Electorate opinion polling and projections for the next Australian federal election

Various research and polling firms are conducting opinion polling before the next Australian federal election in individual electorates across Australia, in relation to voting intentions in the House of Representatives. Several firms are also conducting MRP polls, which are projections based on national data, rather than polls in the relevant electorate. ^[1]

Australian Capital Territory

Bean

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				ALP	IND	LIB	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	IND
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	41%	—	21%	11%	7%	20%	53%	47%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			41.1%	26.4%	23.0%	9.5%	—	—	50.3%	49.7%

Canberra

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				ALP	GRN	LIB	IND	ONP	OTH	ALP	GRN	LIB
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	47%	20%	18%	—	5%	10%	73%	—	27%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			48.3%	19.8%	18.3%	10.9%	—	2.7%	69.5%	30.5%	—

Fenner

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	51%	20%	17%	5%	7%	70%	30%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			53.8%	21.9%	16.4%	—	7.9%	72.1%	27.9%

New South Wales

Banks

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				LIB	ALP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	LIB
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	32%	36%	12%	12%	—	8%	54%	46%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			39.1%	36.4%	11.9%	3.7%	2.0%	6.9%	52.4%	47.6%

Barton

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	44%	21%	15%	13%	7%	64%	36%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			47.1%	24.2%	15.9%	5.6%	7.2%	66.0%	34.0%

Bennelong

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	43%	30%	12%	9%	6%	59%	41%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			45.3%	35.1%	11.8%	2.3%	5.5%	59.3%	40.7%

Berowra

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				LIB	ALP	GRN	IND	ONP	OTH	LIB	ALP
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	33%	27%	12%	—	14%	14%	51%	49%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			41.7%	27.0%	11.9%	11.4%	4.1%	3.9%	51.6%	48.4%

Blaxland

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	IND	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	44%	17%	—	10%	11%	18%	69%	31%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			46.0%	19.6%	18.8%	7.9%	3.5%	4.2%	71.8%	28.1%

Bradfield

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				LIB	IND	ALP	GRN	ONP	OTH	IND	LIB
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	33%	—	24%	9%	10%	24%	48%	52%
Jun 2025	uComms [a] [3]	1,147	—	37.3%	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			38.0%	27.0%	20.3%	6.7%	1.6%	6.4%	50.01%	49.99%

Calare

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				NAT	IND	ALP	ONP	GRN	OTH	IND	NAT	ONP
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	20%	—	12%	23%	5%	40%	49%	—	51%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			29.7%	23.7%	10.5%	7.7%	3.5%	24.9%	56.8%	43.2%	—

Chifley

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	LIB
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	47%	16%	11%	14%	—	12%	67%	33%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			52.6%	19.7%	9.8%	6.0%	1.7%	10.2%	69.8%	30.2%

Cook

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2CP vote
				LIB	ALP	GRN	ONP	OTH	LIB	ALP
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	36%	30%	10%	16%	8%	56%	44%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			48.1%	31.5%	9.9%	4.4%	6.1%	57.2%	42.8%

Cowper

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				NAT	IND	ALP	ONP	GRN	OTH	NAT	IND
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	26%	—	13%	22%	6%	33%	52%	48%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			37.9%	29.4%	11.8%	6.4%	4.2%	10.3%	52.5%	47.5%

Cunningham

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2CP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB	ONP
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	40%	18%	19%	17%	6%	62%	—	38%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			44.7%	23.2%	20.4%	7.6%	4.1%	67.5%	32.5%	—

Dobell

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2CP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB	ONP
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	38%	21%	10%	20%	11%	55%	—	45%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			42.8%	27.8%	10.3%	8.7%	10.4%	59.4%	40.6%	—

Eden-Monaro

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	LIB
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	38%	25%	11%	18%	—	8%	55%	45%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			43.0%	31.9%	10.0%	7.0%	3.9%	4.2%	57.2%	42.8%

Farrer

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				LIB	IND	ALP	ONP	GRN	OTH	LIB	IND	ONP
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	30%	—	16%	22%	7%	25%	52%	—	48%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			43.4%	20.0%	15.1%	6.6%	4.9%	10.0%	56.2%	43.2%	—

Fowler

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				ALP	IND	LIB	GRN	ONP	OTH	IND	ALP	LIB
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	34%	—	11%	8%	13%	34%	53%	47%	—
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			37.5%	33.5%	12.3%	6.8%	4.1%	5.8%	52.7%	47.3%	—

Gilmore

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	IND	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	35%	26%	—	9%	17%	13%	54%	46%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			38.1%	34.5%	7.5%	7.2%	5.0%	7.7%	55.1%	44.9%

Grayndler

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				ALP	GRN	LIB	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	GRN
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	50%	23%	14%	8%	—	5%	66%	34%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			53.5%	25.1%	14.3%	3.2%	2.3%	1.6%	66.9%	33.1%

Greenway

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	LIB
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	46%	22%	12%	12%	—	8%	62%	38%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			50.4%	27.5%	10.7%	4.6%	2.6%	4.2%	63.8%	36.2%

Hughes

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	36%	28%	12%	15%	9%	53%	47%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			39.0%	36.5%	11.4%	5.3%	7.8%	53.1%	46.9%

Hume

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				LIB	ALP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	LIB	ALP
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	32%	25%	10%	21%	—	12%	56%	44%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			43.9%	27.2%	8.5%	8.0%	4.5%	7.9%	58.1%	41.9%

Hunter

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2CP vote
				ALP	NAT	ONP	GRN	OTH	ALP	ONP
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	36%	13%	30%	8%	13%	50%	50%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			43.5%	18.2%	16.1%	7.4%	14.8%	59.0%	41.0%

Kingsford Smith

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	LIB
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	47%	22%	14%	13%	—	4%	66%	34%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			50.8%	26.1%	13.6%	5.9%	3.6%	—	67.2%	32.8%

Lindsay

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				LIB	ALP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	LIB	ALP
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	29%	30%	10%	19%	—	12%	51%	49%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			39.7%	31.1%	9.6%	6.9%	1.1%	10.6%	52.8%	47.2%

Lyne

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				NAT	ALP	IND	ONP	GRN	OTH	NAT	ALP	ONP
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	25%	19%	—	25%	7%	24%	48%	—	52%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			36.2%	19.8%	15.5%	8.4%	6.4%	13.7%	59.8%	40.2%	—

Macarthur

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2CP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB	ONP
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	43%	18%	13%	17%	9%	61%	—	39%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			48.2%	23.1%	12.8%	7.8%	8.1%	65.6%	34.4%	—

Mackellar

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				IND	LIB	ALP	GRN	ONP	OTH	IND	LIB
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	—	30%	16%	8%	13%	33%	56%	44%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			38.0%	35.5%	12.1%	6.1%	2.5%	5.8%	55.7%	44.3%

Macquarie

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	38%	24%	12%	20%	6%	56%	44%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			42.6%	31.6%	12.5%	8.7%	4.6%	57.7%	42.3%

McMahon

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				ALP	LIB	IND	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB	ONP
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	40%	20%	—	10%	20%	10%	53%	—	43%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			45.5%	26.8%	9.8%	9.1%	8.8%	—	59.0%	41.0%	—

Mitchell

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				LIB	ALP	GRN	ONP	OTH	LIB	ALP
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	36%	32%	13%	14%	5%	53%	47%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			46.3%	33.2%	13.7%	4.3%	2.5%	53.8%	46.2%

New England

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				NAT	ALP	ONP	GRN	IND	OTH	NAT	ALP	ONP
27 Nov – 8 Dec 2025	Barnaby Joyce resigns from the National Party and joins One Nation
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	35%	20%	27%	9%	—	9%	55%	—	45%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			52.2%	20.3%	10.0%	7.9%	3.7%	5.9%	67.1%	32.9%	—

Newcastle

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				ALP	GRN	LIB	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	GRN	LIB
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	42%	20%	16%	13%	—	9%	66%	34%	—
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			45.3%	22.2%	19.1%	5.4%	0.8%	7.2%	65.8%	34.2%	—

Page

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				NAT	ALP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	NAT	ALP
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	32%	22%	14%	20%	—	12%	59%	41%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			44.7%	22.0%	15.1%	5.7%	1.3%	11.2%	59.3%	40.7%

Parkes

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				NAT	ALP	ONP	GRN	IND	OTH	NAT	ALP	ONP
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	25%	18%	32%	7%	—	18%	46%	—	54%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			39.9%	19.7%	13.6%	6.1%	2.5%	18.2%	63.0%	37.0%	—

Parramatta

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	LIB
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	45%	26%	13%	9%	—	7%	62%	38%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			47.8%	30.7%	12.1%	2.7%	2.6%	4.1%	62.5%	37.5%

Paterson

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	IND	ONP	GRN	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			37.1%	27.2%	12.1%	7.6%	7.6%	7.4%	56.9%	43.1%

Reid

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	IND	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			48.6%	31.7%	11.5%	3.1%	2.3%	2.8%	62.0%	38.0%

Richmond

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				ALP	GRN	NAT	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	NAT	GRN
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			30.4%	26.5%	24.6%	5.4%	2.6%	7.3%	60.0%	40.0%	—

Riverina

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				NAT	ALP	IND	ONP	GRN	OTH	NAT	ALP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			40.3%	18.4%	16.6%	9.9%	4.5%	10.3%	62.6%	37.4%

Robertson

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			44.8%	30.4%	9.0%	6.9%	3.3%	6.6%	59.4%	40.6%

Shortland

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			44.6%	26.2%	11.3%	9.1%	4.5%	3.3%	61.5%	38.5%

Sydney

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				ALP	GRN	LIB	ONP	OTH	ALP	GRN
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			55.2%	21.6%	17.6%	3.4%	2.2%	70.9%	29.1%

Warringah

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				IND	LIB	ALP	GRN	ONP	OTH	IND	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			39.7%	31.7%	14.6%	8.8%	1.7%	3.5%	61.2%	38.8%

Watson

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				ALP	IND	LIB	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			48.0%	16.1%	15.2%	8.9%	3.2%	8.6%	66.5%	43.5%

Wentworth

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				IND	LIB	ALP	GRN	ONP	OTH	IND	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			36.5%	36.3%	13.4%	10.2%	2.4%	1.2%	58.3%	41.7%

Werriwa

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			40.8%	30.8%	11.1%	4.0%	2.6%	9.6%	56.8%	43.2%

Whitlam

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	IND	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			38.6%	28.3%	12.4%	9.7%	7.7%	3.3%	56.2%	43.8%

Northern Territory

Lingiari

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				ALP	CLP	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	CLP
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	39%	23%	12%	20%	6%	56%	44%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			44.6%	31.0%	10.2%	9.1%	5.1%	58.1%	41.9%

Solomon

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				CLP	ALP	IND	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	CLP
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	27%	31%	—	12%	17%	13%	51%	49%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			36.0%	32.8%	13.6%	10.3%	6.7%	0.6%	51.3%	48.7%

Queensland

Blair

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				ALP	LNP	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LNP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			36.6%	27.2%	10.3%	9.7%	15.2%	55.7%	44.3%

Bonner

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				ALP	LNP	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LNP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			39.5%	35.5%	12.4%	3.8%	8.8%	55.0%	45.0%

Bowman

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				LNP	ALP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	LNP	ALP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			39.6%	31.7%	11.8%	7.1%	3.1%	6.7%	52.4%	47.6%

Brisbane

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				LNP	ALP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	LNP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			34.3%	32.1%	25.9%	2.5%	—	5.2%	59.0%	41.0%

Capricornia

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				LNP	ALP	ONP	GRN	OTH	LNP	ALP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			36.6%	31.9%	15.5%	6.2%	9.8%	55.8%	44.2%

Dawson

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				LNP	ALP	ONP	GRN	OTH	LNP	ALP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			41.7%	26.2%	10.4%	7.0%	14.7%	61.8%	38.2%

Dickson

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				LNP	ALP	IND	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LNP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			34.7%	33.6%	12.2%	7.6%	4.3%	7.7%	56.0%	44.0%

Fadden

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				LNP	ALP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	LNP	ALP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			41.0%	27.4%	9.3%	8.0%	2.8%	11.5%	56.9%	43.1%

Fairfax

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				LNP	ALP	IND	GRN	ONP	OTH	LNP	ALP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			37.9%	24.9%	13.4%	10.2%	7.4%	6.2%	53.2%	46.8%

Fisher

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				LNP	ALP	IND	GRN	ONP	OTH	LNP	ALP	IND
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			37.2%	22.3%	16.3%	9.6%	6.1%	8.5%	56.0%	44.0%	—

Flynn

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				LNP	ALP	ONP	GRN	IND	OTH	LNP	ALP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			37.4%	25.1%	14.2%	5.7%	5.0%	12.6%	60.2%	39.8%

Forde

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				ALP	LNP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	LNP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			34.2%	30.7%	11.4%	10.3%	3.0%	10.4%	51.8%	48.2%

Griffith

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				ALP	GRN	LNP	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	GRN	LNP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			34.5%	31.6%	26.6%	2.5%	—	4.8%	60.6%	39.4%	—

Groom

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				LNP	IND	ALP	ONP	GRN	OTH	LNP	IND	ALP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			41.0%	17.1%	16.6%	9.6%	5.6%	10.1%	55.7%	44.3%	—

Herbert

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				LNP	ALP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	LNP	ALP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			48.7%	23.0%	9.4%	5.2%	—	13.7%	63.4%	46.6%

Hinkler

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				LNP	ALP	ONP	GRN	IND	OTH	LNP	ALP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			38.0%	31.2%	13.3%	7.3%	2.9%	7.3%	56.3%	43.7%

Kennedy

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				KAP	LNP	ALP	GRN	IND	OTH	KAP	LNP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			40.4%	23.8%	16.4%	5.9%	1.7%	7.8%	65.8%	34.2%

Leichhardt

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				ALP	LNP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	LNP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			36.5%	27.3%	9.3%	8.0%	1.8%	14.8%	56.0%	44.0%

Lilley

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				ALP	LNP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	LNP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			46.1%	27.7%	16.4%	4.2%	—	5.6%	64.5%	35.5%

Longman

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				LNP	ALP	ONP	GRN	OTH	LNP	ALP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			36.1%	35.5%	9.9%	9.8%	8.7%	50.1%	49.9%

Maranoa

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				LNP	ONP	ALP	GRN	IND	OTH	LNP	ONP	ALP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			53.2%	12.3%	16.0%	5.2%	—	13.3%	70.1%	29.9%	—

McPherson

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				LNP	ALP	IND	GRN	ONP	OTH	LNP	ALP	IND
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			35.9%	23.4%	13.7%	8.4%	4.4%	14.2%	54.4%	45.6%	—

Moncrieff

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				LNP	ALP	GRN	IND	ONP	OTH	LNP	ALP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			41.9%	24.5%	9.5%	9.0%	5.9%	9.2%	58.8%	41.2%

Moreton

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				ALP	LNP	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LNP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			42.3%	25.7%	21.7%	2.8%	7.5%	66.1%	43.9%

Oxley

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				ALP	LNP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	LNP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			52.8%	21.1%	12.4%	5.5%	1.4%	5.8%	69.2%	30.8%

Petrie

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				LNP	ALP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	LNP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			37.9%	36.4%	11.8%	6.7%	—	7.2%	51.2%	48.8%

Rankin

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				ALP	LNP	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LNP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			49.4%	19.8%	10.9%	6.6%	9.7%	65.6%	34.4%

Ryan

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				LNP	GRN	ALP	ONP	IND	OTH	GRN	LNP	ALP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			34.6%	29.0%	28.2%	2.3%	—	5.9%	53.3%	46.7%	—

Wide Bay

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				LNP	ALP	ONP	GRN	IND	OTH	LNP	ALP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			39.1%	26.0%	12.0%	8.6%	4.9%	5.1%	57.6%	42.4%

Wright

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				LNP	ALP	ONP	GRN	IND	OTH	LNP	ALP	ONP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			34.1%	25.4%	16.3%	9.5%	—	14.7%	58.0%	41.0%	—

South Australia

Adelaide

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	44%	19%	20%	11%	6%	69%	31%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			46.5%	24.2%	19.0%	4.0%	6.3%	69.1%	30.9%

Barker

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote							2CP vote
				LIB	ALP	ONP	GRN	IND	NAT	OTH	LIB	ALP	ONP
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	32%	22%	25%	10%	—	—	11%	55%	—	45%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			48.3%	22.5%	8.2%	8.2%	5.8%	1.7%	5.3%	63.0%	37.0%	—

Boothby

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	41%	25%	17%	11%	6%	62%	38%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			42.6%	32.5%	17.1%	3.0%	4.8%	61.1%	38.9%

Grey

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				LIB	ALP	IND	ONP	GRN	OTH	LIB	ALP	ONP
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	24%	21%	—	27%	8%	20%	—	40%	60%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			34.9%	22.5%	17.5%	10.0%	5.9%	9.2%	54.6%	45.4%	—

Hindmarsh

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	LIB
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	45%	18%	15%	13%	—	9%	66%	34%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			48.1%	23.1%	13.6%	5.0%	1.6%	8.6%	66.3%	33.7%

Kingston

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB	ONP
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	47%	14%	14%	15%	10%	66%	—	34%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			53.0%	18.6%	13.5%	6.2%	8.7%	70.7%	20.3%	—

Makin

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB	ONP
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	43%	16%	13%	16%	12%	62%	—	38%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			47.8%	22.5%	12.4%	6.7%	10.6%	64.7%	35.3%	—

Mayo

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				OTH	LIB	ALP	GRN	ONP	IND	CA	LIB	ALP
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	31%	17%	22%	13%	17%	—	62%	—	38%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			35.4%	23.6%	21.4%	13.6%	6.0%	—	64.9%	35.1%	—

Spence

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	LIB	ONP
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	39%	13%	15%	20%	—	13%	60%	—	40%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			44.3%	18.7%	14.5%	9.5%	2.5%	10.5%	65.3%	34.7%	—

Sturt

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	LIB
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	36%	27%	16%	11%	—	10%	58%	42%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			35.3%	34.3%	15.6%	3.4%	7.2%	4.2%	56.6%	43.4%

Tasmania

Bass

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	LIB
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	37%	23%	14%	18%	—	8%	59%	41%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			39.6%	31.4%	12.9%	6.5%	5.4%	4.2%	58.0%	42.0%

Braddon

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	IND	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	37%	22%	10%	—	20%	11%	59%	41%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			39.5%	31.7%	8.4%	8.3%	7.6%	4.5%	57.2%	42.8%

Clark

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				IND	ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	OTH	IND	ALP
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	—	25%	12%	14%	14%	35%	62%	38%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			48.9%	20.0%	13.7%	13.2%	4.2%	—	70.4%	29.6%

Franklin

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				ALP	IND	LIB	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	IND
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	40%	—	15%	12%	14%	19%	60%	40%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			39.0%	26.7%	18.8%	10.5%	5.0%	—	57.8%	42.2%

Lyons

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	LIB	ONP
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	40%	19%	12%	18%	—	11%	58%	—	42%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			43.1%	26.2%	10.9%	6.7%	3.2%	5.2%	61.6%	38.4%	—

Victoria

Aston

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				LIB	ALP	GRN	IND	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			37.7%	37.3%	11.5%	4.1%	3.4%	6.0%	53.4%	46.6%

Ballarat

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			42.4%	28.6%	14.3%	7.7%	2.8%	4.2%	60.7%	39.3%

Bendigo

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote							2PP vote
				ALP	NAT	LIB	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	NAT
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP) [2]	6,928	±5%	32%	29%		13%	16%	—	10%	53%	47%
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			33.6%	29.7%	10.5%	11.3%	4.9%	1.1%	8.9%	51.4%	48.6%

Bruce

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			45.3%	23.0%	12.1%	8.2%	12.4%	64.6%	35.4%

Calwell

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	IND
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			30.5%	15.7%	8.3%	3.8%	35.9%	5.8%	55.1%	44.9%

Casey

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				LIB	ALP	GRN	IND	ONP	OTH	LIB	ALP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			40.9%	24.3%	10.9%	10.5%	5.1%	8.3%	52.9%	47.1%

Chisholm

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	IND	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			38.7%	37.3%	12.5%	5.9%	1.9%	3.7%	55.7%	44.3%

Cooper

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				ALP	GRN	LIB	ONP	OTH	ALP	GRN
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			42.0%	25.2%	15.1%	5.3%	12.4%	59.7%	40.3%

Corangamite

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	IND	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			37.3%	34.1%	14.4%	4.4%	3.2%	6.6%	58.0%	42.0%

Corio

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			42.8%	24.9%	15.9%	9.9%	3.6%	2.9%	63.2%	36.8%

Deakin

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				LIB	ALP	GRN	IND	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			38.7%	34.8%	11.9%	7.2%	2.6%	4.8%	52.8%	47.2%

Dunkley

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			38.3%	32.3%	11.6%	6.9%	2.9%	8.0%	57.1%	42.9%

Flinders

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				LIB	ALP	IND	GRN	ONP	OTH	LIB	IND	ALP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			41.2%	22.3%	22.1%	6.4%	5.3%	2.7%	52.3%	47.7%	—

Fraser

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				ALP	GRN	LIB	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			42.6%	25.3%	16.9%	4.8%	—	10.4%	59.2%	40.8%

Gellibrand

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			46.6%	26.2%	17.0%	6.0%	4.2%	65.1%	44.9%

Gippsland

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				NAT	ALP	ONP	GRN	OTH	NAT	ALP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			52.5%	21.3%	14.4%	8.5%	3.3%	69.4%	30.6%

Goldstein

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				LIB	IND	ALP	GRN	ONP	OTH	LIB	IND
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			43.4%	30.7%	13.7%	7.2%	1.8%	3.2%	50.1%	49.9%

Gorton

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			43.0%	29.2%	10.8%	6.3%	10.7%	60.3%	39.7%

Hawke

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			39.1%	30.2%	9.8%	9.7%	11.2%	57.6%	42.4%

Holt

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			45.0%	25.1%	11.2%	8.7%	10.0%	64.0%	36.0%

Hotham

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			48.8%	25.7%	14.9%	4.7%	5.9%	66.9%	33.1%

Indi

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote							2CP vote
				IND	LIB	ALP	ONP	NAT	GRN	OTH	IND	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			43.7%	30.7%	8.4%	7.2%	—	3.6%	6.4%	58.6%	41.4%

Isaacs

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			49.4%	28.3%	14.1%	4.6%	3.6%	64.3%	35.7%

Jagajaga

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	IND	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			42.6%	29.4%	15.6%	6.0%	3.9%	2.5%	62.9%	37.1%

Kooyong

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				LIB	IND	ALP	GRN	ONP	OTH	IND	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			43.1%	33.9%	11.9%	7.8%	1.0%	2.3%	50.7%	49.3%

La Trobe

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				LIB	ALP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	LIB	ALP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			39.1%	32.1%	12.9%	7.7%	—	7.2%	52.1%	47.9%

Lalor

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			43.6%	26.1%	15.3%	7.0%	2.1%	5.9%	63.2%	36.8%

Macnamara

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			36.1%	32.5%	25.5%	2.8%	1.8%	1.3%	61.8%	38.2%

Mallee

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				NAT	ALP	ONP	GRN	OTH	NAT	ALP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			49.7%	19.1%	11.0%	9.1%	11.1%	69.0%	31.0%

Maribyrnong

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			41.4%	30.5%	21.2%	6.9%	—	62.6%	37.4%

McEwen

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			37.3%	32.5%	11.1%	6.6%	12.5%	54.8%	45.2%

Melbourne

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				GRN	ALP	LIB	IND	ONP	OTH	ALP	GRN
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			39.5%	31.3%	19.8%	4.9%	2.5%	2.0%	53.0%	47.0%

Menzies

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				LIB	ALP	GRN	IND	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			40.6%	34.7%	11.0%	6.4%	2.0%	5.3%	51.1%	48.9%

Monash

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				LIB	IND	ALP	ONP	GRN	OTH	LIB	ALP	IND
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			31.8%	27.3%	20.3%	8.0%	4.9%	7.7%	54.1%	45.9%	—

Nicholls

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				NAT	ALP	ONP	GRN	OTH	NAT	ALP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			46.3%	24.2%	11.5%	7.8%	10.2%	64.4%	35.6%

Scullin

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			44.9%	20.5%	9.4%	6.6%	18.6%	64.3%	35.7%

Wannon

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				LIB	IND	ALP	ONP	GRN	OTH	LIB	IND
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			43.6%	31.4%	10.6%	4.2%	3.2%	7.0%	53.3%	46.7%

Wills

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				ALP	GRN	LIB	ONP	OTH	ALP	GRN
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			35.6%	35.4%	12.9%	3.5%	12.6%	51.4%	48.6%

Western Australia

Brand

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			45.9%	19.7%	13.2%	12.7%	8.5%	66.9%	33.1%

Bullwinkel

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote							2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	NAT	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			32.0%	24.3%	15.8%	11.2%	8.6%	—	8.1%	50.5%	48.5%

Burt

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			46.7%	19.1%	11.5%	9.9%	2.2%	10.6%	65.7%	34.3%

Canning

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				LIB	ALP	ONP	GRN	IND	OTH	LIB	ALP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			42.5%	29.9%	11.4%	8.9%	—	7.3%	56.6%	43.4%

Cowan

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			46.6%	24.2%	10.8%	5.1%	3.5%	9.8%	63.6%	36.4%

Curtin

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				LIB	IND	ALP	GRN	ONP	OTH	IND	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			40.3%	32.2%	14.8%	7.8%	2.6%	2.3%	53.3%	46.7%

Durack

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote							2PP vote
				LIB	ALP	NAT	ONP	GRN	IND	OTH	LIB	ALP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			32.9%	23.4%	13.6%	10.1%	8.2%	—	11.8%	60.2%	39.85

Forrest

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				LIB	ALP	IND	ONP	GRN	OTH	LIB	ALP	IND
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			31.2%	22.5%	18.3%	8.7%	7.9%	11.4%	52.2%	47.8%	—

Fremantle

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				ALP	IND	LIB	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	IND	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			38.6%	23.0%	18.9%	11.6%	6.1%	1.8%	50.7%	49.3%	—

Hasluck

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			48.3%	22.1%	12.5%	7.4%	9.7%	66.0%	34.0%

Moore

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				LIB	ALP	IND	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			31.5%	32.5%	16.3%	11.1%	4.5%	4.1%	52.9%	47.1%

O'Connor

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				LIB	ALP	ONP	GRN	IND	OTH	LIB	ALP
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			34.4%	21.1%	11.0%	10.0%	—	23.5%	63.3%	36.7%

Pearce

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			40.1%	28.5%	11.9%	9.2%	10.3%	56.4%	43.6%

Perth

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			43.1%	26.1%	24.5%	6.3%	—	66.5%	33.5%

Swan

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			42.6%	26.9%	17.5%	5.2%	7.8%	64.0%	36.0%

Tangney

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
3 May 2025	2025 federal election			42.5%	34.2%	13.0%	4.1%	6.2%	57.0%	43.0%

See also

• Opinion polling for the next Australian federal election

Notes

1. Commissioned by Climate 200.

References

1. English, Patrick (13 February 2025). "MRP Methodology". YouGov Australia. Archived from the original on 18 April 2025. Retrieved 19 April 2025.
2. "Australian Federal Voting Intention – October/November 2025" (PDF). DemosAU. 2 December 2025. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2 December 2025. Retrieved 2 December 2025.
3. Smith, Alexandra (1 July 2025). "NSW Liberals push Greiner to fund Bradfield court challenge after 26-vote loss". Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 22 July 2025. Retrieved 22 July 2025.