2025 Polish presidential election

Last updated

2025 Polish presidential election
Flag of Poland.svg
  2020 By 18 May 20252030 
 
JKRUK 20220903 KAROL NAWROCKI MIELEC DSCN8323A.jpg
EPP Congress Bucharest - Day 1 IMG 8903 (53571547784) (cropped).jpg
Szymon Holownia 31 10 2024.jpg
Candidate Karol Nawrocki Rafał Trzaskowski Szymon Hołownia
Party PiS [a] KO TD

 
Magdalena Biejat 2023.jpg
Slawomir Mentzen Sejm 2022.jpg
Razem.png
Candidate Magdalena Biejat Sławomir Mentzen TBD
Party NL [a] KWiN Together

 
Marek Jakubiak Sejm 2016.JPG
Waldemar Witkowski Kancelaria Senatu 2023.jpg
Marek Woch.webp
Candidate Marek Jakubiak Waldemar Witkowski Marek Woch
Party WR UP BS

Incumbent President

Andrzej Duda
PiS



Presidential elections will be held in Poland on 4, 11, or 18 May 2025, though they can be held earlier should the office become vacated as a result of death, resignation or removal from office of the incumbent. Due to constitutional term limits limiting a president to serve only two terms, incumbent president Andrzej Duda is ineligible for re-election. Presidential elections in Poland must take place on a day free from work (Sunday or a holiday) between 75 and 100 days before the term ends.

Contents

Electoral system

The president is elected for a five-year term using the two-round system; if no candidate receives a majority of the vote in the first round, a run-off is held between the top two candidates. Presidents serve a five-year term and can be re-elected once. The second term of Andrzej Duda expires on 6 August 2025, and the president-elect will take the oath of office on that day, before the National Assembly (a joint session of Sejm and Senate).

Background

Since December 2023 as a result of the 2023 Polish parliamentary election, Donald Tusk's cabinet, comprising of Civic Coalition, Poland 2050, the Polish People's Party, and the New Left, has been governing the country. Tusk's coalition does not have enough votes to bypass the presidential veto, for which it would need 276 votes. [1]

Candidate selection

Declared candidates

NameBornLast position/jobParty
Magdalena Biejat Kancelaria Senatu 2023.jpg

Magdalena Biejat

11 January 1982 (42)

Warsaw, Masovian

Deputy Marshal of the Senate (2023–present)

Senator (2023–present)

New Left [a]
Szymon Holownia 31 10 2024.jpg

Szymon Hołownia

3 September 1976 (48)

Białystok, Podlaskie

Marshal of the Sejm (2023–present)

Member of the Sejm (2023–present)

Third Way
Marek Jakubiak Sejm 2016.JPG

Marek Jakubiak

30 April 1959 (61)

Warsaw, Masovian

Leader of Federation for the Republic (2018–present)

Member of the Sejm (2015–2019, 2023–present)

Free Republicans
3x4.svg

Maciej Maciak

(53)

Włocławek, Kuyavian-Pomeranian

Leader of the Prosperity and Peace Movement  [ pl ]

(2023–present)

Prosperity and Peace Movement  [ pl ]
Slawomir Mentzen Sejm 2022.jpg

Sławomir Mentzen

20 November 1986 (38)

Toruń, Kuyavian–Pomeranian

Chairman of New Hope (2022–present)

Member of the Sejm (2023–present)

Confederation
Karol Nawrocki 2021.jpg

Karol Nawrocki

3 March 1983 (42)

Gdańsk, Pomerania

President of the Institute of National Remembrance (2021–present)

Director of the Museum of the Second World War (2017–2021)

Law and Justice [a]
3x4.svg

Krzysztof Stanowski

21 July 1982 (42)

Warsaw, Masovian

JournalistIndependent
Romuald Starosielec 2019.jpg

Romuald Starosielec

21 September 1960 (64)

Biała Podlaska, Lublin

Leader of Repair Poland (2023–present) Repair Poland
PiotrSzumlewicz demo ZA 1.jpg

Piotr Szumlewicz

19 March 1976 (48)

Warsaw, Masovian

Leader of the Alternative Trade Union (2019–present)Independent
EPP Congress Bucharest - Day 1 IMG 8903 (53571547784) (cropped).jpg

Rafał Trzaskowski

17 January 1972 (53)

Warsaw, Masovian

Mayor of Warsaw (2018–present)

2020 Polish presidential election second round

Civic Coalition
Waldemar Witkowski Sejm 09 (cropped).JPG

Waldemar Witkowski

29 October 1953 (71)

Poznań, Greater Poland

Leader of Labour Union (2006–present)

Senator (2023–present)

Labour Union
Marek Woch.webp

Marek Woch

12 October 1978 (46)

Kąkolewnica, Lublin

Leader of the Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy (2024–present) Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy

Potential candidates

Together Party

Independents

Declined

Law and Justice

Civic Platform

Third Way

Independents

Campaign

First round

Sławomir Mentzen was the first candidate to begin an electoral campaign on 31 August 2024, drawing criticism and accusations of illegality from politicians of other parties for its early start. [17] Marshal of the Sejm Szymon Hołownia from the Poland 2050 party declared his candidacy on 13 November. [18] The Civic Coalition selected its candidate in a presidential primary on 22 November after Minister of Foreign Affairs Radosław Sikorski challenged presumptive nominee, Mayor of Warsaw Rafał Trzaskowski, who was the Civic Coalition's 2020 presidential candidate. [19] Following the Civic Coalition primary, Institute of National Remembrance chairman Karol Nawrocki was endorsed by the Law and Justice party on 24 November as an officially independent candidate, as he never belonged to any political party. [20] Speculation swiftly began on whether PiS would replace Nawrocki when it was revealed that he had contact with a future criminal as part of his time as a boxer two decades prior, for which he was constantly attacked by opposing politicians. [21] Polling showed, however, that the vast plurality of people did not expect Nawrocki to be replaced. [22]

Second round

The second round of the election is, according to polls, expected to be contested by Nawrocki and Trzaskowski.

Opinion polls

Graphical summary

2025 Polish Presidential Polling.svg

1st round

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork
date
Sample
size
Błaszczak
PiS
Bocheński
PiS
Czarnek
PiS
Jaki
PiS
Morawiecki
PiS
Nawrocki
PiS
Witek
PiS
Sikorski
PO
Trzaskowski
PO
Tusk
PO
Hołownia
PL2050
Kosiniak-Kamysz
PSL
Biedroń
NL
Dziemianowicz-Bąk
NL
Biejat
Razem/NL
Zandberg
Razem
Bosak
Confederation
Mentzen
Confederation
Jakubiak
WR
OthersDon't knowLead
Opinia24 / RMF FM Dec 20241,00023.338.67.42.610.71.36.69.515.3
Pollster / "SE.pl" 10–11 Dec 20241,00528.7041.9610.673.2612.682.7313.26
United Surveys / WP.pl 6–8 Dec 20241,00030.336.97.94.87.30.512.36.6
SW Research / Wprost Nov 202413.138.68.511.83.724.225.5
Pollster / "SE.pl" 25–26 Nov 20241,01521351041141514
Opinia24 / TVN24 Nov 202426419128415
United Surveys / WP.pl 22–24 Nov 20241,00024.540.49.27.510.72.25.515.9
United Surveys / WP.pl 21 Nov 20241,00027.835.810.95.19.910.58.0
28.932.312.06.79.810.33.4
United Surveys / WP.pl 8–10 Nov 20241,00027.234.810.66.510.72.28.07.6
27.529.410.58.511.52.010.61.9
United Surveys / WP.pl 11–13 Oct 20241,00026.639.411.45.99.37.412.8
26.025.515.18.513.011.90.5
IBRiS / Rzeczpospolita 11–12 Oct 20241,07122.234.210.27.78.63.7 [b] 13.412.0
IBRiS / Onet 10 Sep 20241,00026.433.08.84.98.44.1 [c] 14.36.6
23.832.98.64.98.17.6 [d] 14.09.1
17.234.88.84.99.27.3 [e] 17.717.6
United Surveys / WP.pl 26–28 Jul 20241,00027.632.411.27.915.65.34.8
United Surveys / DGP, RMF 26–28 Jul 20241,00029.334.810.18.47.92.07.45.5
IPSOS / DoRzeczy.pl 1–3 Jul 20241,00027331171396
28321161584
United Surveys / WP.pl 7–9 Jun 20241,00024.829.213.62.66.67.1 [f] 16.14.4
United Surveys / WP.pl 24–26 May 20241,00025.629.210.23.47.98.2 [g] 15.53.6
United Surveys / WP.pl 10–12 May 20241,00025.529.613.84.49.317.44.1
OGB / Stan Polityki 22–25 Apr 20248047.2026.1529.345.7712.743.421.221.556.715.903.19
United Surveys / WP.pl 6–7 Apr 20241,00022.429.017.13.33.84.78.6 [h] 11.26.6
IPSOS / OKO.press, TOK FM 22–26 Feb 20241,0002526164103 [i] 91
United Surveys / WP.pl 23–25 Feb 20241,00025.930.823.14.58.07.74.9
Pollster / SE.pl 11 Feb 20241,06020.9232.5325.215.452.657.665.58 [j] 7.32
United Surveys / WP.pl 10–11 Feb 20241,00024.322.224.81.31.96.59.0 [k] 10.00.5
IBRiS / Radio Zet 9–10 Feb 20241,07016.128.324.05.2 [l] 26.44.3
IBRiS / Onet 26–27 Jan 20241,07024.925.824.64.33.58.08.90.9
Pollster / SE.pl 17 Dec 20231,0332730205183
United Surveys / DGP, RMF 8–10 Dec 20231,0002.69.91.224.50.911.91.22.72.21.633.1 [m] 6.612.6
IBRiS / Onet 24–25 Nov 202329.934.611.76.37.21.5 [n] 8.94.7
21.425.616.78.68.08.011.74.2
United Surveys / WP.pl 17–19 Nov 20231,00019.033.813.44.58.318.3 [o] 2.714.8

2nd round

LOESS curve for the 2025 Polish Presidential Election 2nd Round. Head-to-Head Polish 2025 Presidential Polling.svg
LOESS curve for the 2025 Polish Presidential Election 2nd Round.

Nawrocki v. Trzaskowski

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork
date
Sample
size
Nawrocki
PiS
Trzaskowski
PO
Don't knowAbstainLead
Opinia24 / RMF FM Dec 20241,00034.148.917.014.8
United Surveys / WP.pl 6–8 Dec 20241,00041.250.36.12.49.1
Pollster / "SE.pl" 25–26 Nov 20241,015425816
Opinia24 / TVN24 Nov 20244152711
United Surveys / WP.pl 22–24 Nov 20241,00033.755.96.83.622.2
IBRiS / "Rz" 22–23 Nov 20241,06826.249.712.311.823.5
IBRiS / "Wydarzenia" Polsat 7–9 Nov 20241,00036.449.9913.813.61
United Surveys / WP.pl 25–27 Oct 20241,00037.655.86.618.2

Hołownia v. Nawrocki

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork
date
Sample
size
Hołownia
PL2050
Nawrocki
PiS
Don't knowLead
Pollster / "SE.pl" 25–26 Nov 20241,015584216

Hołownia v. Trzaskowski

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork
date
Sample
size
Hołownia
PL2050
Trzaskowski
PO
Don't knowLead
Pollster / "SE.pl" 25–26 Nov 20241,015336734
United Surveys / WP.pl 25–27 Oct 20241,00029.551.618.922.1

Hypothetical polling

Hypothetical polling with different PiS candidate
Bocheński v. Trzaskowski
Polling firm/LinkFieldwork
date
Sample
size
Bocheński
PiS
Trzaskowski
PO
Don't knowLead
OGB / Stan Polityki 22–25 Apr 202480444.5955.4110.82
Czarnek v. Trzaskowski
Polling firm/LinkFieldwork
date
Sample
size
Czarnek
PiS
Trzaskowski
PO
Don't knowLead
IBRiS / "Wydarzenia" Polsat 7–9 Nov 20241,00035.250.915.915.7
Jaki v. Trzaskowski
Polling firm/LinkFieldwork
date
Sample
size
Jaki
PiS
Trzaskowski
PO
Don't knowLead
IPSOS / DoRzeczy.pl 1–3 Jul 20241,00039491210
Morawiecki v. Trzaskowski
Polling firm/LinkFieldwork
date
Sample
size
Morawiecki
PiS
Trzaskowski
PO
Don't knowLead
IPSOS / DoRzeczy.pl 1–3 Jul 20241,00038481410
Pollster 15 Jun 2024386224
PiS candidate v. Trzaskowski
Polling firm/LinkFieldwork
date
Sample
size

PiS
Trzaskowski
PO
Don't knowLead
United Surveys / WP.pl 21 Nov 20241,00039.258.52.319.3
IPSOS / PO  ? ?3653817
Hypothetical polling with Radosław Sikorski as KO candidate
Nawrocki v. Sikorski
Polling firm/LinkFieldwork
date
Sample
size
Nawrocki
PiS
Sikorski
PO
Don't knowLead
IBRiS / "Wydarzenia" Polsat 7–9 Nov 20241,00036.346.716.910.4
United Surveys / WP.pl 25–27 Oct 20241,00038.354.17.615.8
Czarnek v. Sikorski
Polling firm/LinkFieldwork
date
Sample
size
Czarnek
PiS
Sikorski
PO
Don't knowLead
IBRiS / "Wydarzenia" Polsat 7–9 Nov 20241,00035.346.518.311.2
PiS candidate v. Sikorski
Polling firm/LinkFieldwork
date
Sample
size

PiS
Sikorski
PO
Don't knowLead
United Surveys / WP.pl 21 Nov 20241,00042.454.92.712.5

Results

The results of the election will be published by the National Electoral Commission following their conclusion.

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 Independent endorsed by the party.
  2. Paulina Matysiak (Razem) – 3.7
  3. Jacek Siewiera (ind.) – 4.1
  4. Jacek Siewiera (ind.) – 7.6
  5. Jacek Siewiera (ind.) – 7.3
  6. Dorota Gawryluk  [ pl ] (ind.) – 7.1
  7. Dorota Gawryluk  [ pl ] (ind.) – 8.2
  8. Beata Szydło (PiS) – 8.6
  9. Krzysztof Stanowski (ind.) – 3
  10. Dorota Gawryluk  [ pl ] (ind.) – 1.89, Krzysztof Stanowski (ind.) – 1.11
  11. Beata Szydło (PiS) – 9.0
  12. Krzysztof Stanowski (ind.) – 3.2, Dorota Gawryluk  [ pl ] (ind.) – 0.2
  13. Adam Bodnar (ind.) – 1.4, Kacper Płażyński (PiS) – 1.3, Jarosław Kaczyński (PiS) – 1.3
  14. Joanna Scheuring-Wielgus (NL) – 1.5
  15. Beata Szydło (PiS) – 7.7

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  14. "Dorota Gawryluk wydaje oświadczenie. To reakcja na prezydenckie sondaże z jej nazwiskiem" [Dorota Gawryluk issues a statement. It's a reaction to the presidential poll with her name on it]. www.pap.pl (in Polish). Retrieved 13 August 2024.
  15. "Jacek Siewiera kandydatem na prezydenta? Szef BBN odpowiada". TVN24 (in Polish). Retrieved 2024-08-13.
  16. "Gen. Rajmund Andrzejczak kandydatem na prezydenta? Jest jasna deklaracja" [Gen. Rajmund Andrzejczak a presidential candidate? There is a clear declaration]. Rzeczpospolita (in Polish). Archived from the original on 1 March 2024. Retrieved 13 August 2024. O zamiar kandydowania w wyborach prezydenckich generał rezerwy został zapytany w piątek w RMF FM. — Nie jestem zawodowym politykiem (...) Jestem zawodowym oficerem — odparł wojskowy. — Na pewno nie — mówił, dopytywany o jasną deklarację w sprawie startu.[The reserve general was asked about his intention to run in the presidential elections on Friday on RMF FM. "I am not a professional politician (...) I am a professional officer," the military man replied. "Certainly not," he said, when asked about a clear declaration regarding his participation.]
  17. "Mentzen ruszył z kampanią,"łamiąc prawo"? Oto "szara strefa polskiej polityki"". 2024-09-03. Retrieved 2024-12-14.
  18. "Szymon Hołownia ogłosił decyzję w sprawie startu w wyborach prezydenckich". 2024-11-13.
  19. "Polish foreign minister and Warsaw mayor to compete for presidential nomination in primary vote". TVP World . 9 November 2024. Archived from the original on 14 November 2024. Retrieved 14 November 2024.
  20. "Oficjalnie: Karol Nawrocki kandydatem PiS-u na prezydenta". 2024-11-24. Retrieved 2024-12-14.
  21. "Znajomości z gangsterem. "Nasze relacje były publiczne"". 2024-12-07. Retrieved 2024-12-14.
  22. "Sondaż: Kto mógłby zastąpić Karola Nawrockiego jako kandydat PiS na prezydenta?". 2024-12-07. Retrieved 2024-12-14.