Opinion polling for the 2026 Senedd election

In the run-up to the 2026 Senedd election, various organisations are conducting opinion polls to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. The pollsters listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abided by its disclosure rules.

The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous Senedd election, held on 6 May 2021, to the next election, to be held on 7 May 2026.

Opinion polling

Polling using the 2026 electoral system

For the election to be held in May 2026, Wales has been divided into 16 multi-member constituencies, each based on a pairing of two adjacent constituences used for the UK Parliament since 2024. Each of these 16 constituencies will elect 6 members of the Senedd using a system of proportional representation.^{[ citation needed ]}

LOESS curve of polling conducted

  Sample size below 1,000. ^[a]

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Lab	Con	Plaid Cymru	Green	Lib Dems	Reform	Others	Lead
23 Oct2025	2025 Caerphilly by-election, Plaid Cymru gain from Labour
22 Sep–12 Oct2025	Beaufort Research	Nation.Cymru	533	23%	11%	22%	9%	4%	30%	1%	7
4–10 Sep2025	YouGov	Barn Cymru / ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University	1,232	14%	11%	30%	6%	6%	29%	4%	1
18 Jun–3 Jul2025	Beaufort Research	Nation.Cymru	400	27%	13%	21%	6%	5%	25%	2%	2
18 Jun–3 Jul2025	More in Common	Sky News	883	23%	10%	26%	4%	7%	28%	2%	2
5–16 Jun2025	FindOutNow	N/A	2,101	18%	11%	27%	7%	7%	29%	1%	2
23–30 Apr2025	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University	1,265	18%	13%	30%	5%	7%	25%	2%	5
10 Mar–3 Apr2025	Survation	N/A	809	27%	15%	24%	5%	5%	24%	1%	3
3–23 Mar2025	Beaufort Research	Nation.Cymru	1,000	27%	16%	24%	5%	4%	23%	1%	3
25–29 Nov2024	YouGov [2]	Barn Cymru	1,121	23%	19%	24%	6%	5%	23%	1%	1
4–24 Nov2024	Beaufort Research	Nation.Cymru	500	27%	18%	17%	6%	6%	24%	2%	3
18 Oct–4 Nov2024	Survation [s 1]	Reform UK	2,006	29%	18%	20%	7%	7%	19%	1%	9
6 Aug2024	Eluned Morgan becomes First Minister of Wales [3]
5–18 Jul2024	Welsh Election Study	N/A	2,565	25%	16%	24%	6%	6%	16%	8% AWA on 7% Other on 1%	1
4 Jul2024	2024 United Kingdom general election
27 Jun–1 Jul2024	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,072	27%	18%	23%	5%	6%	18%	3%	4
5–7 Jun2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	960	36%	22%	18%	6%	6%	11%	2% AWA on 2% Other on 0%	14
30 May–3 Jun2024	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,066	30%	19%	23%	6%	6%	12%	4%	7
18–19 May2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	900	37%	20%	20%	5%	3%	10%	5% AWA on 5% Other on 0%	17
8 May2024	The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026.
6 May2021	2021 Senedd election (regional) [4]		–	36.2%	25.1%	20.7%	4.4%	4.3%	1.1%	8.2%	11.1
6 May2021	2021 Senedd election (constituency) [4]		–	39.9%	26.1%	20.3%	1.6%	4.9%	1.6%	5.6%	13.8

Past opinion polling

The following polls used questions designed for the two forms of voting in previous Senedd elections, that are to be abolished in the next Senedd election planned for 2026.

Regional vote

  Sample size below 1,000. ^[a]

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Lab	Con	Plaid Cymru	Green	Lib Dems	Reform	AWA	Others	Lead
24 Jun2024	The Senedd Reform Act receives Royal assent, abolishing the additional member system by 2026.
22–23 Apr2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	840	33%	18%	19%	6%	7%	12%	5%	1% Other on 1%	14
23–24 Mar2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	878	32%	16%	18%	9%	7%	11%	6%	1% Other on 1%	14
20 Mar2024	Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales [5]
18 Feb2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	874	29%	16%	25%	4%	8%	10%	7%	1% Other on 1%	4
24–26 Jan2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	34%	19%	21%	6%	6%	7%	6%	1% Other on 1%	13
10–11 Dec2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,086	28%	20%	24%	7%	8%	7%	4%	1% Other on 1%	4
12–13 Nov2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	32%	21%	18%	9%	6%	7%	5%	1% Other on 1%	11
14–15 Oct2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	959	31%	21%	24%	4%	5%	8%	7%	0% Other on 0%	10
16–17 Sep2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,172	35%	21%	18%	6%	12%	5%	2%	1% Other on 1%	14
1–6 Sep2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,051	34%	16%	20%	6%	6%	6%	9%	3% UKIP on 1% Other on 2%	14
13–14 Aug2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,068	31%	19%	22%	6%	10%	10%	-	3%	9
14–16 Jul2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,050	33%	20%	19%	6%	10%	6%	-	4%	13
17–18 Jun2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	30%	22%	20%	6%	9%	8%	-	4%	8
16 Jun2023	Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes Leader of Plaid Cymru
12–17 May2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,064	36%	16%	18%	7%	7%	7%	5%	2% UKIP on 1% Other on 1%	18
14–15 May2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,058	30%	21%	24%	4%	10%	8%	-	4%	6
15–17 Apr2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,251	32%	22%	23%	7%	8%	7%	-	2%	9
3–7 Feb2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,081	39%	18%	20%	5%	5%	6%	6%	2% Other on 2%	19
25 Nov–1 Dec2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,042	38%	16%	23%	5%	2%	4%	8%	4% UKIP on 2% Gwlad on 1% Other on 1%	15
20–22 Sep2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,014	37%	18%	21%	5%	5%	4%	7%	3% UKIP on 2% Other on 1%	16
12–16 Jun2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,020	31%	21%	24%	6%	5%	6%	6%	4% UKIP on 2% Gwlad on 1% Other on 1%	7
25 Feb–1 Mar2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,086	34%	23%	20%	4%	6%	3%	6%	3% UKIP on 1% Gwlad on 1% Other on 1%	11
13–16 Dec2021	YouGov	ITV Wales	1,009	35%	22%	19%	7%	3%	5%	6%	3% UKIP on 2% Other on 1%	13
13–16 Sep2021	YouGov	ITV Wales	1,057	33%	26%	19%	5%	4%	2%	6%	5% UKIP on 4% Other on 1%	7
6 May2021	2021 Senedd election [4]		–	36.2%	25.1%	20.7%	4.4%	4.3%	1.1%	3.7%	4.5%	11.1

By section

Date conducted	Subsection	Sample size	Lab	Con	Plaid Cymru	Green	Lib Dems	Reform	Lead
November 2024 [6]	South West Wales and the Valleys	1000 (500)	28	13	19	4	6	27	1
	Cardiff and South East Wales		34	23	10	6	8	16	11
	North and Mid Wales		21	18	24	8	4	24	Tie
	Male voters		28	20	10	6	7	27	1
	Female voters		27	15	26	6	5	20	1
	Aged 16-34		37	9	21	9	7	17	16
	Aged 34-54		32	15	21	4	8	19	11
	Aged over 55		21	22	15	6	5	29	7
	ABC1		28	23	18	7	6	15	5
	C2DE		26	11	17	5	6	34	8
	Welsh speakers		24	16	31	5	6	17	7
	Non-Welsh speakers		29	18	13	6	6	26	3

Constituency vote

LOESS curve of the polling for the next Senedd Election Constituency Votes.

  Sample size below 1,000. ^[a]

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Lab	Con	Plaid Cymru	Lib Dems	Green	Reform	Other	Lead
8 May2024	The Senedd Reform Act is approved, abolishing the additional member system by 2026.
22–23 Apr2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	840	37%	21%	22%	4%	3%	10%	3% AWA on 3% Other on 0%	15
23–24 Mar2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	878	36%	21%	21%	3%	3%	11%	4% AWA on 3% Other on 1%	15
20 Mar2024	Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales [5]
18 Feb2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	874	34%	21%	19%	4%	3%	13%	6% AWA on 7% Other on 1%	13
24–26 Jan2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	39%	25%	18%	3%	4%	9%	4% AWA on 3% Other on 1%	14
10–11 Dec2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,086	41%	22%	17%	7%	3%	7%	3% AWA on 3% Other on 0%	19
12–13 Nov2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	40%	23%	18%	3%	4%	7%	4% AWA on 3% Other on 1%	17
14–15 Oct2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	959	37%	27%	18%	4%	3%	6%	5% AWA on 5% Other on 0%	10
16–17 Sep2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,172	39%	27%	18%	5%	6%	3%	2% AWA on 1% Other on 1%	12
1–6 Sep2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,051	41%	18%	19%	6%	4%	8%	7%	22
13–14 Aug2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,068	37%	21%	20%	6%	3%	9%	4%	16
14–16 Jul2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,050	42%	22%	16%	6%	3%	7%	3%	20
17–18 Jun2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	36%	22%	19%	7%	3%	10%	3%	14
12–17 May2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,064	40%	18%	17%	7%	5%	8%	4%	22
14–15 May2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,058	38%	23%	20%	7%	3%	7%	2%	15
15–17 Apr2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,251	41%	21%	20%	5%	4%	8%	2%	20
3–7 Feb2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,081	43%	18%	20%	4%	4%	9%	1%	23
25 Nov–1 Dec2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,042	44%	17%	20%	6%	3%	7%	4%	24
20–22 Sep2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,014	40%	20%	22%	6%	3%	5%	4%	18
12–16 Jun2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,020	37%	24%	21%	6%	5%	5%	3%	13
25 Feb–1 Mar2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,086	38%	24%	21%	6%	3%	5%	4%	14
13–16 Dec2021	YouGov	ITV Wales	1,009	40%	23%	17%	4%	5%	7%	4%	17
13–16 Sep2021	YouGov	ITV Wales	1,057	37%	27%	19%	5%	4%	5%	5%	10
6 May2021	2021 Senedd election [4]		–	39.9%	26.1%	20.3%	4.9%	1.6%	1.6%	5.6%	13.8

See also

• List of political parties in Wales
• Opinion polling on Welsh independence
• Polling in Wales for 2024 United Kingdom general election
• Polling in Wales for the next United Kingdom general election

Notes

1. The British Polling Council states that a sample size of at least 1,000 is the "established norm" for any poll in Great Britain. However, there is no "minimum" acceptable sample size. ^[1]

1. Survation asked voters to give their preferences under the current Additional Member System. The figure shown in this table is the proportional (regional) vote, as that is the closest equivalent to the new party list system.

References

1. "FAQs About Polling". British Polling Council.
2. "Plaid Cymru leads new Senedd poll with Conservatives in 4th place". Nation.Cymru. 1 December 2024. Retrieved 2 December 2024.
3. Allen, Briony (6 August 2024). "Welsh Labour leadership: How Eluned Morgan was selected as first minister of Wales". Institute for Government. Retrieved 3 March 2025.
4. Davies, Owain; Holzinger, Owen; McCarthy, Joanne; Jones, Helen (2021). Senedd Election 2021: Research Briefing (PDF). Senedd Research. p. 16.
5. Browne, Adrian; Deans, David (19 March 2024). "Vaughan Gething confirmed as Wales' new first minister". BBC News. Retrieved 30 March 2024.
6. Mansfield, Mark (18 December 2024). "New Senedd election poll puts Labour in the lead - with Reform snapping at their heels". Nation.Cymru. Retrieved 10 March 2025.