conducted before the referendum can be found here. Polls listed here, except as noted, are by members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Movement of New Forces</span> Political party in Ukraine

Movement of New Forces is a Ukrainian political party that was founded as the "Party of Harmonious Development" on February 11, 2015, and renamed in February 2017 by Mikheil Saakashvili.

At various dates in the run up to the 2019 general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge the opinions that voters hold towards political leaders. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

Various opinion polls were conducted in advance of the 2019 European Parliament election. Before the April delay, a number of polls asked respondents to imagine how they would vote in a then-hypothetical scenario in which European elections would be held.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Potential re-accession of the United Kingdom to the European Union</span>

Following a 2016 referendum, the United Kingdom exited from the European Union at the end of January 2020. Since leaving the EU, numerous polling organisations have conducted surveys to gauge public opinion on rejoining the organisation. The trend of the poll data shows that, over time, support for Brexit has waned, while public opinion in the UK has gradually moved in favour of rejoining the EU.

References

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