Opinion polling for the 2020 Irish general election

Last updated

Numerous polls of support for political parties in Ireland were taken between the 2016 general election and the 2020 general election, which was held on Saturday 8 February 2020. Opinion polls on voting intentions are conducted regularly.

Contents

The most frequent were commissioned by media organisations and were published on an approximately monthly basis by The Sunday Times (which uses Behaviour and Attitudes on an exclusive basis) and The Sunday Business Post (which uses the Red C polling company).

Less frequently polls were published by The Irish Times , the Sunday Independent , RTÉ, and others.

Graphical summary

Graph of opinion polls conducted. Trend lines represent local regressions. Ireland 2020 polls.svg
Graph of opinion polls conducted. Trend lines represent local regressions.

Key polls

As methodologies and results differ, even where polls are taken over the same dates, the results of the two main polling companies are shown separately:

Sunday Business Post / Red C poll

Red C Opinion Polling, Ireland, 2016 - 2018.png

The Sunday Times / B&A poll

B&A Opinion Polling, Ireland, 2016 - 2018.png

National opinion polls

All opinion polls shown below were commissioned by print or broadcast media outlets, with the exception of the Survation poll conducted up to 2 February 2020, which was commissioned by Sinn Féin.

Color key:

  Exit poll  Private poll

Last date
of polling
Polling firm / CommissionerSample
size
FG FF SF Lab S–PBP SD GP RI IA O/I [nb 1]
8 February 2020 General election 20.922.224.54.42.62.97.10.3-12.2 [nb 2] [nb 3]
8 February 2020 Ipsos MRBI/RTÉ/Irish Times/TG4/UCD [1] [2] 5,30022.422.222.34.62.83.47.9 [nb 4] [nb 5] 14.5
2 February 2020 Survation/Sinn Féin 1,0741722256539 [nb 4] 112 [nb 3]
1 February 2020 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times [p 1] 1,2002023254228 [nb 4] < 116 [nb 6] [nb 3]
30 January 2020 Red C/Business Post [p 2] [p 3] 1,0002124245137 [nb 4] [nb 5] 13 [nb 7] [nb 3]
30 January 2020Panelbase/The Times (Ireland) [p 4] 1,00019232155510??12
25 January 2020 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday [p 5] 1,03122272061310 [nb 4] [nb 5] 11 [nb 6] [nb 3]
23 January 2020 Red C/Business Post [p 6] 1,0002326194238 [nb 4] [nb 5] 15 [nb 6] [nb 3]
18 January 2020 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times [p 7] [p 8] 1,2002325215228 [nb 4] 113
14 January 2020 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 9] [p 10] 92320321942171310
24 December 2019Ireland Thinks/Irish Daily Mail1,5852825155337 [nb 4] [nb 8] 16
17 December 2019Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 11] [p 12] 9362727206316 [nb 4] 29 [nb 9] [nb 10]
21 November 2019Red C/The Sunday Business Post [p 13] [p 14] 1,0003024116227 [nb 4] 414 [nb 11]
12 November 2019Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 15] [p 16] 92327251762260411 [nb 9] [nb 12]
24 October 2019Red C/The Sunday Business Post [3] 1,0003224114127 [nb 4] 415 [nb 11]
15 October 2019Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [4] ?2928165316029 [nb 9] [nb 13]
13 October 2019 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times [p 17] [p 18] 1,2002925146118 [nb 4] <114
17 September 2019Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [5] [6] 92926292031151410 [nb 9] [nb 14]
12 September 2019Red C/The Sunday Business Post [7] 1,00029281261170313 [nb 9] [nb 15]
16 July 2019Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [8] [9] 9022630145217148
11 June 2019Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [10] 900232812521111313
24 May 2019 Red C/RTÉ/TG4 [11] 2,671262315523121211
16 May 2019Red C/The Sunday Business Post [12] [13] 2,00028241352271216 [nb 16] [nb 17]
14 May 2019Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [12] 9332828194315 [nb 4] 39
8 May 2019Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times [14] 1,5002926167 [nb 18] [nb 18] 4 [nb 18] [nb 18] 18 [nb 18]
17 April 2019Red C/The Sunday Business Post [15] 1,0003323145123 [nb 4] 217 [nb 11] [nb 19]
16 April 2019Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [15] 9332829214111 [nb 4] 410
28 March 2019Red C/The Sunday Business Post [16] 1,00031251352330 [nb 20] 315 [nb 21]
12 March 2019Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [17] 93031251951030212
5 March 2019Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times [18] 1,2003024216212 [nb 4] 113
20 February 2019Red C/The Sunday Business Post [19] 1,00031241851220215
12 February 2019Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [20] 91030261852121214
24 January 2019Red C/The Sunday Business Post [21] 1,00032221362230514
15 January 2019Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [22] 9073026204212 [nb 4] 213
21 December 2018Ireland Thinks/Irish Daily Mail [23] 1,5463223167434 [nb 4] [nb 8] 13
18 December 2018Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [24] [25] 9113129175223 [nb 4] 210
13 December 2018 Millward Brown/The Sunday Independent [26] [27] 9203227215121 [nb 4] 46
22 November 2018Red C/The Sunday Business Post [28] 1,00034271360230510
13 November 2018Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [29] [30] 9053027236211 [nb 4] 19
26 October 2018 Red C/RTÉ News [31] [32] 3,47435221572340111 [nb 22]
17 October 2018Red C/The Sunday Business Post [33] 1,0003325155024 [nb 4] 412
16 October 2018Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [34] 9403127196202029
12 October 2018Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times [35] 1,2003325244312 [nb 4] 16
10 October 2018 Red C/Paddy Power [36] 1,00032271452130313
18 September 2018Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [37] [38] 9403225205303048
13 September 2018Red C/The Sunday Business Post [39] [40] [41] 1,00033221462221413
24 August 2018Ireland Thinks/Irish Daily Mail [42] 9422924196122 [nb 4] [nb 8] 17
17 July 2018Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [43] [44] [45] 93134212231120410
12 June 2018Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [46] [47] 9313124244212039
16 May 2018Red C/The Sunday Business Post [48] [49] 1,0003425166312049
15 May 2018Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [50] [p 19] 9353023244212 [nb 4] 310
30 April 2018Millward Brown/The Sunday Independent [51] [52] 1,00334272251 [nb 23] 3 [nb 4] 52
26 April 2018Red C/The Sunday Business Post [53] 1,00032251462221213
18 April 2018Ireland Thinks/Irish Daily Mail [54] ?2926165434 [nb 4] [nb 8] 13
17 April 2018Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 20] 92833252161121210
17 April 2018Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times [55] 1,2003126225213 [nb 4] 19
22 March 2018Red C/The Sunday Business Post [56] [57] 1,00033241662222112
13 March 2018Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [58] [59] 9003227196212 [nb 4] 310
22 February 2018Red C/The Sunday Business Post [60] [61] 1,00032291461221310
14 February 2018Millward Brown/The Sunday Independent [62] [63] 9703628204112 [nb 4] 311
13 February 2018Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [64] [65] 9263625165311 [nb 4] 49
25 January 2018Red C/The Sunday Business Post [66] [67] 1,0033226156324039
23 January 2018Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times [68] [p 21] 1,2003425194213 [nb 4] 111
16 January 2018Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [69] [70] 9203226186212 [nb 4] 49
24 December 2017Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 22] 9133426175222 [nb 4] 48
22 December 2017Ireland Thinks/Irish Daily Mail [p 23] 1,1443326166322 [nb 4] [nb 8] 12
7 December 2017Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times [p 24] [p 25] 1,2003625194113 [nb 4] 110
23 November 2017Red C/The Sunday Business Post [p 26] [p 27] 1,00427261663341410
7 November 2017Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 28] 9193431143312038
20 October 2017Red C/The Sunday Business Post [p 29] 1,00429251464240412
10 October 2017Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 30] 91531271941120312
2 October 2017Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times [p 31] [p 32] 1,2003129194223019
22 September 2017Red C/The Sunday Business Post [p 33] [p 34] 1,00430261654421210
12 September 2017Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 35] [p 36] 93733251951120410
21 July 2017Millward Brown/The Sunday Independent [p 37] [p 38] 9563029207102 [nb 4] 57
11 July 2017Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 39] [p 40] 9232930185212049
5 July 2017Red C/The Sunday Business Post [p 41] [p 42] 1,0002724186424348
10 June 2017Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 43] [p 44] 1,0042929185113159
25 May 2017Red C/The Sunday Business Post [p 45] [p 46] 1,00429211563431315
13 May 2017Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 47] 94528271841121414
28 April 2017Red C/The Sunday Business Post [p 48] 1,00424281864431210
11 April 2017Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 49] 9372928185222 [nb 4] [nb 5] 11
24 March 2017Red C/The Sunday Business Post [p 50] 1,00424261764340313
8 March 2017Behaviour & Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 51] 9342228236212069
28 February 2017Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times [p 52] [p 53] 1,2002829214313 [nb 24] 29
23 February 2017Red C/The Sunday Business Post [p 54] [p 55] 1,00424261946341310
16 February 2017Millward Brown/The Sunday Independent [p 56] [p 57] 9602533206322 [nb 4] 54
8 February 2017Behaviour & Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 58] 95521321963220510
26 January 2017Red C/The Sunday Business Post [p 59] [p 60] 1,00424271454441314
21 January 2017Behaviour & Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 61] 92123291755130315
13 December 2016Behaviour & Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 62] 9242628195313159
6 December 2016Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times [p 63] [p 64] 1,2002730176323 [nb 24] 210
25 November 2016Red C/The Sunday Business Post [p 65] [p 66] 1,00025241655431412
9 November 2016Behaviour & Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 67] 92428301733020511
27 October 2016Red C/The Sunday Business Post [p 68] [p 69] 1,00225261359330610
20 October 2016Millward Brown/The Sunday Independent [p 70] [p 71] 9422927208512 [nb 4] 53
12 October 2016Behaviour & Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 72] 91726301752121411
4 October 2016Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times [p 73] [p 74] 1,2002626195323 [nb 24] [nb 8] 15
22 September 2016Red C/The Sunday Business Post [p 75] [p 76] 1,00225271576420410
14 September 2016Behaviour & Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 77] 91123281874120412
27 July 2016Red C/Paddy Power [p 78] [p 79] 1,00027281544330510
13 July 2016Red C/The Sunday Business Post [p 80] [p 81] 1,0042629136544158
13 July 2016Behaviour & Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 82] 90925301465220412
7 July 2016Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times [p 83] [p 84] 1,2002433165224 [nb 24] 211
29 June 2016Millward Brown/The Sunday Independent [p 85] [p 86] 1,0003026207423 [nb 24] [nb 8] 8
15 June 2016Behaviour & Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 87] 91325261754131611
26 May 2016Red C/The Sunday Business Post [p 88] 1,00426261565420411
11 May 2016Behaviour & Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 89] [p 90] 8982627165424079
11 May 2016Red C/Paddy Power [p 91] [p 92] 1,01527251656431310
13 April 2016Behaviour & Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 93] [p 94] 92623261744231812
10 March 2016Red C/The Sunday Business Post [p 95] [p 96] 1,0062725154453259
26 February 2016 General election 25.524.313.86.63.93.02.72.24.213.7 [nb 25]

Preferred Taoiseach

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisationSample size Leo Varadkar Micheál Martin Lead
31 January 2020 Amárach Research 1,00047%53%6%
24 January 2020 Amárach Research 1,00043%57%14%
17 January 2020 Amárach Research 1,00045%55%10%

Constituency opinion polls

Donegal

Last date
of polling
Polling firm / CommissionerSample
size
FF SF FG GP Aon Pringle O'Donnell Casey McConnellLead
8 February 2020 General election 20.445.113.82.13.17.16.11.50.824.7
23 January 2020 TG4/Ipsos MRBI [p 97] 55022392043642117
26 February 2016 General election 31.027.515.40.68.53.5

Galway West

Last date
of polling
Polling firm / CommissionerSample
size
FF FG SF SD Lab GP S-PBP Aon Connolly Grealish CubbardLead
8 February 2020 General election 22.718.114.06.02.66.01.51.89.013.34.44.6
26 January 2020 TG4/Ipsos MRBI [p 98] 5252023712510219733
28 February 2016 General election 24.224.08.95.05.02.52.0-7.611.23.00.2

Kerry

Last date
of polling
Polling firm / CommissionerSample
size
M Healy-Rae FF SF FG GP Aon D Healy-Rae Cronin O'Leary Lead
8 February 2020 General election 21.720.720.318.45.31.411.20.501.0
2 February 2020 TG4/Ipsos MRBI [71] 53819.623.020.023.09.02.03.910Tie
26 February 2016 General election 25.715.811.921.41.3-12.63.0

Footnotes

  1. This column includes figures for Independents 4 Change and Aontú when available.
  2. Aontú is on 1.9%.
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 The figure for 'Others/Independents' is the remainder when all others are removed. As with all such calculations, the figure shown may be slightly inaccurate due to rounding effects.
  4. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 Renua is not mentioned.
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 IA are not mentioned.
  6. 1 2 3 Aontú is on 1%.
  7. Aontú is on 2%.
  8. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 The poll makes no distinction between different groupings of Independents, the Independent Alliance is included in the figure for Others.
  9. 1 2 3 4 5 Aontú is on 0%.
  10. The 9% figure for 'Others/Independents' is the remainder when all others are removed. As with all such calculations, the figure shown may be slightly inaccurate due to rounding effects.
  11. 1 2 3 Aontú has 1%.
  12. The 9% figure for 'Others/Independents' is the remainder when all others are removed. As with all such calculations, the figure shown may be slightly inaccurate due to rounding effects.
  13. The 9% figure for 'Others/Independents' is the remainder when all others are removed. As with all such calculations, the figure shown may be slightly inaccurate due to rounding effects.
  14. The 10% figure for 'Others/Independents' is the remainder when all others are removed. As with all such calculations, the figure shown may be slightly inaccurate due to rounding effects.
  15. The 13% figure for 'Others/Independents' is the remainder when all others are removed. As with all such calculations, the figure shown may be slightly inaccurate due to rounding effects.
  16. Aontú is on 2%.
  17. The 16% figure for 'Others/Independents' is got by adding the cited 2% for Aontú to the 14% cited for 'other Independent candidates'. As with all such calculations, the figure shown may be slightly inaccurate due to rounding effects.
  18. 1 2 3 4 5 The 18% figure shown for Independents/Others is calculated by subtracting the cited source's 4% for the Greens from that source's 22% for Independents and all other parties except Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin, and Labour, so the 18% figure shown may be slightly inaccurate due to rounding effects. The cited source does not give figures for other parties or alliances, but states that it includes the Green Party, Social Democrats and Solidarity-PBP.
  19. A figure for 'Others/Independents' is not mentioned in the cited source, but has been calculated by subtracting the other parties from 100%, so the figure shown may be slightly inaccurate due to rounding effects.
  20. Renua has less than 1%.
  21. Aontú has less than 1%.
  22. This figure includes 2% for Independents 4 Change.
  23. Social Democrats are not mentioned.
  24. 1 2 3 4 5 Renua is featured in Others.
  25. This figure includes 1.5% for Independents 4 Change.

Opinion poll sources

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