Major issues
Economic concerns
With rising inflation and unemployment, particularly in urban areas caused dissatisfaction among voters. In rural regions, issues such as inadequate crop prices and agricultural distress were prominent. According to data from the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) for April-June 2024, the unemployment rate among youth aged 15 to 29 years in urban areas stood at 16.8%. [17] [18]
Women's welfare initiatives
The BJP-led Maha Yuti's 'Ladki Bahin' scheme proposed a direct cash transfer of ₹1,500 to women, which was later increased to ₹2,100 in response to the Congress-led MVA's pledge of ₹3,000 per woman. Both alliances also announced similar benefits for youth, senior citizens, and farmers. These promises expected to significantly influence voter preferences, particularly in rural areas facing economic challenges. Additionally, infrastructure development proposals and the perception of which alliance could better attract industrial investments to Maharashtra emerged as key electoral issues. [19] [20]
Political Stability
Between 2019 and 2024, Maharashtra's political landscape was marked by significant instability, characterized by multiple leadership changes and shifting alliances. In 2019, the dissolution of the pre-election alliance between the BJP and Shiv Sena over power-sharing disagreements led to the formation of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), comprising Shiv Sena, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), and the Indian National Congress, with Uddhav Thackeray as Chief Minister. The MVA government faced internal challenges, including a rebellion in June 2022 by senior Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde, which resulted in the collapse of the MVA and Shinde assuming the Chief Minister role with BJP support. Further instability followed in July 2023 when NCP leader Ajit Pawar and a faction of MLAs joined the Shinde-led government, causing a split within the NCP. These successive upheavals resulted in three different administrations within five years, creating a climate of political uncertainty. [21] [22] [23]
Exit polls
| Date published | Polling agency | | | | Lead |
|---|
| Maha Yuti | Maha Vikas Aghadi | Others |
|---|
| 20 November 2024 | P-MARQ | 147-157 | 106-146 | 2-8 | 2-12 |
| People’s Pulse | 175-195 | 85-112 | 7-12 | 30-50 |
| Matrize | 150-170 | 110-130 | 8-10 | 5-25 |
| Lokshahi-Marathi Rudra | 148-162 | 105-120 | 18-23 | 3-17 |
| JVC | 150-167 | 107-125 | 13-14 | 5-22 |
| Today's Chanakya [25] | 164-186 | 89-111 | 8-18 | 19-41 |
| Dainik Bhaskar | 125-140 | 135-150 | 20-25 | Hung |
| Electoral Edge | 148 | 150 | 20 | 5 |
| Poll Diary | 122-186 | 69-121 | 10-27 | Hung |
| Axis My India [26] | 178-200 | 82-102 | 6-12 | 33-55 |
| CNX Exit Poll [27] | 160-179 | 100-119 | 6-12 | 15-34 |
According to a Lokniti post-poll survey, in the latest election, the Mahayuti garnered 30% of Maratha (including Kunbi) votes and 40% of OBC votes, creating a strong coalition. About 25% of Adivasi voters and 20% of Scheduled Caste (SC) voters supported the Mahayuti. The alliance expanded its base across social groups, while the MVA experienced a decline in support. SC voters displayed diverse voting patterns, with many Buddhists and former Mahars backing parties outside the two alliances. More fragmented voting trends were observed among SCs, Adivasis, and Muslims, as they did not align as strongly with the MVA. [28]
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