Hispanic and Latino conservatism in the United States
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Movement within conservatism
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Hispanic and Latino Americans make up an increasing share of the United States (U.S.) electorate. A significant proportion of Hispanic and Latino Americans vote for the Republican Party, and increasing numbers have been elected to office as Republicans.
Opinion pieces that have appeared in magazines and websites such as FiveThirtyEight and The Atlantic have frequently argued that there is no such thing as a "Latino vote", as Latinos and Hispanics do not tend to vote in a singular bloc.[2][3] Factors such as age, location, income, sex, religion, ethnicity, education, and immigration status can all significantly influence voting factors among Hispanics and Latinos.[4]
History
The U.S. Census indicates that the Hispanic and Latino population of the U.S. is the fastest growing minority group in the country.[5] More than 12.8% of eligible voters nationwide are Hispanic or Latino.[6]
20th century
Prior to the 1950s, Hispanic political affiliation swayed back and forth between the two major parties. From the American Civil War to the Great Depression, the majority of American Hispanics, as well as the majority of African Americans, were Republicans. However, following the Great Depression, more Hispanics began to side with the Democratic party due to Franklin D. Roosevelt and his New Deal agenda. Many Hispanics were distrustful of Herbert Hoover and the Republican party, whom they viewed as responsible for the economic crash.[7]
American Hispanics first began to widely support a Republican candidate, Dwight D. Eisenhower, during the 1952 U.S. presidential election. Hispanic World War II veterans were drawn to support Eisenhower due to his service in the war, as well as the belief that he would be able to end the Korean war. Other non-veteran Hispanic voters were drawn to Eisenhower due to his promotion of hard work, freedom, prosperity, and religious spirituality. Hispanic conservatives created groups such as "Latinos con Eisenhower" and pinned political buttons on their shirts stating "Me Gusta Ike".[8]
In 1980, Republican Ben Fernandez became the first Hispanic ever to run for President of the United States.[9] Over the next decade, Ronald Reagan viewed Hispanic and Latino social values as closely related to conservative values, as both tended to place an emphasis on religious faith, family, and hard work. Additionally, both groups tended to maintain a strong opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage. Reagan often stated that "Hispanics are conservative. They just don’t know it.”[10]
A record 29 million Hispanics and Latinos were eligible to vote in the 2018 midterm elections, accounting for 12.8% of all eligible voters, a new high. They made up an estimated 11% of all voters nationwide on Election Day, nearly matching their share of the U.S. eligible voter population (U.S. citizens ages 18 and older).[11]
Although Latinos, as a whole, tend to support Democratic candidates, the Democratic Party has lost ground among their voting population since its high-water mark in 2012.[15]
In 2004, according to research by the Thomás Rivera Policy Institute, 58% of Hispanic and Latino voters self-identified as Democrats, while 22% identified as Republicans and 19% as Independents.[16]
In 2006, 69% of Latino voters supported Democratic candidates in congressional races, while 30% supported Republican candidates.
In 2008, 67% of Latinos voted for then-Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama, while 31% of Hispanics voted for then-Republican presidential nominee John McCain.[17]
During the 2010 midterm elections, 31% of eligible Hispanic and Latino voters turned out to vote.[18] 60% of Latinos supported Democratic candidates, while 38% of Latinos supported Republican candidates.[19]
A 2012 study by the Center for Immigration Studies projected that, in November 2012, Hispanics and Latinos would comprise 17.2% of the total U.S. population, 15% of adults, 11.2% of adult citizens, and 8.9% of voters. By comparison, the report found that, in 2012, non-Hispanic whites were expected to be 73.4% of the national vote and non-Hispanic blacks were expected to be 12.2%. The report noted that, by weight, "eight percentage points of the Hispanic vote nationally equals slightly less than one percentage point of the non-Hispanic white vote". The study also compared the 8.9% Latino share of voters to veterans (12% of the electorate), those with family incomes above $100,000 (18%), seniors 65 and older (19%), married persons (60%), and those who live in owner-occupied housing (80%).[20]
In terms of voter turnout, the Center for Studies projected that 52.7% (±0.6) of eligible Latinos would vote in the 2012 election, an increase from 49.9% in 2008 and a continuation of the past decade's long upward trend. The projected Latino voter participation rate was 52.7%, compared to 66.1% for non-Hispanic whites and 65.2% for non-Hispanic blacks in 2008.[20]
In 2012, 70% of Hispanic and Latino voters identified with, or leaned toward, the Democratic Party, while 20% of Hispanic voters identified with, or leaned toward, the Republican Party.[21]
In 2014, out of the 25 million eligible Hispanic voters, 27%, or 6.8 million, cast ballots ballots.[22]
During the 2016 presidential election, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump was supported by 57% of Cuban-American voters in Florida, while Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton received 40% of such vote[whose?].[23]
In 2018, 29.1 million Hispanics and Latinos were eligible to vote. 62% of Hispanic and Latino voters identified with, or leaned toward, the Democratic Party, whereas 27% of Hispanic voters identified with, or leaned toward, the Republican Party. Hispanic voters who primarily spoke English were more likely to support Republican candidates (33%), compared to voters who only spoke Spanish (15%).[24] In Florida, 66% of Cuban Americans supported Republican gubernatorial nominee Ron DeSantis, while only 33% supported Democratic gubernatorial nominee Andrew Gillum, a 2 to 1 ratio for Republicans.[23]
According to a 2019 Gallup Poll, 29% of Hispanics and Latinos identified as conservative, and that same number, 29%, voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 Presidential Election.[25]
In the 2022 U.S. House Elections, 39% of Hispanic voters backed Republican candidates and 60% backed Democratic candidates.[26] This marks a decline for Democrats from the 2020 election, where Biden won roughly 65% of Hispanic voters to Trump's 33%.
In an October 2010 Pew Hispanic Center report, Hispanics ranked education, jobs, and health care as their top three issues of concern, while immigration ranked as the fourth most important issue.[39]
In 2020, the economy, health care, and the COVID-19 pandemic were reported to be the top three most important issues for Hispanic voters.[40]
Economy
In 2022, economic issues remain the primary concern for Hispanic voters. In a Wall Street Journal poll, Hispanic men stated that Republicans possessed better economic policy, by a margin of 17 points, while Hispanic women stated that Democrats had better economic policy, by a 10-point margin.[41]
Gun Control
According to a 2022 Pew Research Center poll, 54% of Hispanic Republicans and conservative-leaning independents find it more important to protect gun ownership rights than to control gun ownership. In comparison, 83% of non-Hispanic Republicans hold the same belief.[42]
Gender-neutral terminology
The use of the gender-neutral term "Latinx" is highly unpopular among Hispanic and Latino voters, with over 90% disliking the term.[43] The term has been used by prominent Democratic politicians such as Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez; who have been widely mocked by many Republicans, Hispanics, and Latinos for its use.[44][45][46][47]
A 2021 poll found that 30% of Hispanic voters are less likely to vote for a politician who uses the term "Latinx". 68% of Hispanic voters prefer the term "Hispanic", while 21% of voters prefer the term "Latino". By comparison, only 2% of Hispanic voters embrace the term "Latinx". Furthermore, 40% of American Hispanics state that the term "Latinx" bothers or offends them.[48][49]
Immigration
Hispanic voters who are immigrants or the children of immigrants are more likely to vote for the Democratic Party, while Hispanic voters whose ancestors have lived in the United States for multiple generations are more likely to be split or vote for the Republican Party.[2][3]
The Hispanic vote is sometimes associated with immigration issues such as immigration reform, immigration enforcement, and amnesty for undocumented immigrants. However, immigration could be an issue no more important than unemployment or the economy for many Hispanic-American citizens.[50]
Dr. Jose Celso Barbosa - physician, sociologist and political leader. First Puerto Rican to receive a medical degree in the United States. Founder of the Puerto Rican Republican Party.
Rafael Diaz-Balart - Cuban politician during the government of Fulgencio Batista, he formed an anti-Castro organization in 1959 and later moved to Spain and finally America.
Manuel Artime - Anti-Castro activist, he raised money for the defense of the Watergate defendants.
↑ CBS News/New York Times interviews with 12,782 voters as they left the polls, as reported in The New York Times, November 9, 1980, p. 28, and in further analysis. The 1976 data are from CBS News interviews.
↑ Statistics were obtained from CNN’s Election 2010 website and are based on the Edison Research’s national and state exit poll surveys of voters as reported on December 30, 2010.
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