Latino vote

Last updated

The Latino vote or refers to the voting trends during elections in the United States by eligible voters of Latino background. This phrase is usually mentioned by the media as a way to label voters of this ethnicity, and to opine that this demographic group could potentially tilt the outcome of an election, and how candidates have developed messaging strategies to this ethnic group. [1] [2]

Contents

Voting demographics

Per the Pew Research Center, the top states with the highest percentage of eligible Latino voters in 2020 were: New Mexico (42.8%), California (30.5%), Texas (30.4%), Arizona (23.6%), Florida (20.5%), Nevada (19.7%), Colorado (15.9%), New Jersey (15.3%), New York (14.8%), Connecticut (12.3%), Illinois (11.6%), and Rhode Island (11.3%). [3]

Low voting turnout

President Bill Clinton and his Latino appointees in 1998 President Clinton's Latino Appointees.png
President Bill Clinton and his Latino appointees in 1998

In 2006, the percentage of Latinos who participate in political activities varies, but rarely exceeds half of those eligible. [4] In general, Latinos participate in common civic activities, such as voting, at much lower rates than nearby non-Latino whites or blacks. Approximately 57.9 percent of U.S. citizen adult Latinos were registered to vote at the time of the 2004 election, and 47.2 percent turned out to vote. [5] The voter registration and turnout rates are approximately 10 percent lower than those of non-Latino blacks and 18 percent lower than those of non-Latino whites.

To explain low voter turnout among Latinos, researchers have analyzed voter participation demographics throughout many years. Per a 2002 study, researchers have found many explanations as towards why Latinos have a low voter turnout. There are explanations that account for physical barriers such as lack of transportation. As well as systemic barriers such as, harassment, discrimination, inadequate numbers of polling booths, inconvenient placements of polling booths, and biased administration of election laws may suppress Latino access to registering and voting. [6]

One of the biggest explanation for low Latino voter turn outs is associated with accurately measuring the Latino vote based on a general population that includes many non-citizens. The number of adult non-U.S. citizens rose from 1.9 million in 1976 to more than 8.4 million in 2000, a 350 percent increase. [5] Thus, the share of Latino nonparticipants are overwhelmingly non-U.S. citizens.

Another explanation for low levels of Latino voter turnout stems from the relatively young age of the Latino population. [7] For example, 40 percent of the California Latino population was under eighteen years of age in 1985.

Individuals with lower incomes vote at lower rates than people with higher incomes. In terms of income, the general argument is that individuals with higher socioeconomic status have the civic skills, the participatory attitudes, and the time and money to facilitate participation. [8] Education is also positively related to participation and vote choice, as Latinos with a college degree and postgraduate training are more likely to vote. More than 30 percent of Latino adult citizens have less than a high school education, while 12 percent of non-Latino white adult citizens have less than a high school education. [5] Therefore, low participation may result from low levels of knowledge about the political process that should be garnered through formal education.

This does vary based on country of origin. A 2003 study discussed how female Mexican-Americans and those attaining higher levels of income were more likely to register, and in turn, participate in voting. [9] The same study concluded that education and marital status posed the primary barriers to Puerto Rican voter registration. [9] These sorts of variations in factors seem to be present across many Latino communities in the United States. Additionally, studies have shown that the presence of Latino/a candidates on the ballot tends to yield a higher voter turnout among these communities. [10] This is in part due to the strong association between cultural identification and partisanship. [10] The ever-growing presence of Latino/a voters in politics is representative of the group's growing presence across the United States, making up over 30% of the population in swing or politically significant states such as Texas, Arizona, or California. [10] It's also worth noting that large migrating populations, such as the increase of Cuban-Americans in Florida, have a strong impact for similar reasons. Community identification proves a strong factor in voter registration, particularly among working Latinas. [10] Puerto Ricans in Southern states have similar turnout rates, presumably for similar reasons; that said, there does exist quite a bit of variation in numbers across states, in part due to the aforementioned factors.

Among other minority communities in the US, turnout seems to be increased by the presence of a member of their race on the ballot, black voter turnout rose significantly with Obama's two presidential campaigns and then fell back again in 2016. [11]

Although turn out for Latinos is low, it has been noted that Latinos residing in communities with a large Latino population are more likely to turn out to vote. [7]

Latino vote influences

There is a significant amount of literature dedicated to analyzing what influences Latino vote choices. One strong determinant has been found to be religion, which is believed to play a role in defining the political attitudes and behaviors of Latino voters. Latinos have long been associated with Catholicism with respect to faith and religious identity [12] and with the Democratic Party with regard to political allegiance and identity. [13] Although most Latinos affiliate themselves with the Democratic Party, the Latino National Political Survey, has found a consistent finding that Latinos identify themselves ideologically as moderates and conservatives. Social conservatism usually originates from religion, which oftentimes predicts Latino's opposition to abortion, same-sex marriage, support for the death penalty, and support for traditional gender roles. Religion's ideological role is undeniable in its political influence in both parties. However, noting the shared collective identity that is often associated with a particular religion, it's worth noting that political beliefs are often a result of community values, rather than solely religious. Notably, in 2006 and 2008, the Democratic party held an advantage in Latino/a voter turnout and results. [10] During these election cycles, and still to a degree today, the Democratic party appeals to issues such as immigration and healthcare, while the Republican party tends to continue on social issues and religion-based appeal.

Although the Latina vote, in particular, is sometimes seen as a product of social movements in many media outlets, some scholars in the social sciences argue that it is a movement in and of itself born out of historical left-wing advocacy. [14] For example, LLEGÓ, the National Latina/o Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender Organization (1987–present) [14] remains a leader in Latina activism in the United States. Organizations such as LLEGÓ have had historical impact over the political ideologies of its members, and has greatly influenced political participation over the years within these often overlooked communities. Considering the aforementioned important role played by ethnic and religious identity, these organizations cultivate a sense of collective political pride. In turn, voting turnout is often seen to increase with regards to historical and current members of LLEGÓ and other groups.

Political ads have also been studied to determine how they influence Latino voting behavior. In a study conducted by Abrajano, it was concluded that different political ads influence Latino vote choices depending on how assimilated individuals are to American life. [15] For Spanish dominated Latinos, political ads that tapped into ethnic identity seemed to be the most influential. On the other hand, for assimilated Latinos, ethnic appeals did have some influence but exposure to more informative policy ads in English or Spanish had a greater impact on these voters' decision to vote. [15] During political movements in the 1960s and 1970s such as the women's liberation movement and the Chicano movement, Latina females began to unite around ideals similar to those embraced by feminist voter organizations including the Third World Women's Alliance and other Bay Area activist groups. [16] According to a study performed using the November 2000 CPS, education appeared to hold the greatest influence over Latina voter registration and choice, among income, employment, and homeowner status. [9] However, this study was conducted across the United States. Keeping this in mind, it is important to reconcile the issues important to singular communities with these overarching themes. For example, considering the growing Latino/a populations in Florida from Puerto Rico, factors of registration and choice will differ greatly between these groups and Latinos/as in other parts of the state.

Policies

In the United States, the Latino vote is typically associated with immigration issues such as immigration reform, immigration enforcement and amnesty for undocumented immigrants, usually with images of Mexican illegal immigrants crossing the border or being arrested by the border patrol, despite the fact that in many cases immigration could be an issue no more important than unemployment or the economy for many Latino American citizens. [17]

Data from both the 2002 and 1999 National Surveys on Latinos revealed that over 60% percent of Latinos favor a larger government with more government programs, even if this means higher taxes. [18] A 1992 study indicated that government programs that Latinos are more likely to advocate for are those that focus on issues such as crime control and drug prevention, child care services, environmental protection, science and technology, defense, and programs for refugees and immigrants [19]

According to the National Exit Poll, in 2012 60% of Latino voters identified the economy as the most important issue the country was facing. [20] Education is also a constant preoccupation among Latino voters. Latinos emphasize education, mentioning such issues as expanding the number of schools, reducing class sizes, and adding to the cultural sensitivity of teachers and curricula. [20] Other educational concerns expressed by Latinos include ensuring that children are able to advance to the next educational level. Following the economy and education, health care (18%), the federal budget deficit (11%) and foreign policy (6%), were other concerns among the Latino population. [20]

2020 election

Latino voters were a crucial part of President Joe Biden's electoral victory in the 2020 Presidential election. He won 65% of the Latino vote to Donald Trump's 32%, [21] according to Edison Research exit polls. In the swing states of Arizona and Nevada, Latino voters made the difference for Joe Biden. Many Latino voters in Nevada are members of the Culinary Union Local 226 and supported Biden based on Right-to-work standards. [22]

In heavily urbanized northeastern states and in California, Biden secured overwhelming majorities among Latino voters, as has long been the case for Democratic presidential candidates. [23]

However, Latino voters proved that they were not monolithic. [24] In Florida, Trump earned strong Latino support among Cuban and South American communities in Miami-Dade County, and earned 46% of the overall Latino vote in Florida, much higher than his 35% showing in 2016. This shift occurred due to anti-Socialist messaging by Trump's campaign. [25] [26] Still, it’s important to note that in every county outside of Miami-Dade County Latinos opted to vote for Biden by a 2 to 1 margin, and in the end he won the majority of Florida’s Latino electorate. [27]

Additionally, in heavily-Latino South Texas, Biden lost ground compared to Hillary Clinton in 2016, especially in rural counties, however he still carried the Latino vote in the Rio Grande Valley by double digits and two-thirds statewide. [28] [29]

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Republican Party (United States)</span> American political party

The Republican Party, also known as the GOP, is one of the two major contemporary political parties in the United States. It emerged as the main political rival of the Democratic Party in the mid-1850s.

Theories of political behavior, as an aspect of political science, attempt to quantify and explain the influences that define a person's political views, ideology, and levels of political participation. Political behavior is the subset of human behavior that involves politics and power. Theorists who have had an influence on this field include Karl Deutsch and Theodor Adorno.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Voter turnout</span> Percentage of a countrys eligible voters who actually vote within elections

In political science, voter turnout is the participation rate of a given election. This is typically either the percentage of registered voters, eligible voters, or all voting-age people. According to Stanford University political scientists Adam Bonica and Michael McFaul, there is a consensus among political scientists that "democracies perform better when more people vote."

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Hispanic and Latino Americans</span> Demographic of Americans

Hispanic and Latino Americans are Americans of Spanish and/or Latin American ancestry. These demographics include all Americans who identify as Hispanic or Latino regardless of ancestry. As of 2020, the Census Bureau estimated that there were almost 65.3 million Hispanics and Latinos living in the United States and its territories.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Youth vote in the United States</span>

The youth vote in the United States is the cohort of 18–24 year-olds as a voting demographic, though some scholars define youth voting as voters under 30. Many policy areas specifically affect the youth of the United States, such as education issues and the juvenile justice system; however, young people also care about issues that affect the population as a whole, such as national debt and war.

Members of the Catholic Church have been active in the elections of the United States since the mid 19th century. The United States has never had religious parties. There has never been an American Catholic religious party, either local, state or national.

Hispanic and Latino American Muslims are Hispanic and Latino Americans who are of the Islamic faith. Hispanic and Latino Americans are an ethnolinguistic group of citizens of the United States with origins in Spain and Latin America. Islam is an Abrahamic, monotheistic religion teaching that there is only one God (Allah), and that Muhammad is a messenger of God. The primary scriptures of Islam are the Quran, claimed to be the verbatim word of God, and the teachings and normative examples of Muhammad. Muslims believe that Islam is the complete and universal version of a primordial faith that was revealed many times before through prophets including Adam, Abraham, Moses and Jesus, and the Quran in its Arabic to be the unaltered and final revelation of God. The Spaniards took the Roman Catholic faith to Latin America via imperialism and colonialism; Roman Catholicism continues to be the largest, but not the only, religious denomination among most Hispanics. In contrast, the Arabs took Islam to very few Latin American countries such as Mexico, El Salvador, Guatemala and Colombia via post-independence immigration.

Latino Americans have received a growing share of the national vote in the United States due to their increasing population. As of the 2020 U.S. Census, 62.1 million Latinos live in the United States, representing 18.9% of the total U.S. population. This is a 23% increase since 2010. This racial/ethnic group is the second largest after non-Hispanic whites in the U.S. In 2020, the states with the highest Hispanic or Latino populations were; Arizona, California, Florida, Illinois, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, and Texas. According to the Brookings Institution, Latinos will become the nations largest minority by 2045 and the deciding population in future elections. With the help of laws and court case wins, Latinos have been able to receive the help needed to participate in American Politics. According to data provided by The Collaborative Multiracial Post-Election Survey (CMPS), 72% of Latinos believe that it is very/somewhat important to get their voice heard by voting. They have traditionally been a key Democratic Party constituency, but more recently have begun to split between the Democratic and Republican Party. Since the Latino population is large and diverse, a lot of political differences exist between gender, national origin, and generational groups.

In political science, political apathy is a lack of interest or apathy towards politics. This includes voter apathy, information apathy and lack of interest in elections, political events, public meetings, and voting.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Voter turnout in United States presidential elections</span> Aspect of election history

The historical trends in voter turnout in the United States presidential elections have been determined by the gradual expansion of voting rights from the initial restriction to white male property owners aged 21 or older in the early years of the country's independence to all citizens aged 18 or older in the mid-20th century. Voter turnout in United States presidential elections has historically been higher than the turnout for midterm elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Voter identification laws in the United States</span>

Voter ID laws in the United States are laws that require a person to provide some form of official identification before they are permitted to register to vote, receive a ballot for an election, or to actually vote in elections in the United States.

Latino Americans make up an increasing share of the United States (U.S.) electorate. A record 29 million Latinos were eligible to vote in the 2018 midterm elections, accounting for 12.8% of all eligible voters, a new high. They made up an estimated 11% of all voters nationwide on Election Day, nearly matching their share of the U.S. eligible voter population.

Latinx is a neologism in American English which is used to refer to people of Latin American cultural or ethnic identity in the United States. The gender-neutral ⟨-x⟩ suffix replaces the ⟨-o/-a⟩ ending of Latino and Latina that are typical of grammatical gender in Spanish. Its plural is Latinxs. Words used for similar purposes include Latin@, Latine, and the simple Latin. Related gender-neutral neologisms include Xicanx or Chicanx.

Voter impersonation, also sometimes called in-person voter fraud, is a form of electoral fraud in which a person who is eligible to vote in an election votes more than once, or a person who is not eligible to vote does so by voting under the name of an eligible voter. In the United States, voter ID laws have been enacted in a number of states by Republican legislatures and governors since 2010 with the purported aim of preventing voter impersonation. Existing research and evidence shows that voter impersonation is extremely rare. Between 2000 and 2014, there were only 31 documented instances of voter impersonation. There is no evidence that it has changed the result of any election. In April 2020, a voter fraud study covering 20 years by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found the level of mail-in ballot fraud "exceedingly rare" since it occurs only in "0.00006 percent" of individual votes nationally, and, in one state, "0.000004 percent — about five times less likely than getting hit by lightning in the United States."

Latinos '08 is a PBS documentary that examines the political influence of Latinos through the lens of the 2008 presidential election. Since 2008, shifting demographics in the United States are reshaping elections, changing the political landscape, and impacting policy at the federal, state, and local levels. Latinos and other racial/ethnic groups are challenging the ways in which politicians, academics and other cultural influencers consider and discuss race by upending this country's black/white racial binary paradigm.

Matthew Alejandro Barreto is a political scientist. and co-founder of the national polling and research firm Barreto Segura Partners Research.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 United States presidential election in Florida</span> Election in Florida

The 2020 United States presidential election in Florida was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election, in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated. Florida voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent president Donald Trump, and his running mate, Vice President Mike Pence, against Democratic Party nominee, former vice president Joe Biden, and his running mate, United States senator Kamala Harris, of California. Florida had 29 electoral votes in the Electoral College.

Social media was used extensively in the 2020 United States presidential election. Both incumbent president Donald Trump and Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden's campaigns employed digital-first advertising strategies, prioritizing digital advertising over print advertising in the wake of the pandemic. Trump had previously utilized his Twitter account to reach his voters and make announcements, both during and after the 2016 election. The Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden also made use of social media networks to express his views and opinions on important events such as the Trump administration's response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the protests following the murder of George Floyd, and the controversial appointment of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Political views of Generation Z</span> Politics of those born between the mid-to-late 1990s and early 2010s

Generation Z, colloquially also known as zoomers, is the demographic cohort succeeding Millennials and preceding Generation Alpha. Researchers and popular media use the mid-to-late 1990s as starting birth years and the early 2010s as ending birth years.

The Democratic Party of the United States is composed of various demographic groups.

References

  1. "WCVI - Latino Voter Statistics". wcvi.org.
  2. "theamericano.com". theamericano.com.
  3. "Mapping the 2020 Latino electorate". Pew Research Center.
  4. Charles S. Bullock, and M. V. Hood, "A Mile‐Wide Gap: The Evolution of Hispanic Political Emergence in the Deep South." Social Science Quarterly 87.5 (2006): 1117-1135. online [ dead link ]
  5. 1 2 3 DeSipio, Louis (2006). Latino Civic and Political Participation. In: National Research Council (US) Panel on Hispanics in the United States. National Academies Press. ISBN   978-0-309-10044-1.
  6. Rosenstone, Steven; Hansen, John Mark (2002). Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy in America. Longman. ISBN   978-0321121868.
  7. 1 2 Pantoja, Adrian; Woods, Nathan (1999). "Turning out the Latino Vote in Los Angeles County:, Did Interest Group Efforts Matter?". American Review of Politics. 20: 141–162.
  8. Jackson, Robert (2003). "Differential Influences on Latino Electoral Participation". Political Behavior. 25 (4): 339–366. doi:10.1023/b:pobe.0000004062.12215.63. S2CID   144888683.
  9. 1 2 3 Jackson, Robert (2003). "Differential Influences on Latino Electoral Participation". Political Behavior. 25 (4): 339–366. doi:10.1023/b:pobe.0000004062.12215.63. S2CID   144888683.
  10. 1 2 3 4 5 Jackson, M. (2011). Priming the Sleeping Giant: The Dynamics of Latino Political Identity and Vote Choice. Political Psychology, 32(4), 691-716. Retrieved February 18, 2021, from JSTOR   41262886
  11. "Black voter turnout fell in 2016 US election". Pew Research Center. Retrieved 2021-02-03.
  12. Maldonado, David (1999). Protestantes/Protestants : Hispanic Christianity within mainline traditions. Abingdon Press. pp.  9–18. ISBN   978-0687055098.
  13. Kelly, Nathan; Morgan, Jana (2005). "Religion and Latino partisanship in the United States". Political Research Quarterly. 58 (1): 87–95. doi:10.2307/3595598. JSTOR   3595598.
  14. 1 2 Ontiveros, R. J. (2017). Social movements. In D. R. Vargas, L. La Fountain-Stokes, & N. R. Mirabal, Keywords for latina/o studies. New York University Press. Credo Reference: https://search.credoreference.com/content/entry/nyupresskls/social_movements/0
  15. 1 2 Arbajano, Marisa (2010). Campaigning to the New American Electorate Advertising to Latino Voters. Stanford University Press. p. 216. ISBN   9780804774703.
  16. Cotera, M. E. (2017). Feminisms. In D. R. Vargas, L. La Fountain-Stokes, & N. R. Mirabal, Keywords for latina/o studies. New York University Press. Credo Reference: https://search.credoreference.com/content/entry/nyupresskls/feminisms/0
  17. Gutierrez, Jessica Marie (March 12, 2012). "IS RESPECT A MAJOR ISSUE FOR LATINOS: ELECTION 2012 COVERAGE ON THE HISPANIC VOTE".
  18. Coffin, Malcolm (2003). "The Latino Vote: Shaping Americas Electoral Future". The Political Quarterly. 74 (2): 214–222. doi:10.1111/1467-923x.00531.
  19. De La Garza, Rodolfo; DeSipio, Louis; Garcia, Chris; Garcia, John; Falcon, Angelo (1992). Latino Voices: Mexican, Puerto Rican, And Cuban Perspectives On American Politics . ISBN   978-0813387246.
  20. 1 2 3 "Latino Voters in the 2012 Election". Pew Research Center. 7 November 2012.
  21. "National Results 2020 President exit polls". www.cnn.com. Retrieved 2021-08-08.
  22. "Culinary Union delivered Nevada for Biden/Harris, drove unprecedented turnout with the largest political team statewide". Culinary Union Local 226. 7 November 2020. Retrieved 2021-08-08.
  23. (PDF) https://www.albany.edu/news/LatinoPoliticalBarometerExecutiveSummary.pdf.{{cite web}}: Missing or empty |title= (help)
  24. "The Complexities of the 2020 'Latino Vote' Were Overlooked, Again". Time. Retrieved 2021-08-08.
  25. "What's behind Trump's gain in Cuban American support?". NBC News. 2 October 2020. Retrieved 2021-08-08.
  26. Ariza, Andrew Boryga, Yvonne H. Valdez, Mario (4 November 2020). "How Trump won big with Latinos in Florida — and then some". sun-sentinel.com. Retrieved 2021-08-08.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  27. "Latino voters were decisive in 2020 presidential election". UCLA. Retrieved 2023-03-15.
  28. Dobbins, James; Fernandez, Manny (2020-11-07). "In Texas, an Emerging Problem for Democrats on the Border". The New York Times. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved 2021-08-08.
  29. Gamboa, Suzanne (22 February 2021). "Why Texas Democrats lost the 2020 voter turnout battle, even among Latinos". www.nbcnews.com. Retrieved 2023-03-15.

Further reading